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Oil prices to hit $150? How Indian stock markets may react as Iran war rages on

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Oil prices to hit $150? How Indian stock markets may react as Iran war rages on
Oil prices have surged sharply in recent days, with some analysts warning that Brent crude could climb to $150 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a prolonged period amid the escalating Iran–Israel conflict. After a sharp selloff last week, Indian equities may face further valuation pressure in the near term due to heightened volatility, analysts said.

Crude oil prices crossed the key psychological mark of $100 per barrel last week, the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Despite attempts by the US administration to reassure markets, the conflict in the oil-rich Middle East continues to intensify.

Iran has warned that oil prices could surge to as high as $200 per barrel if the conflict escalates further. Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader and son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, described the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic “tool of pressure” that must remain shut during the conflict. In a message aired on state television, he also warned that US military bases across the region could face attacks as Iran seeks retaliation for casualties from the conflict.

Oil prices have risen amid growing expectations that the Strait of Hormuz may remain shut, disrupting global energy trade. The narrow 33-km waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman carries more than 20% of the world’s oil and gas shipments, making it one of the most critical chokepoints in global energy markets.

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What lies ahead for oil prices

Global crude oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel in the near term and potentially reach $150 per barrel if the war continues for over a month and geopolitical tensions remain elevated in West Asia, said Kayanat Chainwala, Assistant Vice President at Kotak Securities.


“Any prolonged disruption to this trade route will be bullish for crude oil and negative for other commodities, as it fuels inflation concerns and could delay interest rate cuts,” Chainwala said.
A report by Nuvama also noted that crude prices could climb to $150 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for four to eight weeks. However, such extreme price levels could eventually lead to demand destruction and trigger alternative supply responses.The report added that Asian economies are likely to bear the brunt of the disruption, as nearly 13 million barrels per day (mbpd) of oil shipments to countries including China, India, Japan and South Korea pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Systematix Institutional Equities said global crude markets have entered a phase of heightened volatility over the past two weeks, driven by the destruction of oil and gas assets in West Asia, which has added a strong geopolitical risk premium to prices.

“Tanker freight rates and insurance premiums for vessels passing through high-risk zones have also surged, significantly raising procurement costs,” the brokerage said.

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How Indian stock markets may react

The Nifty 50 fell 5.3% last week as the Iran–Israel conflict, a weakening rupee, persistent FII outflows and concerns over fuel supply weighed on sentiment. While Systematix expects near-term volatility to impact valuations, it continues to prefer Reliance Industries, Petronet LNG, Deep Industries and Gulf Oil as long-term bets.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, market direction in the coming weeks will largely depend on developments in the Iran conflict and the trajectory of crude prices, given their implications for inflation, corporate margins, the current account deficit and RBI policy flexibility.

“A firm dollar and higher US bond yields may keep FIIs selective and volatility elevated. Selective value opportunities may emerge in fundamentally resilient and domestically driven sectors, while energy-sensitive segments could remain under pressure if crude prices stay elevated,” he said.

He added that domestic institutional buying has provided some cushion, but a sustained market recovery would likely require clear signs of geopolitical de-escalation, stabilisation in crude prices and improved clarity on fuel supply dynamics.

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Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research – Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said market volatility is likely to persist as geopolitical tensions disrupt the energy market and keep risk sentiment fragile.

“Indian equities have seen a sharp correction in 2026 amid heightened global uncertainty, resulting in significant erosion of market value across segments,” Khemka said.

The Nifty 50 has declined over 11% so far this year, while the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices are down around 10% each. In March alone, the Nifty has fallen about 8%, marking its steepest monthly decline since the pandemic-driven crash of March 2020.

On the currency front, the Indian rupee recently hit a record low of Rs 92.45 against the US dollar as rising energy prices and risk-off sentiment heightened concerns about India’s current account deficit, given the country imports nearly 88% of its crude oil requirements.

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Elevated oil prices have also intensified concerns around inflationary pressures, widening external balances and pressure on corporate margins, prompting investors to trim equity exposure and shift towards safer assets.

“Rate-sensitive and cyclical sectors such as banking, financial services and automobiles have seen notable selling pressure,” Khemka added.

Looking ahead, markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to developments in the West Asia conflict, movements in crude oil prices and trends in foreign fund flows.

“Persistent foreign outflows and elevated oil prices could keep sentiment cautious, while any signs of easing geopolitical tensions may provide relief to markets,” he said.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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ManpowerGroup: The Recovery Can Now Support Earnings Growth (Rating Upgrade) (NYSE:MAN)

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ManpowerGroup: The Recovery Can Now Support Earnings Growth (Rating Upgrade) (NYSE:MAN)

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I focus on long-term investments while incorporating short-term shorts to uncover alpha opportunities. My investment approach revolves around bottom-up analysis, delving into the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of individual companies. My investment duration is the medium to long-term. Ultimately, I aim to identify companies with solid fundamentals, sustainable competitive advantages, and growth potential.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Baidu Q2 2026 Preview: Upgrade To HOLD; Focus On AI Catalysts (NASDAQ:BIDU)

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Baidu Q2 2026 Preview: Upgrade To HOLD; Focus On AI Catalysts (NASDAQ:BIDU)

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Astrada Advisors delivers actionable recommendations that enhance portfolio performance and uncover alpha opportunities, supported by a strong track record in investment research at leading global investment banks. With expertise spanning technology, media, internet, and consumer sectors in North America and Asia, Astrada Advisors excels in identifying high-potential investments and navigating complex industries.Leveraging extensive local and global experience, Astrada Advisors offers a unique perspective on market developments, regulatory changes, and emerging risks. The research integrates rigorous fundamental analysis with data-driven insights, providing a nuanced understanding of key trends, growth drivers, and competitive landscapes.The focus is empowering investors with timely research and a comprehensive view of industry dynamics. Whether navigating volatile markets or exploring new trends, Astrada Advisors remains committed to delivering superior insights to drive informed investment decisions.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Arizona Sheriff Leading Nancy Guthrie Search Wins Dismissal of $1.35 Million Lawsuit From Jail Inmate

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Nancy Guthrie

The Arizona sheriff leading the investigation into the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie has secured a legal victory of his own, after a federal judge dismissed a $1.35 million civil rights lawsuit filed against him by an inmate at the Pima County Jail.

Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos and the Pima County Sheriff’s Department were named as defendants in the lawsuit, filed in March by Christopher Michael Marx, an inmate at the Pima County Adult Detention Center. On July 1, an order from the U.S. District Court for the District of Arizona officially dismissed the case, according to reporting from Newsweek. The dismissal came without prejudice, meaning Marx retains the ability to refile the lawsuit in the future should he satisfy the court’s procedural requirements.

Marx’s lawsuit centered on allegations unrelated to the Guthrie investigation. According to court documents, Marx claimed his life had been endangered after a sheriff’s deputy moved between two units at the Pima County Jail, one of which had been placed under quarantine after an inmate tested positive for COVID-19. Marx alleged the deputy failed to properly disinfect himself before entering his unit, and further claimed that Nanos was not adequately ensuring the department’s deputies were taking sufficient steps to contain the spread of the virus within the facility. “My life was put in harm’s way by the actions of the sheriff” and sheriff’s deputies, Marx wrote in his complaint, adding that he could have contracted COVID-19 and “died” as a result.

The lawsuit alleged that Nanos and the sheriff’s department had violated Article 2 of the Arizona Constitution, commonly known as the Declaration of Rights. Beyond monetary damages, Marx’s complaint sought a formal apology from Nanos and requested that the department implement improved disinfection procedures for deputies working across multiple jail units simultaneously. According to court filings, Marx said he intended to use any awarded funds to purchase two apartment buildings that would provide six months of free housing for people experiencing homelessness.

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The case ultimately did not proceed on its underlying merits. U.S. District Judge Raner C. Collins had previously ordered Marx to either pay the required filing and administrative fees associated with the lawsuit or submit a complete application to proceed in forma pauperis, a legal designation that allows individuals to pursue litigation without prepaying court costs after their financial situation is reviewed. That application would have required Marx to submit a certified six-month trust account statement documenting his financial resources. The court’s order specified that if Marx failed to comply within 30 days, the court clerk would be required to enter a judgment dismissing the case without further notice. According to court records, Marx did not satisfy those requirements by the deadline, resulting in the dismissal.

While the lawsuit itself had no connection to the Guthrie investigation, its dismissal arrives as Nanos remains under intense public and media scrutiny in his role overseeing one of the country’s most closely watched missing person cases. Investigators believe Nancy Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of “Today” show co-host Savannah Guthrie, was abducted from her Tucson-area home in the early hours of February 1. The FBI has said the case is being investigated as a kidnapping for ransom, and the search for Guthrie has drawn sustained national and international media attention in the months since her disappearance.

In the days following Guthrie’s disappearance, multiple ransom notes were sent to her family and to media outlets. Recent reporting has indicated that at least one of those notes suggested Guthrie had died, though none of the notes have led to her safe return or resulted in the identification of any suspects in the case. The Pima County Sheriff’s Department addressed the ransom note reports directly in a statement posted to the social media platform X, saying the department had received information regarding potential ransom notes tied to the case and that every tip and lead was being taken seriously and forwarded directly to detectives working in coordination with the FBI. The department directed any further questions regarding alleged ransom notes to the FBI.

Nanos has also had to address other complications surrounding the high-profile investigation in recent days, including a scam that emerged online exploiting public interest in the case. The Pima County Sheriff’s Department issued a separate warning earlier this month cautioning the public about fraudulent social media posts containing QR codes soliciting money in connection with the Guthrie investigation, emphasizing that the department would never request payment related to the case or any other investigation.

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The dismissal of Marx’s lawsuit represents a narrow, procedural legal outcome rather than any substantive ruling on the underlying allegations regarding jail conditions and COVID-19 protocols. Because the case was dismissed without prejudice, Marx could still attempt to revive his claims by properly submitting the required filing fees or completing a valid application to proceed without prepayment, though no indication has emerged that he has taken steps to do so since the July 1 dismissal.

For now, the outcome allows Nanos to continue his work overseeing the Guthrie investigation without the added distraction of ongoing litigation tied to unrelated allegations at the county jail. The search for Nancy Guthrie remains active more than five months after her disappearance, with authorities continuing to work alongside the FBI as they pursue leads in what remains one of the more closely watched missing person investigations in the country. No suspect has been publicly named in the case, and a substantial reward, combining contributions from the Guthrie family, the FBI and a local crime-tip hotline, remains in place for information leading to her safe recovery.

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World Cup boosts consumer spending in host cities, Bank of America says

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World Cup boosts consumer spending in host cities, Bank of America says

The World Cup is helping to boost consumer spending around the U.S. in June, with host cities seeing notable gains, according to new data from Bank of America.

The Bank of America Institute found that consumer spending using credit and debit cards rose 6.3% from a year ago in June – which was the strongest growth in over four years – based on internal card data from the bank. That growth was largely driven by discretionary spending amid the decline in gas prices, as total card spending was up 5.6% when excluding gasoline.

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The firm’s analysis noted that the start of the FIFA World Cup 2026 on June 11 helped lift consumer spending for the month compared to the preceding period.

“The World Cup scored big for consumer spending in June,” Joe Wadford, an economist at the Bank of America Institute, told FOX Business. “Bank of America card spending showed healthy improvement toward the end of the month, due in part to a lift from the World Cup.”

FIFA, WHITE HOUSE MONITORING IMPACT OF CANADA WILDFIRES AHEAD OF WORLD CUP FINAL: SOURCES

England fans celebrate a goal at an Atlanta bar

England fans celebrate a goal during the match with DR Congo at an Atlanta bar. (James Manning/PA Images via Getty Images)

In looking at card spending since the tournament began, the Bank of America Institute data shows higher consumer spending, particularly at restaurants and bars, which may be attributed to the World Cup. Some of the gains are likely due to online promotions near the end of June, but occurred in July last year, and thus boosted the year-over-year comparison, the firm noted.

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The analysis compared brick-and-mortar spending in World Cup host cities based on zip codes with spending in other parts of the U.S., finding that some of the surge has been concentrated in communities where games are being played. Restaurants saw consumer spending rise by two percentage points in host cities, while it was flat in all other cities in that period.

“World Cup host cities saw a significant increase in brick and mortar spending, especially compared to the rest of the U.S.,” Wadford said.

HOW TO WATCH THE 2026 WORLD CUP FINAL THIS SUNDAY

France fans celebrate a goal at a New York abr

Fans at a New York bar react to a goal in the match between France and Morocco. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

Retail data that excluded restaurants also showed a gain for stores in host cities after the World Cup began, whereas non-restaurant retailers everywhere else saw slower spending growth once the tournament began.

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“From packed stadiums to busy restaurants, the World Cup created a tailwind for the economy. But two of the main beneficiaries of the World Cup were local retailers and restaurants,” Wadford said.

“To me, this is a particularly positive story, as it suggests that a major portion of World Cup-generated spending stayed in the community.”

A BILLIONAIRE’S BACKING – AND LIFELONG LOVE OF SOCCER – HELPED BRING MAURICIO POCHETTINO TO TEAM USA

Scottish Tartan Army fans at a bar

Scotland fans in the famed Tartan Army at a bar in Miami. (Ryan McDougall/PA Images via Getty Images)

The Bank of America Institute analysis also looked at the same internal card data by income level, finding that lower-income households in particular increased spending at local brick-and-mortar businesses in host cities, while higher-income households eased their spending slightly.

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Additionally, all income groups boosted their spending at brick-and-mortar restaurants when comparing the pre-World Cup period to the timeframe after it began.

“Positively, lower-income households provided the biggest boost to World Cup spending. Some of this is due to the fact that younger households skew lower income, and they were likely the main ones going out to celebrate this generational event,” Wadford explained.

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“But some of the boost is due to this broader story of an improving economy for lower-income households. For example, we’re seeing a stronger labor market and higher wage growth, which in turn is helping to boost spending for lower-income families,” he added.

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Netflix Stock Drops on Revenue Miss, Engagement Update

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Netflix Stock Drops on Revenue Miss, Engagement Update

Netflix Stock Drops on Revenue Miss, Engagement Update

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What are the implications of rebalancing by Japan’s public pension funds?

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What are the implications of rebalancing by Japan’s public pension funds?

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BSE, Sona BLW among 10 midcap stocks that rose up to 53% in 2026. Do you own any?

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The Economic Times

Midcap stocks have staged a strong comeback in 2026, with Oracle Financial Services, Solar Industries and BSE delivering gains of up to 53% as market sentiment and earnings outlook improved.

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Strong Earnings And A Goldilocks Economy Backstop Markets

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George Noble On Bonds, Private Credit, Consumer Stocks (& Tesla) Falling Apart

Strong Earnings And A Goldilocks Economy Backstop Markets

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Whale's Insight: Bitcoin's CPI Rally Is Fake, Built On Borrowed Money

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Bitcoin Holds Above $80K As Middle East Tensions Weigh

Whale's Insight: Bitcoin's CPI Rally Is Fake, Built On Borrowed Money

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Contango Silver & Gold Inc. (CTGO) Discusses Trends and Volatility in Gold, Silver, Copper, and Tungsten Markets Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Romeo Maione
6ix

Good morning, good afternoon or good evening, depending on where in the world you’re signing in from today. I think almost all time zones are represented in our fairly large audience. So I appreciate everybody for joining me. I’m pretty excited. I’ve got a pretty elite panel with me today to discuss the never-ending drama of metals prices, how they impact mining securities.

So I’ve got J.T. Starzecki, Executive Chairman of Guardian Metal Resources; Vincent Metcalfe, President and CEO of Pecoy Copper. I’ve got Shawn Khunkhun, President of Contango Silver & Gold; and Christian Aramayo, COO of Kuya Silver.

We’ve got a lot of metals represented today, should be a very good conversation. So here’s how today is going to work. It’s kind of a loose structure for a conversation to get to the bottom of metals prices, but I’ll also give each company an opportunity to speak to their projects. Now that being said, I don’t think we’re going to have time today for questions about individual securities. So I’ll just note everybody in the chat, you can feel free to ask questions, and I will pass them through to the teams afterwards. But it’s likely we won’t actually cover them during today’s event, just for your reference. But if there is a commentary in the chat that does speak to the conversation we’re having, I’ll try and work it in where I can. And so we’ll be able to incorporate some of that commentary as much as possible.

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