Business
June CPI: Inflation eased following recent surge driven by Iran war
Cheryl Casone and Scott Ladner discuss the weeks significant economic data, including June CPI, PPI, and retail sales. Ladner emphasizes watching big bank earnings for insights into consumer behavior.
This story about the June 2026 CPI inflation report will be updated with further details.
Inflation pulled back in June after surging in prior months due to the Iran war’s impact on energy prices throughout the economy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said on Tuesday that the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – declined 0.4% on a monthly basis in June and was up 3.5% from a year ago. The monthly decline was the largest since a 0.8% decrease in April 2020.
Expectations vs. reality
Those figures were cooler than the estimates of economists polled by LSEG, who predicted a decline of 0.1% on a monthly basis and a 3.8% increase from a year ago. They also represent a cooling trend from the 0.5% monthly increase and the 4.2% annual rise recorded in the May edition of the report.
So-called core prices, which exclude volatile measurements of gasoline and groceries to better assess price growth trends, were unchanged from a month ago and up 2.6% from last year. Both of those figures were lower than the estimates of economists polled by LSEG, who predicted a monthly increase of 0.2% and 2.8% from a year ago.
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The cost of living breakdown
High inflation has created severe financial pressures in recent years for most U.S. households, which are forced to pay more for everyday necessities like food and rent. Price hikes are particularly difficult for lower-income Americans, because they tend to spend more of their already-stretched paychecks on necessities and have less flexibility to save.
Energy prices fell 5.7% on a monthly basis – the energy index’s largest monthly decline since April 2020 – and are up 15.7% from a year ago. BLS noted that the energy index was the largest contributor to the decline in headline inflation, more than offsetting increases in indexes for food and housing.
Gasoline prices fell 9.7% in June and are up 26.7% from a year ago. Electricity prices were down 1% on a monthly basis and are up 4% from a year ago. Utility gas service prices rose 0.5% in June and are up 3% from last year.
Food prices rose 0.2% in June and are up 3% in the past year. The food at home index is 2.7% higher than a year ago, while the food away from home index is up 3.4% in the last year and both rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in June.
Energy prices fell 5.7% on a monthly basis and are up 15.7% from a year ago. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
The meats, poultry and fish index was 0.4% higher in June and has risen 5.7% over the past year. Beef and veal prices rose 1.2% on a monthly basis and are up 11.8% from a year ago. Egg prices increased 4.3% in June but are down 27.9% over the last year as supplies normalized after an avian flu outbreak. Prices for fruits and vegetables decreased 0.2% in June and are up 5.3% from a year ago.
Housing prices rose 0.1% on a monthly basis, which was the smallest one-month change since January 2021, and are up 3.3% from a year ago. Tenants’ and household insurance costs rose 0.2% from a month ago and are up 5.9% in the last year.
Transportation services prices declined 0.3% in June and are 3.4% higher than a year ago. Airline fares increased 0.2% on a monthly basis but are up 26.5% compared with a year ago.
Airline fares increased 0.2% on a monthly basis. (Mike Blake/Reuters)
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What experts are saying
Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said that the “Fed was losing patience with high inflation, and today’s cooler-than-expected report gives them room to breathe.”
“By surprising on the downside, it relieves immediate pressure for action, allows the Fed to gather additional inflation data over the summer, and makes it considerably easier for policymakers to maintain their current wait-and-see stance through the next meeting,” Zentner added.
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, said: “After today’s benign core inflation release, it appears less likely that the FOMC will raise rates over the next few meetings. However, we may still be at an inflection point, given the risk that the energy shock could spill over into other categories of consumer prices. A positive resolution with Iran before the end of the summer is becoming increasingly important.”
What does it mean for the Fed?
The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady at recent meetings amid concerns about elevated inflation, and with readings still coming in well above the central bank’s 2% target, policymakers are likely to leave rates unchanged at the next few meetings.
The CME FedWatch tool showed an 85.6% probability that the benchmark federal funds rate will remain at its current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% at the Fed’s next meeting in late July, up from 58.3% a day ago.
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The tool also shows a 0% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the end of the year, with just a 19.4% chance that rates remain at their current levels – with a 42.2% chance of a 25-basis-point hike and a 29.7% chance of 50-basis-points worth of hikes by the end of the year.
NFL legend and eMed Chief Wellness Officer Tom Brady and eMed CEO Linda Yaccarino discuss eMed’s mission on ‘The Claman Countdown.’
As GLP-1 weight loss medications continue to surge in popularity, NFL legend Tom Brady is getting in on the action, using his wellness brand to “democratize” the health care system in a way the world has “never seen.”
The seven-time Super Bowl champion has teamed up with eMed, a digital health company managing sustainable ways to offer GLP-1 drugs while helping employers reduce health insurance claims.
“There’s an epidemic in America, the disease of obesity, and how can we democratize health and wellness in a way that the world has never seen?” Brady said in an exclusive interview with “The Claman Countdown” Wednesday.
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Tom Brady before a game at AT&T Stadium Sept, 15, 2024, in Arlington, Texas. (Sam Hodde/Getty Images / Getty Images)
Serving as eMed’s chief wellness officer, Brady hopes to help people live better, healthier lives by harnessing the power of weight loss medications, lamenting America’s obesity epidemic.
“I love seeing people live a better life, live a healthier life, feel better, do the things that they want to do in the end. It’s always been a struggle in our country,” the football legend said.
“There’s no debate about the way that this medicine is working right now in terms of keeping people and getting people on their wellness journey started.”
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EMed CEO Linda Yaccarino previously said the goal is to apply Brady’s “rigor” to improve the health of the American workforce and minimize chronic diseases.
A woman injects a GLP-1 into her stomach in this undated photo taken at an undisclosed location. (iStock / iStock)
With more than 60% of Americans receiving health benefits through an employer, eMed aims to incentivize companies to cover GLP-1 medications for eligible workers, Yaccarino said.
“We do a great job of saving employers’ money and getting people healthy,” Brady said.
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“There’s finally, for the first time, a health benefit, attacking all these chronic diseases and a financial benefit to employers. So, it’s giving them incentive to cover the medications,” Yaccarino added.
Tom Brady shakes a young fan’s hand at Fanatics Fest. (Fanatics / Fox News)
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Yaccarino described GLP-1 medications as the “pharmaceutical revolution” of the modern age while outlining the support eMed provides to patients.
“Once we bring our members onto our program, we combine AI, technology and continuous clinical support so they stay with us,” she said.
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Once again Wall Street was surprised by a deflationary wholesale price report where the level of the so-called producer price index actually dropped by three-tenths of a percent. And it’s worth noting that after rising 1.1 percent in April, the PPI eased to 0.6 percent in May. And then the outright decline of three-tenths in June.
This follows yesterday’s deflationary CPI report. Both are a welcome relief from the inflationary reports of recent months. Real average hourly earnings rose 0.8 percent in June. That’s the best monthly real wage gain in 11 years, excluding the pandemic. Wall Street is also wrong about its prediction that the Fed will be raising rates, as these deflationary reports have taken rate hikes off the board, undoubtedly for the rest of the year I think.
Actually, my view is the Fed’s not going to change their target rates until Chairman Kevin Warsh’s various task forces report. There are five panels with some very smart people on them. They’re gonna look at the appropriate inflation measures, the Fed’s balance sheet, communication and forward guidance, economic data quality, and productivity.
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This is part of Mr. Warsh’s regime change. And it’s a very good idea. Yet my hunch is not to expect any big policy changes until those task forces publish their work, and the central bank figures out how to absorb the reports and then change them.
Meanwhile, even as President Trump steps up the bombing of Iran in response to the IRGC busting the ceasefire and the memorandum of understanding, inflationary expectations in our financial markets are actually coming down.
Indeed even the WTI oil price seems to have stopped rising. I think word money markets want to see regime change in Iran even more than regime change at the Fed. For the record, the two-year CPI break-evens have dropped all the way to 1.89 percent, that’s below the Fed’s 2 percent target, the dollar is strong, and precious metals are soft.
Meanwhile profits, productivity, and stock prices are all soaring. After the pro-growth incentives of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill of a year ago. So at least for now, we’ve got falling prices and a rising economy. Has Goldilocks returned?
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Monte Independent Investment Research: Michael Del Monte is a buy-side equity analyst with expertise in the technology, energy, industrials, and materials sectors. Prior to working in the investment management industry, Michael spent over a decade in professional services working across industries that include O&G, OFS, Midstream, Industrials, Information Technology, EPC Services, and consumer discretionary.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Wednesday that the U.S. Mint will begin striking a new $1 gold coin featuring President Donald Trump to mark America’s 250th anniversary.
Bessent said in an X post that the coin will honor “the enduring legacy of liberty” and serve as a “lasting symbol of patriotism.”
“Featuring President Trump, it celebrates the strength of American values, and the promise of a nation dedicated to preserving freedom for all,” Bessent wrote.
Bessent also shared an image of the coin, which shows Trump’s portrait on one side. The word “LIBERTY” appears along the top edge, with “1776 ~ 2026” along the bottom and “IN GOD WE TRUST” on the right side.
The reverse side features a presidential-style eagle shield design with “250” in the center. The outer edge reads “UNITED STATES OF AMERICA” and “ONE DOLLAR.”
US TREASURY PLANNING TO MINT $1 COINS WITH TRUMP’S IMAGE
President Donald Trump boards Air Force One at Morristown Municipal Airport in Morristown, New Jersey, on June 21, 2025. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)
Federal law generally bars living people from appearing on U.S. currency. The Trump administration has said the coin is allowed under a 2020 law authorizing special coin designs for America’s 250th anniversary, according to Forbes.
The announcement quickly drew reaction on social media, with some critics calling it a “vanity project” and supporters praising it as a patriotic tribute.
“The irony is incredible – while Americans are pinching pennies to afford the skyrocketing costs of groceries, housing, and healthcare, the Trump administration is producing coins featuring Trump’s face,” Rep. Jerry Nadler, D-N.Y., wrote on X. “Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers have plunged our country into a devastating affordability crisis, and now they’re indulging Trump in another golden vanity project.”
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pictured on June 4, 2026, in Washington, D.C. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., also criticized the move.
“Congratulations, we’ve entered the end stages. Eliminate the penny, plug the nickel, and make some commemorative gold coins nobody can afford,” Massie wrote. “I feel sorry for the folks who will be sold worthless knockoffs of this by the usual grifters.”
Meanwhile, others praised the coin as a fitting tribute to the country’s semiquincentennial.
“Whether you’re a numismatist, history buff, or just love a strong symbol of American resilience, these coins are sure to be in high demand. They’re a fitting tribute to the nation’s enduring spirit of liberty and determination on this milestone birthday,” one user wrote on X.
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A February 6, 2025, photo shows the US Treasury in Washington, DC. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)
FOX Business first learned last year that the Treasury Department was considering a plan to mint new $1 coins bearing Trump’s image as part of a push to commemorate the 250th anniversary of America’s founding.
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“Despite the radical left’s forced shutdown of our government, the facts are clear: Under the historic leadership of President Donald J. Trump, our nation is entering its 250th anniversary stronger, more prosperous, and better than ever,” a Treasury spokesperson told FOX Business at the time.
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