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Crypto, Iran War, and Oil Price: Geopolitical Shock Could Delay the Crypto Bull Run

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Crypto, Iran War, and Oil Price: Geopolitical Shock Could Delay the Crypto Bull Run

Crypto are under pressure as war around Iran intensifies and traders begin pricing in the unthinkable: disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

If that chokepoint closes, oil spikes. And if oil spikes, inflation follows. That puts the Federal Reserve in a corner, forcing rates to stay higher for longer.

Crypto is not immune. While there has been some speculative buying on regional capital flight headlines, the broader macro picture is heavy. Bitcoin is moving more in sync with traditional risk assets, not decoupling from them.

Instead of acting like digital gold, the market is behaving as if liquidity is the real safe haven. In a true energy shock scenario, the first reaction is not rotation into crypto. It is de-risking across the board.

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Key Takeaways:
  • Bitcoin volatility has spiked as traders hedge against a potential Strait of Hormuz closure that could disrupt one-fifth of global oil flows.
  • Surging Oil Price levels above $90/barrel would likely stick inflation higher, potentially taking a Q2 Fed rate cut off the table.
  • While Capital Flight into USDT offers localized support, global risk-off flows are dominating market structure and capping upside momentum.

Bitcoin Crypto Volatility Spikes as Iran War Jitters Trigger $128M Liquidations

The first crypto reaction to the Iran war was chaos, not clarity. CoinGlass data shows more than $128 million in liquidations in just 4 hours after reports of the IRGC’s “Operation True Promise 4.” Nearly 80% were longs. Leverage traders were leaning the wrong way and got wiped fast.

Source: Coinglass

Bitcoin initially dropped toward $63,000 on the headlines, then bounced as more details came out. But the rebound feels mechanical, not confident. Open Interest has cooled sharply, which tells you desks are cutting risk, not aggressively buying dips.

This is classic panic behavior. Sell first. Reassess later.

Equities are showing the same pattern. The S&P 500 has seen outflows, and Bitcoin’s correlation with tech remains tight during stress events. Whatever the digital gold narrative says, in moments like this BTC trades like a high-beta risk asset, not a safe haven.

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Oil Price Surge Threatens to Derail Fed Pivot Plans

The real risk to crypto might not be the headlines; it could be oil. If the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, up to 21 million barrels per day could be affected. That is around 20% of the global supply. Even partial disruptions historically trigger instant price spikes.

If crude holds above $100, inflation comes back fast. That traps the Federal Reserve. Rate cuts get delayed. Liquidity stays tight. And crypto suffers in a higher-for-longer environment.

Source: BTCUSD / TradingView

Some analysts are floating extreme downside scenarios again. While most institutional desks still see $58,000 to $60,000 as Bitcoin’s key support zone, that floor depends heavily on the Fed not turning more hawkish.

There is a counter-force: capital flight. Stablecoin demand in parts of the Middle East has jumped as local currencies wobble. Bitcoin and USDT become escape valves. But retail flows from crisis regions rarely offset large institutional outflows driven by macro tightening.

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Altcoins are already showing the strain. Without fresh liquidity, Ethereum and the broader sector struggle to sustain rallies. If yields on the U.S. 10-year push back toward 5% on energy-driven inflation, risk assets likely stay capped.

Discover: The best new crypto in the world

The post Crypto, Iran War, and Oil Price: Geopolitical Shock Could Delay the Crypto Bull Run appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Tether taps Deloitte for first USAT reserve report

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Tether invests in LayerZero Labs as it doubles down on cross-chain tech, agentic finance

Leading stablecoin issuer Tether has secured a sign-off from Deloitte for the first reserve report tied to its new U.S.-regulated stablecoin, after years struggling in its relationships with major accounting firms.

Deloitte reviewed a report prepared by Anchorage Digital Bank, which issued the company’s new USAT token. In a letter released Monday, the accounting firm said Anchorage reported $17.6 million in reserve assets backing 17.5 million USAT tokens in circulation. The token’s market cap has, since the report, risen to nearly $20 million as its growth accelerates.

The total market capitalization of the stablecoin sector has, in fact, been growing rapidly. It’s now past $315 billion, according to CoinMarketCap data, with Tether’s USDT making up $183 billion of that. Circle’s USDC comes in second place, at $76 billion.

The new USAT token follows the passage of the Genius Act last summer. The law limits the types of assets that can back stablecoins and requires larger issuers to move under federal oversight. USAT is structured to comply with those rules.

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Third-party attestations such as this differ from full audits, however. They offer a snapshot of reserves at a specific point in time rather than a deep review of company finances.

Tether has been leveraging the revenue it generates from the assets backing its stablecoins to invest in a plethora of industries. These include a majority stake in Latin American agricultural firm Adecoagro (AGRO), a privacy-focused health app, a stake in video-sharing platform Rumble (RUM). More recently, it invested $200 million in digital marketplace Whop.

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DOJ seeks forfeiture of $327K in USDT linked to romance scam

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DOJ seeks forfeiture of $327K in USDT linked to romance scam

The United States Attorney’s Office for the District of Massachusetts filed a civil forfeiture action Monday seeking to recover 327,829.72 USDT, allegedly involved in a money laundering scheme connected to an online romance scam.

Summary

  • DOJ is seeking to recover approximately $327,829 in USDT linked to a romance fraud and money-laundering scheme.
  • Investigators say the stolen funds were routed through intermediary wallets and converted to stablecoin to conceal origin.
  • The action underscores continued federal efforts to trace and reclaim crypto assets to return them to defrauded Americans.

Justice Department targets crypto laundering in online romance scam

The complaint, filed in federal court, names the cryptocurrency as defendant property and seeks its forfeiture under federal law as proceeds of fraud and laundering.

According to the complaint, the stolen funds originated from a Massachusetts resident who was targeted in late 2024 on a dating app. The fraudster, identified only by an alias, convinced the victim to send funds for purported cryptocurrency investments that never existed.

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Rather than investing the money, the scammers diverted it through a series of cryptocurrency wallets and ultimately converted it to USDT, a common tactic to obfuscate the origin and movement of illicit proceeds.

Several of the wallets in question were seized by law enforcement in August 2025 after blockchain analysis traced connections to the scam.

Under U.S. civil forfeiture law, property traceable to illegal activity may be seized by the government and ultimately returned to victims if the court finds it to be proceeds of crime. The Justice Department’s action allows third parties with a legitimate interest in the property to file claims before any forfeiture is finalized.

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Prosecutors said the forfeiture complaint is part of broader efforts to target online frauds, including romance scams, investment schemes, and cyber-enabled financial crime that increasingly leverage cryptocurrency to move and hide funds.

The case highlights both the growing sophistication of crypto-related fraud and law enforcement’s expanding use of blockchain analysis to trace and reclaim stolen digital assets for fraud victims.

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Bank of Japan eyes tokenized central bank money in blockchain push

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Bank of Japan eyes tokenized central bank money in blockchain push

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo said the rapid integration of blockchain and artificial intelligence is reshaping the financial system, positioning central banks to play a pivotal role in anchoring trust as crypto-linked infrastructure matures.

Summary

  • The BoJ is exploring issuing or connecting central bank money to blockchain networks, including through Project Agorá and domestic sandbox testing.
  • Japan’s retail CBDC program remains active, with technical experiments aimed at preparing digital cash as a future “anchor of trust.”
  • Ueda warned that fragmented blockchain systems could create systemic risk unless central bank money bridges networks and ensures settlement finality.

Bank of Japan’s Ueda backs blockchain settlements, advances CBDC experiments

Speaking at FIN/SUM 2026 in Tokyo, Ueda described blockchain as moving firmly into its “implementation phase,” with decentralized finance (DeFi), smart contracts and tokenized assets increasingly influencing settlement, payments and cross-border finance.

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He emphasized that blockchain’s programmability, particularly atomic transactions that bundle multiple actions into a single execution, could streamline complex processes such as delivery-versus-payment (DvP) and cross-border transfers.

For crypto markets, the speech revealed two key themes: interoperability and settlement in central bank money.

Ueda warned that a fragmented ecosystem of multiple blockchains and traditional payment rails could create conversion bottlenecks and systemic risks if interoperability is not ensured. He suggested central bank money, potentially in tokenized form, could function as a bridge across networks, preserving the “singleness of money” while enabling innovation.

The BOJ is advancing several initiatives with direct implications for digital assets. Its retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilot continues technical testing, while Project Agorá — a joint effort with other central banks and major financial institutions — is exploring tokenized central bank deposits on blockchain networks for cross-border payments.

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A separate BOJ sandbox is testing how current account deposits at the central bank could be used to settle transactions conducted on distributed ledgers.

Ueda also highlighted AI’s growing role in analyzing blockchain transaction data for risk management and AML/CFT compliance, signaling closer scrutiny of crypto-linked activity even as innovation expands.

The message to markets was clear: blockchain-based finance is no longer experimental. But its long-term stability, Ueda said, will hinge on central banks embedding trust, liquidity and settlement finality into the next generation of digital infrastructure.

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Will Solana price crash now that it has charted a bearish flag pattern?

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Solana weekly on-chain revenue.

Solana price tanked over 7% on Monday as fears of the impact of the ongoing U.S.-Iran war continued to drive investors away from risk assets. Current technical signals suggest the token could be set for a downturn.

Summary

  • Solana price has remained in a downtrend as network revenue declined amidst a market-wide downturn.
  • A bearish flag pattern has positioned the token for more downside.

According to data from crypto.news, Solana (SOL) price fell 7% from $88.05 on Sunday to an intraday low of $81.86 on Monday, March 2. Subsequently, it attempted a breach of the $90 resistance supported by a broader market recovery, but the rally lost steam just below that mark.

On the monthly timeframe, Solana has fallen over 30%, and is down over 44% from this year’s highs.

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Solana price has remained in a downtrend as network revenues have fallen. Notably, the weekly revenue generated by the Solaba network has dropped over 30% from what was recorded during mid January, data from DeFiLlama show.

Solana weekly on-chain revenue.
Solana weekly on-chain revenue – March 3 | Source: Defilama.

The total value locked in the network has also fallen from over $9 billion recorded on Jan. 17 to $6.64 billion at the time of writing.

With both network revenue and TVL going down, investors are concerned that Solana’s explosive growth phase is over, and the memecoin fever that fueled the network is finally breaking.

Demand for the token across the derivatives market has also contributed to the downturn. Data from CoinGlass show that SOL futures open interest has scaled back by nearly 45% to $4.93 billion from its January high of $8.88 billion as traders unwind positions awaiting signs of more calmness in the global geopolitical landscape.

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Solana price is also affected by the market-wide downturn in response to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which has pushed investors away from risk assets to more traditional alternatives, as they expect more volatility over this week.

The most recent trigger came after the retaliatory attack from Iran on U.S. ships over the weekend, stationed around the Strait of Hormuz, sparking a jump in oil prices. Investors are concerned this could lead to higher inflation in the U.S., which could likely force the Fed to hike interest rates or hold them steady at restrictive levels for longer.

Risk-assets like Solana tend to benefit from interest rate cut expectations and struggle when the Fed sets a hawkish tone.

On the daily chart, Solana price has formed a bearish flag pattern since the token entered a downtrend from mid January this year, before moving into consolidation over the past few weeks. Bearish flags have typically been precursors to further downward breakouts.

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Will Solana price crash now that it has charted a bearish flag pattern? - 1
Solana price has formed a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart — March 3 | Source: crypto.news

Other technical indicators also favour the bears. The Supertrend has flashed red while the Aroon lines have pointed downwards, with the Aroon Down at 50%, indicating that sellers still maintain firm control of the market.

Hence, Solana price risks dropping to the Feb. 6 low of $70 if the current bearish momentum prevails, especially considering the broader downturn. 

On the contrary, a rebound above $90, a resistance level that the token has struggled to break multiple times over the past few weeks, could offer the necessary optimism for a rally towards the $100 psychological resistance level.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Bitcoin Re-tests $70K as Loss Flows Drop to 2-Week Low

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Iran, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $70,000 on Monday amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. CryptoQuant data shows short-term holder losses transferred to exchanges fell to a two-week low, contrasting with the heavier selling seen in early February.

Bitcoin short-term sellers step back

The short-term holder (STH) profit/loss (P&L) to exchanges metric tracks how much Bitcoin recent buyers send to exchanges at a profit or loss. These participants tend to amplify volatility during stress events.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Iran, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin short-term holder P&L to exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

On March 1, the realized losses fell to 3,700 BTC even as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran escalated in the Middle East. Bitcoin dipped to $63,000 during that window, but exchange inflows from this cohort did not expand in response.

For comparison, on Feb. 5–6, the STHs sent 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a realized loss within 24 hours. That marked a peak capitulation window. Since then, the loss-driven inflows have steadily compressed.

Crypto analyst MorenoDV noted that the most event-sensitive holders have not accelerated distribution and exhibited “zero panic.” The drop in loss transfers signals that the sell pressure from recent buyers has cooled.

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A strong rally may depend on whether realized losses stay contained or reaccelerate toward prior capitulation levels during this period of geopolitical uncertainty.

Related: Michael Saylor’s Strategy buys $204M of Bitcoin in 101st purchase

BTC futures deleveraging meets external liquidity

BTC derivatives data indicate a significant risk reduction. Crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted that Binance open interest declined to 97,680 BTC from 130,800 BTC since the start of the year, a 25% contraction. 

The estimated leverage ratio, which compares open interest to exchange BTC reserves, fell to a 0.146 weekly average. Levels below 0.15 have historically aligned with aggressive deleveraging phases during this cycle.

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On the technical side, Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim its Monthly RVWAP (rolling volume-weighted average price), currently near the high-$68,000 region. The Monthly RVWAP is a volume-weighted average price anchored to the start of the month. BTC trading above it places the average monthly participant back in profit and often shifts the short-term positioning bias of traders.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Iran, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The four-hour chart shows the price pushing through $70,000 and approaching the first external liquidity pocket from $70,000 to $71,500. Converting that range into support may trigger a price expansion to the $80,000 region, where prior supply capped upside in January. Crypto trader LP said,

“On the HTF, low-leverage liquidation clusters are stacking near and just above the range highs, sitting between 70–73K. These higher timeframe liquidity pools often act as magnets when they build in size.”

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Iran, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin external liquidity levels. Source: X

The BTC spot flow data adds further context. Binance spot printed roughly $7.79 million in positive delta during the breakout leg, Coinbase added about $1.16 million, and OKX contributed nearly $3.7 million.

The positive delta across venues signals aggressive spot bidding rather than isolated derivatives-driven activity. With leverage use reduced and loss-driven selling falling, the market’s attention shifts to how the price may react around the $71,500 liquidity band.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Iran, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin spot data flows from exchanges. Source: exitpump/X

Related: Will Bitcoin crash if oil prices hit $100 per barrel?