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Bitcoin Below $70K: Analyst Claims Derivatives Market Has Replaced On-Chain Price Discovery

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TLDR:

  • Bitcoin’s hard cap of 21 million coins no longer controls price due to unlimited synthetic derivatives exposure 
  • Single Bitcoin can back multiple financial instruments simultaneously, creating fractional-reserve dynamics 
  • Wall Street institutions manufacture inventory through cash-settled futures and perpetual swaps to control markets 
  • Price discovery shifted from blockchain fundamentals to derivative positioning and liquidation flow mechanisms

 

Bitcoin has dropped below $70,000, prompting renewed debate about the cryptocurrency’s price discovery mechanism.

A crypto analyst argues that the digital asset no longer trades on simple supply and demand principles. The market structure has fundamentally changed due to derivatives layering, according to the analysis.

This shift mirrors what happened to traditional commodities when Wall Street introduced complex financial instruments. The original Bitcoin thesis may be under pressure from synthetic supply creation.

Derivatives Disrupt Bitcoin’s Scarcity Model

Bitcoin’s value proposition rested on two core principles: a hard cap of 21 million coins and resistance to rehypothecation. These foundations have been challenged by the introduction of multiple derivative products.

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Cash-settled futures, perpetual swaps, options, ETFs, and wrapped BTC now dominate trading volume. Prime broker lending and total return swaps add additional layers of synthetic exposure.

Crypto analyst Danny_Crypton posted on social media that price discovery has moved away from the blockchain. The on-chain supply remains fixed, but derivatives create unlimited synthetic exposure.

This dynamic has transformed Bitcoin into a market controlled by positioning and liquidation flows. Traditional supply and demand metrics no longer apply in the same way.

The shift parallels what occurred in gold, silver, oil, and equity markets. Once derivatives overtook spot trading in these assets, price behavior changed dramatically.

Physical scarcity became less relevant than paper positioning. The same pattern appears to be unfolding in cryptocurrency markets.

Wall Street institutions can now create multiple claims on a single Bitcoin. One coin might simultaneously back an ETF share, futures contract, perpetual swap, options position, broker loan, and structured note.

This fractional-reserve structure contradicts Bitcoin’s original design philosophy. The market has evolved into something different from what early adopters envisioned.

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Synthetic Float Ratio Explains Current Dynamics

The analyst introduced a metric called the Synthetic Float Ratio to explain recent price action. This measurement tracks how synthetic supply compares to actual on-chain supply.

When synthetic supply overwhelms real supply, traditional demand cannot push prices higher. Hedging requirements and liquidation cascades become the dominant forces.

Market makers can trade against Bitcoin using these derivative instruments. The strategy involves creating unlimited paper BTC and shorting into rallies.

Forced liquidations allow covering positions at lower prices. This cycle repeats, creating downward pressure regardless of underlying demand.

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The current drop below $70,000 reflects these structural dynamics rather than retail selling. Institutional players use derivatives to manufacture inventory and manage risk.

Their hedging activity creates price movements that appear disconnected from on-chain fundamentals. Traditional technical analysis may miss these underlying mechanics.

The analyst claims to have successfully predicted Bitcoin tops and bottoms for over a decade. His latest warning suggests that investors should understand these structural changes.

The cryptocurrency market has matured into a derivatives-dominated ecosystem. Whether this represents progress or deviation from Bitcoin’s original vision remains a contentious topic among market participants.

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Lack of On-Chain Privacy Holds Back Crypto Payments

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Crypto Breaking News

The lack of privacy for on-chain transactions is a core obstacle to mainstream crypto payments. Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao argues that privacy gaps deter businesses from using crypto to settle expenses, including payroll. He highlighted a scenario in which a company paying employees in crypto on-chain could have salary details exposed simply by inspecting sending addresses. The remark underscores a broader debate about whether public ledgers can sustain enterprise-level use without compromising sensitive information. In a separate exchange with Chamath Palihapitiya, host of the All-In Podcast, CZ connected these concerns to physical security, suggesting that transparency could heighten corporate risk even beyond financial data. The conversation comes as privacy-focused narratives—rooted in crypto’s cypherpunk origins—reassert themselves in a landscape where AI and data security add new layers to the discussion.

Key takeaways

  • The privacy question sits at the center of enterprise crypto adoption, with executives arguing that transparent on-chain activity deters payrolls and other payments.
  • A concrete example cited by CZ shows how salary information could be inferred from transfer histories, illustrating a tangible risk for corporate use cases.
  • The revival of cypherpunk values in crypto debates signals a shift toward prioritizing user control over data and resistance to pervasive surveillance on public ledgers.
  • Industry voices warn that as AI-powered tools become more capable, centralized servers and on-chain data could become more attractive targets for attackers, elevating the need for privacy-preserving technologies.
  • Policy and product developments around on-chain privacy—alongside pragmatic privacy narratives in media and research—are likely to shape how institutions view crypto as a payments and settlement layer.

Tickers mentioned:

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The privacy debate in crypto intersects with ongoing discussions about regulatory expectations, enterprise data handling, and the evolving threat landscape. As institutions weigh the benefits of programmable money against the risks of exposure, privacy-preserving technologies are entering broader conversations, alongside calls for pragmatic privacy implementations in the industry. The issue sits within a wider trend of renewed Cypherpunk-inspired discourse and a cautious approach to on-chain transparency in corporate contexts.

Why it matters

Privacy is not a niche concern but a practical constraint on the practical use of blockchain technology for everyday business. The payroll example alone illustrates how a lack of on-chain privacy can undermine a core financial function, potentially stalling broader corporate adoption. For enterprises, the risk is twofold: accidental data leakage that reveals payroll structures, vendor relationships, or strategic alliances, and the more subtle threat of data aggregation by adversaries who can piece together a company’s financial health from transaction patterns.

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Industry voices emphasize that corporate workflows—trade secrets, supplier networks, and internal budgets—rely on confidentiality even when the underlying infrastructure aims to be transparent. The Kaspa project’s privacy emphasis, echoed in conversations about enterprise adoption, highlights that a meaningful on-chain privacy layer can be a prerequisite for companies to feel safe transacting with crypto as a payment method. As AI systems grow more capable, the ability to infer sensitive information from on-chain activity could become easier, making robust privacy protections not just desirable but necessary for security of business data.

These threads align with a broader narrative about cypherpunk values resurfacing in crypto discourse: the principle that encryption and privacy are foundational to a decentralized, censorship-resistant financial system. The idea that privacy tools can coexist with auditability and compliance is increasingly a focal point for developers building privacy-enhanced protocols and for policymakers considering how to balance innovation with consumer protection. The conversation is not about anonymity at all costs but about ensuring that legitimate users—businesses and individuals—have the ability to shield sensitive data while preserving the integrity of financial ecosystems.

In parallel, industry commentators point to a future in which on-chain privacy becomes a standard part of enterprise-grade crypto infrastructure. This includes recognition that centralized data stores and surveillance risks will attract AI-assisted threats, making privacy technologies a strategic requirement for any organization looking to deploy blockchain-based financial solutions. The discussion is complemented by media and research highlighting pragmatic privacy innovations and the potential for privacy-centric architectures to coexist with regulated, auditable systems. These developments suggest a trajectory where privacy enhancements are not a tech niche but a core governance and risk-management consideration for the crypto economy.

As regulators scrutinize the balance between transparency and confidentiality, the industry is watching for concrete privacy implementations that can satisfy both corporate needs and compliance frameworks. The dialogue around privacy has also gained renewed attention from mainstream voices who emphasize that the absence of privacy could undermine trust and slow adoption, particularly in areas like cross-border payments, supply chain finance, and employee compensation. The culmination of these conversations points to a broader, more nuanced approach to privacy in crypto—one that enables legitimate use while guarding sensitive information from exposure and misuse.

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Further reading on related privacy themes includes discussions on the cypherpunk ethos and the evolving privacy landscape in crypto, including analyses of pragmatic privacy strategies and infrastructural approaches to privacy-preserving transactions. For a broader view of where privacy discussions are headed and how they intersect with industry and policy, see discussions on cypherpunk values in crypto, the role of privacy in CBDCs, and analyses of AI’s impact on on-chain data security.

What to watch next

  • Regulatory and industry acceptance of privacy-preserving on-chain transactions for enterprise use, including payroll and treasurer workflows.
  • Advancements in privacy-focused protocols and projects, with attention to practical implementations that can meet corporate governance standards.
  • Analysis of how AI-enabled data analytics could exploit on-chain transparency and what mitigations are being proposed.
  • Public discourse around cypherpunk values and their influence on product design, governance, and interoperability in crypto networks.
  • Emerging coverage and research on pragmatic privacy in crypto, highlighting specific case studies and measurable privacy gains.

Sources & verification

  • Changpeng Zhao’s comments on on-chain privacy and payroll visibility, via his X post: https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2023016538677371079
  • Cypherpunk values and their place in modern crypto debates: https://cointelegraph.com/news/cypherpunk-values-dying-but-not-dead-yet-show
  • Ray Dalio on privacy concerns around CBDCs: https://cointelegraph.com/news/zero-privacy-highly-controlled-cbdcs-coming-soon-warns-ray-dalio
  • Kaspa’s perspective on enterprise privacy and adoption drivers: https://cointelegraph.com/news/institutions-wont-embrace-web3-without-privacy-options-dop-exec
  • On-chain privacy in the context of AI and security threats: https://cointelegraph.com/news/onchain-privacy-necessity-age-ai-shielded-ceo

Privacy as the missing link for on-chain adoption

The on-chain privacy dilemma is not a theoretical debate but a practical bottleneck that could shape how quickly crypto-based payments move from pilot projects to everyday business operations. CZ’s remarks place a spotlight on concrete use cases—like payroll—where public visibility of transactions may undermine trust and willingness to adopt crypto at scale. The ongoing discussion around cypherpunk principles, combined with rising concerns about data security and AI-enabled threats, suggests that the next phase of crypto development will hinge on privacy-by-default features that preserve confidentiality without sacrificing auditable and compliant frameworks.

Ultimately, the market will look for a balanced path: privacy tools that protect sensitive information, clear governance around data handling, and privacy-preserving infrastructure that supports legitimate business needs. As projects and policymakers continue to test and refine these approaches, the industry’s ability to reconcile transparency with confidentiality could determine whether crypto payments become a mainstream, trusted option for corporate finance and everyday transactions alike.

Further reading on privacy’s role in the crypto era includes explorations of pragmatic privacy implementations and the revival of cypherpunk philosophies in today’s landscape, offering a framework for how technology and policy might converge to empower users while mitigating risk. The conversation remains dynamic, with developments that could redefine what “privacy” means in a decentralized economy and how enterprises securely participate in the programmable money revolution.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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CZ Finally Reveals Hidden Story Behind Binance Exit From FTX

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CZ Finally Reveals Hidden Story Behind Binance Exit From FTX

The relationship between Binance and FTX has long been one of the most debated rivalries in crypto. Now, Changpeng Zhao (CZ) is offering one of his most detailed public accounts yet.

CZ describes how cooperation turned into competition well before FTX’s 2022 collapse.

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CZ Lifts the Curtain on Binance’s Secretive Break With FTX

Speaking on the All-In Podcast, the former Binance CEO traced the relationship back to early 2019, when he first met Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), then running Alameda Research.

“Uh, I think I first met him in January 2019 in one of the Singapore conferences Binance organized. I think FTX did not exist at the time… Sam… was running Alameda,” CZ said, recalling that Alameda was then a major trading client on Binance and relations were initially friendly.

According to CZ, Alameda and the future FTX team soon approached Binance with proposals to collaborate on a derivatives platform. Several offers were made over time, including a joint venture structure that would have favored Binance.

Eventually, in late 2019, Binance agreed to invest.

“Yeah… we invested in them only 20% as equity at some point, and then we exited a year… later… we didn’t stay there for very long,” CZ said.

The deal included a token swap involving BNB and FTT, and Binance became a minority shareholder. CZ emphasized that:

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  • He remained a passive investor throughout the relationship
  • Chose not to request financial statements because both firms operated competing futures businesses.

“Because of the competitive nature in the businesses… I never really… ask them for financial statements… I’m a very passive investor. So when I invest, I don’t get involved in their business,” he said.

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Binance-FTX Tensions Beneath the Surface

Despite the early cooperation, CZ said relations deteriorated quickly. Reportedly, he began hearing reports that SBF was criticizing Binance in policy and regulatory circles in Washington.

“And then almost as soon as we did that deal, I kept hearing from my friends… SBF badmouthing us in the Washington circles,” CZ said.

He also described frustration over hiring practices, alleging that FTX recruited Binance staff by offering dramatically higher salaries. Allegedly, FTX would then use those hires to approach Binance’s VIP clients with competing offers.

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While CZ said he attempted to maintain a cooperative tone publicly and even agreed to appear jointly at industry events, he suggested the rivalry was already intensifying behind the scenes.

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Why Binance Exited

By early 2021, FTX was raising capital at valuations reportedly reaching $32 billion. CZ said Binance had contractual veto rights over future funding rounds but chose not to exercise them.

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“So… we said… why don’t we exit, actually?” CZ recalled, explaining that Binance preferred to compete freely rather than remain a shareholder in a fast-growing rival.

The exit was finalized in July 2021, roughly a year and a half before FTX collapsed in November 2022.

“This is like a full year and a half before they had issues… at the time we didn’t know,” he said, rejecting claims that Binance exited because of inside knowledge. “That’s categorically not true.”

FTX Collapse and Its Aftermath

FTX ultimately failed after revelations that customer funds had been misused to cover losses at Alameda Research, triggering a liquidity crisis and bankruptcy.

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Binance’s decision in November 2022 to liquidate its FTT holdings accelerated a bank run. However, subsequent investigations and court proceedings concluded that the core cause of the collapse was internal fraud and mismanagement.

CZ declined to comment extensively on ongoing legal disputes, including efforts by the FTX bankruptcy estate to recover funds from the 2021 exit. However, he reiterated that Binance had no visibility into FTX’s internal finances while it was a shareholder.

Taken together, CZ’s account portrays the Binance–FTX relationship not as a sudden breakdown but as a gradual unraveling. If his remarks are any guide, the relationship was marked by early cooperation, growing rivalry, and a strategic exit long before the crisis that reshaped the crypto industry.

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SBF did not immediately respond to BeInCrypto’s request for comment about CZ’s claims.

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Why Coinbase CEO Is Not Shaken By 7% Ethereum Price Drop

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Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Performance

Ethereum (ETH) has fallen 6.6% in the last 24 hours, trading around $1,947, as broader crypto markets continue to navigate volatility and macroeconomic headwinds.

Yet amidst the price turbulence, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is pointing to a surprising source of optimism: retail investor resilience.

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Retail “Diamond Hands” Hold Strong Despite Ethereum’s 7% Drop

Armstrong highlighted that, beyond weathering the market downturn, Coinbase’s retail users are actively buying the dip, resulting in net increases in BTC and ETH holdings.

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“Retail users on Coinbase have been very resilient during these market conditions, according to our data,” Armstrong wrote. “They’ve been buying the dip.

According to the Coinbase executive, they have seen a native unit increase for retail users across BTC and ETH on the exchange.

Citing diamond hands, Armstrong says most of Coinbase’s customers had native unit balances in February equal to or greater than their balances in December.

The Coinbase CEO framed this trend as a bullish counter-narrative to the current market gloom. While Bitcoin has pulled back toward the $68,000–$69,000 range and Ethereum has seen a 7% drop to levels below $2,000, retail investors are demonstrating conviction rather than panic.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Performance
Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Performance. Source: TradingView

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The “diamond hands” phenomenon, where users maintain or increase their crypto holdings despite drawdowns, suggests a maturing retail base that may help stabilize prices and underpin long-term adoption.

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Mixed Views Emerge as Retail Conviction Faces Market Risks

However, not everyone shares Armstrong’s optimism. Some critics argue that holding through sharp declines merely reflects significant drawdowns rather than true resilience.

Beyond holding behavior, community members are also voicing broader policy and market access concerns.

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“Retail users deserve access to yield on stablecoins and the reversal of the accredited investor law,” commented Wendy O.

This suggests that expanded DeFi participation and yield opportunities could further strengthen retail confidence.

The context is important, coming days after Coinbase’s Q4 2025 earnings revealed declining trading volumes amid an 11% drop in broader crypto market capitalization.

Yet the exchange continued to see inflows of native units from retail users, hinting at a floor of accumulation that may cushion the market during bearish stretches.

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Historical crypto cycles show that periods of sustained retail conviction often precede rebounds, as retail holders absorb volatility while institutional participants adopt more cautious postures.

Investor Decision Quality Between 2002 and 2025
Investor Decision Quality Between 2002 and 2025. Source: Doctor Profit on X

Therefore, while Armstrong’s message reassures the crypto community and subtly defends Coinbase’s performance amid a turbulent quarter, it also shows that the retail market is changing from short-term speculation to longer-term accumulation.

While prices may remain choppy in the near term, these patterns suggest that retail investors are increasingly acting as stabilizing forces in the market, potentially serving as a catalyst for recovery when broader sentiment shifts.

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Crypto Flows to Human Trafficking Services Jump 85% to Hundreds of Millions in 2025

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Crypto Flows to Human Trafficking Services Jump 85% to Hundreds of Millions in 2025


As Epstein-linked revelations emerged, new data show crypto payments to suspected trafficking services surged 85% globally in 2025.

As global attention remains fixed on the continued release and scrutiny of emails and documents tied to sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, attention has turned to how exploitation networks operate and move money.

Against this backdrop, a new report from Chainalysis disclosed that cryptocurrency flows to suspected human trafficking-related services surged sharply in 2025. Transaction volumes reached hundreds of millions of dollars, up 85% year-over-year. While the figures quantify financial activity, the report stressed that the true cost of these crimes is borne by victims, not balance sheets.

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Trafficking-Linked Crypto Activity

The increase in crypto-linked trafficking activity has occurred alongside the expansion of Southeast Asia–based scam compounds, online gambling operations, and Chinese-language money laundering and guarantee networks, many of which operate openly on Telegram and form a tightly connected illicit ecosystem with global reach.

Unlike cash-based systems, blockchain transparency helps investigators to trace these flows, thereby creating opportunities to identify and disrupt networks that would otherwise remain hidden. Blockchain analytics company Chainalysis tracked four primary categories of suspected cryptocurrency-facilitated trafficking: Telegram-based “international escort” services suspected of trafficking people; “labor placement” agents linked to kidnapping and forced labor in scam compounds; prostitution networks; and vendors of child sexual abuse material (CSAM).

Payment behavior differs across categories. “International escort” services and prostitution networks rely almost entirely on stablecoins as they prioritize price stability and ease of conversion, but CSAM vendors have historically favored Bitcoin. However, its dominance is declining as alternative Layer 1 networks and privacy tools emerge.

Escort services were found to be deeply integrated with Chinese-language money laundering networks that rapidly convert stablecoins into local currencies and reduce exposure to asset freezes by centralized issuers. Transaction-size analysis points to professionalized operations as nearly 49% of “international escort” service transfers surpass $10,000, which is consistent with organized enterprises operating at scale.

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Meanwhile, prostitution networks cluster in the $1,000-$10,000 range. These networks often use structured pricing and customer-service models, advertising standardized rates across major East Asian cities, which in turn produce identifiable on-chain patterns useful for detection.

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CSAM Crypto Economy

CSAM operations reveal a different structure. It was found that roughly half of transactions are under $100, and there is a shift toward subscription-based models that generate predictable revenue streams. In 2025, Chainalysis observed growing use of Monero and instant exchangers to launder CSAM proceeds, in addition to an emerging overlap between CSAM networks and sadistic online extremism communities, where abuse material is monetized through cryptocurrency payments.

One major CSAM site identified in July 2025 alone used more than 5,800 crypto addresses and generated over $530,000 since 2022. The report also stated that trafficking-linked services leverage US-based infrastructure for scale and legitimacy, while operators often remain overseas to limit personal exposure.

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XRP Rally Fails as Traders Take Early Profit: What’s Next?

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XRP Exchange Net Position Change

XRP price surged sharply, nearly posting an 18.7% intraday gain before surrendering half of that advance. The token now trades near $1.53 after closing with a 9% rise. 

Premature profit-taking by holders capped momentum and may influence XRP price direction in the coming sessions.

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XRP Selling Continues

Exchange net position change data indicates that selling among XRP holders remains consistent. Green bars on the metric show continued inflows to exchanges, which typically signal intent to sell. This steady movement suggests holders are offloading XRP during price rallies.

Outflows continue to dominate net flows despite the recent surge. Investors appear eager to secure profits after weeks of volatility. Such behavior often suppresses sustained breakouts and reinforces consolidation near resistance levels.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

XRP Exchange Net Position Change
XRP Exchange Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode

The MVRV Long/Short Difference highlights the dominance of XRP short-term holder profits. This metric measures the distribution of unrealized gains between long-term and short-term investors. Current low readings indicate that short-term holders hold a larger share of profits.

Short-term holders typically react quickly to price increases. Their tendency to sell at the first sign of gains likely contributed to the rally’s abrupt halt.

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As long as STH profits dominate, upward momentum may encounter repeated resistance.

XRP MVRV Long/Short Difference.
XRP MVRV Long/Short Difference. Source: Santiment

XRP Price May Face Some Resistance

XRP nearly recorded an 18.7% rise during the latest trading session before settling at a 9% gain. The long wick and rapid reduction in upside reflect early profit booking. Such behavior highlights fragile bullish conviction despite renewed interest.

The immediate objective is securing $1.51 as a support floor. XRP trades slightly above that level at $1.53.

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Resistance near $1.62 may cap gains, and renewed selling from short-term holders could pull the price back toward $1.36.

XRP Price Analysis
XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If distribution slows and demand stabilizes, XRP could regain upward traction.

A decisive move above $1.62 would strengthen the technical structure. Sustained buying could drive the price toward $1.76, invalidating the bearish thesis and reinforcing recovery momentum.

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Crypto Needs Privacy To Scale in Payments: Binance Co-Founder CZ

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Privacy, Changpeng Zhao

The lack of privacy for onchain transactions is one of the biggest hurdles to the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies for payments and a medium of exchange, according to Changpeng Zhao, co-founder of the Binance cryptocurrency exchange.

The executive commonly known as “CZ” said the lack of privacy prevents businesses and institutions from paying expenses in crypto. He gave this example: 

“Lack of Privacy may be the missing link for crypto payments adoption. Imagine a company pays employees in crypto onchain. With the current state of crypto, you can pretty much see how much everyone in the company is paid by clicking the ‘from’ address.”

Privacy, Changpeng Zhao
Source: CZ

In a previous conversation with investor and host of the All-In Podcast Chamath Palihapitiya, CZ also cited physical security concerns as a reason why onchain transparency is a risk to users. The comments follow a revival of privacy and the cypherpunk ethos in crypto.

Cypherpunk ideology is central to the birth of cryptocurrencies, peer-to-peer digital money that can be transferred without centralized intermediaries, and the encryption of online communication to shield messages from surveillance.

Privacy, Changpeng Zhao
CZ discusses the state of the crypto industry with Chamath Palihapitiya. Source: All-In Podcast

Related: ‘No privacy’ CBDCs will come, warns billionaire Ray Dalio

Encrypt everything: the rise of onchain privacy

Businesses and institutions will not embrace crypto, Web3 platforms, or blockchain if they cannot shield their transactions, Avidan Abitbol, the former Business Development Specialist for the Kaspa cryptocurrency project, told Cointelegraph.

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Transaction data contains critical information about corporate workflows, trade secrets, business relationships and can provide clues about a company’s overall financial health to competitors, he said.

These issues can lead to corporate theft, negatively impact corporations during business negotiations and increase the threat of an institution being targeted by scammers, Abitbol added.