Bitcoin’s recovery hit a familiar wall as macro tailwinds weakened. The largest cryptocurrency rose on Wednesday after US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled concern about stubborn inflation, a backdrop that can briefly lift risk assets. But traders are increasingly cautious that the same environment will also keep pressure on non-yielding assets like crypto.

The immediate setup remains complicated by two linked forces: persistent outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and a market shift toward higher returns in fixed income, amplified by a strengthening US dollar. In practice, that combination tends to make investors less inclined to park money in assets that don’t generate yield.

Key takeaways

• Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, combined with rising Treasury yields, lower the odds of a quick rebound toward $65,000.
• Higher fixed-income returns and a stronger US dollar typically disadvantage non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and gold.
• US government bond futures implied a significantly greater likelihood of rate hikes by September, up sharply from a month earlier.
• AI-led equity momentum has supported broader risk appetite, but sector-specific semiconductor weakness could still change the tone.

Treasury yields rise as “real” competition for capital returns

While Bitcoin reacted positively to Warsh’s remarks, the broader trading backdrop turned less forgiving. The US 5-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.22%, signaling that investors demanded higher compensation to hold government debt. That matters for Bitcoin because the yield cycle is a direct competitor for fresh capital: when risk-free yields move higher, the opportunity cost of holding assets without a cash yield typically increases.

At the same time, WTI crude oil fell to a four-month low, and market expectations still anticipate changes to monetary policy as inflation eventually cools. However, traders are also paying close attention to the mechanics of US Treasury issuance, which helps shape how debt markets price interest rates—regardless of how the Federal Reserve balances policy tools over time.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, US government bond futures implied roughly 64% odds of interest rate hikes by September. That compares with about 23% one month prior, suggesting the market has already repriced the near-term rate path toward tightening.

Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened against other major fiat currencies. The effect can be particularly uncomfortable for global hedges priced in dollars—an issue that has also weighed on gold in recent months. TradingView charts highlighted the contrast between gold/USD weakness and rising DXY strength, with gold down about 12% over two months.

Why ETF flows still matter more than the “one-day” bounce

Bitcoin’s Wednesday gains didn’t fix the bigger positioning problem. Ongoing outflows from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to undercut the bullish case, according to earlier coverage from Cointelegraph that cited ETF flow deterioration.

In Wednesday’s broader narrative, the sales appear persistent rather than isolated. SoSoValue data referenced in the source shows daily net flows remaining pressured, and the article’s framing emphasized how negative headlines tend to amplify selling while positive developments struggle to attract fresh buying. For traders, this creates a classic asymmetry: rallies can fade quickly if incremental buyers are not replacing sellers in size.

Bitcoin is also trading materially below its all-time high—about 53% down, per the source—leaving traders cautious about the reliability of nearby support levels around the $60,000 region. Without a clear shift in ETF demand or macro conditions, the market can struggle to sustain the momentum needed for higher price targets.

AI enthusiasm is helping equities—yet semiconductors signal risk

One reason investors remain active is that parts of the equity market have been strong. The source pointed to about 25% gains in the Nasdaq 100 index, attributing some resilience to AI sector earnings momentum. That’s important because Bitcoin often benefits when investors seek higher-beta exposure during periods of improved growth confidence.

However, the story isn’t uniformly bullish. The source highlighted that Micron (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK) shares fell sharply intraday after competitors SK Hynix and Samsung announced plans to expand capacity. While that single move is not presented as a full reversal, it does underscore how quickly expectations can change for AI-adjacent hardware—especially when capacity expansion raises concerns about supply and pricing dynamics.

Even so, the article noted that the iShares SOX Semiconductor Index ETF (SOXX) was still up strongly over the last three months, suggesting that any weakness may be more sector-specific than a broad collapse in chip sentiment.

For Bitcoin, the implication is nuanced: AI-driven equity momentum may continue to provide a floor for risk appetite, but sector-level disappointments can still become catalysts that shift traders back toward “safer” positioning—particularly when rates expectations are rising.

Can Bitcoin reach $65,000 without changing the rate narrative?

The question for the market is not whether Bitcoin can bounce at all, but whether it can do so sustainably. The source argues that the temporary lift tied to Warsh’s inflation concerns may not be enough if expectations for higher interest rates remain elevated and fixed-income competition continues to intensify.

That view aligns with how the market has repriced the odds of policy changes. With FedWatch indicating a much higher probability of rate hikes by September than a month earlier, investors may be less willing to chase a rally in assets like Bitcoin that do not provide yield.

In this environment, the $65,000 area becomes a tougher target: it likely requires either a meaningful shift in ETF flow dynamics or a clearer easing in the rate-and-dollar backdrop. Until then, the source suggests that any rebound may take longer than bulls would prefer, even if periodic positive news sparks short-lived optimism.

Going forward, traders should watch two signals closely: whether spot Bitcoin ETF flows improve enough to counterbalance broader macro pressure, and whether Treasury yields and the US dollar begin to cool. If both stay firm, rallies may remain vulnerable; if either breaks, Bitcoin’s odds of sustaining higher levels improve.

Bitcoin (BTC) has delivered a key trend change setup in the latest sign that the macro downtrend could soon reverse.

Key points:

• Bitcoin is seeing its first “perfected” TD9 indicator downtrend setup on monthly time frames since mid-2022.
• While not a “buy signal” on its own, the move marks a key inflection phase in the bear market, analysis suggests.
• RSI divergences continue to gain sway among those eyeing the final stages of the 2026 market downturn.

BTC price “perfected” TD9 setup echoes final bear-market stages

In an X post on Tuesday, analyst Tony Severino flagged a “perfected” buy signal on the TD9 indicator.

TD9 is a derivative of the Tom DeMark Sequential market timing indicator, which alerts traders to potential trend changes. Here, price triggers a notable signal when nine candles in a row close higher (in an uptrend) or lower (in a downtrend) than the closing price four candles prior.

“Bitcoin has ‘perfected’ a TD9 buy setup on the monthly,” Severino commented alongside data from TradingView.

BTC/USD one-month chart with TD9 indicator data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The setup is Bitcoin’s first in several years on monthly time frames, with the last TD9 downtrend signal coming in July 2022.

At the time, BTC/USD spent another five months ironing out its bear-market bottom, and as Severino notes, a completed TD9 setup does not “necessarily mean that the bottom is in.”

“Not a buy signal by itself. But if it holds into the close, it’s the kind of thing you pay attention to,” Tony Carrera, host of the Proof of Pain podcast, wrote in a further X post. 

“TD 9s are where you stop chasing fear, zoom out, and ask: Is this where $BTC reminds everyone what happens when they think it’s dead?”

RSI divergences spark “good odds” for Bitcoin’s bullish comeback

As Cointelegraph reported, consensus among market participants still favors new macro lows coming before the bear market truly reverses.

Related: Bitcoin just $5K away from ‘best investment opportunity’ of bear market

Targets differ, with $55,000 now popular, while BTC price cycle comparisons put the current bear market at just over two-thirds complete.

By contrast, bullish divergences across multiple time frames are locking in on the relative strength index (RSI) — a classic hint that trend change is due.

“Not sure I have ever seen more confirmed and potential bullish divergence with oversold RSI on more time frames, ever,” trader, analyst and podcast host Scott Melker told X followers on Wednesday. 

“Divs building over multiple time frames is my favorite signal. Good odds.”

BTC/USD one-day chart with four-hour, one-day, one-week RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Robinhood has moved its blockchain testing effort into the public spotlight, announcing that its Robinhood Chain layer 2 network has launched its public mainnet. The rollout follows an earlier testnet launch in February, meaning the company ran roughly four months of testing before going live.

In its announcement on Wednesday, Robinhood said the chain—built on Arbitrum—positions itself as “AI-native” and designed to support tokenized real-world assets. The move comes as the brokerage and crypto platform broadens its on-chain ambitions alongside new and existing offerings for crypto, tokenized stocks, and decentralized finance within its wallet ecosystem.

Key takeaways

• Robinhood Chain’s public mainnet launched after testnet activity began in February, following about four months of preparation.
• The layer 2 network is built on Arbitrum and is marketed as “AI-native” and intended for real-world asset tokenization.
• Robinhood says tokenized stock products are already live in its wallet app across more than 120 countries, and it plans to add crypto trading in the UK soon.
• New decentralized lending functionality, Robinhood Earn, lets users lend USDG stablecoins from a self-custody wallet at an estimated ~7% annual yield.
• Competition among Ethereum layer 2 networks remains intense, with major ecosystems such as Base drawing attention for recent reliability incidents.

From testnet to public mainnet for Robinhood Chain

Robinhood’s blockchain strategy is now taking a concrete form with the mainnet launch of Robinhood Chain. According to the company, the network went live on testnet in February and has now been promoted to a public mainnet stage.

The chain is an Arbitrum-based L2, an architectural choice that links Robinhood’s development to a well-established ecosystem for scaling and on-chain throughput. Robinhood’s messaging around the network centers on its intended use for tokenized real-world assets, a theme that continues to anchor much of the platform’s tokenization efforts.

Notably, the mainnet launch is happening as Robinhood pushes further into both tokenized securities and DeFi products—two areas that require careful execution because they touch user protections, custody models, and compliance requirements.

Tokenized stocks, wallet access, and a UK crypto push

Alongside the mainnet news, Robinhood reiterated that its tokenized stock products are already operational. The company said these products are available through its wallet app to users in more than 120 countries.

Robinhood also disclosed plans to launch crypto trading in the United Kingdom “soon.” While the announcement does not provide an additional timeline beyond that phrasing, it signals that Robinhood’s on-chain expansion is not only about infrastructure, but also about expanding the accessibility of crypto services geographically.

Earlier this year, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev argued that tokenized stocks are “inevitable,” and he tied the rationale to potential market-structure benefits—specifically, the idea that tokenization could help reduce the risk of trading freezes that can occur on traditional exchanges. That perspective sets a clear policy narrative for the company’s product direction, even as regulators and market operators continue to shape the rules around tokenized assets.

Robinhood Earn: lending USDG from self-custody

Robinhood also introduced a decentralized product called Robinhood Earn. The feature is designed to let users lend USDG, a dollar-backed stablecoin, via a self-custody wallet experience.

Robinhood’s announcement places an estimated annual percentage yield of around 7% on the lending activity. For users, the practical change is the shift from keeping assets entirely within custodial frameworks toward a model that emphasizes self-custody while still providing access to yield through on-chain lending mechanics.

For builders and traders watching Robinhood’s L2 ambitions, the key point is that the mainnet launch is paired with a DeFi component rather than being purely infrastructural. This could influence how quickly liquidity and user activity form around the chain, especially if tokenized stock rails and stablecoin lending become tightly integrated.

A crowded L2 landscape—and a reminder on reliability

Robinhood Chain is entering an increasingly competitive layer 2 market. One of the most prominent incumbents in the segment is Base, the Coinbase-backed blockchain, which has expanded rapidly in recent periods.

Reliability has become a major differentiator across L2 networks. In June, Cointelegraph reported that Base suffered two outages within hours of each other. The engineering team later said a sequencer bug caused the incidents. Cointelegraph also noted that Base is the second-largest layer 2 network by total value secured, at about $11 billion, underscoring how large networks can still face operational issues.

Against that backdrop, Robinhood’s decision to launch a public mainnet after a testnet period may be interpreted as an attempt to ensure readiness before broadening usage. Still, the real test for any L2 network is post-mainnet stability—especially if Robinhood’s tokenized stocks and DeFi products rely on uninterrupted chain performance.

Robinhood shares rose about 8% on Wednesday following the announcement. For crypto participants and investors, the next watch item is straightforward: whether Robinhood Chain can sustain stable operation under real user load, and how quickly usage grows as tokenized stock rails, USDG lending via Robinhood Earn, and broader regional availability (including the planned UK crypto trading) come online.

Venga obtains a MiCA license from Spain’s CNMV, which lets the Barcelona crypto firm operate under the EU’s new regulatory framework.

Venga has received authorization from Spain’s Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores to operate as a Crypto-Asset Service Provider under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation. The Barcelona-based company announced the approval on July 1, 2026. The Venga MiCA license allows the firm to provide regulated crypto-asset services under the EU’s new framework.

Venga MiCA license marks regulatory milestone

The authorization places Venga among a limited group of crypto firms approved under MiCA. The company, founded in Barcelona in 2023, said the approval follows nearly two years of work across its business.

“Obtaining the MiCA license is a major milestone for Venga and the result of nearly two years of work across every area of the business,” said Michael Stroev, co-founder and CEO of Venga. He said the process required investment in governance, compliance, security, reporting systems, and operational processes.

Spain’s CNMV granted the authorization as the European crypto market moves into a new phase of oversight. MiCA sets common rules for crypto-asset service providers. These rules cover governance, capital adequacy, operational resilience, cybersecurity, risk management, customer protection, and internal controls.

The license also gives Venga a route to passport its services across the European Union. The company can expand beyond Spain while operating under one regulatory framework.

MiCA authorization changes market standards

MiCA represents a broad regulatory reset for crypto assets in the European Union. The framework moves the sector away from earlier national registration systems. It requires companies to meet operating and supervision standards.

The transition period is ending on July 1. Crypto companies that relied on older national registrations must secure MiCA authorization or stop offering regulated crypto-asset services within the European Union. The change may force some providers to suspend activities, transfer clients, or leave certain European markets.

A report by crypto.news showed that more than 3,000 crypto firms were registered across the European Union before MiCA took effect. About 194 firms had secured MiCA authorization as of May 2026. That gap points to a smaller authorized market under the new rules.

The approval comes during consolidation in the European crypto sector. Firms that meet MiCA standards can operate under ongoing supervision. Firms that do not receive approval face limits on their ability to serve EU customers.

oversight expands for crypto-asset service providers

Authorized providers under MiCA face continuous regulatory duties. These include supervisory obligations, periodic reporting, annual audits, and oversight by national authorities. Those authorities apply standards coordinated by the European Securities and Markets Authority.

“For users, MiCA introduces a level of regulatory accountability that has not previously existed across much of the European crypto sector,” Stroev said. He added that authorization is not a one-time event and that licensed firms must continue to meet operational, financial, and customer protection requirements.

The new structure may change how users assess crypto platforms. Under MiCA, users can check whether a provider has authorization under the EU framework. That status shows whether the firm must follow the required safeguards and reporting rules.

Venga said the authorization confirms that it has built its business for the regulatory framework that will define the future of crypto services in Europe. The company aims to make digital assets accessible through a regulated platform available in Spanish, Catalan, and English.