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Equity investments should give about 15% annual returns over next 5 years: Raamdeo Agrawal

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Equity investments should give about 15% annual returns over next 5 years: Raamdeo Agrawal
Motilal Oswal Financial Services‘ chairman Raamdeo Agrawal sees 15% returns from Indian equities as a probable outcome over the next five years. In an interview with Nishanth Vasudevan, the seasoned investor spoke about foreign investor sentiment, Zepto and capital gains tax, among other topics. Edited excerpts:

How are you assessing the market at this point?

I see this economy growing at about 7.5-8.5%, with corporate profits growing at more like 13-14%. So the index itself should give 12-14%.

Then it depends on how we manage our portfolios. Making 15% annually over the next five years seems to me the most likely outcome. That will double your portfolio. Markets have stagnated for two years, and maybe there will be another year of stagnation.

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The Nifty is trading at 20 times, and if earnings grow by 15%, you can reduce the P/E multiple to 17. I think the markets will most likely go up by 15-20%.


Why aren’t foreign investors buying this story then?
Foreign investors are chasing momentum, like Korea and Taiwan. And the biggest momentum is in the US itself, so it is very difficult to get money out of there. All the money is heading there. This quarter, their earnings are up 47%. So, clearly, why would money come out of there?India had become the funding market for their allocations to other emerging markets because of the AI story. Now they are completely rattled by whatever is happening in Korea. Every day it is up 8% or down 8%. The AI story is still on, but AI is not the only thing in the market.

The good part is FIIs are in a “stop selling” mode in India. That itself solves 90% of the problem for me. We are in a phase where the downside is limited.

Read more: Can Horizon Parks IPO deliver long-term growth for high-risk investors?

Is India’s capital gains tax regime a deterrent for foreign investors?

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See, it is one of the irritants for sure, but I don’t think that is the breaking point. The pain is coming from somewhere else, particularly the weak currency. They bring in dollars and must pay capital gains tax in rupees. So even if they have not made money in dollar terms, they still must pay capital gains tax. That’s what hurts them.

The thing is, most emerging markets generally don’t have capital gains tax, and it is worth thinking about. If you want a good long-term relationship with FIIs and want to keep attracting them, there should be a very friendly environment.

As one of the large investors in Zepto, what is your reading of its recent IPO attempt?

The message is very clear; till companies are actually profitable, or very close to becoming profitable within a visible timeframe, they should not tap the public market. Because it is very difficult to make the public market understand the underlying value.

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Public markets are all about earnings, earnings and earnings. And every quarter you have to report them. You could be growing at 100%, and so there will be a cost of acquisition and, hence, there will be some losses. A large private investor can understand that; the public market cannot.

Mutual fund investors have to mark to market every day. So they don’t want to invest at a price at which they can have a mark-to-market loss tomorrow.

So my sense is that maybe it was a little premature for the company to tap the public market, and that too at this scale. They must have learnt from this.

Did this episode disappoint you?

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Whenever something fails like this, I feel bad. You don’t want any entrepreneur to go through this kind of pain. Whether my investment is a failure will be decided after 10 years, not now.

But it looks bad when a company in which you have invested is passing through these kinds of challenges.

Did the promoters ask you for advice on the IPO? Did you speak to them after that?

Not after, but while this was going on, whatever I could suggest, I suggested to them. Once you are no longer hot in the minds of public-market investors, there is very little you can do about it. You have to become desirable, or worthy, for those mutual funds.

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They are big guys, and it is their money. You have to become more worthy of their money. Basically, that is the message in total.

Among bank stocks, which ones are you liking the most?

I think the industry has the most pristine balance sheets I have ever seen. Now lending has started; credit growth is at 18%. The ones with the best management will do well. That includes ICICI, SBI, the AUs of the world, Federal Bank or Karur Vysya Bank. When you have an economy with a ₹230-240 lakh crore credit book, 18% growth is massive.

What about HDFC Bank?

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There is pessimism among investors at large. All those things will someday be behind them; the regulatory requirements and all.

I can understand the pessimism around the stock price, but the bank is rock solid. Valuation-wise, this is among the lowest you could ever get it-probably the lowest in its history.

You have been sceptical about how to value IT stocks because of the AI disruption. Have you changed your mind?

A little bit. So, jobs will not be the issue. The issue is how much will the market expand. Obviously, clients will ask for productivity gains to be passed on to them.

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To my mind, the bargaining position of services companies is a little weaker. So I would say they are “headwinded”, but it’s not as disastrous as it was thought to be 12 months ago.

But what are current valuations reflecting?

Valuations are reflecting almost a terminal-value kind of situation, literally zero growth.

You are getting a 5-6% free cash flow yield, which is around your bond yield. Now, I think we have seen the bottom, but the growth phase has still not started. It may stay here for some time, until there is clarity on enterprise AI.

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Do you see a bubble in the AI theme?

Financial markets have seen big bubbles in 2000 and 2008. So, markets are very alert to this situation in AI. They are not letting it go completely out of hand. There is a self-correcting mechanism where people go overboard and then come back, like we are seeing in Korea.

Look at the sheer size of AI capex ($2-3 trillion a year), and that is spreading across the world. The world is sucking in all kinds of products such as cables, construction, cement, etc. So this prosperity is translating into corporate earnings. And hence the P/E multiples are looking reasonable.

If AI capex is overdone, then everything is overdone. If it isn’t, there might be some kind of slowdown, but I don’t think there will be a collapse.

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As a stakeholder in the broking business, what is your take on disruption in the market around the closing auction system?

They were trying to solve a problem through this. But right now, it looks like it has created a bigger problem. That said, these things can be part and parcel of long-term reforms. When dematerialisation was made compulsory, there were problems then as well. Eventually everybody fell in line. Sebi is absolutely on top of the matter. If it is not working at the desired level, they will review it and do whatever is required. I don’t know. Let’s see.

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Yen edges up as traders push back Fed rate hike bets

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Yen edges up as traders push back Fed rate hike bets
The yen crept higher against the dollar, largely shrugging off weaker-than-expected Japanese GDP data as traders postponed expectations of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year.

The yen was 0.2% stronger against the U.S. dollar at 159.055 yen, on track for a second straight day of modest gains against the greenback but still firmly within its trading range of the past week, after data released Monday ‌showed Japanese GDP ⁠for the ⁠second quarter expanded at an annualised 1.1%.

“The details were a mixed bag,” Capital Economics analysts wrote in a research note. “GDP ​expanded at a decent pace in Q2 and with the government still limiting the pass-through from higher energy ​prices,” they wrote, while a jump in government consumption “suggests that Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal policies are starting to have an impact.”

The euro was flat at $1.1573, while the British pound was up 0.1% at $1.3546. Both ​the Australian dollar and its kiwi counterpart were level at $0.7085 ⁠and $0.5891 respectively.

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Soggy ‌U.S. data, including non-farm payrolls and gauges of price inflation for consumers and ​producers, have ​doused investor expectations of rate hikes from the Fed this year, with few ⁠clues expected from the U.S. central bank until the Jackson Hole ​symposium between August 27 and 29.


“Softer U.S. data over recent weeks ​has reduced rate hike expectations, with less than one full hike now priced for December,” BNY analysts wrote. “The back end of the Treasury curve remains elevated, with some commentators attributing higher yields to credibility concerns.”
Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 66.9% probability that Fed policymakers will hold interest rates at their next two-day meeting ending on September 16, up from a 47.6% chance a ‌month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was 0.1% lower, ​trading near its ​lowest levels of the month ⁠at 99.519.

Oil prices fluctuated between gains and losses, while U.S.-Iran talks to resolve the Middle East conflict remain stalled. Brent crude edged down 0.1% at $88.48 a barrel as President Donald Trump told ​Americans to prepare for continued high fuel prices as a result of the war, while Iran called on the U.S. to accept defeat. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains a trickle.

Against the Chinese yuan, the U.S. dollar was flat at 6.7428 yuan in offshore trade ahead of activity data due for release later on Monday.

In cryptocurrencies, both bitcoin and ether were down 0.3% at $62,854.48 and $1,874.80 respectively.

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Corning: Strong AI Growth, But Much Success Is Already Priced In (NYSE:GLW)

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Corning: Strong AI Growth, But Much Success Is Already Priced In (NYSE:GLW)

This article was written by

I’m a passionate investor from the Netherlands with 12 years of stock market experience. My articles usually contain a good overview of important investment criteria. A stock for my portfolio is of interest to me if the company has the following characteristics:1. Companies that are growing in both revenue, earnings and free cash flow.2. Companies that have excellent growth prospects.3. Stocks with favorable valuations.I prefer steadily growing companies with high free cash flow margins, dividend stocks and stocks with generous share repurchase programs.Disclaimer: My articles do not provide financial advice, they reflect my own findings and insights.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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From coffee to hotpot, brands race to grab a bite of China’s growing burger market

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From coffee to hotpot, brands race to grab a bite of China’s growing burger market

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Negative Breakout: These 9 stocks cross below their 200 DMAs

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The Economic Times

In the Nifty500 pack, nine stocks’ closing prices crossed below their 200 DMA (Daily Moving Averages) on August 14, according to stockedge.com’s technical scan data. Trading below the 200 DMA is considered a negative signal because it indicates that the stock’s price is below its long-term trend line. Traders use the 200 DMA as a key indicator to determine the overall trend in a particular stock. Take a look:​

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If Meta loses this trial, Instagram and Facebook could change forever

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Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta, wearing a dark blue suit with a dark red tie

“Like” counts, for instance, have been part of Meta since its early years, when it was still called Facebook and that was its only platform.

Today, likes are omnipresent on social media platforms. It is the main way in which people engage with text, photos and videos they see online.

Yet, likes are increasingly viewed as a way to foster negative feelings, particularly among young people.

Kaley, a young woman who prevailed in her lawsuit against Meta earlier this year, described during court testimony how she created dozens of accounts on YouTube and Instagram.

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She would use the system of accounts to create likes on her own posts, hoping to drive engagement with other users and her own feelings of validation and self-worth. Kaley was only nine years old at the time. She said she remembered feeling depressed, something she was later diagnosed with, aged 10.

Research over the last several years has shown that engagement metrics such as like counts can drive feelings of rejection and depression, external in teenagers.

In the states’ lawsuit against Meta, in which the company said it has handed over more than 2 million documents, lawyers pointed to Meta’s own research that showed like counts drove “social comparison”, or the mental act of marking one’s self worth against images of someone else.

That social comparison driven by Instagram was linked to “increased loneliness, worse body image, and negative mood or affect”, according to Meta’s internal research.

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As Judge Biedscheid put it in his order, external, which was the first time a social media company has been deemed a “public nuisance”, the way Meta’s platforms have operated for over a decade has been part of a growing “youth mental health crisis” in New Mexico and elsewhere.

Now, attorneys from 30 more states will be pushing Judge Gonzalez Rogers to reach the same conclusion.

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Ferrari’s first ever electric car sold for record $40m at auction

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A white, custom version of the electric Ferrari Luce sold during a Sotheby's auction.

But Ferrari’s shares dropped the day after the Luce’s launch, following backlash over the car.

Amongst those criticising teh car were Italy’s deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini and former Ferrari chairman Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, who said the car was “risking the destruction of a legend”.

Ferrari’s chief design officer Flavio Manzoni said in an interview in May that critics are part of the innovation process and that he believed people would come to appreciate the Luce.

The company has not disclosed its target for Luce sales but, according to a Financial Times report, it has hit this year’s goal thanks to strong demand from China.

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Ferrari did not respond to a BBC request for comment on the FT’s report,

Sotheby’s said in a statement, external that the auctioned vehicle marked an “unbeatable opportunity” to own the first production car of the Luce.

The car has special wheels, customised brakes and an exclusive white finish.

The charity sale marks a “tangible expression of innovation, responsibility, and long-term vision for future generations,” Sotheby’s said.

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Ferraris often attract some of the highest prices at car auctions.

A bespoke Ferrari Daytona SP3 supercar raised $26m for the carmaker’s education initiatives at an auction in 2025. At the time it set an auction record for the highest-price paid for a new car.

The current record for the highest price paid at auction was an ultra-rare 1955 Mercedes-Benz 300 SLR Uhlenhaut Coupé, which was sold for $142m in 2022.

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JB Hi-Fi FY26 slides: record sales overshadowed by weak July trading

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JB Hi-Fi FY26 slides: record sales overshadowed by weak July trading

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Earnings call transcript: Australian Clinical Labs jumps 15.5% after FY 2026 profit gains

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Earnings call transcript: Australian Clinical Labs jumps 15.5% after FY 2026 profit gains

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Capital One Financial Stock: Solid 7% Yield From Series I Preferred Shares (NYSE:COF)

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Capital One Financial: Pullback Is A Buying Opportunity

This article was written by

Other writing on Substack: https://yieldstrategies.substack.com/I am currently focused on income investing through either common shares, preferred shares, or bonds. I will occasionally break away and write about the economy at large or a special situation involving a company I’ve been researching in. I target two articles per week for publication on Monday and Tuesday.About My Background: Bachelors in history/political science, Masters in Business Administration with a specialization in Finance and Economics. I enjoy numbers. I have been investing since 2000. Professionally, I am the CEO of an independent living retirement community in Illinois.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in COF.PR.I over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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WA government awards building grant to Di Lattes’ Carnarvon project

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WA government awards building grant to Di Lattes' Carnarvon project

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