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Bitcoin ETFs bleed $410M amid $2.5B options expiry: is BTC facing deeper crash?

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Bitcoin BTC
Bitcoin BTC
  • Bitcoin saw spot ETF outflows of over $410 million as prices struggled.
  • Over $2.5 billion in Bitcoin options expired on Friday.
  • Analysts say “worst of downturn” likely over but market remains bearish.

Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of over $410 million on February 12, as investors withdrew capital from the exchange-traded funds amid growing fears of a broader crypto market downturn.

And on Friday morning, Feb. 13, BTC price fluctuated near $66,800 as the market recorded a massive $2.5 billion Bitcoin options expiry.

Crypto analysts have shared their thoughts on what this could mean for the Bitcoin price in the short term.

Bitcoin ETF outflows and $2.5 billion options expiry

Data showed that on US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of over $410 million yesterday, with none of the 12 spot ETFs notching net inflows.

BlackRock’s IBIT led with nearly $158 million, Fidelity’s FBTC had $104 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC had over $59 million in exits.

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This marked the second consecutive day of redemptions, following $276 million on February 11.

Institutional investors are pulling back amid Bitcoin’s struggles around the $67,500-$65,450 range.

The fresh ETF outflows coincide with a pivotal weekly options expiry at 08:00 UTC on Feb. 13.

Approximately 38,000 Bitcoin contracts worth $2.5 billion in notional value have expired, primarily on Deribit, with a put/call ratio of 0.72 and maximum pain near $74,000.

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Ethereum also saw 215,000 ETH options worth $410 million expire, with a put/call ratio of 0.82 and a maximum pain point at $2,100.

These maximum pain points are at values well above spot BTC and ETH levels, and likely the driver of downward pressure as market makers look to hedge delta exposure on out-of-the-money calls.

Bitcoin price prediction

The ETF outflows and broader market weakness hinder bulls, and sentiment is skewed bearish, analysts say.

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“Today saw the expiration of options accounting for 9% of total open interest, totaling nearly $2.9 billion. This week, implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum has declined, with BTC’s main-term IV at 50% and ETH’s at 70%. While the downward price trend has moderated, market confidence remains weak,” analysts at Greeks.live noted via X.

Despite this outlook, the market may have “the most violent leg of the downturn” behind it. If sentiment improves, prices could pick up an upside trajectory.

In this case, a relief rally to above the critical $70,000 mark is likely.

However, ETF bleeding and macroeconomic headwinds could greatly cap upside momentum.

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On Thursday, Standard Chartered forecast Bitcoin price could retest $50k before rising to $100k by the end of 2026. The bank cites ETF outflows, macro pressures and broader risk asset sentiment as negative catalysts.

Notably, BTC tested support at $60k this month, and the elevated implied volatility, coupled with ETF exits, signals aggressive downside protection.

If outflows continue amid other highlighted downside triggers, the $50k level could be the next target.

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Crypto World

Ethereum Economic Zone launches at EthCC to tackle L2 ‘fragmentation problem’

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What wiped out $1.7 billion?

Summary

  • Gnosis, Zisk and the Ethereum Foundation unveiled the Ethereum Economic Zone (EEZ) at EthCC in Cannes to unify fragmented Ethereum layer-2 networks.
  • The framework targets over 20 L2s securing roughly $40 billion in value, enabling synchronous composability without relying on bridges and standardizing ETH as gas.
  • Early backers include Aave and Centrifuge, with developers calling EEZ a “new era” for on-chain applications as Ethereum grapples with slowing fee revenue and a weaker deflationary narrative.

The Ethereum (ETH) ecosystem took aim at one of its biggest structural weaknesses at EthCC 2026, as Gnosis, Zisk and the Ethereum Foundation publicly launched the Ethereum Economic Zone (EEZ), a rollup framework designed to knit together an increasingly fractured layer‑2 landscape. Revealed on March 29 at the Palais des Festivals in Cannes, the initiative seeks to make dozens of Ethereum L2s behave “like one unified system,” in the words of project backers, by restoring synchronous composability between rollups and Ethereum mainnet while keeping security anchored to the base chain.

Ethereum Economic Zone launches

More than 20 operational Ethereum L2s currently secure about $40 billion in assets, yet function largely as isolated ecosystems, each with its own liquidity pools, deployments and bridge infrastructure. “Ethereum doesn’t have a scaling problem. It has a fragmentation problem,” Gnosis co‑founder Friederike Ernst said in comments shared with crypto media, arguing that “every new L2 that goes live has its own liquidity pool and bridging, creating another isolated walled garden.” The EEZ framework instead allows smart contracts on participating rollups to perform synchronous calls with each other and with Ethereum mainnet in a single atomic transaction, using ETH as the default gas token and removing the need for separate bridge protocols.

At EthCC, Ernst and Zisk developer Jordi Baylina presented the EEZ as an explicitly Ethereum‑aligned answer to the user‑experience and capital‑efficiency frictions created by the network’s L2‑centric scaling roadmap. According to coverage from outlets such as The Block and CoinDesk, the collaboration is co‑funded by the Ethereum Foundation and launches with Aave, Centrifuge and a Swiss‑based EEZ Alliance among its early partners, underscoring that DeFi blue chips see value in shared liquidity and cross‑rollup settlement. “The zone will facilitate a new era of blockchain innovation,” Zisk’s CEO Maria Roberts told conference attendees, adding that developers will be able to plug existing applications into the framework “pretty easily.”

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The timing is not accidental. Ethereum’s shift of activity toward cheaper L2s has reduced fee revenue on mainnet and softened the narrative of ether as a strongly deflationary asset, with ETH trading near $2,000 even as the network still secures roughly $53 billion in DeFi total value locked and about $163 billion in stablecoins, according to recent market data cited by Phemex. By unifying L2 liquidity and simplifying cross‑network flows, EEZ’s architects are betting that a more cohesive Ethereum stack can keep capital and users inside the ecosystem, even as competing smart contract platforms and modular architectures fight for market share.

Kaiko reports Alameda gap still existsIn separate reporting on EthCC, organizers have described 2026 as “the year of professionalisation of Ethereum and the wider crypto ecosystem,” with the conference’s move to Cannes and the launch of institutional‑focused forums like Kaiko’s Agora strengthening the sense that Ethereum’s next phase will be defined as much by market structure and infrastructure as by new token launches.

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CFTC Chair Says Agency is Ready to Oversee Entire Crypto Market

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CFTC Chair Says Agency is Ready to Oversee Entire Crypto Market

Michael Selig, US President Donald Trump’s nominee leading the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said the agency was prepared to oversee the entire $3 trillion crypto industry, with no timeline for Congress to pass a crucial market structure bill.

In a Wednesday statement about his first 100 days as CFTC chair, Selig said that the commission was “ready to take responsibility” for the crypto market and reiterated his claim that it was the sole regulator to oversee prediction markets.

His comments come as the US Senate considers the CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill that has been effectively stalled in committee amid discussions over stablecoin yield and other issues.

“The same regulatory clarity being delivered to the crypto industry is being developed for prediction markets, which can serve as powerful tools for information discovery and are regulated by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act,” said Selig.

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Under Selig, who was confirmed by the Senate in December, the CFTC has adopted many policies signaling that the agency would soften its enforcement and regulation of digital assets compared to previous administrations. In March, the agency announced a memorandum of understanding with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as part of efforts to coordinate on regulation, including digital assets.

Related: Crypto exchange KuCoin agrees to $500K settlement, ending CFTC case

Although early drafts of the market structure bill suggested the legislation could give the CFTC additional authority to oversee digital assets, the SEC is expected to continue regulating cryptocurrencies it considers to be securities.

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Lawmakers pressing CFTC on insider trading claims over prediction markets

US state authorities and federal lawmakers have been targeting prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged violations of gaming laws and claims of politicians using insider information to profit.

While many of the state-level actions continue to be litigated in court, Selig has claimed that the CFTC has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets and threatened legal action against any challenges to its authority.

In a Tuesday event, CFTC enforcement director David Miller said that the agency’s position was that event contracts on prediction markets were not “gaming” but rather “swaps” that fall under its purview.

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Some lawmakers have also proposed legislation to ban elected officials with insider information from profiting from event contracts after suspicious trades on military actions involving Iran and Venezuela.

Magazine: A newbie’s guide to surviving crypto winter