The devastating floods that have swept through the Nepal–Tibet border region are first and foremost a human tragedy. Hundreds of people have died or remain missing.

But as scientists begin to reconstruct what happened, the event also exposes something fundamental about the way we understand natural hazards in high mountain regions. Mountains and rivers do not reset after an extreme event. A landslide changes a slope. A flood rearranges a river. A retreating glacier exposes sediment and unstable ground. Each disturbance changes the conditions in which the next one occurs. In the Himalayas, those connections can turn individual hazards into destructive hazard cascades.

Early satellite and seismic evidence indicates that this disaster began high in the mountains with the collapse of part of a slope and steep glacier in Tibet. A huge mass of ice and rock travelled rapidly into the valley below, mobilising water, sediment and debris that then spread through the river system and into Nepal. The precise mechanics of the event will take time to establish. But describing it simply as a flood captures only the final stage of a much longer process.

I am involved in a UK-Indian academic project that starts from a simple proposition: hazard risk in the Himalayas is not static.

Climate change is changing how hazards interact

For instance, retreating glaciers can leave behind unstable slopes and large stores of loose sediment. Some have been described as “sediment bombs” because huge quantities of material can remain in a valley until released by another landslide, severe rainfall or a flood. The first hazard therefore changes the landscape in which the next one happens.

It would be wrong to conclude from a glacier collapse alone that climate change caused this particular disaster. Individual events require careful attribution, and steep Himalayan landscapes have always experienced landslides, avalanches and floods. But climate warming is changing the background conditions in which these processes operate: glaciers are retreating, the slopes they inadvertently support are being destabilised, new lakes are forming and large volumes of loose sediment are being exposed. Warmer air can also hold more moisture, increasing the potential for intense precipitation.

More importantly, these changes are making hazards even more connected. Changes in glaciers can influence slope stability. Slope failures can obliterate glaciers in seconds and alter entire river drainage patterns. Altered rivers can mobilise sediment. Sediment can amplify subsequent flooding.

Additionally, mountain landscapes retain a physical record of what has happened before. A landslide can load a river system with debris that takes years or decades to move downstream, altering channels and changing how later floods behave.

Heavy rain falling on a relatively stable catchment with a clear river channel is one thing. The same rainfall after a major landslide has deposited millions of tonnes of sediment and narrowed that channel is another. The hazard and trigger event may be similar. The landscape it encounters is not.

In the latest Nepal disaster, sediment will have been redistributed through the catchment. Channels will have changed, and some slopes may have been destabilised. Embankments that once guided water and sediment have been damaged or destroyed entirely.

Communities can carry these effects forward too. The same river corridor experienced serious flooding in 2025, when lives were lost, a Nepal–China friendship bridge was destroyed and transport and trade were disrupted. Some communities affected this week were still living with the consequences of a previous disaster.

Disaster planning needs to factor in a changed landscape

Early warning has to keep up and this disaster is a further wake up call to address fundamental challenges around disaster-risk management. Early-warning systems are often built around known hazards and known thresholds: a particular river level, rainfall intensity or unstable slope. But major events can change the geography of the risk itself. After a landslide or debris flow, a previously minor tributary may contain huge quantities of mobile sediment, while a river that previously carried monsoon floods safely may have become shallower or narrower. Evacuation routes can disappear.

A hazard map produced before such an event may therefore provide an increasingly poor representation of what happens afterwards. One of the aims of our project is to develop ways to track those changes and feed them into risk assessments and new smart early-warning systems.

Cascades thinking means asking how one disaster changes the conditions for the next. The floods in Nepal will leave behind altered river channels, unstable slopes and damaged infrastructure. The next heavy rainfall – or collapsing glacier – will encounter that changed landscape.

Flowers, toys and heartbreaking messages have been left outside the Grangetown home where Valentina Foster, seven, and her aunt Natalie McDonald, 34, died on Wednesday (August 26) morning.

Valentina Foster, seven, and Natalie McDonald, 34, have been named locally as the two victims who died following a house fire in Grangetown. (Image: Provided)

Police have not ruled out the blaze, which police are treating as murder, being linked to wider organised crime, including the horror smash on the A66 which killed seven.

Among the floral tributes is a photograph of the pair alongside bouquets and toys.

One message reads: “RIP Natalie and Valentina you will be missed.”

Flowers left at the scene of a house fire on Birchington Avenue where two people were killed (Image: SARAH CALDECOTT)

Flowers at the scene on Birchington Avenue, Grangetown, near Middlesbrough, where Valentina Foster, aged seven, and Natalie McDonald, 34, died following a fire at an end-of-terrace property on Wednesday morning. (Image: OWEN HUMPHRIES)

Natalie’s mother, Lisa Kirton, told the Times her daughter was “a beautiful, bubbly person who everyone knew”.

She said: “She had a heart of gold who would give anyone anything. She left behind a daughter with no parents.

Lisa described Valentina as “one of the family”, saying she had been staying at the house for the school summer holidays.

Flowers left at the scene of a house fire on Birchington Avenue where two people were killed (Image: SARAH CALDECOTT)

Flowers left at the scene of a house fire on Birchington Avenue where two people were killed (Image: SARAH CALDECOTT)

She said: “She was a cute little kid. I can’t believe it, seven years old – it’s just a disgrace.”

A Care Bear and teddy bear have also been left at the scene, alongside a note which says: “Now she dances with butterflies Valentina.”

Other messages read: “Valentina what a lovely young girl, so sad, RIP.”Another says: “RIP Valentina, gone too soon, always missed.” 

Tributes to Natalie include: “RIP Natalie, life and soul of the party!”

Flowers at the scene on Birchington Avenue, Grangetown, near Middlesbrough, where Valentina Foster, aged seven, and Natalie McDonald, 34, died following a fire at an end-of-terrace property on Wednesday morning. (Image: OWEN HUMPHRIES)

Another reads: “Nat, will always be in my thoughts you were the party girl going to be sadly missed RIP.”

Valentina’s grandmother also paid tribute online, writing: “Life is so cruel, my beautiful granddaughter Valentina. Your dad will be waiting for you.”

Natalie McDonald and Valentina Foster have been named locally as the victims of the Grangetown house fire. (Image: Provided)

As tributes were laid for Natalie and Valentina, Teesside also paused to remember PC Matthew Blades and PC Tom Clough, who died in the A66 crash on Saturday (August 22).

A minute’s silence was held at Cleveland Police headquarters and at the scene of the fire on Birchington Avenue.

At 11am police officers held a minutes silence for the two officers killed on the A66 while guarding the scene of a house fire on Birchington Avenue where two people were killed. (Image: SARAH CALDECOTT)

One tribute at the police station reads: “Tommy, Bladesy, You will be remembered as two of the very best. I am proud of you both and you will be forever missed. I don’t have the words to describe the loss we all feel. Genuine, real-life heroes. – M.”

Another says: “PC Matthew Blades, PC Tom Clough, you will be missed, never forgotten. Rest in peace.”

PC Matthew Blades (left) and PC Tom Clough (right) (Image: CLEVELAND POLICE/CARMEL COLLEGE)

A further message reads: “There are no words to convey the sadness we all feel at the tragic loss of Tom and Matt. We are all thinking about you and their families and the weight of grief you are carrying. POLIT”

Flowers and messages also continue to be left by the A66.

Floral tributes by the A66 for PC Matthew Blades and PC Tom Clough. (Image: SARAH CALDECOTT)

Floral tributes by the A66 for PC Matthew Blades and PC Tom Clough. (Image: SARAH CALDECOTT)

Huge sums raised for the families affected by the tragedies.

Last night a fundraiser for Valentina’s family had raised £2,200.

A separate fundraising drive for the families of PC Blades and PC Clough has reached £1.09 million.

The Cleveland Police Federation fundraiser says the officers “paid the ultimate sacrifice in the line of duty” and left behind “heartbroken loved ones”.

More than 30 British nationals are believed to be among those missing and feared dead after disaster struck on Wednesday this week and into Thursday.

Paul Heslop, trustee of Farnworth-based charity A Must for Dolakha (AMFD), returned from Nepal at the end of July and says they have heard many messages of concern about the tragedy.

He said: “The main area of the disaster originated in in the area north of Kathmandu in the Rasuwa district of the country.

“It has been suggested that the flooding and mudslides were as a result of the collapse of a glacier on the Tibet/Nepal border.

People walk past damage in the aftermath of flash floods in Devighat in the Nuwakot district in Nepal (Image: AP Photo/Niranjan Shrestha)

“All of our friends and their families are safe, along with the schoolchildren and school that the charity supports, on the Sindupalchowk/Dolakha border.

“There is extreme concern about some of the trekking guides that come from our friends’ home village. Some are still unaccounted for.

“Trekking guides in Nepal can work many miles from their own villages and tend go where the work is, this changes throughout the seasons.”

AMFD, based on Clelland Street in Farnworth, mainly focused on the Dolakha area of Nepal which is about 50 miles east of the capital Kathmandu.

A policeman with a sniffer dog looks at the damage in the aftermath of flash floods in Devighat in the Nuwakot district in Nepal (Image: AP Photo/Niranjan Shrestha)

Despite this relatively short distance, it is a four of five-mile drive because of Nepal’s mountainous terrain.

Mr Heslop, a familiar figure to many in Bolton from his years as a councillor for Kearsley, has been a frequent traveller to the landlocked south Asian country.

He said it was only 11 years since Nepal had been devastated by earthquakes.

Mr Heslop said: “The next big worry is whether there is a secondary flood caused by a lake, on the Tibet/Nepal border, filling up and then flooding down the Bhote Khosi river.

People walk through water in the aftermath of flash floods in Devighat in the Nuwakot district in Nepal (Image: AP Photo/Niranjan Shrestha)

“It is being reported that the Chinese government is monitoring the situation and look at ways to avoid the lake rupturing its banks.

“Naturally, many roads in Nepal meander parallel to the river.

“Our friends assure us that they will be staying on higher ground and will not be going down to the valley bottom until they are sure that it is safe.

“I simply can’t imagine the level of worry on the minds of the families of the 33 missing Britons in Nepal and I sincerely hope that they are safe.

Nepalese policemen watch as earthmovers clear the debris of flash flooding in Nepal’s Nuwakot district (Image: AP Photo/Niranjan Shrestha)

“This also goes for the hundreds of Nepalis and foreign tourists that are still unaccounted for.

“Nepal is a truly stunning country, and its people are some the friendliest and humble people that you could meet on the planet.

“It’s such a tragedy that with all this beauty, the country suffers from frequent natural disasters.”

Prime Minister Andy Burnham said on Wednesday that the government will do “everything we can” to support British nationals in Nepal following the floods.

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said it was “deeply saddened by the loss of life and devastation caused by the floods in Nepal”.

A spokesperson said: “British nationals in Nepal should follow local authority advice and exercise caution while travelling.

“For consular assistance call (+44) (0)207 008 5000 or (+977) (0)14237100.”

Anyone interested in more information about A Must for Dolakha can email amfd@outlook.com.

A former Border Patrol official who helped spearhead President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown has claimed the administration now wants him dead.

Gregory Bovino made the explosive allegation during a lengthy interview with conservative podcaster Tucker Carlson, released Wednesday night.

“Do I think they want me killed? Absolutely,” Bovino told Carlson during the interview, which has been viewed two million times on X alone. The White House has labeled his comments “absurd.”

Bovino, 56, was one of the most prominent figures associated with Trump’s hard-line immigration agenda. As a Border Patrol commander-at-large, he helped lead enforcement operations in Minnesota and became known for aggressive measures, including firing tear gas at protesters — a tactic that has prompted legal scrutiny.

He left his post in January, after federal agents shot and killed two American citizens in Minnesota, incidents that triggered growing opposition to the administration’s immigration enforcement approach, polls show. Bovino retired from federal service several months later.

Trump has distanced himself from Bovino, describing him in January as “a pretty out there kind of guy.” The president later called for a “softer touch” on immigration.

During his interview with Carlson — who has also broken with the administration — Bovino claimed that his security detail was withdrawn as soon as he left government, despite what he described as an onslaught of death threats.

He said he believed the protection had been removed as part of an effort to “silence him.”

“Silence you, like get you killed? Because that’s what it sounds like,” Carlson said.

“Do I think they want me dead? At this point yes,” Bovino replied.

“I’m in a running battle every time I go out,” he continued. “I mean, every time the citizens of my own community are like, ‘What is going on with you?’ These people come up. There’s some crazies out there. You know, you know this, Tucker, and you bet. Do I think they want me killed? Absolutely.”

Bovino clarified that he does not believe Trump is behind the alleged effort. Instead, he blamed the administration’s “hellacious gatekeepers,” specifically naming Border Czar Tom Homan.

“This is absurd,” White House spokesperson Lauren Bis told The Independent. “Tom Homan is an American patriot and career law enforcement officer with decades of experience effectively protecting American communities and deporting illegal aliens.”

A White House official said that Homan does not get involved with security matters regarding former or current DHS officials.

Elsewhere in the interview, Bovino said believes forces within the Trump administration are opposed to carrying out the mass deportation campaign the president had promised — which he claimed is not actually underway.

He also asserted, without offering evidence, that 105 million undocumented immigrants are currently living in the U.S., a figure that would represent nearly one in three people in the country.

According to the U.S. Census, there are about 50 million immigrants in the country. As of 2023, there were an estimated 14 million illegal immigrants living in the U.S., according to the Pew Research Center.

The Independent has contacted DHS for comment.

Putin will be well aware of Donald Trump’s periodic disdain for Nato and he may have calculated that a low-key attack on say, Lithuania, is not going to trigger Nato’s mutual self-defence clause – Article 5 – and that the US will not respond.

In which case it would make sense for part of the CIA chief’s unexplained mission to Moscow was to remind Russia that the US is still fully committed to Article 5.

Lithuania is of special interest to the Kremlin as it has a common border with Poland known as the “Suwalki Gap”. Just 60 miles long, this strip of land is all that separates Russia’s client state Belarus from its nuclear-armed exclave of Kaliningrad, which is separated from mainland Russia.

If Russia were to seize that it would effectively cut off those three Baltic states by land from their Nato neighbours.

Then there is the question of tactical nuclear warheads. It has long been said that Russian military doctrine views these small but highly destructive weapons as an integral part of its order of battle.

Moscow has been warned off, by friend and foe alike, not to break the 81-year long taboo on using nuclear weapons in anger.

Yet this could still be a tempting option for Vladimir Putin to “escalate to de-escalate” by demonstrating to Ukraine that it has such catastrophic weapons at its disposal it would be better for Kyiv to capitulate to Moscow’s terms now or face annihilation.

Of course, in the absence of any clear, attributable, official confirmation from the US as to what this sudden CIA dash to Moscow was all about then it is always possible it was about something else.

That could be trying to persuade Russia to end its military cooperation with Iran, for example, or maybe about more prisoner swaps or the prospect of a mass mobilisation of Russian troops.

But make no mistake, this trip was highly unusual and it came at a time of rising tension between Moscow and the West. Something is almost certainly up.

The incident happened at 8:30am this morning (Thursday) on the B1249 at the top of Staxton Hill between Fordon Lane and North Cotes Road.

A spokesperson for North Yorkshire Police said it involved four vehicles, including an orange Kia Ceed, a blue Ford Focus, a dark grey Ford Ranger and an orange Ford Ranger.

“Four occupants were taken to hospital for minor injuries following the collision, where they are currently receiving treatment.

“A man has since been arrested following the incident.”

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Jonathan Haigh, currently 66, will have to pass an extended driving test before he is allowed to drive unsupervised again, York Magistrates Court heard.

The B1224 was closed for hours after his VW T-roc crashed into a Hyundai, driving by a woman in her 40s at Rudgate crossroads on February 23 this year.

Haigh, of D’Arcy Road, Selby, pleaded guilty to causing serious injury to the woman by careless driving.

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He was fined £480 and ordered to pay £85 prosecution costs and a £192 statutory surcharge at York Magistrates Court.

He was also banned from driving for four years from July 27 this year and ordered to take the extended driving test after the ban ends.

He attended an earlier hearing walking with the aid of a crutch and the court heard he has mental and physical health problems including arthritis.

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Read the full story here.

Floods have devastated the Nepal-Tibet border region which have destroyed towns and swept away bridges.

Hundreds of people have been reported dead and hundreds more missing.

BBC Verify has traced the path of the deadly flash flood using verified videos and satellite imagery. Merlyn Thomas reports.

Produced by Aisha Sembhi. Graphics by Mesut Ersoz. Verification by Emma Pengelly, Paul Brown, Charlotte Green, Shayan Sardarizadeh, Yi Ma and Benedict Garman.