Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) briefly surged toward the $70,000 level on a U.S. bank holiday before retreating, underscoring how thin liquidity can amplify price moves in markets with limited participants. The session featured swift reversals as major venues saw shallow order books, allowing large players to push the price in sharp, short-lived bursts and then pull back just as quickly. Traders described a day of both dramatic squeezes and measured pauses, with liquidity gaps creating a backdrop where price action could swing without a clear directional trend. While the move rekindled talk of potential bottoming signals, observers cautioned that a single holiday-driven spike is not a proof point for a durable trend, particularly given the broader context of a market accustomed to volatile cross-currents.

Key takeaways

• Holiday-thinned liquidity on a U.S. trading day amplified both upside and downside moves, with BTC briefly touching $70,000 before a pullback.
• Price action occurred in a tight range, described by analysts as a pattern of “breakouts and shakeouts” that failed to establish a decisive breakout.
• CoinGlass tracked roughly $120 million in crypto liquidations across four hours, highlighting the reflexive nature of order-book dynamics during low-volume sessions.
• Weekly RSI readings dipped to 27.8, the lowest since June 2022, fueling discussions about potential cycle lows and macro bottoming patterns.
• Market commentary emphasized ongoing liquidity-driven reversals, with notable divergence in activity on different exchanges and persistent bullish-bias signals outside of a handful of venues.
• A sequence of social posts from traders highlighted mixed sentiment, with some noting net buying pressure overall while exceptions persisted on certain platforms such as OKX.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Price impact: Neutral. The episode demonstrated how thin liquidity can drive rapid intraday reversals without signaling a sustained directional shift.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Given the absence of a clear breakout and the sensitivity to depth on holiday sessions, traders may prefer to wait for a more decisive move backed by stronger liquidity and higher-volume participation.

Market context: The latest price activity reflects a broader pattern in crypto markets where liquidity constraints during holidays or low-volume sessions can magnify swings. It also sits amid ongoing debates about macro risk sentiment, ETF-related flows, and the persistence of risk-on versus risk-off dynamics that shape digital-asset price formation.

Why it matters

The episode matters because it exercises a fundamental risk for traders: price discovery in environments where liquidity is not consistently deep. Thin order books can magnify both hopeful breakouts and fear-driven reversals, making risk management and position sizing more critical than in normal trading conditions. For market participants, the contrast between a swift move to the multi-year high vicinity and a rapid retracement underscores how much of Bitcoin’s price action still depends on the availability of buyers and sellers at key price levels rather than on a sustained flow of capital. The event also provides a practical test bed for risk controls, as exchanges and liquidity providers calibrate their resilience to sudden, liquidity-driven shocks.

From a technical perspective, weekly RSI readings toward oversold territory suggest potential patience is warranted before drawing conclusions about a longer-term bottom. Yet the narrative is not binary: the same chart readings were cited in past cycles as precursors to stalled consolidations or gradual basing patterns rather than immediate recoveries. Analysts emphasized that while the current RSI dip resembles patterns seen in previous bear markets, it does not guarantee a repeat of those outcomes. The broader takeaway is a need to monitor how price, momentum, and volume evolve together in the weeks ahead, particularly as markets digest macro inputs and any incremental developments in crypto regulation or product approvals that could influence risk appetite.

On-chain and on-exchange observations further enrich the story. Market participants noted blocks of liquidity getting reconfigured as bids and offers were removed and re-placed at new levels, reinforcing the sense that order-book dynamics played a leading role in the day’s action. The interplay between short-term liquidations, bid-ask wall reformation, and whale activity suggested a tug-of-war between buyers aiming for a breakout and sellers defending certain price zones. In this context, a minority of observers highlighted a pattern that echoes the bear-market conditions of 2022, while others warned that a single holiday-driven session is not the best proxy for broader market health or a definitive trend reversal.

Social signals added texture to the narrative. One prominent trader noted that net buying pressure remained robust across most venues, with OKX standing out as an exception where the balance shifted toward selling pressure. The dialogue around the differing dynamics across exchanges highlighted how venue-specific liquidity can shape price trajectories in real time, contributing to a landscape where market participants must weigh cross-exchange liquidity, funding conditions, and cross-venue order flow as part of a single, evolving story.

Beyond Bitcoin itself, observers highlighted ongoing patterns in price response to liquidity shocks across the crypto market. The day’s action fed into a broader conversation about how investors seasonally recalibrate risk, particularly during holiday windows when traditional liquidity pools are thinner and risk sentiment can swing on a coin flip. While the event did not trigger any explicit new catalysts, its implications for short-term trading strategies—particularly those relying on liquidity-driven breakouts—remain a focal point for traders who seek to understand how much of BTC’s price movement is driven by depth versus fundamental shifts in demand.

What’s different about $BTC from yesterday is that net buying is maintained except for OKX. pic.twitter.com/x3Y1OegrsI

— CW (@CW8900) February 16, 2026

What to watch next

• Follow BTC price action in the next several sessions to determine if a sustained move beyond the current range emerges on higher liquidity.
• Monitor the weekly RSI to see whether momentum stabilizes above oversold territory or slides deeper, which could influence near-term bias.
• Track liquidation flows and changes in order-book depth across major venues to assess whether the market is rebalancing its risk tolerance.
• Observe cross-exchange buy/sell pressure differences, particularly after the holiday period, to gauge whether a broader consolidation or a fresh breakout is forming.
• Keep an eye on macro catalysts and regulatory developments that could shift appetite for risk assets in the coming weeks.

Sources & verification

• TradingView BTCUSD price action within the holiday session showing moves toward and away from $70,000 (BTCUSD chart).
• CoinGlass liquidity and liquidation data indicating roughly $120 million in liquidations over four hours.
• Material Indicators’ analysis of BTC/USDT liquidity and whale activity on major exchanges.
• Social posts from Daan Crypto Trades and Keith Alan discussing RSI patterns and bear-market similarities.
• Public social post from CW highlighting net buying dynamics and exchange-specific commentary.

Rewritten Article Body: Liquidity squeezes and RSI signals shape BTC price action on a holiday

Bitcoin, trading as Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), confronted a unique set of conditions on a U.S. bank holiday: liquidity was thin, and that scarcity amplified even modest market forces into notable intraday moves. The price briefly tested the $70,000 mark before retreating, a pattern consistent with the kind of rapid, liquidity-driven reversals that have become familiar in low-volume sessions. Rather than a clean breakout, the action unfolded in a narrow corridor, with bids and asks repeatedly clearing and reforming at new levels as traders recalibrated risk exposure in the absence of the usual institutional floor.

Market observers described a day of “breakouts and shakeouts”—moments when prices appeared ready to run but were quickly checked by the lack of robust order-book depth. The dynamic is a reminder that, on days when major markets are closed, a handful of large participants can move prices meaningfully without the broader market’s participation. The net effect was a series of swift moves that left many participants unsure of the prevailing directional bias, reinforcing a common refrain: liquidity is the prime mover in such environments, more so than fresh macro catalysts or new fundamental data.

Data from CoinGlass illustrated the scale of activity during the session: approximately $120 million in liquidations occurred across a four-hour window. This is a hallmark of a market where thin liquidity can produce outsized volatility, as participants face sudden sifts in supply and demand balance. In practical terms, those who believed the momentum favored a sustained tilt toward the upside found themselves facing rapid opposition as new walls formed above and below the current price to absorb incoming bids or offers. The absence of deep liquidity magnifies the impact of individual large trades, making every order a potential flash point for the next move.

On the technical front, a closer look at momentum indicators painted a nuanced picture. Weekly RSI readings dipped toward oversold territory, with the metric landing at 27.8 on one trading day—its lowest reading since June 2022. Some analysts pointed to this as a potential bottoming signal, drawing parallels to prior bear-market cycles where oversold conditions laid the groundwork for a period of consolidation and eventual macro recovery. Others cautioned that history does not guarantee a repeat outcome and that the present pattern could diverge from 2022 depending on subsequent liquidity and macro dynamics. The discussion underscored how traders weigh technical signals in conjunction with the underlying liquidity environment, rather than relying on any single indicator in isolation.

Beyond the numbers, the day’s narrative included qualitative observations about exchange-specific activity. Traders noted that buying pressure remained more robust than on the previous session, with the exception of OKX, where selling pressure appeared to dominate. This divergence highlighted how different venues can diverge in real time, driven by liquidity distributions, funding conditions, and the behavior of large players who shuttle capital across platforms. A prominent market participant summarized the sentiment on social media, noting that net buying was generally positive across most venues, but the OKX discrepancy reminded the market that liquidity fragmentation persists and can influence short-term outcomes in unpredictable ways.

In a broader context, the episode fed into ongoing discussions about how crypto markets navigate cycles of risk appetite and liquidity stress. While the price action did not deliver a definitive directional signal, it reinforced a familiar pattern: during periods of limited depth, price discovery is a two-way process propelled by cautious, incremental moves rather than a single decisive breakout. The presence of “breakouts and shakeouts” as a recurring motif highlights how traders are adapting to a market structure where depth can evaporate quickly, forcing participants to reprice their expectations with each new order that clears the book.

Looking forward, the market will likely want to see a more explicit signal of conviction—whether it be a sustained move above a key level with robust volume or a decisive breakdown that confirms a shift in risk sentiment. For now, the data suggests that the landscape remains dominated by short-term liquidity dynamics rather than a clear, long-term directional thesis. The ongoing debate about potential bottoming signals versus continued consolidation is a reminder that, in crypto markets, the path of least resistance is often determined by how much liquidity remains available to absorb the next wave of orders.

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The MicroStrategy stock price closed around $133 on February 13, rising 8.85% in one day. The weekly gain reached nearly 5%, showing strength despite broader uncertainty. But this rally comes at a strange time. Bitcoin fell about 2.2% over the same period, creating a gap between the two assets that rarely lasts long.

New data shows that MicroStrategy and Bitcoin are moving almost identically again. The 7-day rolling correlation has surged to 0.98, near perfect alignment. This tight link means the MicroStrategy price prediction going forward in 2026 may depend heavily on Bitcoin’s next move. At the same time, momentum indicators and volume signals show early warning signs that the recent MSTR price bounce may face pressure.

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MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Correlation and RSI Signal Correction Risk

Rolling correlation measures how closely two assets move together over a set period. The current 7-day correlation of 0.98 means MicroStrategy and Bitcoin are moving in nearly the same direction. This is the highest level since early February. When correlation reaches this level, price moves in one asset often carry over to the other.

This creates a risk because Bitcoin has weakened recently while MicroStrategy stock moved higher. Such gaps often close when markets reopen, causing delayed corrections.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a hidden bearish divergence. RSI measures buying and selling momentum by comparing recent gains and losses. Between December 9 and February 13, the MicroStrategy price seems to be forming a lower high.

However, during the same period, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, has already flashed a higher high. This pattern is called hidden bearish divergence. It shows that even though momentum appears stronger, the underlying price structure remains weak. Sellers may still be in control.

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A similar divergence formed earlier between December and February. After that signal, MicroStrategy stock dropped nearly 14%. The same setup is now appearing again.

The key level to watch is $133 ($133.88 to be exact). If the next MicroStrategy (Strategy) stock price candle stays below this level, the correction risk remains active. A move above it would weaken this bearish signal (the hidden divergence) for now and could further the bounce. But that would also mean that Bitcoin’s influence would weaken temporarily.

Institutional Buying Supports Price, While Retail Selling Weakens Conviction

Despite the bearish momentum signal, institutional investors are showing a different behavior. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator tracks large money flows into and out of an asset. Since November 21, the MSTR price has trended lower overall. But CMF has steadily moved higher and is now above zero.

This means that large investors have continued to buy even as the price has struggled. Institutional accumulation can reduce downside risk and stabilize prices during corrections.

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However, retail investors are showing the opposite trend.

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator tracks cumulative buying and selling volume. Unlike CMF, OBV has been trending lower since November, aligning with the price. This shows that smaller investors have been selling during recent months.

This creates a conflict. Institutional buyers are supporting the price, but retail investors are possibly reducing exposure. The key OBV level now sits near 972 million. If OBV fails to break above this level, it would confirm continued retail weakness. This would increase correction risk and support the forming bearish divergence signal.

This conflict between institutional and retail investors leaves MicroStrategy’s price prediction uncertain in the short term.

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MicroStrategy Price Prediction Depends on $139 Breakout or $119 Breakdown

The MSTR price levels now provide the clearest guide to the next move. On the downside, the first key support level sits at $119. This level aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement and represents a potential 10% decline from current levels. This target also matches the size of previous divergence-driven corrections.

If MicroStrategy stock falls below $119, the next support sits near $106. This would represent a deeper correction and confirm seller control.

On the upside, the most important recovery level is $133, as mentioned earlier, followed by $139. This resistance has capped recent rallies. A confirmed breakout above $139 would signal renewed strength.

If this breakout happens, MicroStrategy stock could move toward $165. A stronger rally could extend toward $190 if Bitcoin also recovers. However, if Bitcoin weakness continues, MicroStrategy could follow lower due to the strong correlation.

For now, MicroStrategy stock remains at a critical point. The extremely high correlation with Bitcoin means its next move may depend on Bitcoin’s direction. If Bitcoin weakness continues, the MicroStrategy stock price could face a delayed correction. But if institutional buying continues and resistance breaks, the bullish trend could still resume for MSTR.

TLDR

• Nexo is relaunching its crypto services in the United States after more than three years of absence.
• The platform will offer yield programs, a spot exchange, and crypto-backed credit lines to US users.
• Nexo has partnered with Bakkt to provide the trading infrastructure for its US operations.
• The company’s return is driven by improved regulatory clarity for digital assets in the US.
• Nexo’s new US operations will be based in Florida and run by an announced management team.

Crypto platform Nexo is set to return to the United States after more than three years. The company paused its operations in 2022 due to regulatory concerns. Now, with clearer guidelines in place, Nexo aims to offer crypto services including yield programs, a spot exchange, and more.

Nexo Partners with Bakkt for Trading Infrastructure

Nexo’s trading infrastructure will be powered by Bakkt, a US-based digital asset platform. Bakkt primarily serves institutional clients but will help Nexo build its new US offering. Eleonor Genova, Nexo’s head of communications, confirmed that the platform will provide both flexible and fixed-term yield programs.

The platform will also feature crypto-backed credit lines and a loyalty program for US customers. Nexo’s management team will operate the new venture from Florida, with plans to announce the team soon. Genova emphasized that all services will be offered through partnerships with licensed US providers.

After leaving the US market in late 2022, Nexo now sees improved regulatory clarity for digital assets in the country. The company originally withdrew due to what it called an unfriendly regulatory environment under former SEC chair Gary Gensler. Nexo’s “Crypto Earn” program, which lets users earn interest on their crypto holdings, was a key issue in the company’s exit.

Nexo settled with the SEC in 2023, agreeing to pay $45 million for failing to register its interest-bearing program. The company later shut down the program for US users, marking the end of its earlier US operations. Despite these setbacks, Nexo now believes the regulatory landscape is more favorable for blockchain businesses.

Nexo’s Relaunch and US Crypto Regulatory Landscape

Nexo’s return comes as the US continues to work on crypto regulations. The House recently passed the CLARITY Act, but the Senate has yet to move it forward. Patrick Witt, a White House crypto advisor, called for compromises to pass crypto-related legislation before the 2024 elections.

This renewed effort to regulate crypto coincides with Nexo’s own regulatory framework. Genova stated that the new US operations are compliant with US securities laws. The company hopes to provide a stable platform for crypto users amid ongoing regulatory discussions.

Nexo’s rebooted platform will rely on third-party advisory services registered with the SEC. This ensures that the services offered are in line with applicable securities laws. The crypto exchange aims to establish itself as a trusted platform for US users after its previous exit.

Nexo is set to relaunch its digital asset services and crypto exchange platform in the US on Monday, more than three years after it left the market following battles with federal and state regulators.

Now, citing improved regulatory clarity for digital assets in the US, the rebooted Nexo platform will offer flexible and fixed-term yield programs, a spot cryptocurrency exchange, crypto-backed credit lines and a loyalty program for US users, Nexo head of communications Eleonor Genova told Cointelegraph.

The platform’s trading infrastructure will be provided by Bakkt, a US-based digital asset platform focused on serving institutional clients. Genova said:

“Nexo’s US offering is structured through partnerships with appropriately licensed US service providers. Certain services are made available via a third-party Securities and Exchange Commission-registered (SEC) investment adviser, which provides advisory services under applicable US securities laws.”

The new US operations will be based in Florida and run by a management team to be announced soon, according to the company.

Nexo first announced plans to re-enter the US during an exclusive event in April 2025, which featured Donald Trump Jr., the son of US President Donald Trump, as a keynote speaker. At the event, Trump Jr. described crypto as the future of finance.

Related: Nexo to pay $500K fine to California regulator over ‘risky loans’

2022 exit cited regulatory uncertainty under Gensler regime

Nexo left the US market in December 2022 during the depths of the crypto bear market, citing the hostile regulatory posture toward the crypto industry under the leadership of former SEC chair Gary Gensler.

The company said it had decided to exit the US out of necessity after engaging in “good faith” conversations with US state and federal regulators over 18 months that did not move the needle.

“It is now unfortunately clear to us that despite rhetoric to the contrary, the US refuses to provide a path forward for enabling blockchain businesses,” the company said at the time.

Nexo’s “Crypto Earn” program, which allowed users to earn compounding interest on select cryptocurrencies loaned to the platform, was a major point of contention between the SEC and the company.

In January 2023, Nexo agreed to a $45 million settlement with the SEC over failing to register its interest-bearing crypto rewards program with the regulator. The company also settled a $22.5 million multi-state securities settlement related to the earn interest program.

The company shuttered its Crypto Earn program for US users one month later.

Washington mulls crypto “clarity”

Nexo’s market reentry comes amid efforts in Washington to pass a bill defining how US market regulators will police crypto. The House passed a similar bill, the CLARITY Act, in July, but the effort has stalled as the Senate Banking Committee has yet to gather enough bipartisan support to advance it.

White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt said on Friday that both sides must compromise on the issue and push for passage before November’s midterm elections. Contributing to the stalemate are concerns voiced by crypto industry executives, which US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes have negatively impacted the industry, he told CNBC on Friday.

A White House-brokered meeting last week between crypto and banking industry representatives to reach an agreement on stablecoin provisions in the market structure bill was described as “productive,” but remains unresolved. 

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