Indian equity markets enter a holiday-shortened week with the Nifty 50 at a crucial support zone after extending its losing streak to five consecutive weeks. With markets shut on Monday for Ganesh Chaturthi, Tuesday’s session will give investors their first chance to react to movements in crude oil, bond yields and expectations around the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

The Nifty ended Friday at 23,398.10, down 79.70 points, or 0.34%, while the BSE Sensex closed at 74,781.76, down 120.83 points, or 0.16%.

The Nifty touched a three-month low during the week, extending the weakness in the broader market. The Nifty Bank fell for a third consecutive week, while the Nifty Midcap index declined for the second straight week. The Nifty SmallCap index also slipped after three consecutive weeks of gains. Among sectors, Nifty Realty was the biggest loser, while healthcare and pharma were among the better-performing sectors.

Fed decision in focus

The US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and FOMC Economic Projections, due on Wednesday, September 16, at 2:00 PM EDT, or 11:30 PM IST, will be the key global trigger for markets.

Markets are pricing in a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike following the recent inflation data. The September 11 report showed headline CPI rising 0.4% month-on-month and holding at 3.4% annually. Core inflation rose 0.3% from the previous month but eased to 2.4% year-on-year.
According to Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, Founder & CEO of HST Wealth, the September 15–16 FOMC meeting will be the week’s principal global catalyst.“A rate hike accompanied by hawkish economic projections could strengthen the dollar, tighten global financial conditions and place further pressure on emerging-market equities, foreign flows and the rupee,” he said.

An unchanged policy rate, or a rate hike accompanied by balanced forward guidance, could trigger a relief rally if investors view the outcome as less restrictive than expected.

The Bank of England and Bank of Japan will also announce policy decisions during the week, adding to the focus on global monetary policy.

Also Read: Sebi proposes new CAS framework, two options for expiry-day settlement

Crude remains a key variableCrude oil has emerged as another major pressure point for Indian equities, with Brent settling at $104.61 a barrel after briefly approaching $110.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, said crude remaining above $100 a barrel amid continued hostilities and retaliatory action in West Asia remained a central factor driving sentiment.

“Crude sustaining above the USD 100 per barrel mark, on continued hostilities and retaliatory action in West Asia, remained the central variable through the week,” Nair said.

He also pointed to rising global bond yields, expectations of synchronised monetary tightening and concerns over a potential unwinding of yen-funded carry trades as factors weighing on risk appetite and emerging-market flows.

For India, a further rise in crude could add to inflationary pressures, widen the import bill, weigh on the rupee and squeeze corporate margins, Radhakrishnan said.

“Any renewed rise in crude, particularly if disruptions to Middle East oil flows intensify, could add to inflationary pressures, widen the import bill, weigh on the rupee and squeeze corporate margins,” he said.

Domestic data, including WPI inflation and trade figures, will also offer clues on how much of the external pressure is filtering through to the economy.

Defensive sectors find favour

The week saw sectoral rotation, with healthcare and pharma leading gains, while IT declined amid the higher global rate environment. Real estate corrected as rising yields and funding costs weighed on the sector.

Nair said largecaps lagged the broader market, while the relatively milder correction in mid- and small-caps helped cushion the overall weakness.

“The coming week brings a dense macro calendar, with key releases such as US and domestic inflation prints and policy decisions from both the Fed and the BoJ. These, alongside the trajectory of crude, will set the near-term direction,” Nair said.

He expects elevated energy prices, foreign outflows and geopolitical uncertainty to keep volatility high, although resilient domestic fundamentals and institutional support could attract buying at lower levels.

Nair said the near-term approach should be to book partial profits where valuations are stretched and systematic risk exposure is highest, while redeploying capital into defensive and deep-value segments.

Nifty’s 23,000-23,300 zone in focusThe Nifty’s technical structure remains fragile, according to Radhakrishnan, with the 23,000–23,300 region emerging as the key support band.

The index remains below its key daily moving averages and has repeatedly tested the 23,300 region since March without decisively breaking below it. The 23,000 level has also continued to attract buying interest.

“The market’s technical structure remains fragile,” Radhakrishnan said.

On the weekly chart, the Nifty has reached its lower Bollinger Band, while weekly RSI readings for the Nifty and Bank Nifty remain in neutral territory. This suggests the market is under pressure but has yet to reach an extreme oversold condition.

This article has been written by Kumar Gaurav, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Gaurav and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment.

U.S. stocks snapped a four-session losing streak as an interruption to the torrid run in oil prices offset a reading of higher consumer inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 509.19 points, or 0.98%, to 52573.29. The S&P 500 added 65.28 points, or 0.86%, to 7656.98 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 251.31 points, or 0.96%, to 26333.04.

Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

This is the forum for daily political discussion on Seeking Alpha. A new version is published every market day.

Please don’t leave political comments on other articles or posts on the site.

The comments below are not regulated with the same rigor as the rest of the site, and this is an ‘enter at your own risk’ area as discussion can get very heated. If you can’t stand the heat… you know what they say…

More on Today’s Markets:

Moderation Guidelines:

We remove comments under the following categories:

• Personal attacks on another user account
• Anti-Vaxxer or covid related misinformation
• Stereotyping, prejudiced or racist language about individuals or the topic under discussion.
• Inciting violence messages, encouraging hate groups and political violence.

Regardless of which side of the political divide you find yourself, please be courteous and don’t direct abuse at other users.

For any issue with regards to comments please email us at : moderation@seekingalpha.com.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

DUBAI—Saudi Arabia shut down a crucial pipeline that allowed the kingdom to continue exporting crude oil after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, saying it had been attacked multiple times by drones fired from Iraq.

The crucial East-West pipeline can carry up to 7 million barrels of crude a day 750 miles from Saudi Arabia’s oil-producing heartland on the Persian Gulf to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. From there, the Saudis had been able to ship millions of barrels of oil to customers around the world.

Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MUR either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor, and this is not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Investors are recommended to read all of the company’s filings and press releases as well as do their own research to determine if the company fits their own investment objectives and risk portfolios.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.