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Kalshi traders say bitcoin rally won’t go much higher by end of 2026

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Kalshi traders say bitcoin rally won’t go much higher by end of 2026

A view of a Bitcoin ATM at Northgate Mall on Feb. 5, 2026, in San Rafael, California.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

Bitcoin’s more than 20% rally this week has sent the cryptocurrency to heights it hasn’t seen since May, but traders on prediction market platform Kalshi see it ending 2026 near current levels.

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Speculators estimate that bitcoin’s price at the end of 2026 will be around $75,000, based on an average of contracts on the platform. 

The contracts on Kalshi ask traders to place “yes” and “no” trades on whether the cryptocurrency will trade within various $5,000 ranges at midnight on Jan. 1, 2027. Contracts are resolved using bitcoin price data from CF Benchmarks.

Bitcoin’s surge this week has been powered by two key catalysts: an intervention by the U.S. Treasury to ease a sell-off in the bond market — in turn, relieving pressure on risk assets — and an event at the White House where President Donald Trump, crypto executives and regulators pushed for Congress to approve the market structure Clarity Act proposal.

The outlook for where bitcoin will end the year has improved since the flagship crypto’s rally. Before Wednesday, Kalshi traders saw it most likely that bitcoin would end the year around $66,000. 

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However, speculators’ latest forecast would represent a slight decline from the cryptocurrency’s current trading levels. Bitcoin was last trading above $77,000. 

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

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Treasury’s ‘Not-QE’ approach boosts Bitcoin as policy expectations shift

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Crypto Breaking News

Digital-asset markets turned sharply risk-on this week, buoyed by a fresh dose of liquidity policy from Washington—framed not as quantitative easing, but as expanded Treasury buybacks in the long-dated bond segment. Bitcoin rose more than 23% toward the $79,000 area and Ether pushed above $2,400 as the market digested the implications for rates, dollar liquidity, and broader risk appetite.

The move has also become a catalyst for business strategy across crypto. Standard Chartered reiterated a bullish year-end outlook for Bitcoin, while Metaplanet extended its Bitcoin treasury approach into the US through a deal to take control of a Nasdaq-listed company. In parallel, Cypherpunk Technologies broadened its mining operations into Zcash, and regulators signaled further attention on how “compute” assets could be packaged into futures markets.

Key takeaways

  • US Treasury action to at least double long-dated bond buybacks helped lift Bitcoin and Ether, reinforcing the “liquidity matters” narrative for risk assets.
  • Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick pointed to a key Bitcoin level around $65,500, arguing a break could confirm a cycle low—conditional on holding above that threshold.
  • Metaplanet will inject 2,100 BTC into a renamed US-listed entity, Superplanet, as part of a treasury strategy designed to create separate US and Japan funding pathways.
  • Cypherpunk Technologies’ Zcash mining expansion is already operational and is positioned to control about 18% of Zcash network hashrate, while profitability depends on ZEC price and network difficulty.
  • The CFTC is seeking public input on AI compute futures, while CME has outlined a potential Oct. 5 launch for new compute-related contracts pending approvals.

Treasury buybacks drive a “not-QE” rally in Bitcoin

Standard Chartered’s optimism was anchored to the US Treasury’s decision to expand long-end bond buybacks. According to Cointelegraph’s earlier reporting on the market reaction, Geoff Kendrick said Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by year-end as these purchases increase liquidity—an action he described as “exactly the type of thing Bitcoin loves.”

The analyst highlighted Bitcoin’s critical technical zone around $65,500. In Kendrick’s framing, a sustained move above that level could validate that the cycle low is already in. He linked this technical threshold to the broader backdrop: falling long-dated yields after the Treasury announcement coincided with Bitcoin’s immediate response, with the asset climbing more than 6% toward nearly $69,000, per CoinMarketCap.

Just as important is timing and conditionality. The expanded buyback window runs from Sept. 9 through Nov. 4. Kendrick’s bullish thesis still depends on BTC holding above $65,500; without that, he argues, investors cannot credibly treat the cycle low as confirmed. For traders, this turns a macro headline into a concrete monitoring point: not the buybacks alone, but whether price action respects the technical level identified by Standard Chartered.

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Metaplanet brings its Bitcoin treasury play to the US via Superplanet

While liquidity policy influenced the public markets, corporate balance-sheet decisions reflected a separate but related belief: that Bitcoin exposure is worth structuring into operating and funding plans. Metaplanet announced it plans to take a controlling stake in Nasdaq-listed Super League Enterprise—an arrangement intended to extend its Bitcoin treasury strategy into US markets.

Under the terms described in Cointelegraph coverage of the transaction, Metaplanet will contribute 2,100 BTC and $2.5 million in cash to the company, which will be renamed Superplanet. The BTC amount is reportedly worth roughly $145 million and represents less than 5% of Metaplanet’s existing 43,000 BTC holdings, with the contribution coming from treasury rather than new purchases.

Management said the structure is designed to open two different capital-raising channels: Superplanet for US investors and Metaplanet for shareholders in Japan. In the market, the announcement translated into immediate momentum—shares of Super League reportedly surged over 50% following the news.

As with any cross-market corporate move, execution risk remains. The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter, subject to shareholder approval and customary closing conditions. For observers, the key watch item is whether the US-listed vehicle can reliably monetize or expand its funding base while maintaining the Bitcoin exposure that anchors the strategy.

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Cypherpunk turns toward Zcash mining with high hashrate exposure

Crypto business expansion didn’t stop at treasury strategies. Cypherpunk Technologies is also scaling into proof-of-work diversification by launching a Zcash mining fleet after acquiring equipment from Winklevoss Capital in a $33.33 million equity deal.

Based on the details reported by Cointelegraph, Cypherpunk’s operation is already online at US facilities and is producing about 4.2 GSol/s. That level is described as roughly 18% of Zcash’s current hashrate—meaning the company’s influence on network mining capacity is meaningful, even if Zcash remains decentralized through a broader set of miners.

The company also holds 323,394 ZEC, roughly 1.9% of circulating supply, with a stated target of 5% ownership. While those holdings can support operational strategy, Cypherpunk’s economics are ultimately sensitive to variables outside its control: ZEC’s price, changes in network hashrate, mining difficulty, and operating costs.

The timing matters. Cointelegraph noted ZEC had rallied sharply—rising more than 1,300% over 12 months before later correcting—highlighting the cyclicality that can make mining profitability hard to forecast. On the protocol side, Zcash implemented its Ironwood network upgrade on July 28, replacing the Orchard pool after a flaw that could have allowed counterfeit ZEC creation; importantly, Cointelegraph’s earlier report states no exploitation was detected.

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For investors, the core question is whether Cypherpunk’s scale—especially the current hashrate share—translates into durable cash flow in a market where difficulty can rise and token prices can swing. For Zcash network participants, higher industrial involvement raises the practical need to monitor how operational concentration evolves over time.

CFTC input sought on AI compute futures as CME prepares for launch

Beyond traditional crypto assets, regulators are examining how new “real-world” infrastructure exposures might be tradable. The CFTC has opened a comment process regarding futures contracts tied to AI computing capacity, according to Bloomberg reporting cited by Cointelegraph.

Bloomberg reported Monday that the regulator sent a request for comment to the White House Office of Management and Budget. CME Group, meanwhile, previously announced plans to launch two compute futures contracts on Oct. 5, pending regulatory approval, with Silicon Data providing benchmarks. Estimates cited in the same coverage place AI infrastructure spending at roughly 2% to 2.5% of US GDP this year, underscoring the scale regulators appear to be watching.

This matters for market structure because “compute” is not yet a standardized asset class. If futures tied to compute capacity gain traction, they could offer a new hedging tool for companies whose costs depend on data center access and GPU-like capacity—potentially reducing uncertainty for participants as AI infrastructure spending continues.

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However, the regulatory pathway is not instantaneous. Once the White House review is complete, the CFTC is expected to open a comment period—typically lasting 30 or 60 days, Bloomberg said. That creates a timeline constraint for any compute products from CME Group and other exchanges, such as Intercontinental Exchange, which remain subject to approval.

What to watch next is whether the “liquidity without QE” narrative sustains through the Sept. 9 to Nov. 4 buyback window—especially if Bitcoin remains above the $65,500 level flagged by Standard Chartered. At the same time, investors should track how corporate Bitcoin strategies execute across borders and whether mining economics hold steady as network difficulty and ZEC prices change. On the market-innovation front, the CFTC’s compute-futures comment process could determine how quickly hedging around AI infrastructure costs becomes tradable.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Brian Armstrong: Crypto Regulatory Clarity Coming by Mid-September

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Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong expects US crypto regulation to move forward by mid-September, either through a Senate vote or new SEC and CFTC rules.

His comments came after a White House meeting with President Donald Trump and crypto executives, as lawmakers prepare to revisit the CLARITY Act.

Armstrong Lays Out Two Paths to Clarity

Armstrong posted on X on August 21 that “clarity is coming either way,” pointing to September 15 and September 16 as possible turning points. He expects more than 60 Senate votes for the CLARITY Act on September 15, or new rules from the CFTC and SEC the following day.

His post quoted CFTC Chairman Mike Selig, who had written hours earlier that his agency would not wait indefinitely on Congress if the CLARITY Act keeps stalling over what he called Democratic obstruction.

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Selig said in a video shared with his post that “the CFTC will utilize its existing authorities to begin establishing a regime” for crypto markets, adding that the plan could let both registered firms and non-registered exchanges apply for a new designation permitting leveraged and margin crypto trading under CFTC oversight.

He also said he had directed staff to work with developers of on-chain finance protocols so they can offer their products legally in the US, and warned that if Democrats do not back a bipartisan version of CLARITY, he would move the CFTC’s own rules forward instead.

Armstrong, after Wednesday’s meeting with Trump and crypto executives, called the September 15 vote the thing that would make the administration’s crypto progress durable for decades to come. He credited the administration for the GENIUS Act, the strategic Bitcoin reserve, and, just days earlier, a new SEC proposal that would let crypto companies raise up to $5 million over four years or $75 million within 12 months. That new capital-raising proposal shows what agency-led rules might look like if the bill stalls again.

The Coinbase chief also pointed to hundreds of pages of changes contributed by Democratic senators, pushing back on the idea that support for the bill breaks cleanly along party lines.

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Why the Senate Math Is Tight

Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed for cloture on CLARITY before the August recess, setting the September 15 vote in motion, but the bill still needs 60 votes. Republicans hold 53 seats, so at least seven Democrats or independents have to join them.

Galaxy Research recently cut its odds of passage this year from 50% to 30%, citing unresolved fights over ethics provisions, illicit finance rules, and language from the Senate Agriculture Committee.

Meanwhile, a bipartisan proposal from Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego, which would tighten restrictions on public officials issuing their own cryptocurrencies and give state attorneys general a bigger enforcement role, has stalled after the White House did not respond to it in time.

The post Brian Armstrong: Crypto Regulatory Clarity Coming by Mid-September appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Pass the Clarity Act

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Pass the Clarity Act


Reopening a settled provision four weeks before a vote would sink the bill, argues Summer Mersinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association.

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Morgan Stanley Put Ethereum Yield in an ETP. Who Carries the Risk?

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Morgan Stanley Put Ethereum Yield in an ETP. Who Carries the Risk?

An investor can sell a share in Morgan Stanley’s new Ethereum Trust during market hours. The trust may need weeks, or months during a stressed queue, to free some of the Ether (ETH) behind it.

Why such a large timing gap? The crypto exchange-traded product, or ETP, holds ETH behind shares that trade on NYSE Arca. Under normal market conditions, 50% to 80% of that ETH is expected to sit in Ethereum’s validator system, earning rewards while exposed to protocol penalties and withdrawal delays. 

Morgan Stanley launched the trust, ticker MSSE, on July 28 alongside a Solana product. Its annual sponsor fee is 0.14%. Figment, Galaxy Blockchain Infrastructure and Coinbase Canada operate as staking providers. The custodians and staking providers are expected to receive 5% of gross staking rewards, leaving 95% in the trust.

The wrapper makes the investment easier to buy and hold. It also converts validator performance, key security and Ethereum’s withdrawal mechanics into fund-level financial risks. The useful question is therefore wider than the quoted APR. Which balance sheet stands between a protocol loss and the shareholder?

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There is a legal distinction worth keeping in view. The offering is registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission under the Securities Act of 1933. The trust is not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, and its investors do not receive the protections attached to funds governed by that law. “ETP” is the more precise label.

BeInCrypto spoke with Eva Lawrence, Head of Revenue at Figment; Nitin Gaur, Head of Institutions at Nethermind; Benjamin Sarquis Peillard, Founder and CEO of Cap; and Edward Wu, Head of BloFin Research, about how the risk moves through the structure.

When a Validator Error Hits the Share Price

Ethereum pays validators for checking the network and following its rules. It can destroy part of their staked Ether and force them out after certain violations, including signing conflicting messages. A correlation penalty raises the cost when many validators are slashed around the same period. One faulty process repeated across a large validator fleet can therefore be more damaging than a series of isolated mistakes.

Slashing remains rare compared with the size of Ethereum’s validator set. Its distribution through time still matters because the largest spikes have tended to come from shared operational failures.

Figure 1. Ethereum slashing events recorded by month, January 2021–February 2026. Source: Rated Network

For an ETP investor, the protocol does not send a separate bill. The trust holds less Ether and its net asset value reflects the loss. Eva Lawrence, Head of Revenue at Figment, explains:

“In an ETP structure, slashing penalties (for misbehavior, downtime or misconfiguring) would hit the fund’s asset base and reduce NAV. Investors see this as a share price impact rather than a direct asset loss. But slashing on institutional-grade validators is rare and for a provider like Figment, we have never had a double signing slashing event on Ethereum. The best staking providers also carry slashing coverage.”

Morgan Stanley’s custody arrangement limits one obvious danger. Its staking providers receive validator keys used to perform validation duties. The custodians retain the private keys that control the trust’s assets and withdrawal addresses. A validator operator cannot transfer the principal to another wallet.

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That protection does not settle the economic liability. The trust can retain ownership of its ETH and still lose assets through a penalty caused by the operator. Its prospectus says compensation may be subject to conditions, exclusions and evidentiary requirements. It may exclude protocol-wide events or software failures and may arrive late, cover only part of the loss or never become available.

Nitin Gaur, Head of Institutions at Nethermind, puts the issue in financial terms:

“A staking ETP is a yield product inside a fund vehicle sitting on an operational risk the fund documents may not have priced. The questions worth asking are not about the protocol: who absorbs a slashing event, is the indemnity backed by a balance sheet that could pay it, and what happens when the exit queue is longer than the settlement cycle.”

The result is a loss waterfall. Protocol code acts first. The trust then looks to the relevant provider agreement, its liability limits and any available coverage. NAV carries whatever remains.

The Provider’s Balance Sheet Becomes Part of the Product

Staking providers are often assessed like technology vendors: uptime, security controls and commission rates. An ETP makes their contractual liability and financial capacity part of the investment structure.

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Benjamin Sarquis Peillard, Founder and CEO of Cap, said:

“Asset managers should judge providers on incident history, key management architecture, and what the legal contract says happens in the worst case: who gets made whole first and who’s left holding the bag for the loss. These asset managers should be underwriting the provider almost like any other critical piece of financial infrastructure. A high advertised staking yield means very little if the provider doesn’t have the operational controls, security architecture, and financial capacity to manage an incident when something goes wrong.”

The same scrutiny applies to diversification. Three provider names do not necessarily create three independent risk pools. They may run the same validator client, depend on the same cloud region or use similar key-management processes.

Lawrence said:

“When all validators for a provider run on the same cloud region or software stack, a single outage affects the full position simultaneously. Operators with concentrated infrastructure can fail synchronously, while providers with multi-cloud, multi-geography architecture remain operational. Note that diversifying across multiple providers does not guarantee resiliency: if those providers rely on the same cloud vendors, client software, or geographic regions, they share the same failure points.”

This turns provider selection into a correlation exercise. An asset manager needs to map the underlying client software and hosting footprint, then test how key-management and anti-slashing systems behave during maintenance or failover.

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Gaur argues that the apparent provider count can obscure a common dependency:

“Concentration, meaning their share of network stake and whether their infrastructure correlates with everyone else’s: if your provider and half the network sit in the same cloud region running the same client, you do not have independent risks, you have one. Key management and anti-slashing architecture, and whether your stake is segregated or commingled.”

The September 2025 SSV Labs post-mortem shows how this can happen. Two incidents affected one validator and then a cluster of 39. SSV said its protocol had not been compromised. The larger event came from a maintenance mistake that ran the same validator keys simultaneously in two infrastructures. The code behaved as designed; duplicated operations created the loss.

A Liquid Share Sits over a Withdrawal Queue

Staking changes the liquidity profile of the asset held by the trust. Ethereum limits how many validators can enter or leave over a given period. That protects network stability and prevents a large set of validators from moving at once.

For a fund, the constraint appears on both sides of the trade. Ether waiting to enter the validator set earns no staking rewards. Ether waiting to exit cannot be sold to meet redemptions. Morgan Stanley’s prospectus says unstaking may take days in quiet conditions and multiple weeks or months when exit demand rises.

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The queue can move sharply. On July 6, the prospectus recorded roughly 2.71 million ETH waiting to enter and an estimated activation delay of 47 days. On August 21, Rated Network showed an activation queue of about 38 days, an exit queue below one hour and a withdrawal queue close to ten days. A liquidity policy built around one observation can age quickly.

Lawrence describes the issuer-level risk as follows:

“Staking may require assets to be locked for a period of time and in the case of Ethereum, queued for exit during an “unbonding” period, creating potential liquidity mismatches, particularly if redemptions exceed available unstaked assets.”

The trust manages that mismatch by leaving part of its ETH unstaked. More liquidity gives it a larger pool for redemptions. It also reduces the share of the portfolio earning rewards. The expected 50% to 80% staking range is therefore one of the product’s most important economic variables.

The Math Behind the 95% Reward Pass-Through

Morgan Stanley’s 0.14% sponsor fee sits below several large US crypto ETPs. The existing comparison is straightforward: investors can see the annual fee charged against NAV.

Figure 2. Morgan Stanley’s 14-basis-point launch fees compared with selected US crypto ETPs. Sources: Morgan Stanley, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, Bitwise and BlackRock.

The staking charge uses another denominator. Custodians and staking providers receive 5% of gross staking rewards. They do not receive 5% of the trust’s assets. The trust retains 95% of rewards earned on the portion of ETH that is actually staked.

So, a 3% protocol yield does not create 3% of gross income across the trust when only 50% to 80% of its Ether is working. It creates a gross portfolio yield of 1.5% to 2.4% before the reward charge and sponsor fee.

The current network rate offers a useful illustration. Rated Network showed a 2.81% Ethereum network APR on August 21. Rounding that to 2.8%, a 50% staking allocation would produce gross rewards equal to 1.4% of NAV.

After the 5% staking charge and 0.14% sponsor fee, the estimated contribution falls to about 1.19%. At an 80% allocation, the equivalent estimate is about 1.99%.

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Figure 3. Estimated annual staking contribution to NAV across Morgan Stanley’s planned 50%–80% staking range.

These figures are illustrations, not forecasts. They assume a constant protocol APR and exclude activation delays, penalties, taxes and extraordinary expenses. They show why “95% of rewards” is incomplete without the staking ratio and the fixed fee.

The fixed sponsor fee also takes a larger share of income as protocol rewards fall. Scale matters because the issuer still has to pay for custody, monitoring and operational controls when the yield pool shrinks.

Sarquis Peillard sees an important commercial test here:

“A fee like a 0.14%-with-95%-pass-through only works at scale when the economics of the fee make sense; a smaller issuer copying that fee without the volume to cover secure custody and slashing coverage should raise some suspicion. That’s the part of the economics investors should pay attention to. Low fees and high reward pass-through look attractive, but staking still requires secure infrastructure, custody, monitoring, and risk management. If the economics don’t appear to pay for those things, investors should be asking what is actually being sacrificed to make the numbers work.”

Who Pays When Staking Goes Wrong?

Disclosure tells investors where a loss may land. A funded protection mechanism changes the order in which capital absorbs it.

Edward Wu, Head of BloFin Research, argues that regulated staking products could create a first-loss layer between provider failure and investor capital:

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“Asset managers could require providers to post funded bonds, maintain dedicated slashing reserves, or contribute a portion of staking revenue to a pooled protection fund. These mechanisms would give regulated products a more explicit loss-absorption layer and reduce the immediate impact of smaller staking penalties on investors.”

That would make the promise measurable. A reserve has a disclosed size. A funded bond can be compared with the value at risk. Contractual compensation without ring-fenced capital depends on exclusions, the provider’s solvency and the time required to enforce a claim.

Legal design can fail independently of validator performance. In February 2023, Kraken agreed to end its US staking-as-a-service programme and pay $30 million to settle SEC charges. Its validators did not need to malfunction for the product to become unworkable. Regulatory treatment changed the business around them.

Staking ETPs give investors a listed share and familiar brokerage settlement. Their financial architecture sits in the staking ratio, exit policy, provider agreements and the balance sheets standing behind compensation promises. The APR can be compared in seconds. The loss waterfall still has to be read line by line.

The post Morgan Stanley Put Ethereum Yield in an ETP. Who Carries the Risk? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Treasury ‘Not-QE’ Fuels Bitcoin Rally

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Treasury ‘Not-QE’ Fuels Bitcoin Rally

Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market got a taste of “not-QE” this week — and liked it.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) jumped more than 23% toward $79,000 and Ether’s price crossed $2,400 after the US Treasury moved to double certain long-dated bond buybacks, adding fuel to an increasingly important question for digital asset markets. If Washington keeps finding new ways to support liquidity without technically embarking on quantitative easing, could Bitcoin and other risk assets become some of the biggest beneficiaries?

That question is already shaping business decisions across crypto. Standard Chartered sees Bitcoin heading toward $100,000, Metaplanet is taking its Bitcoin treasury strategy to the US and Cypherpunk Technologies is making a $33 million bet on Zcash mining.

Standard Chartered analyst sees Bitcoin reaching $100,000 as Treasury buybacks expand

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick said Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by year-end as the US Treasury doubles long-end bond buybacks, a move he described as “exactly the type of thing Bitcoin loves.”

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Kendrick said in a client note that BTC’s key technical level is $65,500 and breaking above it could confirm the cycle low is in. He cited Wednesday’s Treasury plan to at least double buyback operations for 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year coupons. Long-dated yields fell, and Bitcoin’s price immediately climbed more than 6% to nearly $69,000, its highest since early June, per CoinMarketCap.

The expanded program runs Sept. 9 through Nov. 4. Kendrick argues Bitcoin tends to benefit from government liquidity interventions and its fixed supply resists monetary debasement. The call still depends on BTC holding above $65,500. Without that, the cycle low cannot be confirmed.

Metaplanet expands Bitcoin treasury strategy to US with Super League deal

Metaplanet plans to take a controlling stake in Nasdaq-listed Super League Enterprise, expanding its Bitcoin treasury strategy to the US.

The Tokyo firm will contribute 2,100 BTC and $2.5 million in cash to Super League, which will be renamed Superplanet. That BTC, worth roughly $145 million, is under 5% of Metaplanet’s 43,000 holdings and comes from existing treasury, not new purchases. CEO Simon Gerovich said the structure gives two capital-raising avenues: Superplanet in US markets and Metaplanet in Japan. Shares of Super League surged over 50% on the news.

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The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter, subject to shareholder approval and customary conditions. 

Cypherpunk launches Zcash mining fleet controlling 18% of network hashrate

Cypherpunk Technologies is expanding into Zcash (ZEC) mining after acquiring a fleet from Winklevoss Capital in a $33.33 million equity deal, giving the publicly traded firm roughly 18% of the network’s hashrate.

The mining operation is already online at US facilities, producing about 4.2 GSol/s, or roughly 18% of Zcash’s current hashrate. Cypherpunk also holds 323,394 ZEC, about 1.9% of circulating supply, and targets 5% ownership. It has pitched Zcash mining as offering more attractive economics than Bitcoin mining or AI data center workloads.

However, those economics depend heavily on ZEC’s price, network hashrate, mining difficulty, and operating costs. The push follows a rally that saw the price of ZEC rise more than 1,300% over 12 months, though it has since corrected. The network implemented its Ironwood upgrade on July 28 to replace the Orchard pool after a flaw that could have allowed counterfeit ZEC creation, though no exploitation was ever detected.

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CFTC seeks comment on AI compute futures as CME eyes October launch

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is seeking public comment on futures contracts tied to AI computing capacity, a step that could shape an emerging market for trading and hedging the cost of computing power.

Bloomberg reported Monday that the regulator sent a request for comment to the White House Office of Management and Budget. CME Group announced last week it plans to launch two compute futures contracts on Oct. 5, pending regulatory approval, with Silicon Data providing the benchmarks. Estimates from TD Lombard, Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater Associates put AI infrastructure spending at roughly 2% to 2.5% of US GDP this year.

The review could complicate the timeline for planned compute products from CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, which remain subject to regulatory approval. Once the White House review is complete, the CFTC is expected to open a comment period, typically lasting 30 or 60 days, according to Bloomberg.

Crypto Biz is your weekly pulse on the business behind blockchain and crypto, delivered directly to your inbox every Thursday.

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Paul Ryan Foundation and Digital Asset Pilot Plan State Benefits in Canton

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Crypto Breaking News

Digital Asset, the company behind the Canton Network, is partnering with the American Idea Foundation—co-founded by former US House Speaker Paul Ryan—to pilot a blockchain-based program for administering state benefits in the United States. The initiative, branded RISE, is designed to modernize how eligibility rules and payment logic are applied when household circumstances change.

According to the announcement, the pilot is planned to launch in the first quarter of 2027 and would bundle multiple benefits into monthly or twice-monthly payments. It would also incorporate spending rules for categories such as food, child care, and cash, while giving participating agencies visibility into payment status, balances, spending, and compliance information via Canton.

Key takeaways

  • RISE aims to use Canton to automate benefit distribution while adjusting support as household income changes.
  • The system would group multiple benefits into periodic payments and apply spending constraints across specific categories.
  • Participating agencies could track payments, balances, spending, and compliance data through Canton, with access limited for sensitive information.
  • The pilot is not yet finalized: Digital Asset and the American Idea Foundation said it remains subject to federal approval, and the states and benefit programs were not disclosed.
  • Canton’s government-linked use cases are expanding beyond finance toward real-world public service delivery.

RISE: automating benefit logic on a blockchain network

The proposed RISE program centers on how benefit rules can be translated into automated systems that respond to real-time changes in a household’s finances. Digital Asset said Canton would coordinate the rules, permissions, and transactions needed to distribute benefits—while restricting access to sensitive data.

In practice, that means the program is intended to handle more than payment issuance. The plan calls for automatic adjustment of benefit levels as household income changes, potentially reducing overpayments or underpayments that can trigger penalties for recipients when circumstances improve.

Ryan said the pilot’s purpose is to help demonstrate what a “modern safety net” could look like by addressing fragmentation across benefits and by measuring results more rigorously.

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By combining fragmented benefits, reducing penalties as families earn more, and rigorously measuring results, these pilots can help show what a modern safety net should look like.

What isn’t decided yet: states, programs, and federal sign-off

While the announcement outlines how RISE would work at a systems level, it did not name which US states would participate. It also did not specify which benefit programs would be included or how the category-based spending rules would map to existing administration processes.

Both Digital Asset and the American Idea Foundation emphasized that the pilot remains subject to federal approval. That qualifier matters because public benefits programs in the US are governed by layered federal and state requirements, and any attempt to shift how benefits are calculated, disbursed, or constrained typically depends on regulatory clearance.

For stakeholders watching the project, the key question will be what approvals ultimately permit—particularly around data access controls, auditing requirements, and how “compliance data” would be generated and shared among agencies.

Canton’s pivot toward public-sector and settlement use cases

RISE adds a new government-linked application layer to Canton’s broader track record. Recent Canton activity has been heavily associated with institutional finance, including projects involving government securities. Still, the network has been moving into other public-facing and regulated settings.

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In April, Japan Securities Clearing Corporation (JSCC), Mizuho, Nomura, and Digital Asset launched a proof of concept using Canton to test Japanese government bonds as digital collateral. The project included support under Japan’s Financial Services Agency Payment Innovation Project and explored use cases such as real-time, cross-border transactions.

Later in July, Canton was used to settle a tokenized US Treasury trade involving Franklin Templeton and Virtu Financial. In that instance, Tradeweb handled execution and price discovery, with the Treasury changing hands against USDCx in real time—an approach Tradeweb described as an industry first. The details reinforce that Canton’s architecture has been aimed at structured settlement workflows, not just token transfers.

RISE would extend those capabilities into daily life for beneficiaries by turning policy and compliance logic into operational rules executed through the network—an application that, if implemented, could test whether the same settlement-grade determinism can be applied to welfare administration at scale.

The network’s ecosystem: Canton Coin and institutional traction

Canton Coin (CC), the network’s native asset used to pay fees for transactions through Canton’s Global Synchronizer, is currently positioned as a market-visible indicator of activity within the ecosystem. CoinGecko data cited in the announcement places CC’s market capitalization at about $4.1 billion, ranking it 23rd among cryptocurrencies. The same data indicated CC is up around 10% over the past week.

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Beyond price, the more consequential element for investors is how Canton continues to convert partnerships into production-grade workflows. The RISE proposal is still early—states and programs have not been selected and federal approval is required—but it signals an intent to broaden Canton’s role from financial infrastructure toward regulated public administration.

Readers should watch next for two things: which states and benefit programs (if any) are selected for RISE, and what conditions federal regulators impose before the pilot can proceed. Even if the timeline targets early 2027, the approvals—and the data governance model around compliance and sensitive information—will likely determine whether the project can move from concept to a deployable system.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin Miners Had a $2 Billion Ghost Seller, Citadel Just Cleared It

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Bitcoin miner book Citadel just cleared.

Bitcoin miner stocks have spent three weeks trading with a seller sitting on top of them. On Friday, Ken Griffin said that seller is nearly finished.

Griffin told Citadel clients the firm has unwound more than 80% of the risk it absorbed from Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness portfolio. The filings behind that book show miner bets that grew in dollars while shrinking to under 10% of the portfolio. The fund was buying miners fast and memory chips faster.

The Seller Nobody Was Watching

Situational Awareness is the artificial intelligence (AI) fund run by former OpenAI researcher Aschenbrenner. It gained 439% in the first half of 2026. Then July arrived.

Leveraged four to one, the fund lost 67% in a single month and handed roughly $10 billion of stock to Citadel on July 30, as BeInCrypto reported when it lost its stock book.

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Its last filing before that sale is the one that matters. The 13F, a quarterly holdings report large investors must file with regulators, covered the period to June 30 and was lodged on August 14. It listed a $20.24 billion portfolio across just 26 positions.

Bitcoin miners made up $1.99 billion of it. Core Scientific was the biggest at $666 million. Riot Platforms held $468 million, IREN $433 million and CleanSpark $179 million. A fresh $152 million stake sat in Keel Infrastructure, the company Bitfarms became after rebranding in April.

Bitcoin miner book Citadel just cleared.
Bitcoin miner book Citadel just cleared

Those positions grew fast. Miner exposure climbed 79% in a single quarter. Riot alone jumped 229%.

Why the Whole Thing Broke

Aschenbrenner was never buying Bitcoin (BTC). He was buying megawatts. Miners already owned grid capacity, and AI data centers needed it.

The real danger sat elsewhere. In March, the fund held $8.5 billion of put options against Nvidia, Oracle, Broadcom and other AI names. Those were its hedges.

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By June 30, they had almost entirely gone. In their place stood $12.5 billion of outright long bets. Sandisk and Micron alone accounted for 55.6% of the whole book.

So the fund stopped hedging and doubled down instead. When chip stocks slid in July, nothing cushioned the fall. Miners were collateral damage in a memory-chip trade.

Griffin Cleared It in Three Weeks

Citadel moved quickly. It pushed through nearly 100 block trades worth more than $4 billion, including the largest intraday blocks of the year in 10 separate names.

“Our ability to distribute this risk was central to our investment thesis,” Reuters reported, citing Ken Griffin in the letter.

Citadel bought the portfolio at a discount, and three Citadel funds gained sharply afterward.

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What Changes for Miner Holders

A large seller with no reason to care about price is now mostly out. That hands the sector back to its own numbers, from hosting deals like Riot’s Anthropic lease to heavy quarterly mining losses.

The tape is helping too. Bitcoin’s 7% daily gain lifted BTC to about $77,309 and its market value to roughly $1.55 trillion.

Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

One question remains. Aschenbrenner loaded up on miners because he believed hashrate was really a claim on power. Citadel has now sold most of it. Whoever bought those blocks made the same bet, quietly, at a lower price.

The post Bitcoin Miners Had a $2 Billion Ghost Seller, Citadel Just Cleared It appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Gold Price Hits 3-Month High Amid Bond Market Stress: Is $5,000 Next?

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16% of Fund Managers now believe Gold is undervalued, the most since March 2023. Source: Bank of America/@Barchart

Gold surged past $4,600 per ounce on Friday, touching its highest level in three months and putting the metal on track for a nearly 5% weekly gain.

A weaker dollar and fresh debt concerns are driving investors toward safety.

What is Driving the Gold Rally?

Spot gold traded between $4,580 and $4,600 on Friday, while futures approached $4,650, according to TradingView data. The rally stems from two converging forces:

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  • A weaker US dollar, renewed concern over soaring American debt, and the Treasury’s decision this week to double long-term bond buybacks all pushed investors toward non-yielding assets.
  • That buyback move aimed to stabilize the bond market after the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. The announcement initially pushed yields lower and further weakened the dollar, adding fuel to gold’s advance.

Prominent market voices highlighted the significance of the move. Economist Mohamed El-Erian noted that gold ranked among the morning’s standout performers, topping $4,600 alongside Bitcoin’s rebound above $79,000.

Longtime gold advocate Peter Schiff pointed to the precious metal’s rally as evidence that the Federal Reserve has lost credibility on its inflation target.

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens.

Sentiment among professional investors has also shifted markedly. Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey showed a net 16% of managers now view gold as undervalued, the highest reading since March 2023 and up sharply from just 6% in July.

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Structural support also remains strong. Central banks continued aggressive buying, with second-quarter purchases hitting a quarterly record.

16% of Fund Managers now believe Gold is undervalued, the most since March 2023. Source: Bank of America/@Barchart
16% of Fund Managers now believe Gold is undervalued, the most since March 2023. Source: Bank of America/@Barchart

US federal debt recently surpassed $40 trillion, amplifying fiscal concerns that favor gold as a hedge against currency debasement.

Rising Treasury yields typically signal investor concern about long-term debt sustainability, and gold tends to benefit when both yields and the dollar soften.

Where Does the Gold Rally Go From Here?

Analysts remain genuinely divided on gold’s next move. Some see the breakout above the 200-day moving average as confirmation of renewed bullish momentum, with potential targets toward $5,000 if dollar weakness persists.

Others caution that higher oil prices and sticky inflation could reinstate pressure on yields, limiting further gains in the near term.

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“…Gold continues its strong run higher, gaining 1.8% on the day and 5.1% on the week to trade at USD 4,600, well above the 200-day MA which was the technical trigger for fresh momentum buying and now also above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the January to June correction at USD 4,574. Next level being the 0.5 retracement and May local high around USD 4,770…,” analyst Ole S Hansen said on X.

Gold (XAU) Price Prediction. Source: X/@Ole_S_Hansen

Silver’s parallel move near $70 reinforces the broader precious metals narrative. Investors appear to be rotating toward tangible assets as confidence in traditional monetary tools shows visible signs of strain.

For now, gold’s return above $4,600 underscores its role as a preferred safe haven amid fiscal uncertainty and shifting monetary expectations across global markets.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch leaders and journalists provide expert insights.

The post Gold Price Hits 3-Month High Amid Bond Market Stress: Is $5,000 Next? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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BTC Hit 3-Month High, ETH Topped $2.4K, XRP Soared 40% in 48 Hours: Weekly Crypto Recap

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Oh, what a week it was in the cryptocurrency (and not only) markets. We will dig into all of that as finally, after weeks (and even months) of sideways action without any clear indication of a breakout, BTC skyrocketed to fresh peaks.

But before we go into details on that, let’s rewind the clock to last Friday, when the primary cryptocurrency was struggling a lot. Despite the positive US CPI data from a few days back, the asset slumped to $62,500 to mark a ten-day low. Again, little to no indication of what was about to happen soon.

The bulls tried to intervene and helped bitcoin recover to $63,000, where it spent the entire weekend with no actual volatility. The first minor signs of a bullish change came on Monday when BTC gradually increased to $64,000. It tapped $65,000 on Tuesday, but as it has frequently happened in the past few months, it was rejected and slipped back down to $64,000.

Then came Wednesday. Instead of another rejection, the bulls took the front seat. In fact, they took all seats, initiating a massive leg up that drove BTC to $70,000 within hours, liquidating over $1 billion in shorts in 60 minutes. After a brief correction to $68,000, bitcoin went on the offensive once again. This time, it flew to $72,000.

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The scenario repeated a few more times, and the culmination, at least for now, took place earlier today. Bitcoin skyrocketed to almost $80,000 for the first time in over three months, gaining $15,000 in 48 hours.

Its massive run was finally halted, or at least paused, and BTC now sits at around $77,000. Nevertheless, the weekly gains are nothing short of mind-blowing, showing a 23.6% surge. Some altcoins have performed even better, with ETH touching $2.4K earlier today after a 30% pump. XRP stole the show as it rebounded from the $1.00 support with a spectacular 40% surge to $1.40.

Other massive gainers include SOL, HYPE, ZEC, DOGE, LINK, ADA, BCH, and many, many more. The chart below paints a very clear picture. After all, the total market cap has added more than $400 billion since Wednesday.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview Weekly, August 21. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview Weekly, August 21. Source: QuantifyCrypto

Market Cap: $2.670T | 24H Vol: $350B | BTC Dominance: 57.9%

BTC: $77,300 (+23.6%) | ETH: $2,390 (+28%) | XRP: $1.40 (+40%)

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Why Did the Bitcoin Price Suddenly Spike Toward $73K? Let’s begin with perhaps the most important question: why did BTC rally so hard? The most obvious answer came just minutes before the Wednesday explosion when the US Treasury Department announced it would double the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks for long-dated government debt, raising them from $2 billion to at least $4 billion.

Bitcoin Back Above $100K? Scaramucci Says the 2028 Halving Holds the Key. Given the latest developments, making bold price predictions is back on the table. Anthony Scaramucci noted, even before BTC’s surge, that the asset is likely to return to a six-digit price territory by its next halving, which is scheduled to occur in H1 2028.

Strategy Stays Put on Bitcoin but Sells a Massive 3.46 Million Shares. More positive news this week came (or didn’t) from Strategy, as the firm refrained from selling more BTC. It didn’t buy any, either, but at least the company has paused its offloads, for now.

Ripple Whales Go Crazy as XRP Price Can’t Stop Surging. As mentioned above, XRP is among the top performers in the past few days. There were some indications of a big move in the making, mostly coming from whales. These large market participants went on an accumulation spree in the past week, scooping almost 400 million tokens in total.

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Polymarket Hit With Access Block in South Korea Over Gambling Allegations. The leading predictions platform continues to hit roadblocks in numerous jurisdictions, and South Korea has emerged as the latest one. The local regulator blocked domestic access to Polymarket after determining that its services facilitated activities considered illegal gambling.

Trump Wants the US to Lead Crypto: Here Are the Biggest Takeaways From the White House Meeting. US President Trump hosted leaders of numerous cryptocurrency firms at the White House on Wednesday (yes, around the time of the price surges), pushing for approval of the highly anticipated CLARITY Act. He also said his administration mulled buying sizeable amounts of bitcoin and other digital assets.

This week, we have a chart analysis of Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Hyperliquid – click here for the complete price analysis.

The post BTC Hit 3-Month High, ETH Topped $2.4K, XRP Soared 40% in 48 Hours: Weekly Crypto Recap appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Bitcoin Rally Lifts Crypto Stocks as Canaan Jumps 25%

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Bitcoin Rally Lifts Crypto Stocks as Canaan Jumps 25%

MarketsPublishedAug 21, 2026

Bitcoin’s rally above $79,000 lifted miners and treasury companies, with Canaan, Strive and Metaplanet posting double-digit gains as crypto stocks surged.

Shares of Bitcoin miners and digital asset treasury companies surged toward the end of the week, tracking a broader rally across crypto markets after the US Treasury announced it would double certain long-dated bond buybacks — a move aimed at supporting liquidity in the Treasury market that also helped bolster risk appetite.

Bitcoin (BTC) miner Canaan led crypto-related stocks on Friday, rising more than 25%. MARA Holdings edged higher after gaining nearly 16% during Thursday’s session.

Strive, which holds more than 20,000 Bitcoin (BTC) on its balance sheet, jumped more than 16% on Friday. Japan-listed Metaplanet, which recently expanded its Bitcoin treasury strategy by acquiring Nasdaq-listed Super League Enterprise, also gained more than 16%.

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Shares of crypto exchange Coinbase and brokerage platform Robinhood posted double-digit percentage gains, underscoring how BTC’s recovery spilled over into publicly traded companies with direct exposure to digital assets.

Crypto-related stocks were rallying as Bitcoin extended its weekly gain to more than 23% on Friday, briefly topping $79,000, according to CoinMarketCap data. Ether (ETH) gained nearly 30% over the same period, climbing above $2,400.

Related: Crypto Biz: Treasury’s ‘Not-QE’ playbook sends Bitcoin higher

Trump adds regulatory tailwinds to crypto rally

Digital asset markets also drew support from comments by US President Donald Trump on Thursday, when he renewed calls for Congress to advance the CLARITY Act. The legislation remains stalled after lawmakers failed to move it forward before the August recess.

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The bill is viewed as a potentially significant step toward establishing a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, including defining the respective oversight roles of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission.

Trump also revived the prospect of the US government acquiring Bitcoin at a “sizable” scale following meetings with crypto industry leaders this week.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs draw $517M in largest one-day inflow since early May

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

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