Bitcoin may be nearing a more stable trading base, but at least one prominent asset manager says investors shouldn’t pin the next major upside cycle on the same drivers that defined earlier booms. In a new write-up, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan argues that the next bull market will be powered by deeper TradFi-to-crypto integration—specifically by platforms that can bring crypto’s 24/7 trading features into mainstream financial workflows.

Hougan points to Hyperliquid’s widening footprint and Robinhood’s push into crypto infrastructure as two concrete examples. In parallel, Bitwise data cited by Hougan and a separate X post from Bitwise research head Andre Dragosch suggest that “apparent demand” for BTC may be starting to improve after a prolonged period of weakness.

Key takeaways

• Matt Hougan (Bitwise) says the next crypto bull market is more likely to be driven by TradFi integrations than by purely crypto-native catalysts.
• He highlights Hyperliquid’s growing use cases across conventional assets and product expansion as a sign of broader convergence.
• Hougan sees Robinhood-related infrastructure as another bridge that could help “lift” a wide range of crypto assets.
• Bitwise’s framework for “apparent demand” indicates BTC demand may be “re-accelerating,” even as spot demand remains a recurring concern.

Why Bitwise thinks the next cycle starts in TradFi

Hougan framed his positioning thesis around the idea that the market’s next sustained expansion will come from crypto benefits becoming easier to access for traditional investors. In a blog post published Wednesday, he asked how to begin positioning for what he expects to be a new bull market and answered with a pair of entities he believes represent convergence from opposite directions.

“By looking at two entities that are leading this convergence from opposite sides: Hyperliquid and Robinhood.”

The underlying premise is that crypto’s structure—particularly constant markets and instant settlement—creates advantages that traditional finance has historically lacked. For Hougan, the key question is not whether Bitcoin will bottom, but whether new demand channels will be able to scale once mainstream firms and familiar interfaces adopt crypto trading patterns.

On Hyperliquid, Hougan emphasized that the platform’s activity is not confined to crypto pairs. According to his description, nearly half of Hyperliquid’s volume is tied to “conventional assets like oil, silver, and the S&P 500,” and the venue is reportedly expanding into spot commodities, prediction markets, and options.

That mix matters because it signals an appetite for trading experiences that look and feel familiar while still operating with crypto-native mechanics. If those flows continue to grow, Hougan argues that the effect should reach beyond isolated tokens and instead support the broader sector.

The “rising tide” thesis for majors and crypto equities

Hougan also ties his outlook to the competitive pressure from traditional financial players entering the crypto ecosystem through infrastructure and distribution. He referenced Robinhood’s “Chain layer-2 network” as an example of how legacy finance might become more directly connected to crypto market dynamics.

“I suspect the coming bull market will be big enough to lift most of the sector.”

From there, he lays out a portfolio-style approach: he says he remains bullish on major assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, while also expressing optimism about crypto equities. The common thread in his argument is that broadening participation tends to support liquidity across the market, not just the most narrative-driven names.

Hougan’s positioning aligns with his broader tone entering 2026. Earlier this year, he argued that the end of the “crypto winter” could arrive sooner than expected, and he maintained that view while markets continued to work through weakness.

BTC: “apparent demand” shows a possible reversal

While Hougan’s thesis focuses on what could power the next cycle, the day-to-day question for traders is whether Bitcoin’s demand backdrop is stabilizing. Cointelegraph previously reported that many market participants were looking for bottoming signals, but also suggested the bear phase could still have months left depending on how spot demand evolves.

In that context, the spotlight has remained on the question of whether spot buying is returning—particularly on shorter time frames where demand can appear fragile even when longer-term conditions are improving.

However, Bitwise is pointing to a different metric that may be shifting. According to an X post on Thursday by Andre Dragosch, Bitwise’s European head of research, BTC “apparent demand” is “re-accelerating.” Dragosch’s post frames the change as a meaningful departure from the prior slowdown.

What “apparent demand” means: it measures the difference between newly mined BTC and the supply that has remained inactive for at least one year. In effect, it provides a way to infer whether recently produced coins are being absorbed rather than circulating from dormant holdings.

That distinction matters for investors because a sustained improvement in apparent demand can indicate that the market is finding new buyers—even if spot volumes are not yet fully convincing across every trading window. Still, the metric is not identical to spot demand, and it won’t resolve instantly the question of where a bottom will form on price alone.

What to watch next as TradFi integration and demand signals collide

Hougan’s argument implies that even if Bitcoin’s near-term chart shows gradual stabilization, the bigger inflection point will likely depend on how quickly mainstream access and crypto trading mechanics begin to reinforce each other. Hyperliquid’s ability to attract volume tied to conventional assets and its expansion into additional derivatives-style products could provide one path, while Robinhood-related ecosystem development is another.

At the same time, BTC investors appear to be watching for whether the “re-accelerating” apparent demand signal persists beyond a short burst. If apparent demand continues to improve while broader spot demand recovers, the market may be closer to a durable transition than “bottom” headlines alone would suggest.

Crypto-related “wrench attacks” continued through the first half of 2026, with 52 verified incidents worldwide and $124.1 million in recorded financial exposure, according to CertiK. 

The total includes stolen funds, ransom demands, frozen assets and other values tied to documented cases, rather than only money confirmed as lost.

The number of attacks rose 33.3% from 39 cases in H1 2025. Recorded financial exposure rose much faster from about $10.5 million a year earlier. CertiK calculated a 1,079% increase, while average exposure per incident climbed from roughly $270,000 to $2.39 million.

Meanwhile, the first quarter drove most of the increase in attack frequency. CertiK recorded 35 incidents in Q1 2026, compared with 22 during the same period last year. Activity then slowed to 17 verified attacks in the second quarter, matching the Q2 2025 total.

CertiK cautioned that its financial figures are “indicative, not exhaustive.” Some victims do not report attacks, while public records may not show whether ransoms were paid, recovered or frozen. The company therefore treats the $124.1 million figure as recorded exposure rather than confirmed criminal proceeds.

The report also warned against simply doubling the first-half total to predict the full year. A repeat of the H1 pace would put 2026 near 100 verified incidents, but CertiK said the calculation is not a forecast because Q1 and Q2 showed different trends.

France accounts for most verified wrench attacks

Europe recorded 39 of the 52 verified attacks, or 75% of the global total. France alone accounted for 33 incidents in CertiK’s dataset, equal to 63.5% of all verified cases worldwide and 84.6% of Europe’s total. The U.S. recorded four incidents, while Sweden and the UK recorded two each.

The French total may be higher than CertiK’s verified public dataset. The report cited France’s National Directorate of Judicial Police as recording 41 incidents between January and March. CertiK said some cases can be classified as robbery, kidnapping, assault or extortion without a clear crypto label.

As crypto.news previously reported, France has stepped up its response. Prosecutors charged 88 suspects across 12 investigations by late April, while authorities also prepared prevention measures for crypto holders after a rise in kidnappings and home invasions.

Home invasions become the leading attack method

Home invasions showed the sharpest change. CertiK recorded 20 such incidents in H1 2026, up from one in the same period last year. The category accounted for about 41% of first-half attacks. Kidnappings increased from 12 to 16, while torture remained at four cases and murder at one.

Wrench attacks rely on physical force, threats or intimidation to make victims transfer crypto, reveal private keys or unlock wallets. This can bypass digital safeguards because an attacker targets the person controlling the assets rather than the wallet software itself.

Recent cases have also involved relatives and people close to crypto holders.The wife of The Sandbox co-founder Sébastien Borget was targeted in an attempted kidnapping in France. Other reports have described attackers using fake delivery workers to gain access to victims.

Security spending rises as threats move offline

The increase in physical attacks has pushed some crypto companies to spend more on executive protection. As previously reported by crypto.news, Coinbase spent about $8.7 million on security and protection costs linked to CEO Brian Armstrong in 2025, while Gemini agreed to pay $400,000 per month for executive protection services.

MARA also disclosed $4.3 million in security spending connected to CEO Fred Thiel, including $430,000 for vehicle armoring. These costs have grown as public executives, investors and founders face risks tied to visible crypto wealth and personal information available online.

CertiK advised holders to limit public information connecting their identity, location and routines to crypto ownership. It also recommended separating signing devices from recovery materials, using multi-party controls for large holdings and avoiding setups in which one person can instantly move all assets under pressure.

The firm also urged families to prepare emergency plans and advised high-risk users to keep sensitive accounts off devices used while traveling. For companies, it recommended tighter controls around employee and customer data, along with security reviews for executives, travel and public events.

The H1 report shows that attack frequency slowed after the first quarter, but the financial value connected to known cases remained far above last year’s level. France accounted for most verified cases, while home invasions became the most common attack method in CertiK’s dataset.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner Hester Peirce has warned that some crypto vaults and onchain lending strategies may fall under federal securities laws, depending on how operators structure and manage them.

In a July 22 statement, Peirce said moving financial activity onchain does not remove legal duties when that activity already sits within the SEC’s regulatory scope. She urged developers and operators to examine how their products work instead of assuming blockchain technology places them outside existing law.

Peirce said the SEC has spent the past year and a half clarifying which crypto assets and activities fall under federal securities laws. She also stressed that a more tailored approach to crypto does not mean every product sits outside the agency’s reach.

“You will have a painful fall,” she said.

The warning targeted market participants who try to interpret the law in ways that exclude activities already covered by the securities framework. Peirce said companies whose products fall inside that framework should work with the SEC to find a compliant path.

Kazakhstan has approved a new regulatory framework for large-scale “strategic” crypto mining that ties access to electricity quotas at regulated tariffs to participation in a state-backed digital asset reserve. The rules were approved on July 18, according to Zakon.kz, which cited Government Resolution No. 638 published in Kazakhstan’s PRG.kz legal database.

Under the framework, designated miners receive electricity access in exchange for transferring part of the cryptocurrency they mine to Astana Hub, a government-supported technology cluster. The Kremlin of mining policy is likely to be felt first by industrial operators looking to scale, as the new model sets relatively high technical and infrastructure thresholds before a company can qualify.

Key takeaways

• Kazakhstan’s strategic digital mining rules link regulated electricity tariff access to transfers of mined crypto assets to Astana Hub.
• Applicants must meet infrastructure requirements, including a mining data center capacity of at least 150 MW and hardware with minimum 150 TH/s per unit.
• The framework introduces additional operational and compliance conditions, including staffing, repair capabilities, internet service contracts, and being current on tax and other payments.
• The government resolution is set to enter into force on Aug. 1, 2026.

Why Kazakhstan’s “strategic” model matters

Kazakhstan is widely recognized as one of the world’s largest Bitcoin mining jurisdictions. In the April 2025 Cambridge Digital Mining Industry Report, it ranked fifth globally by Bitcoin mining activity, according to the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance. The approval of this new framework suggests the country wants to keep mining activity moving while steering it into a more formal state-linked structure.

Investors and operators should pay attention to how the policy could change the economics of mining. Instead of purely commercial arrangements for power and site operations, “strategic” miners will gain access to electricity quotas at regulated tariffs, but in return they must participate in a reserve mechanism tied to Astana Hub. That trade-off effectively adds a new policy-driven cost component—sharing mined assets—while potentially improving power affordability for eligible participants.

Eligibility requirements: a high bar for applicants

The rules define strategic digital mining as an arrangement that grants miners electricity quotas at regulated tariffs, contingent on transferring a portion of mined assets to Astana Hub. Zakon.kz reports that applicants must satisfy strict prerequisites before they can be recognized as strategic miners.

Among the cited requirements, mining companies must:

• Own a digital mining data center with at least 150 megawatts (MW) of capacity.
• Use mining hardware where each unit has a minimum computing power of 150 terahashes per second (TH/s).
• Have qualified technical staff and repair facilities located at their data centers.
• Maintain multiple internet service contracts.
• Be current on required tax and other payments.

In addition, the rules place the operational burden on firms to demonstrate readiness beyond just having equipment and power. For large-scale operators, this may reinforce an industry shift toward purpose-built facilities and contracted power and connectivity. For smaller miners, it could mean the “strategic” pathway is out of reach even if electricity costs are attractive.

Electricity access traded for a mined-asset reserve

Once approved, strategic miners must enter into agreements connected to Astana Hub’s autonomous cluster fund and purchase electricity from eligible power-generating companies under the new framework. The policy is designed to function like a barter between subsidized or regulated electricity access and transfers into a reserve mechanism.

However, the precise transfer percentage is not stated in the publicly described summary of the rules. Local media cited a 10% transfer rate, but the article notes that Cointelegraph could not independently verify that figure. For market participants, that uncertainty is significant: even small changes in the transfer share can materially affect cash flow and treasury planning for mining firms.

The reserve mechanism also reflects a broader policy direction: Kazakhstan appears to be building state-linked digital asset infrastructure rather than leaving mining incentives entirely to market forces. This approach could influence how miners structure operations, including whether they treat mined reserves as liquid holdings or as assets bound by policy transfer obligations.

A wider state-backed crypto push

The strategic mining framework arrives as Kazakhstan expands the role of state-backed structures in the crypto sector. In September 2025, Kazakhstan launched the Alem Crypto Fund, described in earlier coverage as a state-backed vehicle focused on long-term digital asset reserves, with its first investment involving BNB through a partnership with Binance Kazakhstan (as reported by Cointelegraph).

Kazakhstan has also been moving toward regulated crypto-related financial services. In July 2026, Alatau City Bank and Binance Kazakhstan launched Crypto Pay, a service allowing users to make crypto payments via QR codes and point-of-sale terminals integrated into the bank’s acquiring network, according to the bank’s announcement on its website.

These steps—mining policy, a reserve fund, and payment infrastructure—point to a coordinated national approach: rather than treating crypto as a purely private activity, Kazakhstan is assembling mechanisms that funnel participation into government-supported platforms and compliance-oriented channels.

As the strategic mining rules transition from approval to implementation, the most important details to watch are how the reserve transfer works in practice—especially the actual share miners must contribute—and how the eligibility requirements will be enforced during the run-up to the Aug. 1, 2026 effective date. For miners, the next question is whether the promise of regulated electricity quotas will outweigh the added reserve transfer obligation for companies that qualify.