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AVAX breaks key pattern as $9 turns into major supply zone

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Avalanche AVAX Token
Avalanche AVAX Token
  • The Avalanche (AVAX) token traded around $8.84 as sell-off pressure kept prices lower.
  • Bulls have failed to reclaim the $10 mark and fresh declines may push AVAX to lows of $6.30.
  • Sentiment across crypto is largely bearish.

Avalanche (AVAX) is facing mounting resistance just below the $9 mark, where persistent bearish pressure has stifled recent recovery attempts.

The altcoin’s bearish outlook aligns with broader cryptocurrency market vulnerability, and having recoiled off the resistance level, technicals suggest fresh losses are likely.

Avalanche price recap

AVAX has navigated a turbulent path over the past month, with prices falling since hitting highs near $15 on January 14, 2026.

The decline, currently putting the token 39% off its 30-day peak, has come amid significant macroeconomic headwinds and sector-wide profit-taking.

Bears have largely taken control despite Avalanche C-Chain’s recent network milestones, including throughput.

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According to Ava Labs’ Martin Eckardt, the chain could hit over 4 million gas per second by next week.

The dip to under $8.30 on February 5, 2026, intensified the sell-off pressure, and bulls find it difficult to break higher.

In the last 24 hours, the token fluctuated between a low of $8.64 and a high of $8.96, with trading volume dipping 7% to 254 million.

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The past week’s performance tells a similar story of stalled momentum.

AVAX has seen two green days out of seven, with volatility under 1%, as bears defend the $9 threshold amid extreme fear readings on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

Avalanche price prediction: Technical picture

From a technical standpoint, AVAX has broken below a key weekly falling wedge pattern, with $9 acting as an immediate supply zone.

Further short-term bearish bias is from the weekly RSI at 30, with a move to oversold conditions hinting at a potential dip before another bounce on a volume uptick.

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A notable leg down will rely on key support clusters at $8.50–$8.25, a zone reinforced by recent lows. If prices breach this defense line, bearish targets include lows of $7.50 and $.6.30.

On the other hand, upside catalysts will include a reclaim of $9.38 and a retest of the short-term max pain projection at the $13.90 resistance.

If indecisiveness resolves in favour of bulls, with the weekly MACD forming a bullish crossover, the next target will be the dynamic resistance mark coinciding with the 50-week moving average (at $19.42 as of writing).

The 200-day moving average is offering resistance at $23.69.

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avalanche-avax-price-chart
AVAX price chart by TradingView

Avalanche’s lack of upside momentum mirrors Bitcoin’s struggle below $70,000. Crypto analysts see the overall market sentiment as still largely bearish, with forecasts for a potential dip to $50k for BTC.

Downside momentum will cascade across altcoins.

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Crypto World

CFTC Chair Says Agency is Ready to Oversee Entire Crypto Market

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CFTC Chair Says Agency is Ready to Oversee Entire Crypto Market

Michael Selig, US President Donald Trump’s nominee leading the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said the agency was prepared to oversee the entire $3 trillion crypto industry, with no timeline for Congress to pass a crucial market structure bill.

In a Wednesday statement about his first 100 days as CFTC chair, Selig said that the commission was “ready to take responsibility” for the crypto market and reiterated his claim that it was the sole regulator to oversee prediction markets.

His comments come as the US Senate considers the CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill that has been effectively stalled in committee amid discussions over stablecoin yield and other issues.

“The same regulatory clarity being delivered to the crypto industry is being developed for prediction markets, which can serve as powerful tools for information discovery and are regulated by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act,” said Selig.

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Under Selig, who was confirmed by the Senate in December, the CFTC has adopted many policies signaling that the agency would soften its enforcement and regulation of digital assets compared to previous administrations. In March, the agency announced a memorandum of understanding with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as part of efforts to coordinate on regulation, including digital assets.

Related: Crypto exchange KuCoin agrees to $500K settlement, ending CFTC case

Although early drafts of the market structure bill suggested the legislation could give the CFTC additional authority to oversee digital assets, the SEC is expected to continue regulating cryptocurrencies it considers to be securities.

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Lawmakers pressing CFTC on insider trading claims over prediction markets

US state authorities and federal lawmakers have been targeting prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged violations of gaming laws and claims of politicians using insider information to profit.

While many of the state-level actions continue to be litigated in court, Selig has claimed that the CFTC has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets and threatened legal action against any challenges to its authority.

In a Tuesday event, CFTC enforcement director David Miller said that the agency’s position was that event contracts on prediction markets were not “gaming” but rather “swaps” that fall under its purview.

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Some lawmakers have also proposed legislation to ban elected officials with insider information from profiting from event contracts after suspicious trades on military actions involving Iran and Venezuela.

Magazine: A newbie’s guide to surviving crypto winter