Crypto World
UK probes Nigel Farage’s crypto “gifts” after by-election win
UK Reform leader Nigel Farage is facing an ongoing probe by the UK Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards over an alleged failure to register certain financial interests tied to crypto-linked donations. The investigation, shown on the Commissioner’s website as of Friday, was briefly paused after Farage resigned his seat following his July exit from Parliament, but restarted after his return as Member of Parliament for Clacton.
According to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards’ public register of allegations currently under investigation, the concern centers on whether Farage properly disclosed interests related to receiving millions of dollars’ worth of donations and gifts connected to two figures in the crypto sphere. The scrutiny could carry consequences under UK parliamentary rules, including potential suspension from Parliament.
Key takeaways
- Farage is under investigation for “failure to register an interest,” according to the UK Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards.
- The probe relates to crypto-linked giving from Christopher Harborne, described in reporting as worth $6.7 million, and to funding connected to Farage’s staff and security.
- Under UK rules, MPs must register current interests within a month of election and disclose relevant benefits received in the prior 12 months.
- If the investigation finds a breach, Farage could face suspension—potentially triggering another by-election.
- The political fallout has also reignited UK discussions about whether to restrict “crypto gifts” to prevent possible foreign influence.
Why the standards investigation is back on
The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards’ allegations page currently lists Farage as being investigated for failing to register an interest tied to donations and gifts from individuals connected to the crypto industry. The investigation had been halted in July after Farage resigned from Parliament—an action that followed earlier reporting on the donation controversy—before resuming after he was reelected as MP for Clacton.
Farage’s return came after a by-election in which he secured a commanding victory. Earlier coverage of the July by-election reported he won with 63% of the vote, defeating satirical candidate Count Binface’s 27%, and that none of the other major parties participated in the race.
What the probe is expected to examine
While the standards record frames the issue as a failure to register an interest, the substance of the inquiry is tied to specific arrangements and the timing of disclosure.
The Commissioner’s listing—alongside related reporting—points to the alleged gifts and benefits potentially received by Farage and his operations. Reporting cited in the article states the probe will consider:
- Crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne giving Farage $6.7 million.
- Farage’s staff and security being funded by George Cottrell, described in reporting as a convicted fraudster tied to a crypto casino.
The relevant UK framework requires newly elected MPs to register financial interests within one month of their election. They are also expected to report benefits received in the 12 months preceding their election.
Farage’s stated characterization of the gifts
The underlying dispute is not only about whether the interests were disclosed, but how they were described and treated under parliamentary expectations. Reporting referenced in the source article notes that Farage initially characterized Cottrell’s donation as a “reward” for campaigning related to Brexit and later referred to both men’s contributions as “gifts” provided “on an unconditional basis.”
Those descriptions may matter because the standards process focuses on registration obligations rather than intent alone. The central question for the Commissioner will be whether the benefits required disclosure were entered into the register correctly and within the required timeframe.
Potential parliamentary consequences
If the investigation concludes that Farage breached parliamentary rules, the sanctions can be significant. The possible outcome highlighted in the reporting includes suspension from Parliament, which would likely trigger another by-election.
Cointelegraph attempted to obtain comment from the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards on the probe but did not receive an immediate response.
Beyond Farage personally, the case also underscores the scrutiny UK lawmakers face around political donations and gifts—particularly when the money originates from complex, cross-border financial ecosystems that include crypto businesses.
Broader pressure to tighten crypto donation rules
The investigation has arrived amid renewed policy debate inside the UK. The source article states that Labour lawmakers have reportedly proposed making a previously discussed moratorium on crypto donations permanent—originally linked to measures announced in March—to address concerns about the potential influence of foreign actors.
That discussion is set against guidance referenced from the International Bar Association. According to the source, unincorporated associations are allowed to give more than $675 directly to UK politicians, a structure that the IBA has described as creating a potential loophole. The concern, as characterized in the reporting, is that such arrangements could be used as conduits for “foreign or dark money.”
Whether any new rules ultimately address the issues raised by the Farage investigation may depend on how regulators and lawmakers define “crypto gifts,” determine how they should be valued, and decide which entities must be considered when mapping beneficial ownership and control behind donations.
For investors, builders, and users watching UK policy, the next step is the standards investigation’s findings: what the Commissioner decides about disclosure timing, the classification of benefits as registrable interests, and whether this case drives faster regulatory action on crypto donations. Until the probe reaches a conclusion, the practical uncertainty is likely to remain—both for individual politicians and for the wider political fundraising rules that govern crypto-linked money.
Cointelegraph is committed to providing independent, high-quality journalism across the crypto, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries.
All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy.
RedotPay’s planned US initial public offering (IPO) has reportedly been pushed back as the stablecoin payments firm focuses on expanding into the United States. Bloomberg reported on Friday that the timing of the offering has been delayed, citing people familiar with the matter as RedotPay works through regulatory approvals and ongoing legal disputes.
A RedotPay representative declined to comment on specific IPO timing when asked by Cointelegraph. Instead, the company highlighted its near-term operational priorities, saying it obtained a US money transmitter license this week and is preparing to launch its product in the country.
Key takeaways
- Bloomberg reports RedotPay’s US IPO plans have been delayed while the company pursues additional approvals and manages legal risk.
- RedotPay says it secured a US money transmitter license this week and is preparing a US product launch.
- The delay comes amid a lawsuit in which Binance affiliates are seeking nearly $473 million in damages.
- RedotPay has previously discussed a potential New York listing and has also explored raising additional funding ahead of a public-market debut.
US IPO ambitions meet a shifting priority list
RedotPay first drew attention in February, when reports said the company was considering a New York listing. At the time, the prospect included the involvement of major Wall Street firms—JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Jefferies Financial Group were reported to be involved—and RedotPay was said to be targeting a valuation above $4 billion.
Bloomberg’s latest report frames the IPO slowdown less as a withdrawal of intent and more as a timing adjustment: RedotPay appears to be working to strengthen its US compliance footing while legal challenges continue to play out. For investors and market watchers, the practical question is whether the company can align its regulatory rollout with public-market readiness, especially in a US environment where stablecoin-related businesses face heightened scrutiny.
Separately, Cointelegraph reported earlier this year that RedotPay had been in discussions to raise as much as $150 million, even as it adjusted its organization to support a potential “unicorn” transition. Those reported funding and leadership changes suggest RedotPay was already positioning itself for a future listing—making any IPO deferral notable for shareholders watching catalysts and timelines.
New US licensing is a near-term catalyst
While RedotPay’s IPO timetable appears to have moved, the company’s immediate focus is its US expansion. According to a statement provided to Cointelegraph, RedotPay obtained a money transmitter license in the US this week and is preparing to launch its product in the country.
That licensing step matters because it speaks directly to whether a stablecoin payments business can operate with the regulatory infrastructure required in the United States. If the company’s launch proceeds as planned, it could help RedotPay generate real-world traction in one of the most important markets for crypto-adjacent payment services—even if the public offering itself takes longer than originally contemplated.
Still, the licensing win does not automatically resolve everything needed for an IPO. Public listings typically require a clear path through regulatory and legal uncertainties, along with disclosure and risk management that underwriters and boards must be comfortable with. RedotPay’s recent legal entanglements therefore remain a central factor shaping how quickly investors may see a filing or public-market debut.
Binance lawsuit raises pressure on timing and risk profile
Legal issues have intensified around RedotPay. Earlier in August, Binance affiliates filed a lawsuit in Hong Kong against RedotPay’s founders, seeking nearly $473 million in damages. The plaintiffs allege that confidential information—obtained through prior work with Binance—was used to build a competing payments business and to attract Binance users to RedotPay.
RedotPay denies the allegations and told Cointelegraph it would “vigorously defend all claims.” Even so, litigation of this size can affect corporate decision-making, particularly for companies weighing a US IPO where due diligence, disclosures, and investor risk appetite are tightly linked to ongoing disputes.
The conflict has also spread into Singapore. Cointelegraph previously reported that Binance and RedotPay disagree on the outcome of a related case. RedotPay told Cointelegraph this week that it expected Binance to discontinue that matter, while Binance rejected RedotPay’s account and stated its claims remain active.
This multi-jurisdiction picture is part of what may be pushing IPO timing later. For potential investors, it creates uncertainty around the company’s future legal costs, settlement risk, and potential operational distractions—factors that can weigh on underwriting timelines and the composition of any public-market narrative.
What to watch next for RedotPay
RedotPay’s next moves likely hinge on two tracks running in parallel: regulatory execution in the US and the evolution of its legal disputes. The company’s money transmitter license and planned product launch provide a concrete operational milestone, but the reported IPO delay suggests that legal overhang still matters for capital market plans.
For readers tracking the story, the key developments to monitor are whether RedotPay’s US launch progresses smoothly, whether any court proceedings shift in the Binance-related cases, and whether RedotPay revises its earlier public-market timeline after regulatory and legal questions become clearer.
Long positions in XRP have grown rapidly over the last few weeks, with well over $1.5 billion worth of exposure being added to the derivatives market since the start of August.
This buildup of leverage exposure is indicative of increased bullish positioning among traders who expect the coin to stage a recovery.
According to Crypto Rover, XRP is building up “parabolic” exposure, and this has been attributed to the recent growth in long positions. It is evident from the above chart that exposure has been steadily increasing to reach around $1.596 billion.
Notably, while futures exposure growth might indicate similar demand for XRP in the spot markets, it is possible for traders to build up such exposure without buying any XRP at all.
XRP Testing $1 Support as Price Structure Narrows
XRP is currently trading at $1.0056, and the psychological $1.00 level has been the focus of the present market structure. For the past few months starting from February, the daily chart has created lower highs under a descending trendline, thus signifying that sellers have been controlling the market more.
Another trendline has been created since June on the $1.00 support level, thereby forming a narrowing structure in the form of a descending wedge. Now, XRP is nearing an important level as the price narrows under both support and descending resistance levels.
The crucial resistance level is seen in the range of $1.10–$1.15. Any daily close above this region will make the existing bearish market structure weaker and move the market toward the next technical level of $1.20. In case of a breakdown below $1.00, the current setup will be invalidated.
Weak RSI Keeps Momentum Under Pressure
Momentum indicators are keeping their guard up. The daily RSI comes in at 35.64, while the moving average holds at 39.90. Both figures continue trading below the neutral 50 line, suggesting that bearish momentum is still prevailing within the overall pattern.
On the other hand, the RSI approaches the oversold area. Although this is a signal that selling has gone too far, it does not mean that a reversal will happen immediately. Traders may want to see some RSI recovery before calling the momentum change a definite one.
Trading volume also remains relevant. Previously, lower levels had been seen alongside increased trading, while consolidation is now seen amid low volume. This means buyers have not shown enough interest in the asset yet.
Crowded Longs Lead to a Double-Edged Structure
The emergence of more bullish XRP longs, along with $1 support and a squeezed price range, creates a high-risk structure. If spot demand improves and XRP breaks above $1.10–$1.15, the bullish positioning could help to continue the uptrend toward $1.20.
Nevertheless, if XRP fails to hold $1.00, the situation could turn out differently. In such an event, crowded longs could get liquidated, adding to downside momentum.
XRP is now at a crossroads in terms of the technical picture. A breakout from descending resistance lines would indicate a rally, while a daily close below $1.00 could confirm the bearish structure.
Cointelegraph is committed to providing independent, high-quality journalism across the crypto, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries.
All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy.
Security incidents and corporate balance-sheet decisions are reshaping how mainstream investors think about Bitcoin, even as regulated products pull in fresh capital. A reported $116 million hardware wallet exploit has reignited the debate over self-custody, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs notched their strongest weekly inflows since April—suggesting demand is returning alongside renewed concern about holding funds directly.
Meanwhile, major industry players are making moves on the edges of the Bitcoin ecosystem: Strategy is signaling a return to accumulation after a period of small sales, Riot Platforms is reportedly lining up long-term power for a large AI compute deal, and Trump Media is revisiting how it manages a crypto-linked treasury after a steep quarterly loss.
Key takeaways
- A Coldcard-related hardware wallet vulnerability tied to roughly $116 million drained in Bitcoin has pushed attention back toward self-custody risks.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $1 billion in net inflows for the week, marking their strongest performance since April.
- Strategy CEO Phong Le says the company intends to resume Bitcoin accumulation later this year after scrutinized, smaller sales this year.
- Riot Platforms is reportedly securing a 20-year, 191 MW power arrangement tied to a major “frontier AI” customer identified by Bloomberg as Anthropic.
- Trump Media disclosed large unrealized losses tied to its crypto and securities holdings and said it will revamp its digital asset treasury strategy.
Strategy signals renewed Bitcoin accumulation
Strategy CEO Phong Le told FOX Business that the company plans to resume Bitcoin accumulation later this year, aiming to reassert its long-term treasury approach after a stretch of relatively small sales drew public scrutiny. Le said Strategy has “bought” roughly 175,000 BTC and sold about 7,000 BTC this year—roughly 25 times more buying than selling.
Even with that imbalance, the company’s willingness to sell periodically has remained a point of focus. Le said Strategy now holds more than 840,000 BTC and remains the largest institutional Bitcoin holder, but has sold Bitcoin on four occasions since May. The most recent sale referenced in the report was the unloading of 1,690 BTC to fund preferred dividends, buybacks, and its dollar reserve.
Analysts note that the issue is not just whether a company sells, but what those sales mean for capital efficiency. According to Novaque Research, when corporate treasuries trade below Bitcoin net asset value, raising additional capital can be increasingly dilutive—making the financing cycle harder to sustain. In that context, Strategy’s stated intent to accumulate again may be interpreted as an attempt to reduce the long-term friction created by repeated sales for shareholder and reserve needs.
ETF inflows strengthen as self-custody concerns resurface
While Bitcoin’s spot price has remained subdued, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $1 billion in net inflows for the week, according to Cointelegraph’s reporting referenced to data on weekly ETF flows. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas described the period as the third-best week since October, using the term “silent IPO” to explain how early supply dynamics can keep price action muted even as institutional demand grows.
The renewed inflow momentum has also come as attention returns to a major self-custody failure: a Coldcard hardware wallet exploit linked to faulty key generation that reportedly drained about $116 million in Bitcoin. Balchunas said the incident could ultimately enhance the appeal of ETFs for investors concerned about self-custody risks, pointing to the post-hack rebound as a possible—though not proven—connection.
In his comments, Balchunas also cautioned that correlation does not imply causation. Still, his broader point was that if security scares continue to surface, some investors may decide that regulated products better match their risk tolerance—particularly those who want exposure without managing key storage themselves. What remains uncertain is whether inflows will persist beyond a short-term narrative effect, or whether the ETF market will return to a more typical pattern as memories fade and wallets fix vulnerabilities.
Riot’s reported 191 MW AI power deal highlights capacity constraints
Bitcoin miners are increasingly positioning their infrastructure for demand outside traditional hash-rate competition. Riot Platforms is reportedly negotiating a major compute-adjacent arrangement: a 20-year contract for 191 megawatts of capacity from Riot’s Texas campus. The report identifies the customer as “a leading frontier AI” company, with Bloomberg naming Anthropic.
According to the coverage, Riot said the agreement was tied to a long-term supply of power from its Rockdale campus. The timing matters because data center expansion has faced persistent constraints, and power availability is often the limiting factor for large-scale AI deployments. In that sense, miners with energy access can present themselves not only as Bitcoin producers, but also as suppliers of the physical capacity AI builders require.
The broader trend is visible across the sector. The report lists several Bitcoin miners that have expanded or announced AI-adjacent efforts, including Bitdeer, CleanSpark, MARA Holdings, Core Scientific, Hut 8, and IREN. Riot’s stock performance also reflected investor appetite for this shift: shares fell 5.4% Monday before rising 21% overnight and were up roughly 50% year-to-date at the time of the report.
Trump Media revises crypto treasury approach after large quarterly loss
Corporate exposure to crypto remains a sensitive balancing act, and Trump Media’s latest disclosures underline how quickly valuation changes can hit financial results—even without selling. The company said it will revamp its digital asset treasury strategy after unrealized losses contributed to a $238 million second-quarter net loss, emphasizing the risks of holding digital assets and related securities on a balance sheet.
Trump Media reported $190.4 million in unrealized losses across its digital assets during the quarter and pledged digital assets and equity securities in the period. It also disclosed that it held 9,477.16 Bitcoin as of June 30, down from 9,542.16 in the prior quarter. In July, the company sold $159.6 million in Bitcoin-related securities and used proceeds to buy more Bitcoin, increasing its holdings to about 14,139 BTC worth $890.5 million by July 31.
Beyond the mark-to-market impact, the company warned that generating additional income from its Bitcoin holdings could introduce counterparty risk. It noted the possibility that a counterparty could default or become insolvent, potentially limiting recovery of Bitcoin committed under unsecured arrangements. The company also indicated that it plans to redirect more resources toward Truth Social, Truth+ and other media operations as part of broader capital allocation changes.
Going forward, investors should watch whether Strategy’s renewed accumulation language translates into measurable buy activity, whether ETF inflows remain resilient beyond the immediate post-hack period, and how corporate treasuries adjust their risk controls as more security incidents and valuation swings test the durability of different Bitcoin exposure models.
The cryptocurrency market is another sea of red today (August 14), with Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and many more posting losses.
However, Cronos (CRO) has defied the ongoing pullback, and some analysts believe its price could pump even higher if it clears key levels.
Turbulent Days
The last several days have been quite eventful for CRO, which experienced severe volatility. Earlier this month, Trump Media (the entity behind Truth Social) withdrew its intentions to ink an ETF deal with Crypto.com and backed off its plans to accumulate $6.4 billion in CRO.
The token reacted negatively to the news, tumbling to around $0.046, its lowest level in the past three years. It spent the next few days trading below $0.05 before bulls finally reclaimed that mark (albeit briefly) earlier today. As of this writing, CRO trades at around $0.048 (per CoinGecko), representing a 5% daily increase.
The most likely catalyst for the resurgence appears to be Ryan Wyatt’s announcement. The CEO of Cronos App revealed that next month the platform “goes global to everyone” on iOS and Android. He said that users can access sports, stocks, crypto, and perps, and that they are “just getting started.”
“More to share in the future: plans for CRO, sharing future feature rollouts, a desktop version of Cronos, and more,” he added.
Analyst Crypto With Gopal claimed that the price has formed a double bottom after retesting the $0.046 support zone twice, with buyers defending that zone and building a potential reversal base.
“The key confirmation is a breakout above $0.050 resistance. A confirmed breakout could open the way toward the chart’s $0.055 target. Market sentiment: Bullish setup – $0.050 breakout is the trigger,” he concluded.
Maintain Realistic Expectations
Wyatt’s disclosure has indeed triggered a clear price increase in CRO, yet it is unlikely to cause a sustainable rally. The excitement may soon fade, and sellers could retake the helm, while the persistent bear market isn’t helping either.
Another negative factor is CRO’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has risen to around 74. This suggests the asset has entered overbought territory and could be gearing up for a short-term pullback. The technical analysis tool ranges from 0 to 100 where anything below 30 is usually viewed as a buying opportunity.
The post Cronos (CRO) Rises 5% Daily Following Major Ecosystem News: Details appeared first on CryptoPotato.
On August 13, Trezor disclosed that a data breach at its shipping partner, ShipMonk, exposed the personal information of roughly 13,700 recent customers, including names, phone numbers, and home addresses.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) responded by arguing that the incident shows a real advantage of software self-custody wallets, since they don’t require shipping a physical device that ties a buyer’s identity to a home address.
Trezor Breach Puts Physical Addresses in Focus
Trezor disclosed the incident after ShipMonk, a logistics provider, notified the company on Monday, August 10, about unauthorized access to systems holding customer order data.
CZ reacted on Thursday, contending that the incident highlights a different risk profile for hardware and software self-custody.
“Hardware wallets are often considered ‘more secure’ than software wallets,” he wrote. “While I still think that is ‘generally true’ in a few specific aspects, this incident reinforces an advantage of software self-custody wallets.”
He pointed to examples such as Binance Web3 Wallet and Trust Wallet, which do not require shipping a physical device that ties a user’s identity and address to crypto ownership.
CZ also stopped short of dismissing hardware wallets. “Not saying hardware wallets are ‘bad,’” he wrote. “Just different profiles.” He added that YZiLabs is an investor in many hardware wallet companies.
Contributing to the debate, NaoX Protocol said the exposed addresses could give attackers a list of verified crypto holders worth targeting in person. Bitcoin security executive Nick Neuman similarly warned that the data could lead to targeted social engineering and potentially wrench attacks, where criminals use physical threats to steal funds.
Trezor said customers could face more sophisticated phishing through email, phone calls or letters. It urged users never to enter their wallet backup online or share it with anyone.
A Rough Stretch for Hardware Wallets
The timing adds to a run of bad headlines for hardware wallet makers. In mid-July, on-chain investigator ZachXBT called the category unfit for serious use, writing on Telegram that “all hardware wallets are complete garbage.”
He argued a spare phone used only for signing transactions could work better, citing dead batteries, forced firmware updates, and interface bugs as recurring problems. The Trezor breach is a different kind of failure, as it involves exposure through a vendor rather than the device, but it fits the same conversation about costs beyond the seed phrase.
Furthermore, last week, Galaxy Research linked more than $100 million in stolen Bitcoin to a separate issue in older Coldcard firmware, which generated wallet seeds with weaker randomness than intended. Coinkite has patched the flaw in newer releases but cannot fix seeds already generated on affected devices and has told holders of its Mk3 through Q models to move funds to unaffected hardware.
This isn’t the first time Trezor has found itself in such a situation, with a separate breach tied to a third-party support vendor exposing contact details for around 66,000 users in January 2024.
The post CZ Says Software Wallets Avoid Risks Seen in Trezor Leak appeared first on CryptoPotato.
He said he had 3-D printed a gun and attached a silencer.
Mangione did not face murder charges in federal court. The federal judge on Friday set a hearing date of Dec. 18 for Mangione’s sentencing.
The guilty plea marks a remarkable shift in Mangione’s defense, as he had previously pleaded not guilty to all the federal and state charges he was facing.
Thompson’s family said in a statement shared with news outlets after the hearing on Friday that Mangione’s guilty plea “marks an important step toward justice for Brian and for our family.”
“While nothing will ease the pain of losing him, we are grateful that the federal justice system has held the person responsible for this heinous act accountable,” the family said. “Now we look to the court to ensure the sentencing reflects the severity of this crime.”
UnitedHealth Group, the parent company of United Healthcare, also shared a statement after Friday’s hearing, saying: “Brian Thompson’s life was cut short by an act of violence that devastated everyone who knew and loved him. We are grateful to law enforcement for bringing Brian’s murderer to justice, and our thoughts remain with Brian’s family and loved ones during this difficult time.”
Bitcoin (BTC) declined into Friday’s Wall Street open as traders increasingly saw a BTC price breakdown next.
Key points:
- Bitcoin stays below $63,000, heading steadily closer to new August lows while US stocks build on record highs.
- Analysis says that $63,220 must be reclaimed by the weekly close to avoid a deeper rout.
- Markets look to PCE inflation data as the next key test for risk assets.
Bitcoin price sags with stocks at all-time highs
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD down 1.3% on the day at $62,570, near its lowest levels month-to-date.
BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Despite encouraging US inflation data lifting risk assets and reducing the odds of interest-rate hikes, Bitcoin failed to follow US equities, which closed Thursday’s session at all-time highs. The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index were both green at the time of writing, up 0.11% and 0.14%, respectively.
BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Commenting on Bitcoin price performance, trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that Sunday’s weekly close needed to be above $63,220.
“A Weekly Close below the orange level would probably set price up for a breakdown,” he wrote in a post on X.
The analyst noted that $63,000 was now failing as support after weakening throughout August, having previously noted that the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) at $65,827 was back as resistance, copying the 2022 bear market.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com
Cointelegraph previously reported on increasing chances of a long liquidation event for Bitcoin as it approaches an area of liquidity around $61,000 amid growing open interest (OI) in derivatives markets.
“Traders have added substantial risk, most of it long, into a market that shows no matching demand,” onchain analytics platform Glassnode summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain.
PCE in focus after Bitcoin ignores inflation relief
In its latest analysis, trading and investment company QCP Capital drew attention to crypto markets’ refusal to rally on improving US inflation conditions — a phenomenon it described as “increasingly important.”
Related: Bitcoin speculators keep BTC price ‘pinned’ below $68.7K: Glassnode
“Last week, BTC demonstrated resilience in absorbing several negative headlines without a sustained breakdown,” it wrote, adding:
“This week has reinforced the distinction between resilience and momentum: the range remains intact, but softer inflation data have so far generated only a muted response from crypto.”
QCP added that macro traders are now focused on the Aug. 26 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index release, known as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The index’s last print in July marked its first monthly decline since 2020, per data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
US PCE data percentage change (screenshot). Source: BEA
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by the end of August. He also expects a 10% correction, and he argues the market would be better off getting one.
Lee made the case on CNBC after a mild July inflation print lifted stocks to fresh records. Crypto investors watching from a $63,000 Bitcoin may find the argument uncomfortably familiar.
Why Tom Lee Wants a Correction Before Stocks Reach 8,000
Conditions look close to ideal for equity bulls. July consumer prices rose 0.1% on the month and 3.4% on the year, matching forecasts. Core inflation landed at 2.5% annually.
That print followed a weak July jobs report. Together they cut the odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to roughly 40%. The S&P 500 closed at a record on August 12, but Lee has not softened his target.
“I think the rally is quite healthy and it’s tracking to our view that we could get to 7,900, 8,000 by the end of the month,” Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, speaking on CNBC.
The math behind that runs through earnings. Lee said 2027 estimates have climbed from about $395 at the start of reporting season to roughly $410 now. A 20 times multiple on $425 would point near 9,000.
The strength is exactly what bothers him. His client note laid out four named pullback risks. He expects the top of his own target range to mark the turn.
“The end of August getting to 8,000 is going to set us up for a period where stocks could disappoint even though underlying fundamentals are good.”
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Margin Debt Sits at the Top of His Warning List
Borrowed money is his first concern. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) data put margin debt at a record $1.53 trillion in June. That marked a 7.9% jump in one month and a 51.5% rise on the year.
The bond market is his second. Kevin Warsh became Fed chair this year and brought a new inflation framework with him. Investors have not settled on how to price it.
“Part of it is the margin debt’s gotten so big. Part of it is we still haven’t resolved how the market views Kevin Warsh and his new framework, whether the bond market’s going to have a tantrum.”
November midterm elections form the third risk. The fourth is SpaceX, where a staggered lockup expiry keeps releasing insider and employee shares. Lee has flagged that unlock schedule since early July. He grouped the four together as traps rather than reasons to sell.
Not everyone on the panel shared the caution. Courtney Garcia of Payne Capital argued earnings justify current prices. Healthcare, financials, and industrials have all outrun the index over three months, she said. In her view, AI capital spending concerns have faded as results came in.
Stephanie Guild of Robinhood landed closer to Lee. Easy credit rebuilds during rallies, she said, which sets up the next sharp drawdown even while fundamentals hold.
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Bitcoin Already Took the Hit Lee Is Warning About
This is where the equity story turns awkward for crypto. Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $63,062, down 0.5% over 24 hours, with a market value of about $1.27 trillion. It remains the largest digital asset.
Stocks keep printing records while Bitcoin’s current price level sits far below its own peak. The leverage flush Lee wants for equities has already run through crypto, and it did not spare holders.
Lee made that point months ago. He argued crypto had already passed through a hidden crypto bear phase that few investors ever named. Short positioning at the time sat near levels typical of a bottom.
He also has capital behind the view. Lee chairs BitMine Immersion Technologies, a company that holds ether as its main treasury asset. He ranks Ethereum among rally leaders for the next leg higher.
His broader thesis rests on doubt rather than confidence. Many institutional clients still believe the AI trade is stretched or that earnings have peaked, Lee said. Trillions in cash also sit unspent on the sidelines. He treats that hesitation as fuel.
“So, I think that there’s people who are sort of keeping an eye on the end of the bull market, and I think that’s what’s keeping it healthy.”
The next two weeks test the first half of the call. If the S&P 500 tags 8,000 and then breaks, one question follows for crypto. Does an asset already down heavily fall further, or does it finally decouple?
The post Tom Lee Wants a 10% Crash Before S&P 500 Hits 8,000, Bitcoin Already Had One appeared first on BeInCrypto.
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