U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with several senators at the White House on Thursday to hear updates on the federal crypto market structure bill currently under negotiation in Washington. The discussion is expected to focus on progress toward passing the legislation, known as the CLARITY Act.

According to Politico, Senator Bernie Moreno said a group of senators will brief the president on the bill and outline “its path to success.” Senator Cynthia Lummis is also expected to attend, based on a Senate Republican aide’s account. Moreno said Trump has been closely engaged with the effort, framing the president as a key driver of legislative momentum.

Key takeaways

• Trump will meet with senators on Thursday to receive an update on the CLARITY Act and its prospects for passage.
• Lawmakers are aiming to advance the bill before the Senate’s August recess, with some calling the window a final realistic chance before midterm elections.
• Senator Thom Tillis told Politico that he is seeking agreement by the end of the week on unresolved parts of the bill.
• Prediction markets show relatively high odds of a Senate vote before the August recess, but lower odds that the bill becomes law in the same timeframe.

White House meeting signals push to move the CLARITY Act

The Thursday meeting comes as lawmakers race to finalize the CLARITY Act ahead of the Senate’s August recess. Politico reports that many legislators view the current legislative stretch as the last realistic opportunity to pass the measure before the midterm election cycle.

Moreno said senators will discuss the “entirety of the bill,” adding that Trump has been actively involved in the initiative. The remarks underscore how the effort is being framed not just as a committee process, but as a broader, top-level political priority meant to reach a decisive procedural outcome in the Senate.

Senator Thom Tillis, who has been working on specific “unresolved provisions” tied to the CLARITY Act, told Politico he hopes lawmakers can reach agreement by the end of this week. He emphasized the urgency of moving the legislation “across the floor” before the August recess.

What lawmakers are waiting for: a revised draft

Lawmakers are currently awaiting a revised version of the CLARITY Act. In an interview with Fox Business on Wednesday, Lummis said a new draft would be introduced within days and that she expects it to be placed on the Senate floor next week.

The timing matters because the CLARITY Act is still contingent on resolving outstanding elements. With the Senate calendar approaching recess, the revised draft functions as a gating factor: without language that can clear remaining objections, the bill may stall procedurally even if broad support exists among key legislators.

Cointelegraph reached out to Senator Lummis for comment, but the meeting and the drafting schedule suggest lawmakers are working toward a near-term floor push rather than a prolonged revision cycle.

Prediction market odds diverge between “vote” and “become law”

Market-based odds tracked by traders indicate a split between the likelihood of a Senate vote and the likelihood of the bill ultimately becoming law.

On Kalshi, traders assigned a 79% chance to the proposition that the Senate will vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess. That figure is reportedly up from 68.8% the previous day. The shift suggests that traders see improving odds of procedural progress, likely tied to expectations around the revised draft arriving soon and a potential floor schedule.

However, traders were less confident about the bill’s path to enactment within the current year. According to the Kalshi market data cited in the report, a $3 million prediction market gave the CLARITY Act a 36% chance of becoming law in 2026, and a 62% chance of doing so before the end of 2027.

Polymarket traders were similarly cautious about timing: the cited Polymarket figure put the chance that the CLARITY Act is signed into law this year at 39%. The difference between “vote” odds and “signed into law” odds reflects a common dynamic in legislative forecasting—procedural movement can occur faster than the final legislative, executive, and implementation steps needed for a bill to become law.

Why the next few days could be decisive

The immediate pressure point is not only whether senators can agree on remaining provisions, but whether that agreement can be translated into a revised draft capable of reaching the Senate floor in time for votes before the August recess. Tillis’s comments to Politico indicate that negotiations over unresolved terms are actively ongoing, and Lummis’s timeline for introducing a new draft within days points to a short, high-stakes window for consolidation.

For market participants, the key distinction is between near-term legislative scheduling and longer-term enactment probabilities. Kalshi’s relatively high odds for a Senate vote contrast with lower odds for the bill becoming law in 2026 and with Polymarket’s comparatively modest estimate for signing in the current year. Traders appear to be pricing in the possibility of floor action, while still discounting hurdles beyond the Senate’s vote.

As lawmakers await the revised draft and push toward next week’s potential floor timetable, readers will likely want to watch two things closely: whether unresolved provisions get settled quickly enough to maintain vote momentum, and how quickly prediction market odds shift for “signed into law” once the revised text is officially introduced.

A bitcoin address that had not spent a coin in eight years moved 5,908 BTC worth about $383 million on Thursday, data shows.

The wallet took in the coins when bitcoin traded at around $16,000, a level the market saw in December 2017 and early January 2018, within weeks of a cycle peak near $20,000.

The stack cost roughly $100 million then and is worth about $383 million now, a gain of about 284%. It was worth $726 million at bitcoin’s lifetime in October 2025.

The entry date is what makes the holding unusual. Bitcoin fell about 80% through 2018 to near $3,200. It recovered to $69,000 in 2021, then collapsed to about $15,500 in November 2022, which briefly put this position underwater five years after it was built.

The wallet stayed shut then, and again last year when bitcoin cleared $122,000, roughly seven times the entry price. It is opening now, with bitcoin near $64,800 and about half the 2025 high behind it.

Bitcoin’s funds are still lurching, however. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs shed $424 million on July 13, then took back $181 million the next day. Money leaving and returning inside 48 hours is not indicative of an allocator building a position.

As such, the ether bid is narrower. Of the $53.8 million that came in on Wednesday, BlackRock’s ETHA absorbed $45.3 million and its smaller ETHB fund took $4 million, leaving the other eight products to split less than $5 million between them.

Grayscale’s original ether trust, which charges 2.5% against BlackRock’s 0.25%, has now bled $5.3 billion since launch.

Ether also picked up a demand source that did not exist three weeks ago. Robinhood Chain, the layer-2 network the brokerage switched on July 1, pays gas in ether and settles to Ethereum, and it has been clearing more than $800 million in daily decentralized exchange volume, most of it memecoin trading.

Bitcoin is steadier than its ETF flows suggest, however. Nansen data shows exchange outflows holding through the escalation in the Middle East, with no meaningful rotation into stablecoins, the move that usually marks wallets stepping back.

Funding rates are near zero, which is suggestive of the overleveraged longs that fuelled June’s liquidation cascades have already been cleared out. Bitcoin dominance is 58.3%.

U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with multiple senators at the White House this Thursday to discuss the status of the crypto market structure bill—commonly referred to as the CLARITY Act—and how momentum for the legislation can be sustained.

According to Politico, Senator Bernie Moreno said a group of senators will brief the president on the bill and “its path to success,” with Senator Cynthia Lummis also expected to attend, according to a Senate Republican aide. The meeting arrives as lawmakers try to finalize a revised version of the bill before the Senate’s August recess.

Key takeaways

• Trump is set to meet with senators Thursday on progress toward passing the CLARITY Act.
• Lawmakers are racing to agree on unresolved provisions and move toward a Senate vote before the August recess.
• Senator Cynthia Lummis says a new draft will be introduced in the coming days and could reach the Senate floor next week.
• Prediction market pricing currently implies a higher likelihood of a pre-recess Senate vote than of the bill becoming law this year.

White House meeting signals push for urgency

The White House discussion is framed as part of a broader push to keep the CLARITY Act moving through the legislative process. Moreno, speaking to Politico, said senators would review “the entirety of the bill” with the president, adding that Trump has been closely engaged with the effort.

Moreno’s remarks underscore how the initiative is being treated as a political and regulatory priority rather than a routine bill. For investors and builders, the potential stakes are straightforward: a clearer federal market-structure framework could affect how crypto-related products and services are regulated, what compliance pathways look like, and how market participants prepare for enforcement risk.

The meeting also points to how timing has become central. The push is being designed around the Senate calendar, with lawmakers seeking what they describe as the last realistic chance to pass the bill before midterm elections.

Lawmakers seek agreement before the August recess

According to Politico, senators are aiming to reach agreement by the end of this week. Senator Thom Tillis—identified by Politico as one of the lawmakers working through “unresolved provisions”—said he is hoping negotiators can come to terms before the August recess window closes.

“I think it’s critical if we’re going to try and get this across the floor before August recess.”

That statement highlights the bill’s current status: while the legislative push is moving forward, negotiators still appear to be addressing remaining sticking points that could determine whether the bill can secure enough support to advance.

Lawmakers are reportedly awaiting a revised draft of the legislation, which is expected to clarify or adjust the provisions that have slowed progress. The existence of an updated draft matters because it can change what senators consider “vote-ready,” and because revisions often influence how stakeholders—such as financial intermediaries, exchanges, and compliance teams—assess operational readiness.

Senator Lummis: revised bill soon, Senate vote likely next week

In an interview on Fox Business on Wednesday, Senator Lummis said a new draft version of the CLARITY Act will be introduced in the next few days and that she expects it to be on the Senate floor next week.

The prospect of a refreshed text entering the floor schedule suggests that negotiations are nearing a stage where the remaining questions are either narrowed or resolved enough to allow a formal vote process to begin. For market participants, the practical implication is that uncertainty may be compressed quickly—though the exact policy content of the revised draft is what ultimately determines whether support broadens or fractures.

Cointelegraph attempted to reach Lummis for further comment.

Prediction markets: pre-recess vote seems more likely than passage into law

While lawmakers try to close the gap on legislative details, traders are also publishing their expectations through prediction markets. On Kalshi, traders have assigned a 79% chance that the Senate will vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess, up from 68.8% the previous day, according to the current market view on the platform.

At the same time, those markets still reflect skepticism about the bill becoming law within the same calendar year. A $3 million Kalshi market gives the legislation a 36% chance of becoming law in 2026, and a 62% chance of doing so before the end of 2027.

Polymarket traders similarly place the chance lower for near-term enactment, pricing a 39% probability that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law this year.

Together, these two sets of odds point to a common pattern in Washington timelines: a vote can be scheduled well before final enactment, but turning that vote into signed legislation can require additional steps, bargaining, or reconciliation of competing priorities.

What to watch next

The next key developments are the arrival of the revised CLARITY Act draft and whether it secures enough support to get scheduled for a Senate floor vote—especially given the compressed timeline ahead of the August recess. Traders and lawmakers will likely treat the updated text as the moment when remaining unresolved issues move from negotiation to decisional politics, with follow-through into final passage still far from guaranteed.

Some observers remain skeptical of the sustainability of this inflation-led bounce, arguing that the collapse in oil prices mainly drove the slower growth in the cost of living in June and that the recent bounce in oil makes that data obsolete.

“The 3.5% [CPI] number was driven by a 10% drop in gasoline through June, and that move had already reversed before the report was published, with Brent at a one-month high as the Hormuz situation escalates,” Ryan Lee, chief analyst at crypto exchange Bitget, said in an email.

“Markets are rallying on a June photograph, while July develops differently, and the July print will be the first to carry the war premium,” Lee added.

Jasper De Maere, OTC trader at lading market maker Wintermute, also called for caution, while acknowledging inflation-led bounce and profit-taking near $65,000.

“While the inflation data is genuinely constructive and while positive headlines are very refreshing, it’s worth noting the backdrop hasn’t cleared with U.S. strikes on Iran are into a fourth consecutive day, and the Fear & Greed Index only moved from 22 to 25, still Extreme Fear. One soft CPI print against an active military escalation is not the same as a durable regime shift in risk appetite,” he said in an email.

US President Donald Trump is set to meet with several senators at the White House on Thursday to discuss progress on the crypto market structure bill. 

According to Politico, Senator Bernie Moreno said a group of senators will brief the president on the bill and “its path to success.” Senator Cynthia Lummis will also attend, according to a Senate Republican aide.

“We’ll be talking about the entirety of the bill. I mean, obviously the president’s been very engaged in this bill,” said Moreno. “He’s the one who’s really driven the innovation that I think will pay dividends.” 

The meeting comes as lawmakers race to pass the crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, before the Senate’s August recess. Many lawmakers see it as the last realistic opportunity to pass the legislation before the midterm elections. 

“I’m hoping that we can come up with some agreement by the end of this week,” Senator Thom Tillis, who has been helping work through the CLARITY Act’s unresolved provisions, told Politico. 

“I think it’s critical if we’re going to try and get this across the floor before August recess.”

Lawmakers are awaiting a revised draft of the bill. 

In an interview with Fox Business on Wednesday, Lummis said a new draft version of the bill will be introduced in the next few days and expects it to be on the Senate floor next week. 

Cointelegraph reached out to Senator Lummis for comment.

Prediction market odds on CLARITY Act success 

Traders on prediction market Kalshi have put a 79% chance on the CLARITY Act being voted on by the Senate before the August recess, up from 68.8% the previous day. 

Related: Three US senators oppose CLARITY Act on ethics grounds with vote expected soon

However, traders remain less optimistic that the CLARITY Act will become law this year. 

A $3 million prediction market on Kalshi gives the crypto bill a 36% chance of becoming law in 2026, and a 62% chance of doing so before the end of 2027.

Polymarket traders, meanwhile, have put the chance of the CLARITY Act being signed into law this year at 39%.

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