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Ahead of Market: 10 key factors to steer markets on Monday

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Ahead of Market: 10 key factors to steer markets on Monday
Indian benchmark indices closed sharply lower on Friday, dragged down by broad-based selling across sectors. Consumer, IT, and energy stocks were among the biggest laggards.

The Nifty settled at 25,471.10, down 336 points or 1.30%, while the BSE Sensex tumbled 1,048.16 points, or 1.25%, to close at 82,626.76.

The volatility gauge, India VIX, ended at 11.73, down 1.53% from the previous close.

Analysts’ Take

Nilesh Jain, Vice President – Head of Technical & Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse, said the Nifty opened with a gap-down and slipped below its key 21-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, placed at 25,480, 25,770, and 25,690, respectively.
The index is attempting to fill last week’s downside gap, and the crucial support at the 200-DMA near 25,300 is likely to be tested in the near term, Jain added.

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“India VIX had surged sharply earlier to around 13, and any further rise in volatility could be a cause for concern. Overall, the market structure appears sideways to weak, and pullback rallies are likely to face selling pressure as long as the Nifty remains below 25,800,” he said.

European Markets

Most major European indices were trading broadly positive around 2:07 p.m. GMT (7:52 p.m. IST). Germany’s DAX was higher, while France’s CAC 40, the Stoxx 600, and the UK’s FTSE 100 were also trading in the green. Spain’s IBEX, however, was marginally lower.

Tech View

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said India VIX has moved back above its 200-DMA, indicating rising caution among market participants.

From a technical perspective, the setup has turned relatively cautious, with the index slipping below its 20-DMA for the first time in recent sessions. He added that the Nifty has breached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upward move from 24,571 to 26,341.

“With the index closing below the key support level of 25,500, the near-term bias appears weak, with potential for a decline toward 25,000 in the short term. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around 25,800,” he said.

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Most Active Stocks (Value)

Bajaj Finance (Rs 591 crore), Infosys (Rs 377 crore), HDFC Bank (Rs 375 crore), Larsen & Toubro (Rs 222 crore), TCS (Rs 211 crore), HCL Technologies (Rs 194 crore), and Reliance Industries (Rs 144 crore) were among the most active stocks on the BSE in value terms.

Most Active Stocks (Volume)

SpiceJet (4.86 crore shares), Vodafone Idea (3.59 crore shares), YES Bank (78.48 lakh shares), Suzlon Energy (66.30 lakh shares), Bajaj Finance (58.42 lakh shares), Eternal (44.23 lakh shares), and Ola Electric (43.51 lakh shares) were among the most actively traded stocks in volume terms on the BSE

Stocks Showing Buying Interest

Bajaj Finance, Lenskart Solutions, Engineers India (EIL), GE Power India, Universus Photo Imagings, Repro India, Laxmi Cotspin, and Anmol India witnessed notable buying interest.

52-Week High/Low

A total of 83 stocks hit their 52-week highs, while 193 slipped to 52-week lows. Stocks touching fresh highs included Apex, Avanti Feeds, Bharat Forge, Eicher Motors, Jamna Auto Industries, Lenskart, and Sharda Cropchem.

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Stocks Seeing Selling Pressure

Among large-cap names, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, and ICICI Bank saw significant selling pressure. Other laggards included SpiceJet, Hindustan Unilever, Hindalco Industries, Eternal, Adani Enterprises, Crown Lifters, Muthoot Finance, and ONGC.

Market Breadth

Heavyweights such as HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, and Hindustan Unilever weighed on the indices. Market breadth remained negative. Of the 4,364 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,253 advanced, 2,960 declined, and 151 remained unchanged.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

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I am a stock analyst with over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management. My focus is on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization to uncover high-growth investment opportunities. As a former Vice President at Barclays, I led teams in model validation, stress testing, and regulatory finance, developing a deep expertise in both fundamental and technical analysis. Alongside my research partner (also my wife), I co-author investment research, combining our complementary strengths to deliver high-quality, data-driven insights. Our approach blends rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation. We have a particular interest in macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis, aiming to provide actionable ideas for investors seeking to outperform the market.

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