The brokerage expects FPI participation in deliverable contracts and new bullion and metals index options to drive the next leg of growth, with a potential 20-25% increase in options premium. It also sees structural headroom for volume growth as commodity derivatives remain a small share of equity-market trading.

HDFC Securities has set a target price of Rs 3,600 apiece, implying a potential upside of 18.42% from MCX’s August 18 close of Rs 3,040 apiece on the NSE.

Regulatory easing could widen MCX’s participant base

The brokerage highlighted that the FPI consultation paper, already endorsed by the Commodity Derivatives Advisory Committee (CDAC), proposes allowing FPIs in non-agricultural index derivatives and physically deliverable contracts such as gold, silver and base metals, subject to a pre-tender exit condition.

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Sebi has also proposed a compulsory square-off or rollover window from T-3, with residual positions transferred to the designated trading member’s proprietary account at the T-1 closing price. FPIs currently account for only around 3% of MCX volumes, versus 16% at equity exchanges.
The second consultation paper focuses on ease of doing business, including removal of close-to-money option series, greater exchange discretion on position limits and outsourcing of position-limit monitoring to clearing corporations.Sebi has also allowed margin exemptions, except mark-to-market margins, for positions backed by early pay-in of certified goods, while extending the benefit to options. The margin and SGF frameworks are also under review.

“These developments amplify our earlier thesis of sustained options growth — supported by both product innovation and structural market reform — and strengthen our conviction on MCX’s long-term earnings trajectory,” wrote Amit Chandra and Arjun Savla of HDFC Securities in a report.

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FPI access, index options seen driving next leg of growth

According to HDFC Securities, the first-order impact of the proposed changes is a boost to volumes. FPIs account for around 5% of volumes in cash-settled contracts such as crude oil and natural gas. Applying a similar activity level to bullion, the premium ADTV could increase by 15-20%.

Additionally, deeper participation could improve domestic price discovery, tighten spreads and strengthen convergence with international benchmarks.

The second-order impact, according to the analysts, is larger and underappreciated: the scaling of index contracts.

BULLDEX and METLDEX exist but do not contribute to premium today because the institutional buyer of a commodity index product, such as an FPI, has been excluded wherever the underlying is physically settled. Removing that restriction could make index options more attractive as the product is cash-settled.

Bullion and metals contracts offer fresh premium opportunity

Base metals offer a parallel opportunity. Metals contribute only around 1% of premium despite a deep physical ecosystem in copper, zinc, aluminium and lead.

FPI access and index access together could support the formation of a genuine metals vertical in options rather than a futures-only franchise.

The analysts estimate that index and metals contracts together could add around 25% to premium and around 20% to PAT over the next two years.

“This optionality is not in consensus numbers. There could be some cannibalization in bullion futures volume but the rise in options/Index volume will be incrementally positive,” said the analysts.

Lower margins could improve capital efficiency and turnover

The third leg, according to the brokerage, is capital efficiency. Initial margins on MCX derivative contracts — crude at around 30%, gold at around 10% and silver at around 25% — are high and directly affect volumes.

“Any rationalization of margins, together with the early pay-in exemption and a lighter SGF, releases capital at both the member and the client level and should translate into higher turnover velocity,” said the analysts.

Valuation remains attractive versus historical levels

Analysts at HDFC Securities pointed out that MCX is down 13% over the last three months but is up 80% over the last one year and 32% year-to-date. The stock trades at 37x FY28E EPS.

Historically, MCX has traded at around a 15% premium to equity exchanges, reflecting its optionality and materially lower regulatory risk. HDFC Securities sees the case for that premium re-establishing itself.

Rising volumes, a stable technology platform, regulatory tailwinds and the option value attached to a visible pipeline of new products have driven the stock’s outperformance to date, the analysts said, adding that they expect this trend to continue.

The stock has traded at a three-year average one-year forward P/E of around 44x and is currently valued at 45x/37x FY27E/FY28E EPS.

“We assign a core P/E multiple of 45x to June-28E core PAT and add net cash excluding the settlement guarantee fund, which yields a target price of Rs 3,600; the implied multiple on Jun-28E EPS is 43x. We keep FY28/29E EPS unchanged and maintain our Buy rating,” wrote the analysts in the research note.

British sports and custom apparel company Y1 Group has acquired university clothing specialist Redbird Apparel in a seven-figure deal, creating a combined business generating more than £7.5 million in annual revenue.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, brings together two founder-led companies that each began with a few thousand pounds drawn from their founders’ student loans. Both have grown without taking on venture capital, funding expansion through profits. The companies said both businesses grew organically, building long-term relationships across education and grassroots sport.

Y1 Group, which appeared on BBC’s Dragons’ Den, supplies bespoke sportswear, teamwear and custom merchandise. Redbird Apparel sells fashion-led university clothing, rapid-turnaround collections and an e-commerce platform. The companies said the combination creates one of the UK’s leading providers of premium branded apparel for schools, universities, sports clubs and organisations.

Chris Rea, founder of Y1 Group, said the deal reflected a change in how organisations buy branded clothing. “Ten years ago, organisations bought branded merchandise to give away. Today, they invest in apparel that builds identity, loyalty and belonging,” he said.

“People want clothing they’re proud to wear – not promotional stash that ends up at the back of a wardrobe. Redbird recognised that shift early, building an exceptional business around great design and customer experience.”

Rea said the acquisition “puts us firmly on track to achieve our 2030 ambition of £20 million turnover and becoming the UK’s fastest-growing sports apparel provider”.

Redbird was founded by Guy Brown and Laurence Snow while the pair were students at the University of Exeter, each investing £1,000 from their student loans. The company has since fulfilled more than 200,000 orders, supplying clothing and merchandise to universities, sports clubs and student societies across the UK, including Oxford and Cambridge.

The founders said Y1 Group’s Dragons’ Den appearance had been well known among student entrepreneurs on the Exeter campus while they were building Redbird, and that the business that inspired them has now bought them.

Brown said: “The company that first inspired us has now bought us. We love that.

“We were both students at Exeter university. We both started Redbird with just £1000 each from our student loans because we believed university clothing deserved to be better. Students wanted apparel that looked and felt like brands they already wore – not generic merchandise designed around the cheapest possible product.

“We focused on building a sustainable business through great products and happy customers, growing to thousands of orders without taking on venture capital. Joining Y1 gives us the scale, expertise and investment to take that vision even further.”

According to the British Promotional Merchandise Association, the UK branded merchandise market is worth more than £1.2 billion annually. The companies said organisations are increasingly prioritising higher-quality apparel that builds long-term brand affinity over short-lived promotional giveaways.

The combined group will offer bespoke custom apparel, rapid-turnaround fashion collections, e-commerce merchandise platforms and branded accessories.

Y1 Group said the deal, an example of growth through acquiring an established business rather than building from scratch, forms part of its long-term strategy to expand across education, grassroots sport and premium branded apparel.

Amy Ingham

Amy Ingham is a reporter at Business Matters, covering UK business news with a focus on breaking news, business policy, late payments and insolvency. She joined the magazine in 2026 after completing the NCTJ Diploma in Journalism at Harlow College’s journalism school. Her recent reporting includes British Steel’s nationalisation and its impact on SME suppliers, the decline in late payments by large firms, and Insolvency Service director disqualifications. Reach her at aingham@cbmeg.co.uk.

Kaveh Rouhi
Chief Financial & Legal Officer and Member of Managing Board

Sunny welcome, everyone. We very much appreciate that you are taking the time for this investor and analyst call on our first half year 2026 results. This conference call is scheduled for up to 60 minutes and will be recorded. After the management presentation, we will be happy to answer your questions. Today’s presentation is available on our Investor Relations website. The replay will also be available there shortly.

I’m glad to welcome our CEO, Jurgen Reinert, to this call. He joins me today to provide you with the H1 update. First, I will walk you through our first half figures. And then Jurgen will provide you with an update on our transformation program as well as updates on our business, including new solutions to our portfolio, current regulatory developments and how we strengthen customer value with our Large Scale solutions. Finally, we will wrap up with the updated guidance for the 2026 financial year and take time for your questions. I expect the presentation part to last about 30 minutes.

So let’s start. I refer to our disclaimer on Page 2. Let’s move to Page 4, financial highlights for the first half 2026. Well, before we deep dive into the various financial KPIs, let me first say that we are very happy with the results of H1. It clearly shows

Thailand has recently dominated global headlines across multiple fronts—ranging from a devastating mass shooting and subsequent gun control debates to economic headwinds, diplomatic maneuvering, and a bustling sports and business calendar. This summary consolidates the major storylines shaping the country’s current narrative.

Economic Outlook and Trade Relations

Thailand’s economy is showing signs of strain, with second-quarter GDP growth slowing to 1.9%, driven largely by weak domestic consumption and challenges in the energy and travel sectors. Despite this, the government’s 2026 growth forecast midpoint stands at 2.2%, suggesting cautious optimism. Compounding these concerns, Thailand revised its factory gauge amid US transshipment concerns, and finance officials have warned that a THB600 billion deficit exposes vulnerabilities in the nation’s energy sector.

Trade negotiations with the United States remain a focal point, with officials expressing hope for deeper trade ties despite tariff doubts. Thailand has also ruled out any security-tariff trade-off ahead of a visit from US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, signaling a desire to keep economic and security discussions separate. Meanwhile, Bangkok Post reports ongoing negotiations aimed at finalizing a broader US-Thailand trade deal (Bangkok Post).

Gun Violence and Public Safety Crisis

The most urgent issue facing Thailand is its gun violence epidemic, following a horrific school shooting near Bangkok that left at least eight to nine people dead, including a 12-year-old girl who succumbed to her injuries days later. Students described terrifying scenes, with some recounting how they had to climb over school fences to escape the gunman. The tragedy has reignited scrutiny of Thailand’s staggering 10 million privately owned firearms, prompting the government to tighten gun controls in response (BBC).

In Bangkok’s famous gun district, however, traders argue that the government’s crackdown “misses the mark,” claiming that legitimate dealers are being penalized while illegal firearms remain widely accessible. Some dealers have reportedly switched businesses entirely to survive the new regulatory environment. At a temple memorial, grieving parents mourned the loss of their children, with one father publicly pleading for forgiveness, underscoring the emotional toll the tragedy has taken on the community.

Business Expansion and Industrial Investment

Despite economic headwinds, Thailand continues to attract significant business investment. Global Switch announced its entry into the Bangkok data center market, while Delta Electronics’ Thai subsidiary reported resilience despite a recent share slump. Japanese companies operating in Thailand are reportedly preparing to upgrade production bases with new machinery and digital technology, reflecting confidence in the country’s manufacturing sector.

The renewable energy sector is also gaining momentum, with Thailand’s renewable energy pipeline drawing up to US$2.61 billion in investment. A separate solar hospital initiative aims to save US$1.63 million in power costs. In the automotive space, Thailand is reportedly overhauling its auto tax structure following Indonesia’s Toyota investment bid, while Toyota itself has expressed confidence in maintaining its Thai production base despite regional competition.

Diplomatic and Regional Developments

Thailand’s foreign policy has been active on multiple fronts. Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul stated that Thailand “will not choose sides” in broader geopolitical rivalries but must keep its options open, a stance reinforced by his visit to Sydney to advance the Thailand-Australia strategic partnership. Thailand has also positioned itself as neutral in the US-China AI race, reflecting its broader balancing act between major powers.

Regional tensions persist as well, with Thailand rejecting Cambodia’s “ASEAN police” accusation, and reports emerging of the US deepening police partnerships across Southeast Asia to counter Chinese influence. On the humanitarian front, Human Rights Watch raised concerns over the potential deportation of ethnic Karen refugees to Myanmar, highlighting ongoing human rights challenges along Thailand’s borders.

Sports and Cultural Highlights

Thailand’s sporting scene has been particularly active, especially in the ASEAN Championship, where the national football team faces Singapore in a highly anticipated semifinal clash. Coach Anthony Hudson has downplayed a reported confrontation with his Singaporean counterpart while balancing a personal friendship with Singaporean star Ilhan Fandi. Beyond football, Thailand is set to host the opening round of the 2027 MotoGP season, and boxer Nabil Anane has announced his bid to represent Thailand at the LA28 Olympics.

Culturally, Thailand continues to promote its culinary heritage through initiatives like “Soul of Thai Cuisine,” while environmental efforts include stepped-up dugong protection following 209 strandings over the past decade. A newly discovered “dragon” species in Thailand’s mountain forests also made headlines, adding to the country’s rich biodiversity narrative.

Tourism, Infrastructure, and Emerging Technology

Tourism infrastructure is receiving renewed attention, with Suvarnabhumi Airport upgrades accelerating ahead of peak season. Advanced air mobility is also emerging as a priority, with Eve Air Mobility and RV Connex signing an MOU to explore urban air mobility solutions, alongside broader discussions on airspace safety and infrastructure.

On the technology front, industrial AI is reportedly powering a significant shift in Thai manufacturing, while businesses are being urged to monitor three key technology trends shaping the future. These developments, paired with Thailand’s push into AI neutrality and digital transformation, suggest a nation actively repositioning itself within the global technology landscape.

Conclusion

Thailand currently stands at a complex crossroads—grappling with the aftermath of tragedy while simultaneously pursuing economic resilience, diplomatic balance, and technological advancement. As the country navigates these intertwined challenges, its ability to reform gun laws, stabilize trade relations, and sustain business investment will likely define its trajectory in the months ahead.

Source : Google News – Search