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Beaten-Down AI & Growth Stocks Analysis | Seeking Alpha
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This transcript was generated by AI. It is not curated or reviewed and is provided for convenience and information purposes only. The accuracy and completeness of the transcript are not guaranteed.
Nicole Benjamin: Hey, everybody. It’s Nicole Benjamin, your host here at Seeking Alpha, to bring to you another episode of The Weekly Grade. And joining us for today is none other than VP of Quantitative Strategy here at Seeking Alpha, Steven Cress himself, the wonderful guy behind a lot of the amazing products you see on site, our Alpha Picks portfolio, our Pro Quant portfolio, and our newest Quant Growth and Income portfolio. So follow him back on Seeking Alpha. Make sure you check out his articles, see if there’s anything that might be in there for you. And Steve, thank you so much for joining us today.
Steven Cress: Hey, thank you very much for organizing it.
NB: Absolutely. Now, I wanna jump right in. Today, we are talking about Pagaya Technologies and an AI-powered fintech holding. It’s considered a quant strong buy on the site, and this is despite experiencing significant pullback from its recent peak. So how does Pagaya’s network model convert loan volume and institutional power growth into operational leverage without requiring this aggressive marketing spend?
SC: Well, they’re doing a great job on it. As you can see by our factor grades, on the right-hand side, they are a very profitable company, so they’re managing to do it. And actually, you can see that profitability grades increased to B plus from a B six months ago, so the trend is going in the right direction. So this means that their revenue and earnings are converting to profitability, so their leverage has been applied well, and they’re taking leverage off the table and turning that into profits. You can see analysts are very positive as well. When you look at these factor revision grades, it has improved to an A.
That means analysts are taking their estimates up from where they previously were and at a much faster pace. You could see actually six months ago compared to the sector, it had a D grade, which meant analysts’ revisions were lower than other companies for this sector. But their fortunes have turned around, profitability has improved, and analysts are actually taking their revisions upwards. So in the last ninety days, as a matter of fact, we have had eight analysts take up their earnings estimates and zero have taken it down. So that’s really positive.
And for the upcoming quarter, which is November sixth, you’ve also had eight analysts revise up their estimates and zero have revised it down. So lots of positives on that front. You could see looking at the quant rating history, we did have a strong buy, and then we got slightly negative on it for a while. That was probably when we saw the momentum grade drop to an F and the revisions grade drop to D. So I want to sell and stay to hold for quite a period of time. But a couple months ago, we went into the buy territory and the strong buy, and it’s obvious from the improvement in the factor grades why. So currently, the company is it’s in the IT sector. It’s a software company.
It ranks two out of one hundred and sixty-six companies that we cover in software, and their long-term EPS growth rate is tremendous. It’s at a six hundred percent difference in terms of its growth compared to this sector. ROE, as I said is improving as well. If you actually look at the ROE growth rate, it is a forty-three percent growth rate in their ROE versus the sector at seven percent. And from a valuation standpoint, the company looks really attractive as well. It has an A plus grade on value, and its multiple is dirt cheap. It’s currently at a multiple of five point five times versus the IT sector at a multiple of twenty-three times.
So it’s literally at a seventy-six percent discount. Now, what I, I like today and what you led with is there has actually been a pullback in the stock. It is well off its fifty-two-week high. The stock currently is eighteen dollars and seventy-three cents. The fifty-two-week high was thirty-eight dollars. But we’re inter– we’re entering sort of an interesting type of year. Typically, most people know September is seasonally weak. But what also happens is with stocks that are well off their fifty-two-week highs, many institutions try to clear their books out of their losers by the end of October. So sometimes weak stocks that are hovering around that fifty-two-week low, they’ll remain low.
Today, this company’s got a market cap of one point seven billion, so it’s a really small cap. There’s a seller out there despite the strong fundamentals, despite that analysts are taking their estimates up. Notably, there are other strong buys out of the stock. If you look at the consensus from Wall Street analysts, they have a strong buy on it, and the consensus of Seeking Alpha contributors is a strong buy, as well as the quant. So that’s sort of the trifecta. You have three independent research sources all indicating strong buy on the stock right now. So it looks very timely. I’d say take advantage and be opportunistic of the pullback.
Institutions, of course, as I mentioned, they tend to clear some of their losers out by the end of October. That’s when their calendar year ends. So could remain weak for a little bit longer, but you wanna take advantage of that.
NB: All right. Well, I wanna jump right over Steve and talk about some of the products we have here on site, our Pro Quant portfolio, our Alpha Picks portfolio, and our newest Quant Growth and Income portfolio. And in this side-by-side comparison, the Pro Quant portfolio, Alpha Picks, and QGI, how should investors be evaluating the trade frequency, asset universe, and the rebalancing cadences when deciding which of these quantitative strategies will be a great match for their investment objectives?
SC: I’m glad you brought it up. So all three of these products are designed to be really user-friendly. Individuals don’t always have a lot of time. To do the research on their own. Even though Seeking Alpha’s premium site will rank all the stocks, and you could see if they’re strong buy, buy, or sell, it’s still a lot of research. So these products help bring forward our top strong buys. But it does it at a different pace. Some people like to be really aggressive, some individuals don’t like to be aggressive. So the Pro Quant portfolio was designed for long-term capital appreciation, but for people who like a high frequency of ideas.
So the portfolio is always fixed at thirty stocks, but it rebalances weekly, which means, on average, every week you have two to three new ideas coming out. So for individuals that like that pace of ideas, the Pro Quant portfolio would be the product. For individuals who want long-term capital appreciation, but not quite that high frequency of having to get new ideas every week, Pro Alpha Picks spreads it out to only two ideas a month. So on the trading date closest to the first of the month and the fifteenth of the month, an individual or subscriber would receive those emails. So you only get two new ideas a month as opposed to two to three a week with the Pro Quant portfolio.
And then for the Quant Growth in Income, that’s actually focused on people that want a combination of capital appreciation and income generation. So the common thread with that fixed portfolio of thirty stocks is every single one of them pays a dividend. So it’s got a nice little yield, and many investors like to have that yield. We refer to that as more of the all-weather type of product. So it may not have quite the performance of a PQP or an Alpha Picks, but it’s more of a steady eddy. So three different portfolios for three different risk appetites.
NB: Right. Well, I also wanna bring up some stats here that we have about these portfolios. And just considering what’s on the screen, all of these portfolios are demonstrating significant total return over their respective market benchmarks. So in an environment where rate expectations and sector rotations create this short-term price volatility, how does sticking strictly to the factor grades prevent losses during these market pullbacks?
SC: Well, I wouldn’t say that factor grades prevent losses. Typically, when you hit periods that are really volatile, stocks with strong fundamentals actually do sell off quite a bit because when anxiety is high and sentiment is more fearful, people tend to take profits in stocks, and they’ll go to safe haven sectors or safe haven asset classes such as cash or consumer staples or utilities. However, you can dull that downward volatility on your portfolio by d– with diversification. So a good approach I often refer to is having a barbell approach.
You wanna be able to focus on stocks that offer that upside potential and also be opportunistic when the prices decline, but you also wanna have that income generation on the other side of the barbell, and that helps to sort of minimize any downward volatility. Companies that tend to pay a dividend, you get paid to wait, so the stocks typically do not come off as much as in a volatile period. So we have a combination of both together in that barbell approach, where you’re focusing on both capital appreciation and income generation. It tends to really smooth out any downward pressure that’s created by volatility.
NB: All right, Steve. Well, thank you so much. I wanna jump over and wrap things up there. For everybody that’s listening in, go ahead and click the follow button on Steve’s page. Go read his article, see if there’s something in there that might be right for you. And then just for some housekeeping, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Content is offered for information purposes only. Unless stated otherwise, any and all individuals participating in the video are third parties that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Unless stated otherwise, the views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. The accuracy and completeness of content shared cannot be guaranteed. Seeking Alpha does not take account of your objectives or financial situation and does not offer any personalized investment advice. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker, US investment advisor, or investment bank. Thank you so much.
Read Steven Cress’ Article on Seeking Alpha
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Dollar Briefly Rises to 7-Week High as Oil Prices Swing on Iran Hope
The dollar briefly hit a seven-week high against a basket of currencies before paring gains as oil prices see-sawed.
Crude prices turned lower after Japan’s Kyodo News said Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the U.S. takes steps toward easing military pressure.
An earlier rise in oil prices, which reflected continuing shipping risks, had lifted the dollar due to the U.S.’s position as a net oil exporter and the currency’s safe-haven role.
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Mortgage rates hit highest level since 2024, demand falls

Mortgage rates hit highest level since 2024, demand falls
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McDonald’s pledges $8.5B in franchisee support for modernization plan
Marion Campbell, Sonic Drive-In’s vice president of integrated marketing and communications, on the fast-food chain’s beverage and fall flavor strategies.
McDonald’s on Wednesday announced new details as part of its long-term growth strategy, which will include a focus on upgrading restaurants and staff training, at an investor day at the corporate headquarters in Chicago.
The fast-food giant announced its NEXT growth and productivity strategy in June and outlined plans to implement changes throughout its system.
McDonald’s said that to speed up the modernization of restaurants, deployment of technology and other operational improvements, it plans to provide about $8.5 billion in NEXT partnering support for franchisees through 2036, with roughly $5 billion provided through 2030.Â
The NEXT support for franchisees will include a combination of capital support and rent relief.
MCDONALD’S SAYS US SALES SLOWED AFTER VALUE DEAL PUSH FELL SHORT

McDonald’s detailed its plans to modernize restaurants and support franchisees. (Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
The support comes with a target of about 250 basis points of gross restaurant-level efficiency improvements amounting to about $100,000 in annual cash flow benefits for the average restaurant, with the company saying the majority of that would benefit the restaurant’s bottom line over time.
McDonald’s announcement noted that the restaurant component of the plan aims to boost growth and productivity through simplified operations, elevated execution, modernized restaurant design and deploying generative AI-enabled ArchIQ at scale.
MCDONALDâS SHAKES UP FALL COFFEE LINEUP AS PUMPKIN SPICE SEASON HEATS UP

McDonald’s also announced a new customer service initiative to drive repeat visits and improve consistency. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
The company also announced a multiyear training program called “Make it Golden” that will begin on Founder’s Day, Oct. 5, which aims to improve customer service to create more consistency for patrons and increase repeat visits.
“McDonald’s has the unmatched scale, customer insights, brand loyalty, and operational capabilities to not only adapt to the next wave of change in our industry, but to turn it into an advantage,” said McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski. “That’s what McDonald’s > NEXT is about: to be the first choice for more customers, more often â while making our restaurants stronger and easier to run.”Â
MCDONALD’S SERVING UP NEW KIND OF ENERGY BOOST ON MENUS NATIONWIDE
| Ticker | Security | Last | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | MCDONALD’S CORP. | 236.78 | -13.59 | -5.43% |
“We are confident that executing across the key components of NEXT will unlock stronger restaurant economics, generate attractive returns for the Company, our franchisees and shareholders, and increase capacity to keep investing in growth,” Kempczinski added.
McDonald’s announcement also included new market share targets, calling for 1.5 percentage points of growth in both chicken and beverages by 2030, while also maintaining the company’s leadership in beef market share.
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Sales growth from unit expansion is also targeted to contribute nearly 2.5% to system-wide sales growth in 2027, moderating to about 2% by 2030.
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UK growth forecast raised to 1.1 per cent by OECD
The UK economy will grow by 1.1 per cent this year, according to new forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), up from the 0.9 per cent it projected in June.
The Paris-based organisation said in its interim outlook, published today, that output had held up better than expected in the face of the US-Iran war. It pointed to âsolid domestic demand growth in the second quarterâ of the year.
The OECD said household spending could get a further boost from government measures to cut taxes on energy bills and cap bus fares.
The 1.1 per cent estimate is the joint second highest in the G7, behind the United States on 2.2 per cent and level with Germany, which has begun to recover from three years of industrial stagnation.
Slower growth and lower inflation
The OECD expects UK growth to slow to 1 per cent in 2027, down from the 1.1 per cent it forecast in June. When it last published forecasts, the organisation had cut its UK growth projection to below 1 per cent for this year.
It also lowered its inflation projection for this year from an average of 3.7 per cent to 3.1 per cent. For next year it expects inflation of 2.6 per cent, higher than the 2.4 per cent it forecast in the summer.
UK GDP figures and measures of private sector activity and household sentiment have improved in recent months, despite global oil prices rising to between $90 and $100 a barrel since August. Economists have warned that higher oil and gas prices will add to inflation and cost-of-living pressures, and that spending and activity are likely to be squeezed during the winter months.
The OECD said British consumers were among those âdedicating a higher proportion of their spending towards fuel, amid very rapid growth in gasoline and diesel prices since the onset of the conflictâ.
Emma Reynolds, chief secretary to the Treasury, said: âDespite unprecedented pressures and conflict in both the Middle East and in Europe, the UK economy is showing strong resilience. We had the fastest growth in the G7 in the first half of the year and we are starting the big, long-term changes needed to create good jobs and growth in every postcode.â
The OECD said it expects no change this year to UK interest rates, which stand at 3.75 per cent.
Last week the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent and warned it could tighten policy for the first time in three years before the end of 2026, should consumer prices breach 4 per cent. Governor Andrew Bailey said a rate rise was likely if the Iran war went on. Annual inflation is currently running at 3.1 per cent.
The OECD said the picture for the UK and world economy was âheavily dependent on whether a durable resolution to the Middle East conflict is achievedâ.
âEnergy prices have recently risen again amidst intensified disruptions to production and exports in the Gulf economies. Elevated refining margins due to production bottlenecks are placing additional upward pressure on consumer prices and business costs. Prices for some agricultural commodities have also risen markedly in recent months, partly due to the impact of extreme weather on supply,â the interim report said.
The organisation raised its global growth projection from 2.8 per cent to 2.9 per cent. It said âsizeable oil inventories, additional supply from outside the Gulf economies and discretionary government support measures all helped to cushion the impact on the global economyâ.
Its biggest downgrade was to Canada, where projected growth fell from 1.2 per cent to 0.9 per cent after the US imposed new tariffs on its neighbour.
France was also downgraded, to 0.4 per cent, the lowest in the G7. The OECDâs forecast comes as the EUâs second-largest economy faces pressure to reduce its rising budget deficit before presidential elections next year.
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Fed Governor Michael Barr signals more rate hikes needed to tame inflation
“Risks to achieving our inflation target have increased, while risks to the labour market have receded,” Barr said in prepared remarks for a Chicago Fed housing affordability conference.
He noted that US economic growth remains strong and the labour market solid, but inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% goal and not clearly headed lower. “In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion,” he said.
For live updates on US Markets, click here
In a unanimous decision last week, Fed policymakers raised the central bank’s policy rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. Sixteen of 18 officials signalled that at least one more hike would likely be needed before year-end, according to a Reuters report.
Barr’s remarks suggest he sees the case for at least two further increases, though he did not specify a timeline.
His willingness to be specific about the rate path stands in contrast to Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who has declined to offer any forward guidance on the matter.”In my view, given changes to the economy, we were out of position, and we made an adjustment in the right direction,” Barr added, referring to last week’s quarter-point hike. “We want to support sustainable, durable growth in support of maximum employment, and price stability is crucial to that.”
Barr’s comments on monetary policy were brief, with most of his speech devoted to housing affordability, a problem he said has been compounded by a shortage of supply and elevated mortgage rates. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the US rose to 7.12% last week, its highest level in more than two years, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday.
(Disclaimer: This article is based on inputs from agencies. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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CEO Chris Kempczinski discusses inflation

McDonald’s is predicting that flat traffic and higher inflation will continue to weigh on the restaurant industry, CEO Chris Kempczinski said Wednesday.
“One of the things I’ve talked to our team about is we need to stop talking about that being a difficult environment, and just say that is the environment,” Kempczinski said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “Because I think, as we look out forward, we’re not expecting things to change.”
For years, Kempczinski has been warning investors and analysts about the “challenging environment” faced by McDonald’s and the broader industry. The burger chain reported U.S. same-store sales growth of just 0.8% in its most recent quarter as traffic to its domestic restaurants fell.
Diners have been eating out less frequently, pushing back against higher menu prices as they face increased costs on everything from gas to groceries. From August 2025 to July 2026, industry operators surveyed by the National Restaurant Association reported a net decline in customer traffic in every month but one.
Chris Kempczinski, McDonald’s, speaks during a press conference in New York, November 17, 2016.
Shannon Stapleton | Reuters
To attract customers, McDonald’s and its rivals have leaned into discounts. But diners aren’t the only ones facing higher costs.
Restaurant operators â like McDonald’s and its franchisees â have seen beef prices soar. Kempczinski said that beef costs have nearly doubled over the last five years in the company’s biggest markets. Other expenses, like labor and construction, have also ticked higher, putting more pressure on margins.
“Across the board, we’re seeing that inflation is sticky,” Kempczinski said. “It’s sticky, not just in the U.S., but around the world.”
Faced with tougher operating conditions, McDonald’s is focusing on stealing diners from its rivals.
“The biggest thing that you need to do in an environment like this is you have to be able to earn share,” Kempczinski said. “You have to be able to actually grab growth from your competitors.”
While he said McDonald’s will likely have to consider price increases, he added the chain will have to be careful not to drive diners away. He reiterated that the company believes it erred by raising prices too quickly in the years after the Covid pandemic.
Kempczinski and other McDonald’s executives will share more details about the company’s plans to gain market share during its investor day on Wednesday.
Business
First-time equity deals shift outside London, study finds
The majority of companies raising equity for the first time are now based outside London, according to research from Beauhurst Insights and the law firm Penningtons Manches Cooper, with the capitalâs share of first-time deals falling to 44.6 per cent in the first half of 2026.
Londonâs share of all first-time equity deals had already dropped to 49.1 per cent in 2025, the researchers said. The last time more first-time fundraisings were completed outside the capital than inside it was in 2022, according to Beauhurst.
Companies using artificial intelligence captured 58.6 per cent of the value of all first-time deals in the six months to June, the study found. That compares with 32.9 per cent in 2025 and 17 per cent in 2024.
The 2,730 start-ups that sold shares for the first time in 2025 raised a total of ÂŁ4.4bn, an increase of 11.7 per cent, according to the report.
However, 30 per cent more companies secured external capital for the first time, and the researchers said investors had committed less money per company and at lower valuations. Pre-investment valuations fell by 20.3 per cent to ÂŁ1.5m last year, and the average has since slipped to ÂŁ1.45m.
The average deal size fell from ÂŁ2m to ÂŁ1.7m. The median deal stood at ÂŁ290,000, a gap the researchers attributed to the effect of several very large first-time fundraisings.
Henry Whorwood, managing director at Beauhurst Insights, said the increased volume of first-time equity raises reversed a long-term decline. He attributed that decline to venture capital firms increasingly needing to support their existing portfolio companies with more capital.
Mr Whorwood said the rise of AI had driven the reversal, with a wave of companies seeking to exploit the technology.
London leads on AI rounds
Although the capitalâs overall share has fallen, London completed more AI first rounds than the rest of the UK combined, at 392 against 268, the research found.
Londonâs 60 per cent share of AI fundraising rounds was 11 percentage points ahead of its share of the market as a whole. The researchers said this reflected the concentration of investors and support services for technology companies in the capital.
Separate Barclays and Beauhurst figures published in July showed that UK equity investment rose to ÂŁ14.4bn in the first half of 2026, with London accounting for the bulk of the money raised.
Outside London, first-time fundraising in the West Midlands nearly doubled in 2025, according to the report. Northern Ireland recorded a rise of 73 per cent and Scotland 60 per cent. London-based deal volumes rose by 27 per cent.
Largest first-time rounds
The report pointed to several very large first-time fundraisings. Isomorphic Labs, the London-based, Google-backed start-up that uses AI for drug discovery, raised ÂŁ464m in March 2025.
Edinburgh-based Fidra Energy, which has developed a battery energy storage system, secured ÂŁ445m from its owner, the US institutional investor EIG, alongside the UKâs National Wealth Fund.
In the first half of this year, the ÂŁ814m of first-time equity raised by Ineffable Intelligence represented 39 per cent of the value of all first-time deals, according to the research.
The London-headquartered AI company was founded in late 2025 by David Silver, a computer science professor at University College London and a former senior AI specialist at Googleâs DeepMind labs in London. The British Business Bank was among the backers of the Ineffable Intelligence round.
Separate Tracxn data published in July found that investors were writing fewer, larger cheques in the first half across UK tech.
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