TLDR:

• Paradigm partner Arjun Balaji has been leading the trading terminal project since late 2025 for pro traders.
  
• The firm is exploring prediction market indexes by bundling multiple markets into one single tradable product.
  
• Kalshi, backed by Paradigm, has raised at least $1 billion, pushing its valuation to a record $22 billion.
  
• Paradigm is raising up to $1.5 billion for a new fund expanding beyond crypto into AI and robotics sectors.

Paradigm, the prominent crypto venture capital firm, is developing a prediction markets trading terminal, sources say.

Partner Arjun Balaji has been leading the project since late 2025. The terminal targets professional traders and market makers. Paradigm has declined to comment on the initiative.

This move comes as mainstream financial institutions rush to capitalize on prediction markets’ growing popularity across sports, elections, and crypto pricing.

Paradigm Eyes Market-Making and Index Products

Beyond the trading terminal, Paradigm is weighing whether to establish an internal market-making desk. Two sources confirmed the firm has actively discussed this possibility. A market-making desk would position Paradigm as a direct participant, not just an infrastructure builder.

Separately, a third source says Paradigm is working with researchers on prediction market indexes. The concept involves bundling multiple prediction markets into one tradable product.

This mirrors how the S&P 500 packages hundreds of stocks into a single instrument. The firm has already started collecting prediction market data into a public dashboard.

Sources familiar with the matter noted that Balaji has been working on the terminal project since late 2025. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private business dealings. Paradigm’s spokesperson declined to comment when approached for a response.

This activity places Paradigm squarely inside a rapidly growing sector. Prediction markets have become one of Silicon Valley’s most discussed areas over the past year. Traditional financial players are also moving in, adding further competitive pressure.

Kalshi and Polymarket Drive Sector Valuations Higher

Paradigm has been a consistent backer of Kalshi, one of the two dominant prediction market platforms. The firm joined three successive Kalshi fundraising rounds in 2025. Paradigm also led a December round that valued Kalshi at $11 billion.

Kalshi has since raised at least $1 billion in new financing, bringing its valuation to $22 billion. Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang sits on Kalshi’s board of directors.

One source confirmed that Paradigm’s trading terminal is “not competitive with Kalshi’s platform,” drawing a clear line between the two products.

Rival platform Polymarket is also seeing sharp valuation growth. The Wall Street Journal reported Polymarket is in talks to raise at a roughly $20 billion valuation.

A new venture firm focused entirely on prediction markets has also emerged, backed by the CEOs of both platforms.

Paradigm’s prediction markets push fits within a wider expansion beyond crypto. The firm is raising up to $1.5 billion for a new fund covering AI and robotics alongside digital assets.

The Wall Street Journal recently reported on the fund’s broader scope, marking a clear shift in Paradigm’s investment direction.

EDX Markets, an institutional crypto exchange, has applied to the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish a national trust bank that would provide crypto custody, asset management and trade-settlement services.

The proposed entity, EDX Trust, would operate as a non-depository national bank, separating custody and settlement from trading while continuing to route order matching through EDX’s existing platform.

In its application, the company said the model is intended to address structural risks in crypto markets, where trading, custody and brokerage are often combined within a single platform, creating potential conflicts of interest and single points of failure.

EDX said the trust bank would provide fiduciary asset management services, invest client cash and stablecoin balances in highly liquid assets, and facilitate trading through a riskless principal model with end-of-day net settlement.

The bank would operate online from Chicago and target institutional clients such as broker-dealers, futures commission merchants and registered investment advisers, according to the filing.

EDX said moving these functions into an OCC-chartered entity would allow it to offer services nationwide under a single regulatory framework while meeting custody requirements for regulated institutions.

Founded in 2022, EDX Markets is backed by traditional market participants including Citadel Securities, Virtu Financial, Fidelity Digital Assets and Hudson River Trading.

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Crypto companies seek US bank charters

The application comes as crypto and financial companies increasingly pursue national trust bank charters to expand institutional services under federal oversight.

Earlier this month, Zerohash, a blockchain infrastructure company, applied for a US national trust bank charter to expand its stablecoin and custody services for banks, brokerages and fintechs.

Other recent applicants include Coinbase, which applied in October and is still awaiting a decision, as well as Laser Digital and Payoneer, which filed applications earlier this year to expand custody and stablecoin-related payment services.

Traditional financial institutions are also entering the space. In February, Morgan Stanley applied for a de novo trust bank charter to support digital asset services through a separate entity.

At the same time, the OCC has continued approving applicants, issuing conditional licenses last month to Bridge, Stripe and Crypto.com, following approvals in December for Ripple Labs, Circle Internet Group, Fidelity Digital Assets, Paxos and BitGo.

However, the pace of approvals has drawn scrutiny. In February, the American Bankers Association urged the OCC to slow the process, citing unresolved oversight under pending US stablecoin legislation.

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