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HBAR Price’s Breakout Will Likely Be Challenged By Bitcoin

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HBAR MFI

Hedera price has declined in recent sessions, forming a descending broadening wedge pattern that typically signals a potential bullish breakout. HBAR trades at $0.0923 at publication, remaining below the $0.0938 resistance level. 

While the technical structure suggests upside potential, Bitcoin’s direction could determine whether that breakout materializes.

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HBAR Holders Are Pulling Back On Selling

The Money Flow Index, or MFI, is forming a bullish divergence against HBAR price action. While HBAR recently posted a lower low, the MFI printed a higher reading. This divergence signals weakening selling pressure beneath the surface.

Bullish divergences often precede reversals in cryptocurrency markets. When momentum indicators improve during price declines, it reflects reduced conviction among sellers. Investors appear to be slowing distribution, which may allow HBAR to stabilize and attempt a rebound.

HBAR MFI
HBAR MFI. Source: TradingView

A confirmed breakout from the descending broadening wedge could trigger forced short liquidations. Liquidation data shows a concentration of short positions near the $0.1012 level. A move above that threshold would likely pressure bearish traders.

The liquidation map indicates most short liquidations sit at up to $0.1012. A rally through that zone could trigger approximately $4.34 million in liquidations. Forced buying from liquidated shorts often accelerates bullish momentum and strengthens breakout structures in volatile altcoins.

HBAR Liquidation Map
HBAR Liquidation Map. Source: Coinglass

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Bitcoin Remains a Problem

Despite improving technical signals, Bitcoin remains the dominant influence. Hedera has shown increasing correlation with BTC over recent months. When Bitcoin declines, HBAR frequently mirrors that weakness regardless of its internal setup.

A brief divergence occurred between June and July 2025, when Bitcoin advanced while HBAR moved sideways. Outside that period, price behavior largely aligned. With correlation now stronger, HBAR could struggle if Bitcoin fails to generate upward momentum.

HBAR Correlation To Bitcoin.
HBAR Correlation To Bitcoin. Source: TradingView

HBAR Price Breakout On The Cards

HBAR price sits at $0.0923, trading within the descending broadening wedge. Immediate resistance at $0.0938 continues to cap upside attempts. A confirmed breakout requires flipping $0.1005 into support and breaching $0.1071 decisively.

Clearing those levels would strengthen the bullish outlook and open the path toward $0.1300, which represents a recovery of recent losses. However, $0.1071 remains the primary short-term objective before any extended rally becomes sustainable.

HBAR Price Analysis.
HBAR Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Conversely, renewed Bitcoin weakness could invalidate the bullish thesis. Failure to overcome $0.0938 or loss of $0.0855 support would increase downside risk. A drop toward $0.0780 would confirm continued consolidation and delay any breakout scenario.

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Crypto World

CFTC Chair Says Agency is Ready to Oversee Entire Crypto Market

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CFTC Chair Says Agency is Ready to Oversee Entire Crypto Market

Michael Selig, US President Donald Trump’s nominee leading the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said the agency was prepared to oversee the entire $3 trillion crypto industry, with no timeline for Congress to pass a crucial market structure bill.

In a Wednesday statement about his first 100 days as CFTC chair, Selig said that the commission was “ready to take responsibility” for the crypto market and reiterated his claim that it was the sole regulator to oversee prediction markets.

His comments come as the US Senate considers the CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill that has been effectively stalled in committee amid discussions over stablecoin yield and other issues.

“The same regulatory clarity being delivered to the crypto industry is being developed for prediction markets, which can serve as powerful tools for information discovery and are regulated by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act,” said Selig.

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Under Selig, who was confirmed by the Senate in December, the CFTC has adopted many policies signaling that the agency would soften its enforcement and regulation of digital assets compared to previous administrations. In March, the agency announced a memorandum of understanding with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as part of efforts to coordinate on regulation, including digital assets.

Related: Crypto exchange KuCoin agrees to $500K settlement, ending CFTC case

Although early drafts of the market structure bill suggested the legislation could give the CFTC additional authority to oversee digital assets, the SEC is expected to continue regulating cryptocurrencies it considers to be securities.

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Lawmakers pressing CFTC on insider trading claims over prediction markets

US state authorities and federal lawmakers have been targeting prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged violations of gaming laws and claims of politicians using insider information to profit.

While many of the state-level actions continue to be litigated in court, Selig has claimed that the CFTC has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets and threatened legal action against any challenges to its authority.

In a Tuesday event, CFTC enforcement director David Miller said that the agency’s position was that event contracts on prediction markets were not “gaming” but rather “swaps” that fall under its purview.

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Some lawmakers have also proposed legislation to ban elected officials with insider information from profiting from event contracts after suspicious trades on military actions involving Iran and Venezuela.

Magazine: A newbie’s guide to surviving crypto winter