Kalshi’s contract on a federal government shutdown on October 1, 2026 priced YES at 15-16 cents, an implied odds near 10% and down sharply from 35% just three weeks earlier.

Polymarket’s parallel market, which resolves on a different trigger and a later cutoff, still showed 16.5 cents as of August 14, per Polymarket Trader’s snapshot. The gap between those two numbers says less about Washington than about how differently the two venues define a shutdown.

The Goverment Shutdown Odds In 2026 Aren’t Pricing the Same Bet

Kalshi’s contract resolves YES only if part of the government is shut down at 10:00 a.m. ET on October 1 specifically. Polymarket runs two separate contracts on the same date: one requiring an actual shutdown, agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically with furloughs, by 11:59 p.m. ET, and a second, broader “any-duration lapse” contract that pays out even on a brief technical gap with zero operational impact.

On August 14, Polymarket priced the shutdown version at 16.5 cents and the lapse version at 13.5 cents.

A third Polymarket market bundles “another shutdown by January 31, 2027” with the 2026 House winner. Its no-shutdown legs had already settled at zero cents by the August 14 check, while the shutdown-plus-Democratic-House leg traded at 87.3 cents.

That is the market telling traders something specific: a lapse somewhere in the current funding cycle is priced as close to certain, even while an October 1 lapse specifically sits in the mid-teens.

A Five-Week Repricing, Told Through Three Snapshots

Kalshi’s own market commentary put the shutdown contract at 35% on July 31, with Senate negotiators reportedly nearing a stopgap that would fund the government to December 4 while capping a disputed OMB rule on appropriated spending.

By August 3, the cross-venue average had fallen to 28%, with Kalshi at 25% and PredictIt at 31%. Two weeks later, Kalshi had drifted down again to the 12-13% range on roughly $193,000 in contract volume.

That trajectory, 35%, then 28%, then roughly 12-13%, is a repricing toward “Congress avoids the specific date,” not toward “shutdown risk is gone.”

The combined Polymarket market’s zeroed-out no-shutdown legs for January 31 make that distinction explicit: traders are separating the October 1 deadline from the broader fiscal-year window, and pricing them very differently.

Both books remain thin relative to 2025, when related shutdown contracts on Polymarket cleared roughly $157 million in cumulative volume on the start-date market alone – a reminder that current liquidity of a few thousand to a few hundred thousand dollars leaves these prices more exposed to spread and single-trade repricing than last year’s deeper markets.

The Percentage Is Only Half the Trade. Kalshi Lets You Trade the Exact Question.

The shutdown market shows why prediction trading is more than glancing at a headline probability. A 15% contract can mean something very different from another market showing 16% if the resolution rules, timing, and trigger are not identical.

That precision is part of Kalshi’s appeal.

Users can trade directly on defined real-world outcomes across politics, economic data, Fed decisions, crypto, and other major events, with every contract spelling out exactly what must happen for YES or NO to settle.

For traders following Washington into October, that creates a cleaner way to express a view than trying to guess how stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, or the dollar might react to the same event.

The government may avoid a shutdown at 10:00 a.m. on October 1 and still face another funding crisis weeks later. Kalshi lets traders separate those questions rather than treat them as a single macro bet.

Eligible new users who join through CryptoNews can also receive $25 through our referral link.

Make Your Prediction Count With $25 For Free on Kalshi

The post Goverment Shutdown 2026 Odds Fall as Markets Split the October 1 Risk appeared first on Cryptonews.

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The planned tie-up would make Gemini the exclusive CFTC-regulated venue for crypto event contracts offered through Apex’s futures commission merchant.

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Two of the three proposals would reduce SOL supply growth by speeding up Solana’s inflation decline and raising daily fee burns from about 650 SOL to as much as 9,000 SOL.

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XRP is changing hands at $1.47, down 1.25% over the last 24 hours, a pullback that looks minor against the backdrop of what’s happening in the ETF complex. Cumulative net inflows into U.S. spot XRP ETFs hit roughly $1.51 billion, with total net assets sitting between $940 million.

The Friday’s flow data shows inflows of about $18 million, led by Bitwise, Grayscale, and Franklin, a rebound from a rougher stretch where weekly inflows collapsed roughly 93% to just $1.01 million earlier in August. Markets seem to be pricing that optimism in real time.

The bigger question: does $1.5 billion in cumulative inflows represent durable institutional conviction, or is it a headline number masking week-to-week fatigue?

Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio

XRP Price Prediction: Hit $2 This Week?

At $1.47, XRP has already cleared levels that recent coverage framed as resistance. Our reports from earlier in the month had the token oscillating between $0.98 and $1.01 after briefly losing the psychological $1 handle.

XRP is at a meaningful structural shift. The $1.20 resistance zone that bulls were watching has been taken out entirely, and the token is now trading well above the consolidation range that defined most of August.

Xrp (XRP)

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If ETF inflows continue their rebound, regulatory clarity headlines keep landing, and XRP grinds toward new multi-month highs with $1 acting as freshly minted support, XRP could catapult towards its $2 high. If price consolidates in the $1.40–$1.55 band, traders will digest the recent move and wait for the next flow update.

However, a sharp reversal of ETF sentiment or a broader risk-off macro shift, as the $40 trillion federal debt overhang isn’t going away, drags XRP back toward $1.20 support. Watching the next ETF flow print will likely settle which scenario plays out.

Trade XRP on Bybit and Get a Chance to Win Our $1,000 USDT Airdrop

LiquidChain Targets Early Mover Upside as XRP Tests Key Levels

Anyone who bought XRP price near $1 in early August is sitting on a solid move. But here’s the catch: at XRP’s current market cap, a repeat of that percentage gain requires billions more in fresh capital rotation.

Institutional flows help, but they move slowly. Traders chasing the next multiple often look further down the risk curve, toward assets still in price discovery.

That’s the pitch behind LiquidChain ($LIQUID), a Layer 3 infrastructure project fusing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana liquidity into a single execution environment.

The presale token sits at $0.01493, with closer to $950K raised so far. The pitch centers on a deploy-once architecture, so developers build once and access liquidity across all three ecosystems, rather than fragmenting deployments chain by chain.

Verifiable settlement and single-step execution round out the technical case.

Research LiquidChain directly before committing capital.

Discover: The Best Token Presales

The post XRP Price Prediction: $1.5B ETF Inflows and Institutional Backing appeared first on Cryptonews.

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The Tom Lee-chaired Ethereum accumulator has ramped up its ETH acquisitions amid the asset’s major price revival experienced last week.

The company has acquired 32,447 tokens over the past week, and its total has skyrocketed to 5,847,611 ETH as of August 23. With Ethereum’s price jumping to $2,440 yesterday, this put the firm’s position at $14.3 billion – or about $3 billion higher than the previous week.

97% of the Way

Taking into consideration the latest purchase announced earlier on August 24, the company’s total stash of almost 5.85 million ETH represents approximately 4.8% of Ethereum’s entire 120.7 million token supply. This means that the firm has completed 97% of its so-called “Alchemy of 5%” strategy. The ultimate goal is to control 5% of the altcoin’s supply, an ambitious move it started in late June last year.

BitMine hasn’t been deterred by the recent price moves in the crypto industry. Recall that ETH traded at around $1,900 by last Wednesday and has shot up by 30%, topping $2,500 briefly before it calmed just below that level today. This became its largest weekly surge since May 2025.

Tom Lee highlighted that the previous two comparable weekly rallies, in July 2021 and May 2025, were subsequently followed by gains of 167% and 170%, respectively. Although this sounds quite impressive, it’s worth noting (again) that historical performance provides no guarantees that the asset will repeat either move.

Bitmine’s latest purchase was also a lot higher than most of its previous ones, which dropped to around 10,000 ETH on several occasions. As reported last week, the company bought 10,270 tokens after acquiring 9,926 ETH the week before.

Keep Staking

The other major development highlighted in the most recent announcement was the continuous staking effort from the company. It has now staked over 5,067,300 tokens, worth approximately $12.4 billion at current prices. This represents 87% of Bitmine’s entire Ethereum treasury.

The current estimates show that the company could generate approximately $330 million in annualized revenue based on a seven-day annualized yield of 2.67%. If it stakes its entire portfolio through its own institutional platform called MAVAN, the projected numbers could rise to $381 million.

The post BitMine Nears Massive Ethereum Milestone as ETH Holdings Reach 5.85 Million appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Fasset raised $68 million in a Series C led by SBI Group as the companies plan a digital bank in Malaysia and to expand stablecoin payments.

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BNB price traded near $704 on Aug. 24 after gaining almost 16% in seven days, as momentum from the broader crypto rally and the upcoming Pasteur hard fork kept buyers in control.

Summary

• BNB price rose about 16% over seven days and reached a weekly high near $725.
• The daily RSI reached 85.25, placing the token deep in overbought territory.
• A 4-hour Supertrend signal remained bullish, with dynamic support at $663.
• Liquidation clusters at $710 and $719 could attract price if BNB continues higher.

BNB price action today

According to data from crypto.news, BNB (BNB) price was trading near $704 at the time of writing, up about 1% over the previous 24 hours. The token had gained almost 16% over seven days, lifting its market capitalization to approximately $93 billion.

The rally accelerated after BNB broke out of the $600–$620 range that had restricted price action during the first half of August. Buyers pushed the token through $650 on Aug. 20 before it briefly climbed above $720 over the weekend.

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BNB reached a weekly high near $725 before profit-taking pulled the price back below $690. Buyers absorbed the decline, however, and the token returned above the psychological $700 mark on Aug. 24.

The 4-hour chart showed BNB forming higher lows following the pullback. Its latest candle traded between $692.94 and $705, indicating that buyers were defending dips below $700.

Chaikin Money Flow stood at 0.07 on the 4-hour chart. A positive reading means more capital is entering the asset than leaving it, although the indicator has eased from the elevated levels recorded during the initial breakout.

Pasteur hard fork supports BNB Chain activity

BNB’s advance comes one day before the Pasteur hard fork is scheduled to activate on BNB Smart Chain.

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According to BNB Chain’s upgrade schedule reported by crypto.news, Pasteur will go live at 2:30 a.m. UTC on Aug. 25. Node operators must install client version v1.7.7 before the activation.

The upgrade combines three proposals intended to improve cross-chain transfer security, restrict permissions linked to replaced validator keys, and increase block capacity. Internal testing raised transaction throughput from 1,237 to 2,324 transactions per second.

Pasteur does not directly change BNB’s supply, making it difficult to separate the upgrade’s effect from the broader market rally. Still, the approaching activation has given traders a network-specific event to watch while demand for major crypto assets remains strong.

BNB Chain has also recorded a sharp expansion in tokenized real-world assets. RWA.xyz data showed more than 1.15 million RWA holders on the network, up nearly 580% over 30 days at the latest reading.

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The network held about $5.8 billion in distributed asset value, while 30-day RWA transfer volume reached $28.17 billion. Those figures measure activity involving tokenized assets and do not represent capital flowing directly into BNB.

US policy shift strengthens the broader market backdrop

BNB’s rally followed a market-wide rise that lifted Bitcoin above $77,000 and pushed several large-cap altcoins through long-standing resistance levels.

Improving US regulatory expectations formed part of that move. On Aug. 18, the Securities and Exchange Commission proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, a tailored securities offering framework for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets.

The proposal does not classify BNB or grant the token regulatory approval. However, it signals that the SEC is considering defined fundraising and disclosure pathways instead of applying the existing securities registration system without crypto-specific exemptions.

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US macro conditions also supported risk assets after the Treasury Department doubled the planned size of long-term bond buybacks from a maximum of $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.

The program is intended to improve liquidity in older long-dated Treasury securities rather than inject funds directly into cryptocurrencies. Falling yields and a weaker dollar initially accompanied the announcement, creating a more favorable backdrop for Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.

BNB faces resistance at $719 and $734

BNB’s daily chart shows that the rally has moved into an extended technical zone.

The token crossed the Murray Math resistance level at $687.50 and was trading above the $703.13 overshoot level. The next targets shown on the chart are $718.75 and $734.38.

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The $719 area is the first major test because it sits near the recent local high and an elevated band of short-liquidation exposure. A daily close above that level could open a retest of $725, followed by the $734–$745 region.

However, the daily Relative Strength Index stood at 85.25, well above the conventional overbought threshold of 70. Its moving average was lower at 69.85, showing how quickly momentum increased during the breakout.

An overbought RSI does not guarantee a reversal, but it raises the risk of consolidation or a sharper pullback if buying slows. The first support sits at $703, followed by the former resistance level at $687.50.

Below that, the 4-hour Supertrend remained bullish at $663.13. A close beneath the indicator would weaken the short-term trend and place the $656–$640 region back in focus.

Liquidation heatmap points to $710 as the next magnet

The 24-hour CoinGlass liquidation heatmap showed the closest large concentration of leveraged positions around $709–$711. BNB was approaching that zone from below at the end of the chart.

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Further liquidation bands appeared between $714 and $720, suggesting that a break above $710 could trigger additional buying as short positions are forced to close. Higher clusters were visible near $724, $730, and $734.

On the downside, notable liquidity rested around $691, $687, and $682. A rejection from $710 could therefore pull the price toward those lower clusters, particularly if highly leveraged traders begin closing long positions.

Crypto analyst EinsteinBTC1 identified $745 as the larger breakout level on BNB’s weekly chart. The analyst said a weekly close above that resistance would confirm a move toward $960, with the former all-time-high region near $1,376 presented as a longer-term target.

$BNB IS APPROACHING A MAJOR BREAKOUT ZONE#BNB has broken its descending trendline and is now pressing against the critical $745 resistance.

THE BULLISH ROADMAP:
→ Weekly close above $745 = breakout confirmation
→ $960 = first major target
→ $1,376 = ATH retest zone

THE… pic.twitter.com/HT1mLQjKzA

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— Einstein 👑 (@EinsteinBTC1) August 23, 2026

The forecast remains conditional. BNB must first overcome the $719–$734 resistance band while managing an overbought daily RSI. Holding above $687.50 would preserve the immediate bullish setup, whereas a loss of $663 would indicate that the current rally is losing strength.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Strategy held off on new Bitcoin buying, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC as it launched a $1.59 billion cash pool after raising $2 billion from MSTR stock sales.

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