The Bank of Korea has launched its first 24-hour won settlement network pilot, allowing foreign investors to settle Korean currency transactions outside the country’s conventional banking hours.

The Bank of Korea said in its September 21 announcement that the Bank of Korea Won International Wire Network began trial operations on Monday as part of South Korea’s plan to improve offshore access to the won. The pilot started at 9 a.m. with KB Kookmin Bank, Woori Bank, Hana Bank and Shinhan Bank participating.

Full operation is scheduled for January 2027, when foreign banks are expected to join the network. The system will operate continuously from 9 a.m. on one business day until 9 a.m. the next, while weekends and public holidays remain excluded.

Bank of Korea network lets foreigners settle won offshore

Foreign investors using the new system can settle won transactions through accounts held with Registered Foreign Institutions for KRW Business, known as RFI-Ks. They do not need to open a separate account directly with a domestic Korean financial institution to use the settlement network.

Revised foreign-exchange rules published days before the pilot allow registered foreign institutions to open omnibus accounts at Korean foreign-exchange banks and process won settlement through the Bank of Korea network. The Finance Ministry said the changes form part of the government’s plan to make offshore won transactions less dependent on time and location.

Under the model, an overseas investor can hold or transact won through a registered institution in its home market while the underlying settlement is completed through the central-bank infrastructure. The Korean authorities introduced RFI-K access as part of changes designed to make the domestic foreign-exchange market more accessible to international participants.

The BOK said “the network is expected to improve foreigners’ access to won settlement infrastructure, eventually enhancing the currency’s international standing.” The statement represents the central bank’s policy expectation for the system, not a measured outcome from the pilot.

Four banks begin pilot with 1.4 billion won test

KB Kookmin, Woori, Hana and Shinhan are the first banks participating in the trial phase. South Korea plans to bring foreign financial institutions into the network after the January launch, following roughly three months of testing.

The first reported test transaction took place at around 9:30 a.m. Monday between two participating domestic institutions. SBS reported that the payment was worth approximately 1.4 billion won, equivalent to roughly $1 million at current exchange rates.

The BOK described the platform as its first settlement network designed to operate around the clock on business days. Existing Bank of Korea payment infrastructure has traditionally followed domestic operating hours, while the new service is structured around the working hours of overseas investors.

During the pilot, the central bank plans to monitor the system while making operational and technical changes before the January rollout. The BOK said it intends to improve the network, expand participating institutions and maintain continuous monitoring as full operation approaches.

January launch fits Korea’s won internationalization plan

The settlement system is one part of South Korea’s larger Won Internationalization Roadmap, published by the Finance Ministry with the Bank of Korea and other agencies in July. The roadmap calls for round-the-clock foreign-exchange access, offshore won accounts, easier capital transactions and settlement infrastructure available outside Korea.

South Korea had already moved its domestic foreign-exchange market toward 24-hour trading before the settlement pilot started. The new network addresses the payment side of that policy by allowing offshore participants to complete transactions during their own local business hours instead of waiting for Korean banks to reopen.

The roadmap permits foreigners to conduct won transactions through overseas institutions registered with Korean authorities. Government documents describe examples in which investors could use won accounts at overseas branches of global banks for Korean bond investments, remittances and other financial services.

The authorities are pairing easier access with liquidity and monitoring measures. The roadmap says domestic banks can provide temporary won funding when overseas institutions face shortages, while the government and central bank may provide further liquidity when necessary. Regulators plan to monitor offshore won conditions as international use expands.

The BOK had outlined the network’s September pilot schedule in July, when it confirmed the four participating banks and said full 24-hour operation would begin in January. At the time, the central bank said the project could improve access to Korean settlement infrastructure and support South Korea’s efforts to attract more international investment.

Project Agorá and Hangang test tokenized settlement separately

The new international wire network does not use the same structure as the Bank of Korea’s blockchain-based digital-money projects. The BOK has been developing separate tokenized settlement infrastructure through Project Hangang and the Bank for International Settlements-led Project Agorá.

In July, the Bank of Korea completed live cross-border payment tests under Project Agorá using tokenized central-bank reserves across multiple currencies. As crypto.news previously reported, South Korean banks tested settlement workflows that included a 20 million won transfer between NongHyup Bank and Shinhan Bank using tokenized reserve funds.

The trial connected Project Hangang with the Agorá environment to test how tokenized central-bank money and commercial-bank deposits could interact in cross-border payments. The BOK said further test scenarios would follow as Project Agorá expanded its real-value transaction work.

Project Hangang has developed along a separate domestic path. As crypto.news reported in March, the second phase expanded participation from seven banks to nine and introduced deposit-token features including peer-to-peer transfers, biometric approvals and government subsidy payments.

Government agencies later began a 9.6 billion won program to connect deposit tokens with existing payment infrastructure. In related crypto.news coverage, the project brought together nine banks, eight payment companies and two large merchants to test how deposit tokens could work with existing retail payment systems.

The Bank of Korea’s latest payment systems report, published Sept. 17, said the institution had extended BOK-Wire+ operating hours, built the new international won network and adopted ISO 20022 as part of efforts to strengthen cross-border connectivity. The report said the central bank was simultaneously studying virtual assets, won-based stablecoins and tokenized settlement systems.

Project Hangang remains based on a wholesale central-bank digital currency used beneath commercial-bank deposit tokens, not a retail CBDC issued directly to consumers. The second phase has expanded to nine participating banks while testing transfers, payments and government-linked use cases.

ZetaChain tokenholders have approved a plan to wind down the project’s layer-1 blockchain and migrate its native ZETA token to Solana. 

Governance proposal 68 passed Sunday with 99.4% support and 58% participation, exceeding the network’s 40% quorum requirement. Under the proposal, ZETA will become an SPL token on Solana through a 1:1 conversion, with the same ticker and total supply. 

According to the proposal, the vote does not immediately trigger ZetaChain’s shutdown or migration. Core contributors will submit a second proposal detailing the withdrawal window for assets linked to other blockchains, snapshot block height, shutdown timetable, token claim process and exchange conversion period. Validators will continue operating and staking rewards will continue during the transition.

ZetaChain said running its own Cosmos SDK-based layer 1 no longer supports its focus on Anuma, its private-focused artificial intelligence application. The project said moving to Solana would allow it to redirect resources from blockchain maintenance to Anuma and its Private Memory Layer, which lets users carry encrypted context across AI models.

ZetaChain was founded in 2021 as an interoperability-focused project designed to connect assets and data across different blockchains. In 2023, it raised $27 million from investors including Blockchain.com, Jane Street Capital, Human Capital and Sky9 Capital to develop its layer-1 network.

Crypto projects wind down standalone chains 

Other projects, including BounceBit and Harmony, have also announced plans to shut down their standalone blockchains.

In August, BounceBit opted to retire its standalone blockchain after an authorization flaw was exploited to steal about $3 million in BB tokens. The project migrated its token to BNB Smart Chain at a 1:1 ratio instead of restarting its layer 1. 

On Sept. 6, Harmony proposed shutting down its layer-1 and migrating its native ONE token to Ethereum as an ERC-20, as part of a proposed pivot to an AI video initiative. The proposal came weeks after an exploit created unauthorized ONE tokens and led Harmony to plan a rollback of more than 109,000 transactions. 

Related: Solana sees record 263K tokens issued in a single day

ZetaChain also suffered a $334,000 exploit in April targeting its cross-chain gateway contract, which drained funds from ZetaChain-controlled wallets across Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base and BNB Smart Chain. 

The project later acknowledged that it had dismissed an earlier bug bounty report about the vulnerability as intended behavior, prompting a review of its security processes.

Magazine: Who needs CLARITY anyway? ARB could see 70X increase: Hodler’s Digest

Bitcoin has traded just above $81,000 on Monday, extending its recovery from last week’s drop below $76,000 as regulatory developments, renewed ETF demand and upcoming U.S. macro events shape the next test for the market.

Market data showed BTC rising less than 1% over 24 hours during Asian trading on Sept. 21. The price has held above $80,000 after reclaiming the level late last week, when buyers returned following two sessions of heavy selling.

The recovery began as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission opened a regulatory route for qualifying tokenized U.S. stocks on Sept. 17. The SEC decision did not directly attribute any move in Bitcoin to the announcement, though the exemption coincided with improving sentiment across digital assets. The SEC said eligible tokenized securities venues can operate under temporary conditional relief while the agency considers longer-term rules.

Bitcoin rebounds as regulatory sentiment improves

Bitcoin fell below $76,000 during the middle of last week before recovering above $77,000 on Sept. 17 and then breaking through $80,000 around Sept. 18.

The SEC’s Innovation Exemption arrived during that rebound. The framework gives qualifying venues five years of conditional relief to trade certain tokenized National Market System stocks through permissioned automated market makers and liquidity pools. Token holders must receive the same legal and economic rights as owners of the underlying traditional shares.

Issuers retain the ability to object to unaffiliated platforms tokenizing their securities, while smart contracts used by qualifying venues must remain publicly auditable.

As crypto.news reported, the SEC order establishes a five-year pathway while maintaining limits on qualifying securities, venue operations and trading activity.

Bitcoin’s latest move has followed that regulatory development, though price action has remained below the resistance area that stopped the market around $82,000 during the weekend.

Bitcoin ETF demand returned after $746M of withdrawals

Institutional fund flows produced another major swing for Bitcoin last week.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $159.9 million in net inflows on Sept. 14 before investors withdrew $450.4 million on Sept. 15 and another $295.9 million the following day.

Combined withdrawals across Sept. 15 and Sept. 16 reached roughly $746.3 million, coinciding with Bitcoin’s decline toward the mid-$75,000 area.

Demand returned later in the week. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $159.5 million on Sept. 17 before inflows accelerated to around $433 million on Sept. 18.

Fidelity’s FBTC led Friday’s rebound with $310.7 million, while BlackRock’s IBIT added $108.4 million. Across the full five trading sessions, the funds finished with approximately $6.2 million in net inflows.

Crypto.news reported that Bitcoin ETFs ended the week slightly positive while U.S. spot Ether funds recorded approximately $140.6 million of net withdrawals.

The timing of the flows closely tracked Bitcoin’s volatile week, though ETF subscriptions and redemptions alone do not establish the cause of individual price moves.

Bitcoin momentum stays positive below overbought territory

Bitcoin’s current technical indicators show improving momentum without an overbought reading.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index stands at 59.96, above its moving average of 57.35. The RSI remains below the 70 level, commonly used to identify overbought conditions.

The reading places Bitcoin in neutral-to-bullish territory after the rebound from below $76,000. RSI holding above its own moving average shows momentum has strengthened during the recovery.

MACD gives a similar signal. The MACD line sits near 193.33, while the signal line stands at approximately 143.26, producing a positive histogram close to 50.07.

A positive MACD histogram indicates short-term upward momentum remains intact, although BTC still faces resistance before the rally can extend materially.

Bitcoin is now approaching the $81,700-$82,000 resistance zone, where selling pressure appeared during the weekend. A sustained move above the area would place the market beyond its latest local rejection.

On the downside, $80,000 remains the first level to watch. Losing that psychological threshold could bring the $79,000 area back into play, while a deeper reversal would put the recent breakout structure under pressure.

Fed speakers and PMI data could move Bitcoin this week

Monetary policy remains one of Bitcoin’s main macro variables after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest-rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16.

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the increase unanimously. In its policy statement, the Fed said economic activity continued expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained elevated.

There is no rate decision scheduled this week, but several Fed officials are due to speak. Investors will monitor their comments for clues about whether September’s increase was an isolated move or part of a longer tightening sequence.

Federal Reserve projections released with the September meeting indicated policymakers still see room for another increase during 2026, though future decisions remain dependent on incoming economic data.

Wednesday brings an important data point.

S&P Global is scheduled to publish preliminary September U.S. manufacturing, services and composite purchasing managers’ indexes at 9:45 a.m. ET on Sept. 23.

August’s flash report showed manufacturing at 53.9 and services at 56.5, both above the 50 level separating expansion from contraction.

Stronger September numbers could support expectations that the U.S. economy can tolerate tighter monetary policy. Weaker readings could revive debate about how far the Fed can continue raising rates.

Trump-Xi meeting adds another market catalyst

Thursday will turn attention toward U.S.-China relations as President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet.

Reuters reported that trade, tariffs, investment, export controls and technology restrictions are expected to feature in the discussions. Markets will be watching for either an extension of the current trade truce or renewed friction between the two governments.

The existing tariff arrangement is due to expire in November, making Thursday’s meeting relevant for equities, currencies and other risk assets that have reacted to changes in U.S.-China trade policy.

Ahead of the talks, Reuters reported that the Chinese yuan strengthened to its highest level against the dollar in more than three years, while the U.S. dollar index traded around 100.23.

Crypto markets were broadly higher alongside Bitcoin on Monday. NEAR led major tokens with a roughly 23% gain to above $4, supported by increased activity through NEAR Intents and rising ZEC swap traffic. ZEC gained around 3% to above $1,500, while BNB, Ether and HYPE advanced close to 2%. XRP, DOGE, SOL and TRX posted gains of roughly 1% or less.

The Bank of Russia has proposed capping banks’ total risk from cryptocurrencies and foreign digital instruments at 1% of their capital as it sets prudential limits for lenders entering the country’s newly regulated crypto market.

According to the Bank of Russia, the draft regulation would introduce two maximum risk ratios, N31 for individual credit institutions and N32 for banking groups on a consolidated basis. Both would be limited to 1% of the institution or group’s own funds.

The rules would cover more than direct cryptocurrency holdings. Loans, derivatives, bonds, repo transactions, guarantees, credit lines and other financial instruments whose payments or value depend on cryptocurrencies or foreign digital instruments can fall within the calculation.

Banks would have to remain within the 1% ceiling on every operating day, while a breach on any such day would count as noncompliance. The draft gives the central bank authority to take measures against an institution if breaches occur on six or more operating days within any 30 consecutive operating days.

Bank of Russia crypto rules separate assets by risk

The proposed framework divides crypto related transactions into two groups based partly on sanctions and physical liquidity risks, determining how banks can account for long and short positions.

Group 1 includes certain exchange traded cash settled derivatives, qualifying over the counter derivatives and instruments involving counterparties that meet specified credit standards. Some transactions with cryptocurrency miners can qualify under conditions tied to their income from digital asset sales.

Deliverable derivatives and some loans, credit lines, guarantees, repo transactions and bonds can fall into the lower risk group when settlement is available in rubles or currencies of countries Russia does not classify as unfriendly.

For qualifying assets with lower freezing and physical liquidity risks, banks would be permitted to offset opposing long and short positions when calculating exposure. The draft applies discounts when maturities differ, starting at 5% and rising with the gap between the positions. A maturity mismatch of 37 months or more carries an 85% coefficient.

Group 2 captures direct investments in cryptocurrencies and foreign digital instruments, loans settled exclusively with such assets, certain repo transactions and derivatives that do not qualify for Group 1. Other crypto related transactions not included in the first category would fall into Group 2 as well.

The central bank would calculate Group 2 exposure using the larger of a bank’s long or short position in each asset, preventing institutions from fully offsetting the two sides for purposes of the risk limit.

Banks face a 1,250% crypto risk weight

Capital treatment under the proposal would impose a 1,250% risk weight on a bank’s aggregate crypto exposure and certain client positions for which the institution assumes responsibility.

The Bank of Russia said client assets for which a digital depository is responsible for losses arising from seizure or restrictions linked to sanctions risk would be included in the relevant risk calculation. Client positions where the bank does not bear that responsibility would be excluded from the N31 and N32 limits and instead receive a 50% risk weight for capital adequacy purposes.

Cryptocurrencies and foreign digital instruments could not be counted as collateral when banks calculate provisions for possible losses. Derivatives tied to crypto or foreign digital instruments would carry a 36% risk factor under the proposed framework.

The regulator plans to introduce reporting for turnover in the covered instruments and the N31 and N32 ratios from January 2027, with detailed reporting forms still under development. The regulation is expected to be officially published in the fourth quarter of 2026 and would take effect 10 days after publication.

Russia sets bank limits after regulated crypto market opens

The prudential proposal arrives weeks after Russia’s regulated cryptocurrency framework took effect on Sept. 1, bringing trading, custody and cross border crypto transactions under a formal system overseen by the Bank of Russia.

As crypto.news previously reported, nonqualified investors can purchase eligible liquid cryptocurrencies worth up to 300,000 rubles per year through each intermediary after passing a suitability test. Qualified investors can trade without the same purchase ceiling, although testing requirements still apply.

The Bank of Russia had already started preparing operating requirements for the institutions expected to serve the market. Draft rules published in July set out requirements for crypto exchanges and depositories, including registration and capital provisions for companies handling digital assets.

Russian banks have meanwhile been preparing their own infrastructure. Sberbank has set a Dec. 1 target to launch crypto trading infrastructure covering trading, custody, settlement and digital depository services for eligible customers.

Alfa Bank has been testing cryptocurrency trading through its Alfa Investments brokerage application with a limited group of qualified investors. The lender has said a larger rollout depends on the completion of the regulatory framework and has plans to establish its own digital depository.

Regulatory scrutiny has continued alongside the market rollout. On Sept. 15, the Bank of Russia identified cryptocurrencies and stablecoins as a financial market risk, citing concerns that digital assets could be used as substitutes for the ruble and reiterating the possibility of complete investment losses. The regulator’s risk assessment came as Russia continued implementing rules for licensed crypto operators and digital asset custody.

Vietnam has said its first crypto asset service providers are expected to receive licenses and begin operations in 2026 as regulators build a supervision system around the country’s five year digital asset market pilot.

According to the State Securities Commission of Vietnam, Deputy Minister of Finance Nguyen Duc Chi gave the timeline during a Sept. 15 meeting with Austrian Financial Market Authority Executive Director Mariana Kühnel in Vienna, where officials discussed financial market oversight and future cooperation.

Chi said Vietnam has established a pilot legal framework for crypto assets, while regulators are working on the rules needed to supervise companies and investor activity once licensed platforms start operating. The discussions with Austria focused partly on how financial authorities can adapt oversight to technological developments and new types of assets.

The licensing plan has moved forward during 2026. Five companies have already passed an initial assessment under the pilot, although none had received a final exchange license as of Aug. 30. Passing the assessment does not authorize a company to operate a crypto trading platform.

Vietnam crypto licenses remain under review

Vietnam formally opened its licensing process in January, when the Ministry of Finance introduced administrative procedures covering the issuance, adjustment and revocation of licenses for crypto asset trading platforms.

As crypto.news previously reported, applicants must be Vietnamese enterprises with at least 10 trillion dong, roughly $383 million, in paid in charter capital. At least 65% of the capital must come from institutional shareholders, while companies must meet requirements covering governance, staffing, infrastructure and cybersecurity.

Foreign investors cannot own more than 49% of an exchange under the pilot. More than 35% of an applicant’s capital must come from at least two qualifying organizations such as commercial banks, securities companies, fund managers, insurers or technology companies.

Several financial groups have prepared businesses for the regulated market. VPBank linked CAEX secured backing from OKX Ventures and HashKey Capital in April as it worked toward the capital requirements for a license. CAEX’s pilot application involves VPBank Securities and LynkiD alongside the two investors.

SSI Digital Technology has pursued a separate route, signing an agreement with South Korean exchange Bithumb to explore a local digital asset exchange business. Their planned cooperation covers technology, wallets, custody, security, risk controls and compliance, while any exchange operation remains subject to Vietnamese approval.

In May, Chi said the country’s first official regulated crypto market activity could begin as early as the third quarter of 2026. Affiliates of Techcombank, VPBank and LPBank, along with VIX Securities and Sun Group, were among companies reported to have moved through initial screening. Five firms entered the licensing process, although authorities had not issued their first final license at the end of August.

FATF recommendations shape Vietnam crypto supervision

Alongside licensing, the State Securities Commission is developing a mechanism to supervise service providers and investor transactions using recommendations from the Financial Action Task Force.

SSC Chairwoman Vu Thi Chan Phuong said the framework places emphasis on risk management, protection of investor assets and anti money laundering controls. Vietnam wants to draw on the experience of the FMA and other European Union regulators while refining its rules for crypto assets.

The Austrian authority’s role includes oversight of crypto asset service providers alongside banks, insurers, pension funds, securities firms, investment funds, stock exchanges and other parts of the financial system. It handles responsibilities involving market supervision, investor protection, anti money laundering controls and unauthorized financial activity.

Kühnel told the Vietnamese delegation that many financial regulations applied in Austria are determined at the EU level, with the FMA responsible for their implementation domestically. She proposed more exchanges between the two countries through the International Organization of Securities Commissions and online technical meetings between experts.

Chi agreed with the proposed cooperation format, saying the channels could turn information sharing and technical support between the two authorities into concrete activities.

New penalties accompany the five year crypto pilot

Vietnam’s regulatory work is taking place under a five year pilot introduced through Resolution No. 05/2025/NQ-CP in September 2025. The framework covers crypto asset issuance, trading, custody and licensed service providers.

New enforcement rules took effect Sept. 1 under Decree No. 284/2026/ND-CP, setting penalties for unauthorized services, improper crypto asset issuance, inadequate customer checks and failures involving anti money laundering requirements.The crypto penalty framework was approved in July as authorities prepared for licensed domestic platforms.

Organizations that provide crypto services or advertise an exchange without authorization can face fines ranging from 180 million to 200 million dong. Licensed providers can face separate penalties for failures involving customer asset segregation, transaction monitoring, account information and customer verification.

Domestic investors will eventually be required to conduct covered trading through Ministry of Finance licensed providers. Decree 284 provides an organizational fine of between 30 million and 50 million dong for trading outside approved platforms, while the general half rate provision indicates lower penalties for individuals.

The restriction does not immediately apply simply because the decree took effect in September. Resolution 05 gives domestic investors a six month transition period beginning only after the Ministry of Finance issues its first crypto asset service provider license. With no final license issued by Aug. 30, that countdown had not yet started.

Vietnam looks to Austria for regulatory experience

Crypto formed part of a larger regulatory discussion between Vietnamese and Austrian officials. Chi said small and medium sized enterprises represent roughly 99% of operating businesses in Vietnam, with support policies being refined around governance, financial capacity, compliance and digital transformation.

Phuong said authorities are considering restructuring stock trading boards, including arrangements for small and medium sized businesses. Regulators are working on listed product quality, transparency and disclosure requirements while strengthening supervision against market manipulation and price rigging.

The Vienna meeting ended with the two sides agreeing to pursue technical exchanges through IOSCO and direct meetings between experts as Vietnam continues developing its financial and crypto asset supervision framework.

Key takeaways

• AVAX surged nearly 50% in one week, reaching an eight-month high of $10.82 on Sunday.
• Institutional tokenization developments involving ICE, New York Life Investment Management, Aave and Janus Henderson have boosted sentiment.
• Avalanche’s Helicon upgrade is scheduled for Sept. 22 and will reduce the minimum staking period from 14 days to 48 hours.

Avalanche’s AVAX token has climbed nearly 50% over the past week, reaching an eight-month high of $10.82 on Sunday as institutional tokenization developments renewed demand for the cryptocurrency.

One of the rally’s leading catalysts involves Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. ICE has reportedly spent about a year testing Avalanche as it explores infrastructure for round-the-clock trading of tokenized U.S. stocks and exchange-traded funds.

ICE has not selected Avalanche or announced a commercial partnership. However, Ava Labs President Charley Cooper said the company remains actively engaged with the network.

The development has strengthened expectations that Avalanche could play a role in bringing traditional financial assets onchain.

New York Life plans tokenized fund on Avalanche

New York Life Investment Management provided another institutional catalyst by announcing plans to launch its first tokenized fund on Avalanche through Centrifuge.

The offering will bring the firm’s U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Strategy onchain, giving eligible investors access to exposure tied to high-yield corporate debt.

Other financial companies are also expanding their involvement with Avalanche. Aave is developing an institutional real-world asset lending market on the network, while Paxos has added support for AVAX and USDC.

Asset manager Janus Henderson has also joined Avalanche as a validator, further strengthening the network’s institutional credentials.

Together, these developments reinforce Avalanche’s positioning as a blockchain for tokenized funds, credit products and other real-world assets.

Avalanche’s upcoming Helicon upgrade provides an additional potential catalyst for AVAX.

Scheduled for Sept. 22, the upgrade will reduce the minimum staking lockup period from 14 days to 48 hours. The change could make staking more flexible by allowing participants to commit their tokens for substantially shorter periods.

Helicon will also modify validator requirements and reward structures. Lowering the time commitment may encourage more users to participate in network validation, although the full impact will depend on how validators respond to the revised economics.

The timing of the upgrade, alongside growing institutional interest, has added momentum to AVAX’s recovery.

Falling wedge points to $19–$20 target

AVAX’s weekly chart is showing a potential long-term recovery setup after the price rebounded from the lower boundary of a large falling wedge that has developed since its 2021 peak.

Falling wedges are generally viewed as bullish reversal patterns when the price rebounds from the lower trendline and eventually breaks above descending resistance.

The latest recovery started around the $5.80–$6.50 region, a historical support zone that has repeatedly attracted buyers. AVAX subsequently climbed above its 20-week Exponential Moving Average near $7.97, strengthening the case for a broader recovery within the wedge.

If the rebound continues, the next major upside target lies between $19 and $20. The wedge’s descending upper trendline is converging in this area with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level near $19.86.

A move from approximately $10.50 to that resistance zone would produce an estimated gain of 85%–90%.

Before AVAX can approach $19, it must overcome resistance around its 50-week EMA. A rejection from this moving average could slow the recovery or send the token back toward lower support levels.

The broader bullish setup would weaken if AVAX loses the wedge’s lower trendline and falls decisively below $5.80. That level currently serves as the primary invalidation point for the recovery thesis.

AVAX’s outlook therefore remains constructive while it holds above the reclaimed 20-week EMA and maintains the wedge’s lower support. 

However, the projected move toward $19–$20 remains conditional on the token clearing intermediate resistance and sustaining institutional-driven demand.