Europe’s securities regulator has warned that prediction market contracts offered in the European Union could already fall under existing financial rules, potentially triggering a long-standing retail ban on binary options.

According to the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), firms offering event-based contracts in the European Union must assess whether those products qualify as financial instruments under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II). If they do, the regulator said, the EU’s retail restrictions on binary options introduced in 2018 would automatically apply.

The July 3 statement does not introduce new legislation. Instead, ESMA clarified that the existing regulatory framework may already cover some prediction market products currently being marketed in Europe. The guidance is directed both at firms and national regulators responsible for supervising financial markets across the bloc.

Existing MiFID II rules could already apply

Under ESMA’s interpretation, companies cannot simply describe contracts as prediction markets or event contracts without considering whether they meet the legal definition of a financial instrument under MiFID II. Where that threshold is met, the binary options restrictions adopted by the regulator in 2018 would take effect without any additional rulemaking.

The clarification arrives as offshore prediction market operators continue drawing regulatory attention across multiple jurisdictions. Among the largest providers, Polymarket operates from offshore markets, while Kalshi and Crypto.com are regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the United States. None of the major platforms currently operates a licensed prediction market business within the European Union.

The regulatory update also follows recent scrutiny surrounding Polymarket. The platform was recently accused of using deceptive advertising that targeted U.S. users, adding to regulatory pressure already facing prediction market operators in several countries.

European scrutiny has intensified across multiple countries

Before ESMA issued its clarification, several European authorities had already taken action against prediction market platforms.

Spain’s Ministry of Consumer Affairs temporarily blocked Kalshi and Polymarket on May 26 after determining that the platforms did not hold the gambling licenses required under Spanish law.

A few weeks later, on June 19, gambling regulators from nine European countries, including Belgium, France, Germany and Spain, issued a joint statement warning consumers about unlicensed gambling websites operating across Europe. According to the participating authorities, those platforms raised consumer protection concerns ahead of the FIFA World Cup.

Outside Europe, legal challenges have also continued. Last month, the Kentucky government filed a lawsuit against Polymarket and Kalshi, alleging the platforms were facilitating illegal sports betting within the state.

Against that backdrop, ESMA’s latest statement places fresh responsibility on firms considering expansion into the European market. According to the regulator, companies must determine not only whether their contracts qualify as financial instruments under MiFID II, but also whether national laws classify those products as gambling activities.

Because no major prediction market operator currently runs a licensed European business, ESMA’s clarification comes before any large-scale launch rather than after one.

Firms that fail to address both financial market rules and national gambling requirements could face enforcement action similar to the measures already taken by Spanish authorities, based on the regulator’s guidance and recent actions by national authorities.

Bitcoin (BTC) has added another bear-market bottom signal this month as analysis draws comparisons to November 2022.

Key points:

• Bitcoin adds to its list of bear-market bottom signals with a key supply ratio “buy” trigger.
• A bear-market floor could still be some time off, analysis says, with supply held at a loss still relatively low.
• Demand is the missing piece of the puzzle to shore up a bullish rebound.

Bitcoin profit metric echoes 2022 bear-market bottom zone

In a blog post on Friday, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, confirmed the return of a key Bitcoin buy signal.

Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio, which measures the proportion of the BTC supply which last moved in profit or loss, is back in negative territory for the first time in nearly four years.

“The ratio dropped into deeply negative territory and then crossed back above the signal threshold on the rebound, which caused the model to print BUY on several sessions in late June and early July,” Adler wrote. 

“This is the first buy trigger since November 2022, which was the bottom of the previous bear cycle.”

Bitcoin Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

UTXO Supply Ratio cues do not imply that a macro bottom has arrived, but occur “near cyclical lows.”

“Confirmation would be the ratio holding above zero together with rising price. The negative scenario is a move back into negative territory without price support,” Adler explained.

A missing piece of the puzzle involves supply being held at a loss, which has not yet reached the levels seen during previous bear markets.

Adler forecast that the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of supply in loss should hit its bear-market reversal target within two months.

“Until then, it is more accurate to treat capitulation as a process rather than a completed fact,” he continued.

Bitcoin supply in loss. Source: CryptoQuant

Signals will not “stop BTC from going lower”

On the topic of UTXO Supply, fellow CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost also eyed a potential market inflection point this week.

Related: Bitcoin bear market ‘dead’ after first TD9 reversal signal since July 2022 fires

“Since it depends on the profit and loss of UTXOs, it can very well signal something during either a sharp drop or a sharp rise. That said, in terms of cyclicality, it wouldn’t be inconsistent to think that the end of this bear market could be approaching,” he wrote in a Quicktake blog post on Wednesday. 

“This won’t stop BTC from going lower, but we now have several signals pointing to seller exhaustion. The next step is a renewal of demand, and that could take some time.”

As Cointelegraph reported, BTC price expectations tend to favor a bear-market bottom coming in Q3 or later.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, one of the US lawmakers behind negotiations for a digital asset market structure bill in Congress, has proposed barring elected officials and the president from issuing or sponsoring their own tokens, citing President Donald Trump’s and First Lady Melania Trump’s memecoins.

In a Friday notice, Gillibrand said that Congress should support measures barring elected officials and their spouses from “issuing or sponsoring their own digital assets.” The New York lawmaker said that the proposed restriction would include any US president and their spouse, but did not specifically mention extending the provision to the office of the vice president or other members of their families. 

“This is a commonsense requirement that should get broad bipartisan support – public officials and their spouses should not be issuing memecoins,” said Gillibrand. “We cannot let self-dealing destroy an opportunity to strengthen consumer protections, crack down on illicit finance, and expand economic opportunity for the millions of Americans our financial system has left behind.”

Source: Kirsten Gillibrand

Gillibrand is one of the lawmakers behind negotiations regarding the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act in the Senate, legislation which has faced delays due to concerns about ethics, tokenization and stablecoin rewards. Although she expected the chamber to vote on the bill by the Senate’s August state work period, she added that no one would vote for the bill without addressing ethics, citing the potential of elected officials “[getting] rich off of these industries because of their insider status.”

Related: Senate Dems urge probe into $500M crypto deal between Trumps, UAE 

During consideration of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act) in 2025, the New York lawmaker said senators had removed provisions specifically targeting Trump’s ties to the crypto industry, including his memecoin Official Trump (TRUMP). 

She said at the time that the memecoin was likely “illegal based on current law,” but addressing all of Trump’s ethics problems would make for a “very long and detailed bill.” Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law in July 2025.

Notably, Gillibrand’s proposed memecoin restriction did not appear to extend to other family members. In addition to his personal investments in the crypto industry, Trump has faced criticism over his sons’ involvement in the crypto platform World Liberty Financial and their Bitcoin (BTC) mining company American Bitcoin.

Trump brushes off conflicts of interest concerns with crypto industry

This week, Trump reported that he earned about $1.4 billion from crypto ventures the same year he took office. The financial windfall occurred while he was in a position to influence legislation on digital assets, including the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act.

According to Trump, there was “nothing illegal” and “nothing wrong” with profiting from his investments as president, while he did not directly answer questions about perceived conflicts of interest.

Magazine: The end of anonymity? AI could unmask crypto’s hidden identities

TLDR:

• Jupiter Trailing Stop Loss uses percentage-based triggers instead of fixed stop prices for limit orders.
• The stop level rises with price gains and never moves lower during an active trading position.
• The feature supports SPL and Token-2022 assets, excluding transfer-fee token standards only.
• SolanaFloor highlighted the launch after Jupiter confirmed zero extra fees for the new trading tool.

Jupiter has introduced a new Trailing Stop Loss feature for its Limit Orders, giving traders a way to protect gains as prices climb. The update replaces fixed stop prices with a dynamic percentage trail that adjusts upward alongside market moves. 

The feature aims to reduce the risk of profitable positions turning into losses during sharp reversals. It expands Jupiter’s trading toolkit while keeping the existing limit order experience intact.

Jupiter Trailing Stop Loss Adds Dynamic Protection to Limit Orders

The new feature allows users to set a percentage trail instead of a fixed stop price. Traders can choose any value between 0.5% and 90%. The stop level automatically moves higher whenever the asset reaches a new high.

The trigger does NOT move lower (downward) like a stop loss. This allows traders to stick to the trend when it is rising and still keep some of the profits they have yet to realize. When the market turns the other direction by the selected percentage, the order automatically fills.

Jupiter explained the update through its official X account using a simple trading example. A trader buying SOL at $50 could see the asset climb to $90. Instead of keeping the original stop at $45, the trailing mechanism would move the stop upward to about $81 before a reversal triggered a sale.

According to Jupiter, the feature works across all SPL tokens and Token-2022 assets except transfer-fee tokens. The exchange also said traders will not pay additional fees to use the new functionality within Limit Orders.

Jupiter Expands Solana Trading Tools With Automated Risk Management

The announcement first gained attention after SolanaFloor highlighted the launch on X. The publication noted that the feature focuses on protecting profits rather than only limiting downside risk. That distinction makes the tool different from conventional stop loss strategies.

Traditional stop losses remain fixed unless users manually adjust them. During fast rallies, traders often face the challenge of watching profitable positions return to their entry point or below. A trailing stop automates that adjustment without requiring repeated changes.

Jupiter described the feature as a way to prevent what traders often call “roundtripping.” Instead of allowing gains to disappear during a market reversal, the stop follows the asset higher until the selected percentage threshold is reached. 

The order then executes automatically according to the preset conditions. The rollout strengthens Jupiter’s growing suite of on-chain trading tools for the Solana ecosystem. 

The update offers traders another automated risk management option while maintaining compatibility with supported Solana token standards. The feature is now available through Jupiter Limit Orders without introducing extra trading fees.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw new July highs on Friday as bulls kept pushing over the US holiday period.

Key points:

• Bitcoin sustains upside momentum as BTC price action nears its 200-week moving average.
• That trend line now forms the centerpoint of a “strong resistance area.”
• Global equities hit record levels as Fed rate-hike odds simmer on weaker jobs data.

Bitcoin buyers “chasing” as BTC price eyes key trend line

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $62,295 on Bitstamp, its highest since June 24.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday, with the Dow Jones closing at record highs the day prior.  As noted by trading resource The Kobeissi Letter, the global stock market cap also hit new all-time highs.

“Global equities are in the midst of one of the most powerful rallies in history,” it wrote in a post on X.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Commenting on the latest BTC price action, X commentator Exitpump eyed “controlled slow buying” on exchanges.

“Looks good for continuation higher, although keeping in mind 62K – 62.5K as a strong resistance area,” they told X followers.

BTC/USD order-book data. Source: Exitpump/X

Trader Daan Crypto Trades focused on the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $62,652, for the weekly candle close.

“It is key for BTC now to hold this breakout and maintain its low timeframe bullish market structure,” he commented, calling the current trading zone “important.”

BTC/USDT perpetual contract one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Fed rate-hike headwinds slowly cool

On the back of weak US nonfarm payrolls data, which helped fuel the crypto rebound, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted that expectations for Federal Reserve policy remained conservative. 

Related: Bitcoin supply metric prints first ‘buy’ signal since late 2022 as bear market continues

“The knee-jerk reaction from investors was to push stock index futures higher, signaling a regime where bad economic news is good for stocks due to the impact on the rate outlook,” it wrote in its latest Mosaic Chart Alerts update.

Mosaic referred to interest-rate changes from the Fed, with potential hikes forming a headwind for crypto and risk assets.

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed roughly equal odds of a pause or hike at the Fed’s September meeting, with rates staying at current levels until then.

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group

“The reality is that the payrolls report reflects a “Goldilocks” figure for the average stock, which isn’t too cold to stoke growth fears and not too hot to pull additional rate hikes forward,” it summarized about the jobs figures.

“We truly don’t think there is large-scale, authentic usage of A7A5 outside of A7,” Keegan said in an email, referring to the token’s issuer. He added that transaction volumes routinely collapse on weekends because much of the activity appears tied to business-to-business transfers involving the Russia-linked exchange Grinex.

Meanwhile, Tom Robinson, co-founder of another blockchain analytics firm, Elliptic, also said the token has lost momentum. He said that monthly transaction volumes have fallen by more than 90% since January and are down 96% from their peak last year, following sanctions imposed by the U.S., the European Union and the United Kingdom, as well as the collapse of Grinex earlier this year.

“The cherry-picked trading and transaction figures provided by A7A5 are consistent with Elliptic’s analysis,” Robinson said. “However, they conceal the obvious trend: that A7A5 is failing in its goal of enabling Russian sanctions evasion.”

A7A5’s Ogienko denied these claims and said that because the token’s activity mostly takes place in DeFi, it is not fully captured by major crypto data sites. “These outdated principles and metrics do not provide users around the world with objective information about A7A5,” he told CoinDesk in a statement via Telegram.

He said data providers, including CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko and DeFiLlama rely too heavily on centralized exchange data, creating what he claimed “a generally discriminatory approach, contrary to the principles of the United Nations.”

Stablecoin newcomer Open USD (OUSD), hasn’t actually inked a deal with 149 companies, despite what it claimed when it launched this week.

OUSD was created by Open Standard, which claimed earlier this week that a consortium of firms had “signed up” to use it. 

The firm’s CEO, Zach Abrams, said, “We’re thrilled to bring together over 140 businesses to launch Open USD. It’s a stablecoin built for the internet economy, designed by the businesses growing it.”

However, the South Korean news outlet Chosun Biz reports that several of the South Korea-based firms listed haven’t actually signed up for anything. 

An official for Samsung Electronics told the outlet, “There were no official consultations, and we do not know what role we will play (in the alliance).”

For years, Michael Saylor’s Strategy built its brand around a simple mantra: Buy Bitcoin. Never sell. This week, that narrative changed.  

The company authorized up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales under a new capital framework. At current prices, that equates to roughly 21,000 BTC that could eventually hit the market — a reminder that even Bitcoin’s most committed corporate holder isn’t immune to the realities of capital management.

This week’s Crypto Biz explores how the digital asset industry is entering a more pragmatic phase, where ideological purity is giving way to financial discipline. It also examines the intensifying stablecoin race as issuers compete for reserve yield, Fidelity’s latest defense of Bitcoin’s long-term security model and the crypto industry’s growing political influence ahead of the 2026 US midterm elections.

Strategy authorizes $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales to fund dividends, buybacks

Strategy has authorized up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales under a new capital framework that will fund shareholder dividends, bolster cash reserves and repurchase stock while preserving its long-term Bitcoin strategy.

The company’s new “Digital Credit Capital Framework” raises the annual dividend on its STRC preferred stock from 11.5% to 12%, establishes a formal Bitcoin monetization program and expands capital return initiatives through buybacks of preferred securities and MSTR shares. Strategy also said its dedicated cash reserve has grown to $2.55 billion, enough to cover roughly 17 months of preferred dividends and interest payments.

The framework reflects an evolution in Strategy’s capital allocation. After years of insisting it would never sell Bitcoin, the company has now established a formal monetization program and disclosed selling 32 BTC in June. Strategy made no Bitcoin purchases last week, leaving its holdings unchanged at 847,363 BTC as it places greater emphasis on liquidity management alongside its Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

Source: Michael Saylor

Payments giants back new stablecoin to challenge USDT, USDC

More than 140 financial and crypto companies have joined forces to launch a new US dollar-backed stablecoin that lets participants retain the yield generated by its reserves, marking one of the industry’s biggest coordinated stablecoin initiatives to date.

The Open USD (OUSD) project is backed by major payments companies, including Visa and Mastercard, alongside crypto companies such as Coinbase, Ripple, OKX and Bybit. Unlike traditional stablecoin models, OUSD will allow businesses to mint tokens without fees or volume limits while keeping the reserve earnings — a feature supporters say could help the token gain market share from incumbents Tether’s USDt (USDT) and Circle’s USDC (USDC).

The launch comes as the US adopts a more favorable regulatory stance toward stablecoins following passage of the GENIUS Act. Open Standard plans to roll out OUSD later this year, entering a market already worth more than $300 billion that many analysts expect to expand rapidly over the rest of the decade.

Source: Open Standard

Fidelity says Bitcoin’s long-term security isn’t threatened by halving

Fidelity Digital Assets is pushing back against claims that Bitcoin’s long-term security will weaken as mining rewards decline, arguing that rising transaction fees, market incentives and Bitcoin’s price appreciation should continue to keep the network secure.

In a new research report, Fidelity said Bitcoin’s economic model extends beyond block subsidies, challenging the view that successive halving events will eventually undermine miners’ incentives. Research analyst Daniel Gray noted that although block rewards have steadily declined, average daily miner revenue has grown from $1.3 million between 2012-2016 to $40.2 million today. 

The report comes as Bitcoin miners grapple with mounting financial pressure following the latest halving. Many publicly traded mining companies are expanding into AI and high-performance computing to diversify revenue streams, even as Fidelity maintains that the network’s long-term security model remains intact.

Source: Fidelity Digital Assets

Crypto industry pours $189 million into 2026 US elections

Crypto companies have contributed roughly $189 million to the 2026 US election cycle, accounting for an estimated 37% of all corporate political spending so far, according to a new report by consumer advocacy group Public Citizen.

The report found that crypto-backed political action committees (PACs) are once again driving much of the industry’s political influence. Fairshake has spent more than $82 million this cycle, while the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. Super PAC — heavily backed by Crypto.com — has spent more than $56 million. Public Citizen said the groups are following the same strategy used in 2024, backing candidates from both major parties who support the industry’s policy agenda.

Crypto’s political spending has already surpassed the roughly $170 million deployed during the 2024 election cycle, with more than four months remaining before November’s elections. 

Source: Public Citizen

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Coinbase stock has climbed nearly 19% in the past five trading sessions even as Bank of America says investors are pulling money out of U.S. equities at the fastest pace since March.

According to a Bloomberg report, Bank of America told clients that U.S. equity funds recorded $17.2 billion in outflows during the week ending July 1, the first weekly withdrawals since March.

The bank’s note also showed that Japanese equity funds attracted $1.9 billion over the same period, their strongest weekly inflows since May, suggesting that investors are rotating capital away from U.S. stocks and into Japan.

Despite that backdrop, Coinbase Global has continued to outperform. The stock closed 3.92% higher at $165 on July 2 and has rallied from about $139 on June 26, extending its five-day gain to roughly 19%.

The rally has not been limited to Coinbase. Crypto-linked equities also advanced alongside the recovery in digital asset prices, with Strategy (MSTR) gaining around 7% and Circle (CRCL) adding nearly 4% during July 2 trading.

Europe expansion adds another growth catalyst

Alongside improving market sentiment, Coinbase is positioning itself to capture new business in Europe following the implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets framework.

According to a crypto.news report, several crypto firms that did not comply with MiCA requirements exited the European market after the July 1 deadline, while Coinbase remained operational under the new regulatory regime. The report noted that the exchange is attempting to attract users affected by those departures by offering a 5% transfer bonus to customers who move assets onto its platform.

If Coinbase succeeds in onboarding a meaningful share of those users, the increase in trading activity and transaction fees could support revenue during the July-to-September quarter, although the company has not disclosed any projections tied to the promotion.

Institutional investors have also continued to add exposure. ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, recently purchased 68,366 Coinbase shares, reinforcing confidence in the exchange even as sentiment toward U.S. equities has weakened.

Technical indicators point to improving momentum

From a technical standpoint, Coinbase shares are attempting to reverse the downtrend that has been in place since early May.

On the 4-hour chart, the stock has rebounded above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $156.9 and is now testing a descending trendline that has repeatedly rejected previous rallies. A decisive breakout above that trendline could strengthen the recovery and open the door to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $170.9, followed by $180.7, which aligns with the 50% retracement of the May-to-June decline.

Momentum indicators are also improving. The MACD has produced a bullish crossover, while the histogram has turned positive, indicating that buying pressure is increasing after several weeks of weakness.

At the same time, the Supertrend indicator remains in bullish territory, with support positioned near $144.8. Holding above both the Fibonacci support and the Supertrend could encourage buyers to continue challenging higher resistance levels.

However, failure to break the descending trendline may leave Coinbase vulnerable to another pullback toward the $156.9 support area before buyers make another attempt to resume the recovery.