Credit investors are loading up on riskier debt, betting that Iran and the US can extend their truce, and leaving behind havens they’ve favoured since the war broke out in late February.

In the first half of April, investors bought a net $500 million of bonds in the lowest tier of investment grade, and sold $7.3 billion of the higher tiers, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. That helped BBB bonds perform comparatively better than higher-rated notes, pushing the gap between spreads for BBB and A corporates to the tightest since before the war.

There may be good reason for these slightly riskier bonds to be performing better: BBB rated companies have outperformed analysts’ average forecasts more than A companies have, according to a Bloomberg News analysis.

Buyers are hoping a more lasting peace in West Asia can be forged by negotiators, and that companies in the lower edges of investment grade can keep performing well.

“There is some value in the BBB space and issuers there have been good stewards of the balance sheet and generally improving credit quality,” said Gene Tannuzzo, global head of fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

Investors have also been snatching up junk bonds, although with a preference for the higher-rated end of the spectrum, implying that money managers still see risk ahead even as they grow moderately more hopeful. Overall spreads for junk bonds are at their tightest since the war began, averaging 2.72% as of Thursday’s close.

Technical signals suggest the recent rebound on Dalal Street is gathering traction, but conviction remains key. Analysts broadly see the market attempting to transition from a corrective phase to a more durable uptrend, supported by improving momentum and selective buying interest. However, they caution that the move is still at a critical juncture, with resistance zones likely to test the strength of the recovery.

ROHAN SHAH
TECHNICAL ANALYST, ASIT C MEHTA INVESTMENT

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Nifty staged a strong comeback this month after a prolonged four-month decline, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and lower crude prices. The index has approached a resistance band of 24,300–24,700, which aligns with multiple technical studies. However, sustained strength above this zone is essential for the continuation of the upward momentum, potentially paving the way toward 25,500. Inability to hold above this zone may trigger profit booking, dragging the index lower towards 23,500–23,200. Trading Strategy: Buy Nifty futures above 24,700 for an upside target of 25,500, maintaining a stop-loss below 24,250.

TOP STOCK BETS
Jubilant FoodWorks
Buy at CMP Rs 459 | Stop-loss Rs 420 | Target Rs 525
The stock shows early reversal signs, backed by one-year high volumes and a high-wave candle near a demand zone, indicating selling exhaustion. The Rs 420–440 zone is key support; RSI shows bullish divergence.
Maruti Suzuki India
Buy at CMP Rs 13,453 | Stop-loss Rs 12,500 | Target Rs 15,500

The stock has witnessed a strong rebound after confirming a bullish ABCD harmonic pattern. The formation of a cup-and-handle pattern alongside improving volumes signals accumulation. RSI holding above its breakout level suggests a positive bias.

AJIT MISHRA
SVP – RESEARCH, RELIGARE BROKING

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Nifty is now approaching key moving averages (100 and 200 DEMA) in the 24,600– 24,800 zone. Sustained strength above this band could open room for further upside towards 25,200. In case of profit booking or consolidation, the 23,700–24,000 zone is likely to provide strong support.

Trading Strategies: For the short term, traders may consider a “buy on dip” approach in the 24,150–24,250 range, with a stop-loss at 23,900 and potential targets of 24,800 and 25,200. Among sectoral themes, the Nifty Energy Index has witnessed a fresh breakout after spending more than one-anda-half years in a consolidation phase. Participants can consider playing this theme through an ETF, i.e., Mirae Asset Nifty Energy ETF. It is currently trading at Rs 39.11, and one can accumulate it in the Rs 37–40 zone with a stoploss at Rs 34 for a positional target of Rs 52.

TOP STOCK BETS
Federal Bank Buy. CMP Rs 293 | Stop-loss Rs 278 | Target Rs 325

Federal Bank is in a steady uptrend with higher highs and lows post-base formation. A strong breakout near the 200-DMA signals a sentiment shift; price holds above key averages, with RSI supporting continuation.

JSW Energy
Buy. CMP Rs 538 | Stop-loss Rs 504 | Target Rs 598

JSW Energy is in a stage-2 uptrend, consolidating after a strong rally. The range-bound move near the 200-DMA suggests a healthy pause, with price now attempting an upward breakout supported by improving momentum.

RAJESH PALVIYA
HEAD OF TECHNICAL AND DERIVATIVES, AXIS SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Nifty is fast approaching 24,415—the upper boundary of the bearish gap etched on March 9. A conviction close above 24,500, however, could open the floodgates. The next logical pit stops are 24,762— the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Feb March decline—and the psychologically significant 25,000 mark. A slip below the 24,000–23,900 support band would be a warning shot, potentially dragging the index back to retest its weekly low of 23,555. Traders on the long side would do well to respect this floor. The overall outlook remains positive, as the weekly RSI continues to stay above its reference line. This indicates that positive momentum is still intact and not yet exhausted.

Trading Strategies: The recommended strategy for Nifty options for the April 28, 2026, expiry is a call spread, ideal for a moderately bullish market outlook. The trader buys one lot of the 24,400-strike Call option at a premium of Rs 260–240 and simultaneously sells one lot of the 24,700-strike Call option at a premium of Rs 130–150. This strategy limits both risk and reward, creating a defined range for outcomes. The break-even point is at 24,530, with a maximum potential loss of Rs 8,450 and a maximum profit of Rs 11,050.

TOP STOCK BETS
Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders
Buy at Rs 2,618, CMP Rs 2,620| Stop-loss Rs 2,550 | Target Rs 2,800-2,850

A breakout above Rs 2,430 signals a shift to a primary uptrend, with RSI strength confirming bullish momentum. Resistance lies at Rs 2,800–2,850; sustained strength could extend gains to Rs 3,000–3,050.

Polycab India
Buy at Rs 8,184, CMP Rs 8,188.50 | Stop-loss Rs 7,900 | Target Rs 8,600-8,900

An uptrend supported by a rising trendline and a doublebottom near Rs 6,650 underpins strength. Resistance at Rs 8,700; a breakout could target Rs 9,000+. Maintain Rs 7,600 as a stop-loss; below this, risks a breakdown.

This article was written by

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