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Bitcoin Could Hit $400,000 by 2029 as Analyst Cites Regulatory Shifts and Institutional Adoption

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TLDR:

  • Analyst who called $100K Bitcoin in 2022 now forecasts $400,000 price target by February 15, 2029. 
  • Pro-Bitcoin appointments across SEC, Fed, and White House create favorable regulatory environment for growth. 
  • Gold’s historic rally against Bitcoin typically precedes cryptocurrency doubling in value relative to metals. 
  • Traditional finance infrastructure through ETFs and bank custody makes Bitcoin more accessible than ever before.

 

Bitcoin advocate Luke Broyles has issued fresh predictions for the cryptocurrency’s trajectory, suggesting current price levels represent an attractive entry point for investors.

The analyst, who accurately forecasted Bitcoin’s climb to $100,000 from its $16,000 bottom in late 2022, now projects the digital asset could reach $400,000 by February 2029.

His analysis centers on shifting regulatory landscapes and macroeconomic conditions favoring cryptocurrency adoption.

Institutional Adoption and Political Support Drive Bullish Outlook

Broyles outlined several factors supporting his optimistic price forecast in a recent social media post. The analyst pointed to pro-Bitcoin appointments across key US regulatory positions, including the Securities and Exchange Commission and Federal Reserve.

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“Trump wants to lower DXY—Pro-Bitcoin SEC, Fed Chair, President, Senators, etc. Interest rates looking to lower,” he wrote. These political shifts mark a departure from previous regulatory uncertainty that plagued the sector.

The cryptocurrency has already demonstrated remarkable resilience since bottoming at $16,000 in January 2023. Current prices around $81,000 represent a fivefold increase over that period.

Despite this performance, Broyles argues mainstream sentiment remains cautiously negative or neutral toward Bitcoin. “Nothing has changed other than the fact your portfolio is now worth 70% less in Bitcoin terms over the last 3 years,” he stated. This disconnect between price action and public perception creates opportunity for informed investors.

Traditional finance infrastructure has increasingly embraced digital assets through exchange-traded funds and bank custody services.

This institutional onboarding provides legitimacy and accessibility that previous market cycles lacked. “Banks and companies are onboarded. ETFs and BTCTCs being available to most,” Broyles noted.

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The combination of regulatory clarity and accessible investment vehicles differentiates current market conditions from earlier speculative periods.

Gold’s extended rally against Bitcoin historically precedes strong cryptocurrency performance, according to the analyst’s research. “Gold is finishing its highest and longest run ever in Bitcoin’s history – and that’s usually good for Bitcoin,” he explained.

When Bitcoin breaks out against precious metals, it typically doubles in value relative to gold. This pattern suggests potential upside to $400,000 based on current gold-Bitcoin ratios.

Fiat System Pressures and Strategic Positioning

The analyst framed Bitcoin’s appeal through monetary policy constraints facing traditional financial systems. Central banks need to originate trillions in new loans while most conventional assets already carry elevated valuations and leverage.

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“The fiat system needs to originate trillions of new loans and virtually every other asset other than Bitcoin is already pumped up with leverage,” Broyles observed. T

his dynamic creates what he termed a “Cantillionaire gameplan” where newly printed currency flows disproportionately into Bitcoin.

Broyles projected 2026 will be remembered as an advantageous accumulation period for the next three to five years. “My guess is that 2026 marks the best year to buy Bitcoin out of the next 3-5 years,” he stated.

His timeline suggests $400,000 Bitcoin would arrive 1,476 days from the $20,000 level, compared to the 1,112 days already elapsed since that threshold. This temporal analysis supports his assertion that investors stand closer to higher prices than to recent lows.

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The analysis concluded with observations about behavioral patterns among cryptocurrency skeptics. “When the first two predictions come true most people that were naysayers back in 2022 at $16,000 per Bitcoin and today at $81,000 per Bitcoin will still be ignoring what I am saying,” Broyles predicted.

He encouraged investors holding zero Bitcoin allocation to establish positions, suggesting current market conditions favor strategic entry despite already substantial gains from previous lows.

 

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Ceasefire lifts bitcoin, but animal spirits may not return just yet: Crypto Daybook Americas

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BTC's daily swings in candlestick format with key simple moving averages. (TradingView)
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The crypto market is back on the front-foot after a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran removed some of the geopolitical uncertainty and sent oil prices tumbling. Still, energy market dynamics are such that it may be too early to assume the return of animal spirits to risk assets.

Bitcoin has jumped 3% to $71,600 in the past 24 hours while ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), and solana (SOL) have all gained more than 5%. The CoinDesk 20 Index has outperformed bitcoin, rising 4.2 percent, which is typical when altcoins outpace the market leader.

Oil has plunged after Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global shipments. WTI crude futures trading on NYMEX are down nearly 16 percent to $95 a barrel. When crude drops sharply, inflation fears ease, Fed rate hike calls weaken and crypto tends to rally.

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Supporting the move is a drop in bitcoin and ether 30-day implied volatility, which measures market fear. Since the debut of spot ETFs two years ago, these numbers have evolved into VIX-like metrics, spiking during sell-offs and calming as panic fades.

The mood could get another lift later if Morgan Stanley’s bitcoin ETF debuts with strong volumes and inflows on day one. That would reinforce the story of institutional adoption.

“The recent pattern has been institutional demand showing up again through ETFs. When inflows are present, dips are bought faster and the market holds higher levels even when momentum cools,” Marex said.

Still, there are reasons to be cautious. The overnight rally was partly fueled by short positions being unwound after traders betting on a U.S.-Iran escalation got caught off guard. Shorts worth $431 million were liquidated in 24 hours, the largest since March 4, according to Coinglass. In cases like this, the market often chugs along waiting for fresh demand. Without it, gains can quickly reverse.

While oil is down to $85, it’s still $30 higher than before the conflict started on Feb. 28. Moreover, the ceasefire is temporary and not a permanent fix and for oil to drop further, hormuz tanker traffic and insurance rates need to normalize to pre-war levels.

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“This remains a pause rather than a durable settlement, with the ceasefire conditional on how Iran manages passage through Hormuz over the coming weeks,” QCP Capital said. “That caution matters because the physical damage narrative has not gone away.”

Until then, oil could stay near $100 and keep risk assets like crypto in check. Stay alert.

What’s trending

Read more: For a comprehensive list of events that would be shaping up this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Today’s signal

BTC's daily swings in candlestick format with key simple moving averages. (TradingView)

The chart shows bitcoin’s daily price swings in candlestick format since October. The yellow line represents the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of the price, and the white line shows the 100-day average.

As shown, the spot price has decisively moved above the 50-day average, a widely watched measure of near-term trends. The move indicates a strengthening of bullish momentum and follows the recent bounce from the trendline support at the February lows.

Prices, therefore, could see more upside ahead, with $76,100, the 100-day average, as the next level to watch. On the downside, the late March lows near $65,000 are expected to act as a demand zone, supporting pullbacks. If that level fails, prices could fall to $60,000.

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Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

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Trump Weighs NATO Troop Shakeup as Punishment: Could Tariffs Be Next?

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President Trump is weighing a plan to relocate US troops away from NATO countries he considers “unhelpful” in the Iran conflict, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The proposal, still in early stages, is one of several White House options to pressure allies over limited support for US-led operations.

NATO Rift Over Iran Widens

The plan would shift portions of roughly 84,000 American troops stationed across Europe. Trump and his team have expressed frustration at allies who denied the US logistical help, airspace access, or base use during strikes against Iran.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration would need to reexamine NATO’s value.

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Trump himself has called some allies “cowards” and labeled the alliance a “paper tiger.”

Countries viewed as supportive, including Poland, Romania, Lithuania, and Greece, could receive additional forces. Those nations have aligned more closely with Washington’s eastern flank priorities.

Trade Threats Already in Motion

Trump threatened to cut off all trade with Spain after it refused to allow US military bases to be used in strikes against Iran.

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He directed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to end all dealings with Madrid.

Meanwhile, Trump announced immediate 50% tariffs on goods from any country supplying weapons to Iran, with no exclusions or exemptions.

Russia and China are Iran’s most significant weapons suppliers.

No tariff package specifically targeting “unhelpful” NATO members has been formally announced.

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However, the Spain episode and Trump’s pattern of mixing military pressure with economic punishment suggest trade measures could follow.

“The proposal would involve moving US troops from ‘unhelpful’ countries and into countries that were ‘more supportive’ of the Iran War 2. The plan is early in conception and one of several that the White House is discussing to punish NATO,” the Kobeissi Letter indicated, citing the WSJ.

Whether tariffs become the matching stick for resisters may depend on how NATO responds as ceasefire talks with Iran continue.

The post Trump Weighs NATO Troop Shakeup as Punishment: Could Tariffs Be Next? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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US Treasury Moves Forward with GENIUS Act, Focusing on Illicit Finance

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Law, Government, United States, Stablecoin

Payment stablecoin issuers in the United States will be required to implement a regime targeting illicit finance under the proposed framework for the GENIUS Act.

In a Wednesday notice, the US Treasury Department said its Financial Crimes Enforcement Network and Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) had issued a joint proposed rule to implement provisions of the GENIUS Act, signed into law in July 2025. 

The proposal would direct payment stablecoin issuers to establish and maintain an anti-money laundering (AML) and countering the financing of terrorism (CFT) program, maintain a sanctions compliance program, and have the ability to “block, freeze and reject” certain stablecoin transactions. Issuers would be treated as financial institutions for purposes of the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA).

“Bringing stablecoin issuers into full BSA/OFAC compliance effectively turns them into bank-like gatekeepers,” Snir Levi, CEO of blockchain intelligence firm Nominis, told Cointelegraph. “That means significantly more wallet freezes, transaction blocking and asset seizures at scale,” he said.

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Law, Government, United States, Stablecoin
Source: Financial Crimes Enforcement Network

Treasury’s notice was part of the implementation of the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin payments bill signed into law by US President Donald Trump last year. The legislation provides a framework for stablecoin issuers and is expected to be a boon for crypto markets. It will be effective 18 months after it was signed in July or 120 days after federal authorities issue related regulations.

Related: NYT revives Adam Back theory in latest bid to identify Bitcoin creator

On Tuesday, the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) issued its own proposed rule as part of the agency’s GENIUS Act implementation. The FDIC said stablecoin holders would not be insured under the bill, though reserve deposits for issuers would receive protection.

Stablecoin yield fight rages between US lawmakers and banking and crypto industries

While federal agencies work on implementation of the GENIUS Act, Congress has effectively been stalled on progress for a bill to establish a digital asset market framework, called the CLARITY Act when it passed the House of Representatives last year.

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With the Senate Banking Committee yet to schedule a markup on the bill — a necessary step before a full floor vote in the chamber — crypto and banking representatives have been meeting with White House officials to discuss issues related to stablecoin yield, tokenized equities and ethics.

The White House’s Council of Economic Advisers said on Wednesday that a ban on stablecoin yield in the bill “would do very little to protect bank lending,” claiming that it would impose costs on users.

As of Wednesday, the banking committee had not rescheduled a markup on the CLARITY Act.

Magazine: Your guide to surviving this mini-crypto winter

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