Crypto World
What About the Ethereum 2.0 Roadmap?
The founder of the Ethereum project, Vitalik Buterin, unveiled a new roadmap for Ethereum a few weeks ago. His goal is to fix the weaknesses created by the migration from ETH1.0 (PoW) to ETH2.0 (PoS) regarding security and decentralisation. Vitalik, therefore, acknowledges that Ethereum has become centralised to the point where it can become dangerous, a risk that many people warned The Merge posed.
Ethereum roadmap:
The key to this change lies in whether these new modifications will be enough to make Ethereum a network with guarantees of decentralisation and resistance to censorship. We should wait a while to find out, as the new Ethereum roadmap is extensive and applies technologies that could be a success if well implemented. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the phases of this roadmap one by one:
First Phase: The Surge, truly scaling Ethereum
The Surge is the first phase of this new roadmap and aims to increase Ethereum’s scalability. Its construction relies on a series of improvements. Among them, the following stand out:
1.- The activation of EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding): Proposed improvement consisting of enabling a new transaction format for Ethereum. Transactions can have “data BLOBs” that can be transparently integrated into the nodes and their operation. This is similar to how rollups work and could facilitate rollup operations on Ethereum. This way, Ethereum would increase its scalability, leaving behind the ‘PoS = more scalability’ farce sold during the pre-The Merge.
2.- A series of cryptographic improvements focused on offering a ZKP (Zero Knowledge Proof) model. These improvements would enable more private and secure transactions, as well as lay the foundations for the construction of zk-Rollups and zkEVM, which would allow for private smart contracts.
3.- Alongside ZKP would come SLE or Secret Leader Election (SLE). An improvement that seeks to make the election of the PoS validator node an event protected by ZKP cryptography. This is intended to prevent manipulation of the network to some extent.
Second phase: The Scourge, re-centralising the network
In this second phase, there is a need for SLE from the previous phase to be fulfilled. This is because The Scourge needs it to build its significant improvement Proposer / Builder Separation (PBS). PBS is a proposed solution to the problem of censorship and MEV (Maximum Extractable Value) attack on the Ethereum network. The idea lies in making the construction of blocks and the proposal of new blocks to be assigned to different parts of the network, avoiding the validator carrying the weight in both tasks.
The separation of roles also occurs in other blockchains such as Dash, where there is a similar scheme with Dash miners and Masternodes, each with very clear and well-defined roles in the network. Well, Ethereum wants to take this approach to make the network have two roles:
1. Generate the role of Block Proposer, dedicated to proposing blocks to the network, a job for which it could receive rewards. However, this still needs to be clarified in Ethereum, but in other networks, these nodes receive rewards (e.g. Flow).
2. Generate the role of Block Validator, which is in charge of validating the proposed block and receiving rewards for it.
Both roles would be under an SLE type selection, but only the Block Validator could write data to the blockchain. The problem with PBS is that the reward scheme needs to be adjusted, which will directly impact Ethereum tokenomics.
Third Phase: The Verge, speeding up transaction verification
One issue that is a severe problem in Ethereum is transaction verification on the network. On-chain transaction verification is fast. However, the problem lies in the synchronisation and verification of transactions and their entire history.
This is where the third phase aims to make a significant change, making transactions able to include a series of ZKP enhancements using zk-SNARKs cryptography. Ultimately, Buterin wants Ethereum to implement zk-SNARKs as a cryptographic stack to generate the proofs needed to verify new transactions on the network. This has the advantage that zk-SNARKs are more secure than the current system using EdDSA (i.e. zk-SNARKs have higher resistance to quantum computers than EdDSA). Still, it has the disadvantage that
zk-SNARKs are algorithmically more complex. Catastrophic errors can be made, and bugs can be challenging to detect.
Fourth Phase: The Purge
This phase aims to make Ethereum simpler. As such, Buterin seeks to make the network have capabilities that allow for greater portability. These capabilities include:
1.- Enable a Fast sync. In other words, fast synchronisations only require downloading a part of the blockchain to have a functional node. Currently, the entire blockchain has to be downloaded.
2.- With the arrival of zk-SNARKs and verkle trees, unnecessary data could be discarded from the blockchain, which would allow nodes to need less disk space to store the blockchain, enabling small devices to serve as nodes (e.g. a smartphone). This would be another achievement, but it is complex, and the impact on validator nodes (which must have complete data to operate) is unknown.
3.- Further improvements in EVM to reduce gas usage and overhead (overhead on nodes and the network in general).
Fifth phase: The Splurge
In this last phase of the roadmap, the aim is to repair everything that can be repaired in Ethereum. On the one hand, to say goodbye to the manipulation of gas costs with the EIP-1559. This would eliminate the current gas costing scheme and the token burning that currently prevails in Ethereum. On the other hand, activating the VDF (Verifiable Delay Function) is a type of cryptographic function that makes data verification more efficient. It is also intended to move everything from the EVM to the zkEVM.
Another goal is to change the account abstraction scheme in Ethereum, considering EIP-4337, which entails abstracting the wallets and associated accounts to a point away from the consensus because the accounts are no longer related to the consensus, but their operations are.
Conclusion: Relative decentralisation
The design of Ethereum’s roadmap makes us think that its creator is concerned about the degree of decentralisation it shows to the world.
Indeed, some things would make Ethereum advanced and decentralised, such as the use of zk-SNARKs, PBS and SLE. However, its success depends on a reliable setup for the security it provides to be effective.
Ethereum is trying to stabilize after weeks of heavy selling. The price is holding near the $1,950 zone, up around 6% from its recent low. At the same time, the biggest Ethereum whales have started accumulating aggressively.
But short-term sellers and derivatives traders remain cautious, creating a growing tug-of-war around the next move.
Biggest Ethereum Whales Accumulate as Bullish Divergence Stays Intact
On-chain data shows that the largest Ethereum holders are positioning for a rebound. Since February 9, addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH have increased their holdings from around 5.17 million ETH to nearly 6.27 million ETH. That is an addition of more than 1.1 million ETH, worth roughly $2 billion at current prices.
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This accumulation aligns with a bullish technical signal on the 12-hour chart.
Between January 25 and February 12, Ethereum’s price made a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, formed a higher low. RSI measures momentum by comparing recent gains and losses. When price falls, but RSI rises, it often signals weakening selling pressure.
This bullish divergence suggests downside momentum is fading.
The structure remains valid as long as Ethereum holds above $1,890, as the same signal flashed even on February 11 and still seems to be holding. A breakdown below this level would invalidate the divergence for now and weaken the rebound case.
For now, whales appear to be betting that this support will hold.
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Short-Term Holders Are Selling?
While large investors are accumulating, short-term holders are behaving very differently.
The Spent Coins Age Band for the 7-day to 30-day cohort has surged sharply. Since February 9 (the same time when the whale pickup started), this metric has risen from around 14,000 to nearly 107,000, an increase of more than 660%. This indicator tracks how many recently acquired coins are being moved. Rising values usually signal possible profit-taking and distribution.
In simple terms, short-term traders are exiting positions. This pattern appeared earlier in February as well. On February 5, a spike in short-term coin activity occurred near $2,140. Within one day, Ethereum dropped by around 13%.
That history shows how aggressive selling from this group can quickly reverse moves. As long as short-term holders remain active sellers, upside moves are likely to face resistance.
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Derivatives Data Shows Heavy Bearish Positioning
Derivatives markets are reinforcing this cautious outlook. Current liquidation data shows nearly $3.06 billion in short positions stacked against only about $755 million in long leverage. This creates a heavily bearish imbalance with almost 80% of the market betting on the short side.
On one hand, this setup creates fuel for a potential short squeeze if prices rise. On the other hand, it shows that most traders still expect further weakness. This keeps momentum muted but keeps the bounce hope alive if the whale buying pushes the prices up, even a little bit, crossing past key clusters.
On-chain cost basis data helps explain why Ethereum struggles to break higher. Around $1,980, roughly 1.58% of the circulating supply, was acquired. Near $2,020, another 1.23% of supply sits at breakeven. These zones represent large groups of holders waiting to exit without losses.
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When price approaches these levels, selling pressure increases as investors try to recover capital. This has repeatedly capped recent bounces. Only a strong leverage-driven move or short squeeze would likely be powerful enough to push through these supply clusters.
Until then, these zones remain major barriers.
Key Ethereum Price Levels To Track Now
With whales buying and sellers resisting, Ethereum price levels now matter more than narratives.
On the upside, the first major resistance sits near $2,010. A clean 12-hour close above this level would increase the probability of short liquidations. And it sits near the key supply cluster.
If that happens, Ethereum could target $2,140 next, a strong resistance zone with multiple touchpoints. It also sits around 10% from the current levels. On the downside, $1,890 remains the critical support. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish divergence and signal renewed downside pressure. Below that, the next major support sits near $1,740.
As long as Ethereum holds above $1,890 and continues testing $2,010, the rebound structure remains intact. A sustained breakdown below support would cancel the current recovery attempt.
A US federal judge in Virginia sentenced the chief executive of Praetorian Group International to 20 years in prison for running a $200 million cryptocurrency investment scheme that defrauded tens of thousands of investors.
According to the Department of Justice, 61-year-old Ramil Ventura Palafox, a dual US and Philippine citizen, was convicted of wire fraud and money laundering for what prosecutors described as a Ponzi scheme that falsely promised daily returns of up to 3% from Bitcoin trading.
The US Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Virginia said investors poured over $201 million into PGI between December 2019 and October 2021, including at least 8,198 Bitcoin (BTC) valued at about $171.5 million at the time. According to prosecutors, victims suffered losses of at least $62.7 million.
The sentencing concludes the criminal case brought by the DOJ and follows a parallel civil action by the Securities and Exchange Commission, marking one of the larger crypto-related fraud cases in recent years by investor count and funds involved.
Fake trading claims and luxury spending
Court filings said Palafox told investors PGI was engaged in large-scale Bitcoin trading capable of generating consistent daily profits.
However, prosecutors said the company was not trading at a level sufficient to support the promised returns. Instead, new investor funds were used to pay earlier participants.
Authorities said Palafox operated an online portal that falsely displayed steady gains, giving investors the impression their accounts were growing. He also used a multilevel marketing structure, offering referral incentives to recruit new members.
The DOJ said Palafox spent millions in investor funds on personal expenses, including $3 million on luxury vehicles, over $6 million on homes in Las Vegas and Los Angeles, and hundreds of thousands of dollars on penthouse suites and high-end retail purchases.
Authorities said he also transferred at least $800,000 and 100 BTC to a family member.
Related: Sam Bankman-Fried claims Biden DOJ silenced witnesses during FTX trial
Civil charges and international reach
The scheme began to unravel as regulators scrutinized PGI’s trading claims and fund flows.
In April 2025, the Securities and Exchange Commission filed a civil complaint alleging that Palafox misrepresented PGI’s Bitcoin trading activity and used new investor money to pay earlier participants.
The complaint said PGI promoted an AI-powered trading platform and guaranteed daily returns despite lacking trading operations capable of generating those profits.
Federal prosecutors in the Eastern District of Virginia later unsealed criminal charges accusing Palafox of wire fraud and money laundering arising from the same conduct.
Authorities had seized the company’s website in 2021, and related operations were shut down in the United Kingdom, signaling cross-border enforcement scrutiny before the US criminal case advanced.
The DOJ said victims may be eligible for restitution and directed them to the US Attorney’s Office website for information on filing claims.
Magazine: Hong Kong stablecoins in Q1, BitConnect kidnapping arrests: Asia Express
Crypto World
Ark Invest buys $18 million of crypto stocks including 10th consecutive Bullish (BLSH) purchase
Ark Invest added another $18 million worth of crypto-adjacent stocks to its holdings on Thursday, including a $2 million purchase of shares in cryptocurrency exchange Bullish (BLSH).
The St. Petersburg, Florida-based company also bought $12 million worth of crypto-friendly trading platform Robinhood (HOOD) and $4 million worth of ether treasury firm Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), according to an emailed disclosure on Friday.
Ark’s investment in Bullish, the parent company of CoinDesk, extends its run of consecutive equity purchases in the crypto exchange to 10 days. Bullish shares fell 0.53% to $31.71 on Thursday.
BLSH shares have lifted from a trough of around $24 on Feb. 5 to trade either side of the $30 mark over the last week. They remain, however, more than 16% lower year-to-date.
HOOD shares fell 8.9% on Thursday, closing at $71.12 as U.S tech stocks sank, taking bitcoin with them.
Bitmine defied the broader market to rise 1.39% to $19.74.
The CEO of Praetorian Group International (PGI) was sentenced to 20 years in prison in the U.S. for running a global Ponzi scheme that falsely claimed to invest in bitcoin and foreign exchange trading.
Ramil Ventura Palafox, 61, promised daily returns of up to 3%, misleading more than 90,000 investors and draining over $62.7 million in funds, according to a Thursday statement from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Virginia.
PGI collected more than $201 million from investors between late 2019 and 2021, including over 8,000 bitcoin , according to court records. Instead of investing the money, prosecutors said Palafox used new investor funds to pay old ones while siphoning millions for himself.
To keep the illusion going, Palafox built an online portal where investors could track their supposed profits, with numbers that were entirely fabricated.
In reality, Palafox was buying Lamborghinis, luxury homes in Las Vegas and Los Angeles and penthouse suites at high-end hotels. Prosecutors say he spent $3 million on luxury cars and another $3 million on designer clothing, watches, and jewelry.
The case was investigated by the FBI and IRS. Victims may be eligible for restitution. The SEC is pursuing civil penalties, and Palafox remains banned from handling securities.
Ethereum price continues to lag its 2021 peak as institutions rotate cautiously into ETH exposure while weighing ETF flows, on-chain activity, and broader macro risk.
Summary
- BlackRock lifts its Bitmine stake 166% to $246M, doubling down on a levered Ethereum price proxy even as ETH trades ~60% below its peak and Bitmine stock is down ~70%.
- Vitalik Buterin and Stani Kulechov recently sold millions in ETH while BlackRock and Goldman Sachs add exposure via Bitmine and Ethereum ETFs, treating the drawdown as opportunity.
- BlackRock’s thesis leans on Ethereum’s dominance in tokenized real‑world assets, with Larry Fink calling tokenization “necessary” as BTC, ETH and SOL trade as high‑beta macro risk proxies.
BlackRock is leaning into the pain on Ethereum (ETH) price, quietly ramping up its exposure to Bitmine even as blue‑chip crypto names slide and prominent insiders head for the exits.
BlackRock’s leveraged Ethereum bet
According to a 13F‑HR filing collated by Fintel, BlackRock’s Bitmine stake jumped 166% in Q4 2025 to about $246 million, cementing the asset manager as a key backer of the Ethereum‑heavy treasury vehicle. Bitmine, the second‑largest digital asset treasury firm and a levered proxy on Ether, has seen its own stock price crater nearly 70% over six months to roughly $20 per share. The move drew an approving response from Bitmine chair Tom Lee, who has publicly floated a $250,000 price target for Ethereum and responded with clapping emojis to the disclosure in a post on X.
BlackRock’s buying spree lands as Ethereum trades just under $2,000, roughly 60% below its August peak, with Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick warning the token could drop a further 25% toward $1,400. “The best investment opportunities in crypto have presented themselves after declines,” Lee said on Monday, after Bitmine added another $80 million of Ether to its already underwater position, which is sitting on at least $6.6 billion in paper losses.
Insiders sell, Wall Street buys
February has seen crypto pioneers unload sizable Ether positions, even as Wall Street leans in. Ethereum co‑founder Vitalik Buterin sold at least $7 million worth of ETH last week to fund new initiatives, while Aave founder Stani Kulechov offloaded more than $8 million. At the same time, Goldman Sachs disclosed holdings of just over $1 billion in Ethereum exchange‑traded funds, joining BlackRock in treating the drawdown as an entry point.
BlackRock’s conviction rests on tokenisation. In January, the firm said Ethereum will lead the tokenisation of real‑world assets, noting that around 66% of all tokenised instruments sit on Ethereum, compared with about 10% on BNB Chain, 5% on Solana, 4% on Arbitrum, 4% on Stellar, and 3% on Avalanche. CEO Larry Fink has called tokenisation “necessary,” arguing in Davos that the goal is to bring “the entire financial system on one common blockchain.”
Market backdrop and key levels
The broader tape remains fragile. Bitcoin is down about 0.7% over the past 24 hours, trading near $66,582, while Ethereum has slipped roughly 0.4% to around $1,955. Spot dashboards show Bitcoin changing hands close to $66,618 with roughly $44.9 billion in 24‑hour volume, as Ethereum hovers near $1,961 on about $20.1 billion traded. Solana, another high‑beta proxy for crypto risk, trades around $192, with leading centralized exchanges printing quotes in the $191–$193 band on heavy liquidity.
This parabolic move comes as digital assets continue to trade as the purest expression of macro risk appetite. Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $66,600, with a 24‑hour range roughly between $65,000 and $68,400, on more than $30 billion in dollar volumes. Ethereum (ETH) changes hands close to $1,960, with about $20 billion in 24‑hour turnover and spot quotes clustering just below the $2,000 mark. Solana (SOL) trades near $192, fractionally lower on the day, with leading venues reporting individual pairs clearing hundreds of millions in volume.
For now, BlackRock is treating the selloff as structural opportunity rather than terminal decline, aligning its Bitmine bet with a broader thesis that Ethereum’s role in real‑world asset rails will outlast this drawdown.
Bitcoin rose to test $67,000 early Friday and was quickly rebuffed, though it remains about 1% higher since midnight UTC with ether rising half as much. The derivatives market, too, is showing signs of positivity.
The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is little changed, up just 0.7% in the period.
While the gains mark a recovery from yesterday’s U.S. trading, which saw the cryptocurrency market fall back toward last week’s lows, bitcoin is still on track for a fourth straight week of declines. That’s the longest falling streak since mid-November.
Meantime, a slowdown in trading and fading volatility are weighing on volumes.
It’s likely that traders are looking to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) print coming later today for hints on direction. A higher-than-forecast reading could lift bond yields and the dollar, putting additional pressure on risk assets. A lower reading might signal the easier conditions that are more conducive to risk-taking.
Even so, it will take quite a jump to push the bitcoin price to $85,000, a level that Deribiti’s chief commercial officer, Jean-David Péquignot, said would signal the largest cryptocurrency’s long-term rally is no longer “broken.”
Derivatives
- The market is showing signs of renewed life as open interest (OI) dropped to $15.5 billion, suggesting a cleanup of late-cycle leverage.
- Perpetual funding rates have flipped neutral to positive across all venues, now ranging between 0% and 8%. This broader optimism is being mirrored by institutions, as the three-month annualized basis spiked to just over 3%, signaling the first real uptick in professional conviction.
- The bitcoin options market shows returning call volume at 65%, even as the one-week 25-delta skew eased to 17.9%. Despite this “bottom-fishing” activity, the implied volatility (IV) term structure remains in short-term backwardation, confirming that traders are still paying a high “panic premium” for immediate downside protection.
- Coinglass data shows $256 million in 24-hour liquidations, split 69-31 between longs and shorts. Bitcoin ($112 million), ether ($52 million) and others ($16 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
- The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $68,800 as a core liquidation level to monitor in case of a price rise.
Token Talk
- PUMP, the token of Solana-based memecoin launchpad Pump.fun, is up more than 5% in the past 24 hours.
- The platform rolled out a new way for token communities to allocate fees directly through its mobile app with the inclusion of GitHub account integration.
- The integration offers a simpler way for creators to assign automatic payouts generated by a token’s community, and more social features are expected to be introduced in the future.
- In practice, this means communities can start supporting creators on GitHub through a portion of the fees generated. To receive the fees, creators will need to claim them through the platform’s mobile app.
- Pump.fun was largely behind a major memecoin trading frenzy early last year that saw its monthly trading volume surge past $11 billion. Volume has since plunged to $1 billion last month, according to DeFiLlama data.
- Bitcoin saw spot ETF outflows of over $410 million as prices struggled.
- Over $2.5 billion in Bitcoin options expired on Friday.
- Analysts say “worst of downturn” likely over but market remains bearish.
Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of over $410 million on February 12, as investors withdrew capital from the exchange-traded funds amid growing fears of a broader crypto market downturn.
And on Friday morning, Feb. 13, BTC price fluctuated near $66,800 as the market recorded a massive $2.5 billion Bitcoin options expiry.
Crypto analysts have shared their thoughts on what this could mean for the Bitcoin price in the short term.
Bitcoin ETF outflows and $2.5 billion options expiry
Data showed that on US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of over $410 million yesterday, with none of the 12 spot ETFs notching net inflows.
BlackRock’s IBIT led with nearly $158 million, Fidelity’s FBTC had $104 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC had over $59 million in exits.
This marked the second consecutive day of redemptions, following $276 million on February 11.
Institutional investors are pulling back amid Bitcoin’s struggles around the $67,500-$65,450 range.
The fresh ETF outflows coincide with a pivotal weekly options expiry at 08:00 UTC on Feb. 13.
Approximately 38,000 Bitcoin contracts worth $2.5 billion in notional value have expired, primarily on Deribit, with a put/call ratio of 0.72 and maximum pain near $74,000.
Ethereum also saw 215,000 ETH options worth $410 million expire, with a put/call ratio of 0.82 and a maximum pain point at $2,100.
These maximum pain points are at values well above spot BTC and ETH levels, and likely the driver of downward pressure as market makers look to hedge delta exposure on out-of-the-money calls.
February 13 Options Expiration Data
38,000 BTC options expired with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.71, maximum pain point at $74,000, and notional value of $2.5 billion.
215,000 ETH options expired with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.82, maximum pain point at $2,100, and notional value of $410… pic.twitter.com/07TKfJxmMi— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) February 13, 2026
Bitcoin price prediction
The ETF outflows and broader market weakness hinder bulls, and sentiment is skewed bearish, analysts say.
“Today saw the expiration of options accounting for 9% of total open interest, totaling nearly $2.9 billion. This week, implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum has declined, with BTC’s main-term IV at 50% and ETH’s at 70%. While the downward price trend has moderated, market confidence remains weak,” analysts at Greeks.live noted via X.
Despite this outlook, the market may have “the most violent leg of the downturn” behind it. If sentiment improves, prices could pick up an upside trajectory.
In this case, a relief rally to above the critical $70,000 mark is likely.
However, ETF bleeding and macroeconomic headwinds could greatly cap upside momentum.
On Thursday, Standard Chartered forecast Bitcoin price could retest $50k before rising to $100k by the end of 2026. The bank cites ETF outflows, macro pressures and broader risk asset sentiment as negative catalysts.
$410M outflows in a single day.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged their 4th straight week of bleeding.
AUM down from $170B (Oct ‘25 peak) to ~ $80B.
At the same time, Standard Chartered cuts 2026 BTC target from $150K → $100K and warns of a possible $50K flush first.
ETH ETFs… pic.twitter.com/H9W8lmAvRq
— Dear Bitcoiner ⚡️ (@DearBitcoiner) February 13, 2026
Notably, BTC tested support at $60k this month, and the elevated implied volatility, coupled with ETF exits, signals aggressive downside protection.
If outflows continue amid other highlighted downside triggers, the $50k level could be the next target.
TLDR:
- AVAX completed Wave 1 between $8-$5, now entering Wave 2 recovery phase within descending channel
- CryptoPatel targets $33, $58, $97, and $147 representing potential 2,489% expansion from bottom
- Critical support at $5.50 must hold on weekly close to maintain bullish Elliott Wave structure
- Analysis suggests multi-year setup through 2026-2027 suited for spot accumulation and patience
AVAX traders are monitoring a technical analysis that suggests the token could target $147 in the coming years. Crypto analyst CryptoPatel has identified an Elliott Wave formation on the weekly chart, indicating a possible recovery phase after a 95% correction from the 2021 all-time high.
The analysis places AVAX at a critical inflection point, with the asset trading within a multi-year descending channel.
Price action currently hovers near $8.86, presenting what the analyst describes as a macro support accumulation zone.
Technical Structure Shows Wave Completion
The technical framework outlined by CryptoPatel centers on Elliott Wave theory applied to AVAX’s weekly timeframe. According to the analysis shared on X, Wave 1 completed between $8 and $5, marking a macro bottom for the current cycle.
The token now enters what the analyst labels as Wave 2, representing an early recovery phase from the previous correction.
The descending channel formation has contained price action since the 2021 peak. This pattern shows a bearish breakdown followed by a retest of the lower trendline, creating what technical analysts call a deviation setup.
Market structure at these levels suggests accumulation by institutional participants, though this remains speculative based on price behavior rather than confirmed data.
Support zones have formed between $8 and $7, coinciding with weekly demand areas. The liquidity sweep into these zones mirrors fractal patterns from previous market cycles.
Additionally, the compression phase resembles historical accumulation periods that preceded major rallies in past bull markets.
Price Targets Extend Beyond $100 Mark
CryptoPatel’s forecast includes four distinct targets as the Elliott Wave structure potentially unfolds through 2026 and 2027. The progression starts at $33, followed by $58, then $97, before reaching a final target of $147.
These levels correspond to the mid-channel resistance and eventual upper boundary of the descending formation. From the identified bottom to the highest target, the expansion measures approximately 2,489%.
The bullish scenario requires sustained weekly strength with expansion toward mid-channel resistance zones. Price must demonstrate momentum capable of breaking through overhead supply levels that accumulated during the extended correction. However, the analysis also establishes clear invalidation parameters to manage risk exposure.
The critical support level sits at $5.50, representing the Wave 1 low. A weekly close beneath this threshold would negate the Elliott Wave count and suggest further downside potential. This makes the $5.50 level essential for bulls to defend on higher timeframes.
The analyst characterizes this setup as appropriate for spot accumulation and long-term positioning rather than short-term trading.
The asymmetric risk-reward profile stems from proximity to identified support versus the distance to upside targets.
Patience remains necessary as weekly timeframe patterns develop over extended periods, typically spanning months or years rather than days or weeks.
Coinbase earnings just broke its streak, and not in a good way. After eight straight winning quarters, it posted a brutal $667 million net loss in Q4 2025. That is a punch to the face.
As crypto prices slid from their yearly highs, the exchange completely missed Wall Street revenue expectations.
Revenue came in at $1.78 billion. Sounds big, but it was below the $1.85 billion analysts expected. Transaction revenue was the real damage. Down 37% to $982.7 million.
That tells you everything about trader activity right now.
Key Takeaways
- Coinbase reported a $667 million net loss, its first profit miss since Q3 2023.
- Revenue fell 21.5% YoY to $1.78 billion, missing analyst expectations.
- Transaction fees plummeted 37% as retail traders exited the market.
- Shares (COIN) dipped 7.9% intraday but rebounded nearly 3% after hours.
Is the Bull Market Officially Over? How Coinbase Can Survive It
That $667 million loss is not just a bad quarter. It screams deeper cycle weakness. A big chunk of it came from unrealized losses on Coinbase own crypto holdings after prices collapsed from the October 2025 highs.
When Bitcoin falls from nearly $126,000 to the mid $60k range, nobody walks away clean. Not even the exchanges.
This kind of volatility feels similar to the uncertainty during the FTX fallout days. Brian Armstrong is still calling this downturn psychological.
An overview of our Q4 and full year 2025 financial results. — Coinbase
With something extra to keep you focused. pic.twitter.com/LehRsH1Yjn
(@coinbase) February 12, 2026
Retail traders are barely active. Transaction revenue, which is the core engine of the business, dried up as volume vanished.
Casual money is staying on the sidelines. And that is the last thing Coinbase needed.
Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio
COIN Stock Resilience or Dead Cat Bounce?
Even after that ugly earnings report, COIN stock actually climbed 2.9% in after-hours, sitting near $145. Sounds crazy, right?
But the stock had already dropped 7.9% during the regular session. Traders probably priced in the disaster before the numbers even hit.
Still, the outlook is not exactly comforting. Subscription and services revenue was the only real bright spot, up 13% to $727.4 million.
That helped soften the blow. But management is already guiding lower for Q1 2026, expecting that figure to fall into the $550 to $630 million range. That is not small.
If even the so-called stable revenue starts shrinking, the safety cushion gets thin fast. And if that happens, a retest of the $139 zone, near the 52-week lows, would not be surprising at all.
Discover: What is the next crypto to explode?
The post Coinbase Reports $667M Q4 Loss as Crypto Market Downturn Hits Revenues appeared first on Cryptonews.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw heightened selling on Thursday, with outflows accelerating the same day Standard Chartered lowered its 2026 Bitcoin forecast.
Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs recorded $410.4 million in outflows, extending weekly losses to $375.1 million, according to SoSoValue data.
Unless Friday brings substantial inflows, the funds are on track for a fourth consecutive week of losses, with assets under management (AUM) nearing $80 billion, down from a peak of almost $170 billion in October 2025.
The selling coincided with Standard Chartered lowering its 2026 Bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000, warning that prices could fall to $50,000 before recovering.
“We expect further price capitulation over the next few months,” the bank said in a Thursday report shared with Cointelegraph, forecasting Bitcoin to drop to $50,000 and Ether (ETH) to $1,400.
“Once those lows are reached, we expect a price recovery for the remainder of the year,” Standard Chartered added, projecting year-end prices for BTC and ETH at $100,000 and $4,000, respectively.
Solana ETFs the only winners amid heavy crypto ETF outflows
Negative sentiment persisted across all 11 Bitcoin ETF products, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund suffering the largest outflows of $157.6 million and $104.1 million, respectively, according to Farside.
Ether ETFs faced similar pressure, with $113.1 million in daily outflows dragging weekly outflows to $171.4 million, marking a potential fourth consecutive week of losses.
XRP (XRP) ETFs saw their first outflows of $6.4 million since Feb. 3, while Solana (SOL) ETFs bucked the trend, recording a minor $2.7 million in inflows.
Extreme bear phase not yet here as analysts expect $55,000 bottom
Standard Chartered’s latest Bitcoin forecast follows previous analyst forecasts that Bitcoin could dip below $60,000 before testing a recovery.
Crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant reiterated that realized price support remains at around $55,000 and has not yet been tested.
“Bitcoin’s ultimate bear market bottom is around $55,000 today,” CryptoQuant said in a weekly update shared with Cointelegraph.
“Market cycle indicators remain in the bear phase, not extreme bear phase,” CryptoQuant noted, adding: “Our Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has not entered the Extreme Bear regime that historically marks the start of bottoming processes, which typically persist for several months.”
Related: Bernstein calls Bitcoin sell-off ‘weakest bear case’ on record, keeps $150K 2026 target
Bitcoin hovered around $66,000 on Thursday, briefly dipping to $65,250, according to CoinGecko data.
Despite ongoing selling pressure, long-term holder (LTH) behavior does not indicate capitulation, with holders currently selling around breakeven. “Historical bear market bottoms formed when LTHs endured 30–40% losses, indicating further downside may be required for a full reset,” CryptoQuant added.
Magazine: Bitcoin difficulty plunges, Buterin sells off Ethereum: Hodler’s Digest, Feb. 1 – 7
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