Crypto World
Most Undervalued Since March 2023 at $20K, BTC Price Metric
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is approaching what on-chain researchers describe as an undervalued zone for the first time in more than three years, according to CryptoQuant’s latest data. The market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio, a classic gauge of whether Bitcoin is fairly valued relative to the price at which the supply last moved, has moved toward a breakeven point after a months-long downtrend that followed an October 2025 all-time high. Last week’s price action saw BTC dip below $60,000, a level that has framed the market’s sentiment and testing of support in recent cycles. With the MVRV metric hovering near 1.1, analysts say the asset is edging into territory that historically accompanies accumulation and potential reversal, though they caution that no single indicator guarantees a bottom.
Key takeaways
- The MVRV ratio is approaching its key breakeven threshold for the first time in more than three years, signaling a potential move toward undervaluation.
- CryptoQuant data show the MVRV reading around 1.1, the lowest since March 2023 when Bitcoin was trading near $20,000.
- Analysts emphasize that when MVRV dips below 1, Bitcoin tends to be undervalued; the current reading sits above that level but within a range historically tied to bottoms or near-bottom conditions.
- The two-year rolling Z-score of the MVRV ratio has recently reached historic lows, a pattern some traders compare to prior bear-market bottoms, suggesting accumulation dynamics may be forming.
- Past commentary notes that the Downdraft since the October 2025 peak has not featured a rapid ascent into an overvalued zone, a nuance that could differentiate this cycle’s bottom formation from earlier ones.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Market context: On-chain signals come as Bitcoin experiences a multi-quarter consolidation after a new all-time high, with traders watching MVRV and Z-score metrics alongside price levels around $60,000. The combination of shifting on-chain signals and macro risk sentiment will likely influence whether the current downtrend resumes or a broader accumulation phase takes hold.
Why it matters
On-chain metrics like MVRV provide a lens into the psychological and behavioral underpinnings of Bitcoin’s price action. When the market value to realized value ratio approaches breakeven, commentators interpret it as a potential signal that the supply-weighted cost basis is, on average, becoming cheaper relative to current market prices. CryptoQuant contributors have highlighted that Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio hovered around 1.13 after Bitcoin’s dip below the $60,000 level last week—the lowest print since March 2023, when BTC traded near $20,000. That backdrop matters because it frames a broader narrative: the asset may be transitioning from a drawdown phase into a period where long-term holders could be stepping in at historically favorable levels.
“Generally, when the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is regarded as undervalued. At present, the indicator stands at around 1.1, suggesting that price levels are nearing the undervaluation range.”
CryptoQuant’s analysis emphasizes that the current reading should be interpreted in the context of a four-month downtrend that followed Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak. The team notes that the market did not experience a sharp move into an obviously overvalued zone during the most recent bull cycle, a nuance that could influence how traders interpret the “bottom formation” narrative this time around. The research argues that such a structural difference could mean the eventual bottom may form gradually rather than through a sudden capitulation event—a scenario that has implications for long-term investors and risk teams evaluating exposure.
“The current Z-Score of $BTC is lower than during the bear market bottom in 2015, 2018, COVID crash 2020 and 2022,”
commented Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known trader and analyst, underscoring how the present configuration differs from prior cycles. In another update, CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain used a separate Z-score iteration to characterize BTC/USD as being in a “capitulation zone,” a reading that some interpret as an early stage of accumulation pressure forming behind the scenes. The analyst framed the takeaway as an invitation to consider the bottom could be forged in the current environment rather than simply waiting for a textbook capitulation event to materialize.
“The indicator suggests that we are approaching the historical accumulation phase,”
GugaOnChain wrote, adding that the statistical deviation captured by the Z-score points to opportunity rather than imminent disaster. While the language is nuanced, the consensus in these on-chain circles is that Bitcoin’s downside risk may be increasingly limited as long-term holders show willingness to accumulate near these levels.
What to watch next
- Track the MVRV ratio for a breakeven shift toward or below 1.0, which historically signals stronger undervaluation periods or a local bottom formation.
- Monitor the two-year rolling Z-score trajectory for a sustained move away from capitulation readings toward accumulation-style behavior.
- Observe Bitcoin price action around key support zones, particularly a continued hold above $60,000 and any subsequent retests that could validate the on-chain narrative.
- Look for corroborating on-chain signals, such as realized-cap data and transaction-flow metrics, that would reinforce a shift from distribution to accumulation.
Sources & verification
- CryptoQuant analysis on Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio and the “undervalued” zone hypothesis.
- CryptoQuant commentary on Z-score readings and capitulation-zone signals for BTC/USD.
- Cointelegraph coverage of Bitcoin’s price action, including the recent dip below $60,000 and prior bear-market analyses referenced in related on-chain pieces.
- Historical context from on-chain reporting on prior cycle bottoms (2015, 2018, 2020, 2022) and the 2023 regime when MVRV prints below 1.
Bitcoin’s on-chain signals point toward undervaluation and potential bottom formation
Bitcoin’s current on-chain narrative centers on a delicate balance between valuation signals and price action. The MVRV ratio, long used to gauge whether market prices are aligned with realized on-chain cost bases, has begun to test a breakeven threshold after a prolonged downtrend. The latest reads show MVRV around 1.1, a level that CryptoQuant contributors describe as edging into an undervaluation zone. This is especially notable given that the most recent weekly close saw BTC slip under the $60,000 mark, a psychological line that has acted as both a magnet and a ceiling in various market regimes. The juxtaposition of a price discipline around key levels with an MVRV metric that says, metaphorically, “value is being accumulated near the current prices,” fuels a nuanced debate on whether a lasting bottom is imminent or whether further consolidation is necessary before a durable uptrend can resume. (CRYPTO: BTC)
CryptoQuant researchers emphasize that when MVRV falls below 1, the signal is a cleaner undervaluation flag. While the current approximation sits around 1.1 rather than 1.0, the interpretation remains constructive: price levels could reflect a rising probability of longer-term value attraction. The last time MVRV explicitly dipped below 1 was at the start of 2023, when BTC traded around $20,000. The comparison underscores that the present cycle has delivered a different flavor of bottoming dynamics, one that may unfold more gradually than in prior cycles. The source notes that the peak-to-trough structure of the current drawdown did not send the market into a textbook overvalued regime, which broadens the set of possible scenarios around the eventual bottom and subsequent recovery.
“Generally, when the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is regarded as undervalued. At present, the indicator stands at around 1.1, suggesting that price levels are nearing the undervaluation range.”
Beyond the MVRV signal, the market is attuned to the behavior of another metric set—the Z-scores that measure how far current values diverge from historical patterns. In two-year windows, the MVRV Z-score has dipped to an all-time low in several instances, a pattern analysts say mirrors the kinds of bottoming behavior seen in previous cycles. Michaël van de Poppe has highlighted that the current Z-score is lower than what was observed at major bear-market bottoms in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022, though no single metric guarantees an outcome. A different analyst, GugaOnChain, has used an alternate Z-score variant to characterize BTC/USD as being in a capitulation zone—an environment that often precedes accumulation-driven rebounds. The underlying message is that the bottom formation, if it is underway, could be a more drawn-out process than in some historical episodes, with on-chain dynamics providing nuance that price charts alone might miss.
These signals come at a time when the broader market is listening closely to on-chain data instead of relying solely on momentum-driven narratives. The combination of a price dip to sub-60k levels and a valuation framework that points toward undervaluation is generating renewed interest among long-term holders who recall similar cycles in which the real value of Bitcoin begins to assert itself well before a definitive price breakout appears on traditional charts. In this light, the discussion shifts from whether a bottom exists to how convincingly the current readings could translate into a sustainable reversal once the cycle completes its consolidation phase. The narrative remains contingent on a confluence of factors, including future price action, on-chain flows, and macro risks that continue to shape risk appetite across the crypto ecosystem.
The analysis, while nuanced, reinforces a cautious yet curious stance among observers: the market may be near a critical juncture where valuation signals begin to align with price stability and eventual demand. As ever, the caution remains that on-chain indicators offer probabilities, not certainties, and that a range of outcomes remains plausible depending on how external forces evolve in the weeks ahead.
Key Takeaways
- The OCC has granted Coinbase conditional authorization to establish a federally chartered trust entity
- This charter is limited to custody operations and market infrastructure, excluding retail deposits and traditional banking
- Final approval hinges on Coinbase completing multiple regulatory and administrative requirements
- The federal designation is anticipated to expand Coinbase’s reach among institutional investors
- Coinbase’s current New York state trust charter and BitLicense continue operating without interruption
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has issued conditional authorization for Coinbase (COIN) to launch Coinbase National Trust Company, a federally chartered trust institution.
This OCC charter is tailored exclusively for custody operations and market infrastructure services. The crypto exchange will not accept consumer deposits or function as a conventional fractional reserve banking institution under this authorization.
According to Greg Tusar, Co-CEO of Coinbase Institutional, the clearance provides “federal regulatory uniformity to the custody and market infrastructure business we have been building for years.”
Coinbase filed its national trust charter application with the OCC in October of last year. The platform currently operates under a limited-purpose trust charter issued by the New York Department of Financial Services, which authorizes digital asset custody services at the state level through Coinbase Prime, its institutional division.
The federal charter represents a significant upgrade. “We’re the custodian to over 80% of the world’s digital asset ETFs, but there are a number of other asset managers and hedge funds and others that would like to see the entity that they face have this kind of charter,” Tusar explained.
Essentially, the OCC certification unlocks opportunities that state-level authorization alone cannot provide.
Coinbase’s institutional division reported $245.7 billion in assets under custody as of June 2025 — representing approximately 7% of the entire cryptocurrency market, based on figures from its charter filing.
Outstanding Requirements for Final Approval
Conditional authorization differs from full approval. Before the charter becomes operational, Coinbase must convene its inaugural board meeting, implement corporate bylaws, set up payment infrastructure, and successfully complete a pre-launch examination by the OCC.
The company has committed to collaborating closely with OCC regulators to satisfy all outstanding conditions.
Meanwhile, Coinbase’s existing New York BitLicense and state-level trust charter remain active and unchanged. Coinbase, Inc. continues its operations under NYDFS supervision without disruption.
Other Applicants Pursuing Federal Charters
Coinbase isn’t the only crypto firm seeking this regulatory status. The OCC granted conditional approvals to multiple digital asset companies late last year, including BitGo, Circle Internet Group, Fidelity Digital Assets, Ripple, and Paxos.
Additionally, EDX Markets — backed by Morgan Stanley and Citadel Securities — along with World Liberty Financial, the Trump family’s most significant cryptocurrency initiative, have submitted national trust charter applications.
The federal charter also establishes infrastructure for emerging payment solutions and complementary financial services, targeting both institutional partners and retail users as primary beneficiaries.
While Congress has moved forward with market structure legislation, federal supervision of crypto custody providers has remained inconsistent. This OCC approval fills that regulatory void for institutional services without requiring completed legislative action.
The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has approved cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase’s application for a national bank trust charter after six months of consideration.
In a Thursday X post, Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal said the company received conditional approval for the OCC application, following December approvals for Ripple Labs, BitGo, Circle, Fidelity Digital Assets and Paxos.
Although the company said in October it had “no intention of becoming a bank” if approved, the move by US regulators marks one of the most significant forays into bridging crypto and traditional finance.
“Coinbase is not becoming a commercial bank,” said vice president of institutional product Greg Tusar in a Thursday blog post. “We will not be taking retail deposits. We will not be engaging in fractional reserve banking. This charter is about bringing federal regulatory uniformity to the custody and market infrastructure business we have been building for years.”
Tusar said that the company would continue to operate under the Department of Financial Services in New York, where it holds a BitLicense and a state charter as a limited-purpose trust company.
The OCC approval, coupled with Coinbase’s state-level efforts, came as the company is in the middle of a debate on issues stalling a digital asset market structure bill in Congress, including over stablecoin yield.
CEO Brian Armstrong said in January that the exchange could not support the legislation as written. Lawmakers on the Senate Banking Committee later postponed a markup, which is necessary before a potential floor vote on the bill.
Related: Coinbase exec says Senate CLARITY compromise is close, but no markup date set
At the time of publication, the OCC website showed no change to Coinbase’s application, which it marked as received by the banking regulator. Cointelegraph reached out to the exchange for comment but did not receive an immediate response.
Coinbase faces legal pushback over prediction markets
The crypto platform rolled out prediction market bets for US-based users in January as part of a partnership with Kalshi.
In lawsuits filed preemptively against state gaming authorities in Connecticut, Illinois and Michigan, Coinbase argued that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as a federal regulator, had the authority to oversee prediction markets. Many of the cases were ongoing as of Thursday.
Magazine: AI agents will kill the web as we know it: Animoca’s Yat Siu
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against Illinois and various state officials on Thursday over the state’s efforts to shutter prediction market providers.
Illinois sent cease-and-desist letters to some prediction market providers, arguing that the companies were offering sports gambling products that should be regulated under state law. The CFTC has argued that prediction markets are offering swaps products, which are regulated under the federal Commodity Exchange Act and therefore are under the “exclusive jurisdiction” of that regulator.
In the lawsuit, the CFTC continued this argument, saying Illinois’s efforts “intrudes on” the CFTC’s role, and that federal law preempts state regulations in this matter.
“Event contracts are derivative instruments that enable parties to trade on their predictions about whether a future event — which may relate to economics, or elections, or climate, or sports, or anything else of a potential financial, economic or commercial consequence — will occur,” the filing said.
The CFTC, especially under current Chairman Mike Selig, has argued that prediction markets are federally regulated, even as many of these companies expand to allow customers to place bets on sporting events. States, under both Republicans and Democrats, have pushed back. Nevada’s Gaming Control Board secured a temporary restraining order against Kalshi last month, with a hearing set for Friday.
The CFTC will participate in an appeals court hearing before the Ninth Circuit later this month, in a consolidated case involving the North American Derivatives Exchange, Kalshi and Robinhood.
Read more: Prediction markets backlash builds possible stormcloud for 2027
Anthony Scaramucci is openly backing Michael Saylor’s high‑yield Bitcoin strategy at the same time he jolts markets with a tongue‑in‑cheek X video announcing a 2028 presidential run, sharpening the line between his crypto advocacy and broader economic message.
Summary
- Scaramucci calls himself a “big fan” of Michael Saylor while dissecting Strategy Inc.’s roughly 11.5% perpetual yield tied to Bitcoin, warning that leverage and drawdowns remain real risks.
- In a previous crypto.news story, he linked that same wealth‑gap narrative to stalled CLARITY legislation in Washington and his long‑term Bitcoin thesis.
- His April 1 “Mooch 2028” video on X, framed as an April Fools’ gag, doubles as a campaign‑style address on inequality, debt and digital assets.
In a recent episode of the All Things Markets podcast, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci and Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz pulled apart Strategy Inc.’s (NASDAQ: MSTR) use of high‑yield perpetual securities, which Scaramucci said can deliver “four quarterly dividend payments equivalent to a yield of approximately 11.5%” for Bitcoin believers. He was explicit about his own position: “I’m a big fan of Saylor, and obviously SkyBridge owns a lot of Bitcoin. We don’t hold any of those assets, but I just wanted to disclose that to people.”
Saylor’s 11.5% Bitcoin‑backed yield under scrutiny
Novogratz stressed the structure’s dependence on leverage: “It’s leverage on the strategy,” he said, arguing Saylor currently enjoys a “big margin of safety” because of his large Bitcoin corpus but that a sharp drop in BTC would “inevitably” eat into that cushion. He warned that if Bitcoin crashed to around $30,000, perpetual investors “naturally” fear losing principal, because they “don’t have the right to get their money back” and Saylor can theoretically halt dividends, which would likely push the instrument to a steep discount.
That nuanced pitch to yield‑hungry Bitcoin holders landed just hours before Scaramucci’s latest viral video on X, where he stood in his office wearing a “Mooch 2028” cap and declared, “I’m running for President of the United States in 2028… Join me and help me heal America.” The clip, posted on April Fools’ Day, was quickly framed by outlets like Benzinga and Breitbart as a prank, but it reads like a test balloon: he references his ill‑fated 11‑day stint in Donald Trump’s first White House and insists, “I do believe I can help guide this country in the right direction.”
In a separate BeInCrypto interview covered by BloomingBit, Scaramucci said that passing the CLARITY Act, Washington’s flagship crypto market‑structure bill, is “not an easy situation,” adding that “in the current political environment, securing 60 votes in the Senate is almost impossible.” Earlier comments to Coinness underscored how partisan rancor over Trump’s launch of a memecoin, which he said earned between $600 million and $700 million, has further poisoned the well for bipartisan crypto rules.
Price‑wise, Scaramucci has hardly turned cautious: in February he told Benzinga that Bitcoin “doesn’t reward being early, but being patient,” even as BTC traded near $70,981, down about 7.2% on the day, and more recently has floated scenarios of $2 million to $3 million per coin over the next decade. For a would‑be “Mooch 2028” candidate, the message is clear enough — leverage can juice returns, but the real bet is that Bitcoin outlasts U.S. political dysfunction.
Key Takeaways
- Needham reduced HOOD price target from $100 down to $90 while maintaining its Buy recommendation
- Compass Point lowered its target from $127 down to $108, retaining its Buy stance
- March data revealed declining volumes across equity, options, and cryptocurrency trading
- HOOD shares have plummeted 52% in the last six months and 38% since the year began
- The company’s banking arm has exceeded $1.5 billion in total deposits
Robinhood Markets has encountered significant headwinds this week as several Wall Street analysts have lowered their price expectations following the release of disappointing March trading data.
On Wednesday, Needham’s John Todaro revised his price target downward from $100 to $90, though he maintained his bullish Buy rating. His decision stemmed from observations of decelerating growth throughout virtually all segments of the platform.
“We view HOOD as the most advanced financial services platform in its evolution toward a comprehensive financial super app, however the latest volume data and reduced net interest income suggest a more subdued operating environment,” Todaro explained.
The March performance report, published March 30, indicated equity notional trading volumes reached approximately $196 billion. The platform processed 187 million options contracts, while cryptocurrency trading notional volumes totaled $16 billion.
Todaro adjusted his equities and options projections for the first quarter of 2026 downward but maintained his cryptocurrency volume forecasts unchanged, noting that declines in that sector had already been incorporated into previous models. He also reduced revenue expectations for both 2026 and 2027, primarily due to anticipated lower trading activity and diminished net interest income.
His revised $90 target price reflects 27 times Needham’s discounted fiscal 2027 EV/EBITDA calculation.
This adjustment came one day after Wolfe Research’s Steven Chubak lowered his target from $115 to $81 — representing approximately a 30% reduction. His revision followed a decline in cryptocurrency transaction revenues, further pressured by broader digital asset market weakness.
Compass Point Joins Downgrade Chorus
Compass Point’s Ed Engel similarly decreased his price objective on Wednesday, moving from $127 to $108 while preserving his Buy rating. His forecasting models project Q1 revenue coming in 9% beneath consensus expectations, with shortfalls anticipated across all three primary business lines.
Engel observed that retail trading activity typically decelerates after five to six straight months of volatile market conditions, and that most retail investor favorites have generally declined since early October.
He made a comparison to April 2025, when analysts were reducing forecasts ahead of Liberation Day. Engel proposed that should markets recover, Robinhood could emerge as a significant beneficiary considering the 2026 IPO calendar.
HOOD shares have now declined 52% during the past six months and trade 46% beneath their 52-week peak of $153.86. The stock currently carries a P/E multiple of 34.14 and commands a market capitalization of $63.1 billion. InvestingPro’s analysis indicates the stock appears overvalued at present price levels.
Banking Segment Provides Encouraging Signs
Despite trading challenges, not all indicators are negative. Robinhood’s banking operation has surpassed $1.5 billion in deposits, serving nearly 100,000 funded customers — representing an approximately 50% deposit increase over a recent timeframe.
Bernstein SocGen Group reduced its price target from $160 to $130 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The investment firm continues to forecast 25% earnings per share expansion by 2026 and a 30% revenue compound annual growth rate spanning 2025 through 2027.
Jefferies launched coverage with a Buy recommendation and an $88 price target, highlighting opportunities from expanding global retail participation and a diversified product offering.
According to TipRanks, HOOD maintains a Strong Buy consensus recommendation based on 15 Buy ratings and 2 Hold ratings, with an average price target of $117.33 — suggesting approximately 67% potential upside from current trading levels. The most optimistic price target among analysts reaches $147.
The company’s complete first-quarter earnings report is scheduled for release in May.
Soluna Holdings, a publicly traded Bitcoin (BTC) mining and AI infrastructure company focused on renewable energy, announced on Thursday that it closed a $53 million deal to acquire a wind farm to power its upcoming Project Dorothy 3 AI data center campus.
The Briscoe Wind Farm, located in Briscoe County, Texas, has a potential capacity of up to 300 megawatts (MW), according to the company’s announcement.
The company forecasts that the facility will generate annualized revenue between $20 million and $24.4 million.
Shares of Soluna are up by about 7.6% following the news, and are trading at about $0.76 at the time of writing.
Soluna expanded into AI data center infrastructure in February 2024, amid an industry-wide pivot toward AI and high-performance computing infrastructure to shore up declining revenues from the crypto mining business.
Related: AI data center gold rush sparks debate over impact on Bitcoin mining
Miners adopt renewable energy solutions amid profit squeeze
The Bitcoin mining industry faces several economic headwinds, including declining block rewards, rising energy costs and compressing profit margins, with many companies operating near or below breakeven levels.
Up to 20% of mining companies aren’t profitable, according to a March 2026 report from asset manager CoinShares.
The average cost to mine a single Bitcoin rose to nearly $80,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025, CoinShares said. Bitcoin is currently trading well below that level.
“Q4 2025 marked the most challenging quarter for Bitcoin miners since the April 2024 halving,” the report said.
The October 2025 market crash, which caused Bitcoin to plummet from an all-time high around the $125,000 level to a low of about $60,000, and rising network hashrate have placed even more pressure on the industry, CoinShares said.
Bitcoin mining companies sold over 15,000 BTC between October and early March to cover operating expenses, and the pace of selling has continued in recent weeks.
Several Bitcoin mining companies, including The Pheonix Group and Sangha Renewables, have adopted renewable energy solutions to power their operations and remain competitive amid a challenging business environment.
Canaan, a mining hardware manufacturer and mining company, partnered with Soluna in September to deploy a wind-powered BTC mining facility at the Briscoe, Texas site.
Related: AI may already use more power than Bitcoin — and it threatens Bitcoin mining
Polymarket traders now put a 65% chance on WTI crude hitting $120 at some point in 2026, as Middle East tensions and supply fears drive a rapid repricing of oil risk.
Summary
- The Polymarket market on WTI crude reaching $120 in 2026 has seen its implied probability jump to 65%, up 25 percentage points over 24 hour.
- The contract resolves “yes” if any one-minute candle high of the active WTI futures month in 2026 trades at or above $120; a prior market used CME’s year-end settlement price instead.
- ChainCatcher reports that Polymarket will keep monitoring flows in the oil markets and updating pricing as conditions change.
Prediction platform Polymarket is currently assigning a 65% chance that WTI crude oil futures will trade at $120 per barrel at some point in 2026, with the market’s probability having climbed 25 percentage points in the past 24 hours and 10 points in the last hour. That repricing comes against a backdrop of WTI futures trading around $106 per barrel after a more than 6% daily move, as escalating Middle East tensions and fears of supply disruption outweigh the impact of scheduled OPEC+ production increases.
The specific market — “What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?” — resolves on an intraday high rather than a closing level, using one-minute candles for the active month WTI futures contract. Under the rules, the market will resolve to “yes” if, at any point during the 2026 period, any one-minute candle for the active WTI month prints a high at or above $120; otherwise, it resolves “no,” with fallback to official daily highs from CME if oracle data is unavailable.
Polymarket’s earlier WTI contracts, including a “Will Crude Oil (CL) hit by end of March?” market, were tied to the official settlement price of the near-month futures on the last trading day of the period. In those structures, a “yes” outcome required the CME settlement price to be at or above the strike level on expiry, a stricter condition than a single intraday spike.
By contrast, the new $120 market pays out if WTI touches the threshold at any moment in the year, making it more sensitive to short-lived volatility and headline-driven spikes. That shift aligns the oil market with other Polymarket structures that key off one-minute candles, reflecting the platform’s move toward higher-frequency oracle data for commodities and macro assets.
The jump to a 65% implied probability that WTI will hit $120 mirrors a broader repricing of oil risk across prediction venues and derivatives. Analysis of crude oil markets shows that traders now see elevated odds of WTI breaking into triple digits and sustaining high volatility, with probabilities for $95 and $100 per barrel also rising alongside volume and open interest at higher strikes.
ChainCatcher reported that Polymarket plans to continue monitoring flows and adjusting odds as new information on supply, geopolitics, and demand comes in, underscoring how quickly real‑money prediction markets can react to macro shocks. For macro traders, the contract offers a clean way to express views on whether war risk and supply constraints will push WTI from today’s ~$106 area to $120 or beyond before 2026 is over.
Key Highlights
- SoFi unveiled Big Business Banking, an all-hours platform enabling enterprises to handle both traditional currency and stablecoins through a regulated banking institution.
- The offering provides continuous deposits, transfers, and settlements — a stark departure from conventional banks’ limited business hours.
- Central to the platform is SoFiUSD, a stablecoin with reserves maintained directly in SoFi’s federally chartered banking entity.
- Launch partners include major industry players: Bullish, BitGo, Galaxy Digital, Mastercard, Cumberland, and Wintermute.
- Year-to-date 2026, SOFI shares have declined approximately 40%, pressured by fintech sector headwinds and accusations from short-seller Muddy Waters Research.
SoFi Technologies has progressively expanded far beyond its original student loan business model — branching into credit products, consumer banking, investment services, and small business financing. Thursday’s announcement marks another strategic shift: corporate banking solutions designed for enterprises requiring continuous financial operations.
The newly introduced service, SoFi Big Business Banking, enables business customers to maintain traditional U.S. currency holdings, transform them into digital stablecoins, and execute transfers continuously — all through SoFi’s federally chartered banking institution.
Currently, enterprises involved in cryptocurrency operations typically navigate a fragmented ecosystem of service providers. One institution handles cash holdings, another manages stablecoins, while yet another provides custody solutions. Transferring capital between these entities often requires hours or even days. SoFi aims to unify these functions under a single infrastructure.
Chief Executive Anthony Noto articulated the rationale clearly in Thursday’s announcement: “To be competitive, businesses today must operate in a global, always-on environment 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, while legacy banks typically still operate 9 to 5, Monday to Friday.”
SoFiUSD Stablecoin Serves as Platform Foundation
The platform’s core component is SoFiUSD, a dollar-backed stablecoin that customers can mint and redeem directly within the banking environment. Distinguishing itself from numerous stablecoins issued beyond U.S. regulatory frameworks, SoFi’s offering connects directly to a supervised institutional balance sheet, maintaining backing reserves internally.
The infrastructure also leverages distributed ledger technology, including Solana, for transaction processing. Practically speaking, a financial services firm could deposit traditional currency, transform it into SoFiUSD, and allocate that capital to markets immediately — eliminating wire transfer settlement delays. The conversion reverses with equal efficiency.
Multiple prominent cryptocurrency enterprises have joined as initial partners. Bullish, BitGo, Galaxy Digital (GLXY), Mastercard (MA), Cumberland, and Wintermute are anticipated to utilize the infrastructure for transaction movement and settlement. These organizations specialize in trading operations, liquidity provision, and asset safekeeping — precisely the type of enterprises requiring rapid, continuous capital movement.
This introduction follows several cryptocurrency-focused initiatives from SoFi. The organization revealed blockchain-enabled remittance services in August 2025 and introduced SoFiUSD in December 2025. It also established a small business financing marketplace in 2024.
SOFI Shares Continue 2026 Decline
Despite Thursday’s announcement, market response proved subdued — and unfavorable. SOFI shares decreased approximately 2.4% during early market activity, having already weakened throughout pre-market hours.
Heading into Thursday, the equity had already depreciated roughly 40% year-to-date. Two primary factors have driven the decline: challenging market conditions affecting fintech companies generally, and a continuing controversy with short-seller Muddy Waters Research, which released allegations regarding accounting practices earlier in 2026.
SoFi dismissed those assertions as “factually inaccurate and misleading” and indicated it was evaluating potential legal recourse against Muddy Waters.
As of Thursday’s early trading activity, SOFI was trading near price levels reached following the Muddy Waters publication — with the Big Business Banking debut failing to arrest the downward momentum thus far.
Bitcoin (BTC) gained a $10,000 price warning as stocks took a fresh hit over oil-supply fears at Thursday’s Wall Street open.
Key points:
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$10,000 BTC prices may return as the market struggles to hold ground, says new analysis.
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Bitcoin and US stocks take a further beating as markets discount the odds of the Strait of Hormuz returning to “normal.”
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Oil spikes to $114 per barrel in a volatile Wall Street open.
BTC price “may be reverting” to $10,000
Data from TradingView tracked BTC price action as it dipped below $66,000 to reach week-to-date lows.
Bitcoin continued to field warnings from market participants over short-term and long-term price performance.
In his latest analysis, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, even saw $10,000 coming back into play for BTC/USD.
“Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting,” he wrote in a summary on X.
McGlone argued that $10,000 had particular importance as the point at which Bitcoin futures markets first began trading almost a decade ago.
Data from CoinGlass meanwhile put 24-hour crypto liquidations at over $400 million on Thursday.
Oil surges over supply woes as Bitcoin falls
US equities came under considerable pressure at the open, with the Nasdaq Composite Index down by more than 2% at the time of writing.
Related: US recession odds near 50%: Can Bitcoin copy 2020 comeback gains?
Gold found cause for a modest rebound after its own comedown earlier, with oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz in the spotlight. WTI crude spiked to $114 per barrel as the US session began.
Reacting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter said that US inflation could hit 3.6% if prices sustained for two months.
“This would put US inflation at its highest level since September 2023,” it wrote on X.
Prediction platform Kalshi showed declining odds of oil traffic reverting to “normal” levels this year.
The volatility came as markets returned following an address to the nation by US President Donald Trump. As Cointelegraph reported, markets were disappointed by the event as Trump avoided key deescalation promises.
Kobeissi founder Adam Kobeissi called the address the “most puzzling part of the Iran War yet.”
“It began with Iran’s President stating they have “no enmity” towards Americans and ended with President Trump escalating the Iran War, the exact opposite of what we have seen over the last 2 weeks from both sides,” he told X followers.
“It simply does not add up.”
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Crypto World
Mobix Labs (MOBX) Stock: 1-for-10 Reverse Stock Split Approved to Meet Nasdaq Requirements
Key Highlights
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Mobix Labs approves 1-for-10 reverse stock consolidation to satisfy Nasdaq standards
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Stock experiences 3.81% decline as reverse split announcement proceeds
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Share consolidation scheduled for implementation on April 6, 2026
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Total outstanding shares to be reduced approximately tenfold post-consolidation
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Company takes action to maintain exchange listing and market credibility
Shares of Mobix Labs (MOBX) traded down to $0.2690, representing a 3.81% decline during fluctuating morning market activity. The stock experienced downward pressure and partial rebound within the trading session. The technology firm announced its decision to execute a reverse stock consolidation designed to meet Nasdaq exchange listing standards.
Company Moves Forward with Share Consolidation Strategy
Mobix Labs, Inc. officially announced a 1-for-10 reverse stock consolidation following shareholder authorization obtained in March 2026. The semiconductor company will execute this structural change following the closing bell on April 6, 2026. This strategic decision serves to elevate the trading price per share and satisfy Nasdaq’s minimum bid price criteria.
The consolidation will merge each group of ten existing shares into a single share, affecting both Class A and Class B common stock equally. Outstanding share quantities will experience substantial reduction following this structural modification. The corporation will maintain its current authorized share capital despite the consolidation.
Related equity instruments including employee stock options, outstanding warrants, and convertible debt securities will undergo corresponding proportional modifications. These adjustments ensure all derivative instruments remain aligned with the restructured share base. As a result, the company maintains internal consistency throughout its entire equity capital structure.
Implementation Mechanics and Shareholder Impact
Mobix Labs will consolidate Class A common shares from approximately 103 million down to roughly 10.3 million shares outstanding. Simultaneously, Class B common shares will contract from around two million to approximately 200,000 shares. This contraction directly results from applying the ten-to-one consolidation ratio.
The company will not issue any fractional shares following completion of the consolidation procedure. Shareholders whose holdings would result in fractional entitlements will instead receive cash compensation calculated using adjusted market closing prices. This methodology streamlines record-keeping while ensuring equitable treatment.
Investors maintaining positions through brokerage accounts or electronic book-entry systems face no required actions. Share balances will update automatically when the reverse consolidation takes effect. This automated process minimizes administrative burden and potential confusion for current equity holders.
Business Model and Market Positioning Context
Mobix Labs functions as a fabless semiconductor enterprise focused on defense and aerospace industry applications. The organization engineers radio frequency and interconnect technologies tailored for high-reliability mission environments. These specialized markets require exceptional performance consistency and adherence to rigorous technical specifications.
The reverse consolidation represents part of comprehensive initiatives to preserve Nasdaq compliance status and sustain institutional credibility. Maintaining continued exchange listing facilitates capital raising opportunities and strengthens corporate market presence. The maneuver therefore constitutes a structural recalibration rather than fundamental business strategy modification.
Notwithstanding recent trading price challenges, the organization remains committed to advanced semiconductor and connectivity solution development. Its product offerings address mission-critical infrastructure where dependability proves paramount. Accordingly, Mobix Labs maintains focus on specialized yet high-value technology market segments.
The consolidation disclosure establishes definitive timelines and procedural clarity for all interested parties. It further demonstrates management’s methodical approach to regulatory compliance without disrupting underlying operational activities. In summary, this development represents a technical capital structure refinement within an otherwise consistent strategic framework.
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