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High Risk Zone? Analysts Split as Bitcoin (BTC) Ignores Geopolitical Chaos

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Bitcoin's Recovery Isn't Here Yet


Analysts argue that geopolitical shocks have failed to invalidate the existing bullish short-term and bearish mid-term outlooks.

Bitcoin’s reaction to escalating geopolitical tensions over the weekend was limited, even as traditional markets reacted more sharply. BTC slipped to around $65,500 on Monday after trading in a volatile range between roughly $63,000 and $68,000, as markets responded to rising US-Iran tensions and reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a joint US-Israeli airstrike.

Despite the intense, volatile backdrop, market commentators say that the conflict has not changed Bitcoin’s trajectory.

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High Risk Zone

In a post on X, Mr. Wall Street stated that “nothing changed with the new war.” He said that he does not believe the cycle bottom is in at $60,000. According to him, the cycle bottom will form later this year, around $45,000, but only after Bitcoin first rallies to the $80,000-$85,000 range.

The analyst’s outlook is bullish in the short term, bearish in the mid-term. This indicates that while geopolitical shocks may create volatility, he does not believe they invalidate the expectation of a near-term pump followed by a deeper corrective phase. Another prominent crypto market commentator, Doctor Profit, also maintained that the war does not alter his broader bearish positioning.

He wrote that Bitcoin “remains in an absolute high risk zone” and that the market has not bottomed yet.

“The war changes nothing in my bearish outlook for Crypto and Stocks.”

He also added that he remains fully bearish and that his “big short” has remained open since September. Both analysts, despite differing on short-term direction, emphasized that the geopolitical escalation has not fundamentally changed their pre-existing market theses.

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US-Iran Conflict Already Priced In?

Trader CrypNuevo said the market had already been pricing in the US-Iran conflict throughout the previous week. He went on to explain that markets cannot fall much further because the event was largely anticipated, but pointed to uncertainty around the length of the war and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. According to them, stock futures, which Bitcoin tends to follow, would probably open negatively, and could potentially recover as soon as de-escalation talks emerge.

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They said a prolonged conflict is unlikely, citing concerns that extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz would push oil prices higher and spike US CPI inflation, something they do not expect to occur. The strategy is to wait for Monday’s stock market reaction. As such, if there is a sharp sell-off, they would long Bitcoin around $61,000-$60,000 ahead of de-escalation news. On the other hand, if there is only a slight decline, sideways movement, or a pump, they would delay entering a long position until later in the week.

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Crypto World

Bank of Japan eyes tokenized central bank money in blockchain push

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Bank of Japan eyes tokenized central bank money in blockchain push

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo said the rapid integration of blockchain and artificial intelligence is reshaping the financial system, positioning central banks to play a pivotal role in anchoring trust as crypto-linked infrastructure matures.

Summary

  • The BoJ is exploring issuing or connecting central bank money to blockchain networks, including through Project Agorá and domestic sandbox testing.
  • Japan’s retail CBDC program remains active, with technical experiments aimed at preparing digital cash as a future “anchor of trust.”
  • Ueda warned that fragmented blockchain systems could create systemic risk unless central bank money bridges networks and ensures settlement finality.

Bank of Japan’s Ueda backs blockchain settlements, advances CBDC experiments

Speaking at FIN/SUM 2026 in Tokyo, Ueda described blockchain as moving firmly into its “implementation phase,” with decentralized finance (DeFi), smart contracts and tokenized assets increasingly influencing settlement, payments and cross-border finance.

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He emphasized that blockchain’s programmability, particularly atomic transactions that bundle multiple actions into a single execution, could streamline complex processes such as delivery-versus-payment (DvP) and cross-border transfers.

For crypto markets, the speech revealed two key themes: interoperability and settlement in central bank money.

Ueda warned that a fragmented ecosystem of multiple blockchains and traditional payment rails could create conversion bottlenecks and systemic risks if interoperability is not ensured. He suggested central bank money, potentially in tokenized form, could function as a bridge across networks, preserving the “singleness of money” while enabling innovation.

The BOJ is advancing several initiatives with direct implications for digital assets. Its retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilot continues technical testing, while Project Agorá — a joint effort with other central banks and major financial institutions — is exploring tokenized central bank deposits on blockchain networks for cross-border payments.

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A separate BOJ sandbox is testing how current account deposits at the central bank could be used to settle transactions conducted on distributed ledgers.

Ueda also highlighted AI’s growing role in analyzing blockchain transaction data for risk management and AML/CFT compliance, signaling closer scrutiny of crypto-linked activity even as innovation expands.

The message to markets was clear: blockchain-based finance is no longer experimental. But its long-term stability, Ueda said, will hinge on central banks embedding trust, liquidity and settlement finality into the next generation of digital infrastructure.

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Will Solana price crash now that it has charted a bearish flag pattern?

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Solana weekly on-chain revenue.

Solana price tanked over 7% on Monday as fears of the impact of the ongoing U.S.-Iran war continued to drive investors away from risk assets. Current technical signals suggest the token could be set for a downturn.

Summary

  • Solana price has remained in a downtrend as network revenue declined amidst a market-wide downturn.
  • A bearish flag pattern has positioned the token for more downside.

According to data from crypto.news, Solana (SOL) price fell 7% from $88.05 on Sunday to an intraday low of $81.86 on Monday, March 2. Subsequently, it attempted a breach of the $90 resistance supported by a broader market recovery, but the rally lost steam just below that mark.

On the monthly timeframe, Solana has fallen over 30%, and is down over 44% from this year’s highs.

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Solana price has remained in a downtrend as network revenues have fallen. Notably, the weekly revenue generated by the Solaba network has dropped over 30% from what was recorded during mid January, data from DeFiLlama show.

Solana weekly on-chain revenue.
Solana weekly on-chain revenue – March 3 | Source: Defilama.

The total value locked in the network has also fallen from over $9 billion recorded on Jan. 17 to $6.64 billion at the time of writing.

With both network revenue and TVL going down, investors are concerned that Solana’s explosive growth phase is over, and the memecoin fever that fueled the network is finally breaking.

Demand for the token across the derivatives market has also contributed to the downturn. Data from CoinGlass show that SOL futures open interest has scaled back by nearly 45% to $4.93 billion from its January high of $8.88 billion as traders unwind positions awaiting signs of more calmness in the global geopolitical landscape.

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Solana price is also affected by the market-wide downturn in response to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which has pushed investors away from risk assets to more traditional alternatives, as they expect more volatility over this week.

The most recent trigger came after the retaliatory attack from Iran on U.S. ships over the weekend, stationed around the Strait of Hormuz, sparking a jump in oil prices. Investors are concerned this could lead to higher inflation in the U.S., which could likely force the Fed to hike interest rates or hold them steady at restrictive levels for longer.

Risk-assets like Solana tend to benefit from interest rate cut expectations and struggle when the Fed sets a hawkish tone.

On the daily chart, Solana price has formed a bearish flag pattern since the token entered a downtrend from mid January this year, before moving into consolidation over the past few weeks. Bearish flags have typically been precursors to further downward breakouts.

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Will Solana price crash now that it has charted a bearish flag pattern? - 1
Solana price has formed a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart — March 3 | Source: crypto.news

Other technical indicators also favour the bears. The Supertrend has flashed red while the Aroon lines have pointed downwards, with the Aroon Down at 50%, indicating that sellers still maintain firm control of the market.

Hence, Solana price risks dropping to the Feb. 6 low of $70 if the current bearish momentum prevails, especially considering the broader downturn. 

On the contrary, a rebound above $90, a resistance level that the token has struggled to break multiple times over the past few weeks, could offer the necessary optimism for a rally towards the $100 psychological resistance level.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Bitcoin Re-tests $70K as Loss Flows Drop to 2-Week Low

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Iran, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $70,000 on Monday amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. CryptoQuant data shows short-term holder losses transferred to exchanges fell to a two-week low, contrasting with the heavier selling seen in early February.

Bitcoin short-term sellers step back

The short-term holder (STH) profit/loss (P&L) to exchanges metric tracks how much Bitcoin recent buyers send to exchanges at a profit or loss. These participants tend to amplify volatility during stress events.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Iran, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin short-term holder P&L to exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

On March 1, the realized losses fell to 3,700 BTC even as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran escalated in the Middle East. Bitcoin dipped to $63,000 during that window, but exchange inflows from this cohort did not expand in response.

For comparison, on Feb. 5–6, the STHs sent 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a realized loss within 24 hours. That marked a peak capitulation window. Since then, the loss-driven inflows have steadily compressed.

Crypto analyst MorenoDV noted that the most event-sensitive holders have not accelerated distribution and exhibited “zero panic.” The drop in loss transfers signals that the sell pressure from recent buyers has cooled.

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A strong rally may depend on whether realized losses stay contained or reaccelerate toward prior capitulation levels during this period of geopolitical uncertainty.

Related: Michael Saylor’s Strategy buys $204M of Bitcoin in 101st purchase

BTC futures deleveraging meets external liquidity

BTC derivatives data indicate a significant risk reduction. Crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted that Binance open interest declined to 97,680 BTC from 130,800 BTC since the start of the year, a 25% contraction. 

The estimated leverage ratio, which compares open interest to exchange BTC reserves, fell to a 0.146 weekly average. Levels below 0.15 have historically aligned with aggressive deleveraging phases during this cycle.

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On the technical side, Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim its Monthly RVWAP (rolling volume-weighted average price), currently near the high-$68,000 region. The Monthly RVWAP is a volume-weighted average price anchored to the start of the month. BTC trading above it places the average monthly participant back in profit and often shifts the short-term positioning bias of traders.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Iran, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The four-hour chart shows the price pushing through $70,000 and approaching the first external liquidity pocket from $70,000 to $71,500. Converting that range into support may trigger a price expansion to the $80,000 region, where prior supply capped upside in January. Crypto trader LP said,

“On the HTF, low-leverage liquidation clusters are stacking near and just above the range highs, sitting between 70–73K. These higher timeframe liquidity pools often act as magnets when they build in size.”

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Iran, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin external liquidity levels. Source: X

The BTC spot flow data adds further context. Binance spot printed roughly $7.79 million in positive delta during the breakout leg, Coinbase added about $1.16 million, and OKX contributed nearly $3.7 million.

The positive delta across venues signals aggressive spot bidding rather than isolated derivatives-driven activity. With leverage use reduced and loss-driven selling falling, the market’s attention shifts to how the price may react around the $71,500 liquidity band.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Iran, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin spot data flows from exchanges. Source: exitpump/X

Related: Will Bitcoin crash if oil prices hit $100 per barrel?