The honeymoon is over—for President Donald Trump and for crypto enthusiasts alike.

A new Morning Consult poll shows Trump’s approval slipping to 45%, with disapproval climbing to 52%, down slightly from two weeks ago and far below the 52% approval he enjoyed at the start of his second term.

By party lines, he still commands near-universal support from Republicans (86%), while Democrats (11%) and Independents (33%) remain skeptical.

Even as the Dow Jones surged past 50,000 earlier this month, voters aren’t cheering. Only about half believe Trump has effectively tackled health care costs and grocery prices, with approval ratings of 42% and 44% for health care and the economy, respectively.

Disapproval is highest on these fronts, underscoring that record-breaking stock indexes aren’t translating into everyday relief.

Last year, crypto investors largely approved of Trump’s crypto policies and associated them with positive market impacts. Today, it’s a more mixed picture — some crypto holders are skeptical or critical of his approach or disappointed by outcomes.

The disappointment extends to cryptocurrency markets, where the post-election “Trump trade” rally is fizzling fast. Bitcoin, which soared above $125,000 in October 2025 on election euphoria, is down over 28% year-to-date. Enthusiasm for projects tied to the Trump administration, including memecoin $TRUMP, has evaporated, with some losing as much as 95% of their value.

Industry insiders cite a mix of factors: policy outcomes have underwhelmed, proposed legislation like the CLARITY Act may centralize control rather than enhance decentralization, and the market’s risk-off sentiment has replaced the previous speculative fervor.

Even supporters like Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson have labeled the administration’s crypto impact “somewhat useless,” while Nobel laureate Paul Krugman called the Bitcoin crash “the unraveling of the Trump trade.”

A survey from The Information shows that roughly 71% of respondents oppose the Trump administration’s cryptocurrency policies, with 59% strongly against them. Only about 20% expressed support.

Interestingly, even among crypto owners—around 40% of respondents—opposition outweighed support, bucking trends from other polls where crypto holders leaned pro-Trump.

Critics cited several concerns: potential conflicts of interest from Trump and his family’s crypto ventures, the risk that a strategic Bitcoin reserve could weaken the U.S. dollar, and broader worries over fraud, crime, and market volatility in digital assets.

Investigators say reservists accessed classified information through service and allegedly used it to bet on future military operations.

Israeli authorities have indicted an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reservist and a civilian for allegedly using classified military information to place bets on the popular prediction market platform Polymarket.

According to The Times of Israel, Israeli authorities have indicted an IDF reservist and a civilian on suspicion of exploiting classified military information to place bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket.

Use of Classified Information

The indictments follow a joint investigation by the Defense Ministry, the Shin Bet, and the Israel Police, which led to the arrest of several suspects, including additional reservists. Investigators allege that reservists used sensitive information they were exposed to through their military duties to make bets tied to future military developments.

Prosecutors have filed charges against one reservist and one civilian for what authorities described as severe security offenses, along with bribery and obstruction of justice. A court-issued gag order is currently in place, preventing the release of further details about the investigation, including operational specifics and the full scope of those questioned.

In a joint statement, the defense establishment warned that placing bets based on classified information creates a real and serious threat to IDF operations and to state security. The agencies added that such conduct is treated with the utmost severity and that authorities will act decisively against anyone involved in the unlawful use of secret material.

The case comes a month after the Shin Bet was examining suspicions that someone within the defense establishment had used classified information to bet on Polymarket. That report drew attention to a Polymarket account operating under the name “ricosuave666,” which placed several highly accurate bets in June 2025 related to Israeli military operations in Iran.

According to the report, the user bet tens of thousands of dollars and made an estimated profit of around $150,000.

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Market Manipulation Concerns

Polymarket’s growing popularity has attracted both casual traders and high-profile participants. Among them is Vitalik Buterin, who recently disclosed earning about $70,000 last year on the platform by betting against outcomes he believes were highly irrational. Polymarket also hosted more lighthearted but widely shared bets, such as comparisons showing that the odds of confirming alien life in 2025 were higher than Bitcoin reaching $200,000, especially during periods of extreme market stress.

While the platform has seen rapid growth and occasional large payouts, it has also faced scrutiny over concerns related to manipulation and the potential misuse of insider information.

According to a recent study by researchers at Columbia University, transaction patterns on Polymarket indicative of wash trading began rising in July 2024 and peaked at nearly 60% of reported volume in December of the same year. Researchers found that the activity continued through late April 2025, and later climbed again to about 20% of volume in early October 2025.

The US Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are seeing sustained outflows as investors rotate capital into international equities. Both crypto ETFs have seen only 2 weeks of positive inflows so far in 2026.

The shift comes amid rising Treasury yields, a resilient US labor market, and record inflows into global ex-US stock funds.

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Money is Shifting to International ETF Markets

Over the past several weeks, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have moved into clear net outflow territory. Total assets have dropped sharply from recent highs near $115 billion to roughly $83 billion. 

Ethereum ETFs show an even steeper contraction, with assets declining from around $18 billion to near $11 billion.

This is not random volatility. It reflects capital leaving the asset class.

At the same time, international equity ETFs recorded their strongest inflows in years. 

January saw record allocations into global ex-US funds, which absorbed roughly one-third of total ETF inflows despite representing a much smaller share of total assets.

That signals major rotation.

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Institutional investors appear to be trimming exposure to crowded US growth trades — including crypto — and reallocating to cheaper overseas markets amid improving macro conditions abroad.

Meanwhile, stronger US jobs data pushed Treasury yields higher. Higher yields tighten financial conditions and increase the attractiveness of bonds relative to risk assets. 

Bitcoin and Ethereum, which trade as high-beta liquidity plays, tend to weaken when capital moves toward safer or yield-generating assets.

The combination creates a structural headwind.

Crypto ETFs were a major source of demand in 2024, amplifying upward price moves through sustained inflows. 

Now that mechanism is reversing. Instead of reinforcing rallies, ETFs are acting as distribution channels.

This does not invalidate the long-term crypto thesis. However, it weakens the short-term liquidity backdrop.

Until capital rotation slows or macro conditions ease, ETF outflows may continue to weigh on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market.

TLDR

• Kalshi has partnered with Game Point Capital to offer sports risk hedging solutions for teams and players.
• The deal focuses on hedging performance bonus payouts tied to milestones like playoff berths or championships.
• Kalshi’s CEO Tarek Mansour highlighted the advantages of exchanges in expanding liquidity and bringing competition.
• Game Point Capital specializes in sports insurance and has already executed hedges for NBA teams using Kalshi’s platform.
• Kalshi experienced a surge in trading volume, reaching over $1 billion during Super Bowl Sunday in early 2026.

Kalshi, a leading prediction marketplace, has entered the institutional sports risk hedging space with a new partnership. The collaboration with broker Game Point Capital will allow teams to hedge performance bonus payouts. This deal comes after Kalshi recorded over $1 billion in trading volume during Super Bowl Sunday.

Kalshi’s Partnership with Game Point Capital

Kalshi’s recent deal with Game Point Capital marks a significant expansion into the sports insurance market. Game Point focuses on team and player performance bonus coverage, an area that has grown significantly in recent years. By partnering with Kalshi, Game Point aims to bring more liquidity and transparency to the industry, which has traditionally been dominated by opaque, over-the-counter reinsurance markets.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour highlighted the advantages of using exchanges like Kalshi for hedging.

“Exchanges are a better alternative because they expand liquidity and bring competition,” Mansour wrote in a post on X.

This partnership offers an institutional solution to traditional markets and is expected to generate millions in trading volume from Game Point’s contracts alone in the coming months.

Kalshi has recently seen a surge in sports trading volume, contributing to the platform’s overall growth. The company reported a significant spike in activity beginning with the 2025 NFL season. By Super Bowl Sunday, Kalshi had processed over $1 billion in trades, showing how quickly sports have become the platform’s dominant sector.

The rapid growth of Kalshi is in line with the broader rise of sports betting in the United States. Companies like DraftKings are also seeing record revenues, particularly from states where traditional betting is still restricted. Kalshi’s ability to offer diverse trading options for major events like the Super Bowl has positioned it as a competitive player in the market.

Kalshi Faces Regulatory Challenges Amid Record Trading Volumes

Despite the strong growth, Kalshi is facing legal hurdles that could impact its future operations. The company is currently appealing a ruling in Nevada, where regulators have demanded compliance with state gaming rules. Kalshi also faces litigation in Massachusetts, where a court ruled that the platform cannot offer sports contracts without a state gaming license.

At the same time, Kalshi is challenging a cease-and-desist order from Tennessee, which temporarily halted its operations in the state. These legal battles come as the company continues to experience record trading volumes, including $9.6 billion in January 2026 alone.

The US DOJ (Department of Justice) has secured a 20-year prison sentence against the founder of a sprawling crypto investment scheme.

According to prosecutors, this scheme had defrauded more than 90,000 investors worldwide of over $200 million.

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DOJ Exposes and Dismantles $200 Million Bitcoin Ponzi as Founder Receives 20-Year Prison Term

In a statement released on Thursday, the DOJ confirmed that Ramil Ventura Palafox, 61, was sentenced after pleading guilty to wire fraud and money laundering charges.

Palafox was the founder, chairman, and CEO of Praetorian Group International (PGI), a multi-level marketing company that claimed to generate outsized returns through Bitcoin trading and crypto-related strategies.

According to court documents, PGI operated from December 2019 to October 2021, raising more than $201 million from investors worldwide. The company promised daily returns of 0.5% to 3%, marketed as profits from sophisticated Bitcoin arbitrage and trading activities.

In reality, investigators found PGI was not conducting trading at the scale required to generate such returns. Instead, it functioned as a classic Ponzi scheme, using funds from new investors to pay earlier participants.

Authorities said at least $30.2 million was invested in fiat currency, alongside 8,198 Bitcoin valued at approximately $171.5 million at the time of investment.

Confirmed losses reached at least $62.7 million, though prosecutors indicated the total financial harm could be significantly higher.

Lavish Lifestyle and Fabricated Profits: How Palafox Hid the Collapse Behind a Luxury Facade

To maintain the illusion of profitability, Palafox allegedly created and controlled an online investor portal that displayed fabricated account balances.

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Between 2020 and 2021, the platform consistently misrepresented investment performance. It falsely showed steady gains and reinforced investor confidence even as the scheme unraveled behind the scenes.

Court filings detail how Palafox diverted substantial amounts of investor funds to finance a lavish personal lifestyle.

According to prosecutors, he spent roughly $3 million on 20 luxury vehicles. He also spent approximately $329,000 on penthouse accommodations at a luxury hotel chain and purchased four residential properties in Las Vegas and Los Angeles worth more than $6 million.

Additional expenditures included around $3 million on designer clothing, jewelry, watches, and home furnishings from high-end retailers.

Prosecutors further alleged that Palafox transferred at least $800,000 in fiat currency and 100 Bitcoin—then valued at approximately $3.3 million—to a family member.

The scheme began to collapse in mid-2021 after PGI’s website went offline and withdrawal requests mounted. Although Palafox resigned as CEO in September 2021, authorities said he initially retained control over company accounts.

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Prosecutors described this case as one of the more significant crypto-related Ponzi schemes in recent years. The sentencing marks a decisive conclusion to a scheme that thrived on exaggerated crypto profits and global recruitment networks.

Parallels with FTX: How PGI Echoed a Larger Crypto Collapse

Despite differences in scale and sophistication, this case is similar in many ways to the FTX collapse and associated contagion. Both exploited the crypto boom, promising investors outsized, unrealistic returns:

• Palafox with daily Bitcoin gains of 0.5–3%,
• FTX through high-yield exchange products tied to Alameda Research.

Investor funds were misappropriated for lavish personal spending:

• Palafox on luxury cars, real estate, and designer goods
• SBF on Alameda’s risky bets, properties, and political donations.

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Both schemes used deceptive methods to maintain investor confidence:

• PGI with a fake portal showing steady gains
• FTX with hidden liabilities and inflated valuations.

PGI defrauded over 90,000 investors with confirmed losses exceeding $62.7 million, while FTX affected millions and billions in missing funds.

Federal prosecutions followed, with Palafox sentenced to 20 years in February 2026 and SBF to 25 years in 2024.

All these highlight a trend among bad actors in crypto while also revealing the DOJ’s ongoing crackdown on crypto-related fraud.

Solana price has broken its short-term bearish structure, signaling a potential momentum shift that could open the door for a bullish expansion toward the $95 resistance zone.

Solana (SOL) price action is showing a notable improvement in structure after breaking out of a local bearish downtrend that had controlled price movement for much of the week. This shift marks an important technical development, as Solana has now printed a new high, signalling a potential transition away from short-term bearish control.

While broader market conditions remain mixed, the change in local structure suggests that downside momentum is weakening. If Solana can continue to build acceptance above key value levels, the probability of a sustained move toward higher resistance increases.

Solana price key technical points

• Local bearish market structure has been broken, confirming a higher high
• Value area low remains intact, supporting higher-low formation
• $95 high-timeframe resistance is the next upside target, if momentum persists

The recent price action on Solana has produced a clear break in market structure on the lower timeframes. After a prolonged period of lower highs and lower lows, Solana has now pushed above prior resistance and established a new swing high. This move invalidates the immediate bearish trend and shifts short-term momentum back in favor of buyers.

Market structure breaks are often early signals of trend transitions, particularly when they follow extended consolidations or corrective phases. In Solana’s case, the breakout suggests that sellers are losing control, at least in the short term, and that buyers are becoming more aggressive at current levels.

Holding value area low is critical

Despite the bullish development, confirmation will depend on Solana holding above the value area low. This level represents the lower boundary of fair value within the current range and often serves as a key decision point for whether to continue or fail.

As long as price action remains above this level, Solana has the opportunity to establish a higher low. A higher low would further reinforce the bullish shift in structure and increase confidence that the breakout is sustainable rather than a short-lived reaction.

Failure to hold this level, however, would return Solana to balance and reopen the risk of renewed consolidation or downside rotation.

Higher highs and higher lows shift bias

If Solana continues to print higher highs while defending higher lows, the broader narrative within the current trading range will begin to shift. Multiple higher highs and higher lows would negate the prior bearish bias and suggest that the market is transitioning into a more constructive phase.

Such transitions often occur in stages, with initial breakouts followed by retests and consolidations before larger expansions take place. This underscores the importance of patience, as short-term pullbacks remain healthy within a developing bullish structure.

$95 resistance comes into focus

With the local bearish structure broken, attention now turns to the next major upside level. The $95 region represents a significant high-timeframe resistance area where price previously faced rejection. A move toward this level would align with typical follow-through behavior after a successful structure break.

Reaching $95 would also place Solana back into the upper portion of its broader trading range. How price behaves around this level will be critical in determining whether the rally extends further or transitions into another consolidation phase.

What to expect in the coming price action

From a technical, price action, and market structure perspective, Solana is showing early signs of a bullish continuation. As long as price holds above the value area low and maintains the newly established higher high, the probability favors further upside exploration.

In the near term, traders should expect some volatility as the market digests the structure break. Controlled pullbacks that hold above support would strengthen the bullish case, while a loss of value could delay continuation.

For now, the evidence suggests that Solana’s recent breakout is meaningful. If momentum continues to build, the $95 resistance level stands out as the next key upside target in the current market phase.