Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) continues to face selling pressure as it tries to defend a key zone around $67,000, with bears pressing at every incline. The $65,118 support remains a focal point for downside risk, while the upside faces hurdles near $72,000 and $74,508. The longer-term picture is complicated by a pair of moving averages that traders watch closely: the 200-week simple moving average sits near $58,371, while the 200-week exponential moving average hovers around $68,065. The current positioning near the 200-week EMA has prompted some analysts to suggest that BTC may be near a bottom, even as near-term momentum remains fragile.

Analysts have pointed to long-run price action to argue that a bottom could be forming. On X, analyst Jelle observed that almost all of BTC’s significant bottoms formed within the range defined by the 200-week SMA and the 200-week EMA, and he noted that trading near the 200-week EMA might indicate that the bottoming process has begun. That view is echoed by others who study short- and mid-term cycles, suggesting that a durable bottom could be emerging even if volatility remains elevated in the near term. In tandem with this assessment, market watchers highlighted that BTC’s path remains sensitive to macro shocks and micro-structure signals as traders try to discern a durable foundation for a broader recovery.

Matrixport offered a similar read, arguing that BTC may be approaching a durable bottom as sentiment indicators flip from negative to positive. The firm noted that when its daily sentiment indicator’s 21-day moving average dips below zero and then turns upward, selling pressure tends to ease, increasing the odds of a meaningful upside attempt. While such readings do not guarantee an immediate rally, they create a frame of reference for risk-takers who seek to gauge whether sellers are drying up and buyers are growing more aggressive. The bottom line from this view is that BTC could be approaching an inflection point even if the near term still looks susceptible to downside noise.

An additional tailwind cited by a Wells Fargo analyst, Ohsung Kwon, was a potential increase in demand driven by tax refunds. In a note seen by CNBC, Kwon suggested that refunds—especially among higher-income households—could flow into equities and BTC, rekindling the so-called “YOLO” trade. The interplay between consumer liquidity and risk assets remains a critical driver of price action, and the idea that tax-related inflows could buttress a market that has struggled to sustain momentum is shaping expectations for a potential rebound.

The question on many traders’ lips is whether BTC and its leading altcoins can surmount overhead resistance and reestablish a constructive trend. The immediate challenge remains a confluence of resistance around the 20-day moving average and notable round numbers, with a potential pivot to a stronger ascent if buyers can push beyond those barriers. For BTC specifically, there is a clear roadmap: a successful push above the 20-day EMA around $72,282 and the $74,508 threshold could usher in a renewed upside, potentially opening a path to the 50-day simple moving average near $83,129. Conversely, a failure to hold above the critical $65,118 support could invite a rapid test of the next major line near $60,000, with a risk of accelerating declines if selling intensifies.

Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) has managed to keep a constructive posture above the immediate support at $1,897, suggesting that buyers are still defending the downside. The next test is the overhead zone around the 20-day EMA at $2,183. If bulls can clear that area, a more pronounced recovery could unfold toward the 50-day moving average near $2,707. A failure to hold the $1,897 floor would likely invite a renewed pullback toward the $1,750 level, with a deeper break potentially exposing the $1,537 area as a critical line in the sand for bulls to defend.

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has been trading just below the 20-day EMA around $1.52, signaling ongoing pressure from sellers but also a willingness among bulls to defend the line. A decisive move above the 20-day EMA and the $1.61 breakdown level could set XRP on a path toward the 50-day SMA near $1.80, keeping the pair within its current channel for now. A sustained move below the channel’s support could intensify selling and push XRP toward lower supports, testing the stability of the current range.

BNB (CRYPTO: BNB) has traded in a narrow range, reflecting indecision between buyers and sellers. A breakdown below the $570 support could signal a resumption of the downtrend, potentially dragging the pair toward the $500 psyche level. If buyers manage to push above the 20-day EMA around $676, the path could open to a rally toward $730 and then toward $790, where bears are expected to reassert control.

Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) continues to face resistance near the $95 mark, a level that has previously capped upside. A slip below $76 would be a warning sign that bears are reasserting themselves and could turn the $95 threshold into a new ceiling. Should buyers manage to push through the $95 level, the next target would likely be the 50-day SMA around $116, a level where selling pressure historically intensifies as traders reassess risk.

Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) has hovered just under the 20-day EMA at roughly $0.10, a pattern that suggests a potential breakout to the upside if selling pressure remains light. A sustained push above the $0.12 resistance could set DOGE on a course toward the 50-day SMA near $0.12 and beyond, potentially reaching the $0.16 level if buyers grow more aggressive. If price action fails to clear the $0.12 resistance, a consolidation range between roughly $0.08 and $0.12 could prevail for several sessions.

Bitcoin Cash (CRYPTO: BCH) has traded between its moving averages, signaling indecision about the next directional move. The 20-day EMA around $547 and the RSI’s intermediate position imply a possible upside breakout if demand strengthens, potentially pushing BCH toward $600 and then toward $630. A break below the 20-day EMA could invite a correction toward $500 as bears gain ground.

Hyperliquid (CRYPTO: HYPE) closed below the 20-day EMA recently, underscoring selling pressure at higher levels. The path of least resistance would depend on whether buyers can sustain a move above the 50-day SMA around $27.74; failing that, a slide toward the $20.82 support area could unfold. A breakout above the $32.50 barrier would be a bullish signal, potentially leading to a rally into the $38.42–$35.50 zone as momentum compresses in the near term.

Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) has held near the 20-day EMA of about $0.29, suggesting that bulls are keeping the pressure on the downside. A sustained move above the 20-day EMA could carry ADA toward the downtrend line, which has historically acted as a strong resistance. If buyers manage to pierce the downtrend, the price could advance toward $0.44 and then to $0.50. Conversely, a break below the current support could push ADA down toward the $0.15 region, underscoring the risk of a renewed downleg if buyers fail to defend critical levels.

Monero (CRYPTO: XMR) has not breached the key $360 breakdown threshold, with bulls maintaining the immediate support near $309. A sustained push above the 20-day EMA around $366 could open a path toward the 50-day SMA near $449, where bears are expected to reassert themselves. A break below $309 would suggest that bears are regaining control and could test the crucial $276 support, potentially leading to a contained range if buyers respond with resilience at that level.

XRP price moved sideways on Wednesday after the developers activated the Permissioned decentralized exchange feature.

Ripple (XRP) token traded at $1.4860, within the range it has held over the past few days. This price is much lower than the year-to-date high of $2.4160.

Ripple reached a major milestone today by activating the Permissioned DEX feature, a unique solution for companies in the financial services industry.

Unlike the popular DEX platforms such as Uniswap and Raydium, the Permissioned DEX allows institutions to participate in these ecosystems in a controlled way. In this, only restricted entities will be able to participate, a move intended to promote institutional compliance requirements.

The solution will have several use cases, including institutional trading, cross-border payments, and forex settlements. It will allow these institutions to trade assets, including XRP and Ripple USD, without exposing them to unvetted counterparties.

The permissioned DEX feature was activated a few days after the developers launched permissioned domains and token credentials. Permissioned domains serve as an on-ledger allowlist that controls who can participate in the XRP Ledger network. They are the core gating mechanism for the DEX feature.

All these features will help to provide the XRP token with more utility and increase its token burn. 

All this is happening at a time when Ripple has increased its compliance measures, which will help it to create more partnerships with institutions. It has acquired a provisional banking charter in the United States and received several licenses, including in the UK and the European Union.

XRP price technical analysis 

The daily chart shows that the XRP token has remained in a tight range in the past few days, mirroring the ongoing consolidation in the crypto industry. 

It formed a gravestone doji candlestick pattern on Sunday. This candle is characterized by a long upper shadow and a small body and is a common bearish reversal sign.

The coin has remained below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages. It has also dropped below the Ichimoku cloud indicator and the key resistance level at $1.7873, its lowest level in November and December last year.

Therefore, the most likely XRP forecast is bearish, with the initial target being the year-to-date low of $1.1215. A move below that level will signal further downside, potentially to the psychological level at $1.

OpenAI is stepping deeper into crypto security with the launch of EVMbench, a new testing framework designed to measure how well artificial intelligence can understand and potentially secure smart contracts on Ethereum and similar blockchains.

Smart contracts, self-executing code deployed on blockchains like Ethereum, underpin decentralized exchanges, lending protocols and a wide range of onchain financial applications. Because these contracts are typically immutable once deployed, vulnerabilities can be serious.

EVMbench is OpenAI’s attempt to see whether modern AI systems are up to the task of helping prevent those issues. Built in collaboration with crypto investment firm Paradigm, the benchmark draws on real-world smart contract vulnerabilities previously uncovered through audits and security competitions.

The system measures performance across three core abilities: identifying security bugs, exploiting those bugs in a controlled environment and fixing the vulnerable code without breaking the contracts.

OpenAI says the goal is to establish a clear standard for evaluating AI systems in blockchain security, especially as decentralized finance continues to secure billions of dollars in user funds. The stakes for smart contracts are only rising.

“Smart contracts routinely secure $100B+ in open-source crypto assets. As AI agents improve at reading, writing, and executing code, it becomes increasingly important to measure their capabilities in economically meaningful environments, and to encourage the use of AI systems defensively to audit and strengthen deployed contracts,” OpenAI wrote in a blog post.

Read more: Most Influential: Sam Altman

Memecore (M) jumped as much as 19% on Tuesday, Feb. 17, making it one of the crypto market’s top performers on the day – but experts aren’t sold on the token’s lofty valuation.

MemeCore, launched in 2025, is a Layer 1 blockchain designed to connect creators and communities through meme-native applications and decentralized apps (dApps). The token traded as high as $1.59 on Tuesday, but has since retraced to $1.45, down 3.5% over the past 24 hours.

The token’s market capitalization currently stands near $2.5 billion, while its fully diluted valuation is about $7.7 billion – down from $8.11 billion a day earlier, according to CoinGecko.

While the price surge signalled momentum at first glance, analysts told The Defiant it actually underscores deeper structural concerns around valuation and liquidity.

“I wouldn’t waste a single Gwei on MemeCore,” said Danny Nelson, a research analyst at Bitwise. “This token’s soaring $2 billion valuation is divorced from the reality of memecoin economics.”

He explained that across the competitive landscape, pumpfun printed $8.6 million in revenue over the past week. “It has a valuation of $800 million; meanwhile, MemeCore generated $10 in transaction fees over the same period,” Nelson said. “I don’t see how MemeCore could be worth 2.5 times as much as Pump.Fun.”

MemeCore did not respond to The Defiant’s request for comment.

This criticism also extended to the broader mechanics behind meme token rallies, according to Brian Huang, co-founder of Glider.

“It’s no surprise that Memes consistently make up the top gainers: low liquidity means traders can manipulate the price without needing large amounts of capital,” said Huang. “Compare that to trading a stock like NVDA, which would require hundreds of millions of dollars to move the price significantly.”

Huang added that meme tokens, in general, pose significant risks to retail investors. “Marketing is always highlighting winners with +10,000% gains, when in reality the vast majority of traders lose money,” he said. “As an industry, we should be focused on building products that grow the wealth of on-chain users.”

Huang also warned that many traders underestimate the competitive landscape, failing to recognize that they are trading against industrialized trading firms.

“The odds are against these traders,” Huang emphasized. “The broader problem with memes is that they conflate investing with gambling. Retail users cannot distinguish between real investable assets (like BTC, ETH, and SOL) and memes. They are all presented the same way to these users.”

The memecoin sector currently boasts a market capitalization of around $35.9 billion, down about 0.3% over the past 24 hours.

Key Takeaways

• Market Signal: Bitcoin’s decoupling from a stable Nasdaq indicates a sharp withdrawal of dollar liquidity.
• Macro Thesis: Hayes predicts AI advancements will trigger white-collar job losses, leading to consumer credit defaults.
• Critical Data: Crypto derivatives markets saw a massive $12 billion leverage washout in a single week.

Key Takeaways

• Surge: WLFI spikes 20% to trade near $0.118, eyeing a confirmed breakout above the $0.12 resistance zone.
• Whales: A fresh wallet withdrew 25 million tokens ($2.75M), signaling high-conviction buying before the event start.
• Catalyst: The sold-out Mar-a-Lago forum kicks off today with top finance and Trump Crypto figures.

In a private Florida gathering at Mar-a-Lago, lawmakers, industry executives, and crypto leaders converged to discuss the policy terrain shaping the United States’ approach to digital assets. The forum, organized by World Liberty Financial—the company led by Donald Trump’s two eldest sons—put a spotlight on how Washington plans to regulate markets, custody, and the evolving landscape of tokenized assets. In the lead-up to the event, World Liberty’s WLFI token surged more than 23%, trading around $0.12 after topping $466 million in volume over the prior 24 hours. The gathering drew co-founders Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, BitGo co-founder and CEO Mike Belshe, and CFTC Chair Michael Selig, among others, signaling a melding of political influence and entrepreneurial crypto interests.

The setting—a private club forum rather than a public hearing—did not keep the subject from the spotlight. Participants were slated to address a broad array of policy issues central to the crypto economy, from market structure and regulation to concerns about stablecoin yields and the oversight framework for digital assets. As lawmakers debate a comprehensive digital asset market structure bill, Selig is scheduled to engage with New York Stock Exchange President Lynn Martin to discuss provisions that would clarify how the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission oversee the space.

While the guest list underscored bipartisan interest in crypto policy, President Trump himself was not listed as a participant as of Wednesday morning. The event nonetheless underscored the president’s family’s ongoing entanglement with crypto ventures, a dynamic that has drawn scrutiny and speculation from observers and policymakers alike. It comes at a moment when several Democratic senators are pushing to ensure that the market structure bill includes robust safeguards around conflicts of interest for lawmakers and officials who stand to benefit from crypto industry activity while in office. The push reflects a broader debate about how to align regulatory clarity with accountability in a fast-moving sector.

The conversation happened against a broader policy backdrop. In January, the Senate Agriculture Committee—responsible for CFTC oversight—advanced its version of the market structure bill along partisan lines, with no Democrats voting in favor. Separately, the Senate Banking Committee postponed its markup after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong raised concerns about tokenized equities and decentralized finance within the bill’s framework. The tension between promoting innovation and establishing guardrails remains a central feature of the policy discourse surrounding digital assets.

Beyond policy specifics, the forum touched on a wider narrative: the growing convergence of politics and crypto finance. Media coverage has highlighted the rising fortunes tied to crypto projects associated with the Trump family; Bloomberg reporters have cited substantial revenue tied to crypto ventures since 2025. In 2019, Trump himself characterized Bitcoin as “not a fan” and described the cryptocurrency as a “scam” after stepping away from office, a stance that has since given way to a more active, albeit cautious, engagement with the asset class in various public and private channels.

Key takeaways

• World Liberty Financial’s WLFI token jumped about 23% ahead of the forum, reaching roughly $0.12 amid a 24-hour trading volume above $466 million, signaling notable market attention around the event.
• The attendee roster blended political figures with crypto executives, including Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong, BitGo’s Mike Belshe, and CFTC Chair Michael Selig, underscoring the policy-business nexus in the space.
• The gathering occurred as the US contemplates a comprehensive digital asset market structure bill; policymakers discussed how the CFTC and SEC should oversee digital assets, with Selig engaging NYSE President Lynn Martin on bill provisions.
• Democratic lawmakers are pressing for amendments to address conflicts of interest among public officials profiting from crypto, highlighting governance concerns amid bills still under consideration.
• Public narratives around Trump’s crypto involvement—contrasted with his past comments about Bitcoin—illustrate the evolving political calculus around crypto ventures and regulation.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Price impact: Positive. WLFI’s 23% surge ahead of the forum reflects market anticipation around policy developments and the profile of attendees.

Market context: The event sits within a broader regulatory debate about how the US should supervise digital assets, with ongoing discussions over market structure, stablecoin governance, and the boundaries between innovation and investor protection in a rapidly evolving space.

Why it matters

The dynamic at Mar-a-Lago illustrates how policy, politics, and market activity are increasingly interwoven in crypto. For investors, the WLFI price move signals that markets are listening to policy signals and that high-profile policy conversations can move tokenized assets and related markets in the short term. For builders and issuers, the discussions spotlight the priority of clear, implementable regulations that reduce ambiguity for product development, token structures, and custody arrangements, while preserving room for innovation.

For policymakers, the event underscores the challenge of balancing competitive US leadership in digital finance with robust safeguards. The push from some senators to tighten conflicts-of-interest provisions signals a demand for greater accountability as the sector grows more entwined with political actors and public policy. The dialogue around how to adjudicate tokenized assets, stablecoins, and prediction markets remains unsettled, but the cross-party interest in clarifying oversight points to a longer, structured path toward regulatory clarity.

In a broader sense, the gathering reflects a sector-wide trend toward closer collaboration between industry veterans and policymakers, a development that could shape the pace and direction of future legislation. The intersection of family-led business ventures, public policy, and major exchanges adds a layer of visibility that may influence investor sentiment, regulatory expectations, and the strategic decisions of market participants in the months ahead.

What to watch next

• Follow the progression of the market structure bill in the Senate, including any markup dates and committee votes.
• Track statements or amendments from lawmakers on conflicts-of-interest provisions for officials in crypto-related roles.
• Monitor updates from the CFTC and SEC on supervisory approaches to digital assets, including any new guidance on tokenized products or stablecoins.
• Observe WLFI’s trading activity and any official updates from World Liberty Financial regarding the token’s supply and use cases.
• Watch for additional disclosures from figures involved in the forum and any resulting policy white papers or draft legislation.

Sources & verification

• World Liberty Financial’s X post announcing the event and attendees: https://x.com/worldlibertyfi/status/2024129983162048855
• Democrats file amendments to crypto market structure bill: https://cointelegraph.com/news/democrats-file-amendments-crypto-market-structure
• CFTC Chair Michael Selig’s remarks on prediction markets: https://cointelegraph.com/news/cftc-michael-selig-defending-prediction-markets
• Bloomberg feature on Trump family crypto involvement: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-01-20/donald-trump-family-net-worth-increasingly-comes-from-crypto
• Trump’s past Bitcoin stance and related coverage: https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-bitcoin-u-turn-critic-became-pump-signal

Key figures and next steps: policy momentum at a private crypto forum

The gathering at Mar-a-Lago illustrates how the policy conversation has moved from abstract debate to a more concrete, event-driven engagement among policymakers, executives, and investors. As the US continues to refine its approach to market structure, custody, and the oversight of digital assets, the interplay between political action and market dynamics will likely intensify. Observers will be watching not only the outcomes of committee discussions and potential amendments but also how market participants respond to the evolving regulatory signals that emerge from such high-profile, private interlocutors.

The MicroStrategy stock started the post-President’s Day session on a weak note. MSTR closed nearly 4% lower compared to its Feb. 13 (last Friday’s) close, reflecting renewed selling pressure despite positive corporate news.

This decline comes even after Strategy, previously MicroStrategy, added more Bitcoin, lowering its average purchase cost. However, charts now show that this latest BTC average drop didn’t mean much for the immediate fate of the MSTR. A much larger downside risk is forming beneath the surface.

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MicroStrategy’s Latest Bitcoin Buy Lowers Average Cost Only Slightly

MicroStrategy recently purchased 2,486 Bitcoin at an average price of $67,710. This latest acquisition increased its total holdings from 714,644 BTC earlier this month to 717,131 BTC.

Because this purchase was made below MicroStrategy’s previous average cost, it helped lower the company’s overall Bitcoin cost basis. MicroStrategy’s average acquisition price dropped from $76,052 (early this month) to $76,027 (at press time). This represents a $25 average cost reduction.

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While this technically improves MicroStrategy’s balance sheet, the impact remains small relative to its total position.

The company still holds Bitcoin at an average cost above $76,000, which remains significantly higher than many earlier cycle acquisitions. More importantly, market indicators show that big money investors are not reacting positively, even to this development.

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Capital Flow Signals Strategy Investors Remain Cautious

One key indicator explaining investor behavior is the Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF. This metric measures whether large investors are putting money into a stock or pulling money out by combining price and volume data. When CMF stays above zero, it signals net buying pressure. When it falls toward zero or below, it shows capital inflows are weakening.

Strategy’s CMF has been trending lower and is now sitting close to the zero line, on the brink of breaking below. It is also approaching a critical ascending trendline support. This shows that despite the latest Bitcoin purchase, large investors are not aggressively accumulating the MSTR stock. Instead, capital inflows remain weak.

This lack of conviction becomes more concerning when combined with weakening momentum signals.

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Hidden Bearish Divergence Warns of Potential Major MSTR Price Correction

Momentum analysis using the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, shows a hidden bearish divergence forming. RSI measures buying and selling strength on a scale from 0 to 100 and helps identify weakening trends.

Between Dec. 9 and Feb. 13, MicroStrategy’s stock price formed a lower high, meaning the price failed to reach its previous peak. However, during the same period, RSI formed a higher high. This pattern is called hidden bearish divergence. It signals that sellers remain in control, and the downtrend is expected to continue. The MSTR stock price is down over 60% on a 6-month timeframe, highlighting the said downtrend.

This same signal appeared earlier between Dec. 9 and Jan. 14. After that divergence formed, MicroStrategy stock dropped more than 45%, falling to its recent low near $104. The appearance of a similar structure now suggests another correction could develop if selling pressure continues. But this time the correction can have similar consequences.

Bear Flag Structure Shows MSTR Stock Could Fall Much Further

MicroStrategy’s price structure now shows a bear flag pattern forming. A bear flag is a bearish continuation pattern where the price temporarily moves upward before continuing its larger downtrend. After falling sharply earlier this February, the MSTR stock rebounded. However, this rebound has remained within a rising channel that forms the flag portion of the pattern.

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MicroStrategy stock is currently trading near $128, very close to the lower boundary of this structure. If the price breaks below the $124 support level, the bear flag breakdown could begin.

Based on the height of the previous decline, this breakdown could push MicroStrategy stock toward $71, provided support levels at $104 and 86 break. This would represent a decline of more than 40% from current levels.

Recovery remains possible if buyers regain control. A move above $139 would weaken the bearish outlook, while a full recovery above $155 would invalidate the bearish structure entirely.

However, the bearish setup could also invalidate even without a sharp breakout. If the price continues rising slowly and the current channel extends beyond half of the original pole’s height, the bear flag would lose its validity. In that case, the structure would shift from a bearish continuation pattern into a broader recovery channel, reducing the immediate downside risk.

For now, MicroStrategy has successfully lowered its Bitcoin cost basis slightly. But capital flow weakness, bearish divergence, and fragile price structure all suggest that this small improvement may not be enough to prevent a larger stock correction.

Retail brokerage Robinhood announced plans to launch a fund that would give individual investors access to a basket of private companies. The initiative is positioned as an effort to address persistent imbalances in access to capital markets.

However, the structure has drawn comparisons to the initial coin offering (ICO) era. Though the fund will be regulated, it carries several material risks.

Opening Private Markets To Retail

Robinhood formally announced its Robinhood Ventures Fund I (RVI) on Tuesday, anticipating that it would go public on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in the coming weeks under the symbol RVI.

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The fund is set to offer exposure to a range of private companies, including Revolut, Oura, Ramp, Databricks, Airwallex, Mercor, and Boom. Robinhood also plans to broaden the portfolio over time, adding more private firms, including Stripe.

According to the press release, customers can request initial public offering (IPO) shares of RVI through Robinhood at $25 per share. 

Unlike many traditional private market vehicles, RVI is structured to be available to a broad range of investors without accreditation requirements or minimum investment thresholds. The fund charges a management fee but does not impose performance fees. Its shares are expected to provide daily trading liquidity, subject to market conditions.

“Opening up private markets will resolve one of the greatest longstanding inequities in capital markets today, and we’re excited to bring these opportunities to all with Robinhood Ventures Fund I,” said Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev.

However, the move has generated skepticism about the underlying risks of indirectly investing in private companies. For crypto veterans, the structure echoes a familiar dynamic seen during the ICO boom.

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Lessons From The ICO Collapse

RVI provides retail investors with exposure to private growth companies, a segment of the market historically dominated by institutional capital. The fund is an SEC-registered, exchange-listed vehicle operating within established securities laws.

However, its underlying holdings are private companies whose valuations are based on infrequent funding rounds rather than being constantly priced by the public market. The companies’ reported value may not fully reflect changing market conditions until a new funding event forces a reassessment.

RVI is also a closed-end fund, meaning investors cannot sell their shares back at a guaranteed price. Instead, shares trade on the stock exchange, where the price can rise above or fall below the actual value of the companies the fund owns. 

As a result, investors face two layers of uncertainty: the underlying private-company valuations and the market price of the fund. The use of leverage could amplify gains but also magnify losses during market stress.

Structural risks of this nature were most visible between 2017 and 2021, during the rapid expansion of ICOs.

During that boom, retail investors gained direct access to early-stage ventures, often driven by forward-looking narratives despite uncertain valuation frameworks and liquidity timelines.

By 2018, many ICO-funded projects failed to deliver viable products or sustainable revenue models. Token prices collapsed as speculative demand faded and regulators intensified scrutiny, wiping out billions and leaving retail investors with losses.

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The episode exposed weaknesses, including limited disclosure, information asymmetry, and heavy reliance on optimistic growth assumptions. While some projects evolved into legitimate networks, the broader ICO cycle became associated with valuation excesses and uneven risk distribution.

This structure does not make RVI equivalent to an ICO, but it helps explain why comparisons have emerged.

When High Valuations Limit Upside

In both cases, retail investors can access high-growth opportunities that were once largely restricted to institutions, even as transparency around valuations and exit timelines remains limited.

The key concern raised by critics is not regulatory oversight, but risk distribution. 

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When access expands without continuous price discovery or guaranteed liquidity events, investors may face prolonged capital lock-up, sudden valuation adjustments, or exposure to elevated entry prices.

Some skeptics have also pointed to the fund’s specific composition. Several of RVI’s highlighted holdings, including Stripe, Databricks, and Revolut, have recently raised capital at valuations of $140 billion, $134 billion, and $75 billion, respectively. 

Focusing on companies already valued very highly may leave less room for strong future gains. It could also increase the risk of price declines if private-market conditions weaken.

Others contend that traditional venture capital strategies often seek earlier-stage opportunities, where valuations are lower, but growth asymmetry is higher. 

In that framing, critics shift the debate from access to timing, arguing that retail investors are entering private markets after valuations have already climbed rather than before major growth takes places.

Key points:

• Bitcoin remains under pressure, and the downside might accelerate if the $65,118 level is breached.

• Several major altcoins are attempting a recovery, but the bears remain sellers on rallies.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are attempting to hold the price above $67,000, but the bears have continued to exert pressure. A positive sign for the bulls is that select analysts believe BTC may be bottoming out.

Analyst Jelle said in a post on X that all but one of BTC’s major bottoms had formed between the 200-week simple moving average ($58,371) and the 200-week exponential moving average ($68,065). BTC trading near the 200-week EMA suggests that the bottom formation process may have begun.

Similarly, Matrixport said in a post on X that BTC may be making a durable bottom. Matrixport said that when the 21-day moving average of its daily sentiment indicator dips below zero and starts to turn up, it suggests that the selling pressure is getting exhausted. Although that doesn’t rule out a decline in the near term, the readings indicate that BTC could be approaching another inflection point.

Another positive projection for BTC came from Wells Fargo analyst Ohsung Kwon. In a note seen by CNBC, Kwon said additional savings from tax refunds, mostly from high-income consumers, could flow into equities and BTC, bringing back the “YOLO” trade.

Could BTC and the major altcoins overcome the overhead resistance levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price prediction

BTC has been making higher lows in the short term, but the bulls have failed to push the price above the breakdown level of $74,508.

Buyers are likely to make another attempt to pierce the overhead resistance at the 20-day EMA ($72,282) and the $74,508 level. If they can pull it off, the BTC/USDT pair may rally to the 50-day SMA ($83,129).

Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to defend the 20-day EMA and pull the Bitcoin price below the immediate support at $65,118. If they manage to do that, the pair might tumble to solid support at $60,000.

Ether price prediction

The bulls have maintained Ether (ETH) above the immediate support at $1,897, indicating buying on dips.

Buyers will again attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at the 20-day EMA ($2,183). If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair may start a stronger recovery toward the 50-day SMA ($2,707). 

Contrarily, if the Ether price turns down and breaks below $1,897, it suggests that the bears are attempting to take charge. The pair may then drop to the critical support at $1,750. Buyers are expected to protect the $1,750 level with all their might, as a close below it may sink the pair to $1,537.

XRP price prediction

XRP (XRP) has been trading just below the 20-day EMA ($1.52), indicating that the bulls continue to exert pressure.

That improves the prospects of a break above the 20-day EMA and the breakdown level of $1.61. The XRP price may then climb to the 50-day SMA ($1.80), signaling the XRP/USDT pair may remain inside the channel for some more time.

Buyers will have to thrust the price above the downtrend line to indicate a potential short-term trend change. On the contrary, a deeper fall might begin if the price turns down and plunges below the support line.

BNB price prediction

BNB (BNB) has been trading in a narrow range for the past few days, signaling indecision between the bulls and the bears.

If the BNB price turns down and plummets below the $570 support, it indicates the resumption of the downtrend. The BNB/USDT pair may then extend the decline to the psychological level at $500.

Buyers will have to push and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA ($676) to suggest that the selling pressure is reducing. The pair may then rally to $730 and subsequently to $790.

Solana price prediction

Solana (SOL) is facing resistance near the breakdown level of $95, indicating that the bears are active at higher levels.

The bears will attempt to strengthen their position by pulling the Solana price below the $76 support. If they manage to do that, it suggests that the bears have flipped the $95 level into resistance. The pair may then retest the Feb. 6 low of $67.

Buyers will have to overcome the $95 overhead hurdle to signal a comeback. If they can pull it off, the SOL/USDT pair may ascend to the 50-day SMA ($116), where the sellers are expected to mount a strong defense. 

Dogecoin price prediction

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading just below the 20-day EMA ($0.10), indicating a lack of selling at lower levels.

That increases the likelihood of a rally above the 20-day EMA. The DOGE/USDT pair may then climb to the 50-day SMA ($0.12). Sellers will attempt to halt the recovery at the $0.12 level, but if the bulls overcome the resistance, the Dogecoin price may soar to the $0.16 level.

Instead, if the price turns down from the $0.12 resistance, it suggests a possible range formation in the near term. The pair might swing between $0.08 and $0.12 for a few days.

Bitcoin Cash price prediction

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has been stuck between the moving averages, indicating uncertainty about the next directional move.

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($547) and the RSI just above the midpoint suggest a possible upside breakout. If that happens, the Bitcoin Cash price might rally to $600 and, after that, to $630.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it signals that the bears have overpowered the bulls. That might start a correction toward the next support at $500.

Related: 4 data points suggest XRP price bottomed at $1.12: Are bulls ready to take over?

Hyperliquid price prediction

Hyperliquid (HYPE) closed below the 20-day EMA ($30.26) on Tuesday, indicating selling at higher levels.

Buyers will attempt to maintain the Hyperliquid price above the 50-day SMA ($27.74), but if the bears prevail, the HYPE/USDT pair may tumble toward the solid support at $20.82. The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a range-bound action between $20.82 and $35.50 for some time.

The first sign of strength for the bulls is a close above the $32.50 level. That opens the doors for a rally to the $35.50 to $38.42 resistance zone.

Cardano price prediction

Cardano (ADA) has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($0.29), indicating that the bulls have kept up the pressure.

The possibility of a break above the 20-day EMA remains high. If that happens, the ADA/USDT pair may climb toward the downtrend line, which is expected to act as a stiff resistance. If buyers pierce the downtrend line, the Cardano price may rally to $0.44 and then to $0.50.

Sellers will have to tug the price below the support line to regain control. If they manage to do that, the pair might slump toward $0.15.

Monero price prediction

Monero (XMR) remains below the breakdown level of $360, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not allowed the price to slip below the immediate support at $309.

Buyers will have to thrust the Monero price above the 20-day EMA ($366) to gain the upper hand. The XMR/USDT pair may then climb to the 50-day SMA ($449), where the bears are expected to step in.

On the downside, a break and close below the $309 level indicates that the bears remain in control. The pair may then retest the crucial $276 support. A strong rebound off the $276 level might result in a range-bound action for a few days.