The Federal Reserve’s struggle to manage a soft landing, where inflation falls without triggering a recession or a sharp rise in unemployment, will influence markets this week, with Wednesday’s FOMC minutes offering a closer look at whether the central bank is considering additional interest-rate increases.

Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said he sees just a 25% chance of a Fed hike in September. Rather, he expects the first move in December, even as he forecasts inflation rising again in early 2027.

Geopolitical developments will also need to be monitored, given their strong influence on volatility expectations and the price of oil.

Higher interest rates make risky assets like cryptocurrencies less attractive.

Within crypto, European Union operators face a Sunday deadline to stop transactions with 14 named crypto platforms, marking the week’s clearest regulatory milestone.

What to Watch

(All times ET)

• Crypto
  • Aug. 18: Coinbase and Circle’s USDC collaboration agreement, which governs their revenue-sharing economics, enters its first three-year renewal term.
  • Aug. 23: The EU’s ban on transactions with 14 named crypto-asset service platforms becomes applicable.
• Macro
  • Aug. 17, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Consumer Price Index YoY for July est. 2.6% (Prev. 2.8%)
  • Aug. 18, 9:15 a.m.: U.S. Industrial Production MoM for July est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%)
  • Aug. 19, 2 a.m.: U.K. Headline CPI YoY for July est. 3.0% (Prev. 2.6%); Core YoY (Prev. 2.6%)
  • Aug. 19, 5 a.m.: Euro area headline inflation YoY (final) for July est. 2.9% (Prev. 2.8%); Core YoY est. 2.5% (Prev. 2.4%)
  • Aug. 19, 2 p.m.: U.S. FOMC Minutes from the July 28–29 meeting
  • Aug. 20, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended Aug. 15 est. 201K (Prev. 209K)
  • Aug. 20, 7:30 p.m.: Japan Headline CPI YoY for July (Prev. 1.7%); Core CPI YoY est. 1.8% (Prev. 1.6%)
  • Aug. 21, 2 a.m.: U.K. Retail Sales MoM for July (Prev. 1.0%)
  • Aug. 21, 4 a.m.: Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI Flash for August est. 51.6 (Prev. 52.0)
  • Aug. 21, 9:45 a.m.: U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI Flash for August est. 53.2 (Prev. 54.5)
• Earnings
  • Aug. 17: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.01
  • Aug. 18: Canaan (CAN), pre-market, -$0.14
  • Aug. 18: BTCS Inc (BTCS), post-market

Token Events

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • Compound is voting to cut rates on deprecated markets to zero (Prop 595) and apply L2 security upgrades (Prop 596). Voting ends Aug. 16.
  • Frax Finance is voting on FIP-450 and FIP-451 to add Gearbox and Royco yield strategies to sfrxUSD through Aug. 17.
  • ShapeShift DAO is voting to move its rFOX staking program from Arbitrum to Ethereum Mainnet on Oct. 1, temporarily doubling revenue-share rewards to 50% for three months to incentivize migration. Voting ends Aug. 18.
  • Rocket Pool is voting to replace Snapshot with RocketDash as its official offchain signaling platform to reduce costs. Voting ends Aug. 19.
  • GnosisDAO is voting to transition Gnosis Chain from a standalone layer 1 into an Ethereum-settled rollup with synchronous mainnet composability, with voting ending on Aug. 19.
  • Decentraland DAO is voting on establishing a clear governance framework and appeal process for platform-wide bans. Voting ends Aug. 19.
  • THORSwap is voting on TIP-19 to migrate THOR tokens 1:1 to METRO on Ethereum mainnet. Voting ends Aug. 22.
• Unlocks
  • Aug. 17: Aster ASTER$0.5989 to unlock 1.8% of its circulating supply worth $28.3 million.
  • Aug. 18: Official Trump (TRUMP) to unlock 4.1% of its circulating supply worth $40 million.
  • Aug. 20: LayerZero ZRO$0.7982 to unlock 4.5% of its circulating supply worth $24.8 million.
  • Aug. 20: Kaito KAITO$0.3395 to unlock 6.2% of its circulating supply worth $11.7 million.
  • Aug. 21: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.7% of its circulating supply worth $23.1 million.
  • Aug. 21: Morpho MORPHO$2.0735 to unlock 3.9% of its circulating supply worth $22.7 million.
  • Aug. 21: Akedo Games (AKE) to unlock 4.9% of its circulating supply worth $14.1 million.
• Token Launches

Binance provided Russian investigators with identity documents and cryptocurrency transaction records later used in a terrorism financing case against Russian IT specialist Yuri Belenkiy, according to an Aug. 17 Reuters investigation.

The records reportedly included Belenkiy’s address, telephone number, date of birth, passport and Bulgarian residency permit. Russian authorities incorporated details of his Binance transactions into evidence supporting the criminal charge.

Belenkiy, 49, is accused of transferring more than $700 in cryptocurrency to organizations connected with Ukraine’s military. He remains detained in Russia while awaiting trial. Neither his lawyer nor Russian authorities responded to Reuters’ questions about Binance’s reported role.

Binance records identified Belenkiy and his transfers

Documents reviewed by Reuters showed that Russia’s Investigative Committee sent Binance a request for Belenkiy’s transaction history. The exchange reportedly responded with a data file confirming that he initiated transfers to a cryptocurrency wallet promoted by exiled Kremlin critic Arkady Babchenko.

Babchenko had published wallet addresses while raising money for medical equipment for Ukrainian soldiers. Russian investigators allege that Belenkiy made payments between January 2023 and March 2024 following those appeals.

The Investigative Committee also accused him of sending funds to a group associated with the Azov Brigade, which operates within Ukraine’s National Guard. Russia designates Azov as a terrorist organization. Other jurisdictions do not necessarily share Moscow’s classification.

Reuters said it reviewed an interim case outline sent to the Russian prosecutor general’s office. The document cited the Binance transaction records among the grounds for bringing terrorism financing charges.

The First Department, a legal support organization assisting defendants in politically sensitive Russian cases, obtained the documents from one of Belenkiy’s relatives. Reuters said it could not independently confirm how the organization received them.

Binance says it followed lawful information requests

Binance declined to discuss the confidential request or Belenkiy’s individual case. The exchange said it routinely cooperates with law enforcement bodies under applicable rules.

“Like other global financial institutions, we cooperate with lawful information requests from law enforcement globally, subject to applicable legal, privacy and regulatory requirements,” Binance said.

The company added that it does not create national laws, determine criminal charges or control how governments use information in court proceedings. Binance said those decisions rest with the relevant authorities.

An official Binance page instructs Russian and Belarusian law enforcement agencies to send requests to [email protected]. Reuters reported that Russian investigators received two replies from that address.

The page says Binance provides information and support as required by law. It does not explain which Binance entity handles Russian requests, which national law governs each disclosure or how the exchange evaluates requests involving possible political prosecutions.

Russia exit did not end law enforcement contact

Binance announced in September 2023 that it would fully exit Russia through its sale to CommEX. The company said operating there was incompatible with its compliance strategy.

Its official announcement said Binance would have no continuing revenue share or repurchase option. The customer migration and closure of Russian services were expected to take up to one year.

Lawyer Mike Bystrov told Reuters that Binance had no obligation to provide the records because it had left Russia. Binance disputed his interpretation but did not say which law required or permitted the disclosure.

Continued communication with investigators does not by itself show that Binance resumed commercial operations in Russia. Companies can retain historical customer records and respond to information requests after leaving a market. The legal basis and limits of that cooperation remain central questions in Belenkiy’s case.

CommEX later stopped operating after acquiring Binance’s local business. As previously reported, the proposed transition became uncertain when Binance’s Russian successor announced its closure.

GDPR protection remains an unresolved question

Belenkiy holds a Russian passport and a Bulgarian residency permit. Bystrov said European Union privacy protections could apply if Belenkiy registered his Binance account as an EU resident.

Under that interpretation, transferring personal information to Russia could require strict safeguards because the European Union does not recognize Russia as providing adequate data protection. The legal assessment would depend on Belenkiy’s account registration, the Binance entity controlling his data and the authority used for the transfer.

Reuters could not establish whether he registered as a Bulgarian resident. His lawyer did not answer that question, and Binance did not identify the entity that processed the request.

The European Data Protection Board declined to comment on the individual case. It said enforcement responsibility rests with national data protection authorities. Bulgaria’s Commission for Personal Data Protection did not respond to Reuters’ questions about whether any rules had been breached.

Bystrov said Binance “may” have had an obligation not to disclose the information under EU law, but no regulator or court has reached that conclusion.

The available documents concern only Belenkiy. Reuters could not determine whether Binance identified other people who donated through the same wallets or whether Russian authorities opened related cases using exchange data.

What happens next in the Binance data case

Belenkiy remains in detention pending trial. Russian authorities have not announced a trial date, while his lawyer has not publicly addressed the accuracy of the transaction evidence or Binance’s disclosure.

The criminal court may examine the transfers and other evidence when proceedings begin. Any GDPR inquiry would be separate and would likely require a European regulator to establish where Belenkiy’s account was registered and which Binance entity controlled his records.

The disclosure also adds to wider scrutiny of Binance’s compliance operations. In related coverage, Binance CEO Richard Teng rejected separate claims about weaknesses in sanctions controls and said the exchange works with law enforcement agencies worldwide.

Bitcoin near $63,500 looks like more summer torpor, capped below $64,000 and holding above the low-$60,000s, but the flow picture underneath has reversed, said Yusuf Fakhro, partner at ARP Digital, in a note to CoinDesk.

US spot ETFs took in more than 14,000 BTC over five days into August 7, he said, the strongest stretch since May, and Q3 has drawn roughly 11,000 BTC of net inflows against 110,000 BTC of outflows in the back half of Q2. The institutional selling that defined the second quarter has flipped to buying.

Spot volumes have fallen to two-and-a-half-year lows, perpetual volumes to three-year lows, and volatility sits near multi-year troughs, Fakhro said.

Fresh demand arriving into the thinnest tape in years, when nobody is watching, is how durable bottoms tend to form. He reads bitcoin’s six months stuck between $60,000 and $80,000, holding near a 50% drawdown rather than grinding lower the way the 2014, 2018 and 2022 bear markets did, as apathy rather than deterioration, with on-chain data starting to show bottoming characteristics as sentiment shifts from panic to caution.

The risk sits on both sides. Bitcoin is as stuck below $64,000 as it is above $62,000, a box rather than a launchpad, and leverage sharpens it. Perpetual open interest has held above 300,000 BTC through the summer, elevated against its average while volumes collapsed, which leaves the market exposed to a sharp liquidation move in either direction.

Gold continues to trade close to multi-month highs following its recent advance, which was supported by the latest US inflation data. July’s CPI broadly matched market expectations, reducing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Lower expectations for further monetary tightening remain supportive for gold, as elevated interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. According to CNBC, some investors have begun taking profits after the rally. Over the coming weeks, expectations surrounding the Fed’s interest-rate path are likely to remain one of the main drivers of the precious metal.

Technical Analysis of Gold

The four-hour XAU/USD chart shows a sustained uptrend that lifted the price towards the red resistance level at $4,450. An ascending trendline developed during the rally, but on 13 August the price broke below it on increased volume. The subsequent decline established a green support area around $4,312.

Following a rebound, gold returned to the dense area of the current market profile and is now trading between the Point of Control (POC) at $4,397 and the lower boundary of the profile at $4,346. If selling pressure builds, the $4,312 support zone could become increasingly significant.

A continuation of the upward move would bring the price into a relatively strong cluster of technical levels. The first obstacles are the POC at $4,397 and the upper boundary of the profile at $4,415. Beyond these levels, attention would shift towards the trend high around $4,450.

The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 52, 53 and 58. The oscillator and fast moving average have moved back into the neutral zone, while the slower moving average is following the same direction.

Key Takeaways

The main driver for gold remains the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. A further decline in expectations for rate hikes could continue to support buyers, while more hawkish signals from the central bank could increase selling pressure as the market undergoes a post-rally correction.

In the short term, gold is also likely to remain sensitive to movements in the US dollar and Treasury yields, both of which can significantly influence demand for the precious metal.

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“Very unlikely.”

That’s how Goldman Sachs described the chances of a September Federal Reserve interest-rate increase, which provides a potential major tailwind for bitcoin BTC$63,611.71, which has traded in a narrow range since early July.

The cryptocurrency is currently priced around $63,500, a 1% gain since midnight UTC. The price has remained firmly locked within the $62,000–$66,000 range that has been in play for over a month.

Goldman lowered the odds in response to a string of soft economic data, specifically retail sales, a key barometer of consumption, and employment figures alongside slowing inflation, Chief Economist Jan Hatzius told clients, according to Bloomberg.

“Under our baseline economic forecasts, the inflation news is more likely to improve further than to deteriorate anew as the year progresses,” Hatzius wrote in a note Sunday. “We still think market pricing for the funds rate is too hawkish.”

Ripple minted 10 million Ripple USD tokens on the XRP Ledger on Aug. 17, completing another large issuance transaction as the stablecoin’s circulating supply reached approximately 1.711 billion.

Public data cited by XRPScan showed that Ripple’s issuer account transferred the tokens to a designated RLUSD destination account. The transaction cost 0.000405 XRP, used two authorized signers and recorded a maximum delivery amount of 10 million RLUSD.

Ripple did not identify the receiving customer or disclose the tokens’ intended use. The transaction confirms issuance, but it does not independently support claims that “institutional demand grows.”

RLUSD mint does not confirm customer demand

A stablecoin mint creates tokens on a blockchain. It does not prove that the tokens immediately entered exchanges, payment channels or institutional portfolios. Newly issued RLUSD can remain in controlled accounts until an approved customer completes a transaction.

The ledger entry also does not establish that $10 million entered the broader crypto market. Ripple Mint allows customers to issue, redeem and transfer RLUSD for settlement, liquidity and treasury operations. Some issuance can therefore reflect inventory management rather than new investment.

Ripple completed another 10 million token mint on Aug. 10. As crypto.news reported, the transaction occurred while RLUSD’s supply remained below earlier summer levels. Ripple did not name the customer behind that issuance either.

A separate post by the BankXRP community account reported that 5 million RLUSD had been burned on Ethereum. Burns remove tokens from circulation and can accompany customer redemptions. Available records do not show whether the burn and the Aug. 17 XRPL mint were connected.