Gold has surged back above $5,400 an ounce in early trading following US missile strikes on Iran, prompting fresh speculation over whether the precious metal could break through $6,000 in the coming weeks.

The renewed rally comes after a volatile start to the year for bullion. Gold hit a record high of more than $5,550 in late January, before tumbling sharply to around $4,700 by early February. Silver followed a similar path, sliding from above $120 to roughly $82. Both metals are now climbing again, with silver edging back toward $100.

The latest spike follows coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend, which reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggered retaliatory action by Tehran against US allies in the Gulf. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz,  a critical artery for global oil supplies, have intensified, pushing oil and safe-haven assets higher.

Market analysts describe the situation as a “classic risk-off scenario”, with investors flocking to traditional stores of value amid fears of broader regional escalation, oil supply disruption and renewed inflationary pressures.

Cameron Parry, founder and CEO of TallyMoney, said the moves were entirely consistent with previous geopolitical crises.

“Both the oil and gold price were up Monday morning, as the Strait of Hormuz and safe-haven assets became the point of focus for markets,” he said. “Geopolitical crises like the one unfolding currently will invariably apply upward pressure on the gold price and that’s precisely what is happening this time round.

“We are in a classic risk-off scenario and gold is the classic go-to asset. Gold was already benefiting from strong demand globally, not just from central banks but also retail investors keen to get exposure in an increasingly volatile geopolitical climate.

“That demand could now spike further as nations and individuals alike seek the safety of the world’s ultimate store of value. Few would bet against gold.”

Riz Malik, director at R3 Wealth, said the scale of any further gains would depend heavily on how long the conflict lasts and how Iran responds.

“Monday morning immediately saw a sharp rise in the demand for gold,” he said. “How much it will rise will depend on how prolonged this campaign is and the level of the Iranian retaliation.

“Once again global instability has been pushed to Defcon 4 and that only means one thing for precious metals. Namely, their price is set to go up.”

However, not all analysts believe a rapid surge to $6,000 is imminent.

Tony Redondo, founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange, said that while the $6,000 mark is conceivable in the near term, it would require sustained escalation.

“Even before Saturday’s military operations in Iran, the price of gold had catapulted up to the $5,300 level, but hitting $6,000 by next week would require a 15 per cent surge, a feat usually reserved for total systemic collapse,” he said.

“However, while $6,000 is unlikely within days, it is a high-probability target for March or April, especially if the Strait of Hormuz is compromised on a longer-term basis or the conflict broadens.”

Redondo added that silver’s structural supply deficit could amplify its price reaction. “Silver is closing in on $100 and its supply constraints make $120 a realistic target in the months ahead as a coiled spring reaction to geopolitical fear,” he said, cautioning that sharp rallies often invite profit-taking.

Others argue that while geopolitical shocks can act as catalysts, deeper macroeconomic forces will ultimately determine gold’s trajectory.

Anita Wright, chartered financial planner at Ribble Wealth Management, said structural pressures in the US financial system were equally important.

“This weekend’s missile strikes will undoubtedly affect the gold price, but it is important not to confuse a catalyst with the underlying driver,” she said. “Gold does not move to $6,000 because of a single weekend’s events. It moves there, if it does, because of monetary conditions.

“The US faces trillions in refinancing requirements alongside persistent fiscal deficits. Foreign appetite for US Treasuries shows visible strain, long-dated yields are rising, and equity valuations remain stretched. History tells us that when bond yields rise into an overvalued equity market, instability follows.”

Wright said that while an immediate jump to $6,000 was unlikely, materially higher gold prices over the medium term were plausible if bond market stress intensifies and the Federal Reserve returns to liquidity support.

Nouran Moustafa, practice principal and IFA at Roxton Wealth, urged investors not to chase sharp moves driven by headlines.

“Gold was expected to open higher as investors moved into safe havens after the latest escalation, and so it did,” she said. “However, a jump to $6,000 in days would require something far more severe such as direct energy supply disruption or broader financial market stress.

“Without that, we’re more likely to see sharp volatility than a sustained vertical rally.”

She warned that emotional investing during times of geopolitical stress can be costly. “Gold can act as portfolio insurance, but chasing rapid spikes rarely ends well. Sensible allocation and risk management matter more than reacting emotionally to breaking news.”

With tensions in the Middle East showing little sign of easing and global markets already on edge, gold’s next move will likely hinge on whether the conflict remains contained — or spills into something far more disruptive for energy markets and global growth.

Amy Ingham

Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.

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There might also be a more direct impact on food. “Some elements of crude oil are used in fertiliser, and so there could be a cost implication in terms of food prices,” Benjamin Goodwin, partner at banking advisory firm PRISM Strategic Intelligence told the BBC.

NVIDIA Corp. shares pulled back in recent trading despite the company posting record-breaking fiscal 2026 results and issuing upbeat guidance, as Wall Street parsed details on capital allocation, China export dynamics and the rapid evolution of AI infrastructure demand.

The chipmaker’s stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) closed at $177.19 on Feb. 27, 2026, down $7.70 or 4.16% from the prior session, with after-hours activity showing further softening to around $173. Shares have traded in a range of $173.13 to $182.59 recently, retreating from a pre-earnings peak near $195. The pullback follows a strong run, with the stock still up significantly year-to-date amid the ongoing AI boom, though it sits below its 52-week high of $212.19.

NVIDIA reported fiscal fourth-quarter results on Feb. 25, delivering record revenue of $68.1 billion, up 20% sequentially and 73% year-over-year. Full-year fiscal 2026 revenue reached $215.9 billion, a 65% increase from the prior year. Data center revenue — the AI powerhouse segment — hit $62.3 billion in the quarter, surging 22% from the previous period and 75% annually, while full-year data center sales totaled $193.7 billion, up dramatically from $15 billion in fiscal 2023.

Profitability remained exceptional, with GAAP earnings per diluted share at $1.76 and non-GAAP at $1.62 for the quarter. For the full year, GAAP EPS stood at $4.90 and non-GAAP at $4.77. Gross margins expanded to 71%, operating margins to 60.6% and net profit margins to 55.6%, generating $120.1 billion in net income for fiscal 2026.

CEO Jensen Huang highlighted the “agentic AI inflection point” and positioned NVIDIA’s platforms as leaders in both training and inference. The Grace Blackwell system with NVLink offers order-of-magnitude lower cost per token for inference, while the upcoming Vera Rubin platform — now in full production and set to ship in the second half of 2026 — promises up to 10x reductions in inference token costs compared to Blackwell.

Guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 called for revenue around $78 billion, plus or minus 2%, well ahead of consensus estimates and signaling continued acceleration despite concerns about potential slowdowns. The outlook excludes contributions from China, where export restrictions have complicated sales, though recent U.S. policy shifts have allowed certain chips like the H200 to resume shipments under conditions.

On March 2, NVIDIA announced a multiyear strategic partnership with Lumentum Holdings, including a $2 billion investment to advance optics technologies, R&D and U.S.-based manufacturing capacity for next-generation AI infrastructure. The deal aims to support innovations in data center optics and systems design, underscoring NVIDIA’s push to build out the full AI ecosystem.

Analysts remain largely bullish. Morgan Stanley suggested in late February that stocks like NVIDIA have “more room to run” in March, citing sustained AI demand. Some valuations point to significant upside: one analysis using free cash flow margins estimated potential for a $263 price target, implying nearly 50% gains from recent levels if high FCF generation persists amid projected 2026 revenue around $365 billion.

Yet the post-earnings dip reflects investor caution. Shares fell as much as 5.5% in the session following results, with some viewing the massive capital expenditures and ecosystem investments as delaying near-term shareholder returns. Questions linger about the pace of payoff from AI infrastructure buildouts and competition in inference-focused technologies. Technical indicators showed the stock dipping below key moving averages, potentially inviting further selling.

NVIDIA’s dominance in accelerated computing and generative AI continues to drive hyperscaler spending. Partnerships, including expanded deployments with Meta involving millions of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs, plus Grace CPUs for energy-efficient data centers, highlight the company’s ecosystem strength. Gaming revenue rose 47% year-over-year to $3.7 billion in the quarter, though it moderated sequentially after holiday demand.

The company maintains a quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share, payable April 1, 2026, to shareholders of record March 11. A substantial share repurchase authorization remains, with nearly $60 billion available as of recent filings.

Market capitalization hovers around $4.3 trillion, with a forward-looking valuation that some describe as stretched but justified by explosive growth. Dividend yield is minimal at 0.02%, appealing more to growth investors than income seekers.

As NVIDIA navigates the shift from AI training to inference and prepares for Vera Rubin’s rollout, the stock’s trajectory hinges on execution amid geopolitical factors and competitive pressures. Upcoming quarters will test whether the company’s unmatched position in AI chips can sustain its remarkable momentum.

Investors eye the next earnings cycle for updates on Blackwell production ramps, China contributions and Vera Rubin traction. For now, NVIDIA remains the bellwether of the AI era, even as volatility tests its post-earnings resilience.

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From the UK, flights have also been cancelled for many Middle East destinations, including all flights to Israel and Bahrain, three quarters of the day’s scheduled flights to the United Arab Emirates, and more than two thirds (69%) of flights to Qatar.