Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur recently said that a provincial Jirga, comprising tribal elders, has been formed to hold talks with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan to discuss security and trade issues.
However, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)-led KP government’s initiative has come under fire from the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) run federal government, which has called the move a “direct assault on the federation.”
The KP government began talking about a province-led initiative to engage Afghanistan’s interim government in September 2024. However, the federal government termed the PTI government’s initiative a breach of constitutional authority. After several months of silence on the subject, the KP government has again raised the issue with renewed vigor.
The urgency regarding dialogue on the part of KP government comes amid a sharp rise in militant attacks, particularly by the Afghanistan-based Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). According to a study by the Pakistan Institute of Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) think tank, civilian deaths in extremist attacks more than doubled in February 2025 compared to the previous month. These attacks, which claimed the lives of 55 civilians and 47 law enforcement personnel, took place mostly in KP province.
The ongoing controversy between the federal and provincial government over the latter engaging with Kabul raises many questions. Foremost among them is whether Chief Minister Gandapur’s KP government is acting independently or has the tactical support of Pakistan’s powerful military leadership to break the deadlock with Afghanistan over security issues.
Arguably, it is not possible for the KP government to engage with Afghanistan without the military establishment’s approval, given the delicate nature of security and foreign policy. It is important to note that KP government spokesperson Barrister Saif, who is the point-person for the talks initiative, recently emphasized that their government will “ensure that the entire process is aligned with security and foreign policies,” keeping the federal government in the loop. He blamed the federal government for trying to undermine the initiative by delaying the Terms of Reference (TORs) for the talks.
The KP government has not done anything so far that would suggest it is making decisions independently. On the other hand, it seems that it understands that the final decision regarding holding talks with the Afghan Taliban rests with the military establishment. However, its persistent criticism of the federal government, accusing it of not doing anything to engage Afghanistan, is aimed at scoring political points and calming its electoral base, which is bearing the brunt of rising militant attacks in the province.
Arguably, the military which faces cross-border attacks on a daily basis could be in favor of dialogue with Kabul. However, it seems that the institution prefers to avoid direct engagement. It is possible that by allowing the KP government to start the process via a Jirga, the military is looking to maintain calculated distance while working on opportunities to resolve the issue.
If the KP government’s engagement results in even a partial halt in TTP attacks, it would be a considerable win for both the KP government and the military, which remains under pressure to curb the attacks. Also, any success in talks with the Afghan Taliban could give the PTI-led KP government some room to mend its strained ties with the military. Moreover, it could create more space to foster a more consensus based and collaborative approach to deal with issues of national security.
The PML-N which heads the federal government is not in favor of allowing the KP government to engage in dialogue with Afghanistan. Clearly, the ongoing friction between the PTI and the military has benefited the PML-N and its allies politically. The ruling party would not want to lose this leverage, which could happen if the KP government is able to deliver some meaningful results.
However, the question is whether the KP government’s initiative can produce some tangible results. The issues between Pakistan and the Taliban regime are deeply complex, requiring fundamental changes in Kabul’s existing hostile approach to Pakistan.
A recent United Nations Security Council (UNSC) report disclosed that Afghan Taliban support for TTP has surged in recent months, leading to more attacks in Pakistan. According to the report, which covered the period from July 1 to December 13, 2024, TTP carried out more than 600 attacks on Pakistani soil, with the Afghan Taliban offering logistical, financial and operational support from across the border. The report further revealed that the TTP leader Noor Wali Masoud’s family receives $43,000 every month from Kabul. The TTP has also established new training bases in Kunar, Nangarhar, Khost, and Paktika regions. Moreover, it is increasingly using Afghan Taliban fighters in its operations, according to the report.
In recent weeks, Pakistan security forces killed several Afghan fighters in its counterterrorism operations against the TTP. This is an indication that TTP and Afghan Taliban are putting up a united front to bolster their militant campaign against Pakistan.
Moreover, bilateral tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan are further intensified by border trade problems, visa-related complications and the Taliban’s construction of infrastructure and check posts on disputed border areas. Earlier this week, Pakistani and Afghan border forces exchanged fire at the Torkham border, one of the two key border crossings between the two countries. The border has remained closed for two weeks now due to a dispute over the construction of a check post by the Afghan Taliban.
These developments suggest that Kabul is unlikely to change its aggressive policies without demanding major concessions from Pakistan. These concessions might involve border adjustments, compromise on border restrictions and other political compromises in favor of its ally, TTP. It will not be possible for the KP government, or any government in Pakistan to deliver these. This complex backdrop highlights the challenges that the dialogue could face.
With the Afghan Taliban’s growing support for TTP and its broader political goals, it remains to be seen what the KP government’s proposed Jirga-led dialogue can deliver.
