US lawmakers have pushed back a vote on major crypto market-structure legislation, extending a period of regulatory uncertainty for institutions that need clearer rules on trading, custody, and oversight. The delay, confirmed by U.S. Senator John Thune’s office to Cointelegraph, means the bill will not be considered before the August recess, with Thune’s team describing it as a priority for September.

Industry leaders say the postponement could reshape competitive dynamics outside the United States. First Digital founder and CEO Vincent Chok, whose firm issues the FDUSD stablecoin, argued that jurisdictions with clearer frameworks—particularly in Asia—could use the additional time to attract capital and talent as US uncertainty weighs on institutional adoption.

Key takeaways

• Senator John Thune’s office confirmed the US Senate will not vote on the crypto market-structure legislation before the August recess, pointing to September as the next window.
• First Digital CEO Vincent Chok said prolonged regulatory uncertainty is harder for markets to adapt to than slower timelines.
• 1inch’s deputy general counsel warned that a failure to enact the legislation could lead back to “regulation by enforcement,” leaving firms reliant on agency interpretations and case-by-case action.
• The EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) is already in force, creating a contrasting regulatory timeline compared with the US.
• Some commentators interpret the delay as a political outcome that may further incentivize development “offshore” while US rules remain unsettled.

Senate delay extends uncertainty for institutional crypto

According to confirmation from Thune’s office to Cointelegraph, the Senate will not bring the bill to a vote before the August recess. Thune reportedly cited Democratic opposition, and said the legislation would be a priority when senators return in September.

While a delayed vote can be normal in legislative calendars, Chok’s concern was specific: for market participants, the most damaging factor is not simply a slower process but extended ambiguity. In a statement shared with Cointelegraph, he said that “markets can adapt to slower timelines,” but “what they struggle with is prolonged uncertainty.”

Chok tied the issue directly to institutional readiness. Without clear market-structure rules, he argued, institutions are left without dependable guidance on topics that are central to mainstream adoption—especially market design, custody practices, and regulatory oversight.

“Regulation by enforcement” risk and fragmented rules in the US

Maylea Ma, deputy general counsel at decentralized exchange aggregator 1inch, emphasized what changes if Congress does not pass the legislation. In her view, the industry could move toward a familiar pattern: “regulation by enforcement.”

Ma said that in such a scenario, firms would remain dependent on how regulators interpret rules and enforce them on a case-by-case basis. She also pointed to a fragmented US landscape, where companies may have to navigate overlapping state-level money transmitter requirements alongside securities-law interpretations that can vary by jurisdiction and enforcement posture.

That uncertainty is particularly consequential for institutional participants, which generally require more predictable compliance expectations before scaling operations, offering services, or integrating crypto infrastructure into broader financial workflows.

Asia’s window to demonstrate “clear regulation and innovation” together

Chok suggested the delay could strengthen the relative attractiveness of global hubs that have already pursued clearer regulatory positioning. He said that for Asia, postponement provides additional time for hubs such as Hong Kong and Singapore to show that regulatory clarity can coexist with continued innovation.

His underlying thesis is that capital allocation and talent decisions often respond quickly to regulatory risk. When US timelines are uncertain, institutions looking for stability may favor venues where rulemaking appears more settled—even if US legislation eventually arrives.

In that sense, the Senate’s procedural shift may have strategic consequences beyond the US market itself. The longer the pause continues, the more companies may build or expand operations in jurisdictions perceived to offer a smoother compliance path.

EU MiCA already in force, highlighting a widening timeline gap

Ma contrasted the US situation with Europe, pointing out that the European Union’s MiCA framework is already operational. She noted that MiCA is “already in force,” referencing Cointelegraph’s earlier coverage on the end of a grace period and the issuance of relevant licenses.

Under that backdrop, Ma said 1inch would continue operating with a conservative, non-custodial approach that focuses on self-custody. The key point is not that MiCA removes all complexity, but that it provides a structured regulatory timeline that companies can plan around—while the US remains tied to legislative and enforcement uncertainty.

For readers, the practical implication is that compliance planning may increasingly look “regional.” Businesses could find that their roadmaps are governed less by global principles and more by where regulatory frameworks are already active.

Political framing: ambiguity as a driver of offshore innovation

Not all reactions were confined to legal mechanics. Wellington-Altus chief market strategist James E. Thorne offered a more politically pointed interpretation, posting on X that he viewed the postponement as a “fold” by Thune and a victory for Senator Elizabeth Warren and the regulatory status quo. His argument was that continued ambiguity encourages innovation to move offshore while other jurisdictions develop clearer regimes.

While Thorne’s remarks are political rather than technical, they align with a broader market reality: regulatory uncertainty can influence where teams incorporate, where products launch, and which markets institutions consider first—especially when compliance staff need more than verbal assurances to manage risk.

As the Senate returns in September, the key question for the crypto sector is whether the legislation can clear remaining procedural hurdles—or whether the industry is pushed further into a cycle of enforcement-driven precedent. Either outcome will likely determine how quickly institutions feel comfortable moving from experimentation to scaled adoption, and it may continue shaping where global crypto activity concentrates.

Bitcoin derivatives trading is taking a noticeably larger share of activity on Binance, according to fresh analytics that highlight how spot interest has cooled while futures usage keeps building. On CryptoQuant’s data, the futures-to-spot trading volume ratio on the exchange has reached an all-time high of 7.82, meaning futures volume is now nearly eight times spot volume.

This shift matters for market structure: when spot volumes lag derivatives, price discovery can become more reflexive—driven more by leverage and hedging than by new spot inflows. With Bitcoin holding a narrow band for weeks, traders are increasingly expressing their expectations through options positioning, including bets that any eventual range break could lean downward.

Key takeaways

• Binance futures volumes outpace spot at a record pace: CryptoQuant reports a futures-to-spot ratio of 7.82.
• Spot demand has been deteriorating more consistently: CryptoQuant data shows a steadier decline since June compared with derivatives demand.
• Short-term positioning is increasingly “hedge-forward”: options traders appear to be managing downside risk for September.
• Trading range behavior persists: Bitfinex Research says volumes thin near the range extremes, suggesting neither side is forcing a breakout.

Binance’s spot-versus-futures gap widens to a new peak

CryptoQuant’s “quick take” analysis, published Friday, focuses on Binance’s daily trading volume split between spot and derivatives. The headline metric is the futures-to-spot volume ratio, which has climbed to 7.82—the highest reading CryptoQuant reports for this measure.

In the same snapshot, daily futures volume on Binance is listed at $57.82 billion for the week cited, versus $6.08 billion in daily spot volume. The imbalance indicates that a greater share of trading activity is happening in leveraged or risk-managed instruments rather than outright spot buying.

CryptoQuant contributing analyst Arab Chain linked the trend to persistent differences in how participants use markets, noting that Bitcoin was trading around $64,000 while futures activity continued to expand faster than spot. In his view, the change reflects more investors and traders leaning on futures for leverage, risk management, and shorter-term trading tactics.

For traders and investors, this is more than a curiosity about exchange usage. When spot volumes don’t keep pace, it can signal that the marginal buyer is weaker—so price moves may depend increasingly on derivatives positioning, liquidations, and hedging dynamics rather than broad spot accumulation.

Cooling spot appetite as Bitcoin stays rangebound

CryptoQuant frames the latest ratio spike as coming after months of retreating demand, particularly from retail segments. The report also points to a broader observation made earlier in coverage by Cointelegraph: retail attention has been shifting toward AI-linked equities following broader stock-market dislocations. While that comparison is outside Binance itself, it underscores a theme CryptoQuant emphasizes—spot interest has been less consistent during the current phase.

Looking specifically at demand trends, CryptoQuant states that on a rolling 30-day basis, both spot and derivatives demand are deteriorating. However, it says spot shows a more consistent decline since June, while futures has remained net positive.

Technically and behaviorally, the report ties this to the market’s two-month range above $60,000. Prolonged consolidation often dampens spot urgency because the incentive to buy increases when there’s a clearer directional move. CryptoQuant also references a period in February when Bitcoin first dropped to the $60,000 level and traders recorded a sharp spike in realized losses on-chain. Subsequent attempts to revisit that area have allegedly seen lower volumes, as both buyers and sellers appear to have exhausted enthusiasm.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju previously summarized the divergence on X, stating that Bitcoin spot demand is weakening while futures demand remains net positive—but at a level lower than during the rebound about three months earlier.

Options traders lean toward a downside resolution in September

As spot participation stays muted and futures dominate activity, market participants have been expressing expectations through derivatives beyond outright leverage—especially options. Bitfinex Research, citing its own exchange analytics and referencing Glassnode, highlighted how volume has been losing intensity on both spot and derivatives.

Bitfinex Research wrote that for the moment, activity is clustering near the middle of Bitcoin’s local range, while it thin[s] out near the extremes. It also pointed to taker volume as a sign that neither side is aggressively pushing to force a breakout in either direction.

According to Bitfinex, options positioning suggests traders expect rangebound behavior to continue through August, after BTC/USD gained 7.4% in July. The more notable shift is its outlook for September: Bitfinex said options traders are effectively pricing a likely downside resolution of the range, aligning with what it described as “familiar Bitcoin bear-market behavioral patterns.”

In other words, the derivatives market is not only doing more volume—it is also using structured contracts to hedge and to reflect a preference for a particular path of volatility. That’s consistent with the idea that when spot interest fades, traders may rely more on options to manage downside scenarios during uncertain consolidation.

What the widening ratio and hedging signals could mean next

Taken together, the Binance volume split and the options posture point to a market that is still deciding how it wants to trend—without clear spot-driven conviction. A futures-to-spot ratio near 8x can indicate that traders are increasingly comfortable operating in derivatives, but it can also raise the stakes for how quickly leverage unwinds if the range finally breaks.

For readers watching the next phase, the key question is whether spot demand can reassert itself if price attempts a move—or whether market action continues to be dominated by hedging and leverage as September approaches. The persistence (or reversal) of the futures-to-spot imbalance, alongside whether options positioning continues to favor downside, will likely be the clearest tells.

Dathon Ohm, the proposal’s pseudonymous author, declared, “Bitcoiners are about to show the world, once again, what happens when the plebs stand up against large, corrupt institutions who are telling us Bitcoin isn’t money and our nodes belong to them,” in a thread on X on Thursday.

Rhetoric aside, the thread gave instructions to miners planning on enforcing the BIP-110 rulebook, advising them to upgrade to Bitcoin Knots (the primary software carrying and enforcing BIP-110), warning that Bitcoin Core (the network’s principal software that represents the current implementation of Bitcoin’s rules) should not be run as it would become “insecure.”

BIP-110 is designed to temporarily tighten Bitcoin’s consensus rules to make inscription techniques used by Ordinals and Runes impractical. Its supports argue that use of the network for non-financial data consume block spacer, make it more expensive to run and undermine Bitcoin’s purpose of digital money.

Critics have pointed to the lack of miner support as evidence that the proposal is effectively dead. Its supporters reject that premise.

BIP-110’s proponents argue that miners do not govern Bitcoin – they merely produce the blocks. Nodes decide whether those blocks comply with rules. User-activates soft forks (UASFs) are designed around that principle, allowing node operators to begin enforcing new rules from a predetermined block height regardless of miner support.

“Only Congress can ensure that regulation in this area is future-proofed through comprehensive market structure legislation,” he said.

The pending SEC moves would follow a spate of guidance from both the SEC and CFTC that has clarified how U.S. crypto efforts can proceed without running afoul of the regulators, whether it’s mining, memecoins, rewards or several other categories. The most important of these regulatory statements emerging from the agencies was the “taxonomy” that sought to carefully define how the regulators would categorize different digital assets, and how those assets would be supervised.

Fed & Co.

Meanwhile, the banking regulators have been rapidly granting charters to crypto firms, and the Federal Reserve has been working on a tailored access to its payments rails and other services to cut out the banking go-betweens the digital assets players have relied on to serve customers. The new bank charters will have some durability, even when the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency that issues them changes management down the road.

As the Treasury Department and its tax branch, the IRS, also implement crypto-specific policies, the momentum of U.S. regulation becomes increasingly difficult to reverse.

The industry already counted a massive win last year in the passage of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS) Act. From a dicey 2022 in which crypto crashed and its highest-profile advocate was prosecuted for fraud, the sector turned things around in Washington to get a law governing U.S. stablecoin issuers and — for the first time — officially adding crypto to the regulated financial system.

Bitcoin (BTC) derivatives trading volumes are now nearly eight times higher than spot markets on Binance.

Key points:

• Bitcoin daily spot trading volumes on Binance are diverging from futures more than ever.
• Spot demand has declined in recent months, while futures demand is still net positive, per data from CryptoQuant.
• Options traders are hedging for downside in September after months of rangebound BTC price action.

Binance sees record split in Bitcoin spot vs. futures trading

Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant released on Friday reveals record readings for Bitcoin futures-to-spot trading volume ratios. The ratio now stands at 7.82, meaning that futures volume outweighs spot nearly eight times over.

Daily futures volume on Binance hit $57.82 billion this week, while spot trailed at $6.08 billion.

“Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading near $64,000, while futures trading volume continues to grow at a faster pace than spot trading volume,” CryptoQuant contributing analyst Arab Chain commented on the data. 

“This trend reflects a shift in market activity, with more investors and traders preferring to use futures for leverage, risk management, and short-term trading strategies.”

Bitcoin futures-to-spot trading volume ratio (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

The record comes after months of retreating investor demand, with the exodus particularly noticeable in the retail trading sector. Previously, Cointelegraph reported that AI stocks have become a key destination for retail capital.

CryptoQuant data shows that on a rolling 30-day basis, both spot and derivatives demand continue to deteriorate, with spot showing a more consistent decline since June. 

BTC/USD has spent the past two months in a narrow range above $60,000, contributing to a lack of interest among spot traders. Traders initiated a major spike in onchain realized losses in February, when Bitcoin first dropped to the $60,000 mark. However, subsequent retests have seen lower volume as both buyers and sellers have become exhausted.

Bitcoin net realized profit/loss data. Source: CryptoQuant

“Bitcoin spot demand is weakening. Futures demand remains net positive, but is significantly lower than during the rebound three months ago,” CEO Ki Young Ju reported in a post on X late last month.

Bitcoin spot vs. futures demand. Source: Ki Young Ju on X.com

Traders position for September BTC price range breakdown

Examining the odds of a Bitcoin price breakout from its local trading range this week, crypto exchange Bitfinex flagged decaying volume across both spot and derivatives markets.

Related: Bitcoin treasury trade ‘breaking’ and fund holdings drop 10%: Analysis

“For now, volumes cluster in the middle of the range and thin out near the extremes. Taker volume especially is a sign that neither side is pushing hard to break the range in either direction,” its analytics arm, Bitfinex Research, wrote in an update.

Bitfinex said that options traders were positioned for rangebound conditions to continue in August, following a 7.4% gain for BTC/USD in July. In September, meanwhile, they expect the range to resolve to the downside, following familiar Bitcoin bear-market behavioral patterns.

“Options traders are effectively pricing in a continuation of the range and, on aggregate, hedging for a downside resolution of it several weeks from now,” it added alongside data from onchain analytics platform Glassnode.

Bitcoin options composite chart. Source: Bitfinex

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