Crypto World
Why Pi Network Coin is pumping as crypto prices remain muted
Pi Network Coin’s price is surging this month, even as the broader crypto market remains muted, with Bitcoin stuck at $67,000.
Summary
- Pi Network Coin price has rebounded by nearly 50% from its lowest level this month.
- The network will celebrate the first year anniversary of the mainnet launch on Friday.
- There are rising odds that it will be listed by Kraken, a top US exchange.
Pi Coin (PI) token jumped to a high of $0.20 on Wednesday, February 18, up by nearly 50% from its lowest level this month. This rally has brought its market capitalization to over $1.68 billion.
Pi Network is soaring as several important factors converge. First, the network will celebrate the first anniversary of its mainnet launch this Friday. As such, there is a likelihood the developers will make a major announcement to mark this occasion.
Second, there is a likelihood that Kraken, an American crypto exchange valued at over $20 billion, will list it later this year. Kraken added it to the chain section of the listing roadmap page.
A Kraken listing would be a big deal, as it would expose it to American investors, since it is now listed on exchanges like OKX, MEXC, and Gate, which have a negligible market share in the country. It would also raise the possibility of being listed by other companies, such as Binance and Coinbase.
Pi Coin’s price is soaring ahead of the first validator rewards distribution, which will occur in March this year. The risk, however, is that many of these validators may decide to sell their rewards.
Pi is also rising after developers began implementing a major network upgrade, as it transitions from Protocol 19 of the Stellar Network Consensus to Protocol 23. The first stage of the upgrade started on Sunday, and the process may continue in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, data compiled by PiScan shows that the pace of token unlocks will continue to fall over the next few months. 109 million tokens will be unlocked in the remainder of February, followed by 104 million in March, 86 million in April, and 78 million in May.
Pi Network Coin price technical analysis
The 12-hour chart shows that the Pi Network Coin price has rebounded in the past few weeks, moving from a low of $0.1300 to the current $0.1870. It has flipped the Supertrend indicator from red to green for the first time since October last year.
The coin has also jumped above the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, and is slowly forming a bullish pennant pattern. It is also hovering at the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Therefore, the coin may continue rising as bulls target the next key resistance level at $0.2055, its lowest level this month. This target aligns with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.
TLDR:
- Prediction markets show a 60% Republican Senate and 83% Democratic House probability in 2026 elections.
- The GENIUS Act, enacted in 2025, awaits full implementation within 12 to 24 months after the midterms.
- ERC20 stablecoin supply surpassed $150 billion in 2024, approaching highs last seen during the 2021 cycle.
- A divided Congress points to gradual regulatory clarity, favoring steady capital inflows over sudden market shifts.
The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are drawing close attention from crypto markets worldwide. At the center of that attention is the GENIUS Act, a landmark stablecoin law enacted in 2025.
Prediction markets currently show a 60% probability of Republican Senate control and an 83% probability of Democratic House control.
That split points to a divided Congress as the most likely outcome. For crypto markets, this political structure could determine how quickly regulatory clarity translates into capital movement.
Why the Midterm Election Outcome Matters for Stablecoin Regulation
The 2026 midterms carry direct consequences for how the GENIUS Act moves toward full implementation. Enacted in 2025, the law established the first federal framework governing stablecoins in the United States.
Full implementation is expected to arrive within 12 to 24 months following the November 2026 elections. The political composition of Congress after that vote will influence how smoothly that process unfolds.
A divided Congress, the current base case, reduces the probability of sudden or sweeping regulatory reversals. Instead, markets can expect incremental policy progress as implementation details surface over time.
This gradual approach allows institutions and traders to adjust their positioning steadily. It also lowers the risk of abrupt disruption to existing market structures built around stablecoin liquidity.
“Regulation does not follow price—it reshapes the conditions under which price forms.” — XWIN Research Japan
Broader legislative efforts, such as the CLARITY Act, face a harder path under split congressional control. Without a unified legislative majority, comprehensive digital asset market reform may move slowly.
Crypto participants should therefore expect a multi-year regulatory window rather than a single decisive moment. Each phase of implementation will carry its own market repricing effect.
The midterms will not produce an overnight transformation in crypto markets. However, they will set the regulatory tempo for the following two years.
That tempo matters enormously for institutional capital planning cycles. A stable, predictable regulatory environment consistently attracts longer-term capital commitments into digital asset markets.
Stablecoin Supply Data Points to a Liquidity Cycle Already in Motion
On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that the ERC20-based stablecoin supply has exceeded $150 billion as of 2024. That level approaches the historical highs last recorded during the 2021 market cycle.
Stablecoin supply functions as the most direct available measure of crypto market liquidity. When supply expands at this scale, it signals that capital is being staged ahead of broader risk allocation.
📊 CryptoQuant data confirms total ERC20 stablecoin supply surpassed $150 billion in 2024, nearing all-time highs.
Historical market patterns show that stablecoin supply growth has consistently preceded major bull cycles. The current supply level suggests that liquidity is already structurally present across the market.
This condition holds even as short-term volatility continues to affect crypto asset prices. Markets have historically used such periods of elevated liquidity to absorb risk before moving higher.
The combination of the GENIUS Act’s regulatory timeline and current supply data creates a specific market setup. Liquidity appears to be accumulating well ahead of the formal regulatory catalyst the midterms may deliver.
If divided government produces gradual clarity as expected, markets could reprice steadily throughout the implementation window.
That measured repricing environment tends to support sustained capital inflows rather than short-lived speculative spikes.
Ultimately, the 2026 midterms may not reshape crypto markets through legislation alone. Their larger role may be confirming the regulatory environment under which the next liquidity cycle accelerates.
The stablecoin supply structure already suggests that a foundation is forming. The election outcome will determine how quickly that foundation translates into the next market phase.
Bitcoin’s “short-term holder stress” metric has fallen to lows not seen since 2018, suggesting the market has capitulated and possibly bottomed.
A key Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain metric is flashing its most extreme capitulation signal since 2018, hinting at a potential cycle-low setup.
Bitcoin is mirroring 1,900% rally setup from 2018
Bitcoin’s short-term holder stress has dropped to its lowest level since the 2018 bear market bottom, according to new on-chain data from Checkonchain.
The Short-Term Holder (STH) Bollinger Band metric shows the oscillator falling into its deepest oversold territory in nearly eight years.
The indicator applies Bollinger Bands to the gap between Bitcoin’s spot price and the average cost basis of short-term holders, defined as wallets holding BTC for less than 155 days.
When the oscillator pierces the lower statistical band, it signals that Bitcoin is trading significantly below what recent buyers paid, beyond normal historical volatility. Historically, this signal has aligned with macro bottoms.
For instance, a similar oversold print appeared in late 2018 and preceded a roughly 150% rally within a year and 1,900% BTC price increase in three years.
It also flashed ahead of the November 2022 bottom, which preceded a 700% rally to a record high near $126,270.
Additionally, realized losses among short-term holder whales have stayed muted since Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak near $126,000, suggesting larger recent buyers haven’t capitulated yet.
Related: Traders pinpoint three price targets for Bitcoin if $70K holds as resistance
These metrics hint at seller exhaustion, aligning with the bottom outlook of multiple analysts, including those at crypto custodian platform MatrixPort.
Bitcoin may rebound by the end of March
Wells Fargo also sees a near-term liquidity tailwind building for Bitcoin.
In a note cited by CNBC, Wells Fargo strategist Ohsung Kwon said larger-than-usual US tax refunds in 2026 could revive the so-called “YOLO” trade, with as much as $150 billion potentially flowing into equities and Bitcoin by the end of March.
Such an event could absorb remaining sell pressure, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin may bottom in the coming weeks.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Crypto exchange Kraken has extended its acquisition streak by buying token management platform Magna as the company gears up for an expected public market debut.
The deal, announced Wednesday by Kraken’s parent company Payward, brings in a platform used by crypto teams to manage token vesting, claims and distributions. It currently serves over 160 clients and reported a peak total value locked (TVL) of $60 billion in 2025, according to the press release.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed.
The deal highlights Kraken’s push to become more than just a crypto exchange, expanding its offerings ahead as the firm is widely expected to go public.
Last year, it bought U.S. futures platform NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion, U.S.-licensed derivatives trading venue Small Exchange for $100 million. It also acquired proprietary trading firm Breakout and tokenized stock specialist Backed Finance, the issuer behind xStocks.
Kraken raised $800 million in November, a round that included Citadel Securities, valuing the firm at $20 billion.
Magna will continue to operate as a standalone platform, but its tools will be integrated into Kraken’s institutional-facing product suite.
Read more: Crypto exchange Kraken fires chief financial officer ahead of long-awaited IPO
Crypto World
Banking trade groups responsible for impasse on market structure bill, Brian Armstrong says
PALM BEACH, Fla. — Banking trade groups, rather than individual banks, are chiefly responsible for stalled negotiations on crypto market structure legislation, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said.
Banks themselves are looking at crypto as an opportunity, he said Wednesday at the World Liberty Forum hosted at Mar-a-Lago.
“For whatever reason, sometimes incumbent industries have trade groups, and they view the world with a zero-sum mindset [where they believe] for the banks to win, crypto has to lose,” he said. “They’re not viewing this as a positive [step].”
Banking trade groups have represented the industry in meetings with the crypto industry hosted by the White House since the Senate Banking Committee’s push to advance market structure legislation last month fell apart. The latest such meeting, which took place last week, saw the banking industry holding the line on its demands that the bill block stablecoin rewards.
The next meeting is set to take place Thursday morning, individuals familiar with the plan told CoinDesk.
Read more: Crypto’s banker adversaries didn’t want to deal in latest White House meeting on bill
Armstrong said he did expect some sort of compromise where banks would have new benefits under a fresh draft market structure bill, though he did not elaborate. When the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act stalled the night before a Senate Banking Committee hearing, it was after Armstrong publicly withdrew his company’s support.
In the current talks, the Coinbase co-founder argued that individual small and medium-sized banks did not really fear deposit flight to stablecoin issuers, but rather said their more urgent concerns were with deposit flight to larger banks.
Major banks are leaning into crypto as well, he said, adding that Coinbase is supporting crypto infrastructure for “five of the largest banks in the world.”
Other banks are hiring for blockchain or crypto-focused employees on LinkedIn.
“We now live in this world where we have regulated U.S. stablecoins with rewards,” he said. “You have to accept that as a reality and decide if you want to treat that as an opportunity or as a threat.”
Crypto World
Real estate mogul Barry Sternlicht says his firm is ready to tokenize assets, but U.S. regulation blocks it
Billionaire real estate mogul Barry Sternlicht said his firm, Starwood Capital Group, which manages over $125 billion in assets, is ready to begin tokenizing real-world assets but can’t move forward due to regulatory barriers in the United States.
“We want to do it right now and we’re ready,” Sternlicht said Wednesday at the World Liberty Forum in Palm Beach. “It’s ridiculous that our clients can’t do it in token,” he said, referring to transacting real-world assets — like real estate — using blockchain-based tokens.
Tokenization refers to converting ownership of physical assets, like real estate or art, into blockchain-based tokens that can be traded. For firms like Starwood, it could offer a new way to raise capital or give investors access to previously illiquid markets.
Putting real estate on the blockchain isn’t a new idea, and some other firms are already moving forward on a small scale to make the massive market, which still relies heavily on manual processes, more efficient.
One such firm is Propy, which laid out its plans last year for $100 million expansion to acquire mid-size property title firms across the U.S., aiming to streamline the industry processes.
In fact, consulting giant Deloitte said in a report last year that $4 trillion of real estate will be tokenized by 2035, increasing from less than US$0.3 trillion in 2024. If that becomes reality, that’s a 27% CAGR for tokenized real estate.
“Tokenized real estate could not only pave the way for new markets and products, but also give real estate organizations an opportunity to overcome challenges related to operational inefficiency, high administrative costs charged to investors, and limited retail participation,” Deloitte said.
‘It’s a fantastic thing’
Sternlicht also seems to share the vision that tokenization can revolutionize the industry by praising the massive potential of the underlying technology.
“The technology is superior,” he said. “This is the future.
He went so far as to compare the current state of tokenization to artificial intelligence, saying it is far behind where AI is today.
“This is even earlier in the physical world than AI is.” Sternlicht called tokenization “exciting as can be,” saying, “It’s a fantastic thing for the world, the world just has to catch up with it.”
Crypto dev liability fears surge after 2025 cases, as Coin Center defends BRCA protections.
Summary
- Coin Center urged the Senate Banking Committee to advance the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, warning that diluting it would chill U.S. blockchain innovation.
- The Lummis–Wyden bill clarifies that non-custodial developers and infrastructure providers are not money transmitters under federal law if they never control user assets.
- Recent convictions of Tornado Cash’s Roman Storm and Samourai Wallet’s founders for unlicensed money transmission highlight how unclear rules can expose open-source devs to prison.
Coin Center has called on the U.S. Senate Banking Committee to advance legislation that would shield cryptocurrency developers from prosecution when they do not control user funds, according to a letter sent by the advocacy group.
The organization warned that removing protections from the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act could discourage blockchain innovation in the United States, the letter stated.
Representative Tom Emmer first introduced the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act in 2018. Senators Cynthia Lummis and Ron Wyden introduced a revised version last month to clarify federal money transmitter rules, according to congressional records.
The updated bill seeks to confirm that software developers and blockchain infrastructure providers are not money transmitters if they do not take custody of customer assets. The draft has not yet been marked up or voted on by the Senate Banking Committee, according to lawmakers.
In the letter, Coin Center policy director Jason Somensatto compared blockchain developers to internet service providers and cloud hosting companies. Somensatto stated that authorities do not threaten those actors with prison when criminals misuse their systems and argued the same legal standard should apply to blockchain developers who publish code but do not manage user funds.
“This is the same type of activity conducted every day by internet service providers, cloud hosting services, router manufacturers, browser developers, and email providers,” Somensatto wrote in the letter.
The debate follows several criminal convictions of cryptocurrency developers in the United States in 2025. Courts convicted Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm and Samourai Wallet founders Keonne Rodriguez and Will Lonergan Hill of conspiring to operate an unlicensed money-transmitting business. Judges sentenced Rodriguez to five years in prison and Lonergan Hill to four years, according to court records. Storm is awaiting sentencing.
Coin Center stated that weakening the legislation could increase uncertainty for developers working in open-source software. The organization warned that some developers may choose to leave the United States if clear protections are not enacted.
Lawmakers continue to review the bill as discussions over digital asset regulation progress in Congress.
Pepe Coin price retreated this week, moving from the weekend high of $0.000005030 to the current $0.000004325.
Summary
- Pepe Coin price has formed a giant double-bottom pattern on the daily chart.
- This pattern points to a 150% surge to $0.00001080.
- Pepe’s futures open interest and volume have held steady this week.
The Pepe (PEPE) token remains well above its year-to-date low of $0.0000031, giving it a market capitalization of over $1.78 billion.
The ongoing consolidation is due to the crypto market’s price action, with Bitcoin and most altcoins remaining in a tight range.
However, on the positive side, there are signs that Pepe may be on the cusp of a strong bullish breakout, potentially to the year-to-date high of $0.000072.
Data compiled by CoinGlass show that futures open interest has continued to rise over the past few days, a sign of increased demand among traders betting on a potential rebound.
The futures open interest rose to $262 million, well above the year-to-date low of $200 million. Similarly, Pepe’s daily volume has bounced back from its lowest level this month. It stood at $435 million on Wednesday, much higher than the year-to-date low of $436 million.
Pepe’s volume was much higher than that of other top meme coins. For example, Shiba Inu had a daily volume of $114 million, while Official Trump had $152 million. The elevated volume is also a sign of demand among whale investors.
Pepe Coin price has formed a double-bottom pattern
The daily chart shows that Pepe has been in a strong downward trend since 2025 as demand for meme coins waned and most altcoins tumbled.
On the positive side, it has formed a large double-bottom pattern at $0.0000036, its lowest level in December last year and this month.
A double-bottom pattern consists of two low swings and a neckline, which in this case is at $0.0000072. The profit target is determined by first measuring the distance between the neckline and the lower side.
After that, one measures the same distance from the neckline. In this case, Pepe will likely rally to $0.000p1082, up 150% from the current level.
The bullish Pepe Coin price forecast will become invalid if it drops below the double-bottom level at $0.0000036.
Altcoins have endured a pronounced stretch of selling pressure, with net selling totaling about $209 billion since January 2025, underscoring one of the steepest declines in speculative demand this cycle. On major exchanges, activity in the altcoin space has cooled markedly; data indicates a roughly 50% drop in altcoin trading volumes on Binance since late 2025, even as Bitcoin’s presence in the order book has grown. In this environment, market participants appear to be prioritizing the flagship asset, with capital gravitating toward Bitcoin during a sustained downtrend. The shift aligns with broader trends in the crypto market, including rising reliance on dollar-denominated assets as macro headwinds persist.
Key takeaways
- Altcoin net demand, excluding the leading crypto assets, shows a cumulative delta of -$209 billion since January 2025, signaling a persistent withdrawal of spot buyers and highlighting that this metric, while informative about demand balance, does not by itself mark a market bottom.
- On Binance, altcoin spot volumes have collapsed by about 50% since November 2025, while Bitcoin’s share of total exchange volume rose to 36.8% on February 7, with altcoins slipping to 33.6% by mid-February from a peak of 59.2% in November.
- Analysts point to repeated rotations into Bitcoin during corrective phases, with Darkfost noting similar patterns in April 2025, August 2024, and October 2022, when investor capital consolidated into BTC amid drawdowns for risk assets.
- Tether dominance has climbed to an all-time-like level on a weekly basis, hovering near 8% (USDT), a condition historically associated with capital shifting into dollar-pegged assets rather than tokens like BTC or ETH. Prior cycles show that declines in this metric have sometimes preceded renewed upside for Bitcoin.
- The combination of waning altcoin demand and rising stablecoin dominance suggests a risk-off environment where traders favor BTC and stablecoins as macro uncertainties persist and the market absorbs potential regulatory and macro signals.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH, $USDT
Sentiment: Bearish
Market context: The current environment shows a clear preference for liquidity and safety over speculative bets on altcoins. With altcoin demand contracting and stablecoin dominance rising, the market signals a reduction in risk appetite as Bitcoin consolidates amid macro headwinds and evolving regulatory considerations. The shift mirrors past cycles where capital moved toward the flagship cryptocurrency as risk-off conditions intensified.
Why it matters
The observed rotation away from altcoins toward Bitcoin and stablecoins has meaningful implications for investors, developers, and market structure. For traders, the data underscores the importance of monitoring liquidity flows and the relative strength of Bitcoin during downturns, rather than simply chasing uncorrelated altcoin narratives. For ecosystem builders, sustained declines in altcoin demand could influence funding dynamics, token performance, and the pace of new project launches, as capital allocations recalibrate in a more risk-off posture. For the broader market, a prolonged shift toward BTC and dollar-pegged assets may affect liquidity distribution, derivatives pricing, and the timing of potential recoveries, making risk controls and diversification more critical in volatile environments.
The trend also emphasizes the value of watching market signals rather than price action alone. While Bitcoin’s price movements remain central to risk sentiment, the degree to which altcoins capitulate or stabilize can shape the pace and breadth of any eventual recovery. In this context, market participants are paying close attention to on-chain and exchange-level indicators, seeking any early signs that a shift in appetite could re-emerge as macro conditions evolve.
What to watch next
- Monitor the pace of altcoin net selling versus BTC-driven inflows to determine whether the current distribution begins to reverse or persists through the next leg of the cycle.
- Track USDT dominance around the 8% level and any moves away from this regime, as shifts could foreshadow changes in risk sentiment and liquidity allocation.
- Observe Bitcoin’s price and volume dynamics for signs of renewed strength or further consolidation near bear-market levels, particularly in relation to market-wide risk-off moves.
- Watch Binance and other major exchanges for changes in altcoin and BTC share of total volume, which can reveal evolving trader preferences during downturns.
- Stay alert for macro or regulatory catalysts that could alter the flow of capital between BTC, ETH, and dollar-pegged assets, potentially reshaping the near-term trajectory for altcoins.
Sources & verification
- CryptoQuant, Altcoin sell-pressure just hit a 5-year extreme — https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6994dc07312550148f4ebe22-Altcoin-sell-pressure-just-hit-a-5-year-extreme
- CryptoQuant, Altcoin volumes shrink by 50% as capital rotates back to Bitcoin — https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/69958a88c876a02133a047bb-Altcoin-volumes-shrink-by-50-as-capital-rotates-back-to-Bitcoin
- TradingView, USDT.D chart data — https://in.tradingview.com/symbols/USDT.D/
- Cointelegraph, New Bitcoin whales are trapped underwater, but for how long? — https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-bitcoin-whales-are-trapped-underwater-but-for-how-long
- Cointelegraph, Wells Fargo tax refunds YOLO trade driving Bitcoin and risk assets — https://cointelegraph.com/news/wells-fargo-tax-refunds-yolo-trade-bitcoin-stocks-150b
Altcoin demand wanes as capital rotates back to Bitcoin and stablecoins rise
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) activity began to draw a larger slice of total exchange volume as altcoins retrenched, a trend reinforced by the wider market’s risk-off posture. While the market previously witnessed heightened attention to altcoins during bullish phases, the latest data show a clear tilt away from the broader altcoin complex toward the flagship asset. The shifts in volume and demand are not only a reflection of price moves but a signal of how market participants are prioritizing liquidity and safety in uncertain times.
Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) and other altcoins have experienced a decline in both trading interest and net demand, with the combined effect being a tight supply of buyers in the spot market. This is not a simple bottom indicator; rather, it reflects a fundamental reallocation of capital, where risk-on bets in lesser-known tokens give way to a more conservative stance. The data from centralized exchanges shows a persistent exodus from altcoin markets over the past year, with the most pronounced outflows occurring in the current downcycle, as traders reassess risk and position for potential macro triggers.
At the same time, the dominance of dollar-pegged assets remains elevated. USDT, a primary stablecoin, has reached levels reminiscent of prior multi-month highs, a condition that typically accompanies a preference for liquidity and ready-to-deploy capital in times of uncertainty. The dynamic has historically been associated with a cautious stance among traders, as they seek to preserve value while awaiting clearer directional cues from macro data, regulatory updates, or shifts in market sentiment.
In this context, the market has shown a pattern of capital rotations: investors move money into Bitcoin amid broad market weakness, then re-evaluate altcoin exposure as conditions stabilize. While such rotations do not guarantee a resumption of altcoin strength, they set the stage for potential re-entry if liquidity returns and risk appetite improves. The ongoing narrative emphasizes the intertwined nature of liquidity, risk sentiment, and asset selection within the crypto market, with Bitcoin acting as a focal point for funding during downturns and stablecoins serving as a practical store of value and liquidity during periods of uncertainty.
Bitwise exec said that Aave’s governance proposal stands out as a positive development for DeFi during the crypto downturn.
Even after four months since the massive slump from a record price above $126,000, sentiment surrounding Bitcoin remains fragile. Its failure to bounce back has intensified fears about another crypto winter.
But Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, believes that decentralized finance could play a central role in leading the market out of the current bear phase, as investors increasingly focus on fundamentals such as real users, revenues, and sustainable value.
Aave at the Center
In a recent post, Hougan spoke about a governance proposal published by Aave Labs, the team behind the Aave lending protocol, titled “Aave Will Win,” as an example of why DeFi may be entering a new phase. According to Hougan, DeFi protocols like Uniswap and Aave already function as serious businesses. Uniswap, at times, handles more spot trading volume than Coinbase, while Aave generates more than $100 million annually in revenue.
Despite this, DeFi-related tokens have underperformed, largely because most were designed as governance tokens that offer voting rights but no direct claim on protocol revenues. Hougan explained that this structure emerged as a defensive response to regulatory pressure, particularly from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which used the Howey test to assess whether tokens could be classified as securities.
The Bitwise exec noted that Aave attempted to address this issue through its “Aavenomics” upgrades in 2024 and 2025, which introduced token buybacks funded by protocol fees. But tensions continued because Aave Labs could still direct some revenues to itself, a point that drew attention in December 2025 when it allocated $10 million in swap fees to the company.
The new “Aave Will Win” proposal seeks to resolve this by committing Aave Labs to route 100% of revenue from all Aave-branded products, including its website, mobile app, card, and institutional services, directly to the DAO treasury controlled by token holders. In return, Aave Labs would receive a funding package of stablecoins, Aave tokens, and milestone-based grants of around $50 million to cover development of Aave V4 and the transfer of intellectual property to the community, while a new foundation would hold the Aave brand and trademarks.
This would effectively transform the Aave token from a governance-only role toward an asset with a direct claim on revenues, while positioning the founding team as a service provider accountable to token holders, Hougan said.
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Pushback
The proposal has drawn criticism from some community members who view the funding request as excessive or argue that certain elements are bundled together. Others also point to unresolved questions around how revenue will be defined and controlled.
While deeming those concerns “legitimate,” Hougan said that Aave’s move may result in other assets following suit.
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Solana’s price is showing renewed downside risk after bearish engulfing candles rejected key resistance, with weakening market structure increasing the likelihood of testing sub-$80 support levels.
Summary
- Bearish engulfing candles confirm rejection at the key $90 resistance
- Loss of the point of control signals weakness, favoring further downside
- $78–$80 support is the critical zone, with Fibonacci and liquidity confluence
Solana (SOL) price action has shifted back into a vulnerable technical position after a failed attempt to reclaim higher resistance. What initially looked like a potential stabilization has now turned into renewed weakness, as sellers regain control after a rejection at a key resistance zone. The broader structure remains corrective, and recent candlestick behavior suggests that downside continuation is becoming increasingly likely.
As price trades back below important value levels, attention is now turning to high-timeframe support zones that could come into play in the near term. Whether these levels hold or fail will determine if Solana can stage a meaningful bounce or if the correction deepens further.
Solana price key technical points
- Bearish engulfing candles rejected $90 resistance, reinforcing seller control
- Loss of the point of control signals weakness, favoring rotation lower
- $78–$80 support zone aligns with Fibonacci confluence, acting as a key downside target
Solana recently attempted to push above the $90 resistance level, but the move failed to gain traction. Price quickly closed back below resistance, forming bearish engulfing candles that invalidated the breakout attempt. These engulfing structures are significant because they often reflect aggressive selling pressure entering the market when buyers lose control.
The rejection from resistance is further reinforced by Solana’s inability to hold above the point of control (POC). Multiple counter-trend closes below this level indicate that the market has shifted away from balance and back into bearish momentum. When price loses the POC after a failed breakout, it often signals the start of a deeper corrective rotation.
Loss of value opens path toward $78 support
With price now trading below the point of control, the next logical downside magnet is the value area low. This level defines the lower boundary of fair value within the current range and frequently acts as a target during corrective phases.
Below the value area low sits high-timeframe support around $78, which also marks the lower edge of the broader trading structure. A move into this region would place Solana below the $80 psychological level, increasing volatility as traders reassess risk.
From a technical perspective, the $78 area carries additional significance due to its alignment with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Fibonacci confluence often attracts price during corrective moves, particularly when paired with visible resting liquidity.
Liquidity sweep or deeper breakdown?
The swing low near $78 indicates an area with likely resting liquidity. Markets often dip into such zones to trigger stop-loss orders before deciding on the next directional move. If Solana quickly trades into this region and then reclaims it with strong buying interest, the move could resemble a liquidity sweep, setting the stage for a reactive bounce.
However, timing and structure will be critical. A slow grind lower, or prolonged acceptance below $78, would weaken the bounce thesis and suggest that a deeper corrective phase is unfolding. In that scenario, the market would be signaling that buyers are not yet ready to defend key support.
Broader market structure remains corrective
From a market structure standpoint, Solana has not yet invalidated its bearish bias. Lower highs remain intact, and recent attempts to reclaim resistance have failed. Without a decisive reclaim of value and strong bullish volume, rallies should continue to be treated as corrective rather than trend-changing.
The presence of bearish engulfing candles at resistance adds further weight to this view, as such patterns often precede continuation lower rather than immediate reversal.
What to expect in the coming price action
From a technical, price-action, and market-structure perspective, Solana is likely to continue rotating lower in the short term. As long as the price remains below the resistance and the point of control, the probability favors a move toward the value area, low and high-timeframe support near $78.
Traders should closely monitor price behavior around this zone. A sharp reaction and reclaim could trigger a short-term relief bounce, while sustained trading below $80 would increase the risk of a deeper correction.
Until bullish acceptance returns above key value levels, downside risks remain elevated, and Solana’s next meaningful move is likely to be defined by how the price reacts at sub-$80 support.
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