Bitcoin (BTC) has delivered a key trend change setup in the latest sign that the macro downtrend could soon reverse.

Key points:

• Bitcoin is seeing its first “perfected” TD9 indicator downtrend setup on monthly time frames since mid-2022.
• While not a “buy signal” on its own, the move marks a key inflection phase in the bear market, analysis suggests.
• RSI divergences continue to gain sway among those eyeing the final stages of the 2026 market downturn.

BTC price “perfected” TD9 setup echoes final bear-market stages

In an X post on Tuesday, analyst Tony Severino flagged a “perfected” buy signal on the TD9 indicator.

TD9 is a derivative of the Tom DeMark Sequential market timing indicator, which alerts traders to potential trend changes. Here, price triggers a notable signal when nine candles in a row close higher (in an uptrend) or lower (in a downtrend) than the closing price four candles prior.

“Bitcoin has ‘perfected’ a TD9 buy setup on the monthly,” Severino commented alongside data from TradingView.

BTC/USD one-month chart with TD9 indicator data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The setup is Bitcoin’s first in several years on monthly time frames, with the last TD9 downtrend signal coming in July 2022.

At the time, BTC/USD spent another five months ironing out its bear-market bottom, and as Severino notes, a completed TD9 setup does not “necessarily mean that the bottom is in.”

“Not a buy signal by itself. But if it holds into the close, it’s the kind of thing you pay attention to,” Tony Carrera, host of the Proof of Pain podcast, wrote in a further X post. 

“TD 9s are where you stop chasing fear, zoom out, and ask: Is this where $BTC reminds everyone what happens when they think it’s dead?”

RSI divergences spark “good odds” for Bitcoin’s bullish comeback

As Cointelegraph reported, consensus among market participants still favors new macro lows coming before the bear market truly reverses.

Related: Bitcoin just $5K away from ‘best investment opportunity’ of bear market

Targets differ, with $55,000 now popular, while BTC price cycle comparisons put the current bear market at just over two-thirds complete.

By contrast, bullish divergences across multiple time frames are locking in on the relative strength index (RSI) — a classic hint that trend change is due.

“Not sure I have ever seen more confirmed and potential bullish divergence with oversold RSI on more time frames, ever,” trader, analyst and podcast host Scott Melker told X followers on Wednesday. 

“Divs building over multiple time frames is my favorite signal. Good odds.”

BTC/USD one-day chart with four-hour, one-day, one-week RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Robinhood has moved its blockchain testing effort into the public spotlight, announcing that its Robinhood Chain layer 2 network has launched its public mainnet. The rollout follows an earlier testnet launch in February, meaning the company ran roughly four months of testing before going live.

In its announcement on Wednesday, Robinhood said the chain—built on Arbitrum—positions itself as “AI-native” and designed to support tokenized real-world assets. The move comes as the brokerage and crypto platform broadens its on-chain ambitions alongside new and existing offerings for crypto, tokenized stocks, and decentralized finance within its wallet ecosystem.

Key takeaways

• Robinhood Chain’s public mainnet launched after testnet activity began in February, following about four months of preparation.
• The layer 2 network is built on Arbitrum and is marketed as “AI-native” and intended for real-world asset tokenization.
• Robinhood says tokenized stock products are already live in its wallet app across more than 120 countries, and it plans to add crypto trading in the UK soon.
• New decentralized lending functionality, Robinhood Earn, lets users lend USDG stablecoins from a self-custody wallet at an estimated ~7% annual yield.
• Competition among Ethereum layer 2 networks remains intense, with major ecosystems such as Base drawing attention for recent reliability incidents.

From testnet to public mainnet for Robinhood Chain

Robinhood’s blockchain strategy is now taking a concrete form with the mainnet launch of Robinhood Chain. According to the company, the network went live on testnet in February and has now been promoted to a public mainnet stage.

The chain is an Arbitrum-based L2, an architectural choice that links Robinhood’s development to a well-established ecosystem for scaling and on-chain throughput. Robinhood’s messaging around the network centers on its intended use for tokenized real-world assets, a theme that continues to anchor much of the platform’s tokenization efforts.

Notably, the mainnet launch is happening as Robinhood pushes further into both tokenized securities and DeFi products—two areas that require careful execution because they touch user protections, custody models, and compliance requirements.

Tokenized stocks, wallet access, and a UK crypto push

Alongside the mainnet news, Robinhood reiterated that its tokenized stock products are already operational. The company said these products are available through its wallet app to users in more than 120 countries.

Robinhood also disclosed plans to launch crypto trading in the United Kingdom “soon.” While the announcement does not provide an additional timeline beyond that phrasing, it signals that Robinhood’s on-chain expansion is not only about infrastructure, but also about expanding the accessibility of crypto services geographically.

Earlier this year, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev argued that tokenized stocks are “inevitable,” and he tied the rationale to potential market-structure benefits—specifically, the idea that tokenization could help reduce the risk of trading freezes that can occur on traditional exchanges. That perspective sets a clear policy narrative for the company’s product direction, even as regulators and market operators continue to shape the rules around tokenized assets.

Robinhood Earn: lending USDG from self-custody

Robinhood also introduced a decentralized product called Robinhood Earn. The feature is designed to let users lend USDG, a dollar-backed stablecoin, via a self-custody wallet experience.

Robinhood’s announcement places an estimated annual percentage yield of around 7% on the lending activity. For users, the practical change is the shift from keeping assets entirely within custodial frameworks toward a model that emphasizes self-custody while still providing access to yield through on-chain lending mechanics.

For builders and traders watching Robinhood’s L2 ambitions, the key point is that the mainnet launch is paired with a DeFi component rather than being purely infrastructural. This could influence how quickly liquidity and user activity form around the chain, especially if tokenized stock rails and stablecoin lending become tightly integrated.

A crowded L2 landscape—and a reminder on reliability

Robinhood Chain is entering an increasingly competitive layer 2 market. One of the most prominent incumbents in the segment is Base, the Coinbase-backed blockchain, which has expanded rapidly in recent periods.

Reliability has become a major differentiator across L2 networks. In June, Cointelegraph reported that Base suffered two outages within hours of each other. The engineering team later said a sequencer bug caused the incidents. Cointelegraph also noted that Base is the second-largest layer 2 network by total value secured, at about $11 billion, underscoring how large networks can still face operational issues.

Against that backdrop, Robinhood’s decision to launch a public mainnet after a testnet period may be interpreted as an attempt to ensure readiness before broadening usage. Still, the real test for any L2 network is post-mainnet stability—especially if Robinhood’s tokenized stocks and DeFi products rely on uninterrupted chain performance.

Robinhood shares rose about 8% on Wednesday following the announcement. For crypto participants and investors, the next watch item is straightforward: whether Robinhood Chain can sustain stable operation under real user load, and how quickly usage grows as tokenized stock rails, USDG lending via Robinhood Earn, and broader regional availability (including the planned UK crypto trading) come online.

Venga obtains a MiCA license from Spain’s CNMV, which lets the Barcelona crypto firm operate under the EU’s new regulatory framework.

Venga has received authorization from Spain’s Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores to operate as a Crypto-Asset Service Provider under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation. The Barcelona-based company announced the approval on July 1, 2026. The Venga MiCA license allows the firm to provide regulated crypto-asset services under the EU’s new framework.

Venga MiCA license marks regulatory milestone

The authorization places Venga among a limited group of crypto firms approved under MiCA. The company, founded in Barcelona in 2023, said the approval follows nearly two years of work across its business.

“Obtaining the MiCA license is a major milestone for Venga and the result of nearly two years of work across every area of the business,” said Michael Stroev, co-founder and CEO of Venga. He said the process required investment in governance, compliance, security, reporting systems, and operational processes.

Spain’s CNMV granted the authorization as the European crypto market moves into a new phase of oversight. MiCA sets common rules for crypto-asset service providers. These rules cover governance, capital adequacy, operational resilience, cybersecurity, risk management, customer protection, and internal controls.

The license also gives Venga a route to passport its services across the European Union. The company can expand beyond Spain while operating under one regulatory framework.

MiCA authorization changes market standards

MiCA represents a broad regulatory reset for crypto assets in the European Union. The framework moves the sector away from earlier national registration systems. It requires companies to meet operating and supervision standards.

The transition period is ending on July 1. Crypto companies that relied on older national registrations must secure MiCA authorization or stop offering regulated crypto-asset services within the European Union. The change may force some providers to suspend activities, transfer clients, or leave certain European markets.

A report by crypto.news showed that more than 3,000 crypto firms were registered across the European Union before MiCA took effect. About 194 firms had secured MiCA authorization as of May 2026. That gap points to a smaller authorized market under the new rules.

The approval comes during consolidation in the European crypto sector. Firms that meet MiCA standards can operate under ongoing supervision. Firms that do not receive approval face limits on their ability to serve EU customers.

oversight expands for crypto-asset service providers

Authorized providers under MiCA face continuous regulatory duties. These include supervisory obligations, periodic reporting, annual audits, and oversight by national authorities. Those authorities apply standards coordinated by the European Securities and Markets Authority.

“For users, MiCA introduces a level of regulatory accountability that has not previously existed across much of the European crypto sector,” Stroev said. He added that authorization is not a one-time event and that licensed firms must continue to meet operational, financial, and customer protection requirements.

The new structure may change how users assess crypto platforms. Under MiCA, users can check whether a provider has authorization under the EU framework. That status shows whether the firm must follow the required safeguards and reporting rules.

Venga said the authorization confirms that it has built its business for the regulatory framework that will define the future of crypto services in Europe. The company aims to make digital assets accessible through a regulated platform available in Spanish, Catalan, and English.

Key Takeaways

• Tesla shares have climbed 10.8% this week in advance of Thursday’s Q2 delivery figures
• Analyst projections for Q2 deliveries span from 400,000 to 466,000 vehicles
• Last year’s Q2 saw 384,000 vehicles sold, meaning all current forecasts indicate positive year-over-year growth
• The elimination of the $7,500 federal EV subsidy has created headwinds, though rising gasoline prices have provided some relief
• Deutsche Bank maintained its Buy recommendation; overall analyst sentiment remains Hold with a $403.07 mean price objective

Tesla shares are changing hands at $427.74 as of Wednesday, marking a 1.7% daily increase and a robust 10.8% weekly advance, with market participants strategically positioning themselves before Thursday’s Q2 delivery announcement.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

The delivery figure represents the critical data point. Analyst expectations display an unusually wide range — FactSet’s consensus hovers around 409,000 units, Bloomberg’s compilation averages closer to 400,000, and Tesla’s aggregated consensus settles near 406,000. On the optimistic extreme, forecaster Troy Teslike anticipates 466,000 deliveries. Future Fund’s Gary Black projects 420,000.

Last year’s Q2 saw Tesla deliver 384,000 vehicles, meaning every current projection indicates positive year-over-year expansion.

Should these estimates prove accurate, Tesla would achieve its second consecutive quarter of year-over-year delivery increases. The automaker hasn’t recorded consecutive quarterly delivery growth since 2024. Annual deliveries reached their zenith at approximately 1.8 million in 2023, before contracting in both 2024 and 2025.

Headwinds and Tailwinds

The September elimination of the $7,500 federal EV purchase subsidy reduced affordability for American consumers and created demand challenges. Tesla additionally opted against introducing a more affordable mass-market electric vehicle, concentrating resources on the Cybercab autonomous taxi initiative instead.

Conversely, gasoline prices surged to approximately $4.60 per gallon in May — an increase of roughly $1.60 — following conflict in Iran that disrupted worldwide oil markets. Elevated fuel costs typically incentivize consumers toward electric vehicle adoption.

The stock’s 10.8% weekly surge indicates the market has already incorporated expectations of a favorable outcome. Industry watchers suggest Tesla would probably require deliveries around 420,000 or above to sustain this upward trajectory. A figure approaching 466,000 would likely propel shares even higher.

Entering 2026, Tesla remains approximately 6% lower year-to-date, notwithstanding the recent rally.

Wall Street Ratings and Financial Performance

Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its Buy stance on Tesla this Tuesday. The broader analyst community displays more reserved sentiment — 21 analysts assign it Buy ratings, 20 assign Hold ratings, and four maintain Sell recommendations. The consensus price objective stands at $403.07, modestly beneath current trading levels.

In its latest quarterly financial release, Tesla reported earnings per share of $0.41, surpassing the $0.39 consensus forecast. Revenue totaled $22.39 billion, marginally below the $22.96 billion projection but representing a 15.8% year-over-year increase.

Wedbush maintains the Street’s most bullish price target at $600.

Insider activity has trended toward selling. CFO Vaibhav Taneja divested approximately 2,600 shares in early June at $402.20 per share. Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson decreased her holdings by 35% in late April. Collectively, insiders have liquidated approximately $12.4 million in stock during the past 90 days.

Institutional ownership comprises 66.2%, with multiple funds expanding their positions in recent quarters.

The Q2 delivery announcement arrives Thursday morning.