Crypto World
Paradigm reframes Bitcoin mining as a grid asset, not energy drain
A surge in AI data-center activity has rekindled a long-running energy debate, pitting grid operators and policymakers against critics who warn that massive computing operations threaten power reliability and push up electricity costs in parts of the United States. In this backdrop, a February 2026 research note from Paradigm reframes Bitcoin mining within electricity markets, arguing that it behaves as a flexible demand source rather than a static drain on energy resources. The note, which surveys grid conditions and market signals, estimates Bitcoin’s current share of global energy use at about 0.23% and its global carbon emissions at roughly 0.08%. It emphasizes that the network’s issuance schedule and periodic reward reductions inherently cap long-run energy growth, shaping how miners respond to price signals and competing generators. The analysis by Paradigm’s Justin Slaughter and Veronica Irwin, anchored by a public discussion of energy modeling assumptions, invites a more nuanced view of mining’s role in modern electricity systems, beyond broad environmental comparisons.
Key takeaways
- Paradigm argues that Bitcoin mining is best viewed as flexible grid demand, adjusting consumption in response to real-time electricity prices and grid stress rather than remaining a fixed, unresponsive load.
- The note quantifies mining’s slice of the energy pie—about 0.23% of global energy use and roughly 0.08% of global carbon emissions—while noting the long-run growth is economically constrained by the fixed issuance schedule and periodic halving of rewards.
- Critiques of mining energy use that rely on per-transaction measurements are highlighted as misleading, since energy consumption is tied to network security and miner competition, not transaction volume alone.
- With increasing AI data-center deployments, several miners are partially pivoting to AI workloads to capture higher margins, reshaping the industry’s profile and demand patterns for power.
- The policy implication is a shift from alarmist energy comparisons to evaluating mining within the broader electricity market—raising questions about how regulators should model and price flexible demand in grid planning.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Neutral
Market context: The conversation sits at the intersection of expanding AI infrastructure, grid reliability concerns, and a broader shift toward demand-side flexibility in electricity markets as crypto miners and traditional energy users alike react to price signals and regulatory frameworks.
Why it matters
The framing offered by Paradigm has the potential to recalibrate how policymakers and market participants think about crypto mining. If mining is treated as a responsive load that can scale up or down with grid conditions, it could be integrated more deliberately into demand-response programs and ancillary-services markets. This view challenges simplistic comparisons that measure energy use in isolation or rely on per-transaction efficiency metrics, which may obscure how miners contribute to grid resilience during periods of surplus or shortage.
The discussion also taps into a broader industry trend: the repurposing of crypto-era infrastructure to artificial intelligence workloads. As margins in traditional mining shift and data-center economics evolve, several players have begun to reallocate hardware and capacity toward AI processing. The shift has been noted across industry reporting and is reflected in the pathways taken by some miners to pursue higher-margin opportunities while continuing mining activities where economics permit. For example, coverage of the AI-data-center wave highlights how existing facilities and equipment can be adapted to meet surging demand for AI workloads, potentially altering regional power usage profiles and pricing dynamics.
At the core of Paradigm’s argument is the idea that energy modeling should reflect the realities of competitive electricity markets rather than rely on static benchmarks. By foregrounding grid conditions, price signals, and the possibility of demand response, the authors argue that Bitcoin mining’s energy footprint can be contextualized within the wider ecosystem of grid economics. This does not absolve miners of responsibility for energy use, but it suggests a framework in which policy decisions are informed by how mining interacts with supply and demand in real time, including its capacity to absorb excess generation or reduce demand during stress events.
The note also emphasizes that energy use and emissions are not the only metrics at play. Understanding where mining sits on the supply curve—where electricity is produced or curtailed—can illuminate why certain regions attract mining operations at particular times and how these operations might contribute to stabilizing grids during peak periods. In this sense, the narrative shifts from a binary “drain vs. benefit” debate to one about how energy users of all kinds can participate in a more dynamic, price-responsive market environment.
As AI infrastructure expands, the mining ecosystem’s response matters for both regional policy and investor sentiment. The industry’s evolving footprint—toward AI workloads in some cases—could influence where and how power is allocated, how utilities price peak versus off-peak energy, and how regulators design frameworks that accommodate flexible demand. While Paradigm’s conclusions are not universal prescriptions, they provide a structured lens for evaluating mining within electricity markets rather than through narrow environmental comparisons alone. The broader takeaway is a push for more sophisticated, market-responsive energy modeling that accounts for price signals, grid constraints, and the real-world behavior of miners under variable conditions.
What to watch next
- Publication and discussion of Paradigm’s February 2026 note and any ensuing responses from policymakers or industry groups.
- New analyses or grid studies examining the elasticity of mining demand in response to real-time pricing and transient grid conditions.
- Regulatory activity at state or federal levels addressing crypto-mining energy use, permitting, and integration with demand-response programs.
- Updates on the mining-to-AI workload transition, including pilot projects and capital reallocation by major miners such as those that have publicly discussed strategic shifts.
Sources & verification
- Paradigm, “Clarifying misconceptions about Bitcoin mining” (February 2026) – note the energy-use and emissions figures and the discussion of market signals. https://www.paradigm.xyz/2026/02/clarifying-misconceptions-about-bitcoin-mining
- Discussion of AI data centers and Bitcoin mining’s local resistance in the U.S. referencing grid- and energy-demand concerns. https://cointelegraph.com/news/ai-data-centers-local-resistance-bitcoin-mining
- Bitcoin mining outlook and profitability shifts in the context of AI-driven infrastructure changes. https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-mining-outlook-2026-ai-profitability-consolidation
- Bitcoin miner production data illustrating the scale of winter-storm disruption in the U.S. https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-miner-output-us-winter-storm-latest-data
Bitcoin mining as flexible grid demand in the AI era
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) mining is increasingly described as a dynamic, price-driven participant in electricity markets rather than a fixed-energy burden. The February 2026 Paradigm note insists that miners act as flexible loads, changing consumption in response to grid stress or surplus supply. This reframing rests on the premise that energy use is not merely a function of transaction volume; it is tied to network security, miner competition, and how power markets price electricity in real time. In practical terms, mining operations tend to gravitate toward the lowest-cost energy sources, often leveraging off-peak generation or surplus capacity, which enables them to scale demand up or down as conditions warrant. The ability to modulate consumption makes mining responsive to price signals, a characteristic that can be valuable to grid operators seeking to balance supply and demand without relying solely on traditional capacity additions.
AI data centers have accelerated this discussion, as industry coverage highlights shifts in crypto-era infrastructure toward AI workloads in some cases. While Bitcoin mining remains a core use case for many facilities, the broader trend underscores how high-density computing can be repurposed to align with profitability drivers and grid economics. Several traditional mining operators, including Hut 8, HIVE Digital, MARA Holdings, TeraWulf, and IREN, have begun exploring partial transitions toward AI processing, highlighting how portfolio strategy can adapt to evolving margins and demand profiles. The implications for energy policy are meaningful: rather than treating all high-energy activities as equivalent, regulators may consider how to integrate flexible-demand resources into reliability and pricing frameworks while maintaining environmental safeguards.
Paradigm’s argument also emphasizes that energy models should reflect the realities of constrained energy systems. If mining adapts to price signals and grid conditions, its contribution to energy demand may be more volatile but potentially more compatible with markets seeking to absorb intermittent generation or reduce peak demand. The authors point to a broader energy-economics logic: when miners respond to scarcity or surplus, they participate in price formation and help balance the system—an argument that invites policymakers to evaluate mining within the rightsized context of electricity markets and grid resilience rather than through simplistic energy-versus-environment comparisons. The discussion aligns with recent coverage of AI infrastructure’s supercycle, suggesting that the real opportunity lies not in static energy tallies but in understanding how demand shapes and responds to evolving grid dynamics.
Ether began the week trading beneath the psychological $2,000 level, extending February losses to roughly a fifth of the month’s value. Yet on-chain indicators point to a strengthening undercurrent: long-term holders continue to accumulate, while network activity trends higher. With price pressure easing, analysts are assessing whether ETH’s technical footprint and the shape of derivatives data can align with a renewed demand narrative that could sustain a rally above the $2,000 mark.
Key takeaways
- Accumulation addresses added more than 2.5 million ETH in February, lifting total holdings to 26.7 million ETH for 2026.
- Ethereum’s weekly transaction count climbed to 17.3 million, while median fees slipped to $0.008, a difference of several thousand-fold from peaks in 2021.
- Approximately 30% of circulating ETH is staked, shrinking the liquid supply and potentially supporting prices over time.
- Open interest dipped to about $11.2 billion from a late‑2025 peak, yet leverage remains elevated, signaling sustained risk-taking in the derivatives market.
- Derivatives and liquidity analytics point to stacked short-liquidation zones above $2,200 and a relatively large concentration near $1,909, underscoring the potential for a liquidity-driven move if a breakout occurs.
Tickers mentioned: $ETH
Market context: The combination of rising on-chain activity and persistent leverage suggests traders are positioning for larger moves even as spot liquidity remains cautious. A break above key levels could hinge on continued accumulation signals and the evolution of open interest across major futures markets.
Why it matters
From a network fundamentals perspective, the Ethernet ecosystem is showing a paradox: price weakness coexists with strengthening usage and capital inflows. Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) as a modular asset remains central to longer-term narrative themes — digital assets that host decentralized applications, staking, and layer-2 activity — even as macro uncertainty and rate expectations shape near-term price action. The latest on-chain data implies that the supply outlook has shifted decisively through staking and active addresses, which can influence price dynamics after problematic months for risk assets overall.
On the supply side, the blockchain’s staking dynamic reduces the amount of ETH readily available for trading. CryptoQuant data indicate that a substantial portion of circulating ETH is currently staked, which tightens the floating supply and could amplify price sensitivity to demand shifts. This trend dovetails with a broad interest in ETH as a proxy for continued growth in decentralized finance and layer-2 scaling, where throughput, efficiency, and transaction costs are under scrutiny by developers and capital allocators alike.
In terms of user activity, the February surge in accumulation activity reflects a deliberate stance by long-hold participants to increase exposure in anticipation of future price catalysts. While price remains under the $2,000 ceiling, the balance of on-chain metrics — including rising transaction volumes and a growing share of ETH held by non-exchange addresses — paints a portrait of a market that is slowly recalibrating risk premia rather than capitulating to selling pressure. This dynamic matters for market participants who rely on a combination of price action and fundamental signals to gauge the sustainability of any new leg higher.
From a trading-ecosystem lens, the four-hour chart interpretation has attracted attention: the Adam and Eve bottom pattern, commonly cited as a bullish reversal framework, suggests an initial sharp decline followed by a broad base forming at lower prices. If Ether can clear the neckline around $2,150, traders anticipate a measured move that could carry prices toward the $2,473–$2,634 range, with the caveat that invalidation would come from ongoing weakness below recent swing lows near $1,909. Open interest trends and leverage levels reinforce the need for careful risk management, as a high degree of speculative activity can magnify abrupt moves if momentum shifts.
The risk-reward dynamics are further colored by liquidity maps that highlight where stress could materialize. Data-driven views show sizable short liquidation clusters above $2,200, totaling more than $2 billion in potential pressure, while long liquidations cluster around $1,800, approaching a potential liquidity magnet around that price. In such conditions, traders monitor not just price levels but the distribution of leverage across key tiers, as a squeeze in one region can accelerate a move in another. The current mix of elevated leverage with a broad base of accumulation signals implies that a decisive move could be fast, but the direction will depend on macro tone and fresh demand cues rather than pure technical momentum alone.
What to watch next
- Watch for a convincing breakout above the $2,150 neckline on ETH’s four-hour chart, which would validate the Adam and Eve bottom pattern and open a path toward the upper target zone.
- Monitor open interest changes, as renewed accumulation in derivatives markets could accompany a fresh price leg higher or, alternatively, a rapid unwinding if liquidity conditions deteriorate.
- Track liquidity hotspots around $1,909 to assess whether this level acts as a temporary magnet that sustains a bounce or a new basing point for higher prices.
- Observe shifts in the proportion of ETH staked versus liquid supply, since sustained staking inflows can influence price sensitivity to demand surges.
- Keep an eye on long/short liquidation dynamics in the $2,200–$2,400 region, which could serve as a pressure valve or accelerant depending on the prevailing market sentiment.
Sources & verification
- CryptoQuant dashboards tracking accumulation addresses and total ETH staked
- Hyblock data indicating the share of global ETH accounts currently long
- CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps showing clusters of long and short liquidations
- TradingView ETH/USDT chart illustrating the four-hour pattern and neckline levels
Ether price action and on-chain signals in focus
Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) is navigating a delicate balance between price weakness and on-chain strength. The February acceleration of accumulation addresses, with the total rising to 26.7 million ETH, points to a durable base of holders adding exposure even as spot prices traded below $2,000. The circulating supply, of which more than 30% is staked, underscores a structural shift in supply dynamics that could temper abrupt selling pressure during muscular market moves. Meanwhile, daily and weekly activity levels — ETH’s weekly transaction count cresting at 17.3 million — indicate persistent activity, even as average fees compress to a fraction of earlier cycles. This combination of rising on-chain demand and a tightening liquid supply sets the stage for a potential rebound should macro catalysts align with technical breakouts.
From a risk-management perspective, the derivatives market remains a critical barometer. Open interest has contracted from its previous cycle peak, echoing a shift in risk appetite, yet leverage metrics hold at elevated levels. The implication for traders is straightforward: while a break above key resistance could unleash a rapid move higher, a downturn could trigger rapid liquidations given the clustering around pivotal price points like $1,909 and $2,200. The balance of signals — a rising active address base, meaningful staking, and a finite liquidity pool — suggests that further price discovery is likely to be data-driven, with on-chain metrics offering a more durable cross-check for price action than short-term sentiment alone.
Crypto exchange Binance pushed back against a recent report by Fortune, rejecting allegations that it enabled sanctions-violating transactions tied to Iran and fired compliance investigators who raised concerns.
Fortune reported Friday that internal investigators at Binance discovered more than $1 billion in transfers linked to Iranian entities moving through the platform between March 2024 and August 2025. The transactions were said to involve Tether’s USDt (USDT) stablecoin on the Tron blockchain.
Citing unidentified sources, the report claimed that at least five investigators, several with law-enforcement backgrounds, were later fired after documenting the activity. The outlet also reported that additional senior compliance staff had departed the company in recent months.
Binance disputed the characterization in a formal response. “This is categorically false. No investigator was dismissed for raising compliance concerns or for reporting potential sanctions issues as there are no violations,” the exchange wrote in an email shared by CEO Richard Teng.
Binance denies sanctions violations after internal review
Binance said it conducted a full internal review with outside legal advice and found no evidence it had violated applicable sanctions laws in connection with the referenced activity. It also rejected the suggestion that the exchange failed to meet its regulatory obligations under ongoing oversight.
Related: Binance confirms employee targeted as three arrested in France break-in
The dispute lands as Binance remains under heightened scrutiny since its 2023 settlement with US authorities in which it agreed to pay $4.3 billion for Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and sanctions violations. Founder Changpeng Zhao stepped down as CEO and later served a four-month prison sentence. Binance also agreed to being monitored and pledged to strengthen compliance controls.
Binance denied claims it is failing to meet regulatory obligations, saying it continues to cooperate under monitoring and oversight requirements. “The article suggests that Binance is “reneging” on its regulatory obligations. This assertion is false,” the exchange said.
Binance acknowledged Cointelegraph’s request for comment, but had not responded by publication.
Related: Binance completes $1B Bitcoin conversion for SAFU emergency fund
FT report questions Binance compliance controls
A December report by the Financial Times also claimed that Binance allowed a group of suspicious accounts to move significant sums through the exchange even after its US criminal settlement in 2023. Internal data reviewed by the publication showed 13 such user accounts had about $1.7 billion in transactions since 2021, including about $144 million after the plea agreement.
“We take compliance seriously and reject the framing of the Financial Times report,” a Binance spokesperson told Cointelegraph at the time, adding that all transactions are assessed “based on information available at the time,” and that none of the wallets referenced were sanctioned when the activity referenced occurred.
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Bitcoin is trading around $68,700, down nearly 22% year to date and on pace for its weakest first quarter since 2018. After starting the year near $87,700, BTC has shed almost $20,000 in just a few weeks, putting pressure on the broader crypto market.
While early-year weakness is not unusual for Bitcoin, the scale of the decline has raised concerns that the current correction may not be over yet.
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Worst First Quarter in 8 Years?
Historically, Bitcoin has posted a negative first quarter in 7 of the past 13 years.
However, a 22% drawdown would mark its worst Q1 performance since the 2018 bear market, when BTC plunged nearly 50% in the opening months of the year.
January and February both closed in the red, increasing the likelihood of a rare back-to-back negative start.
To meaningfully shift the narrative, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $80,000 region, which currently appears distant given prevailing momentum.
That said, history shows that weak first quarters do not necessarily define the full year. In eight of the past thirteen years, Q2 delivered the opposite performance of Q1.
This keeps the medium-term outlook more nuanced than the headlines suggest.
9% Bounce May Have Increased Downside Risk
Between February 12 and February 15, Bitcoin staged a sharp 9% rebound. On the surface, the move appeared constructive. Underneath, leverage data tells a different story.
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Open interest in BTC futures jumped from roughly $19.6 billion to $21.47 billion during the rebound, an increase of nearly $1.9 billion.
Funding rates also turned strongly positive, signaling that traders were aggressively positioning for further upside.
However, the broader chart structure still resembles a bear flag. The recent rally unfolded within a downward continuation pattern, and price is now drifting back toward the lower boundary of that structure.
Momentum indicators add to the caution. A hidden bearish divergence formed on the 12-hour chart, with price making a lower high while RSI printed a higher high. This pattern often appears when sellers are quietly regaining control.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss surged by roughly 90% over several days, indicating that many holders quickly returned to paper profits.
Similar profit spikes in early February preceded a 14% drop. If traders rush to lock in gains again, selling pressure could accelerate.
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Key Levels: $66K Support, $58K Downside Target
Technically, the $66,270 area is a critical near-term support. A confirmed breakdown below this zone would activate the bear flag continuation pattern.
If that happens, the next major downside target sits near $58,800, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and representing roughly a 14% decline from current levels.
A deeper extension could bring the $55,600 region into play.
On the upside, BTC needs to reclaim $70,840 to stabilize short term. A stronger breakout above $79,290 would invalidate the bearish structure and signal that buyers have regained control.
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Bitcoin Dominance and Treasury Companies Offer Mixed Signals
Beyond price action, broader market metrics paint a complex picture. Bitcoin dominance remains elevated near 58.5%, suggesting capital continues to favor BTC over altcoins during this correction. That relative strength often appears in defensive market phases.
Meanwhile, public Bitcoin treasuries continue to hold substantial Bitcoin reserves. Data from BitcoinTreasuries shows over 1.13 million BTC collectively held by public firms, led by large corporate holders.
The largest of these holders is Strategy, which holds 3.27% of the total Bitcoin supply. While this structural demand does not prevent short-term volatility, it reinforces Bitcoin’s long-term institutional footprint.
Bitcoin is caught between historical resilience and near-term technical weakness.
The 22% year-to-date drop puts Q1 on track for an unenviable record.
Meanwhile, leverage, divergence signals, and on-chain profit metrics suggest that downside risk toward $58,000 cannot be ruled out.
At the same time, elevated dominance and continued corporate accumulation highlight that the broader structure is under pressure, but not yet broken.
The coming weeks will likely determine whether this is simply another rotational phase within a larger cycle or the start of a deeper corrective leg.
Japanese public company Metaplanet reported explosive revenue growth after pivoting its business around Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency now accounting for most of its operating activity.
According to its fiscal year 2025 earnings report, revenue climbed to 8.9 billion Japanese yen ($58 million) from $7 million a year earlier, a 738% year-on-year increase. The surge followed the launch of the company’s Bitcoin (BTC) income operations.
“We launched the Bitcoin Income business in Q4 2024. Since then, this strategy has become our primary revenue source and is expected to remain a core driver of profit growth,” the company wrote.
A revenue breakdown shows about 95% of total income came from Bitcoin-related operations, largely generated through premium income from BTC options transactions. The company only began the segment in late 2024, replacing traditional business lines such as hotel and media activities as the core of its financial model.
Related: Metaplanet sticks to Bitcoin buying plan as crypto sentiment hits 2022 lows
Bitcoin price drop pushes Metaplanet into loss
Operating profit reached about $40 million, but the company still posted a net loss of roughly $619 million. The loss stemmed from accounting rules. Since Metaplanet holds large Bitcoin reserves, it must reflect price swings on its financial statements, and a more than $664 million valuation drop erased the year’s operating income.
The company has aggressively accumulated Bitcoin amid the business shift. Holdings increased from 1,762 BTC at the end of 2024 to 35,102 BTC by the end of 2025, making it the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in Japan. The company has also raised more than $3.2 billion in capital since adopting its treasury strategy.
Metaplanet described its model as a long-term Bitcoin treasury approach, aiming to “acquire and hold Bitcoin permanently to hedge against fiat currency dilution and benefit from long-term value appreciation.”
The company expects growth to continue next year, forecasting revenue of about $104 million and operating profit of $74 million.
Related: Metaplanet lifts 2026 revenue outlook despite $680M Bitcoin impairment
Metaplanet CEO reaffirms Bitcoin strategy despite market selloff
Earlier this month, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich said the company will stick with its Bitcoin-focused approach even as the broader crypto market undergoes a sharp downturn. In a post on X, he stated there would be no shift in direction despite recent volatility.
Last month, the company also approved an overseas capital raise of as much as $137 million to expand its Bitcoin holdings and reduce debt.
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Ray Dalio warned that the post-World War II order has “officially broken down,” with the world now sliding into what he bluntly calls a “law of the jungle” phase, where power, not rules, decides outcomes, and crypto investors are using the moment to renew the case for assets designed to operate outside state control.
In his latest article on X describing both internal and external disorder, the Bridgewater Associates founder wrote that great powers are now locked in a persistent “prisoner’s dilemma.” They must either escalate or look weak across trade, technology, capital flows and, increasingly, military flashpoints, making what he calls “stupid wars” frighteningly easy to trigger.
That external disorder tends to collide with internal stress, Dalio said. When economies are under strain and wealth gaps are wide, governments reliably reach for higher taxes and “big increases in the supply of money” that devalue existing claims rather than pushing explicit defaults.
That combination is exactly the type of environment in which apolitical assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and gold have typically thrived. The pitch from crypto advocates is straightforward: As governments lean more heavily on sanctions, asset freezes and money creation, investors will look harder at assets that can be held and transferred without relying on a bank or a state-backed payments system.
Liquidity data fuels hard assets
Data from Econovis found that global broad money climbed to an estimated $142 trillion in 2025 from $26 trillion in 2000.
According to ex-fund manager Asymmetry, every major BTC rally has coincided with M2 expansion, and “the next wave is building.”
Gold prices have also generally tracked the US M2 money supply, reflecting the precious metal’s status as a traditional hedge against monetary expansion.
Related: ‘No privacy’ CBDCs will come, warns billionaire Ray Dalio
A bull case for neutral money
Dalio’s framework also emphasizes how states use asset freezes, capital market bans and embargoes as standard tactics, showing how dependent traditional savings and payments are on political discretion and jurisdictional risk, and placing the case for an apolitical, borderless money front and center.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley captured the crypto community’s thoughts in a single comment, saying, “Is anyone working on global, permissionless, apolitical monetary assets and financial rails?? Could be important.”
Asymmetry made a similar point from the portfolio side, arguing that the setup Dalio is describing, a fracturing world order layered on top of what macro analysts such as Lyn Alden or Luke Gromen call fiscal dominance, where government borrowing needs effectively dictate central bank policy, is among the “most structurally bullish backdrop for hard assets in 80 years.”
Still, Dalio’s warning is not a direct forecast for Bitcoin, and the investment case for crypto remains sensitive to a wide range of factors, including interest rates, regulation, market liquidity and risk appetite. What his latest comments do provide is a clear macro narrative that many in the crypto market are using to argue that demand for “neutral money” could increase as the world becomes more fractured.
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Cardano price was stuck in a tight range on Monday, mirroring the performance of other cryptocurrencies.
Summary
- Cardano price continued its strong downward trend on Monday.
- Data shows that Cardano’s ecosystem growth has stalled.
- The team is now pegging its hope on the upcoming Midnight mainnet launch.
Cardano (ADA) was trading at $0.2815, stuck within a range it has been in for the past few days. It has dropped by nearly 80% from its highest point in November 2024.
Data compiled by DeFi Llama shows that Cardano’s ecosystem has continued to deteriorate over the past few weeks. Its decentralized finance ecosystem has continued to wane, with the total value locked falling by 26% in the last 30 days to $134 million.
Cardano has not added any new developers this year, even after securing a partnership with Pyth Network, one of the biggest oracles in the crypto industry. Pyth helps to bring off-chain data, such as price feeds, to the on-chain in an accurate way.
Adding more oracles to Cardano is one of the Pentad proposal’s top priorities, launched last year.
Cardano’s stablecoin ecosystem has also stalled. Its stablecoin supply stands at just $37 million, a tiny amount in an industry with over $300 billion in assets. The top stablecoins in the ecosystem are low-tier tokens like Moneta, Anzens, Djed, and iUSD.
Meanwhile, data compiled by CME show that the initial reception of the recently launched ADA futures has been weak, with the open interest being much lower than other tokens like Bitcoin and XRP.
Cardano is pegging its turnaround on Pentad and the upcoming Midnight mainnet launch, which will happen in the final week of March. Midnight will be a privacy-focused sidechain on Cardano, which is expected to attract more developers in the ecosystem.
Cardano price technical analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that ADA price has been in a strong downward trend in the past few months, a move that has cost investors billions of dollars, with its market capitalization falling to over $10 billion.
Cardano has moved below the important support level at $0.3040, its lowest level in July and September 2024. It also remains below all moving averages, while the Percentage Price Oscillator remains below the zero line.
Therefore, the most likely Cardano price prediction is bearish, with the initial target being the year-to-date low of $0.2255. A drop below that level will indicate further downside toward the key support level at $0.200.
The addition is the first crypto company to be licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission since June 2025, when the regulator approved Hong Kong BGE.
Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has added another company to its list of formally licensed cryptocurrency trading platforms, according to a Friday announcement.
The SFC’s list of licensed virtual asset trading platforms includes Victory Fintech Company Limited as the latest of now 12 cryptocurrency and blockchain entities on the Hong Kong regulator’s website. The addition of Victory marked the first time since June 2025 that the SFC had approved a crypto trading platform in Hong Kong.
Although Hong Kong has been known for some time as a particularly strict jurisdiction in for crypto companies to operate in, authorities have been pursuing unlicensed virtual asset trading platforms as a criminal offense since June 2024. Many exchanges that had previously been operating in Hong Kong shut down, while others like OKX and Bybit withdrew their licensing applications.
Related: Crypto funds log fourth week of outflows at $173M as BTC dips below $70K
In January, Hong Kong’s Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, Christopher Hui, said regulators, including those at the SFC, were planning to submit a draft ordinance for providers offering crypto advisory services sometime in 2026. While a dozen companies are now licensed under the SFC, Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority listed no licensed stablecoin issuers as of Monday.
HK allows licensed companies to engage in crypto margin financing, perpetual trading
The addition of Victory Fintech came just a few days after Hong Kong’s SFC said it will allow licensed brokers to provide virtual asset margin financing. The securities regulator’s guidance only allows Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) to be eligible as collateral, initially.
The SFC also outlined a framework for trading platforms to offer perpetual contracts to professional investors.
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Ether (ETH) opened the week with a drop below the psychological $2,000 level, placing the altcoin into a 20% loss for February. Still, onchain data shows long-term investors accumulating ETH and rising network usage.
Now, analysts are examining how ETH’s technical outlook and the derivatives data align with its emerging demand to determine if a prolonged rally above $2,000 is possible.
Key takeaways:
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Over 2.5 million ETH flowed into accumulation addresses in February, lifting holdings to 26.7 million for 2026.
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Ethereum weekly transactions hit 17.3 million as the median fees fell to $0.008, a 3,000x drop from 2021 peaks.
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ETH open interest dropped to $11.2 billion, but leverage remains elevated, with liquidation clusters stacked near $1,909 and $2,200.
Ether accumulation grows despite price drop
Ether accumulation addresses added more than 2.5 million ETH in February, even as the price declined about 20%. Total holdings have risen to 26.7 million ETH, up from 22 million at the beginning of 2026.
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe noted that ETH valued against silver is at its lowest level on record, arguing that such difficult market phases often present a long-term accumulation window.
The network demand is also improving alongside improving fundamentals. Over 30% of ETH’s circulating supply (37,228,911 ETH) is currently staked, reducing the liquid supply. At the same time, weekly transaction count reached an all-time high of 17.3 million, while median fees fell to $0.008.
In comparison, head of research at Lisk, Leon Waidmann, noted that the weekly transactions were near 21 million, but the median fees surged above $25 during the 2021 peak. The current structure reflects a higher usage at significantly lower cost.
Related: Harvard endowment reduces stake in Bitcoin ETF, adds Ether exposure
ETH compresses below $2,000 as leveraged traders brace for a breakout
On the four-hour chart, Ether appears to be forming an Adam and Eve bottom, a bullish reversal setup that begins with a sharp, V-shaped low (the “Adam”) followed by a slower, rounded base (the “Eve”).
The structure reflects an initial aggressive sell-off that quickly finds buyers, then a period of gradual accumulation as the volatility contracts.
A confirmed breakout above the $2,150 neckline validates the pattern and may open the door toward the $2,473–$2,634 region, based on the measured move projection from the base. The invalidation remains below recent higher lows, with $1,909 acting as a key short-term liquidity level.
Open interest has declined to $11.2 billion from a $30 billion cycle peak in August 2025. However, the estimated leverage ratio remains elevated at 0.7, only slightly down from 0.77 in January. This suggests leverage is still concentrated in the system, increasing the possibility of a sharp move.
Hyblock data shows that 73% of the global accounts are currently long on ETH. Liquidation heatmaps show more than $2 billion in short positions clustered above $2,200, compared with roughly $1 billion in long liquidations stacked near $1,800, highlighting a heavier squeeze risk to the upside.
Although the nearest dense cluster sits at $1,909, where $563 million in longs are vulnerable, which may act as a potential short-term liquidity magnet before the expected uptrend.
Related: Crypto funds log fourth week of outflows at $173M as BTC dips below $70K
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The head of Germany’s central bank signaled a deliberate shift in Europe’s approach to digital money, endorsing euro-denominated instruments as a path to greater autonomy in payments. Joachim Nagel, president of the Deutsche Bundesbank, used remarks at the New Year’s Reception of the American Chamber of Commerce in Frankfurt to outline support for both a euro-denominated central bank digital currency (CBDC) and euro-stablecoins for everyday transactions. He noted that EU officials are actively pursuing a retail CBDC and argued that stablecoins pegged to the euro could help Europe “become more independent in terms of payment systems and solutions.” The comments underscore a broader, ongoing debate about how Europe should compete with dollar-based rails in a rapidly evolving digital money landscape.
Key takeaways
- Europe is actively weighing a retail CBDC alongside euro-denominated stablecoins as tools to improve payment efficiency and sovereignty.
- European officials view euro-stablecoins as a potential means to reduce cross-border settlement costs for businesses and individuals.
- The discussion sits against the backdrop of a US framework for payment stablecoins, with the GENIUS Act cited as a benchmark for regulatory direction.
- Nagel warned that European monetary policy could be impaired if USD-denominated stablecoins grow too large a share of the market.
- In parallel, a wholesale CBDC could enable programmable payments in central bank money, signaling a possible shift in how banks settle transactions.
Market context: The dialogue arrives as Washington accelerates work on a broader regulatory framework for digital assets, including stablecoins, with White House discussions and Senate consideration surrounding the CLARITY Act. The GENIUS Act, referenced in policy discussions, would shape how payment-focused stablecoins are governed in the United States, potentially influencing cross-border competition and global liquidity channels.
Why it matters
At the core of Nagel’s remarks is a recognition that Europe cannot rely solely on US-dominated payment rails if it wants to preserve sovereignty over its monetary infrastructure. The Bundesbank chief’s emphasis on euro-denominated stablecoins points to a belief that European coins could complement, rather than replace, traditional fiat money by enabling near-instant cross-border transactions at a lower cost. In practical terms, euro-stablecoins could streamline settlement for trade, remittances, and business-to-business payments across the single market and beyond, potentially reducing frictions tied to currency conversion and correspondent banking networks.
Yet the path forward is not without risk. Nagel highlighted that a wholesale CBDC could unlock programmable payments in central bank money, a feature that could transform how financial institutions manage liquidity, settlement risk, and monetary policy transmission. Still, he warned that if USD-denominated stablecoins were to gain outsized market share, European monetary sovereignty could be compromised. Those tensions mirror broader global debates about who controls the rails for a digital, borderless payments landscape and how to balance innovation with financial stability.
The remarks come amid broader regulatory activity in the United States. Lawmakers and White House officials have been meeting with banking and crypto industry representatives ahead of potential votes on legislation such as the CLARITY Act, which seeks to establish a comprehensive framework for digital assets. The GENIUS Act, referenced in various policy discussions, would establish a structured approach to stablecoins and their use in everyday payments. The legislative process is ongoing, with timelines cited for implementation once enacted or once related regulations are finalized. These developments signal a convergence of policy considerations in the United States and Europe as both blocs weigh how best to foster innovation while protecting financial stability.
Against this regulatory backdrop, European institutions have continued to explore practical pilots and market offerings that could align with a euro-centric digital money strategy. The intersection of central bank digital currency planning and private sector stablecoins could yield a spectrum of options for users—from instant, low-cost cross-border transfers to programmable payments anchored in central bank money. The evolution of these ideas will likely depend on how policymakers assess risk, privacy, interoperability, and compatibility with existing monetary policy frameworks.
What to watch next
- Progress on the European Central Bank’s retail CBDC framework and any concrete milestones for a euro-denominated digital currency in 2024–2025.
- Regulatory developments in the United States around the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, including any votes or regulatory proposals that could shape cross-border stablecoin flows.
- Policy debates within the Eurogroup and European Parliament on how euro-stablecoins should be treated for consumer protection, taxation, and financial stability.
- Implementation timelines for the US framework and how retail and wholesale digital assets might interact with euro-denominated instruments in a global settlement landscape.
- Industry actions, including testing and deployment of euro-stablecoins in cross-border corridors and any notable pilot programs among European banks and fintechs.
Sources & verification
- Bundesbank speech: “priorities and challenges for Europe in a changing world,” link to the official Bundesbank page detailing Nagel’s prepared remarks.
- GENIUS Act context: coverage of the bill’s status and its implications for stablecoins and payment systems in the United States.
- White House discussions on stablecoin yields and regulatory approaches as referenced in public reporting on CLARITY Act proceedings.
- ING Germany’s crypto ETP/ETN offerings in the market and related commentary on how financial institutions are adapting to crypto products.
Sources & verification
Euro-denominated stablecoins and a European CBDC: implications for payments
Europe is rapidly outlining a digital money strategy that blends central bank-issued digital currencies with privately issued, euro-pegged stablecoins. Nagel’s remarks reflect a strategic shift: rather than purely adapting existing fiat rails, Europe appears to be exploring digital instruments designed to operate alongside traditional money while offering new capabilities for payments and settlement. The emphasis on euro-denominated stablecoins as a vehicle for cross-border transactions aligns with a broader push to reduce frictions in regional commerce and to avoid overreliance on dollar-based settlement networks. By framing these instruments as potential levers for European sovereignty, Nagel signals that digital money policy is moving from abstract theory to concrete policy design and market testing.
The discussion also underscores the complexity of implementing these tools in a way that preserves financial stability and consumer protections. A wholesale CBDC, with its programmable-money feature set, could enable central banks to automate and tailor payments at scale. Yet such capabilities raise questions about privacy, data governance, and the potential impact on bank balance sheets as settlement rails evolve. While euro-stablecoins could offer efficiency gains for cross-border flows and domestic payments, policymakers will need to weigh currency sovereignty against integration with global markets, ensuring interoperability with existing payment ecosystems and compliance with anti-money-laundering standards.
On the policy front, the United States is actively shaping its own framework for digital assets, and lawmakers have signaled a willingness to adopt a comprehensive regime. The GENIUS Act and related measures aim to provide a clear regulatory pathway, while ongoing White House discussions with financial institutions and crypto firms illustrate the complexity of balancing innovation with risk controls. The timing of these regulatory moves is critical, given the speed at which digital payment technologies are evolving and the possibility that stablecoins could become a dominant cross-border supplier of liquidity if left unregulated or underregulated. In Europe, the path forward will be shaped by the European Central Bank’s decisions, national implementations, and the region’s ability to coordinate with international standards to ensure compatibility and resilience across the payment ecosystem.
Ultimately, Nagel’s comments framing euro-denominated tools as a means to strengthen European autonomy in payments reflect a broader trend: governments are increasingly looking to digital money not merely as a fintech curiosity but as a strategic pillar of monetary sovereignty, financial stability, and competitive positioning in a rapidly digitizing global economy.
From Chatbots to Autonomous Agents: The Next Phase of Artificial Intelligence
For years, artificial intelligence has been dominated by conversational assistants capable of answering questions, generating content, and supporting knowledge work. Today, however, the industry is undergoing a far more profound transformation: the shift from chatbots to autonomous AI agents capable of acting directly within digital environments and completing tasks end-to-end. This transition, widely referred to as
the Agentic Revolution, marks the emergence of a new class of systems that do not merely communicate, but observe, reason, and operate.
Early projects such as Manus AI demonstrated that agents could plan, decompose complex objectives, and coordinate multi-step reasoning. Building on this foundation, Anthropic’s Claude Computer Use now represents a major leap forward: one of the first commercially available AI agents capable of using a real computer autonomously, browsing the web, interacting with graphical interfaces, and executing full workflows in the same way a human operator would.
This development signals a fundamental change in how artificial intelligence interfaces with the digital world, transforming language models into fully operational digital workers.
How Claude Computer Use Works: The Computer-Using Agent Model
Claude Computer Use is based on the concept of a Computer-Using Agent (CUA). Rather than relying on predefined APIs or rigid automation scripts, the agent interacts directly with the operating system via the graphical user interface.
The system visually perceives the screen using computer vision, recognises interface elements such as buttons, text fields, menus, and windows, and interprets them within a semantic and task-oriented context. Given a user objective, the model applies its reasoning capabilities to construct a plan by decomposing the task into a sequence of atomic actions, such as moving the cursor, clicking, typing, scrolling, and navigating between applications and web pages.
Crucially, Claude does not follow a fixed script. It can adapt to unexpected interface changes, recover from errors, reassess its strategy, and continue execution dynamically. This level of flexibility distinguishes it from traditional robotic process automation and brings its behaviour much closer to that of a human digital operator.
From Manus AI to Claude: The Evolution Towards Fully Operational Agents
Manus AI introduced the idea of general-purpose agents capable of long-horizon reasoning, task decomposition, and tool orchestration. However, its interaction with software systems was still largely mediated through structured tools and APIs.
Claude Computer Use removes this intermediary layer by allowing the agent to operate the computer directly. Any application, including legacy systems without modern integrations, becomes accessible. This shift moves autonomous agents from a conceptual framework into practical deployment, enabling real-world task execution across virtually any digital environment.
Claude vs OpenAI Operator vs Google Mariner
Anthropic is not alone in developing agentic systems. OpenAI and Google are pursuing similar goals, each with a distinct strategic focus.
OpenAI Operator is designed for high-performance task execution across web and enterprise workflows, with deep integration into the GPT ecosystem and API-driven tooling. Its strengths lie in speed, scalability, and developer extensibility.
Google Mariner focuses on autonomous web navigation and large-scale information retrieval, leveraging tight integration with Chrome, Google Search, and Google Workspace. It is particularly well-suited to research, data collection, and productivity automation within Google’s ecosystem.
Claude Computer Use differentiates itself through its emphasis on general-purpose reasoning, interpretability, and safety. Anthropic has prioritised controlled autonomy, alignment, and robust governance, making Claude especially attractive for enterprise and regulated environments where reliability and risk management are critical.
Business Implications: True Cognitive Task Automation
Computer-using agents unlock a new level of cognitive automation that extends far beyond repetitive process scripting.
In operations, they can interact with legacy systems, enter and validate data, generate reports, and coordinate internal workflows without custom integrations.
In marketing and sales, they can conduct market research, perform competitive analysis, update CRMs, manage campaigns, and publish content.
In finance, they can access banking portals, prepare financial statements, perform reconciliations, and support audit processes.
In human resources, they can screen candidates, operate recruitment platforms, schedule interviews, and automate onboarding.
These capabilities effectively create a new category of worker: the autonomous digital employee, capable of performing knowledge-intensive tasks continuously, at scale, and with near-zero marginal cost.
Security and Privacy in the Age of Autonomous Agents
Granting AI direct control over computers introduces unprecedented security challenges. Such agents may handle credentials, access sensitive information, and execute actions with real operational consequences.
Potential risks include interface manipulation, visual prompt injection, execution errors, and insufficient auditability. In response, Anthropic has designed Claude Computer Use with layered safeguards: sandboxed environments, granular permission controls, human oversight for high-impact actions, comprehensive activity logging, and strict behavioural policies.
In the agentic era, cybersecurity is no longer only about protecting data. It is about governing autonomous behaviour within complex digital infrastructures.
The Shift from Chatbots to Agents
The transition from chatbots to autonomous agents represents a structural change in software architecture.
Chatbots respond; agents act.
Chatbots operate in isolated turns; agents maintain a persistent state and long-term plans.
Chatbots are reactive; agents can be proactive and goal-driven.
This evolution is giving rise to the agentic economy, in which organisations orchestrate fleets of specialised agents that research, plan, execute, and coordinate with one another across digital systems.
Conclusion: The Dawn of the Agentic Revolution
Anthropic’s Claude Computer Use marks a decisive step in the evolution of artificial intelligence from conversational tools to operational digital entities. While Manus AI laid the conceptual groundwork for autonomous agents, Claude demonstrates their practical viability by showing that a model can control a real computer and complete complex tasks independently.
The Agentic Revolution is not an incremental improvement. It is a paradigm shift: from passive tools to active digital collaborators, from assistants to operators, from software that advises to software that executes. In the coming years, competitive advantage will increasingly depend on how effectively organisations design, govern, and scale ecosystems of autonomous agents.
We are witnessing the emergence of a new form of workforce: the autonomous AI workforce. And Claude Computer Use is one of the clearest early signals that this future has already begun.
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