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JPMorgan (JPM) cuts Coinbase (COIN) target to $252 after 4Q miss, keeps overweight rating

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JPMorgan (JPM) cuts Coinbase (COIN) target to $252 after 4Q miss, keeps overweight rating

Wall Street analysts from companies including JPMorgan (JPM) and Cannacord lowered their price targets for Coinbase (COIN) stock after the largest publicly traded crypto exchange missed fourth-quarter earnings estimates.

JPMorgan said weak crypto prices and trading activity weighed on volumes and fees. The bank maintained its overweight rating on the crypto exchange, but cut the price target to $252 from $290 in the Thursday report.

The stock, which is down about 40% so far this year, was priced around $150 at publication time in pre-market trading. It closed yesterday at $141.09.

Crypto-linked equities have had a choppy start to the year, broadly tracking the turbulent digital-asset market. Major companies such as Coinbase have seen share prices pressured as crypto trading volumes weakened and token prices slid. Bitcoin , the largest cryptocurrency, remains well below late-2025 peaks and is now down about 25% year-to-date.

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JPMorgan analysts led by Kenneth Worthington said higher operating expenses, up 22% year over year, and a shift toward lower-fee Advanced trading and Coinbase One subscriptions pressured results.

The analysts lowered their forward take-rate assumptions and cited a softer volume and market cap outlook in trimming the price target. The take rate is the percentage of transaction volume the company keeps as revenue.

Coinbase’s scale and profitability stand out in a volatile crypto market, broker Canaccord said, maintaining its buy rating while cutting its price target to $300 from $400 after lowering near-term estimates following the results.

While tumbling spot prices have weighed on the broader industry, the broker said Coinbase remains solidly profitable and is taking incremental market share as it expands its product suite.

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Analysts led by Joseph Vafi pointed to progress on the company’s “Everything Exchange,” growth in USDC commerce use cases and expanding decentralized finance (DeFi) applications on Base and Ethereum, in the report published Thursday.

Deribit, the derivatives exchange it bought during the year, was described as a strategic addition helping drive cross-sell activity outside the U.S. across spot and derivatives.

The analysts said global trading volume and market share are up roughly 100% from a year earlier, with recent records in notional volume supported by activity in gold and silver futures.

Canaccord expects a tougher first quarter for the industry, and sees Coinbase gaining market share and stepping up stock buybacks. It views the stock as near cyclical lows, with the new $300 target based on 22 times its 2027 Ebitda estimate.

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Read more: Coinbase misses Q4 estimates as transaction revenue falls below $1 billion

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Crypto World

CFTC Chair Says Agency is Ready to Oversee Entire Crypto Market

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CFTC Chair Says Agency is Ready to Oversee Entire Crypto Market

Michael Selig, US President Donald Trump’s nominee leading the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said the agency was prepared to oversee the entire $3 trillion crypto industry, with no timeline for Congress to pass a crucial market structure bill.

In a Wednesday statement about his first 100 days as CFTC chair, Selig said that the commission was “ready to take responsibility” for the crypto market and reiterated his claim that it was the sole regulator to oversee prediction markets.

His comments come as the US Senate considers the CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill that has been effectively stalled in committee amid discussions over stablecoin yield and other issues.

“The same regulatory clarity being delivered to the crypto industry is being developed for prediction markets, which can serve as powerful tools for information discovery and are regulated by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act,” said Selig.

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Under Selig, who was confirmed by the Senate in December, the CFTC has adopted many policies signaling that the agency would soften its enforcement and regulation of digital assets compared to previous administrations. In March, the agency announced a memorandum of understanding with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as part of efforts to coordinate on regulation, including digital assets.

Related: Crypto exchange KuCoin agrees to $500K settlement, ending CFTC case

Although early drafts of the market structure bill suggested the legislation could give the CFTC additional authority to oversee digital assets, the SEC is expected to continue regulating cryptocurrencies it considers to be securities.

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Lawmakers pressing CFTC on insider trading claims over prediction markets

US state authorities and federal lawmakers have been targeting prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged violations of gaming laws and claims of politicians using insider information to profit.

While many of the state-level actions continue to be litigated in court, Selig has claimed that the CFTC has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets and threatened legal action against any challenges to its authority.

In a Tuesday event, CFTC enforcement director David Miller said that the agency’s position was that event contracts on prediction markets were not “gaming” but rather “swaps” that fall under its purview.

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Some lawmakers have also proposed legislation to ban elected officials with insider information from profiting from event contracts after suspicious trades on military actions involving Iran and Venezuela.

Magazine: A newbie’s guide to surviving crypto winter