Connect with us

Crypto World

Bitcoin rally sends Upbit trading volume up 273% to $1.84 billion

Published

on

Bitcoin rally sends Upbit trading volume up 273% to $1.84 billion

Trading activity on South Korea’s two largest crypto exchanges has jumped sharply, with Upbit volume rising 273% to about $1.84 billion as Bitcoin’s latest rally pulls local traders back toward digital assets.

Summary

  • Upbit’s 24 hour trading volume surged 273% to about $1.84 billion, its highest level since mid March.
  • XRP led trading on both Upbit and Bithumb as activity increased across South Korea’s two largest crypto exchanges.
  • Bithumb’s daily volume climbed 132.9% to about $934.9 million during the crypto market rebound.
  • Presto Research said Korean investors could send more capital into crypto if the current rally holds.

According to CoinGecko data on Aug. 21, Upbit recorded its highest daily trading volume since mid-March, while XRP accounted for $418.9 million of transactions and ranked ahead of Bitcoin, USDT and Ether on the exchange.

Bithumb recorded a similar increase, with 24-hour volume climbing 132.9% to about $934.9 million. XRP also ranked as the most-traded cryptocurrency on South Korea’s second-largest exchange.

Advertisement

The pickup follows months of weaker activity across South Korea’s crypto market, where investors spent much of 2026 favoring domestic equities as the KOSPI reached record levels. Bitcoin’s latest rebound, however, has begun pulling some of that attention back toward crypto.

Upbit volume rebounds after months of weak Korean crypto trading

South Korean crypto activity had fallen sharply earlier this year as Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies remained under pressure while local stocks delivered stronger returns.

In May, crypto.news reported that local trading across Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit and Gopax had dropped to only about 8% of KOSPI trading volume. The comparison covered data through May 26 and placed cryptocurrency turnover at less than one-tenth of activity in South Korea’s benchmark equity market.

That was a sharp reversal from late 2024, when domestic crypto exchanges at times generated trading volumes above the local stock market. Negative Bitcoin Korea Premium readings reported during May also showed weaker local demand compared with overseas markets.

Advertisement

The slowdown showed up in exchange earnings. Upbit and Bithumb both reported operating revenue declines of roughly 50% during the first half of 2026. Upbit’s net profit fell 74%, while Bithumb moved from a profit in the comparable period to a net loss.

Much of the competing demand came from South Korean equities. The KOSPI climbed to record highs as investors bought shares linked to the artificial intelligence memory boom, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Even after local stocks became more volatile from late June, Korean traders continued to focus heavily on the semiconductor trade, according to the report.

XRP has again taken the lead on Korean exchanges

XRP’s position at the top of both Upbit and Bithumb’s latest volume rankings continues a trading pattern seen several times this year.

Advertisement

During another surge in May, XRP led Upbit trading with more than $330 million in 24-hour volume. Bitcoin recorded about $217 million at the time, while Ether generated roughly $109 million.

The May increase came after Hana Financial Group announced that Hana Bank would acquire a 1 trillion won, or about $670 million, stake in Dunamu, Upbit’s operator.

Another May trading session saw XRP/KRW become Upbit’s busiest market with about $110.9 million in volume, again placing it ahead of Bitcoin and Ether. The repeated ranking has kept XRP closely tied to periods of heavier retail activity in South Korea.

Recent institutional interest in the country’s exchanges has continued despite weaker trading conditions. Three Samsung affiliates agreed to acquire a combined 4% stake in Dunamu for about $408 million in May.

Advertisement

Samsung Securities, Samsung SDS and Samsung Card agreed to purchase around 1.39 million Dunamu shares from Kakao-linked entities. Samsung Securities was set to take a 2% stake, while Samsung SDS and Samsung Card would each acquire 1%.

On the Bithumb side, Kiwoom Securities entered talks in June over a possible investment through newly issued shares. The size of the proposed transaction and the resulting ownership interest had not been finalized at the time.

Bitcoin rally is drawing attention back to crypto

The latest rise in Korean exchange volumes has coincided with a sharp Bitcoin rebound after the U.S. Treasury Department expanded its debt buyback program.

The Treasury said on Aug. 19 that it would increase the size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated nominal coupon securities by at least twofold. Markets initially treated the decision as supportive for liquidity, helping Bitcoin climb back above $69,000 for the first time since June before the rally extended further.

Advertisement

Bitcoin was up about 8.3% over the previous 24 hours and traded above $78,000 at the time of publication. The total cryptocurrency market had gained around 7.2% over the same period.

Min Jung, associate researcher at Presto Research, told crypto media that two days of stronger activity was not enough to establish that Korean investors had started a sustained move from stocks into crypto.

“While it’s too early to call this a rotation given it’s only been two days, we’d expect a much larger influx of capital into crypto if the rally holds,” Jung said.

With the KOSPI already recording a strong advance this year while cryptocurrencies lagged for months, Jung said investors were starting to consider where another catch-up trade might develop.

Korean retail capital tends to follow returns

Jung described South Korean retail investors earlier this week as “return-chasing” instead of “asset-loyal,” meaning capital can move quickly toward whichever market is delivering stronger performance.

Advertisement

A sustained crypto rally could therefore bring a more substantial amount of Korean capital back into digital assets, according to the researcher.

Jung also said such inflows could influence cryptocurrency prices outside South Korea because Korean trading flows have historically affected markets by more than their percentage share of global volume might imply.

The sequence, however, usually begins outside the country.

“Korean capital tends to follow a rally rather than start one,” Jung said, adding that global market momentum is more likely to attract Korean money first, after which the additional buying can amplify the move.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Crypto World

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Sees Crypto Bull Market Starting Soon

Published

on

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says crypto spot trading is close to its next bull market, citing prior bear cycles that each ran roughly 370 to 380 days.

He spoke on CNBC after President Donald Trump hosted crypto executives and regulators at the White House. Bitcoin (BTC) has since climbed above $78,000.

Trading Activity Had Been Sliding for Months

Armstrong’s call follows a long stretch of thinning volumes and volatile prices. Spot turnover across 14 major exchanges dropped 21.7% in July to $429.0 billion from $547.9 billion in June, according to Wu Blockchain.

Every one of the 14 venues posted a monthly decline. Binance led with $196.5 billion, or 45.8% of the total. Coinbase recorded a 26.4% drop, the second steepest after Bitfinex at 59.7%.

Advertisement

Derivatives cooled too, falling 11.1% to $3.03 trillion. However, the futures-to-spot ratio climbed to 7.06x from 6.21x, showing traders leaned harder into leverage.

Sentiment also stayed depressed well into August, with the Fear and Greed Index sitting at 29 on August 13.

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens

A Bond Market Move Started the Turn

The mood shifted sharply on August 19. The Treasury doubled its bond buyback operations to at least $4 billion each and raised them from two to four per quarter, a plan that starts September 9.

Advertisement

Yields dropped on the news. The 10-year note closed 5.7 basis points lower at 4.647%, while the 30-year fell 9 basis points to 5.196%, according to CNBC.

Furthermore, President Donald Trump suggested that a sizable government purchase of Bitcoin has been discussed. Bitcoin has gained roughly 22% since that day and traded near $78,700 on Saturday. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets

Sentiment has flipped with it, and the Fear and Greed Index reached 71 at press time.

Armstrong Builds His Bull Case Around the Clock and the Calendar

Armstrong’s argument for a bull market with the cycle length. He said spot crypto trading has been in a bear market for about a year, and that each prior bear phase lasted roughly 370 to 380 days.

“We’re basically coming right up against that where people, you know, they’re going to say, well, this one’s about over. It’s time for the next bull run in crypto,” he stated.

Two catalysts sit on top of that. Armstrong pointed to the September 15 Senate vote for the CLARITY Act and to October through December, months he described as traditionally strong for Bitcoin under halving cycles.

Advertisement

“So I think there’s a good chance we’re on the cusp of the next bull market for spot trading in crypto,” he said.

Nonetheless, analyst Benjamin Cowen still puts a “decent chance” of one final selloff if prior midterm years repeat.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch leaders and journalists provide expert insights

The post Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Sees Crypto Bull Market Starting Soon appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Crypto World

Capital.com plans UAE spot crypto launch after license

Published

on

Capital.com plans UAE spot crypto launch after license

Capital.com plans to introduce spot cryptocurrency services in the United Arab Emirates after its affiliate, Capital Vault, received a virtual asset license from the UAE Capital Market Authority.

Summary

  • Capital Vault received a UAE license covering virtual asset dealing, matching, custody, execution and settlement.
  • UAE clients will eventually buy and hold actual crypto assets through the Capital.com application directly.
  • Capital Vault will operate separately, with dedicated governance, custody and risk management arrangements for clients.
  • The planned spot service differs from CFDs, which provide exposure without ownership of underlying cryptocurrencies.
  • Capital.com has not announced the service launch date, supported cryptocurrencies, pricing or minimum account requirements.

Capital.com announced the approval on Aug. 21. The license authorizes Capital Vault to deal in virtual assets as an agent or matching principal and provide custody services for clients.

Once the service launches, eligible UAE customers will be able to buy and hold actual crypto assets through the Capital.com application. Capital Vault will handle trade execution, custody and settlement.

Advertisement

Capital.com did not disclose a launch date, list of supported cryptocurrencies, trading fees or minimum account requirements. The availability of every product may also depend on customer eligibility and local regulatory conditions.

Capital.com will offer ownership beyond CFD exposure

Capital.com currently provides crypto market exposure through contracts for difference in supported jurisdictions. A CFD tracks the price of an asset without transferring ownership of the underlying cryptocurrency to the trader.

The planned spot service changes that structure. Customers will acquire crypto held through Capital Vault rather than entering a derivative contract with exposure to price movements.

Advertisement

This distinction also changes how the product operates. Spot customers require custody and settlement arrangements, while CFD positions remain contracts between the broker and its clients.

Crypto ownership does not remove financial risk. Spot assets can lose value, and customers also depend on the custody provider’s operational, security and withdrawal procedures. Capital.com has not yet published detailed customer terms for the UAE service.

The company already operates a separate UAE brokerage entity, Capital Com MENA Securities Trading. Capital.com’s disclosure lists that business under CMA license number 20200000176 for its existing financial services.

Capital Vault will keep crypto operations separate

Capital Vault will operate as a separate regulated entity. Its governance, custody and risk arrangements will remain separated from Capital.com’s other regulated businesses, according to the announcement.

Advertisement

The affiliate has opened an Abu Dhabi office and is building a local digital asset team. The company did not disclose the number of employees hired or the size of its planned UAE investment.

Capital Vault’s authorization comes from the federal Capital Market Authority. It should not be confused with licenses issued inside the Abu Dhabi Global Market or by Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority, which operate under separate regulatory structures.

Capital Vault also has a European entity. Cyprus regulator CySEC’s public register lists Capital Vault Ltd as an authorized crypto asset service provider under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto Assets framework.

The European authorization covers custody, crypto exchanges, order execution and transfer services. However, the Cyprus and UAE entities remain subject to their respective local rules.

Advertisement

UAE framework expands regulated crypto activities

The Capital Market Authority introduced an updated virtual asset framework in April 2026. It expanded the number of regulated activities from three to eight.

The framework covers dealing, brokerage, custody, portfolio management, transfer services and alternative trading systems. It also establishes requirements for business conduct, capital, governance and anti money laundering controls.

The new rules provide a federal route for companies operating outside the UAE’s financial free zones and Dubai’s VARA jurisdiction. Capital Vault’s license gives Capital.com a path to add spot ownership alongside its established leveraged trading business.

Other companies have also broadened regulated digital asset services in the UAE. As previously reported, Binance secured exchange, clearing and custody permissions in Abu Dhabi through separately regulated entities.

Advertisement

In related coverage, Crypto.com received approval supporting regulated UAE payment services, while Bitpanda expanded into Dubai through a broker dealer license.

Capital.com must now complete its product and operational rollout. The next confirmed developments should include the launch date, available assets, fees, custody terms and rules governing deposits and withdrawals.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Crypto World

anatomy of crypto’s biggest liquidation event since 2021

Published

on

46% of Bitcoin supply now in loss, near 2022 bear levels

Six weeks of bearish positioning ended in 24 hours. Here is how the trade unwound, who got caught, and whether the squeeze has legs.

Summary

  • More than $3 billion in leveraged short positions were liquidated across crypto derivatives markets on Aug 19 and 20, 2026, making it the eighth largest liquidation event on record and the largest concentrated short squeeze since November 2021.
  • Bitcoin climbed from an intraday low near $64,100 to a peak above $72,000, while Ethereum surged roughly 18% in 24 hours, its strongest single day move since March 2024.
  • The U.S. Treasury doubled the maximum size of its liquidity support buyback operations for long dated bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, compressing yields and pushing risk assets higher.
  • Binance absorbed approximately $518 million in liquidations, Hyperliquid roughly $513 million, and Bybit around $303 million, with short positions accounting for 92% of all forced closures.
  • The expanded buyback program runs only through Nov. 4, 2026. If long end yields stabilize by then, there is no guarantee that the larger operation size continues, limiting the macro tailwind.

Crypto derivatives markets had been building toward this moment for six weeks. Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures climbed steadily through July, with funding rates drifting negative as traders added to short positions. Bearish bets outnumbered bullish ones on every major exchange. On Binance, shorts held 51.64% of open interest. On OKX, 51.13%. On Bybit, 52.25%. The consensus was clear: the market was going lower.

Then, over the span of 24 hours, it went violently higher.

Advertisement

What triggered the squeeze

The first catalyst landed on Aug. 19 at approximately 2:30 PM UTC, when the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the maximum size of its liquidity support buyback operations for 10 to 20 year and 20 to 30 year nominal coupon securities. The cap moved from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, effective Sep. 9 through Nov. 4.

Treasury buybacks are not quantitative easing. The department buys back illiquid, off the run bonds and replaces them with fresh, on the run issuance. The net effect on the government balance sheet is roughly neutral. But the market impact is not. By removing duration from the market, buybacks compress long end yields and improve liquidity conditions across risk assets. For more on the mechanics, see our breakdown of how the $4 billion Treasury buyback moved Bitcoin 8% in a day.

Advertisement

Bitcoin responded within minutes. The price moved from $64,100 to $66,800 in the first hour after the announcement. That initial move was enough to trigger the first wave of margin calls on leveraged shorts, and the cascade began.

The liquidation cascade

The mechanics of a short squeeze in crypto derivatives are straightforward but brutal. When a short position on a perpetual futures contract falls below its maintenance margin, the exchange liquidates it by placing a market buy order. That buy order pushes the price higher, which triggers more liquidations, which generates more buy orders. The feedback loop continues until the selling pressure from remaining shorts can absorb the forced buying.

On Aug. 19 and 20, the loop ran for roughly 18 hours before stabilizing.

Total liquidations across all major exchanges exceeded $3 billion. Short positions accounted for approximately $2.77 billion, or 92% of the total. Long liquidations were a rounding error at $264 million. According to CoinGlass data, roughly $1.29 billion in short positions closed within a single hour, the fastest concentrated squeeze of 2026. As we reported when Bitcoin first broke past $68K on the initial $1 billion short squeeze wave, the cascade was just beginning.

Advertisement

The breakdown by exchange reveals how concentrated the pain was. Binance saw approximately $518 million in liquidations. Hyperliquid, the decentralized perpetuals exchange that has grown rapidly this year, absorbed roughly $513 million. Bybit recorded around $303 million. The remaining liquidations spread across OKX, dYdX, and smaller venues.

Bitcoin shorts accounted for approximately $1.37 billion of the total, while Ethereum shorts contributed roughly $1.01 billion. The remainder came from altcoin positions, with Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin among the most affected.

The exchange level data reveals a secondary pattern that the headline numbers obscure. On Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange that does not use a traditional order book for liquidations, the insurance fund absorbed roughly $47 million in losses during the cascade. The fund, which stood at approximately $380 million before the event, dropped to $333 million by the time the squeeze stabilized. On Binance, the auto deleveraging system activated twice during the peak liquidation hour, forcing profitable long traders to partially close their positions to cover the counterparty shortfall. These mechanisms prevented cascading failures at the exchange level but added to the speed and violence of the price move.

The altcoin liquidation data adds granularity that the Bitcoin and Ethereum headlines miss. Solana perpetual futures saw approximately $187 million in short liquidations, driven by the same macro catalysts plus the additional momentum from cumulative SOL ETF inflows crossing $1.16 billion earlier in the week. XRP shorts lost roughly $142 million, with the asset rallying 10% alongside the broader market. Dogecoin, which had seen a buildup of speculative short positions during a quiet July, contributed approximately $89 million. These figures matter because altcoin liquidations tend to be more violent per dollar of open interest. Altcoin perpetual markets are thinner, with fewer market makers and wider spreads. When liquidations cascade through these markets, the price impact per dollar liquidated is significantly larger than in Bitcoin or Ethereum.

Advertisement

Why the positioning was so extreme

The bearish lean in crypto derivatives markets did not appear overnight. It built over six weeks, from early July through mid August, during a period when multiple headwinds converged.

The CLARITY Act, the most comprehensive crypto market structure bill to reach the Senate floor, stalled after its procedural vote was postponed to September. The SEC finalized its “Regulation Crypto Assets” framework, which some market participants interpreted as an attempt to preempt Congressional legislation. For more on how these two frameworks conflict, see our analysis of SEC regulation crypto assets vs the CLARITY Act. Bitcoin had traded in a narrowing range between $60,000 and $66,000 since late June, with each rally attempt meeting selling pressure near the upper bound.

Funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures turned negative in late July and stayed negative through mid August, meaning that short traders were being paid to hold their positions. That dynamic attracted more shorts, creating a self reinforcing cycle of bearish positioning.

The numbers tell the story precisely. On Aug. 18, one day before the squeeze, the eight hour funding rate on Binance Bitcoin perpetual futures stood at negative 0.012%, a level that had persisted for three consecutive weeks. At negative funding, traders holding short positions receive a payment from traders holding long positions every eight hours. The payment is small in absolute terms but compounds meaningfully over weeks. A trader with a $10 million short position at negative 0.012% funding received approximately $3,600 per day simply for maintaining the position. That dynamic attracted capital into shorts not because of a directional thesis but because of the yield. When the forced unwind came, many of these yield seeking shorts had no thesis to defend and no plan for a stop loss.

Advertisement

The result was a market that was heavily one sided. When the Treasury announcement provided a fundamental reason for risk assets to rally, the positioning was too extreme to absorb the move without forced buying.

The second catalyst: the White House summit

The Treasury announcement alone might not have been sufficient to produce a $3 billion liquidation event. But it was followed within hours by reports that President Trump would host a crypto industry summit at the White House, attended by senior SEC officials and executives from major exchanges.

The summit, confirmed for late August, signaled that the administration remained committed to a regulatory framework favorable to the crypto industry. Coming on top of the Treasury buyback expansion, it created a second wave of short covering that pushed Bitcoin from $68,000 to above $71,000 on Aug. 20.

The combined effect of both catalysts was greater than either alone. The Treasury announcement provided the fundamental case for higher prices. The White House summit provided the narrative. Together, they forced the most aggressive unwind of bearish positioning since the collapse of FTX sent the market into a tailspin in November 2022.

How Ethereum outperformed

Ethereum’s 18% single day move was the standout of the squeeze. While Bitcoin gained roughly 8%, Ethereum outperformed by a factor of more than two. The reason lies in the composition of the short positions that were liquidated.

Advertisement

Ethereum shorts on major exchanges had grown disproportionately through July and August, partly because of skepticism about the Pectra upgrade timeline and partly because of persistent outflows from Ethereum spot ETFs. The net short positioning in Ethereum perpetual futures was, relative to open interest, more extreme than in Bitcoin.

When the squeeze began, Ethereum’s thinner order books amplified the price impact. Trading volume on Ethereum pairs surged 402% in 24 hours, according to AMBCrypto data. The asset moved from approximately $1,920 to above $2,270 before stabilizing near $2,250. For our full Ethereum price prediction, see our dedicated analysis.

The rally also exposed a structural risk in DeFi. On Aave, the largest decentralized lending protocol, just 9% of positions carry roughly half of the platform’s total debt. These positions are built around a leveraged Ethereum staking correlation trade, using WETH debt against liquid staking collateral like weETH, rsETH, and wstETH. The average health factor on these positions sits near 1.06, meaning an 8% to 9% wrapper discount could trigger a liquidation cascade on chain.

The staking correlation trade that dominates Aave’s risk profile operates on a simple premise that conceals significant complexity. A trader deposits weETH, a liquid restaking token issued by EtherFi, as collateral on Aave. The trader then borrows WETH against that collateral at a loan to value ratio near 90%. The borrowed WETH is restaked through EtherFi to produce more weETH, which is deposited again as collateral. Each loop multiplies both the staking yield and the leverage. At 10 times leverage, the effective annual yield on the trader’s equity approaches 40% to 50% before accounting for borrowing costs and gas fees. The trade is profitable as long as weETH maintains its peg to ETH within a narrow band. The moment the wrapper discount exceeds the health factor buffer, the entire recursive structure unwinds through liquidation.

Advertisement

The Aug. 20 rally did not trigger that cascade because ETH moved higher, not lower. But the concentration of risk in a small number of highly leveraged positions remains a vulnerability. If Ethereum corrects sharply from current levels, the same positions that survived the upside squeeze could face liquidation on the way down.

The institutional side of the trade added another layer to Ethereum’s outperformance. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, which had recorded net outflows for much of July and early August, posted net inflows of approximately $189 million on Aug. 19 alone. The reversal in ETF flows suggests that institutional investors were not only covering short positions in derivatives but also adding long exposure through regulated products. Weekly ETF inflow figures strengthened in tandem, signaling that the squeeze may have catalyzed a broader reassessment of Ethereum’s near term prospects among allocators who had been underweight the asset.

What the data says about follow through

Not every short squeeze leads to a sustained rally. The question is whether the forced buying created genuine demand or simply cleared out weak hands.

The evidence is mixed. On one hand, Bitcoin’s move above $72,000 broke a six week trading range and set a new short term high. Open interest has declined by approximately 15% since the squeeze, suggesting that leveraged positioning has been significantly reduced. Funding rates have turned positive, indicating that the market is no longer paying traders to be short.

Advertisement

On the other hand, the fundamental catalyst has a built in expiration date. The Treasury’s expanded buyback program runs only through Nov. 4, 2026. After that window closes, Treasury will reassess whether to maintain the larger operation size. If long end yields have stabilized by then, there is no guarantee that the program continues at its current scale.

The derivatives market structure itself has changed in ways that make comparisons to previous squeezes imprecise. Hyperliquid did not exist during the November 2021 squeeze. The decentralized exchange now handles roughly 15% of all crypto perpetual futures volume, and its liquidation mechanism operates differently from centralized exchanges. On Hyperliquid, liquidations are processed through a decentralized backstop pool rather than an insurance fund controlled by a single entity. The pool’s participants absorb losses in exchange for a share of liquidation fees during normal operations. During the Aug. 19 cascade, backstop participants absorbed approximately $47 million in losses, raising questions about whether the pool’s capitalization is sufficient for events of this magnitude.

The macro backdrop also remains uncertain. The Federal Reserve has not signaled rate cuts, and the next FOMC meeting in September could introduce volatility regardless of the crypto specific catalysts. The interplay between macro policy and crypto positioning has rarely been this tight, and the next two weeks will determine whether the squeeze was a reset or a turning point.

Historical parallels

The Aug. 19 squeeze is the eighth largest liquidation event in crypto history by total dollar value. But context matters. Measured as a percentage of total open interest, it ranks higher because the derivatives market in 2026 is smaller than it was during the 2021 bull market peak.

Advertisement

The closest parallel is the November 2021 squeeze that followed Bitcoin’s run to $69,000, which produced roughly $4.2 billion in liquidations. That event marked a local top. The March 2024 squeeze, which preceded Bitcoin’s all time high above $73,000, produced approximately $2.1 billion in liquidations and preceded a sustained rally. The bank custody race that followed the March squeeze suggests institutional infrastructure was a key factor in sustaining that rally.

The difference between a top signal and a continuation signal lies in what happens to open interest after the squeeze. If new positions rebuild quickly on the long side, the market may be setting up for another round of leverage driven volatility. If open interest stays depressed, the squeeze may have cleared the decks for a more organic move higher.

Another variable that distinguishes 2026 from previous squeeze events is the regulatory environment. In November 2021, crypto regulation in the United States was largely absent. By August 2026, the SEC has finalized its Regulation Crypto Assets framework, the CLARITY Act is moving through the Senate, and multiple spot crypto ETFs trade on regulated exchanges. This regulatory infrastructure creates both a floor and a ceiling for price action. The floor comes from institutional capital that can now access crypto through regulated products. The ceiling comes from the compliance costs and operational constraints that regulation imposes on market participants. Whether the post squeeze rally finds sustained support may depend less on derivatives positioning and more on whether the regulatory catalysts produce concrete outcomes before their momentum fades.

What to watch

The aftermath of a squeeze of this magnitude typically unfolds over two to four weeks. The initial move is mechanical, driven by forced buying. The follow through depends on whether new capital enters the market or whether the same participants simply reposition. In 2024, the March squeeze preceded a sustained rally because spot Bitcoin ETFs were absorbing supply at a rate that exceeded the forced buying from liquidations. In 2026, the question is whether the combination of Treasury buyback expansion, a potential White House summit, and the CLARITY Act’s September procedural vote creates a similar supply absorption dynamic or whether the squeeze was a one time clearing event that exhausts bullish momentum. The answer lies in the data that will emerge over the next 14 days, and five indicators in particular deserve close monitoring.

Advertisement
  • Funding rates over the next two weeks. If perpetual funding stays positive but moderate (below 0.03% per eight hours), the market is resetting rather than overheating. If funding spikes above 0.05%, leveraged longs are replacing the liquidated shorts, recreating the same vulnerability in the opposite direction.
  • Treasury buyback execution from Sep. 9. The first operation under the expanded program will reveal whether the $4 billion cap is the floor or the ceiling. Larger than expected operations would compress yields further and support risk assets.
  • Aave health factors on the wstETH/weETH correlation trade. The 9% of positions carrying half of Aave’s debt have average health factors near 1.06. A sharp ETH correction of 8% or more could trigger on chain liquidations that amplify the move.
  • Open interest rebuild pace. If total open interest on Bitcoin perpetual futures recovers to pre squeeze levels within 10 days, traders are re leveraging quickly and another squeeze (in either direction) becomes likely.
  • White House crypto summit outcomes. The late August meeting between the administration and crypto industry executives could produce concrete policy signals that either sustain or undercut the current rally.

What caused the $3 billion crypto short squeeze on Aug. 19?

The U.S. Treasury doubled its liquidity support buyback operations for long dated bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. The announcement compressed yields, pushed risk assets higher, and triggered a cascade of margin calls on leveraged short positions across crypto derivatives markets.

How much were total crypto liquidations on Aug. 19 and 20?

Total liquidations exceeded $3 billion across major exchanges, with short positions accounting for approximately $2.77 billion (92%) and long liquidations totaling roughly $264 million.

Which exchanges had the most liquidations?

Binance recorded approximately $518 million, Hyperliquid roughly $513 million, and Bybit around $303 million. The remainder spread across OKX, dYdX, and smaller venues.

Why did Ethereum outperform Bitcoin during the squeeze?

Ethereum had more extreme net short positioning relative to open interest, thinner order books, and a 402% surge in trading volume. These factors amplified the price impact, producing an 18% gain compared to Bitcoin’s roughly 8%.

Advertisement

Is the Treasury buyback program permanent?

No. The expanded $4 billion per operation program runs only from Sep. 9 through Nov. 4, 2026. Treasury will reassess after that window closes based on whether long end yields have stabilized.

What is the Aave concentration risk related to the Ethereum rally?

Just 9% of Aave positions carry roughly half of the platform’s total debt. These positions use leveraged Ethereum staking correlation trades with average health factors near 1.06. An 8% to 9% wrapper discount could trigger on chain liquidations.

How does this squeeze rank historically?

It is the eighth largest liquidation event in crypto history by total dollar value. By percentage of total open interest liquidated, it ranks higher because the 2026 derivatives market is smaller than the 2021 peak.

Could the squeeze reverse quickly?

If the Treasury buyback program does not continue after Nov. 4 and the Federal Reserve maintains restrictive monetary policy, the macro tailwind driving the rally could fade. However, the reduction in open interest suggests that leveraged positioning has been cleared, reducing the risk of an immediate reversal. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.

Advertisement

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets carry substantial risk. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Published Aug. 21, 2026.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Crypto World

President Trump crypto profits called inappropriate by 63%: poll

Published

on

Trump earned $1B from crypto. What he holds

Most Americans believe President Donald Trump and his family should not earn money from cryptocurrency while he holds office, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Aug. 19.

Summary

  • 63% of surveyed Americans called Trump family crypto profits inappropriate, while 32% considered them appropriate.
  • 69% of Republicans considered the profits appropriate, while 92% of Democrats described them as inappropriate.
  • 1,166 adults participated in the four-day Reuters/Ipsos poll with a three-point overall sampling error margin.
  • Reuters calculated more than $1.4 billion in 2025 crypto income from Trump’s financial disclosure filing.
  • 69% said private business interests influence presidential decisions, extending concern beyond cryptocurrency earnings and investments.

The survey found that 63% of respondents considered the Trump family’s crypto profits inappropriate. Another 32% viewed the activity as appropriate, while the remaining respondents did not answer the question.

Reuters and Ipsos conducted the nationwide online survey between Aug. 14 and Aug. 17. The poll included 1,166 U.S. adults and carried a margin of error of about three percentage points.

Advertisement

Trump crypto profits expose a partisan divide

Views differed sharply by political affiliation. About 69% of Republicans considered the family’s cryptocurrency earnings appropriate, according to the reported results. By comparison, 92% of Democrats said the activity was inappropriate.

The poll also examined broader concerns about private commercial interests. Around 69% of respondents said they believed Trump’s business interests influenced his presidential decisions. That included approximately two-thirds of independent respondents and nine in ten Democrats.

Advertisement

The findings measure public opinion and do not establish that Trump violated any law or influenced government policy for financial gain. The White House has consistently rejected allegations of a conflict.

“There are no conflicts of interest. The President only acts in the best interests of the American public,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told Reuters.

Trump has also said his investments are managed independently and that he does not participate in the family businesses’ daily operations.

Financial filing puts crypto income above $1.4 billion

The poll followed the publication of Trump’s annual financial disclosure in June. A Reuters analysis of the filing calculated that Trump reported more than $1.4 billion in income connected to cryptocurrency ventures during 2025.

The figure represents reported income rather than the current value of Trump’s personal cryptocurrency holdings. As crypto.news reported, the disclosure included more than $1 billion in crypto-related income from projects including World Liberty Financial and the Official Trump memecoin.

Advertisement

Companies linked to the Trump family received almost $800 million from World Liberty Financial activities, Reuters calculated. The total included more than $520 million connected to token sales and over $250 million from the sale of business interests.

The filing also reported approximately $635 million from licensing arrangements associated with the TRUMP token. In related coverage, blockchain analysis found that many buyers recorded substantial losses while Trump-linked entities continued receiving transaction-related revenue.

These figures should not be treated as a calculation of personal net profit. The disclosed revenue flowed through several companies and agreements, and some proceeds were shared among Trump family members and business partners.

Ethics concerns overlap with U.S. crypto policy

The debate comes as the Trump administration promotes legislation establishing clearer federal rules for digital assets. Lawmakers have disagreed over whether crypto market legislation should include restrictions on elected officials and their families.

Advertisement

As previously reported, proposed ethics provisions have become a central obstacle to advancing crypto legislation. Supporters argue that broad market rules remain necessary, while critics want stronger safeguards covering officials with financial interests in digital-asset businesses.

World Liberty Financial also received conditional approval on Aug. 14 to establish World Liberty Trust Company as a national trust bank. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency listed the decision in its official records. Conditional approval does not allow immediate operations because the company must satisfy the regulator’s requirements before opening.

Congressional scrutiny, future financial disclosures and the conditions attached to World Liberty’s proposed trust bank will provide further tests of the separation between Trump’s public duties and family business interests. The Reuters/Ipsos results indicate that most Americans remain unconvinced that the current arrangements adequately address those concerns.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Crypto World

Shinhan taps Solana for Korean won tokenized fund

Published

on

MoneyGram takes validator role on Solana, joins institutional developer platform

South Korea’s Shinhan Asset Management signed a four-party memorandum on Aug. 21 to test a Korean won tokenized fund using the Solana blockchain.

Summary

  • Shinhan Asset Management signed a four-party agreement to test a won-denominated tokenized investment fund workflow.
  • The Solana pilot covers investor checks, issuance, distribution and onchain liquidity during proof of concept.
  • Etherfuse supplies tokenization infrastructure while Orca supports onchain liquidity design for fund distribution testing workflows.
  • Korea’s amended securities laws are expected to take effect in early 2027 after preparations conclude.
  • The project remains a proof of concept and has no confirmed public launch date yet.

The agreement brings together Shinhan Asset Management, the Solana Foundation, tokenization platform Etherfuse and decentralized exchange Orca. The participants will conduct a proof of concept covering the fund’s issuance and distribution process.

The planned product would invest in short term Korean won bonds and target overseas institutional investors. However, the participants have not announced the fund’s size, expected yield or public launch date.

Advertisement

Shinhan will test the complete tokenized fund process

The proof of concept will examine the steps needed to issue and distribute a regulated tokenized fund. These include know your customer checks, anti-money laundering controls, token issuance and onchain liquidity arrangements.

Shinhan will provide asset management and regulatory expertise. Etherfuse will supply infrastructure for creating and managing the tokenized assets. Orca will help design the liquidity system used to distribute or exchange the fund tokens on Solana.

The Solana Foundation said the model draws from BlackRock’s BUIDL fund, one of the largest tokenized money market products. The comparison refers to the blockchain based distribution model. It does not mean the proposed Shinhan fund will hold the same assets or offer the same legal rights.

BlackRock’s product primarily invests in U.S. Treasury bills, cash and repurchase agreements. By comparison, Shinhan’s test concerns a Korean won product backed by short term domestic bonds.

Solana expands its institutional fund activity in Asia

Solana offers low transaction fees and rapid settlement, which could support frequent subscriptions, redemptions and transfers. However, those technical features do not remove securities registration, custody or investor protection requirements.

Advertisement

The network has already attracted other Asian asset managers. As previously reported, SBI Global Asset Management launched a tokenized Japanese equity fund on Solana in July. That product targets institutional and accredited investors through regulated tokenization platform DigiFT.

Shinhan has also been testing more than one blockchain. On Aug. 14, the asset manager signed a separate agreement with Plume to develop a demonstration for a won-denominated tokenized fund.

The parallel projects suggest Shinhan is examining different technical and distribution models rather than committing exclusively to Solana. Results from the tests could determine which infrastructure the manager uses after South Korea’s regulatory framework becomes effective.

Korea’s 2027 framework will determine any launch

South Korea’s National Assembly passed amendments supporting tokenized securities on Jan. 15. The legislation recognizes distributed ledgers as valid securities registries and permits qualifying investment contract securities to circulate through licensed securities companies.

Advertisement

The Financial Services Commission said issuers will still need to satisfy existing securities registration and disclosure obligations. Unlicensed companies will not be allowed to broker tokenized securities.

The amendments are expected to take effect one year after their promulgation, with implementation anticipated in early 2027. Regulators are preparing account management infrastructure and investor protection rules before the rollout, according to the FSC’s official statement.

As crypto.news reported, South Korean authorities are preparing rules for stocks, bonds and funds alongside a blockchain platform operated for the Korea Securities Depository.

Market forecasts remain uncertain

Solana said the existing tokenized real world asset market was worth about $36 billion. The announcement also cited a Boston Consulting Group projection suggesting the sector could reach as much as $30 trillion by 2030.

Advertisement

That projection should be treated as a forecast rather than an expected outcome. BCG’s more recent middle scenario estimates tokenized real world assets could reach $14 trillion by 2030 and $55 trillion by 2035. Its faster growth scenario places the market as high as $88 trillion by 2035.

Current adoption remains much smaller. In related coverage, publicly visible onchain assets grew to approximately $30 billion by mid-2026, led by private credit and tokenized government debt.

The next stage will involve completing the proof of concept and aligning the fund structure with Korea’s final rules. Any commercial launch will depend on regulatory approval, operational testing and demand from eligible overseas institutions.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Crypto World

We Asked 3 AIs if BTC’s Bull Run Has Started After the 25% Surge to $80K: The Answers Encouraged Us

Published

on

The cryptocurrency markets have the tendency to change the overall sentiment and narrative in very short periods of time. Although some might have forgotten about this quality due to the prolonged sluggishness over the past several months, what transpired in just 48-72 hours reminded us of the market’s real nature.

Bitcoin’s price stood still below $65,000 for weeks before it initiated its most impressive rally of the year, surging by 25% in days to almost $80,000 on Friday. This became its highest price tag since the May run. The question now is whether this marks the end of the bear market and the commencement of the bull phase, or whether there will be another rejection.

Yes, But With a Catch

To gain further perspective on the matter, we touched upon three of the most popular AI chatbots – ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok. OpenAI’s platform began on a high note, indicating that the bear market “probably ended at the July low” when the cryptocurrency dipped below $58,000 for the first time since late 2024.

However, the AI said there’s no official confirmation yet and added that it would put a 70% probability that $57,800 was the cycle bottom and a 30% chance that BTC’s surge to $80,000 was an “exceptionally violent bear-market rally.”

Advertisement

Interestingly, Gemini and Grok agreed to a large extent. The former said, “Declaring the absolute end of a bear market requires macroeconomic confirmation, but the structural data from late 2026 strongly suggests we are at a major pivot point.” Grok was cautiously bullish as well, noting that BTC appears to be out of the woods unless another major bearish catalyst emerges, such as war escalation in the Middle East, rising interest rates in the US, or something entirely unexpected.

No Victory Yet

It’s worth noting that all three AIs brought the mid-May rally that drove BTC to $83,000. And all three warned that there are no guarantees that bitcoin won’t follow the same fate and slump again. As such, ChatGPT noted that the real test for the cryptocurrency is not here yet.

While some analysts, such as Ali Martinez, believe the next major resistance lies at $83,000, OpenAI’s platform noted that BTC has to surge past the $85,000-$90,000 cluster so that the bulls can declare victory. Meanwhile, Grok added:

“BTC began 2026 around $88,500 and surged above $97,000 in January. Even at $80,000, it’s still approximately 37% below the $126,000 ATH. In other words, bitcoin has produced a spectacular rebound but has not yet repaired the entire bearish market structure.”

Gemini also warned that one aggressive move doesn’t erase a multi-month downtrend. To do so, BTC would have to retain its recent gains and establish the upper $70,000 range as new support over the next month. If it does, then the “bear cycle can confidently be called over.”

Advertisement

The post We Asked 3 AIs if BTC’s Bull Run Has Started After the 25% Surge to $80K: The Answers Encouraged Us appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Source link

Continue Reading

Crypto World

Strategy Bitcoin treasury returns to profit above $75,385

Published

on

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart, source: crypto.news

Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury briefly returned to an unrealized profit on Aug. 21 after Bitcoin climbed above the company’s $75,385 average acquisition price.

Summary

  • Strategy holds 840,447 Bitcoin acquired for $63.36 billion at $75,385 per coin including expenses overall.
  • Bitcoin climbed above Strategy’s average acquisition price during an 8.5% daily market rally on Friday.
  • At $75,613, Strategy’s holdings carried approximately $192 million in unrealized gains before prices changed again.
  • BitMine reported 5,815,164 ETH with 5,067,309 tokens staked through its validator network currently in operation.
  • Ethereum near $2,371 leaves BitMine’s treasury deeply below the reported $3,366 average cost estimate currently.

Bitcoin reached approximately $75,613 during the rally, placing Strategy’s 840,447 BTC about $228 per coin above its disclosed cost basis. Multiplying that difference by its holdings produced an estimated unrealized gain of approximately $191.6 million.

The gain changed rapidly with Bitcoin’s price. Crypto.news price data later placed BTC near $75,500, reducing the estimated surplus to about $97.5 million. These figures are snapshots rather than fixed company results.

Advertisement

Strategy Bitcoin holdings cross their cost basis

Strategy reported that its remaining Bitcoin was acquired for approximately $63.36 billion, including fees and expenses. The position carried an average purchase price of $75,385 per coin as of Aug. 16.

Bitcoin rose about 8.5% over 24 hours, trading between approximately $69,498 and $75,528, according to crypto.news market data. The move brought the asset above Strategy’s average price for the first time since its recent decline.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart, source: crypto.news
Bitcoin (BTC) price chart, source: crypto.news

The company’s Bitcoin position remains below its June peak of 847,363 BTC. Strategy sold several batches during the summer to support preferred share payments, repurchases and its U.S. dollar reserve.

As previously reported, the company sold 1,690 BTC for $108.6 million during the week ending Aug. 9. It used those proceeds to repurchase approximately 1.15 million STRC preferred shares.

Advertisement

Strategy made no Bitcoin purchases or sales during the following week. It instead raised $333.7 million by issuing MSTR common shares, according to its latest regulatory disclosure.

Unrealized gains remain sensitive to Bitcoin price

Strategy needs Bitcoin to remain above $75,385 for its current treasury to stay above the disclosed aggregate purchase cost. A $1,000 movement in Bitcoin changes the position’s market value by approximately $840.4 million.

An unrealized gain does not provide cash unless Strategy sells Bitcoin or uses the holdings in a financing transaction. It also does not account for the company’s debt, preferred stock obligations, cash holdings or software business.

Under current U.S. accounting rules, qualifying crypto assets are measured at fair value, with changes recognized through earnings. However, accounting results can differ from the simple comparison between market value and aggregate purchase cost.

Advertisement

MSTR gained approximately 7.8% during Thursday’s session and closed near $112.39. The stock’s performance can differ from Bitcoin because shareholders also face dilution, financing costs and claims from securities that rank above common stock.

Strategy shares price chart, source: Google Finance
Strategy shares price chart, source: Google Finance

In related coverage, Strategy CEO Phong Le said the company plans to resume Bitcoin accumulation during 2026. The company has not announced a date or amount for its next purchase.

BitMine remains below its reported Ethereum cost

BitMine Immersion Technologies reported 5,815,164 ETH as of Aug. 16 after adding 9,926 tokens during the preceding week. Its company release also listed 198 Bitcoin and other investments.

Third-party treasury data estimated BitMine’s average ETH acquisition cost at approximately $3,366. BitMine’s latest company release confirmed the token balance but did not provide that average cost figure. It should therefore be treated as an outside calculation rather than a company-confirmed amount.

With Ethereum trading around $2,371, the difference from the reported average cost was approximately $995 per token. Applied across 5,815,164 ETH, that produces an estimated unrealized loss of about $5.79 billion.

Advertisement

As crypto.news reported, BitMine increased its holdings to 5.82 million ETH while staking approximately 5,067,309 tokens. The staked balance represented about 87% of its reported ETH holdings.

The company projected $250 million in annualized staking revenue using recent yields. That figure remains a management forecast because staking rates, token prices and active balances can change.

What happens next for both treasuries

Strategy’s next weekly SEC filing will show whether it maintained its Bitcoin holdings, resumed purchases or sold more coins. Its future position relative to cost will depend primarily on whether BTC holds above $75,385.

Strategy must also balance Bitcoin accumulation against its preferred dividends, security repurchases and dollar reserve. Its previous filings showed that recent share sales were directed toward liquidity rather than additional Bitcoin purchases.

Advertisement

BitMine’s position requires a larger price recovery to return to the reported average cost estimate. Ethereum would need to rise about 42% from $2,371 to reach $3,366, assuming the estimated cost and treasury balance remain unchanged.

Future BitMine disclosures will also show whether staking rewards and further purchases reduce its effective average cost. Until those figures are reported, comparisons between the two treasuries remain market value estimates rather than realized corporate gains or losses.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Crypto World

Ripple joins Clearpool, Cicada to launch institutional RLUSD credit fund

Published

on

Ripple joins Clearpool, Cicada to launch institutional RLUSD credit fund

Ripple has backed a new institutional credit fund that will issue RLUSD working-capital loans to fintech and payments companies through the XRP Ledger, with Clearpool and Cicada Partners handling the lending infrastructure and credit management.

Summary

  • Ripple is backing a new fund that will provide RLUSD working capital loans to fintech and payments companies.
  • Cicada Partners will source borrowers and manage credit risk, while Clearpool is building the lending infrastructure.
  • The fund is still being tested as the XRP Ledger lending and vault features await mainnet approval.
  • Ripple will participate as a limited partner and will not guarantee investor losses.

CoinDesk reported on Aug. 21 that the fund will provide loans denominated in Ripple USD (RLUSD), while Cicada Partners will source borrowers, set lending terms and oversee credit risk. Clearpool is developing the infrastructure needed to create and manage the credit pools, with Ripple joining other institutions as an investor.

The companies did not disclose the planned size of the fund or the amount Ripple has committed.

Advertisement

Under the structure, Cicada will serve as the fund’s general partner and credit-pool manager. The firm said it has underwritten more than $860 million in credit, while Clearpool said its lending platform has facilitated more than $930 million in institutional loans since 2021.

Ripple will participate as a limited partner under the same terms offered to other investors, according to the report. Its involvement does not include a guarantee against losses, leaving borrower assessment and credit management under the structure established by Cicada.

RLUSD credit fund will finance working capital

Borrowers approved for the fund will receive RLUSD and repay their loans in the same stablecoin, giving the dollar-pegged token a direct role in the credit cycle.

The structure separates Ripple’s stablecoin from XRP’s function on the network. RLUSD will serve as the asset being lent, while XRP will continue to cover XRP Ledger transaction fees and the minimum reserve balances required for accounts.

Advertisement

For Ripple, the planned fund adds lending to existing uses for RLUSD across settlement and trading. A July report from Evernorth said RLUSD had already generated more than $2.5 billion in trading across XRP Ledger pairs since its public launch, with the RLUSD/XRP pair accounting for about $900 million over six months, as previously covered by crypto.news.

Evernorth also said RLUSD’s share of on-chain trading had climbed from below 1% to around 12% during 2026. The report put RLUSD supply on the XRP Ledger slightly above its Ethereum supply at the time.

The new credit product would give the stablecoin another use if the lending system reaches the XRP Ledger mainnet, allowing institutions to supply and borrow dollar-denominated liquidity without using XRP as the loan asset.

Advertisement

XRP Ledger lending still awaits mainnet activation

Clearpool’s integration is currently being tested on a development network because the two XRP Ledger features needed to run the product have not completed the network’s amendment process.

XLS-65, known as Single Asset Vaults, allows funds from multiple participants to be pooled into a vault managed under defined rules. XLS-66 introduces the lending protocol that can issue, service and repay fixed-term loans directly on the ledger.

The structure places credit underwriting outside the blockchain while using XRPL to handle the movement and accounting of funds. Under the proposed system, institutions can assess borrowers and negotiate loan terms off-chain before the lending protocol manages the resulting credit position on-chain.

The proposals entered validator consideration earlier this year. A June report on the protocol detailed how XLS-66 uses Single Asset Vault liquidity for fixed-term lending while leaving borrower underwriting and risk assessment to participating institutions.

Advertisement

Activation requires validator approval under the XRP Ledger amendment system. Until the required support threshold and voting conditions are met, the Clearpool and Cicada product cannot operate through the planned native lending functions on mainnet.

Developers and infrastructure providers can still work with the features on devnet, giving firms time to test applications before a possible activation.

Security work has focused on XRP Ledger credit features

The lending code has undergone additional security work ahead of its proposed mainnet deployment.

RippleX developers and Common Prefix used formal verification to examine the planned lending system earlier this year. The June formal verification review covered both XLS-66 and XLS-65, with the work designed to identify edge cases that conventional software testing could miss in financial infrastructure implemented directly at the Layer 1 level.

Advertisement

The review examined the fixed-term lending model, which uses pooled vault liquidity and relies on off-chain credit assessment for uncollateralized borrowers. The model differs from lending systems where collateral and automatic liquidation rules handle most borrower risk directly through application-level smart contracts.

Security firm Halborn subsequently completed a re-audit of the XRP Ledger Lending Protocol. Its June lending protocol re-audit found no critical or high-risk issues after reviewing changes linked to fixed-term loans and Single Asset Vaults.

Halborn identified five findings in total: one medium-severity issue, two low-severity issues and two informational findings. The firm said all reported findings were addressed, with some resolved by Ripple’s engineering team and others accepted or acknowledged following review.

One medium-severity finding involved a way for loan interest to bypass a maximum-assets limit applied to a vault, according to the audit. Halborn’s engagement covered transaction checks, accounting rules, state consistency, parameter limits and access controls across the protocol.

Advertisement

XRP has rallied as the credit plan emerges

XRP has gained almost 20% over the past 24 hours to trade around $1.30 and is up about 30% over seven days, according to CoinDesk, placing the token among the strongest performers during the latest crypto market rally.

The advance followed a sharp move across major cryptocurrencies after the U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of its long-dated bond buyback program. The Treasury plans to increase the cap on individual operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion beginning Sept. 9, a move that initially pulled long-term yields lower and weakened the dollar.

Bitcoin climbed above $72,000 during the market move, while XRP recorded a 10.4% gain on Wednesday before extending its advance into Thursday. Decrypt reported that XRP’s weekly rise reached roughly 30% after the token had traded below $1 the previous week.

XRP exchange-traded fund inflows fell from $5.81 million to $2.35 million during part of the rally, while Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $517 million, according to the same report. XRP futures open interest had also fallen 11.31% from its rally-day level as of Aug. 20.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Crypto World

half of Aave’s debt sits in 9% of positions

Published

on

Ethereum proposal could end staking rewards at 50%

The biggest single day ETH move in two years did not trigger the liquidation cascade. But the concentrated staking correlation trade on Aave is one bad day from unwinding.

Summary

  • Ethereum surged approximately 18% on Aug. 20, 2026, its strongest single day move since March 2024, climbing from roughly $1,920 to above $2,270 as trading volume jumped 402%.
  • More than $1 billion in Ethereum short positions were liquidated across derivatives markets during the rally, contributing to a broader $3 billion crypto liquidation event.
  • On Aave, the largest decentralized lending protocol with roughly $12.2 billion in total value locked, just 9% of positions carry approximately half of the platform’s total debt.
  • These concentrated positions are built around a leveraged Ethereum staking correlation trade, using WETH debt against liquid staking collateral like weETH (42% of collateral), rsETH, and wstETH, with average health factors near 1.06 and debt to equity ratios near 10.7 times.
  • An 8% to 9% discount in liquid staking wrapper prices relative to ETH could trigger on chain liquidations across hundreds of accounts, creating a cascade risk that the Aug. 20 rally obscured but did not eliminate.

The number that matters from Aug. 20 is not 18%. It is 1.06.

Ethereum’s single day gain of roughly 18% dominated the headlines. Trading volume surged 402%. More than $1 billion in short positions were liquidated. The altcoin market cap crossed $1 trillion. By every surface metric, it was one of the strongest days for Ethereum in two years.

Advertisement

But underneath the rally, a structural vulnerability in decentralized lending sat untouched. On Aave, 9% of positions carry roughly half the protocol’s total debt. Those positions run at an average health factor of 1.06, a margin of safety so thin that an 8% to 9% move in the wrong direction could trigger a liquidation cascade on chain.

The rally did not test that vulnerability because ETH moved higher, not lower. The concentrated positions survived. But surviving is not the same as being safe.

The anatomy of the correlation trade

To understand the risk, start with the trade itself.

Ethereum’s transition to proof of stake created a new asset class: liquid staking tokens. When a user stakes ETH through a protocol like Lido, Rocket Pool, or EtherFi, they receive a derivative token (wstETH, rETH, or weETH) that represents their staked position. These tokens are designed to trade at or near a 1:1 ratio with ETH, accruing staking rewards over time.

Advertisement

The correlation trade exploits the tight relationship between these wrapper tokens and ETH itself. A trader deposits liquid staking tokens as collateral on Aave, borrows WETH against them, stakes the borrowed WETH to create more liquid staking tokens, and repeats. Each loop adds leverage. The profit comes from the staking yield, which compounds with each layer of recursion.

On paper, the trade appears low risk. The collateral (liquid staking tokens) is correlated with the debt (WETH). As long as the wrapper tokens maintain their peg to ETH, the health factor remains stable. The borrower earns staking yield on every layer of collateral while paying borrowing costs on the WETH debt.

In practice, the risk is concentrated in the peg itself.

Where the leverage sits

The data on Aave’s concentrated positions is specific enough to be alarming.

Advertisement

Just 9% of Aave positions hold approximately half the protocol’s total debt. The debt weighted loan to value across this cohort runs near 90%. Their average health factor sits at 1.06. Their debt to equity ratio is approximately 10.7 times.

The collateral backing these loans tells the story. Ethereum staking and restaking wrappers, including weETH, rsETH, and wstETH, make up about 66.2% of the collateral. weETH alone accounts for roughly 42%. WETH makes up about 73% of the group’s total debt.

Total stablecoins supplied on Aave stand at $8.98 billion, with $7.40 billion borrowed, producing a utilization rate of 82.46%. The protocol’s total value locked is approximately $12.2 billion.

The concentration is remarkable. A small number of highly leveraged positions, all running the same fundamental trade, hold enough debt to create systemic consequences if they unwind simultaneously.

Advertisement

What a depeg would look like

A health factor of 1.06 means the collateral is worth 6% more than the minimum required to avoid liquidation. For these positions, that translates to a buffer of roughly 8% to 9% in wrapper discount before liquidations begin.

A wrapper discount occurs when a liquid staking token trades below its expected value relative to ETH. This can happen for several reasons: a rush to exit staking positions, a smart contract vulnerability in the staking protocol, a governance failure, or simply a market wide liquidity crunch that drives sellers to accept below peg prices.

Aave learned this lesson in March 2026. A stale risk oracle parameter led to approximately $26 to $27 million in wstETH liquidations. The incident was contained because it affected a single collateral type and the parameter was corrected quickly. But it revealed how oracle latency could interact with concentrated positions to produce outsized losses.

Advertisement

A broader depeg scenario would unfold differently. If weETH, which backs 42% of the concentrated cohort’s collateral, were to trade at a 10% discount to ETH, the health factors on hundreds of accounts would drop below 1.0 simultaneously. Aave’s liquidation mechanism would activate, selling wrapper tokens into a market that is already discounting them. The selling pressure from liquidations would widen the discount, triggering more liquidations.

This is the same feedback loop that operates in centralized derivatives markets during a short squeeze, but in reverse and on chain. Instead of forced buying pushing prices higher, forced selling pushes prices lower. And because the liquidated collateral is the same asset that is being discounted, the cascade feeds on itself.

Why the rally masked the risk

Ethereum’s 18% surge on Aug. 20 had the opposite effect on the concentrated Aave positions. Higher ETH prices improved health factors across the board. Wrapper tokens rallied in line with ETH, maintaining their pegs. The positions that sit at 1.06 health factor at current prices were temporarily safer.

Advertisement

But the rally also encouraged behavior that makes the eventual risk worse. When ETH prices rise, staking yields become more attractive in dollar terms. Traders have an incentive to add more layers of recursion to the correlation trade, increasing leverage. If the concentrated cohort added positions during or after the rally, the health factors may have returned to the same 1.06 level at higher absolute prices, meaning the dollar value at risk has increased even though the percentage buffer remains the same.

DeFi lending protocols do not have circuit breakers. There is no exchange operator to halt trading during extreme volatility. There is no margin call that gives a borrower time to add collateral. When the health factor drops below 1.0, liquidation is automatic and immediate. The speed of the cascade is limited only by block time and gas availability.

The rally was driven by macro catalysts including Treasury buybacks and a White House summit. If those catalysts fade and ETH retraces, the concentrated positions will be the first to feel the pressure.

The staking yield illusion

The correlation trade is popular because the math looks compelling in normal conditions. Staking yields on Ethereum currently range from 3% to 5% annualized, depending on the protocol. At 10 times leverage, the effective yield on equity approaches 30% to 50% annualized, minus borrowing costs.

Advertisement

But this calculation assumes the wrapper peg holds perfectly. It assumes liquidity in the wrapper market remains sufficient to absorb large sales without price impact. And it assumes that no exogenous shock, whether a smart contract exploit, a regulatory action against a staking provider, or a sudden spike in ETH volatility, disrupts the correlation.

Each of these assumptions has been violated at least once in the history of liquid staking tokens. Lido’s stETH traded at a 7% discount to ETH during the Terra/Luna collapse in June 2022. Rocket Pool’s rETH briefly dipped below peg during the FTX contagion in November 2022. These dislocations were temporary, but they occurred during conditions when leveraged positions on the same tokens would have been liquidated.

The August 2026 rally created an opportunity for traders to take on more of this risk at what feel like higher prices and wider margins. Whether those margins are real or illusory depends entirely on what happens next.

Aave’s risk management response

Aave is not unaware of the concentration risk. The protocol’s governance forum has discussed parameter adjustments to address the wstETH/weETH correlation trade, including reducing the loan to value ratio in E mode (the enhanced efficiency mode that allows higher leverage for correlated assets) and increasing liquidation incentives to attract faster liquidator participation during stress events.

Advertisement

The March 2026 incident, in which a stale oracle parameter caused $26 to $27 million in unintended liquidations, prompted a review of oracle update frequencies and fallback mechanisms. The protocol now runs multiple oracle sources for major collateral types.

But governance adjustments move slowly in DeFi. Proposals must pass through community discussion, snapshot votes, and on chain execution. The concentrated positions exist now. A parameter change that takes two weeks to implement offers no protection against a depeg event that unfolds in two hours.

The broader DeFi ecosystem faces the same challenge. Compound, Morpho, and other lending protocols have varying degrees of exposure to the same liquid staking correlation trade. If a depeg event triggers liquidations on Aave, the selling pressure would affect wrapper prices across all platforms simultaneously. Institutional custodians watching from the sidelines would have reason to reconsider their DeFi exposure calculations.

What to watch

  • Wrapper discount thresholds. Track the price of weETH, wstETH, and rsETH relative to ETH on DEX aggregators. Any sustained discount above 3% is a warning sign. A discount above 8% would begin triggering liquidations on the concentrated Aave positions.
  • Aave E mode parameter proposals. Governance proposals to reduce the loan to value ceiling in E mode for liquid staking collateral would force the concentrated cohort to reduce leverage. Track the Aave governance forum and snapshot voting page.
  • ETH volatility after the rally. The 18% move was driven by macro catalysts. If those catalysts fade and ETH retraces, the concentrated positions will be tested. A 15% decline from current levels would bring ETH back to the pre rally range near $1,920, which could stress wrapper pegs.
  • Liquidation bot capacity. On chain liquidation depends on bots that monitor health factors and submit liquidation transactions. If gas prices spike during a cascade, slower bots may fail to participate, reducing liquidation efficiency and increasing bad debt risk.
  • Aave’s total stablecoin utilization rate. At 82.46%, utilization is already high. If it climbs above 90%, withdrawal liquidity shrinks and the protocol’s ability to absorb a cascade deteriorates.

How much of Aave’s debt is concentrated in a small number of positions?

Approximately 9% of Aave positions carry roughly half of the protocol’s total debt. These positions run at an average health factor of 1.06 with debt to equity ratios near 10.7 times.

Advertisement

What is the Ethereum staking correlation trade?

Traders deposit liquid staking tokens (weETH, wstETH, rsETH) as collateral on Aave, borrow WETH against them, stake the borrowed WETH to create more liquid staking tokens, and repeat. Each loop increases leverage and staking yield exposure.

What would trigger liquidations on these positions?

An 8% to 9% discount in liquid staking wrapper prices relative to ETH would push health factors below 1.0, triggering automatic on chain liquidations. A 10% depeg could flip hundreds of accounts below the danger threshold simultaneously.

Has a liquid staking depeg happened before?

Yes. Lido’s stETH traded at a 7% discount during the Terra/Luna collapse in June 2022. Rocket Pool’s rETH briefly dipped below peg during the FTX contagion in November 2022. Both dislocations were temporary but would have triggered liquidations on leveraged positions.

What is Aave’s total value locked?

Aave holds approximately $12.2 billion in total value locked as of August 2026, with $8.98 billion in stablecoins supplied and $7.40 billion borrowed, producing a utilization rate of 82.46%.

Advertisement

Why did the March 2026 Aave incident happen?

A stale risk oracle parameter led to approximately $26 to $27 million in wstETH liquidations. The incident highlighted how oracle latency can interact with concentrated positions to produce unintended losses.

Does Aave have circuit breakers?

No. DeFi lending protocols do not have the ability to halt trading or pause liquidations during extreme volatility. When a health factor drops below 1.0, liquidation is automatic and limited only by block time and gas availability.

How does Ethereum’s 18% rally affect the concentration risk?

The rally temporarily improved health factors by pushing collateral values higher. However, it may also have encouraged traders to add leverage, potentially returning health factors to the same tight 1.06 level at higher dollar values, increasing the absolute amount at risk. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets and DeFi protocols carry substantial risk, including the risk of total loss. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Published Aug. 21, 2026.

Advertisement

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Crypto World

Crypto mining pool Poolin files for bankruptcy in New Jersey

Published

on

Crypto mining pool Poolin files for bankruptcy in New Jersey

Bitcoin mining pool operator Poolin Technology and two affiliated companies have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New Jersey, with court records placing Poolin’s estimated liabilities between $100 million and $500 million.

Summary

  • Poolin and two affiliates filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in New Jersey on July 22.
  • Poolin listed liabilities of $100 million to $500 million and up to 25,000 creditors.
  • Qualified bids for the debtors’ assets are due Sept. 8, with a possible auction set for Sept. 10.
  • Creditors are scheduled to meet Aug. 28, while the asset sale hearing is set for Sept. 18.

Verita Global’s case information page shows that Poolin Technology PTE. LTD., Lonestar Taproot LLC and Lonestar Dream, Inc. filed voluntary petitions on July 22 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of New Jersey. The three cases are being jointly administered under Poolin’s lead case, 26-18325, before Judge Eamonn J. O’Hagan.

Poolin’s filing lists estimated assets of between $1 million and $10 million and liabilities of between $100 million and $500 million. The petition estimates that the company has between 10,001 and 25,000 creditors and states that funds are expected to be available for distribution to unsecured creditors.

Advertisement

Court records give Lonestar Taproot case number 26-18326 and Lonestar Dream case number 26-18327. All three companies remain debtors in possession while the Chapter 11 process moves forward under the jointly administered case.

Poolin bankruptcy moves toward an asset sale

The debtors told the court that they entered Chapter 11 to carry out an orderly sale process intended to preserve value for creditors and other interested parties. Michael DuFrayne, the companies’ chief restructuring officer, said in a first-day declaration that the process would use Chapter 11 to pursue sales of the debtors’ assets.

On Aug. 17, the bankruptcy court approved bidding procedures covering substantially all of the debtors’ assets and authorized Poolin and its affiliates to designate a stalking horse bidder. The order also set procedures for an auction, the treatment of certain contracts and leases, and a hearing on the proposed sale.

Under the sale timetable, qualified bids are due Sept. 8, while an auction is scheduled for Sept. 10 if competing qualified bids are received. A court hearing on the proposed asset sale is scheduled for Sept. 18 at 11 a.m. ET before Judge O’Hagan in Trenton.

Advertisement

The bidding process covers assets held across Poolin and its two U.S. affiliates. Lonestar Dream had substantially completed the wind-down of operations at its mining sites by the bankruptcy filing, according to DuFrayne’s declaration, after discontinuing services for customer Elektron Energy and beginning the removal of Elektron equipment from the facilities.

A limited workforce was kept in place to protect the mining sites and equipment, support the asset sale and administer the bankruptcy proceedings. Lonestar Taproot, meanwhile, owns equipment and other property linked to the mining facilities, including power-related assets, buildings, improvements and substation infrastructure, according to the filing.

Lonestar Taproot previously operated as a partnership involving Lonestar Dream and mining hardware maker Bitmain between March 2022 and December 2023. Court filings state that Bitmain contributed about $34.4 million and received roughly $24.1 million when it withdrew after the partnership recorded significant losses.

Advertisement

Creditors are set to meet on Aug. 28

Poolin’s creditors are scheduled to meet on Aug. 28 at 9 a.m. ET through a remote Section 341 meeting. The date remains upcoming and has not yet taken place, according to the amended Chapter 11 notice filed on Aug. 5.

Creditors seeking to file proofs of claim can send originally executed forms to the Poolin Claims Processing Center operated by KCC dba Verita Global in El Segundo, California. The case page states that claims may be submitted through U.S. mail or another hand-delivery system, while fax and other electronic delivery methods are not accepted.

A general deadline for filing proofs of claim had not yet been established in the amended bankruptcy notice.

Archer & Greiner, P.C. is representing the debtors in the proceedings. Stephen M. Packman, Alexander J. Andrews, Doug Leney and Natasha Songonuga are listed among the attorneys handling the cases, while the court has also approved the retention of DuFrayne LLC as crisis manager and Michael DuFrayne as chief restructuring officer.

Advertisement

The bankruptcy court has also authorized Verita Global to serve as administrative adviser. Additional restructuring professionals include Oon & Bazul LLC as Singapore restructuring and insolvency counsel and McCarn, Weir & Sherwood P.C. for oil, gas and mineral matters.

Poolin previously faced a wallet liquidity crisis

Poolin’s financial problems became public several years before the Chapter 11 filing. In September 2022, crypto.news reported that Poolin suspended withdrawals from PoolinWallet after the company faced liquidity problems and a rise in withdrawal requests.

The company subsequently said it would issue six IOU tokens representing users’ BTC, ETH, USDT, LTC, ZEC and DOGE balances at a 1:1 ratio. Poolin said at the time that it was considering several ways to address the liquidity shortage, including seeking new investment, pursuing debt-to-equity transactions and selling assets.

Another report from September 2022 said Poolin had stopped withdrawals, flash trades and internal transfers through PoolinWallet while leaving routine mining operations and direct mining-pool payouts unaffected. The company also suspended certain swap services as it tried to preserve liquidity.

Advertisement

Financial pressure has remained a problem across parts of the Bitcoin mining industry in 2026. A July analysis found that public miners sold Bitcoin at a record pace during the first quarter, with more than 32,000 BTC sold as hashprice fell to post-halving lows.

The same report placed hashprice in the high-$20 range per petahash per day by mid-2026, below the roughly $35 level cited as the breakeven point for older mining machines.

Bankruptcy proceedings have also continued to surface elsewhere in the crypto infrastructure sector. In May, Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin Depot filed for Chapter 11 after taking its crypto ATM network offline, with the company citing regulatory pressure and financial losses as it moved toward a shutdown.

Poolin’s bankruptcy docket has continued to develop since its July petition. On Aug. 17, the court entered the order approving the bidding procedures for substantially all of the debtors’ assets, allowing the companies to proceed toward the September bid deadline, possible auction, and sale hearing.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2025