Is Bitcoin Entering a Supercycle? Here’s Why This One Looks Different

A “powerful combination” of factors is rewriting Bitcoin’s bull market rules.

Bitcoin (BTC) may be entering a “supercycle,” where the traditional four-year boom-and-bust pattern weakens or breaks altogether.

New data suggest that this cycle looks different due to strong structural changes not seen in earlier markets.

Supercycle Is Taking Over

According to the latest findings by CryptoQuant, an important factor is institutional demand, driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have been bringing steady inflows this year from traditional finance rather than short-term speculative capital. On-chain data also validates this view.

CryptoQuant pointed to falling exchange reserves, which means that investors are holding Bitcoin for the long term instead of preparing to sell.

At the same time, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains at rational levels, which hints at controlled profit-taking rather than euphoric selling. The analytics platform added that Bitcoin’s broader ecosystem is now more mature, as seen in better infrastructure and scaling solutions supporting real-world usage.

Macro conditions also play a crucial role, as geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of future monetary easing strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, scarce asset. While these factors provide a credible case for an extended bull market, the concept of a supercycle can still be disrupted by external shocks.

Four-Year Cycle Is Fading

Crypto analyst Scott Melker had previously said that Bitcoin is no longer following its traditional four-year cycle as closely as in past cycles. He said that the market lacks classic late-cycle signals such as massive retail euphoria and an altcoin surge. According to Melker, many investors attempted to front-run the cycle by selling early, which may have distorted the usual boom-and-bust pattern.

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However, once that early selling pressure fades, he said Bitcoin could transition into a more mature, liquidity-driven phase, supported by institutional participation and real-world adoption. Such a scenario could potentially allow the bull market to extend beyond expectations tied strictly to the halving timeline.

PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow model, echoed a similar skepticism about rigid cycle assumptions. He argued that the four-year cycle is often misunderstood and that only a limited number of historical cycles exist. PlanB said it is not guaranteed that Bitcoin must peak within a fixed window after a halving, and added that the next major top could occur much later.