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Bitcoin’s $78K Realized Price Emerges as Make-or-Break Level for Market Recovery

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Bitcoin's $78K Realized Price Emerges as Make-or-Break Level for Market Recovery

TLDR:

  • Bitcoin currently trades below $78K, the realized price representing active addresses’ cost basis. 
  • Holding below this level places frequent traders underwater, shifting behavior from buying to selling. 
  • Sustained reclaim above $78K would return active participants to profit and reduce supply pressure. 
  • Failure to break resistance increases the probability of decline toward $50K long-term holder support zone. 

 

Bitcoin trades below a structural threshold that could determine the market’s near-term direction. The cryptocurrency currently sits beneath $78,000, which represents the realized price of highly active addresses.

This level serves as a critical cost basis for participants who transact most frequently. Market observers note that price behavior around this zone will likely shape recovery prospects or signal further downside pressure.

The $78K Threshold as Market Divider

Bitcoin’s realized price for highly active addresses stands near $78,000 at present. This metric reflects the aggregate cost basis of market participants who respond quickly to changing conditions.

Unlike static technical levels, this threshold represents actual positioning and sentiment among active traders. The realized price functions as a behavioral marker rather than a simple chart reference.

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Spot price currently trades below this realized level across major exchanges. This positioning places highly active addresses in unrealized losses on average.

Market structure shifts when participants hold underwater positions relative to their entry points. The change alters trading behavior from accumulation toward distribution as holders seek exits.

Trading below the $78K realized price historically increases overhead supply during rally attempts. Active addresses shift from absorbing sell pressure to contributing to it.

Source: Cryptoquant

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Each move higher faces resistance from participants looking to reduce exposure near breakeven. The dynamic transforms what might otherwise serve as support into a supply zone.

The transition from support to resistance carries weight for short-term price action. Recovery attempts meet sellers who entered at higher levels and now seek liquidity.

This pattern reinforces the $78K zone as a divider between market phases. Acceptance below this level suggests continued pressure until equilibrium shifts.

Path Forward and Downside Risk

Market recovery requires the price to reclaim and hold above the $78K realized price. A successful breakout would return highly active addresses to profitability on average.

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This shift reduces the incentive to distribute on strength and allows demand to stabilize. Sustained acceptance above this threshold validates the bullish case for continuation.

Reclaiming $78K would materially alter the market structure by removing a layer of supply. Profitable positions among active traders typically reduce selling pressure during subsequent advances.

The change allows price to build on higher ground without constant resistance. Recovery from above this level tends to show better follow-through than rallies from beneath it.

Repeated failures to break above $78K carry asymmetric downside risk for current holders. Each unsuccessful attempt reinforces the zone as distribution territory and weakens buyer conviction.

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The pattern increases the probability that the price will seek the next major realized anchor. Technical structure deteriorates when key levels repel multiple breakout attempts.

The next dominant realized price sits near $50,000, corresponding to the long-term holder cost basis. This lower threshold represents participants with stronger conviction and lower propensity to sell.

Price typically finds more durable support at long-term holder levels due to reduced panic selling. A move toward $50K would mark deeper mean reversion before sustainable bottoming patterns can emerge.

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Crypto Flows to Human Trafficking Services Jump 85% to Hundreds of Millions in 2025

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Crypto Flows to Human Trafficking Services Jump 85% to Hundreds of Millions in 2025


As Epstein-linked revelations emerged, new data show crypto payments to suspected trafficking services surged 85% globally in 2025.

As global attention remains fixed on the continued release and scrutiny of emails and documents tied to sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, attention has turned to how exploitation networks operate and move money.

Against this backdrop, a new report from Chainalysis disclosed that cryptocurrency flows to suspected human trafficking-related services surged sharply in 2025. Transaction volumes reached hundreds of millions of dollars, up 85% year-over-year. While the figures quantify financial activity, the report stressed that the true cost of these crimes is borne by victims, not balance sheets.

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Trafficking-Linked Crypto Activity

The increase in crypto-linked trafficking activity has occurred alongside the expansion of Southeast Asia–based scam compounds, online gambling operations, and Chinese-language money laundering and guarantee networks, many of which operate openly on Telegram and form a tightly connected illicit ecosystem with global reach.

Unlike cash-based systems, blockchain transparency helps investigators to trace these flows, thereby creating opportunities to identify and disrupt networks that would otherwise remain hidden. Blockchain analytics company Chainalysis tracked four primary categories of suspected cryptocurrency-facilitated trafficking: Telegram-based “international escort” services suspected of trafficking people; “labor placement” agents linked to kidnapping and forced labor in scam compounds; prostitution networks; and vendors of child sexual abuse material (CSAM).

Payment behavior differs across categories. “International escort” services and prostitution networks rely almost entirely on stablecoins as they prioritize price stability and ease of conversion, but CSAM vendors have historically favored Bitcoin. However, its dominance is declining as alternative Layer 1 networks and privacy tools emerge.

Escort services were found to be deeply integrated with Chinese-language money laundering networks that rapidly convert stablecoins into local currencies and reduce exposure to asset freezes by centralized issuers. Transaction-size analysis points to professionalized operations as nearly 49% of “international escort” service transfers surpass $10,000, which is consistent with organized enterprises operating at scale.

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Meanwhile, prostitution networks cluster in the $1,000-$10,000 range. These networks often use structured pricing and customer-service models, advertising standardized rates across major East Asian cities, which in turn produce identifiable on-chain patterns useful for detection.

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CSAM Crypto Economy

CSAM operations reveal a different structure. It was found that roughly half of transactions are under $100, and there is a shift toward subscription-based models that generate predictable revenue streams. In 2025, Chainalysis observed growing use of Monero and instant exchangers to launder CSAM proceeds, in addition to an emerging overlap between CSAM networks and sadistic online extremism communities, where abuse material is monetized through cryptocurrency payments.

One major CSAM site identified in July 2025 alone used more than 5,800 crypto addresses and generated over $530,000 since 2022. The report also stated that trafficking-linked services leverage US-based infrastructure for scale and legitimacy, while operators often remain overseas to limit personal exposure.

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XRP Rally Fails as Traders Take Early Profit: What’s Next?

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XRP Exchange Net Position Change

XRP price surged sharply, nearly posting an 18.7% intraday gain before surrendering half of that advance. The token now trades near $1.53 after closing with a 9% rise. 

Premature profit-taking by holders capped momentum and may influence XRP price direction in the coming sessions.

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XRP Selling Continues

Exchange net position change data indicates that selling among XRP holders remains consistent. Green bars on the metric show continued inflows to exchanges, which typically signal intent to sell. This steady movement suggests holders are offloading XRP during price rallies.

Outflows continue to dominate net flows despite the recent surge. Investors appear eager to secure profits after weeks of volatility. Such behavior often suppresses sustained breakouts and reinforces consolidation near resistance levels.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

XRP Exchange Net Position Change
XRP Exchange Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode

The MVRV Long/Short Difference highlights the dominance of XRP short-term holder profits. This metric measures the distribution of unrealized gains between long-term and short-term investors. Current low readings indicate that short-term holders hold a larger share of profits.

Short-term holders typically react quickly to price increases. Their tendency to sell at the first sign of gains likely contributed to the rally’s abrupt halt.

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As long as STH profits dominate, upward momentum may encounter repeated resistance.

XRP MVRV Long/Short Difference.
XRP MVRV Long/Short Difference. Source: Santiment

XRP Price May Face Some Resistance

XRP nearly recorded an 18.7% rise during the latest trading session before settling at a 9% gain. The long wick and rapid reduction in upside reflect early profit booking. Such behavior highlights fragile bullish conviction despite renewed interest.

The immediate objective is securing $1.51 as a support floor. XRP trades slightly above that level at $1.53.

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Resistance near $1.62 may cap gains, and renewed selling from short-term holders could pull the price back toward $1.36.

XRP Price Analysis
XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If distribution slows and demand stabilizes, XRP could regain upward traction.

A decisive move above $1.62 would strengthen the technical structure. Sustained buying could drive the price toward $1.76, invalidating the bearish thesis and reinforcing recovery momentum.

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Crypto Needs Privacy To Scale in Payments: Binance Co-Founder CZ

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Privacy, Changpeng Zhao

The lack of privacy for onchain transactions is one of the biggest hurdles to the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies for payments and a medium of exchange, according to Changpeng Zhao, co-founder of the Binance cryptocurrency exchange.

The executive commonly known as “CZ” said the lack of privacy prevents businesses and institutions from paying expenses in crypto. He gave this example: 

“Lack of Privacy may be the missing link for crypto payments adoption. Imagine a company pays employees in crypto onchain. With the current state of crypto, you can pretty much see how much everyone in the company is paid by clicking the ‘from’ address.”

Privacy, Changpeng Zhao
Source: CZ

In a previous conversation with investor and host of the All-In Podcast Chamath Palihapitiya, CZ also cited physical security concerns as a reason why onchain transparency is a risk to users. The comments follow a revival of privacy and the cypherpunk ethos in crypto.

Cypherpunk ideology is central to the birth of cryptocurrencies, peer-to-peer digital money that can be transferred without centralized intermediaries, and the encryption of online communication to shield messages from surveillance.

Privacy, Changpeng Zhao
CZ discusses the state of the crypto industry with Chamath Palihapitiya. Source: All-In Podcast

Related: ‘No privacy’ CBDCs will come, warns billionaire Ray Dalio

Encrypt everything: the rise of onchain privacy

Businesses and institutions will not embrace crypto, Web3 platforms, or blockchain if they cannot shield their transactions, Avidan Abitbol, the former Business Development Specialist for the Kaspa cryptocurrency project, told Cointelegraph.

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Transaction data contains critical information about corporate workflows, trade secrets, business relationships and can provide clues about a company’s overall financial health to competitors, he said.

These issues can lead to corporate theft, negatively impact corporations during business negotiations and increase the threat of an institution being targeted by scammers, Abitbol added.