TLDR:

• Bitcoin dropped to $63K within minutes of the Iran War breaking out, triggering over $515M in crypto liquidations.
  
• Gold surged past $5,200 as the Iran War intensified, with Bank of America forecasting a $6,000 per ounce target.
  
• The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil daily, and tankers are already halting movement amid the Iran War.
  
• Recession probability jumped from 25–30% to 40–50% as the Iran War threatens sustained disruption to global oil supply.
  

The Iran War has triggered an immediate financial shockwave across every major asset class. Open military conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran erupted on February 28, following explosions across Tehran, southern Lebanon, and near U.S. military bases.

President Trump declared “major combat operations” under Operation Epic Fury. Iran responded with missile strikes on Israeli and U.S. Gulf bases.

Investors across every market are now reassessing their positions as the situation continues to evolve hour by hour.

Stock Markets Face a Historic Test as War Escalates

The Iran War arrived at an already fragile moment for equities. The S&P 500 had turned negative for 2026 before the first strike even landed.

Bank of America held the most bearish S&P 500 outlook heading into the conflict, with a year-end target of just 7,100.

Historical data, however, offers a counterpoint worth noting. CFA Institute data shows U.S. large-cap stocks returned 11.9% annualized during wartime versus 10.0% during peacetime periods.

Across six major conflicts, the pattern has remained consistent — markets sell off before the war begins, then recover shortly after it starts.

The critical difference this time is oil. None of those previous wars directly threatened a supply corridor handling 20% of global crude.

If the Strait of Hormuz faces prolonged disruption, the historical “buy the war” playbook may not hold. Recession probability has already shifted from roughly 25–30% to an estimated 40–50%.

Bitcoin and Gold Split as Investors Seek Safety

Bitcoin dropped to approximately $63,000 within minutes of the Iran War breaking out, falling 3.8% almost immediately.

Over $515 million in crypto liquidations followed, erasing roughly $128 billion from total market capitalization. Ethereum fell 5.5%, with $149 million in ETH futures liquidations recorded by CoinGlass.

Gold, by contrast, surged past $5,200 and settled near $5,296 in the same window. Silver climbed 7.85% alongside it.

Gold had already gained 13.31% in January alone, reflecting a months-long trend driven by central bank buying and growing de-dollarization momentum.

The divergence between the two assets tells a clear short-term story. Bitcoin is trading like a risk-on asset, absorbing panic selling during weekend hours when no other liquid market is open.

Gold is functioning as the traditional safe haven. Bank of America expects gold to reach $6,000 per ounce over the next 12 months, and every current macro condition supports that trajectory.

Oil Prices and Economic Fallout Determine What Comes Next

The Iran War’s economic consequences hinge almost entirely on what happens at the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass through it daily, covering Qatar’s LNG, UAE crude, and most of Kuwait and Iraq’s exports.

Tanker traffic has already slowed, with Japanese shipping firm Nippon Yusen directing its full fleet away from the strait.

Brent crude closed the prior Friday at $72.48, while WTI jumped to $75.33, up 12% in a single session. Lombard Odier estimates a temporary spike to $100 per barrel is plausible under current conditions.

A sustained 20–30% oil price increase could depress global growth by 0.5–1.0% and push headline inflation higher by a similar margin.

The chain reaction from there runs through the entire economy. Higher oil raises costs across transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods. Spending contracts, confidence falls, and growth slows.

The Federal Reserve, already stuck with rates at 3.5%–3.75% and inflation near 3%, has little room to respond. If Brent remains below $90, markets may stabilize. Above $100 sustained, the road through 2026 becomes considerably rougher.

Bitcoin’s future in an artificial intelligence-driven world may depend less on code and more on central banks.

In a new note, Greg Cipolaro, global head of research at financial services and infrastructure firm NYDIG, argued that artificial intelligence will affect bitcoin mainly through macroeconomic channels and its impact on the labor market.

The key variables are growth, employment, real interest rates and liquidity. Bitcoin, he writes, sits downstream of those forces.

If automation cuts jobs and wages, consumer demand could weaken and, in a severe case, falling incomes would strain debt payments and pressure asset prices.

Those fears appear to be well-grounded. Just this week, Jack Dorsey’s fintech firm Block unveiled its shrinking back toward its pre-pandemic size, cutting staff by about 40%. Dorsey cited AI-enabled efficiency for the job cuts, something that was theorized in Citrini’s research on the AI-doom that spooked the market this week.

In such a scenario, policymakers might respond with lower rates or fiscal spending to stabilize the economy. That wave of liquidity could support bitcoin, which has often tracked shifts in global money supply.

A different outcome would look less friendly for the cryptocurrency. If AI boosts productivity and economic growth without major job losses, real yields could rise, and central banks might keep policy tight.

Higher real rates have historically weighed on bitcoin by raising the opportunity cost of holding it and making risk assets less attractive.

Shift in demand

Anxiety around AI echoes past moments of upheaval in Human society.

The steam engine displaced manual labor in factories and on farms. Electrification then rewired entire industries. Later, computers and the internet automated clerical work and reshaped retail, media and finance.

Each wave triggered fears of permanent job loss. In the early 1900s, factory mechanization sparked labor unrest as machines replaced skilled craftsmen. In the 1980s and 1990s, personal computers cut typist pools and back-office staff. More recently, e-commerce helped hollow out brick-and-mortar retail roles.

Yet aggregate demand did not collapse. Productivity rose. New industries absorbed displaced workers, even if the transition proved uneven and painful. Nowadays, we have industries that were unthinkable before the dawn of the internet. Think cloud computing.

Cipolaro argued AI may follow a similar pattern. As a general-purpose technology, it requires firms to redesign workflows and invest in complementary tools. Over time, that process tends to expand productive capacity rather than shrink it.

“The implication is not that disruption will be painless, but that the equilibrium response to new technology has historically been integration, not obsolescence,” Cipolaro wrote. “Society’s response to AI will likely follow the same pattern.”

For bitcoin, that distinction matters. If AI ultimately lifts long-term growth, the structural backdrop could differ from the short-term shocks that often drive liquidity injections.

Meanwhile, adoption may also rise thanks to agentic payments, which would essentially see software pay other pieces of software without human involvement. One of Bitcoin’s earliest visions centered on machine-to-machine payments, and AI may be the necessary tool to make them a reality.

Still, incentives aren’t currently there for a widespread rollout. Credit cards bundle rewards and short-term credit, features that stablecoins do not yet match, Cipolaro noted.

Ultimately, while the rise of AI brings new challenges, what matters is the human response to the disruption it brings. If AI triggers a deflationary shock and forces the money printer to turn back on, or if it fuels a productivity boom that raises real yields, bitcoin will reflect that.

A tip to Homeland Security unraveled a multi-wallet laundering scheme, which ultimately resulted in a $61 million Tether confiscation.

US federal agents have seized more than $61 million worth of USDT. Investigators traced the seized funds to cryptocurrency addresses allegedly linked to the laundering of criminal proceeds obtained through “pig butchering” schemes.

According to the official press release, the funds were connected to scams in which victims were recruited and manipulated into transferring money under false pretenses.

Romance, Fake Profits, and $61M in USDT

Court filings state that criminal actors targeted victims by establishing trust and often posed as romantic partners. After gaining victims’ confidence, the scammers claimed to have specialized knowledge or techniques that could generate massive profits through cryptocurrency trading.

Victims were directed to fraudulent cryptocurrency trading platforms that closely resembled legitimate platforms in name and appearance. These fake platforms displayed fabricated investment portfolios and showed unusually high returns in order to encourage victims to invest increasing amounts of money.

When victims attempted to withdraw their funds, they were unable to do so and were frequently told they needed to pay additional “taxes” or “fees” to release their assets. According to authorities, these tactics were used to extract more money from victims.

Once funds were transferred to cryptocurrency wallets controlled by the scammers, the money was rapidly moved through multiple wallets to conceal its source, ownership, and control. In this case, Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) agents and analysts in Raleigh received a complaint through the HSI Tip Line and traced the victim’s funds through several cryptocurrency wallets involved in the alleged fraud and money laundering scheme.

Authorities also revealed that some of those wallets still held significant amounts of victims’ funds, making them subject to seizure and forfeiture.

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Crackdowns

Tether has been involved in several financial crime investigations in coordination with international law enforcement agencies. The stablecoin issuer has assisted efforts to track, freeze, and support the seizure of illicit funds. On July 22, 2025, the US Department of Justice announced a civil forfeiture action against Buy Cash Money and Money Transfer Company that involved freezing and reissuing $1.6 million in USDT allegedly tied to Gaza-based terror financing.

In June 2025, Brazilian authorities recognized Tether’s assistance in blocking approximately $6.2 million, connected to a cross-border money-laundering scheme conducted through Klever Wallet. Also in June 2025, the Department of Justice and OKX enabled a civil forfeiture complaint seeking to seize roughly $225 million in USDT allegedly linked to pig butchering investment scams. In March 2025, the United States Secret Service froze $23 million in funds associated with transactions on the Russian-sanctioned exchange Garantex.

BTC has completely turned the tables around during this highly volatile day.

The intense volatility in the cryptocurrency markets continues as bitcoin just shot up to $67,000 after plunging to $63,000 this morning.

The most likely reason for all the Saturday fluctuations is the quickly escalating situation in the Middle East, and the latest reports hinting at a regime change in Iran.

It all started this morning when Israel and the USA carried out several attacks against Iran. The Middle East country retaliated against several nations in the region, including the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

In the following hours, more reports began to unravel, and the latest big development on the matter indicated that Iran’s supreme leader had been killed. So far, though, the information is coming only from Israeli sources and there’s no official confirmation.

US President Donald Trump also addressed the situation recently, warning that he could end it all in a matter of days and warned of further military actions if Iran doesn’t scale back on its nuclear development.

BREAKING: President Trump is floating several “off ramps” for Iran just hours after the strikes launched by Israel and the US, per Axios.

Trump says:

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1. He can end the situation in “two or three days”

2. This would involve threatening Iran with further military action if they… https://t.co/xQf5c7nmjb

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 28, 2026

Since the cryptocurrency market is the only financial industry operating during the weekend, it endured significant volatility as the events unfolded. After the initial strikes, bitcoin plunged from $66,000 to $63,000 within minutes, and the altcoins followed suit.

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However, it rebounded in the following hours and even jumped to $67,000 minutes ago after the reports about Khamenei’s death.

[PRESS RELEASE – Dubai, United Arab Emirates, February 28th, 2026]

KAI Exchange, the world’s leading AI-native cryptocurrency trading platform, says it has received a mysterious message from Satoshi Nakamoto: “April 5th is not Satoshi Nakamoto’s birthday (that belongs to Changpeng Zhao); Satoshi’s real birthday is March 1st.”

Upon receiving this confidential message, KAI Exchange immediately decided to host the “Satoshi Nakamoto Birthday Bash” on March 1, inviting users to join in and become part of a historic moment.

Event Manifesto:

“March 1, 2026, marks the birthday of our beloved Satoshi Nakamoto. Seize this historic opportunity to create an unprecedented myth in Bitcoin history—the legend of 49 Chain Web4.

All future realities will follow the historical traces left on March 1, 2026! Pay tribute to the visionary spirit of Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto.”

During the event, KAI officially released a striking market forecast: the BTC/USAD trading pair on its platform is expected to challenge an all-time high of 4,927,000 on the day of the event, positioning itself as a market focal point.

The KAI operations team stated that this birthday celebration is not only a tribute to the spirit of Bitcoin but also an innovative exploration of the integration between artificial intelligence and the cryptocurrency market. Through AI-driven market predictions, community engagement, and festive reward mechanisms, KAI aims to deliver a trading experience that combines cutting-edge technology, active participation, and market insight for users worldwide.

As a centralized virtual asset exchange powered by AI at its core, KAI deeply integrates artificial intelligence across all aspects of its operations—from token selection and market trend identification to strategy execution and customer support—providing users with a fast, secure, and intelligent trading experience. Looking ahead, KAI will continue to explore the potential of integrating AI with finance, working hand in hand with users to build a new Web4.0 financial world driven by intelligence.

About USAD:

USAD, as KAI’s native stablecoin, operates on the TOK chain and is a dollar-pegged stablecoin backed by reserve assets. USAD provides rapid settlement and open access capabilities for the KAI platform, serving as a crucial financial cornerstone for the efficient operation of the platform’s ecosystem. USAD: Stable, Transparent, Born for Web 4.0.

For more information on how to participate and event details, please visit KAI’s official website at Kai.com.

A Bitcoin (BTC) bottom signal that appeared in 2023, ahead of a 130% rally in 2024, has flashed again this week, raising the possibility that the price is nearing another bullish inflection point. 

At the same time, the broader data of liquidity, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, and macroeconomic data changes the environment from two years ago, suggesting that the path forward may not mirror the previous cycle’s.

BTC bottom trigger appears without strong follow-through

Data aggregator Swissblock noted that Bitcoin has now logged 25 consecutive days in its “extreme high risk” zone, the longest stretch on record and above the 23-day peak seen in 2023. Historically, an extended stay in this zone has aligned with late-stage drawdowns or a bottom signal.

MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe also pointed to the BTC versus supply in the profit/loss chart, which shows the price interacting with levels that previously marked bottoming phases. In 2023, the shift from high risk to low risk coincided with the start of a powerful bullish expansion.

Trader positioning is not in sync with an uptrend. RugaResearch noted that 30-day apparent demand continues to flip between positive and negative. While the selling pressure has faded, sustained buying demand has not maintained its dominance.

Related: Bitcoin to $30K? Analysts debate when and at what price BTC will bottom

Deeper Bitcoin drawdowns take time

Macroeconomic newsletter Ecoinometrics highlighted that a BTC decline of this magnitude rarely resolves quickly. Excluding the 2020 COVID rally, which was supported by aggressive monetary policy intervention, the recoveries from 50% drawdowns developed over an extended period.

The ETF flow data reinforces the cautious tone. Since August, cumulative inflows into gold ETFs have surpassed spot Bitcoin ETF flows on a 90-day rolling basis. Over the same period, Bitcoin funds have posted negative flows on a 90-day average rolling basis, currently sitting at –$2.06 billion. 

The inflation trends added further context. Ecoinometrics noted that the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) sits near 2.9% year-on-year, with core near 3.0% and core services above 3.4%. The Federal Reserve targets PCE, and the recent trend has not shown a clear downward shift. Without easing expectations, the liquidity expansion looks limited.

The price levels frame the debate. CMCC Crest Managing Partner Willy Woo said that any short-term relief rally to $70,000 to $80,000 is likely to be met with another round of selling pressure, since “the broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating”.

Woo said that the $45,000 level aligns with the prior bear market. Below that, $30,000 and $16,000 mark the historical support, which is tied to longer-term trend preservation. 

Related: Crypto taxes updated, BTC stuck below $70K: Month in charts