Bitcoin (BTC) stayed near monthly lows at Wednesday’s Wall Street open as markets awaited the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates.

Key points:

• Bitcoin continued to trade under $76,000 into the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. It stands near its lowest levels since Aug. 21.
• Markets saw nearly 93% odds of the Fed enacting a 0.25% rate hike, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75-4%.
• Onchain support thickened at $68,000 as bid liquidity moved toward the current spot price.

Fed rate-hike odds pass 90% despite Trump demands

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD trading below $76,000 after hitting new September lows of $74,960 the day prior.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The weakness occurred as the CLARITY Act failed to garner enough votes in the Senate to advance to the debate stage, falling short of the 60 required. Now, attention has turned to the Fed, as it is facing a balancing act between taming inflation and satisfying the demand of US president Donald Trump, who has repeatedly demanded that rates be cut.

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the odds of officials confirming a 0.25% rate hike at over 90% at the time of writing, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75-4%.

Fed target rate probabilities for Sept. 16 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that these odds made a rate hike a near certainty.

“In data going back to 2008, whenever expectations of a hike have been this high, the Fed has invariably delivered one. If the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged today, it would mark the biggest dovish surprise at a scheduled policy meeting since 1994,” it wrote in a post on X.

The meeting marks just one of three central-bank rate decisions this month. The European Central Bank enacted a 0.25% hike last week, while the Bank of Japan is expected to do likewise at its Friday meeting, bringing its benchmark rate to 1.25%, its highest in 31 years.

Central banks worldwide face increasing price pressures as oil supply chains battle the impact of an expanding war in the Middle East. US WTI crude oil hit $106.70 per barrel on Tuesday, its highest level since May 4.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As Cointelegraph had reported earlier, oil-price increases have had a pronounced knock-on effect on US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation.

Bitcoin price support converges around $70,000

Analyzing short-term BTC price action, onchain analytics platform Glassnode considered where BTC/USD could fall to should it deviate further from its local range, which has been in place since Aug. 21.

Related: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium hits monthly low as CLARITY Act vote squeezes US demand

“Resting bids, the buy orders waiting in the book, have pulled in toward price. Nearly two thirds of the bids resting within 20% of price now sit between 1% and 10% below it, up from about half at the start of the year,” it reported in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain.

Bitcoin spot-market order-book depth data. Source: Glassnode

Exchange order-book bid liquidity points to $68,000 as the next line of support. Price currently sits just below the True Market Mean, the aggregate cost basis of the currently active BTC supply. The aggregate cost basis of short-term holders, defined as wallets holding an unspent transaction output (UTXO) for less than six months, provides another potential support level at $71,300.

“If the range breaks and those bids are used up, the next floor is the on-chain one at $62K to $65K, where the heaviest block of supply below the market was last bought,” Glassnode added, referring to the price at which around 9% of the supply last moved onchain.

Anchorage Digital Bank, the first federally chartered crypto bank in the US, has added custody support for Etherlink and seven assets on the Tezos layer-2 network, including xU3O8, a token representing physical uranium.

The other supported assets include wrapped XTZ (WXTZ), liquid staking token stXTZ, stablecoins USDT, USDC and USDSM, and wrapped Ether (WETH), according to an announcement shared with Cointelegraph.

The integration allows Anchorage’s institutional clients to custody assets issued on Etherlink, an Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible layer-2 network that settles on Tezos, through segregated accounts at the federally chartered bank.

xU3O8 represents ownership of physical uranium, giving investors exposure to the commodity without directly handling or storing it. At current price levels, it has a market cap just above $9 million, CoinMarketCap data shows.

xU308 markets. Source: CoinMarketCap

Anchorage is not the first institutional custodian to support xU3O8. In August 2025, digital asset custodian Hex Trust integrated Etherlink to offer custody for xU3O8 and other assets issued on the network.

Physical uranium exposure has traditionally involved specialist intermediaries, lengthy settlement periods and relatively high minimum investment sizes, according to Anchorage. The company said tokenization allows the commodity to be transferred and settled in minutes rather than weeks.

Magazine: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium hits monthly low as CLARITY Act vote squeezes US demand

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Crypto-linked equities slid again after the U.S. Senate failed to move forward the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act through a key procedural vote, leaving the bill’s timeline in serious doubt. According to Yahoo Finance data cited in coverage, shares of Coinbase, Circle, and Strategy continued to trade lower into Wednesday.

While the selloff affected multiple parts of the crypto market, Saxo Bank said the impact is not uniform—exchange operators like Coinbase face a more direct regulatory exposure because market-structure rules can shape registration requirements, eligible assets, and who is allowed to participate in U.S. crypto markets.

Key takeaways

• Saxo Bank highlighted Coinbase as the most directly exposed company to CLARITY because market-structure provisions could determine its core trading operating model in the U.S.
• Circle’s exposure is more closely tied to U.S. stablecoin adoption and earnings from reserves, while Strategy’s performance depends primarily on its Bitcoin holdings and financing.
• The CLARITY Act failed a procedural vote on Tuesday (49-50), falling short of the 60 votes required to advance.
• Ethics provisions remained a major sticking point even after last-minute concessions.
• The Senate’s limited remaining calendar before the Nov. 3 midterm elections and Dec. 18 adjournment creates a narrow window for any revival of the legislation this year.

Why the bill matters more for exchanges

In a Wednesday note, Saxo strategist Ruben Dalfovo argued that exchanges may be more vulnerable to CLARITY’s final shape than other crypto-linked businesses. The reason is straightforward: if Congress adopts “market-structure” rules, those provisions can influence whether firms must register in particular ways, what assets can be traded, and the conditions under which investors and participants can access U.S. crypto markets.

“Coinbase is most exposed to clearer market rules because trading and crypto participation directly affect its business,” Dalfovo wrote.

That distinction is important for investors trying to parse a sector-wide move after procedural legislative setbacks. Even though the same headline—CLARITY failing to advance—hit crypto stocks broadly, Saxo’s framework suggests the regulatory “transmission mechanism” differs by business model.

Different exposures across Coinbase, Circle, and Strategy

Saxo’s note separated the companies into different regulatory sensitivities.

Circle’s business, Dalfovo said, is more tightly linked to adoption of its U.S. dollar stablecoin, USDC. The firm’s revenue dynamics are also connected to interest earned on its reserves—so stablecoin-related policy developments and the broader environment for regulated stablecoins may matter more for Circle than exchange-specific rules.

For Strategy, Saxo described exposure as primarily driven by its Bitcoin holdings and financing structure. In other words, the company’s near-term performance is less about trading-market participation rules and more about its capital structure and BTC exposure.

Despite these differing exposures, the market still reacted as a group. Cointelegraph reported that shares of the three companies fell between 5% and 10% after the Senate procedural vote, even though the potential implications for each business are not identical. Early Wednesday trading continued the pressure, with Coinbase, Circle, and Strategy down between 2% and 6% according to Yahoo Finance data.

The procedural defeat and the ethics hurdle

CLARITY’s setback came on Tuesday when senators voted 49-50 against invoking cloture on a motion to proceed. That procedural step is often crucial because it limits further debate and allows a bill to move toward consideration on the Senate floor. In this case, it fell far short of the 60 votes needed.

According to the reporting referenced in the article, ethics provisions remained a major sticking point. Even with last-minute concessions aimed at addressing concerns over public officials’ crypto-related interests, lawmakers did not reach consensus sufficient to move the bill forward.

This matters because procedural votes are frequently treated by markets as a signal about whether legislative momentum exists. When cloture fails, the practical likelihood of reaching a final vote can drop sharply—especially in a shorter session with competing priorities.

Narrow time window in the Senate

The failure also significantly narrows the bill’s prospects for the rest of this Congress. The Senate has a limited legislative calendar around the Nov. 3 midterm elections and is targeting Dec. 18 for adjournment, which leaves fewer opportunities to revive the bill and schedule additional votes before the current term ends.

In practical terms, that creates uncertainty for firms and investors that have been watching CLARITY as a potential source of clarity. The bill is not just “on or off” but may effectively move into a delayed or uncertain future depending on whether new negotiations can overcome the ethics concerns.

For exchange operators in particular, the stakes are tightly linked to how market-structure rules ultimately land—because those rules can determine operating requirements and trading scope. For stablecoin issuers, the policy pathway may be more about adoption and reserve treatment, while for Bitcoin treasury companies the key variable remains the interplay between crypto regulation and their BTC-focused strategies.

Going forward, traders and investors will likely watch whether CLARITY returns to the agenda before the end-of-year deadline, and whether the Senate can reach a workable compromise on the ethics language that stalled the cloture vote.

Russian spies are using Telegram and crypto to entice teenagers and young adults across Europe to carry out acts of sabotage and violence.

That’s according to a study released by the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) and shared with the i Paper. 

The study revealed that Russian actors are targeting teenagers and young adults via a network of Telegram groups called “com networks” in which participants compete for clout by uploading harmful content.

I Paper discovered two clips shared in these groups took place in the UK. In one instance, someone filmed themselves smashing a car that belonged to a care worker. 

Read more: Russia offered crypto to firebomb Sir Keir Starmer’s home, report

Another showed what appears to be the same person throwing a brick through the window of a house.

One week after these incidents, Ukrainian police arrested two young boys, aged 11 and 15, who were allegedly planning to attack their school with guns and explosives “on the orders of the Russian Federation.”

The Security Service of Ukraine described these incidents as a Russian intelligence operation.

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According to the ISD, there are “multiple indicators suggesting possible Russian state-linked support” for parts of the network, and organizers “mirror established Russian methods for recruiting ‘disposable agents’ for violence abroad.”

The study’s author, Steven Rai, claims they’ve seen the Russia-linked Telegram chats offer crypto for arson attacks, and that these payments within the com networks are “completely new.” 

An all-encompassing umbrella group made up of a collection of these Telegram networks claims it wants to bring participants of different views together with “one goal” to cause chaos. 

One part of this collective claims to be allied with Direct Action, a Russian-manufactured far-right group that organised the fire bombing of former UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s house.

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In this case, thousands of dollars worth of the stablecoin USDT was reportedly offered to a 22-year-old Ukrainian in return for carrying out the attacks in the hopes of attracting press coverage. 

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Less than 24 hours after the collapse of the crypto industry’s market structure bill, the tax committee in the U.S. House of Representatives has advanced another important industry effort that would clarify crypto tax treatment and ease burdens on casual transactions.

At a Wednesday hearing known as a markup, in which a committee evaluates a bill and considers changes before deciding whether to advance it to the wider chamber of lawmakers, the panel voted 38-5 to endorse the bill and forward it to the rest of the House, signalling massive bipartisan support for the measure.

The Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act, revealed earlier this week by the House Ways and Means Committee, would provide crypto users long-awaited answers on what are known as “de minimis” transactions, or small, routine payments, which currently trigger difficult tax accounting. The legislation also addresses how crypto income would be recognized for tax purposes, transfers, wash sale rules, mining, staking and requirements for brokers, and it generally seeks to ensure that digital assets get similar treatment as other assets.

The product launches with more than $40 million of leases committed, the firm said. Initially available in beta, thSLVR will be offered to institutions and whitelisted investors, with broader access planned later.

Tokenized silver remains a considerably smaller market than tokenized gold, which has grown to several billion dollars across multiple products. Existing silver tokens that offer returns typically distribute a portion of platform trading fees rather than income earned by lending the underlying metal.

Tokenized commodities

The tokenized real-world asset market has expanded rapidly beyond U.S. Treasuries and private credit into equities, funds and commodities. Tokenized commodities now represent about $4.9 billion in distributed value across 130 products, led by gold-backed tokens from Tether and Paxos, while the number of commodity-token holders rose 13% over the past month to almost 339,000, according to RWA.xyz

Silver leasing rates can rise sharply during periods of limited physical availability. Around 83% of the silver held in London vaults is locked in physically backed investment products, leaving about 136 million ounces available for trading and leasing, according to data cited by Theo.

London’s one-month silver lease rate briefly climbed to about 39% in October 2025, compared with a historical norm below 1%. Rates have since normalized, though the market is projected to record a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2026, with the shortfall estimated at 46.3 million ounces.

5) Thermocap multiple: The thermocap multiple is a measure like price to book that compares bitcoin’s market capitalization to the cumulative dollar value ever paid to miners, with each coin valued at its market price when it was mined. Prior crypto winters ended at single-digit multiples, but this cycle it only declined to 13 times, according to Glassnode data as of June 30, 2026. These levels are not a guarantee of future price action.

6) Price action: A 50% rally from the low has historically coincided with prior market troughs, although no such relationship guarantees future outcomes.

Once the next cycle does begin, we expect two key debates to persist throughout:

Will bitcoin reach a new high before the next halving? During both the 2012 to 2016 cycle and the 2016 to 2020 cycle, bitcoin did not surpass its prior cycle high until after the halving. However, in the 2024 cycle, bitcoin surpassed the 2021 high one month before the April 2024 halving, according to Bloomberg data.

Has AI replaced crypto as the market’s leading speculative/disruptive-technology narrative? In 2020 and 2021, crypto was one of the clearest expressions of a high-liquidity, disruptive-technology market. Since 2024, however, AI has become the dominant growth story.