Crypto World
Strategy stopped buying Bitcoin. The flywheel runs backward
Four weeks without adding a coin, two of them spent selling, a $1.25 billion sale authorization on file, and stock sales now funding a cash pile instead of Bitcoin. The most influential machine in crypto has shifted into reverse, and the entire treasury sector is watching its own future run at MicroStrategy speed.
Summary
- Strategy has gone four consecutive weeks without increasing its Bitcoin position, its longest such stretch in two years: two weeks of selling followed by two weeks of no purchases, with holdings parked at 843,775 BTC since selling 3,588 coins for roughly $216 million to fund dividends.
- The famous flywheel has inverted. The company is still raising money, $466.7 million one week, $263.5 million the next, but proceeds now build a US dollar reserve of $3.2 billion instead of buying coins.
- The trigger is arithmetic: MSTR trades below the value of its own Bitcoin, with enterprise mNAV under 1, making share issuance to buy coins dilutive, while preferred dividends, with STRC raised to 12%, must be paid in cash the model never budgeted for.
- The reversal is systemic, not just corporate: Strategy invented the treasury-company playbook that dozens of imitators copied, and its shift to selling coins and hoarding cash rewrites the template while Capital B reverse-splits and MARA liquidates.
- The question the market is actually pricing: whether this is a disciplined pause by a company managing through a 50% Bitcoin drawdown, or the beginning of the sequence skeptics always predicted, where the largest corporate holder becomes the seller of last resort.
For five years, the most reliable event in crypto was not the halving or the Fed meeting. It was Michael Saylor’s Sunday night chart. The orange dots, the coy caption, the Monday 8-K, another tranche of Bitcoin added to the largest corporate stack on earth: 108 purchases, 843,775 coins, a ritual so dependable that traders built indicators around it and dozens of companies built entire business models by imitation.
The ritual has stopped. Strategy has now gone four consecutive weeks without adding a single Bitcoin, its longest fallow stretch in two years, and the composition of those weeks is the story: two of them were spent selling, 3,588 BTC liquidated for roughly $216 million to pay preferred dividends, under a standing authorization to sell up to $1.25 billion more. The company is still raising hundreds of millions weekly through stock sales, and the money now flows to a $3.2 billion cash reserve instead of coins.
Every component of the famous flywheel, issue stock, buy Bitcoin, watch the premium expand, issue more, is still moving. It is simply moving in the other direction, and because Strategy wrote the playbook that a whole sector runs on, the reversal is not one company’s capital management. It is the treasury era’s first controlled test of its own exit ramp.
The machine, and what seized it
To understand the reversal, state the original machine precisely, because its elegance was always its fragility.
Strategy’s model was a premium harvester. The company sold MSTR shares through at-the-market programs at a market capitalization above the value of its Bitcoin, the mNAV premium, and converted the proceeds into coins. Each purchase grew Bitcoin per share, the premium justified itself as amplified BTC exposure with index membership and options liquidity attached, and the loop compounded: at the peak, the market paid well over two dollars for a dollar of Strategy’s Bitcoin, and the machine converted that enthusiasm into 45,000 coins in a single month as late as the spring, the fastest accumulation pace in a year. Layered on top came the preferred stock complex, STRK, STRF, STRC, perpetual instruments sold to yield-hungry buyers, whose dividends were comfortably serviceable as long as the common-stock machine ran.
Then the input variable moved. Bitcoin’s slide from its October peak near $126,000 to below $60,000 dragged MSTR down 82% from its high, and on June 27 the number that governs everything crossed its threshold: enterprise mNAV, the company’s market value including debt and preferreds measured against its Bitcoin, fell below 1. The market now values Strategy at less than its own coins. At that level the flywheel’s core transaction inverts: issuing stock to buy Bitcoin destroys Bitcoin-per-share instead of growing it, every ATM dollar is dilutive by construction, and the premium harvester has no premium to harvest. Simultaneously the preferred complex’s dividends, obligations in cash, kept compounding against a falling asset, with STRC’s rate raised to 12% in an effort to defend a price that had collapsed into the seventies. The machine’s two assumptions, a durable premium and trivially fundable dividends, failed in the same quarter.
What the company actually did
Strategy’s response, reconstructed from a month of filings, is more coherent than the headlines suggest, and the coherence is what makes it consequential.
In late June, the company paused purchases and announced a Digital Credit Capital Framework: a board-level policy requiring a defended US dollar reserve, a $1 billion repurchase program for its own preferred instruments, and, in the filing that broke a five-year taboo, authorization to sell up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin to fund dividends and interest. The first week of July it used the authorization, selling 3,588 BTC for about $216 million, the sales that reduced holdings to 843,775. The following weeks it sold no coins and bought none, while the ATM kept running, $466.7 million raised one week, $263.5 million the next, with proceeds routed to the reserve, which reached $3.225 billion, roughly 20 months of dividend coverage. On-chain and market observers who had spent June recommending exactly this sequence, CryptoQuant’s analysts prominent among them, graded the company as having substantially adopted the advice: stop buying, rebuild cash, cover the dividends, survive the drawdown.
Read as treasury management, it is defensible, arguably overdue. Read as signal, it is seismic, and markets trade signal. The company that defined itself by never selling has sold; the founder who answered every drawdown with a purchase now posts teaser charts, “What’s next?”, over an unchanged holdings number; and the equity sales that once meant more Bitcoin per share now mean more cash per share, a phrase no one bought MSTR to hear. The stock’s behavior confirms the regime change: shares rose on the news of the extended pause, investors relieved by liquidity rather than excited by accumulation, which is how the market tells a growth story it has been reclassified as a survival story.
The sector downstream
Strategy’s reversal would matter less if Strategy were merely large. It matters because it is upstream of an entire corporate category’s logic, and the category is visibly straining.
The treasury-company playbook, raise capital at a premium to NAV, convert to crypto, let the premium compound, was licensed from Saylor by dozens of imitators across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, and the license’s fine print always contained the same clause: the model works while the premium exists. The premiums are gone sector-wide. Strategy’s own compression below 1 put it, in The Block’s phrasing, into a cohort of treasury companies whose premiums have sharply collapsed, and the cohort’s weaker members are already running the exit sequence. Capital B, the European Bitcoin treasury pioneer, executed a 10-for-1 reverse split to keep its collapsed shares presentable. MARA, the miner whose treasury ambitions once rivaled Strategy’s accumulation, sold 15,133 BTC in March, over a billion dollars of coins, to deleverage. For context, crypto.news has also covered what miners did with the same drawdown. The marginal DAT is no longer a bid under the market; arithmetic says the marginal DAT is a seller, and the sector’s aggregate holdings, accumulated as a one-way flow through 2024 and 2025, now sit as overhang whose release schedule depends on dividend calendars and covenant math rather than conviction.
This is the channel through which one company’s capital framework becomes everyone’s market structure. Strategy alone holds roughly 4% of Bitcoin’s supply; the treasury sector collectively holds multiples of every month’s miner issuance; and the sector’s transition from programmatic buyer to conditional seller changes the demand curve Bitcoin’s price discovery runs on, at exactly the moment ETF flows have their own four-week negative streak. That is the other institutional bid and its own streak. The bull era’s reflexive loop, treasury buying lifts price, lifting premiums, funding more buying, ran in reverse for the first time this month, and the reverse loop has its own reflexivity: falling prices compress premiums, forcing sales, pressing prices. Strategy’s $3.2 billion reserve is, among other things, a firewall against its own participation in that cascade. The imitators without firewalls are the ones to watch.
The preferred stack, unpacked
The instrument class actually driving the reversal deserves its own examination, because the preferred complex is where Strategy’s engineering was boldest and where the constraint now binds.
Across 2025 the company built a capital stack unlike anything else in public markets: perpetual preferred securities, STRK, STRF, STRC among them, sold in the billions to buyers who wanted contractual yield adjacent to a Bitcoin balance sheet. The design logic was elegant. Preferreds raised money without diluting common shareholders’ Bitcoin per share, their dividends were modest against the scale of the coin position, and in the model’s happy path the common-stock premium machine would always fund them incidentally. The instruments effectively sold volatility insurance to income investors with the Bitcoin stack as collateral, and demand was strong enough that the company kept issuing.
The drawdown converted that elegance into the binding constraint, through three compounding mechanics. First, the obligations are cash and perpetual: unlike the coin position, which can wait out any winter, the dividends arrive monthly and quarterly regardless of price, which is how a company with $50 billion in Bitcoin found itself selling coins to make payments measured in hundreds of millions. Second, the instruments themselves broke: STRC, designed to trade near $100, collapsed into the seventies as Bitcoin fell, and the company’s response, raising the dividend rate 50 basis points to 12% and declaring a $99-100 price objective, defends the instrument’s credibility at the direct cost of enlarging the very obligations straining the model. A 12% perpetual coupon is distressed-issuer pricing, and the market can read it. Third, the stack inverted the shareholder hierarchy the flywheel depended on: with mNAV below 1, ATM sales dilute common holders to fund preferred payments, transferring value up the capital structure, the precise opposite of the accretion story that justified every prior raise.
The $1 billion repurchase program is the sophisticated response, and it is worth understanding why. With the preferreds trading far below par, buying them back retires a dollar of perpetual obligation for seventy-odd cents, mathematically the best Bitcoin-per-share trade available to the company, better than buying Bitcoin, at current prices. That the board authorized it is the clearest internal signal in any filing this month: management’s own arithmetic now ranks extinguishing its yield promises above accumulating its founding asset. For the treasury sector downstream, the lesson is sharper still, because the imitators copied the preferred playbook late, at smaller scale, with thinner reserves, and their versions of STRC are breaking without a $3 billion firewall behind them. The era’s defining trade was long Bitcoin, funded by promises. The promises are now the position, and Strategy, first into the trade, is first to show what managing out of it looks like.
The two readings, and the test between them
The bull and bear readings of the reversal are both fully available in the same filings, which is what makes the next quarter informative.
The disciplined-pause reading: this is what maturity looks like. The company saw the mNAV constraint, stopped dilutive purchases exactly as its own math demanded, funded twenty months of obligations, and built optionality, a $3.2 billion war chest that can resume buying at will, repurchase discounted preferreds at will, or simply wait. Nothing was liquidated beyond dividend needs; 843,775 BTC remains the largest corporate position on earth, untouched through a 50% drawdown that has bankrupted lesser structures. On this reading, Saylor’s teaser posts are honest: the machine is idling, not broken, and the resumption of purchases into a recovering market, funded by a reserve rather than dilution, would be the strongest possible refutation of the death narrative. The stock rising on pause news supports it; the market prefers a solvent accumulator to a compulsive one.
The flywheel-reversal reading: the model’s critics spent five years describing exactly this sequence, and it is now running on schedule. The premium was the product; it is gone. The dividends were the leverage; they now consume coin sales. The ATM was the engine; it now funds the dividend firewall, meaning new shareholders are diluted to pay old preferred holders, a structure with an uncomfortable genealogy. And the $1.25 billion sale authorization, only $216 million used, is the tell: the company has priced the scenario where it sells nine figures more, and a renewed leg down in Bitcoin, pressing the reserve’s 20-month runway against a 12% dividend rate, converts authorization into obligation. On this reading, the largest holder has quietly become the market’s most predictable future seller, and every treasury company below it in the capital structure follows the same gradient with less cushion.
The test between the readings is legible in advance. Watch whether purchases resume, and how they are funded: reserve-funded buying validates the pause; continued cash hoarding through any recovery says the premium era is understood internally to be over. Watch the mNAV line against 1, the boundary that decides whether the ATM builds or destroys value. Watch the preferred complex, STRC’s price against its defended $99-100 objective and any further rate increases, the dividend machinery is now the model’s binding constraint, and its cost curve is public. And watch the sale authorization’s utilization in each Monday filing, because the difference between a treasury program and a distribution program is, from here, a single 8-K. For five years the Sunday chart meant the same thing every week. The discipline now is reading what its absence means, and the honest answer is: the largest experiment in corporate Bitcoin ownership has entered the phase its design never specified, the one where the flywheel must prove it can stop without rolling downhill.
The historical rhyme worth logging before the FAQ: this is not the first time a dominant, levered accumulator defined an asset’s market structure, and the precedents are not comforting or damning so much as instructive about what to watch. The gold market of the late 1990s was shaped for years by central banks that had accumulated for decades becoming coordinated sellers, and the eventual solution was not abstinence but the Washington Agreement, a disclosed schedule that let the market price the supply instead of fearing it. Grayscale’s GBTC played the Strategy role of the prior crypto cycle, the one-way accumulation vehicle whose premium was the trade, and its premium’s collapse into a discount produced two years of overhang, arbitrage blowups, and, ultimately, conversion into an ETF that let the trapped supply exit in an orderly line. The pattern across both: concentrated positions built on premium mechanics do not unwind quietly by choice, they unwind on a schedule the market forces, and the difference between a crisis and a transition is disclosure. By that standard, Strategy’s current posture, weekly 8-Ks, a published sale authorization with a hard ceiling, a framework document stating the priority order of reserve, repurchases, and coins, is the Washington Agreement version of the problem and not the GBTC version: the supply risk is real, sized, and on a calendar anyone can read. Whether that discipline survives another 30% drawdown is the open question, but the market’s relatively calm digestion of the first corporate Bitcoin sales in the company’s history suggests the disclosure is doing its work. Panic needs surprise, and the filings have removed most of it. For market readers, crypto.news has explained reading positioning around MSTR and BTC and the macro regime pressing on the model.
Frequently asked questions
How long has Strategy gone without buying Bitcoin?
Four consecutive weeks without increasing its position as of the July 20 filing, the longest stretch in two years: two weeks that included selling 3,588 BTC for roughly $216 million to fund dividends, followed by two weeks of neither buying nor selling. Holdings have been unchanged at 843,775 BTC since the sales, with the last purchase disclosed in the week ending June 22.
Why did the company stop buying?
Arithmetic. MSTR’s enterprise value fell below the value of its Bitcoin in late June, with mNAV under 1, which makes issuing shares to buy coins dilutive to Bitcoin per share, the metric the entire model maximizes. Simultaneously, cash dividend obligations on its preferred stock complex grew while reserves had thinned, prompting a board framework requiring a defended dollar reserve before further accumulation.
Is Strategy actually selling Bitcoin now?
It has, in a limited and disclosed way. A June 29 filing authorized selling up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin to fund preferred dividends and interest, and the company sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million in early July under that authorization. No further sales have been disclosed since, and the remaining authorization functions as a standing liquidity mechanism the market now monitors weekly.
Where is the money from stock sales going?
Into cash. Strategy raised $466.7 million and $263.5 million in consecutive weeks through its at-the-market program, directing proceeds to a US dollar reserve that reached about $3.2 billion, roughly 20 months of dividend coverage. Under the new Digital Credit Capital Framework, the reserve and a $1 billion preferred-repurchase program take priority over Bitcoin accumulation while the mNAV discount persists.
What is mNAV and why does it matter so much?
Multiple to net asset value: the company’s market value, in enterprise form including debt and preferred stock minus cash, divided by the value of its Bitcoin. Above 1, issuing stock to buy coins adds Bitcoin per share and the flywheel compounds; below 1, the same transaction dilutes. Strategy’s enterprise mNAV crossed below 1 on June 27 for the first time, which is the single number behind the strategy shift.
How does this affect the broader treasury-company sector?
Structurally. Strategy invented the template dozens of companies copied, and its shift coincides with sector-wide premium compression: Capital B executed a 10-for-1 reverse split, MARA sold 15,133 BTC to deleverage, and the marginal treasury company has moved from programmatic buyer to conditional seller. A sector that was a reliable bid under Bitcoin now represents supply whose release depends on dividend calendars and covenants.
Is Strategy at risk of forced large-scale selling?
Not imminently, on disclosed numbers. The $3.2 billion reserve covers roughly 20 months of dividends, sales to date total $216 million against the largest corporate Bitcoin position in existence, and the company retains repurchase and financing options. The risk scenario is a prolonged further drawdown that erodes the reserve while the 12% STRC rate and other obligations persist, converting the standing sale authorization into a recurring funding tool.
What signals should investors watch next?
Four, all public. Whether and how purchases resume, with reserve-funded buying signaling a validated pause. The mNAV line against 1, which governs whether share issuance creates or destroys value. The preferred complex’s health, particularly STRC’s price against the company’s stated $99-100 objective and any dividend-rate changes. And each Monday 8-K’s disclosure of Bitcoin sales under the $1.25 billion authorization. This is not investment advice.
Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. It describes corporate actions and market conditions that change quickly, and holdings, prices, and policies cited reflect disclosures available at the time of writing. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or asset. Always do your own research. Information is accurate as of July 21, 2026.
Key takeaways
- Solana (SOL) trades around $78, gaining more than 2% this week.
- Spot Solana ETFs recorded $5.83 million in inflows, marking the second straight day of institutional buying.
- Derivatives data points to growing bullish sentiment, with the long-to-short ratio rising to 1.12.
Solana (SOL) remained steady around $77 on Wednesday, extending its weekly gains to more than 2% as institutional investors returned to the market.
Growing inflows into spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs), combined with increasingly bullish derivatives positioning, are improving the outlook for the cryptocurrency despite technical resistance continuing to cap upside momentum.
Solana ETFs record strongest inflows in weeks
Institutional demand for Solana showed further improvement this week. According to SoSoValue, spot Solana ETFs attracted $5.83 million in net inflows on Tuesday, marking the second consecutive day of positive flows.
It was also the largest single-day inflow since July 6, suggesting institutional confidence may be recovering after a quieter period.
If ETF inflows continue throughout the week, they could provide additional buying pressure and support a broader price recovery for SOL.
The derivatives market is also showing signs of growing optimism. Data from CoinGlass reveals that Solana’s long-to-short ratio climbed to 1.12 on Wednesday, approaching its highest level in more than a month.
The increase indicates that leveraged traders are increasingly positioning for additional price gains.
The stronger long positioning reinforces the improving institutional sentiment reflected in recent ETF inflows, suggesting both retail and professional traders are becoming more constructive on SOL’s near-term outlook.
Solana price analysis: Can SOL break above $80?
From a technical standpoint, Solana continues to consolidate after recovering above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
SOL is currently trading near $78.05, holding above the 50-day EMA at $76.76 and the horizontal support level around $77.06.
These levels continue to provide a solid foundation for the current recovery. However, the cryptocurrency remains below the 100-day EMA at $80.39 and well beneath the 200-day EMA at $92.87, leaving the broader trend cautious until these resistance levels are reclaimed.
Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 54, indicating modest bullish momentum without reaching overbought territory.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly below the neutral line, suggesting buyers have gained some traction but have yet to establish a decisive uptrend.
The first resistance level lies at the 50% Fibonacci retracement around $79.27, followed closely by the 100-day EMA at $80.39.
A sustained daily close above this resistance zone would strengthen the bullish outlook and could open the door for a rally toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $83.78.
On the downside, immediate support remains at $77.06, reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $76.76. A break below this area could trigger a decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $74.75.
If bearish momentum intensifies, additional support levels are located at $69.16 and $60.13, although those areas are likely to come into focus only if sellers regain firm control of the broader trend.
For now, improving ETF inflows, rising bullish positioning in the derivatives market, and resilient price action above key support suggest Solana retains a cautiously optimistic outlook, provided buyers can push the token above the critical $80.39 resistance level.
US authorities seized more than $25 million in cryptocurrency linked to international fraud networks that targeted victims across the United States and Canada.
The latest action is part of a wider effort that has recovered over $800 million.
US Agents Seize $25 Million From Crypto Scam Networks
US Attorney Jeanine Ferris Pirro said the seizure stems directly from the Scam Center Strike Force she launched in November 2025. She framed it as proof that pressure on international fraud networks works.
“This seizure is the result of months of tireless work by Washington Field Office investigators, who are among the best in the world at tracking down cyber criminals and tracing their illicit transactions,” Special Agent in Charge Tara McLeese of the US Secret Service Washington Field Office added.
Meanwhile, the office filed the five complaints in federal court on July 21. Each seeks to forfeit crypto recovered in separate fraud probes. Those investigations exposed several money laundering networks and thousands of victims worldwide.
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The five investigations trace distinct schemes. One involved more than 200 victims defrauded through online romance scams, with the complaint seeking roughly $12 million. In this case, Secret Service agents traced laundered proceeds through hundreds of intermediary wallets.
Another traced more than 270 suspected victim transactions tied to fraudulent investment platforms, seeking about $10.4 million.
A fifth case shows a secondary con. Scammers contacted a prior fraud victim and promised to recover lost money. The victim then made a series of payments, and the complaint seeks about $285,000, with more recovery ongoing. IP addresses across the cases pointed to China, Malaysia, and Cambodia.
US authorities have doubled down on enforcement against crypto-linked scams. In one case, the Justice Department restrained more than $700 million in crypto in April, allegedly tied to money laundering from crypto scams.
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The post US Seizes $25 Million in Crypto Linked to Global Fraud Schemes appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Bitcoin price is trading around $66,100, after climbing above $66,500 earlier in the session, in a bullish prediction environment. Despite the recent rebound, its volatility has compressed to a level not seen since 2016, making many traders uneasy. CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. noted on July 22 that Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility dropped to 28.3, down from 41.6 on June 25.
That places BTC in the bottom 8% of its volatility range since 2016. In other words, roughly 92% of trading days during that period recorded higher volatility. Such calm conditions rarely last for long, especially after a steady price recovery.
Meanwhile, open interest has not expanded alongside Bitcoin’s recent gains, suggesting leverage remains relatively light. That lowers the immediate risk of large liquidation cascades. However, once volatility returns, price swings can accelerate quickly and catch overleveraged traders off guard.
Now, the market is waiting to see whether this quiet stretch leads to a breakout or a sharp reversal. Key technical levels and macro catalysts will likely decide the next move. Until then, Bitcoin may stay calm on the surface, but history suggests that calm rarely lasts.
Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Reclaim $72,000 Before Volatility Forces a Decision?
Bitcoin has gained more than 2% over the past seven days, trading between $64,700 and $66,700. The recovery looks encouraging, but it still falls short of confirming a lasting trend. Meanwhile, the 20-day and 50-day moving averages remain below the spot price, offering near-term support. The 200-day moving average, near $72,700, remains the key resistance.
Adler’s threshold remains straightforward. If realized volatility climbs above 35 while Bitcoin fails to reclaim the 200-day moving average, selling pressure could return. At the same time, the Fear Index remains in fear territory. Gold and Treasury demand also suggest investors have not fully shifted back into risk assets.
Options traders reflect that uncertainty. Instead of making aggressive directional bets, many continue hedging against sharp moves. That cautious positioning fits the current low-volatility environment, where sudden breakouts or breakdowns often come without much warning.
In a bullish scenario, Bitcoin clears $68,000 and builds momentum toward the $72,000 to $72,700 area. A successful move above that zone could open the door to $75,000 and possibly $78,000. In the base case, BTC continues to range between $65,000 and $68,000, while volatility remains muted.
The bearish outlook returns if volatility jumps above 35 and the 200-day moving average rejects another rally. In that case, Bitcoin could revisit $61,800, followed by the $60,000 to $61,000 support area. If that floor breaks, $58,500 becomes the next level that traders will likely watch.
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Bitcoin Hyper Eyes Early-Mover Window as BTC Consolidation Drags On
Bitcoin consolidating in the mid-$60,000s with its 200-day MA nearly $7,000 overhead is not a compelling near-term risk/reward for traders chasing upside.
That ceiling is real, and the timeline to breach it is unclear. That dynamic is pushing some capital toward earlier-stage plays within the Bitcoin ecosystem that don’t require a BTC all-time high to generate returns.
Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning itself as the first Bitcoin Layer 2 with Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) integration. It is targeting Bitcoin’s core bottlenecks: slow transaction finality, high fees, and the near-total absence of programmability.
The SVM integration is the hook here; it’s designed to deliver smart contract execution speeds that reportedly exceed Solana’s own performance, while anchoring to Bitcoin’s security model via a decentralized canonical bridge for BTC transfers.
The presale has raised close to $33 million at a current price of $0.0136835, with staking available at high APY for early participants.
For traders watching BTC stall below a major moving average, research Bitcoin Hyper here to assess whether the infrastructure thesis fits the current cycle context. Also worth reviewing: Bitcoin Hyper’s presale trajectory as BTC and ETH post weekly gains.
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The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bitcoin Volatility Hits 2016 Low, Could Trigger Liquidations appeared first on Cryptonews.
Crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO posted on X on Wednesday that Bitcoin (BTC) is forming an Adam and Eve double bottom on its weekly chart, a pattern that is not yet confirmed but could open the door to $173,000 if it plays out.
The setup hinges on a decisive weekly close above $83,000, followed by a retest that holds that level as new support.
The Setup the Analyst Is Watching
According to EGRAG, the double bottom is forming inside the $51,000 to $67,000 support band, with an aggressive V-shaped low forming the Adam side and a slower, rounded base forming the Eve side. The neckline sits at $83,000.
Getting there, per EGRAG’s roadmap, means holding the current bottom, reclaiming $68,000, then breaking and retesting $83,000 before the move can extend toward $103,000, then $120,000 to $126,000, and finally $173,000.
“$83K is the gateway,” wrote the analyst. “Break it, hold it, and the Adam & Eve structure can trigger the next major expansion.”
However, he did warn that a weekly close below approximately $51,000 would invalidate the whole setup.
Other traders have also chipped in with numbers of their own, including Ted Pillows, who pointed to Bitcoin’s daily Supertrend flipping green, noting that the last time that happened, BTC gained almost 15% in four weeks, and a repeat would put it near $76,000 by August.
But not everyone agrees the move up will continue, one of them being ChartNerd, who called this rally a countertrend move back in April. According to him, the 200-week EMA near $68,000 could be the local top before a final drop into late Q3 or Q4.
A separate note from Axel Adler Jr. added some nuance: realized volatility has fallen 31% this month to its lowest since 2016, and leverage, measured by open interest against market cap, has declined for 21 straight days, a combination he says makes the current bounce of more than 11% off the June 30 low near $59,000 less prone to a forced liquidation cascade.
Meanwhile, Markus Thielen, in a report for BIT, said implied volatility on Bitcoin and Ethereum options has climbed back to 36% after dropping to 31% from 44%, a shift he read as rising demand for upside calls heading into the usually quieter summer months.
Why Bitcoin Has Been Climbing
BTC was trading near $66,000 at the time of writing, down slightly on the day but up over 2% in the past week and close to 3% in the last month.
Data from CoinGecko shows that at one point, the asset came within touching distance of $67,000 before it was dragged back to its current level, which puts it about 47% below its all-time high from October 2025 when it went past $126,000.
That bounce has come alongside a resumption in inflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs, after eight weeks of outflows, as well as improved sentiment following news that there has been some progress on the CLARITY Act’s ethics language.
Bitfinex has flagged $68,000 as the next test for the OG cryptocurrency. It says there’s a reaction zone between $67,900 and $68,300 where short-term holders may look to sell, and that a real breakout will need spot buying rather than speculation to hold.
The post Bitcoin Could Rally to $173K if This Pattern Plays Out: Analyst appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Upbit has put Zilliqa (ZIL) on delisting watch. The trigger was a critical Ledger flaw that exposed users’ private keys. ZIL fell about 10% as traders reacted.
Zilliqa is a layer-1 blockchain that launched in 2019. On Wednesday, it revealed that every version of its Ledger wallet app since launch carried the bug.
How the Ledger Flaw Exposed Zilliqa Private Keys
The app made a simple copying mistake. It zeroed out part of the random number that protects each signature. That leak adds up fast. After roughly five native transactions, attackers can work out a private key in seconds on an ordinary computer.
Exploitation began on July 19. A day later, an exchange partner reported ZIL stolen from a cold wallet. KuCoin then helped trace the bug, confirmed on July 21. The episode joins a string of key compromise attacks this year.
“Any account that has broadcast approximately five or more native transactions signed through the Zilliqa Ledger app should be considered compromised,” Zilliqa said in its disclosure.
Native ZIL transfers are now suspended. Affected keys must be retired because the leaked signatures live on-chain forever. Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) transactions and software wallets are safe.
Upbit Review Puts ZIL Trading Support at Risk
Upbit acted under Korea’s Virtual Asset User Protection Act, a 2024 investor safety law. The tag covers the ZIL/KRW and ZIL/BTC pairs. Deposits and withdrawals have been frozen since July 20, per the exchange’s notice. The review runs until the week of August 17.
Risk labels like this often hit prices hard. Wanchain fell 34% after Binance’s monitoring tag. Flow’s backers even went to court over Korean exchange delistings.
ZIL now trades near $0.0025, per ZIL markets data. It hit a record low of $0.00235 on Wednesday. The token is down about 17% in a week and 99% from its May 2021 peak. Its market cap sits near $49 million.
Zilliqa has promised a recovery plan for affected balances. What that plan delivers may decide whether Upbit lifts the watch or ends trading support.
The post Upbit Puts Altcoin at Risk of Delisting Following Critical Ledger Flaw appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Solana has started preparing validators for Alpenglow, a major upgrade that aims to make transactions final much faster.
Today, Solana can take about 12 seconds to fully confirm a block. Alpenglow aims to cut that time to around 150 milliseconds. In simple terms, a payment or trade could become final almost instantly.
The upgrade changes how validators confirm activity on the network. Validators are independent computers that check transactions and agree on the correct version of the blockchain.
How Solana is Changing with Alpenglow
Under the current system, validators send large amounts of voting data to the network. Alpenglow will combine many of those votes into one small digital certificate.
For example, it is similar to replacing hundreds of separate approval letters with one signed document that shows everyone has agreed. This reduces the amount of data Solana needs to process.
As a result, the network should have more space for normal transactions. This could help trading platforms, payment apps, and DeFi services process activity faster during busy periods.
Validators must first register new BLS public keys. Solana expects to roll out the upgrade in stages between August and October 2026, although the timetable could change during testing.
Solana’s Price Reacts Ahead of the Upgrade
SOL currently trades near $77, giving it a market capitalization of about $45 billion and a rank of seventh among cryptocurrencies.
The token has dropped 61% over the past year. It has still gained nearly 5% over the past month, a mixed setup for its current price outlook.
What Comes Next Before Mainnet Goes Live
Alpenglow’s activation window still runs from August through October 2026, and Solana has not set an exact date within that range.
The upgrade cannot switch on until enough validators register their keys and the Validator Admission Ticket (VAT) is active. The VAT checks each key before a validator can vote under the new system.
Solana also rolled out governance voting tools this month alongside its Securitize listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Analysts tracking Solana’s seasonal price patterns note that past upgrades have sometimes preceded renewed trading activity. That pattern has not held every time. Whether Alpenglow repeats it will depend on how smoothly validators clear registration before the window closes in October.
The post Solana Prepares for the Alpenglow Upgrade. How Will SOL React? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Gauntlet, a DeFi risk management and vault curation firm with $1.42 billion in assets under advisement, closed a $125 million Series C funding round with SBI Holdings, the Japanese financial conglomerate, as the sole investor, Gauntlet said on X Thursday. The firm, founded by chief executive Tarun… Read the full story at The Defiant
Prediction market platform Kalshi rolled out its U.S. “Midterms Hub” as it seeks to position itself as the primary reference for election odds in the U.S
The new hub will allow users to observe the outcomes speculators expect in individual U.S. Senate and House of Representatives as the country heads to elections in November, Kalshi said in a press release sent Wednesday.
Kalshi said the Midterms Hub will provide a live snapshot of where users are willing to place their bet at any given time. “It’s designed as the one-stop-shop for state and federal election forecasting picture of where a race stands,” Kalshi said.
The outcomes are based on the latest odds for each market and across a map of the U.S., Kalshi said in the statement.
The hub will also feature polling averages, so potential bettors can see how the prediction market odds compare with what statistical surveys of voters are showing, the latest Federal Election Commission fundraising reports for individual candidates, and curated news and analysis from various outlets.
The announcement follows news reports that Kalshi Inc. is seeking regulatory approval with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to expand its perpetual contracts outside of crypto.
The US Department of Justice (DOJ) has filed five civil forfeiture complaints seeking more than $25 million in crypto allegedly tied to international investment, romance and recovery scams targeting victims in Canada and the United States.
On Tuesday, the US Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia and the US Secret Service’s Washington Field Office said that the assets were recovered through separate investigations by the Cyber Fraud Task Force. Investigators identified several laundering networks and confirmed thousands of victims worldwide who were misled into believing they were making legitimate digital asset investments.
The action highlights the growing scale of crypto-enabled romance and investment scams, which often combine social engineering with fraudulent trading platforms and layered wallet transfers to conceal stolen funds.
The largest complaint seeks about $12.1 million linked to romance schemes that defrauded more than 200 victims, with proceeds routed through intermediary addresses and commingled with other victim funds. Another seeks $10.4 million traced to more than 270 suspected victim transactions, while three smaller cases involved fake investment accounts and a secondary scam offering to recover previously stolen funds.
The DOJ said the launderers were predominantly located in Southeast Asia, with related IP addresses in China, Malaysia and Cambodia.
Crypto romance scams face global enforcement push
The complaints follow a recent Interpol-coordinated operation targeting social engineering scams and financial networks used to launder their proceeds. Operation First Light 2026 involved 97 countries and territories, resulted in 5,811 arrests and the interception of $283 million in illicit assets. Interpol said the operation identified more than 142,000 victims and blocked more than 31,000 bank accounts.
As part of the operation, Thai authorities uncovered a network that allegedly converted romance-scam proceeds into crypto and used cross-chain token swaps to obscure the trail. A wallet associated with one suspected money launderer processed more than $122.5 million in crypto over 10 months.
Related: DOJ moves to dismiss charges against alleged $722M BitClub fraudster: Report
US authorities have also pursued crypto assets linked to similar schemes. In February, federal agents seized over $61 million in USDT stablecoin from addresses allegedly used to launder proceeds from fraudulent investment platforms.
Investigators said scammers first gained trust through romantic relationships, then directed them to fake trading platforms before moving their money through multiple wallets.
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Ethereum price has climbed from $1,800 to an intraday high near $1,945 after a technology-led Wall Street rebound revived risk appetite, although resistance below $2,000 has kept traders cautious.
Summary
- Ethereum price holds above $1,900 after a Nasdaq-led rebound lifted risk appetite.
- Renewed ETF inflows and short liquidations could support a break above $2,000.
- A drop below $1,859 would weaken the recovery and expose $1,828 support.
According to data from crypto.news, Ethereum (ETH) price traded near $1,929 at the time of writing, about 6% above its July 21 low. Buyers initially followed U.S. equities higher as the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.3% and the S&P 500 added 0.9%, led by semiconductor and artificial intelligence stocks. Micron rose 12.2%, while Nvidia advanced 2%. Notably, enthusiasm around upcoming technology earnings drove the session.
Institutional flows supplied another source of demand. U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds recorded $37.47 million in net inflows during the latest session, according to SoSoValue. BlackRock’s ETHA accounted for $52.7 million, partly offset by outflows from Fidelity’s FETH.
Momentum also improved against Bitcoin. Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that ETH has outperformed BTC during the third quarter after falling 29.26% in the first quarter and another 25.28% in the second. CoinGlass data shared by the trader showed Ethereum up 22.98% so far in Q3, compared with an average third-quarter return of 8.86% since 2016.
According to Daan, the rebound followed Ethereum’s weakest first half since 2022, making the recovery less unusual despite Q3’s historically slow performance.
“In the end BTC will have to lead the market though,” Daan wrote.
Bitcoin’s ability to retain its recent gains therefore remains relevant to ETH’s next move. A fresh Bitcoin sell-off could drain demand from altcoins even if Ethereum continues to outperform on a relative basis.
Ethereum price has retained a path toward $2,000
Ethereum’s daily chart has formed an ascending channel from the late-June low near $1,514. Price now trades above the channel’s lower boundary and the 20-day simple moving average at $1,828. The rising support line has produced a sequence of higher lows, while the upper boundary leaves room for a move toward $2,080 if buyers clear the current ceiling.
The $1,945–$1,953 area presents the first obstacle. ETH has tested the region twice without securing a daily close above it, and the 4-hour Fibonacci structure places its full recovery level at $1,953. A close beyond that price would expose the $1,981 100-day SMA, followed by the psychological $2,000 level.
Ethereum’s daily RSI has reached 64.36, above its signal average of 59.67 but below the conventional overbought threshold of 70. The reading leaves room for another advance, though buyers no longer have the deeply discounted conditions seen around the June low.
On the 4-hour chart, RSI stands at 63.29, while Stochastic RSI has dropped to 52.86 beneath its 60.72 signal line. The difference shows that the primary advance remains intact even as very short-term momentum has eased after the rejection near $1,945. Consolidation above rising trendline support would preserve the higher-low structure.
Liquidation data places the largest nearby leverage pool between $1,950 and $1,960. CoinGlass’s one-week heatmap shows the band as the brightest concentration above the market, with additional liquidity near $1,980 and $2,000. A break through $1,953 could force short liquidations and accelerate the move toward the round-number target.
Below the market, leverage clusters sit around $1,900, $1,880 and $1,840. The $1,900 zone has already acted as intraday support, while the 4-hour Fibonacci retracement identifies $1,859 as the next major level. Trader Ted Pillows placed the key support range slightly higher, between $1,870 and $1,900.
“If the $1,870–$1,900 level holds, Ethereum could soon rally above $2,000.”
Loss of $1,859 would weaken Ethereum’s recovery
Ethereum’s bullish setup would lose strength if price closes below the $1,870–$1,900 demand zone and breaks the 4-hour trendline. The next support rests at $1,859, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Failure there would expose the daily 20-day SMA at $1,828 and the lower liquidation pocket near $1,840.
A deeper decline below $1,828 would break the sequence of higher lows and place $1,785 back in view. The 4-hour chart identifies that level as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, while the daily 50-day and 50-week averages sit much lower at $1,734. Those levels would become relevant if risk appetite deteriorates sharply.
Macro conditions remain the main external threat. Brent crude reached $91.01 on July 21 as the U.S.-Iran conflict pushed energy prices higher. Expensive oil could revive inflation concerns and lift Treasury yields, which would reduce demand for high-beta assets such as Ethereum.
For now, ETH retains its ascending structure above $1,900. A daily close beyond $1,953 would strengthen the case for $2,000, while a break below $1,859 would invalidate the immediate breakout attempt and increase the risk of a return toward $1,828.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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