A decisive break below the 20-day moving average has weakened the near-term technical structure of the Nifty, shifting the risk-reward equation to the downside, says Rupak De of LKP Securities. With volatility spiking and key Fibonacci support levels breached, he sees potential for further corrective moves toward 25,000 unless the index reclaims resistance levels swiftly.

Edited excerpts from a chat:

Nifty ended the week lower as IT stocks dragged the index. How do you see the risk-reward changing for the week ahead?

The Nifty opened gap-down amid heavy morning selling in IT stocks, triggered by negative cues from the US markets—particularly the NASDAQ, which was hammered overnight. By the end of the session, the IT index staged a smart recovery from the day’s low; however, the headline index still closed deep in the red. Meanwhile, India VIX, the real villain of the day, moved back above its 200DMA, indicating rising fear and volatility during the session.

The chart setup appears somewhat weak, with the index slipping below its 20DMA for the first time in the last 3–4 sessions. Technically, the index has also fallen below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior rally from 24,571 to 26,341.

As the index has closed below the support of 25,500, we expect the Nifty to remain weak with a potential to fall towards 25,000 in the short term. On the higher end, resistance is placed at 25,800.

Nifty IT index ended the week 8% lower as investors remain worried about the impact of AI. Do you see some shorting opportunities here?

The IT index has been witnessing a highly volatile and uneven uptrend. Initially, it delivered a false breakout and then corrected sharply, an abrupt move that caught many off guard. Subsequently, it broke below the support of its rising trendline at 35,400—a level I had highlighted as the “make-or-break” zone in last week’s ET Market View, triggering a steep decline toward 31,422.

In addition, a hidden bearish divergence is visible on the weekly RSI, indicating weakening underlying momentum and reinforcing the cautious outlook for the sector.

Defence stocks are doing well. How would you trade, and do you see more upside?

The defence sector, though limited in participation, maintained relative strength during the week. On the weekly chart, a noticeable spike was observed in the current session, and the index continued to hold above its 20-week SMA, reflecting sustained positive momentum.I expect this constructive sentiment to persist in the short term. Additionally, several stocks within the space are hovering just above their immediate support levels, which could act as a base for further upside if broader market conditions remain supportive.

SBI was among the top weekly gainers. Do you think more upside is left?

SBI has rallied sharply in recent sessions following a consolidation breakout on the weekly chart. The trend remains strong and is likely to sustain in the short term as well.

However, it would be prudent to accumulate the stock in a staggered manner. Dips should be utilised as buying opportunities from a medium-term investment perspective.

Give me your top trading ideas for the week

Sell Indian Hotels | Entry: 700 | Stop Loss: 717 | Target: 670

The stock has formed a lower high on the daily chart, indicating subdued buying interest at higher levels. It has also slipped below its 20DMA, reflecting short-term weakness in trend structure. Additionally, the RSI has developed a hidden bearish divergence, signalling fading momentum.

Given the current technical setup, the stock may remain under pressure in the near term, with potential downside toward 670. On the upside, 717 acts as immediate resistance; a sustained move above this level could negate the bearish bias.

Sell Persistent | Entry: 5,480 | Stop Loss: 5,600 | Target: 5,280

Although the stock witnessed a smart intraday recovery after a gap-down opening, it had earlier broken below its 200DMA, suggesting a negative short-term trend. On the hourly chart, the stock appears to be on the verge of a breakdown. The RSI has also broken below a rising trendline, reinforcing the weakening momentum.

Based on the prevailing technical structure, a bearish view can be drawn, with the price potentially drifting toward 5,280. Immediate resistance is placed at 5,600.

Buy Kirlosker Eng | Entry: 1,379 | Stop Loss: 1,325 | Target: 1,500

The stock has moved above its previous swing high, supported by healthy volumes, indicating strengthening buying interest. The RSI is in a bullish crossover and trending higher, reflecting improving momentum. Additionally, the price has sustained above its 20DMA, supporting the positive bias.

In the short term, the stock may advance toward 1,500. Immediate support is placed at 1,325; a decisive breach below this level could weaken the prevailing uptrend.

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

By Jennifer Nash

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), providing forecasts for energy markets. This article presents the annual production outlooks for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), comparing the February 2026 projections

Even a cooler-than-exected inflation reading couldn’t keep stocks from posting their worst week since November. 

Stocks initially rose after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer-price growth slowed to an annual pace of 2.4% in January. Easing price pressures, coupled with this week’s robust labor data, reassured some investors that there is a path for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates without an economic downturn. 

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Gold loan financier Manappuram Finance on Saturday said it has received final approval from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the proposed acquisition up to 41.66 per cent of the company’s paid-up equity capital / convertible instruments by affiliates of Bain Capital– BC Asia Investments XXV Ltd and BC Asia Investments XIV Ltd.

The RBI approval, communicated on February 13, 2026, is in connection with the definitive agreements executed on March 20, 2025, under which Bain Capital committed to invest approximately Rs 4,385 crore to acquire an 18 per cent stake on a fully diluted basis through preferential allotment of equity shares and warrants at a price of Rs 236 per share, Manappuram Finance said in a statement.

The transaction also triggers a mandatory open offer for the purchase of an additional 26 per cent stake from public shareholders at Rs 236 per share, in accordance with the SEBI (Substantial Acquisition of Shares and Takeovers) Regulations, 2011, it said.

With this approval, Bain Capital will be classified as a promoter of the Company and will jointly control Manappuram Finance along with the existing promoters, it said.

The board will be reconstituted and will include nominee directors of Bain Capital, in line with the transaction agreements, it said.

Based on the open offer subscription, Bain Capital’s stake post-investment will vary between 18 per cent and 41.7 per cent on a fully diluted basis (including shares to be issued pursuant to exercise of warrants), it said.
The existing promoters will hold 28.9 per cent post-investment on a fully diluted basis, it said.

“With Bain Capital coming on board as a joint controlling shareholder, we are well-positioned to accelerate growth in our core segments, invest further in technology and risk management capabilities, and build a professionally managed, future-ready financial services company. It will also help us enhance and expand our branch network pan India,” Manappuram Finance MD and CEO V P Nandakumar said.