Crypto World
Can hackers drain Tangem cards? Ledger reveals laser attack
Ledger’s Donjon security team has disclosed a hardware attack that can reset the password on a Tangem wallet card.
Summary
- Ledger researchers reset Tangem card passwords using a targeted laser pulse against secure element firmware.
- The attack requires physical possession, specialist skills, invasive preparation and laboratory equipment costing around $250,000.
- Tangem called everyday risk virtually nonexistent but advised users to keep their wallet cards physically secure.
The method could allow an attacker to sign transactions and move funds linked to the card.
However, the attack requires physical possession of the wallet, specialist knowledge and laboratory equipment worth about $250,000. Tangem said those conditions make the risk to ordinary users “virtually non-existent.”
Laser attack bypasses Tangem password check
According to Ledger Donjon’s technical report, researchers used a nanosecond laser pulse against a specific area of the card’s secure element. The pulse disrupted a check inside Tangem’s firmware during a password reset command.
Tangem cards normally require the current password before accepting a new one. A recovery process can also reset the password when a user has another backup card linked to the same wallet.
The researchers said their attack bypassed the check that confirms whether the card had entered an approved recovery state. This allowed them to set a new password without knowing the original password or holding a backup card.
Ledger Donjon repeated the process on three cards. After the initial research, each test reportedly took about two hours to prepare and complete. The team disclosed the flaw to Tangem on Feb. 10.
Current Tangem cards cannot receive a patch
Ledger said the issue affects Tangem cards currently in circulation. The cards do not support firmware updates, meaning Tangem cannot distribute a software patch to devices already held by customers.
To perform the attack, researchers cut open the plastic card and removed shielding to expose the chip. They then rewired the device to custom equipment before carrying out power analysis and laser fault injection.
The invasive preparation damages the physical card. Ledger Donjon said an attacker could not secretly perform the procedure and return the card in its original condition.
“What this means for users: there’s no patch, but the attack is physical and invasive,” the researchers said. They added that the main risk applies when a card becomes lost or stolen.
Tangem disputes practical risk to users
In its response on X, Tangem did not dispute that the laboratory team completed the attack. However, it questioned whether the findings represent a practical threat to customers.
Tangem said the method needs “physical possession of the card, expensive laboratory equipment, and highly specialized expertise.” It described the everyday risk as “virtually non-existent.”
The company also noted that Ledger Donjon operates within Ledger, one of Tangem’s main hardware wallet competitors. Tangem said readers should consider that commercial relationship when assessing the report.
Still, Ledger’s researchers said the issue shows that an EAL6+ certified secure element does not protect against every attack. The certification covers the chip’s resistance to physical threats, but security also depends on the firmware running inside it.
Physical control remains the main safeguard
The disclosed attack does not work remotely. An attacker cannot use it through the Tangem mobile app, an internet connection or an NFC interaction alone.
Tangem users can reduce exposure by keeping every card secure and treating a lost card as a security event. Moving funds to a new wallet would remove the risk linked to a missing device.
The finding follows earlier research into Tangem’s security. Ledger Donjon previously disclosed an Android genuine-check bypass and a separate brute-force method targeting the card’s authentication process.
As reported by crypto.news, Ledger researchers also found a MediaTek chip flaw that could expose passwords and wallet data on some Android devices. Unlike the Tangem card attack, MediaTek later issued a patch for the affected mobile chips.
The latest Tangem finding remains limited by cost, access and technical difficulty. However, users whose cards remain in their possession are not exposed to the physical attack described by Ledger Donjon.
Zcash price has rallied past $500 after open interest jumped to $1.02 billion and traders accumulated positions ahead of the July 28 Ironwood upgrade.
Summary
- Zcash price climbed above $500 as traders positioned ahead of the July 28 Ironwood network upgrade.
- Futures open interest rose 27% to $1.02 billion, while trading volume jumped 49%, signaling stronger market participation.
- Technical indicators point to continued bullish momentum, with $510-$516 emerging as the next key resistance zone.
According to data from crypto.news, Zcash (ZEC) price has risen more than 7% over the past 24 hours to trade above $500, extending its weekly gain to around 10% as traders increased exposure ahead of the network’s Ironwood upgrade.
Alongside the price rally, derivatives participation has accelerated, while technical indicators point to sustained buying momentum. The latest move has also coincided with a recovery across the crypto market, where Bitcoin reclaimed the $64,000 level and improved sentiment for several major digital assets.
Network upgrade has become the key catalyst
Scheduled to activate at block 3,428,143 on July 28, the Ironwood upgrade has become the main catalyst behind renewed interest in Zcash. Zcash core developer Sean Bowe stated that the proposal has received support from major participants across the Zcash ecosystem.
The upgrade follows the discovery of a critical vulnerability in the Orchard shielded pool in May. According to the Zcash development team, the flaw could theoretically have allowed counterfeit ZEC to enter circulation without being detected, although no such exploitation was reported.
As part of Ironwood, developers will permanently retire the Orchard pool and prevent any new transactions from entering it. A redesigned shielded pool will replace it with stronger security measures, including formal verification, external security audits and quantum-resistant note designs intended to strengthen supply integrity and improve confidence in private transactions.
At the same time, improving conditions across the digital asset market have added another layer of support. Bitcoin’s recovery above $64,000 has encouraged renewed buying across altcoins, while Ether has continued moving toward its 50-day moving average near $1,800. XRP has also held support around $1.09, helping sustain positive sentiment ahead of the Zcash network upgrade.
Technical indicators continue to favor buyers
Growing participation in the futures market has reinforced the recent advance. Derivatives data shows trading volume jumped 49% to $1.98 billion, while open interest climbed 27.32% to $1.02 billion, indicating traders have continued opening new leveraged positions before the July activation.
On the technical side, ZEC has reclaimed several important resistance levels after recovering from roughly $368 in late June. The 4-hour chart shows the price moving above both the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $459.71 and the 78.6% level at $484.63, leaving the recent swing high as the next obstacle.
Momentum indicators continue to support the bullish structure. The 4-hour MACD remains in positive territory with the MACD line holding above the signal line, while the RSI sits near 65, suggesting buying strength remains intact without entering deeply overbought territory.
The daily chart also shows the Aroon Up indicator at 100% and Aroon Down near 14%, a combination that typically signals a strong prevailing uptrend. Even so, ZEC continues trading just below the Supertrend resistance around $516, making that zone an important hurdle before buyers can attempt another leg higher.
Commenting on the latest setup, crypto analyst Ardi noted that a decisive move above $510 would invalidate the current local swing resistance and could increase the probability of a rally toward $540.
While the analyst outlined that bullish scenario, the rapid increase in open interest also indicates leveraged positioning has become more crowded, leaving ZEC vulnerable to sharper price swings if momentum weakens near resistance.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Federal Judge Analisa Torres, the architect of XRP’s landmark 2023 securities ruling, has handed down another closely watched decision, leaving XRP price prediction debates wide open as the token trades at $1.09. The market is showing little urgency, with traders waiting for the legal dust to settle before making bigger moves.
Torres is best known for her July 2023 split ruling in the SEC’s case against Ripple. She found that programmatic XRP sales on exchanges were not securities, while institutional sales qualified as investment contracts. That decision became one of crypto’s most cited legal precedents. Even after the SEC and Ripple settled in 2025, her opinions still carry weight.
Her latest ruling comes from a different case, yet traders are reading between the lines anyway. Crypto markets have a habit of connecting dots, sometimes before the ink dries. Whether that reaction sticks depends on how regulators and courts interpret the decision in the months ahead.
For now, XRP continues to hold its chart structure despite the legal headlines. Price action remains relatively steady, but conviction is still in short supply. As always, the market loves certainty, and right now it is getting another legal puzzle instead of a clear answer.
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XRP Price Prediction: Recover Above $1.2 This Week?
XRP has been holding between $1.07 and $1.10 over the past 24 hours, reflecting a market that still lacks a clear winner. The past week’s range stretches from roughly $1.05 to $1.16, leaving support and resistance well defined. Traders are waiting for a catalyst, and so far, the chart has offered little more than a shrug.
Recent Ripple partnership headlines have done little to shake XRP out of that range. Sometimes good news knocks politely instead of kicking the door down. Even so, the series of higher lows remains intact, keeping buyers interested while preventing sellers from taking full control.
A bullish scenario starts with XRP defending the $1.05 to $1.07 support zone before reclaiming $1.16. A convincing breakout could then open the door to $1.25, where previous selling pressure emerged. That would finally give bulls something more exciting than another day of sideways candles.
The base case remains continued consolidation between $1.07 and $1.16 until a legal or macro catalyst tips the balance. On the flip side, a decisive close below $1.05 would weaken the current structure. If that happens, traders could begin watching the $1.00 area as the next meaningful support.
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XRP trading sideways around $1.10, after a multi-year legal saga and a settlement that already priced in the good news, raises a fair question: where does the asymmetric upside actually come from here? Established large-caps with resolved regulatory overhangs tend to grind, not explode.
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The post XRP Price Prediction: Judge in XRP Ruling Delivers Fresh Blow appeared first on Cryptonews.
Bitcoin closed the worst half-year in its recent history near $60,000, down from $93,000 in January and fresh off a 21-month low, and almost none of the damage came from crypto itself. The Federal Reserve and record ETF outflows did it, and the same two forces meet again at the July 28-29 policy meeting that will likely decide whether the bottom is in or another leg waits below. These are the levels, the scenarios, and the honest case on both sides.
Summary
- Bitcoin enters July near $60,000, with the July 28–29 Fed meeting expected to determine whether the recent sell-off extends or a recovery begins.
- The main risks remain hawkish Fed policy and continued spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, while whale accumulation and an oversold market provide the strongest bullish arguments.
- Key levels to watch are $58,000 support and $63,800 resistance; a sustained return of ETF inflows could signal that a broader recovery is underway.
Bitcoin enters July 2026 trading near $60,000, and the number understates how strange the year has been. The largest cryptocurrency began January above $93,000, peaked at $126,000 back in October 2025, and spent the first half of 2026 grinding down to a fresh 21-month low near $58,000 in late June, a decline of more than half from the top.
What makes it unusual is the absence of a villain: Bitcoin’s historic crashes came with something breaking, the Terra collapse in 2022, the FTX failure months later, and this time nothing inside crypto broke.
No major exchange failed, no large stablecoin lost its peg, and the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve stayed in place. The damage came almost entirely from two external forces: the Federal Reserve and the money leaving Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, and those same two forces are set to decide what happens next.
The pivotal event sits at the end of the month. The Federal Reserve meets on July 28-29, and prediction markets put roughly a 70% probability on the Fed holding rates steady, with the small remaining chance pointing toward a hike, not a cut, meaning a monetary rescue for risk assets this month looks unlikely.
Around that decision sits a market that is deeply oversold, largely deleveraged, and quietly being accumulated by long-term buyers even as ETF holders sell, a genuinely mixed setup that supports the range this piece will map rather than a confident call in either direction.
This prediction breaks down the month the way a trader would: the price levels that matter in both directions, the bearish case built on the Fed and the ETF exodus, the bullish case built on oversold conditions and whale accumulation, three concrete scenarios with the triggers that would produce each, the analyst and prediction-market targets worth knowing, and the honest bottom line on a month whose direction one meeting will largely set. None of it is investment advice, and Bitcoin’s volatility means every level here can be overrun by a single headline.
The levels that matter
Start with the map, because in a month likely to be decided by one event, the levels around that event are the whole game. Bitcoin near $60,000 sits below its 50-month exponential moving average around $65,600, a marker that has flipped from support to resistance and now caps rallies, while remaining well above its 100-month average near $40,000, which keeps the multi-year structure intact even in the current weakness.
On the downside, the first and most important floor is the late-June low near $58,115, the level that defined the month’s bottom and whose defense or failure is the single most-watched line on the chart. Below it, the $56,200 area marks a Fibonacci support that traders widely flag, and beneath that the picture opens toward the $50,000 to $53,000 zone, which aligns with the most bearish institutional forecasts and would represent the month’s worst-case territory. That lower band also sits near the long-term trendline Bitcoin has only breached during the deepest stretches of past bear markets, which is why a move into it would carry outsized psychological weight.
On the upside, reclaiming the $62,000 to $65,600 zone is the bulls’ first task, because turning that band from resistance back into support would neutralize the downtrend, and a decisive break above roughly $63,800 is the level several analysts cite as the signal that the immediate downtrend has ended. Above that, the 50-month average near $65,600 and then the $70,000 round number are the next hurdles, though reaching them in July would likely require the outside help the bull case depends on.
Held together, the structure is a market pinned below falling resistance and resting on a well-defined floor, waiting for a catalyst to resolve the tension, and the calendar says the catalyst arrives at month-end.
The bearish case: the Fed and the ETF exodus
The case for another leg down rests on the two forces that drove the first-half decline, and neither has clearly reversed. The Federal Reserve is the larger one. The new chair held rates steady at his first meeting in June and took this year’s expected rate cut off the table, and the resulting repricing of risk assets is much of what pulled Bitcoin down.
With markets assigning roughly a 70% odds to another hold on July 29 and the tail risk pointing toward a hike rather than a cut, the monetary backdrop offers Bitcoin no relief this month and possibly a fresh headwind, and a hold delivered with hawkish language, or any hint of a hike, is exactly the trigger that could push price back below the $58,115 floor.
The second force is the ETF exodus, and its scale is historic. Bitcoin ETFs posted their worst month on record in June with roughly $4.5 billion pulled, and one major bank cut its 12-month inflow forecast to zero, a stark reversal for the products that drove the prior bull run. Because ETF flows translate directly into real spot buying and selling through the creation-and-redemption machinery, sustained outflows are not sentiment noise; they are actual coins hitting the market, and until that flow turns, one of the largest sources of structural demand is instead a source of supply.
The bearish scenario also carries a wildcard: a treasury company forced into selling. Several corporate holders carry Bitcoin against financing, and a forced sale into a thin, falling market could accelerate a move toward the $50,000 to $53,000 zone, the kind of reflexive downside the first-half drawdown across the broader market already previewed.
The bullish case: oversold, deleveraged, and quietly accumulated
The case for a bottom does not rely on optimism; it rests on market structure. Bitcoin is deeply oversold on multiple timeframes, and the leverage that drove the crash has largely been flushed; the forced-selling cascade that liquidations mechanically produce is now spent, with open interest down to roughly $46.5 billion.
That matters because a deleveraged market has less fuel for cascading liquidations, which means another sharp drop would likely require a fresh fundamental trigger instead of more mechanical selling, a meaningfully different setup from the cascade that produced the June low.
Underneath the price, the on-chain picture diverges sharply from the ETF flows, and the divergence is the bull case’s strongest single point. Coins keep leaving exchanges, and whales accumulated more than 270,000 BTC over roughly two weeks around the lows, worth well over $16 billion, most of it moved through the private desks where size trades without moving the price, precisely the pattern of long-term buyers stepping in that has historically marked accumulation bottoms. That split, whales buying the low while ETFs sold, is the defining tension of the current market, and it means the selling has been concentrated in one holder class while another quietly absorbs supply.
For the bullish scenario to play out on price, Bitcoin needs a little outside help: a cooler mid-July inflation report, a return of ETF inflows for a week or more, or softer language from the Fed chair, any of which could let Bitcoin reclaim $60,000 as support and turn the oversold structure into a recovery. The bottoming signal to watch, on this side, is simple and specific: money flowing back into the ETFs for a sustained stretch, which is what a genuine turn in demand would look like first.
The macro backdrop: why a rate decision moves Bitcoin
For readers who find it strange that a central bank meeting dominates a Bitcoin forecast, the mechanism is worth making explicit, because it is the through-line of the entire year. Bitcoin trades, in the current era, as a high-beta risk asset: when the Federal Reserve tightens or signals higher-for-longer rates, the return available on safe assets like Treasuries rises, the cost of holding non-yielding assets climbs, and capital rotates out of the riskiest holdings first, with Bitcoin near the front of that queue. The first half of 2026 was a textbook demonstration, and the sequence matters.
The Fed’s new chair took office and, at his first meeting in June, held rates steady while removing the rate cut markets had priced for the year, and the repricing rippled straight through risk assets into Bitcoin, which fell from the low $70,000s toward $60,000 in the weeks that followed.
This is why the July 28-29 meeting carries such weight, and why its likely outcome is not comforting. A hold is the base expectation, but a hold is not neutral when the market had hoped for cuts; it confirms the higher-for-longer backdrop that pressured Bitcoin all year. The dangerous tail is a hawkish surprise: any hint of a hike, or a hold delivered with language pointing to more tightening ahead, would remove the last hope of monetary relief and likely send capital further out of risk.
The benign path runs the other way, through the data that precedes the meeting: a cooler mid-July inflation report would revive the case for eventual cuts, soften the dollar, ease Treasury yields, and give risk assets including Bitcoin room to breathe.
In other words, the inflation print in the middle of the month may matter nearly as much as the decision at the end of it, because it shapes what the Fed can credibly say. Bitcoin’s July is, to an uncomfortable degree, a bet on macro data it has no influence over.
The cycle debate underneath the month
Beyond July’s tactical picture sits a larger argument that colors every forecast, and it is worth understanding because it explains the extraordinary spread in analyst targets. Bitcoin has historically moved in roughly 4-year cycles tied to its halving events, with long bull markets giving way to deep bear markets in a rhythm traders have relied on for over a decade. The current drawdown, more than half off the October 2025 peak, would in the classic framework signal a bear market already well underway, pointing toward more downside and a longer winter before the next cycle.
The competing thesis, advanced by some of the most bullish institutional voices, is that this cycle is different because the buyer base has changed. On this view, the entry of ETFs, corporations, and other institutions is stretching Bitcoin’s traditional boom-and-bust rhythm into a longer, shallower, more gradual cycle, one where deep drawdowns like the current one are corrections within an extended bull market instead of the start of a multi-year winter.
The record ETF outflows of the first half complicate that story, since they show institutional money can leave as fast as it arrived, but the simultaneous whale accumulation supports it, suggesting conviction buyers view these levels as an opportunity.
The debate will not resolve in July, but it frames the month’s stakes: if the classic cycle holds, the $50,000s and lower are a waypoint on a longer decline, and if the institutional thesis holds, the current oversold, accumulated setup near multi-year support is closer to a bottom than a beginning.
July’s data will not settle the argument, but it will nudge the evidence one way or the other, which is part of why the month is being watched so closely.
Three scenarios for July
Pulling the forces together produces three coherent paths for the month.
The base case is a slow grind with a downward tilt. If nothing decisive changes before the Fed meets, Bitcoin likely chops between roughly $56,000 and $62,000, getting rejected on each push into the low $60,000s and treading water while the market waits for the July 29 outcome. This is the highest-probability path into the meeting, and it resolves only when the Fed does.
The bearish scenario opens below $58,115. A hot inflation report, a hawkish hold or hike signal from the Fed, or a forced corporate sale could break the June floor, exposing the $56,200 Fibonacci support and, if that fails, the $50,000 to $53,000 zone that aligns with the most bearish bank forecast. This is not the base expectation for July, but it is the clearly defined downside if sellers regain control.
The bullish scenario needs the outside help named above. A cooler inflation print, renewed ETF inflows, or a softer Fed tone could let Bitcoin hold above $60,000, reclaim the $62,000 to $65,600 band, and turn a break above roughly $63,800 into the signal that the downtrend has ended, opening a path toward the 50-month average and $70,000. It is the least likely path given the monetary backdrop, but the oversold, deleveraged, accumulated structure means the fuel for a sharp recovery is present if the catalyst appears.
Reading the flows in real time
Because this piece keeps returning to ETF flows as the signal that matters most, it is worth being concrete about how to read them during the month, since the daily numbers reward interpretation. The flow data publishes each trading day and measures coins genuinely created and redeemed, but single days are noise, dominated by one fund’s rebalancing or one authorized participant’s book, while multi-week trends are the real regime information.
A single green day after the June exodus means little; a sustained stretch of inflows, a week or more of consistent net creation across multiple issuers, is the pattern that would signal the demand which drove the bull market coming back, and it is the specific evidence a bottom-caller should demand before trusting a turn.
Two caveats keep the reading honest. First, a meaningful share of ETF positions belongs to basis traders holding shares against short futures to harvest a spread, and when that spread moves they redeem mechanically with no directional view, which means some of June’s alarming outflows were plumbing, not conviction selling, and some of any recovery’s inflows will be the same in reverse.
Second, flows lag price around the clock, since the ETFs trade only during US market hours while Bitcoin trades continuously, so a weekend move shows up in Monday’s flow number, not in real time. The practical habit is to watch the flow trend across a full week, weigh it against price action, and treat a durable turn in the trend, not any single print, as the tell.
Alongside the flows, the on-chain accumulation data, exchange balances and large-wallet holdings, provides the counterweight that has diverged from ETF selling all through the drawdown, and the month in which those two series finally point the same direction is likely the month the trend actually changes.
The targets on the table
The professional forecasts span an unusually wide range, which is itself information about how uncertain this moment is. On the short-term and bearish side, one major bank’s $53,000 forecast anchors the downside case, and prediction-market data leans bearish, with traders assigning roughly a 68% chance of Bitcoin reaching $65,000 by late July and a 64% chance of $60,000 holding as support, alongside only modest odds, under 20%, of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 by year-end.
On the bullish side, one major bank maintains a $100,000 year-end target and frames the sell-off as a buying opportunity rather than a cycle top, and one research firm holds a $150,000 year-end call built on the thesis that institutional ownership is stretching Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year cycle into a longer, more gradual one. Longer-dated model-based forecasts cluster in the high 5 figures to low 6 figures for late 2026 before rising in subsequent years.
The spread between a $53,000 near-term floor and a $150,000 year-end target is the honest picture: the analysts agree on almost nothing except that the second half depends on the Fed and the ETFs, the same two variables this piece has centered throughout.
For July specifically, the base-case targets cluster around $65,600 on the upside if support holds and the low-to-mid $50,000s on the downside if it does not, a range whose resolution the month-end meeting will largely dictate.
What could break the range
Because the base case is a range defined by one meeting, it is worth naming the events that could override it before or after July 29, since a month pinned on a calendar is also a month exposed to surprises. On the downside, beyond a hawkish Fed, the specific risks are a hot inflation print that removes the cooling narrative, a forced sale from a leveraged corporate treasury holder into thin liquidity, and any renewed acceleration in ETF redemptions that turns the June exodus into a quarter-long trend.
Each of these is capable of breaking the $58,115 floor independent of the Fed, and the treasury-sale risk in particular is the kind of reflexive, mechanical event that has produced Bitcoin’s sharpest single-day moves, because a holder selling from necessity, not choice, sells regardless of price.
On the upside, the overrides are mirror images: a cooler inflation report that revives cut expectations, a decisive multi-week return of ETF inflows, or a broad risk-on turn in traditional markets that lifts Bitcoin alongside equities. A geopolitical de-escalation or a softening dollar could each do it, since Bitcoin has tracked global risk appetite closely through the year.
The point of naming both sets is not to predict which fires but to frame the month correctly: the range between roughly $56,000 and $63,800 is the default, the Fed is the scheduled resolver, and the list above is the set of unscheduled events that could resolve it earlier or push it further in either direction. A disciplined reader watches the floor, the reclaim zone, the mid-month inflation data, and the ETF flow trend, and lets those four signals, not any forecast including this one, dictate the reading as the month unfolds.
The honest bottom line
July 2026 is a waiting month with a hard deadline. Bitcoin enters it oversold, deleveraged, and quietly accumulated, which limits the fuel for another forced-selling cascade, and simultaneously pinned beneath falling resistance by a Federal Reserve that has taken rate cuts off the table and an ETF complex still bleeding, which limits the fuel for a recovery. The result is a market coiled between a well-defined floor near $58,000 and a reclaim zone near $63,800, most likely grinding sideways with a downward tilt until the July 28-29 meeting forces the resolution, at which point the reaction to the Fed, and the behavior of ETF flows in the days around it, will set the tone for the rest of the summer.
The single most useful thing to watch is not the price but the flows: a sustained return of ETF inflows would be the first real evidence that the demand which drove the bull market is coming back, and its continued absence is the clearest reason to expect the grind to continue. Bitcoin has survived a half-year that erased more than half its value without a single structural break, which is either the setup for a base or the pause before another leg, and honestly, the month itself, through one meeting and a handful of data prints, will do more to answer that than any forecast can.
One final piece of perspective for anyone reading this mid-month: the hardest thing about a waiting market is that patience feels like inaction while the range holds, and then resolves faster than anyone can react once it breaks. The levels in this piece exist precisely so that the resolution, whenever it comes, is legible in advance instead of chased after the fact. The floor is near $58,000, the line that ends the downtrend is near $63,800, the scheduled catalyst is July 28-29, and the flow trend is the tell underneath all of it.
A reader who knows those four numbers going into the meeting is positioned to interpret whatever the Fed and the data deliver, which is the most any honest forecast can offer for a month this contingent: not a forecast to trust blindly, but a map to read the month against as it happens.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and you can lose your entire investment. Price levels, forecasts, and the July 28-29 Federal Reserve meeting date reflect information current as of July 9, 2026, and are subject to change; verify current conditions before making any decision. Always do your own research.
The U.S. Department of Justice has reportedly moved to dismiss its criminal case against the founder of BitClub Network despite allegations that the crypto mining scheme defrauded investors of $722 million.
Summary
- DOJ has reportedly moved to dismiss its case against BitClub founder Matthew Goettsche despite $722 million fraud allegations.
- The reported decision follows a 2025 DOJ policy ending “regulation by prosecution” for the digital asset industry.
- Federal prosecutors continue pursuing other major crypto fraud cases, including the alleged $328 million Goliath Ventures scheme.
According to a report by Bloomberg Law, citing two people familiar with the matter, the Office of the Deputy Attorney General directed federal prosecutors in New Jersey to dismiss the case against BitClub Network founder Matthew Goettsche with prejudice, a move that would permanently end the prosecution if approved by the court.
A filing submitted to U.S. District Judge Claire Cecchi on Wednesday showed Goettsche’s legal team informed the court that both sides had reached “an agreement in principle” to resolve the case but required additional time to finalize its terms. The filing did not disclose the details of the proposed agreement.
If the dismissal proceeds, it would reverse one of the Justice Department’s highest-profile cryptocurrency fraud prosecutions after Goettsche spent years facing charges linked to the alleged operation of BitClub Network between 2014 and 2019.
Case has changed under the DOJ’s crypto policy
Federal prosecutors indicted Goettsche in December 2019 on charges including conspiracy to commit wire fraud and selling unregistered securities. His trial had been scheduled for October this year.
Court records allege BitClub Network marketed itself as a Bitcoin mining pool that allowed investors to purchase mining shares in exchange for passive income. Prosecutors claimed the company manipulated reported mining returns and fabricated earnings data to persuade existing members to invest more while attracting new participants.
Earlier court filings also alleged that Goettsche privately described the business model as being built “on the backs of idiots,” a statement prosecutors cited as evidence of the scheme’s intent.
The reported decision follows an April 2025 memorandum issued by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, which instructed Justice Department prosecutors to end what he described as “regulation by prosecution” in cases involving the digital asset industry. Bloomberg Law reported that the directive formed part of the background to the department’s latest decision.
Three former BitClub executives have already admitted their roles in the operation. Silviu Balaci, Joseph Abel, and Gordon Beckstead each pleaded guilty in connection with the alleged fraud, making the reported dismissal of Goettsche’s case a notable departure from the prosecution’s earlier course.
Prosecutors continue pursuing large crypto fraud cases
While the BitClub case appears headed toward dismissal, the Justice Department has continued bringing criminal cases involving alleged cryptocurrency fraud and financial crime.
In February, federal authorities arrested Christopher Alexander Delgado, founder and chief executive of Goliath Ventures, on charges connected to an alleged $328 million Ponzi scheme, according to the Department of Justice. Prosecutors allege Delgado raised more than $300 million by promoting cryptocurrency liquidity pools that promised consistent monthly returns, while only about $1 million was invested in legitimate crypto assets. Investigators further allege that most of the funds were used to repay earlier investors and finance personal expenses, including luxury travel, corporate events, and multimillion-dollar homes in central Florida.
Separately, the Department of Justice announced in April that California resident Evan Tageman received a 70-month prison sentence for participating in a criminal enterprise that stole roughly $263 million in cryptocurrency through social engineering attacks and burglaries.
During the same month, the department also announced the freezing of more than $700 million in crypto linked to investment scams targeting U.S. victims, while authorities in February seized nearly $580 million connected to an alleged scam network operating across Southeast Asia.
Outside the crypto sector, federal prosecutors have also continued pursuing major financial crime cases. Last December, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York announced the conviction of filmmaker Carl Erik Rinsch on wire fraud, money laundering, and related financial charges after prosecutors alleged he diverted funds provided by Netflix for a science-fiction television series instead of using them for production.
Bitcoin is trading near $62,950 after gaining about 1.7% over the past 24 hours, but the latest price prediction is looking well beyond today’s bounce. Some traders are watching a recurring 91-day window that previously marked the final stage of several bear markets. If history rhymes again, the real fireworks may come later, not today.
The recent break below a multi-month symmetrical triangle triggered heavy liquidations before BTC clawed back above $61,500. That sharp flush shook out leveraged positions, yet buyers quickly stepped in. Sometimes the market loves scaring everyone before asking them back to the party.
Meanwhile, mining difficulty fell by roughly 10% during June, marking another notable downward adjustment this year. Similar moves have often appeared near major cycle turning points as weaker miners exit. On top of that, both linear regression and logarithmic Fibonacci analysis identify the $47,000 area as a possible downside target.
Even so, no model guarantees Bitcoin will revisit that level. Technical projections work best as probability maps, not crystal balls. If momentum strengthens and demand keeps improving, the market could ignore that target altogether.
For now, leverage has cooled while ETF flows have become steadier after earlier swings. At the same time, macro uncertainty continues to keep traders cautious. The next three months may decide whether Bitcoin builds a durable base or delivers one last shakeout before the trend changes.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can it Recover From Here, or Is $47K Still on the Table?
Bitcoin is trading around $62,500, after bouncing between roughly $61,700 and $62,600 over the past day. Volume has cooled from the recent liquidation wave, suggesting traders are catching their breath rather than rushing back in.
Resistance remains clustered between $63,000 and $65,000, where recent rallies have repeatedly lost steam. Meanwhile, $60,000 continues to act as the line bulls would rather not cross. It has absorbed selling pressure before, and traders would like it to keep that reputation.
The 91 day bear market framework still deserves attention. Historically, this final stretch has produced the sharpest declines before a lasting bottom forms. Bitcoin remains about 50% below its October 2025 all-time high near $126,000, putting the current drawdown in line with previous cycles. History does not repeat perfectly, but it certainly enjoys familiar plot twists.
If buyers reclaim $65,000 with convincing volume, the recent breakdown could prove to be another bear trap. Otherwise, the more likely path is continued trading between $58,000 and $65,000, with a possible final washout toward $47,000 to $52,000 later in the cycle. A sustained close below $58,000 would weaken that outlook and could bring the bottom forward sooner than expected.
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Bitcoin Hyper Eyes Early Positioning as BTC Navigates Its Most Punishing Quarter
When Bitcoin enters its historically most volatile quarterly window, experienced traders often look beyond spot BTC for asymmetric positioning, particularly in early-stage infrastructure plays tied directly to Bitcoin’s ecosystem. The logic isn’t complicated: if BTC ultimately confirms a cycle floor in this window, the projects building on top of it tend to reprice faster than the asset itself on the way back up.
For those watching broader bearish BTC market dynamics, the rotation argument is straightforward.
Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is currently in presale at $0.0136829, having raised almost $33 million to date. The project positions itself as the first Bitcoin Layer 2 with Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) integration, targeting the transaction speed and smart contract functionality that Bitcoin’s base layer structurally cannot provide, while preserving Bitcoin’s security model.
A Decentralized Canonical Bridge handles BTC transfers natively, and staking is live with high APY for early participants. As with any presale, liquidity is absent until listing, and the token price is speculative.
Those who want to research Bitcoin Hyper further can review the full documentation before committing capital.
Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio
The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: Overlooked Indicator Gives the Bear Market 3 Months Left appeared first on Cryptonews.
Robinhood says eligible US-based customers will soon be able to connect third-party AI agents that can place cryptocurrency trades on their behalf—an extension of its “agentic trading” push that the firm previously rolled out for equities and options.
The company did not provide a specific US launch date, but Robinhood indicated UK customers would be next in line. The move positions automated, rules-based trading as the next layer of retail crypto access, while also tying it to broader blockchain ambitions including Robinhood’s recently launched Ethereum layer-2 network, Robinhood Chain.
Key takeaways
- Robinhood plans to let eligible customers connect third-party AI agents to execute crypto trades with predefined guardrails.
- A US rollout date for crypto agent trading was not announced; UK access is expected to come first.
- Robinhood’s equities/options agent product went to beta in late May, and more than 70,000 agentic accounts have been created since then.
- Robinhood said its Robinhood Chain processed 17 million transactions from nearly 350,000 wallet addresses in its first week.
- Despite growing integrations for AI-agent payments, on-chain activity routed through some agent-payment rails remains limited—Artemis data cited $2 million in June for x402-facilitated volume.
Robinhood expands “agentic trading” to crypto
During a presentation on Friday, a Robinhood executive said the goal is to let users collaborate with AI agents to build trading strategies that include specific constraints, reducing the need for constant account monitoring.
Robinhood’s crypto agent trading offering will be available to eligible customers in the United States, but the firm did not specify when that eligibility window will open. The company also said it would extend access to its UK customers before—or alongside—US expansion.
For context, Robinhood has already been experimenting with AI-driven investment decisions in traditional markets. According to Robinhood’s own messaging, equities traders can already use agentic accounts to request investments in areas such as crypto mining stocks, including via the same underlying concept of delegating certain actions to AI agents under user-defined rules.
How the system works—and what Robinhood is integrating
Robinhood’s approach centers on offering “agentic accounts” through multiple third-party AI providers. The company said it will connect eligible users with agents from companies including Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX’s Grok.
In addition to crypto trading, Robinhood also indicated it is enabling some eligible users to have credit card purchases executed on their behalf by AI agents—suggesting the firm is building out a wider portfolio of delegated actions rather than limiting autonomy to markets only.
For retail investors, the key promise is practicality: instead of tracking markets continuously, a user can define boundaries for an AI agent and let it act when those conditions are met. However, readers should watch how Robinhood frames “guardrails” in the crypto context—especially around risk limits, trade frequency, and what happens if an agent’s assumptions about market data break down.
Autonomy meets Robinhood’s blockchain strategy
The crypto agent-trading update comes alongside Robinhood’s expanding on-chain infrastructure efforts. Earlier this month, the company launched Robinhood Chain, an Ethereum layer-2 network.
Robinhood executive Johann Kerbrat said Robinhood Chain processed 17 million transactions from nearly 350,000 wallet addresses during its first week. While this figure is not directly tied to agent trading activity, it helps explain why autonomy is becoming a strategic focus: systems that delegate actions to software agents can benefit from faster settlement and composable on-chain workflows.
Robinhood also pointed to traction on its agent product in equities and options. The company said over 70,000 agentic accounts have already been created by equities and options traders since late May, when the platform launched a beta version of the agentic trading feature.
Broader AI-agent payments momentum—yet activity still trails expectations
Robinhood’s push reflects an industry-wide belief that AI agents will become frequent users of blockchain payments, particularly as agents increasingly handle real-world tasks and financial decisions. Earlier coverage from Cointelegraph noted optimism from major crypto and fintech executives, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire, about AI agents becoming dominant users of blockchain payments over the next few years.
Several recent integrations illustrate how AI-agent spending is being wired into crypto rails. In May, Amazon Web Services integrated Coinbase’s x402 payments protocol into Amazon Bedrock AgentCore, enabling agents to transact using the USDC stablecoin.
More broadly, crypto wallet startup Oobit launched in April a Visa-supported virtual card aimed at enabling AI agents to make online purchases in USDt (USDT) on behalf of businesses.
Still, available data suggests adoption of agent-centric payment rails remains early. According to Artemis data cited in the original report, only $2 million in transaction volume was facilitated through the AI agent-supported x402 protocol in June. That discrepancy—between high-level momentum and relatively modest on-chain routed volumes—may matter for investors evaluating which parts of the agent-payment stack are gaining real traction first.
What to watch next
Robinhood’s next steps—especially the timing of crypto agent trading for US customers, the exact implementation of “guardrails,” and whether agent-linked activity grows beyond initial experimentation—will determine whether delegated trading becomes a durable retail feature or remains a niche capability as the wider ecosystem develops AI-agent payments.
Nakamoto CEO David Bailey has resurfaced a 2014 controversy involving developer Luke Dashjr. He argues the record disqualifies Dashjr from steering Bitcoin (BTC) as the BIP-110 fight intensifies.
The claim revives a dispute over blacklists Dashjr once built into a version of Bitcoin’s software. It resurfaces as he backs BIP-110, his proposed one-year ban on storing images and other non-money data on Bitcoin.
Bailey Points to a 12-Year-Old Blacklisting Incident
On Friday, Bailey wrote that Dashjr secretly added Bitcoin address blacklists to the Gentoo Linux package he maintained in 2014.
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The 2014 patch shipped on by default, blocking payments to gambling services such as SatoshiDice from the Gentoo build of Bitcoin software. Node operators noticed only when transactions failed, and the backlash filled a widely shared thread.
Even then, a fellow Core developer said such changes belonged in a separately named version, not the default software.
Supporters stress the context. Dashjr reversed the default, made it optional, and apologized, and Bitcoin Core never shipped the blacklists. That same developer now drives Bitcoin’s anti-spam rule change.
BIP-110 Turns an Old Dispute Into a Trust Test
The rule targets Ordinals inscriptions, the images and text people embed on Bitcoin, which backers call spam. Dashjr runs Bitcoin Knots, an alternative version of the software that already enforces the limit.
Knots powered about a fifth of the network’s public computers, known as nodes, during 2025’s spam fight, data shows. He calls the fight existential, warning Bitcoin fails if the proposal fails.
Miners can back the change by flagging the blocks they mine. BIP-110 needs 55% of them, below Bitcoin’s usual 95% bar. Yet support has stayed under 1% since December 2025, never topping 0.79%.
Even so, computers running the software plan to reject any block that withholds support from early August. The move echoes 2017, when users forced an upgrade called SegWit the same way. That push carried broad market backing. BIP-110 does not.
Prominent voices oppose the plan. MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor called it a self-inflicted protocol risk. Blockstream’s Adam Back warned of fork risk that could strand supporters on a separate chain.
Bailey also argued that Wall Street misjudges the stakes. If the network ever split, he asked, which side would the cash-settled futures on the CME exchange treat as the real Bitcoin?
“very clear to me the Wall Street universe has no idea how Bitcoin governance works. Like which chaintip does a cash settled Bitcoin future traded on the CME settle against? Whether TradFi like it or not, they’re locked in the insane asylum with all of us,” Bailey added.
Bitcoin’s market value sits near $1.3 trillion. Critics say that trillion-dollar market value should not hinge on one developer’s preferences.
Dashjr is not Bitcoin Core’s sole maintainer, a role shared among several contributors. His direct influence runs through Knots and the people who run it.
The activation window opens in early August. Back has dismissed that deadline as the road to a minority altcoin, a small spinoff few would follow. The 2014 fight now stands in for a bigger question, who gets to shape Bitcoin.
The post A 12-Year-Old Bitcoin Dispute Returns as BIP-110 Divides the Community appeared first on BeInCrypto.
XRP spent the first half of 2026 defending the one level that matters, the $1 mark, while a wall of bullish fundamentals, ETF inflows, whale accumulation, and a finished lawsuit failed to move the price. Now a delayed act of Congress has become the single catalyst that could break the deadlock in either direction. This is the level, the tension between fundamentals and price, and the honest case on both sides for the month ahead.
Summary
- XRP remains trapped between $1 support and $1.20 resistance as bullish fundamentals struggle to lift the price.
- Progress on the CLARITY Act could unlock stronger institutional demand, while another delay may pressure the $1 floor.
- ETF inflows, whale accumulation, Fed policy, and broader crypto sentiment will shape XRP’s direction through July.
XRP (XRP) enters July 2026 trading near $1.14, and the number hides a standoff. For months, the token has done something that frustrates every holder watching the headlines: it has absorbed a steady stream of unambiguously bullish news, sustained ETF inflows, tripling whale accumulation, the long legal cloud finally lifted, and gone essentially nowhere, pinned in a range whose floor is the psychologically decisive $1.00 mark. The fundamentals say one thing, and the price says another, and the gap between them is the defining feature of XRP right now.
The catalyst that could finally resolve the standoff is not a product or a partnership but a piece of legislation. The market-structure bill that would settle how digital assets like XRP are classified in the United States, and with it the path to spot ETF conversions and deeper institutional access, has slipped from its expected timeline toward late July or August, and its progress or delay has become the swing factor traders are watching above all else. XRP sits, in other words, between a well-defended floor and a legislative catalyst, with fundamentals loaded on one side and a stubborn chart on the other, waiting for something to break the tension.
This prediction maps that standoff the way a trader would: the price levels that define the range, the strange disconnect between XRP’s strong fundamentals and its flat price, the bullish case built on flows and legislation, the bearish case built on the chart and the broader market, the analyst and prediction-market targets worth knowing, and the honest bottom line on a month that could stay boring or break hard. None of it is investment advice, and XRP’s history of violent moves means every level here can be overrun by a single headline.
The levels that matter
The map begins and ends with $1.00, because no level on XRP’s chart carries more weight. The token trades near $1.14, and the entire near-term structure organizes around the $1.00 to $1.06 support band, where a large concentration of XRP has accumulated and where buyers have repeatedly defended the line. Holding that band is the whole bullish premise; losing it changes the picture entirely.
On the downside, the immediate support sits around $1.08 to $1.10, the near shelf beneath the current price, and below it the decisive $1.00 to $1.06 zone, the floor whose defense has defined the range for months. A clean break below $1.00 would be more than technical; it would puncture the psychological line the entire holder base watches, and would open a path toward the $0.90 area and, if selling accelerated, the low $0.80s that mark the range’s worst case. Because so much rests on the round number, the reaction at $1.00 is the single most important thing to watch on any decline.
On the upside, the first resistance is the $1.18 to $1.20 area, the ceiling that has repeatedly capped rallies and that prediction markets treat as the key line for the month. Above it, clearing the low $1.20s would signal the range breaking upward, with the next meaningful hurdles near $1.30 and then the $1.50 to $1.65 zone that would mark a genuine trend change after months of grinding. The structure, in short, is a coiled range: a heavily defended floor at $1.00, a stubborn ceiling near $1.20, and a token compressed between them waiting for a catalyst, with the legislative calendar the most likely source of one.
The disconnect: strong fundamentals, flat price
The most important thing to understand about XRP right now is why it is not higher, because the bullish fundamentals are real and the flat price is the puzzle. Consider what has accumulated on the positive side of the ledger. Spot XRP ETFs have drawn sustained inflows over a multi-week stretch, real institutional money entering through the creation-and-redemption machinery that turns inflows into spot buying.
Whale accumulation has intensified, with large-wallet activity and exchange outflows rising sharply as big holders move coins into storage, the same accumulation-into-weakness pattern visible across the majors, the tradable float on exchanges falling toward multi-year lows. The legal uncertainty that shadowed XRP for years has resolved. And Ripple has continued stacking institutional wins across payments and custody. By the usual logic, this combination should have driven a substantial move, and it has not.
The explanation is partly that XRP does not trade in isolation. It remains correlated with the broader crypto market, and that market spent the first half of 2026 in a significant drawdown driven by the Federal Reserve and risk-off flows, the same macro pressure that pulled Bitcoin from the $90,000s toward $60,000.
In that environment, XRP’s token-specific tailwinds were fighting a market-wide headwind, and the result was a standoff: the bullish flows defended the floor while the bearish macro capped the ceiling, producing exactly the compressed range the chart shows. It is also partly that the market is waiting for the one catalyst that converts XRP’s fundamental progress into a structural demand shift, the legislative clarity that would unlock the next wave of institutional access, and until that arrives, the accumulated fundamentals sit as stored potential rather than realized price. The disconnect, in other words, is not evidence the bull case is wrong; it is evidence the bull case is waiting for a trigger the calendar has delayed.
The bullish case: flows, float, and the CLARITY catalyst
The case for an upside break rests on three reinforcing pillars. The first is the flow-and-float dynamic. Sustained ETF inflows represent real buying, and they are meeting a shrinking available supply as whales pull coins off exchanges into storage, a classic setup where steady demand meets contracting float and price becomes increasingly sensitive to any demand shock. If the accumulation continues and the float keeps thinning, the conditions for a sharp move higher build quietly beneath the flat price, needing only a catalyst to ignite.
The second pillar is that catalyst: the market-structure legislation. If the bill advances on its revised timeline, it would settle XRP’s regulatory classification in the United States and clear the path for spot ETF conversions and the deeper institutional participation that a defined legal status unlocks, the classification fight whose stakes reach across the entire market.
Because so much of XRP’s institutional demand is gated behind that clarity, its arrival is the specific event that could convert the stored fundamental potential into realized price, and the market’s attention to the legislative calendar reflects exactly that.
The third pillar is seasonal and technical: July has historically been one of XRP’s stronger months, and a token compressed against a defended floor with thinning float is structurally primed for an upside move if any catalyst breaks the range. Combine continued flows, a legislative green light, and favorable seasonality, and the bullish path toward the $1.20 ceiling and beyond becomes credible.
What the legislation would actually change
Because the entire bull case pivots on the market-structure bill, it is worth being precise about what its passage would and would not do, since the market’s fixation on it can blur into vagueness. The bill’s core function is classification: it would define whether a digital asset like XRP is treated as a commodity or a security under United States law, and assign clear jurisdiction between regulators accordingly. That sounds technical, and its consequences are concrete.
A definitive commodity-style classification would remove the regulatory overhang that has kept many institutions on the sidelines, clear the path for spot ETF products and their conversions to proceed without legal ambiguity, and let banks, asset managers, and payment institutions engage with XRP under rules they can actually follow instead of guessing at.
The reason this matters so much for XRP specifically is that XRP’s investment thesis is unusually institutional. Its core use case runs through payments, cross-border settlement, and the regulated financial institutions Ripple has spent a decade courting, which means XRP’s demand is gated behind regulatory clarity to a degree that more retail-driven assets are not.
A bank cannot build on an asset whose legal status is undefined, and much of the accumulated fundamental progress, the custody deals, the payment integrations, the institutional partnerships, converts into actual token demand only once the classification question is settled.
This is why the legislation functions as the swing factor: it is not just another headline but the specific key that unlocks the demand the other fundamentals have been building toward. It is also why a delay hurts more than it would for most tokens, because the stored potential cannot be realized until the gate opens, and every slip in the timeline extends the standoff the chart reflects.
Two caveats keep the analysis honest. First, legislative outcomes are binary and uncertain: the bill could advance, stall, or pass in a weakened form, and the market’s apparent assumption that clarity eventually arrives is a bet, not a certainty.
Second, even favorable passage would not produce instant demand; institutional adoption moves on quarterly timelines, through risk committees and compliance reviews, so the price effect of clarity would likely build over months instead of spiking on the announcement, the same slow procedural cadence that governs every institution’s entry into the asset.
The catalyst is real, in other words, but its payoff is a curve, not a switch, which matters for anyone expecting a single legislative headline to resolve the standoff overnight.
The fundamentals beneath the token
It is worth grounding the bull case in the specific fundamental progress that has accumulated, because the disconnect between that progress and the flat price is the month’s central puzzle. On the institutional side, Ripple has continued building the payments and custody business that gives XRP its distinctive use case, adding banking relationships and settlement integrations that deepen the token’s role in cross-border flows.
On the product side, the regulated stablecoin in Ripple’s ecosystem has grown into a meaningful settlement instrument, and the broader infrastructure around XRP, custody, tokenization, and institutional rails has matured steadily. On the market-structure side, the arrival of spot ETFs gave regulated capital a compliant path into XRP for the first time, and their sustained inflows are the clearest evidence that the demand is real.
The bearish counter to all of this is not that the fundamentals are fake but that they are already priced, or that they matter less than the market believes for a token whose price is ultimately set by supply, demand, and macro sentiment like any other.
A skeptic notes that XRP has a large supply, that some of the accumulated demand may be offset by steady selling from long-term holders and scheduled releases, and that fundamental progress has repeatedly failed to translate into price, which at some point becomes evidence about the relationship itself, not a temporary lag.
Both readings are live, and the honest synthesis is that XRP’s fundamentals have built a loaded setup whose realization depends on a catalyst and a cooperative macro, neither of which the token controls, which is exactly why the price sits where it does: potential energy waiting for a trigger, in a market not yet ready to price it.
The bearish case: the chart and the market
The case for continued weakness, or a downside break, is equally grounded. The first and simplest bearish point is that the range has held for months and the burden of proof is on the bulls: XRP has repeatedly failed to clear the $1.18 to $1.20 ceiling, and a token that cannot break resistance despite a wall of good news is a token whose buyers are exhausted at those levels, which often precedes a move down rather than up.
The disconnect between fundamentals and price cuts both ways, and the bearish reading is that if this much good news cannot lift the price, the selling pressure, much of it from the same steady supply the market must absorb, is stronger than the bulls admit.
The second bearish point is the macro and the legislative risk itself. XRP’s correlation with the broader market means a weak crypto tape, driven by a hawkish Federal Reserve at its late-July meeting or renewed risk-off flows, would pressure XRP regardless of its own fundamentals, and the same drawdown that capped the first half could extend into the summer.
The legislative catalyst is also a double-edged sword: a further delay, a watering-down of the bill, or a disappointing outcome would remove the very trigger the bull case depends on, and a market that has priced in eventual clarity could sell the disappointment, breaking the $1.00 floor and opening the path toward $0.90 and the low $0.80s. The bearish scenario, in short, is that the range resolves downward, either because the macro drags XRP with the market or because the awaited catalyst slips again and disappoints a market tired of waiting.
Three scenarios for July
Pulling the forces together produces three coherent paths for the month, organized around the two levels and the one catalyst.
The base case is the range holding. If the legislation stays in limbo and the macro neither rescues nor crushes risk assets, XRP most likely continues to grind between the $1.00 to $1.06 floor and the $1.18 to $1.20 ceiling, defending the round number on dips and stalling at resistance on rallies, exactly the compression that has defined recent months. This is the highest-probability path absent a catalyst, and it resolves only when the legislation or the macro forces a break.
The bullish scenario needs the catalyst. Advancement of the market-structure bill on its revised timeline, ideally alongside a stable-to-positive crypto tape and continued ETF inflows, could break XRP above the $1.20 ceiling, turn the thinning float into a demand-shock accelerant, and open the path toward $1.30 and the $1.50 to $1.65 trend-change zone. Favorable July seasonality adds a tailwind. This is the path the accumulated fundamentals have been building toward, and it activates on a legislative green light.
The bearish scenario breaks the floor. A hawkish Federal Reserve dragging the whole market down, a renewed risk-off wave, or, most pointedly, another legislative delay or a disappointing outcome could puncture the $1.00 line, trigger the psychological break the entire holder base watches, and open the path toward $0.90 and the low $0.80s. The cruelest version is the catalyst itself disappointing, since a market that has waited months for clarity could sell the letdown hard.
The targets on the table
The forecasts around XRP span an unusually wide range, reflecting the genuine uncertainty of a token waiting on legislation. Prediction-market data leans cautious for the short term, with traders assigning strong odds, around 70%, to XRP closing above $1.20 on the relevant horizon, meaningful odds of a close below $1.00, and only a small probability of a move to $2 or above in the near window, a spread that captures the market’s sense of a range more likely to hold than to break dramatically either way.
On the analyst side, one major bank cut its XRP forecast sharply, from $8 to $2.80, framing the reduction as a return to realism rather than a loss of faith, while maintaining a substantially higher longer-dated target, and the range of published targets runs from sub-$1 bearish cases through low-single-digit base cases to the double-digit forecasts that depend on full institutional adoption playing out.
The spread from a sub-$1 downside to double-digit bull cases is the honest picture, and it maps directly onto the legislative binary: the bullish targets largely assume the market-structure clarity arrives and unlocks institutional demand, while the bearish ones assume continued delay and macro pressure.
For July specifically, the levels matter more than the price targets: the realistic range centers on the $1.00 floor and the $1.20 ceiling, with a break of either level the signal that the standoff has resolved, and the far targets in both directions activating only if the range genuinely breaks.
What to watch as the month unfolds
For a reader tracking XRP through July, the signals worth monitoring are specific and mostly public. The legislative calendar sits at the top: any concrete movement on the market-structure bill, a committee vote, a floor schedule, a revised timeline, is the highest-impact news the token can receive, and its absence is itself information, since continued silence extends the standoff.
The $1.00 line is the second signal, and its behavior on any decline, whether buyers defend it as they have for months or whether it finally gives way, will tell more about the token’s near-term direction than any headline. The $1.20 ceiling is the mirror: a decisive close above it on volume would signal the range breaking upward before most forecasts caught up.
Beneath the levels, three flow-and-context series carry the real story. ETF flows are the clearest demand gauge, and a sustained acceleration or reversal there would move the odds materially. Exchange-reserve and whale-wallet data show whether the float keeps thinning, the quiet structural setup beneath the flat price.
And the broader crypto tape, driven by the same Federal Reserve meeting that dominates the Bitcoin outlook, is the macro backdrop that can override XRP’s own fundamentals in either direction. A reader who watches the legislative calendar, the two levels, and those three series has the full dashboard, and is positioned to interpret the month as it happens instead of reacting to it after the fact. XRP has spent months as a coiled spring; the value of the dashboard is that it shows, in real time, which way the spring is finally releasing.
The honest bottom line
XRP’s July 2026 is a coiled spring waiting for a trigger, and the trigger is on a calendar the market does not control. The token enters the month with genuinely bullish fundamentals, sustained ETF inflows, intensifying whale accumulation, thinning float, and resolved legal risk, all of which have failed to lift it out of a range because a market-wide drawdown has capped it and because the one catalyst that would convert fundamentals into price, legislative clarity, keeps slipping. The result is a compressed range between a heavily defended $1.00 floor and a stubborn $1.20 ceiling, most likely holding until either the legislation advances or the macro forces a break.
The single most useful thing to watch is the legislative calendar, because it is the swing factor that dwarfs the others: advancement toward the revised late-July or August timeline is the specific event that could ignite the accumulated fundamentals, while another delay or a disappointing outcome is the specific risk that could break the floor.
Beneath that, the $1.00 line is the number that matters; its defense the bull case intact and its failure the bear case realized. XRP has spent months proving that good news alone will not move it; July’s question is whether the one piece of news it is actually waiting for finally arrives, and honestly, the calendar, not any forecast, will answer it.
A closing word on the disconnect that runs through this entire outlook, because it is the most important thing for a holder to internalize. It can be maddening to watch a token absorb clearly good news and refuse to move, and the temptation is to conclude either that the news is meaningless or that the price is broken. Neither is quite right. What XRP is demonstrating is the difference between fundamental progress and the specific trigger that prices it, and for an asset whose demand is gated behind regulation, that trigger is legislative, binary, and outside anyone’s control.
The accumulated fundamentals are not wasted; they are stored, and stored potential is exactly what produces the sharp moves that follow long compressions, in either direction. The month ahead is less a question of whether XRP’s fundamentals are good, they are, than of whether the one catalyst they are waiting for finally arrives, and the discipline the situation demands is the patience to watch the calendar and the levels, not the noise, and to let the range’s eventual break, whenever and whichever way it comes, be the signal that the waiting is over.
XRP has been here before, coiled and waiting, and its history is one of long dormancy punctuated by moves that arrive without warning and travel far before anyone adjusts. That history counsels neither confidence nor despair, only readiness: the setup is loaded, the trigger is identified, and the timing belongs to a calendar in Washington, not a chart in a trading app.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and you can lose your entire investment. Price levels, forecasts, and the status and timing of pending legislation reflect information current as of July 9, 2026, and are subject to change; verify current conditions before making any decision. Always do your own research.
Meta (Nasdaq:META) executives and directors have unloaded roughly $130 million of company stock over the past six months. Across the same half year, they have bought exactly zero shares.
That selling might have been more palatable if they had, as executives and directors, helped the stock price go up over that time period. They did not.
META, trading on the Nasdaq, is worth less today than it was six months ago.
Worse, their stock sales clustered near the higher range of 2026, months before an AI spending spree knocked the stock down. Since the start of the year, the company has lost $60 billion in market capitalization.
Read more: YouTuber finds only 900 daily users in Horizon Worlds — Meta’s $36B metaverse
The heaviest seller was Chief Financial Officer Susan Li. Her Form 4 disclosures show about $95 million in sales.
Chief Operating Officer Javier Olivan also sold more than $22 million in smaller lots. Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth accounted for nearly $10 million more.
Directors Robert Kimmitt and Peggy Alford, plus Chief Legal Officer C.J. Mahoney, contributed to the selling pressure. Conspicuously absent was anyone buying on the open market.
Meta executives and directors filed 86 Form 4s with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) since January, and those documents carry more than 300 individual transaction lines. Transactions include option exercises, tax-withholding events, and stock awards, which are routine disclosures about executive compensation. Unfortunately, more than half of the transactions relate to open-market sales.
Meta reported Q1 results on April 29 and, on paper, knocked it out of the park. Revenue rose 33% to $56.3 billion. Earnings were $10.44 per share, but that figure was inflated by a one-time tax benefit.
Stripped of that, adjusted earnings were far lower at $7.31 per share.
Investors saw a company burning cash on AI faster than it could generate profit. Shares dropped more than 8% the day after earnings, their worst single session of the year.
Capital expenditures (CapEx) on AI, like CapEx on Meta’s deca-billion dollar metaverse initiative that went nowhere, may become a big problem.
Meta raised its 2026 CapEx guidance to as much as $145 billion, up from a prior ceiling of $135 billion. If it spends that, it will double the $72 billion it spent in 2025.
Li attributed the raise to AI-related shortages: “Higher component pricing this year and, to a lesser extent, additional data center costs to support future year capacity.”
Down 20% since August 15
Meta has fallen from an August 2025 peak of $796 to under $632 at yesterday’s close, a decline of 20%.
The stock bottomed near $520 in late March. Susan Li’s biggest sales landed in February above $630 — weeks before that slide began.
Insider selling, on its own, is not enough evidence to forecast the price of any particular stock. Executives sell to support their families, housing, taxes, diversification, or a variety of pre-planned purposes. Most sales are scheduled under plans that strip out discretion regarding timing.
Still, insiders sold at Meta, and none of them bought. As Peter Lynch taught the world, “Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise.”
Meta’s insiders in six months had over 300 transaction disclosures to place one bullish bet with their own money. Over that stretch they took roughly $130 million off the table and put nothing back on.
Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on X, Bluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.
Pi Network entered July 2026 at a fresh all-time low near $0.10, its most oversold reading since launch, facing a supply-and-demand collision the whole market is watching. On the supply side, 103.7 million tokens unlock this month. On the demand side, a set of Pi2Day product launches promises to create real utility for the first time. This is the levels, the collision at the center of the forecast, and the honest case on both sides for a token at its lowest ebb.
Summary
- Pi Network enters July near $0.10 as 103.7 million token unlocks threaten to increase selling pressure.
- Three Pi2Day products could create real token demand, but their impact depends on measurable user and developer adoption.
- Holding $0.10 support keeps the recovery case alive, while reclaiming $0.12 could trigger a broader rebound.
Pi Network (PI) enters July 2026 at the weakest point in its short public history, trading near $0.10 to $0.114 after setting a fresh all-time low, with momentum indicators showing the deepest oversold reading since the token began trading.
The price has fallen through support levels that held repeatedly in prior months, strung together a multi-day losing streak, and now tests the psychologically critical $0.10 line, below which lies uncharted territory. For a project that launched with enormous community expectations, the chart is a sobering picture, and the month ahead is defined by a single collision.
That collision is supply against demand, stated almost too cleanly. On the supply side, roughly 103.7 million PI tokens unlock in July, an increase of some 27 million over the prior month, adding fresh sellable supply to a market already struggling to find buyers, the same supply-versus-demand pressure that dragged the broader altcoin market through the first half.
On the demand side, the project has timed a set of product launches around its annual Pi2Day event, including a verification tool with a fee-in-PI model, a hosting product, and a sign-in service, each intended to create genuine token utility and, with it, genuine demand for the first time. The entire July forecast reduces to which side of that collision wins: whether the new products can manufacture demand fast enough to absorb the unlock supply, or whether the supply overwhelms the demand and pushes an already record-low token lower.
This prediction maps the collision the way a trader would: the price levels that matter now that the token is in uncharted low territory, the bearish case built on the unlock calendar and the broken trend, the bullish case built on extreme oversold conditions and the new utility, the analyst target ranges worth knowing, and the honest bottom line on a token at its lowest ebb.
None of it is investment advice; Pi’s volatility and its unusual mining-and-distribution history make it especially unpredictable, and readers should treat every number here as a scenario rather than a promise.
The levels that matter
With the token at fresh lows, the level map is unusually stark, because much of the price history that would normally provide reference points sits above the current price, leaving fewer prior floors below. Pi trades near $0.10 to $0.114, beneath the moving averages that now slope down and cap rallies, and the structure is decisively bearish on the trend even as it stretches to an oversold extreme.
On the downside, the defining level is the $0.10 psychological line, a round number the token is actively testing and whose failure would push Pi into territory it has never traded in, where the absence of prior support makes the next floor hard to define and a swift move lower more possible.
Just beneath the current price, the $0.110 area and the recently broken support that had held around $0.12 now act as the immediate reference points, with $0.12 having flipped from support to resistance after the breakdown. Losing $0.10 decisively is the bearish trigger that opens the widest downside, precisely because so little prior structure lies below it.
On the upside, reclaiming the broken $0.12 support is the bulls’ first task, and turning it back from resistance into support would be the first sign the breakdown is being repaired. Above that, the levels near $0.1228, $0.1344, and $0.1496 mark the resistance steps a recovery would have to climb, each corresponding to prior consolidation zones, and clearing them in sequence would signal the oversold bounce maturing into something more durable.
The structure, in short, is a token in a confirmed downtrend at an oversold extreme, testing a psychological floor with thin support beneath it and a staircase of resistance above, where the direction of the next significant move depends heavily on whether the month’s demand catalysts can arrest the decline.
The bearish case: the unlock calendar and the broken trend
The case for continued weakness starts with the supply calendar, because it is the most concrete force acting on the token this month. Roughly 103.7 million PI unlock in July, up about 27 million from the prior month, and every unlocked token is potential new supply entering a market that has struggled to absorb it.
Token unlocks are a scheduled, readable form of selling pressure, and when the demand side is weak, as a record-low price suggests it currently is, fresh unlock supply tends to push price down as newly liquid tokens meet insufficient buying. For a token already at all-time lows, an increase in the monthly unlock is a direct headwind, and it is the single most important bearish fact of the month.
The second bearish force is the broken trend itself. Pi has fallen through supports that held repeatedly, and a token making fresh lows beneath falling moving averages is, by definition, in a downtrend that has not yet shown a bottom, with each broken support becoming resistance on any bounce.
Sentiment has followed price down; the community enthusiasm that drove earlier interest has faded into fatigue, and the demand indicators that matter, trading activity and the appetite to hold rather than sell, have thinned. A token in this posture is vulnerable to the reflexive dynamic where falling prices beget more selling as disappointed holders exit, and the record-low price is itself a signal that this dynamic has been in control. If the July unlock supply meets this weak demand backdrop without the new products generating meaningful offsetting buying, the bearish path points toward a break of $0.10 and a move into the undefined territory below it.
Understanding the unlock: why 103.7 million matters
Because the unlock number anchors the bearish case, it is worth understanding what it represents and why the monthly figure moves, since the mechanics are specific to Pi’s unusual design. Pi’s supply was distributed over years through its mobile mining phase, during which participants accumulated tokens that remained locked, subject to release schedules tied to identity verification, holding commitments, and the network’s migration to its open mainnet. Each month, a tranche of these previously locked tokens becomes transferable, converting balances that existed but could not be sold into supply that can, and July’s tranche is roughly 103.7 million, up about 27 million from the prior month.
The increase is the part that matters for price. A larger monthly unlock means more new sellable supply arriving into the market than the month before, and unless demand grows to match, the additional supply weighs on price through simple arithmetic: more tokens available to sell, the same or less buying to absorb them.
For a token already at all-time lows, where the price itself signals that existing demand is struggling to absorb existing supply, an uptick in the unlock is a direct and quantifiable headwind. This is why the unlock calendar is the single most-watched supply metric for Pi, and why the July figure features in nearly every forecast: it is the one large, scheduled, knowable force acting against the price, and its size this month is larger than last.
The nuance the bears sometimes skip is that not all unlocked tokens sell. Unlocked supply is potential selling pressure, not guaranteed selling, and whether it actually hits the market depends on holder behavior: participants who believe in the project may hold their newly liquid tokens instead of dumping them, particularly if the new products give them a reason to use their tokens instead of selling.
This is precisely where the supply and demand sides of the collision meet, because the same products that aim to create buying demand could also reduce selling by giving holders a use for their tokens, which is why the month’s outcome is not a mechanical certainty but a genuine contest between a known supply increase and an uncertain demand response.
The pivot beneath the price: distribution to utility
The deepest way to read Pi’s July is as a test of the project’s central transition, because the token’s entire situation reflects a pivot that every large community-distributed project eventually faces. Pi spent its formative years on distribution: acquiring users through mobile mining, building one of the largest claimed user bases in crypto, tens of millions of participants, and spreading tokens widely through that process. That phase created supply and community but not, by design, much in the way of token utility, and the current price weakness is in large part the market repricing a token whose distribution vastly outran its usefulness.
The Pi2Day product launches represent the attempt to complete the other half of the arc: converting a distribution network into a utility network, where the token is used and demanded, not merely held and eventually sold. The verification product’s fee-in-PI model is the clearest expression of the strategy, because a service that requires spending PI creates a demand for PI that exists independent of speculation, the kind of structural, recurring buying that could, at sufficient scale, offset the unlock supply permanently instead of temporarily. The hosting and sign-in products extend the same logic into developer and application use cases. Whether this pivot succeeds is the question that dwarfs any single month’s price action, and July is significant precisely because it is the first real test of the strategy at the moment the token most needs it to work.
The honest assessment is that pivots like this are hard and most are gradual, so a single month of product launches is unlikely to fully resolve a supply overhang built over years, even in the bullish case. What July can realistically deliver is evidence, early adoption data showing whether the products attract genuine usage and generate real fee demand, and that evidence, more than the price itself, is what will indicate whether the pivot is working. A token can remain weak on price while its underlying utility begins to build, and the disciplined reader watches the adoption metrics beneath the price for the leading signal, because in a distribution-to-utility pivot, usage turns before price does, if it turns at all.
The bullish case: extreme oversold and new utility
The case for a bounce, or a bottom, rests on two pillars. The first is the extreme oversold condition, which is the strongest technical argument in the bulls’ favor. Pi’s momentum indicators sit at their most oversold since the token launched, a reading that historically precedes relief rallies because it reflects selling exhaustion, the point at which the sellers who wanted out have largely left and even modest buying can produce a sharp bounce. Oversold conditions do not guarantee a reversal; a token can stay oversold as it grinds lower, but they do mean the conditions for a snapback are present, and an oversold bounce from here could carry toward the $0.1228 and $0.1344 resistance levels quickly if any catalyst sparks it.
The second pillar is the demand catalyst the bears’ analysis leaves out: the Pi2Day product launches. The project has timed a set of releases around its annual event, and the most significant for token demand is a verification product built on a fee-in-PI model, meaning users pay for the service in PI, creating direct, recurring token demand instead of the speculative demand that has dominated the token’s history.
Alongside it, a hosting product and a sign-in service aim to extend Pi’s utility into real applications. If these products gain adoption, they represent the first genuine demand-side counterweight to the relentless unlock supply, the kind of fee-driven token sink that gives a token a use beyond speculation. The bullish thesis is that the timing is deliberate, the project is answering its supply overhang with utility precisely when the token is most oversold, a supply cliff of the kind that has stress-tested far larger tokens, and if the products deliver, the combination of selling exhaustion and new demand could mark a bottom near the lows. This is the pivot the entire project has pointed toward: from a mining-and-distribution phase that created supply to a utility phase that must create demand, and July is its first real test.
Three scenarios for July
The supply-demand collision produces three coherent paths, organized around the $0.10 floor and the demand response.
The bearish scenario is the unlock winning. If the 103.7 million tokens meet weak demand and the new products fail to generate meaningful early adoption, the selling pressure pushes Pi through the $0.10 psychological floor into the undefined territory below, where thin prior structure makes the decline hard to arrest and a swift move lower possible. A weak broader crypto tape would reinforce this path. It is the default if demand does not answer the supply.
The base case is a grind near the lows. Pi holds around the $0.10 to $0.12 zone, defending the psychological line on dips and stalling beneath the broken $0.12 support on bounces, as the unlocked supply and whatever demand the products generate roughly offset each other. In this path, the token consolidates at its lows while the market waits for clearer adoption evidence, neither breaking down decisively nor recovering, the most likely outcome if the product launches show promise but not yet scale.
The bullish scenario is oversold plus utility. Selling exhaustion at the most oversold reading since launch combines with genuine early adoption of the Pi2Day products to spark a relief rally, reclaiming the $0.12 support and climbing the $0.1228 to $0.1496 resistance staircase, with the move amplified by the thin float and any short-covering. This path requires the demand catalysts to actually deliver measurable usage, and it is the one the project has engineered toward, arriving at the moment of maximum oversold potential.
The targets on the table
Forecasts for Pi span a wide range and deserve extra caution, because the token’s short history, unusual distribution, and thin prior structure make confident prediction especially difficult. Short-term technical projections cluster around the levels named above: a downside case that breaks $0.10 and explores the territory below, against a recovery case that reclaims $0.12 and climbs toward the $0.1228 to $0.1496 resistance band on an oversold bounce or a successful product launch.
Analyst and forecasting-service targets for the month vary widely, from bearish projections extending the decline below the psychological floor to more optimistic scenarios in which the oversold condition and the Pi2Day catalysts drive a rebound toward the mid-teens in cents, with the widest bull cases requiring both a market-wide recovery and demonstrable product adoption to justify.
The honest reading of the target spread is that it maps directly onto the supply-demand collision at the heart of the month: the bearish targets assume the unlock supply dominates and the products underdeliver, while the bullish targets assume the oversold bounce and the new utility combine to arrest the decline.
For July specifically, the levels matter more than any single price target, with the $0.10 floor and the $0.12 reclaim as the two lines whose behavior will signal which side of the collision is winning. Given the token’s volatility and its record-low, thinly-supported position, the range of plausible outcomes is genuinely wide, and the disclaimer at the end of this piece carries more weight than usual.
What to watch as the month unfolds
For a reader tracking Pi through July, the signals divide cleanly into the two sides of the collision, and most are observable. On the supply side, the unlock’s actual market impact is the thing to watch: whether the 103.7 million tokens visibly pressure the price as they become liquid, or whether holders absorb them by holding instead of selling, which would show up as the price stabilizing despite the increased supply. Exchange inflows, tokens moving to venues where they can be sold, are the on-chain tell that unlocked supply is heading for the market instead of staying in wallets.
On the demand side, the product-adoption metrics are the leading indicator, and they matter more than the price itself. The specific things worth watching are whether the verification product attracts real users, whether its fee-in-PI model generates measurable, recurring token demand, and whether the hosting and sign-in products find developer and application uptake.
Announcements are not adoption; the signal is usage, and early usage data, however small, is the clearest evidence of whether the pivot is beginning to work. Above the two sides, the $0.10 psychological floor is the single price level whose behavior summarizes the contest: its defense keeps the bottoming thesis alive, and its decisive failure confirms that supply is winning.
Two context factors round out the dashboard. The broader crypto market, driven by the same macro forces weighing on the majors, is a backdrop that can lift or sink Pi regardless of its own supply-demand balance, since a token at all-time lows is especially vulnerable to a weak tape.
And sentiment, measurable in community activity and trading interest, is worth watching as a contrarian signal, because extreme pessimism at an extreme oversold reading is historically the environment from which sharp reversals begin, if a catalyst arrives to spark them. A reader watching the unlock’s impact, the adoption data, the $0.10 line, and the market backdrop has the full picture, and is positioned to read the collision’s outcome as it resolves instead of guessing at it in advance.
The honest bottom line
Pi Network’s July 2026 is a supply-demand collision at the worst possible moment for the token and, arguably, the most interesting one. On one side, 103.7 million tokens unlock into a market already at all-time lows with faded sentiment and a broken trend, a concrete and substantial supply headwind.
On the other, a set of product launches timed to the project’s annual event promises, for the first time, real token utility and fee-driven demand, arriving precisely when the token is at its most oversold reading since launch. The month’s direction depends on which force proves stronger, and the token’s thin structure beneath the $0.10 line means the downside is undefined while the oversold condition means the upside could be sharp if a catalyst lands.
The single most useful thing to watch is the interaction between the two forces: whether the Pi2Day products show real adoption, measured in actual usage and fee-driven token demand rather than announcements, and whether that demand is enough to absorb the unlock supply. The $0.10 line is the number that matters, its defense keeping the bottoming thesis alive and its failure confirming the bears.
Pi enters the month at its lowest and most oversold, which is simultaneously the most dangerous position, thin support below, and the position from which the sharpest recoveries historically begin, if demand arrives. Whether the project’s pivot from distribution to utility delivers that demand in time is July’s question, and honestly, the adoption data and the unlock’s market impact, not any forecast, will answer it.
A final word on holding perspective at a moment like this, because a token at all-time lows generates strong emotions that cloud analysis in both directions. The bearish extreme reads the record low and the rising unlock as proof the project is failing, and the bullish extreme reads the oversold bounce potential and the new products as proof a reversal is imminent, and both are overconfident. The honest position sits between them: Pi faces a real, quantifiable supply headwind this month, and it is simultaneously attempting a real, potentially meaningful pivot to utility at the point of maximum oversold pressure, and the outcome depends on adoption data that does not yet exist.
Neither the doom case nor the moon case is supported by what is actually knowable today, and the discipline the situation rewards is patience with the evidence, watching the unlock’s impact and the product uptake accumulate through the month instead of committing to a narrative before the data arrives.
For a project whose entire thesis now rests on converting an enormous user base into genuine token demand, July is the first chapter of the test, not the verdict, and the most useful stance is to read it honestly, as it is written, one week of evidence at a time.
Pi arrives at July carrying both the largest community in its category and the lowest price in its history, a contradiction that is itself the story: distribution succeeded, valuation did not, and the gap between them is exactly what the utility pivot must now close. The month will not close it alone, but it will show whether the closing has begun.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and you can lose your entire investment; Pi Network in particular carries elevated uncertainty given its short trading history and unusual distribution. Price levels, unlock figures, and product timelines reflect information current as of July 9, 2026, and are subject to change; verify current conditions before making any decision. Always do your own research.
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