As investors weigh where the flagship cryptocurrency stands in 2026, VanEck’s chief executive says the market is likely near a bottom of its long-running cyclical pattern. The four-year cycle has framed price moves for years, with the reward halving compressing supply and influencing sentiment. While on-chain metrics and fundamentals have shown pockets of improvement, many observers remain cautious about the pace and durability of any rebound. In a recent interview, Jan van Eck argued that the asset may have found a base as it transitions through the cycle, a claim that dovetails with a wider debate about whether the old playbook still holds in a more mature market.

Key takeaways

• The CEO of VanEck sees Bitcoin’s price near a bottom as the four-year cycle winds down, arguing that the cycle has historically driven much of the recent price action.
• VanEck links the near-term bottom to the halving-driven supply dynamic, suggesting that 2026 represents the fourth year in a typical four-year pattern where gains fade and a bottom forms.
• BTC was around $68,400 at the time of writing, up roughly 2.6% in the prior 24 hours and about 7.6% over the past week, according to CoinGecko.
• Analysts remain split on the relevance of the four-year cycle, with macro catalysts such as ETF demand, USD movements, and regulatory progress cited as potential deviations from the historical script.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have coincided with a recent crypto rally, with some observers noting that crypto rails could facilitate cross-border flows when traditional banking channels face friction.
• VanEck suggested that the recovery may be tied to a broader shift toward crypto-centric mechanisms for moving value in uncertain political environments, pointing to regions like the UAE as more favorable for crypto activity.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Bullish

Price impact: Positive. The asset’s price has moved higher in the wake of remarks suggesting a bottoming process amid cycle dynamics.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The argument centers on a potential transition from a cycle-driven bear to a gradual uptick, underscored by macro and regulatory developments that could sustain a cautious uptick.

Market context: The discussion sits at a time when crypto markets are weighing the durability of a four-year pattern against rising institutional adoption, ETF activity, and regulatory clarity, all of which can alter traditional cycle expectations.

Why it matters

The debate over whether the four-year Bitcoin cycle remains a reliable predictor has shaped investor expectations for years. Proponents of the cycle point to halving events—the mechanism by which miners’ block rewards are cut by half every four years—as a fundamental driver of price dynamics, creating multi-year bull phases followed by sharper downswings. Critics argue that as institutions enter the market and as macro conditions evolve, the cycle’s predictive power may wane. The VanEck view adds a new layer to the discussion by tethering the near-term bottom to this long-standing pattern while acknowledging a broader regime change in market maturity.

Beyond supply-side mechanics, macro factors loom large. ETFs and other institutional demand can alter price trajectories by providing channels for large-scale inflows, while a weakening U.S. dollar or a more favorable regulatory backdrop can bolster risk appetite. In the interview, VanEck framed the cycle as a lens through which to view price action but did not discount the possibility that external forces could support a more resilient recovery than in prior bear-market episodes.

The topic of the four-year cycle has persisted through recent months as analysts weigh macro risks against momentum-driven moves. While some observers argue that external drivers—such as ETF activation, macro liquidity, and policy signals—can override the cycle, others maintain that the underlying halving mechanism remains a meaningful structural factor in the market’s long-run equilibrium. The conversation is far from settled, but the proximity to a potential bottom is a focal point for traders watching for confirmation signals that the next leg higher is underway.

The interview also touched on the broader usefulness of crypto rails during periods of geopolitical strain. VanEck suggested that in scenarios where traditional financial channels face friction, digital assets and crypto payment rails could serve as an alternative for moving value, particularly in regions perceived as crypto-friendly. He pointed to the Middle East—specifically the UAE and Dubai—as an environment where crypto activity might facilitate cross-border settlement and capitalize on more permissive regulatory attitudes compared with some other corridors. The framing underscores a broader theme: as the crypto market matures, it increasingly intersects with real-world financial flows and geopolitical risk, shaping both price and adoption trajectories.

The price development around the remark mirrors a cautious but constructive tone in markets. The latest run has been modest by historical standards, but it has punctured bear-market rhetoric and raised the possibility that 2026 could mark the start of a renewed cycle, even if the path remains uncertain. The discussion also reflects a broader industry interest in how much of the narrative is driven by traditional macro factors versus on-chain fundamentals—an ongoing debate that will likely persist as more capital enters the space and as regulatory landscapes evolve.

The original article and linked materials also explore contrasting viewpoints on the cycle’s sustainability. Critics highlight macro demand from ETFs, a weaker USD, and favorable regulatory developments as signs that the market’s drivers are expanding beyond the classic halving-focused paradigm. Supporters, meanwhile, continue to emphasize the structural tightness of supply and the influence of miner economics on price behavior. In this tension lies the market’s current temperament: uncertain but attentive to any data point that could signal a durable bottom or the onset of a new cycle.

What to watch next

• Follow BTC price action around key milestones in 2026, including potential reaction to the next halving cycle’s window as the market digests supply dynamics.
• Monitor ETF-related inflows and regulatory developments in major markets that could alter institutional participation and liquidity.
• Track macro indicators such as USD strength, interest-rate expectations, and risk sentiment, which historically influence the pace of cross-asset capital allocation.
• Observe on-chain metrics for signs of accumulation or distribution, which could corroborate or challenge near-term bottoming narratives.

Sources & verification

• CNBC interview with VanEck on March 2, 2026 discussing Bitcoin’s bottoming potential and the four-year cycle.
• BTC price data and performance metrics from CoinGecko (as cited in the article).
• Cointelegraph reporting on bitcoin price movements and cycle debates.
• Iran-related crypto outflows and related commentary, as covered by Cointelegraph.
• In-depth magazine piece examining market narratives around liquidity, manipulation, and market structure.

Bottoming thesis as the cycle winds down

In a conversation that bridged investment strategy and market timing, Jan van Eck framed Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) as entering a phase where the four-year cycle’s cooling effect on price could harmonize with an improving macro backdrop. The interview, conducted with CNBC, emphasized that the once-rapid gains associated with earlier cycles have given way to a more measured pace of appreciation, aligned with the notion that supply constraints and miner economics continue to shape price floors. The veteran investor’s view centers on a bottoming process that could precede a gradual reacceleration, albeit with the caveat that external forces may still alter the trajectory.

“There’s been an investing cycle, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) goes up three years in a row, goes down pretty massively in that fourth year. 2026 is that fourth year. So that’s why we are in a Bitcoin bear market. So I think we can overcomplicate it. Now I think we are making a bottom.”

VanEck’s perspective sits amid a broader debate over the cycle’s durability. Some analysts argue that external catalysts—macro demand from ETFs, a softer dollar, and regulatory breakthroughs—can override the historical rhythm. Others insist that the structural impulse provided by the halving remains a core fixture of price dynamics, even as the market expands to include more institutional players and sophisticated investors. The interview and surrounding discourse reflect a crypto ecosystem grappling with how much of its future is tethered to the cycle versus evolving fundamentals.

As markets digest the possibility of a bottom, attention also turns to capital flows in other regions where crypto rails could provide practical advantages in uncertain times. The discussion about using digital assets to move value away from traditional banking systems, especially in geopolitically sensitive contexts, underscores the potential for crypto to function as an alternative channel for settlement and liquidity. While such narratives can carry speculative risk, they also highlight the growing integration of digital assets into broader financial infrastructure and risk-management considerations.

What to watch next

• Public disclosures and filings related to ETF activity and exposure limits that could intensify or dampen institutional flows.
• Regulatory developments that signal a more mature market environment or prompt caution among new entrants.
• On-chain indicators (e.g., balance sheets of major exchanges, miner revenue trends) that could confirm or contradict a bottoming scenario.

As macro conditions regain influence over digital assets, investors are increasingly asking whether a rebound in economic activity, particularly a Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reading above 50, could ignite the next altcoin season.

What PMI means for Altcoin Season

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a forward-looking economic indicator that measures manufacturing and services activity. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction.

Crypto markets, especially altcoins, are highly sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite. When PMI rises above 50 after a contraction phase, it typically signals improving growth expectations, stronger corporate activity, and loosening financial conditions.

Historically, periods of macro expansion have coincided with greater investor willingness to rotate into higher-beta assets, including mid- and small-cap cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin often reacts first to improving macro conditions, benefiting from institutional flows. Altcoin season tends to follow when investors move further out the risk curve in search of higher returns. In prior cycles, altcoin rallies have emerged during early-to-mid expansion phases when liquidity conditions improved but speculative excess had not yet peaked.

Current conditions: Pressure before rotation?

However, the present backdrop remains fragile.

According to a CryptoQuant analyst, 38% of altcoins are trading near their all-time lows, a worse reading than both April 2025 (35%) and even the immediate aftermath of the FTX collapse (37.8%). This marks the deepest regression for altcoins in the current cycle, underscoring persistent risk aversion.

Moreover, the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart reinforces this narrative. Dominance remains elevated near 58–59%, after peaking around 60% in February.

While BTC.D has pulled back slightly from local highs, it has not broken into a decisive downtrend, a necessary condition for sustained altcoin outperformance.

For a PMI-driven altcoin season to materialize, three things likely need to occur simultaneously: PMI moving sustainably above 50, Bitcoin consolidating rather than trending sharply higher, and BTC dominance breaking below key support to confirm capital rotation.

Until then, macro stabilization may first benefit Bitcoin before liquidity meaningfully spreads into the broader altcoin market.

In short, a PMI recovery could be the spark, but dominance trends suggest altcoin season has not yet begun.

Riot Platforms (NASDAQ: RIOT) closed 2025 with a record revenue footprint, anchored by a surge in Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) mining and a strategic pivot toward AI-friendly data infrastructure. The miner reported $647.4 million in revenue for the year, up 72% from $376.7 million in 2024, with Bitcoin mining revenue accounting for the bulk of that rise — $576.3 million — as the company’s hashrate climbed and Bitcoin prices firmed. The year saw Riot mine 5,686 BTC, up from 4,828 BTC in 2024. The average cost to mine one Bitcoin, excluding depreciation, rose to $49,645 from $32,216 in 2024, reflecting a 47% increase in the global network hashrate and higher mining difficulty, though power credits grew 68% over the year, helping offset some costs. Engineering revenue also climbed to $64.7 million from $38.5 million in 2024.

Key takeaways

• Full-year revenue reached $647.4 million, a 72% year-over-year rise, driven largely by Bitcoin mining.
• Bitcoin mining revenue totaled $576.3 million in 2025, with Riot producing 5,686 BTC for the year.
• The average cost to mine one BTC rose to $49,645 due to a 47% jump in the global network hashrate and higher mining difficulty; power credits rose 68% to help compensate.
• Riot still posted a net loss of $663 million for 2025 due to accounting adjustments and the paper value of its Bitcoin holdings, though adjusted EBITDA reached $13 million.
• At year-end, Riot held 18,005 BTC on its balance sheet (3,977 BTC pledged as collateral), valued at about $1.6 billion at the period’s price; the company maintained $309.8 million in cash, including $76.3 million restricted.
• The year featured notable strategic moves, including an AMD data-center agreement and the sale of Bitcoin to fund a 200-acre land purchase in Rockdale, Texas, amid activist pressure to accelerate a pivot toward AI/HPC infrastructure.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $RIOT, $AMD

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The 2025 crypto cycle remained volatile, with miners navigating lower price environments and rising mining difficulty as global hashrates expanded. Riot’s results reflect both the resilience of Bitcoin mining revenue and the pressures of noncash accounting on reported profits, while the sector-wide shift toward data-center and AI infrastructure gained pace among peers.

Why it matters

Riot’s 2025 numbers underscore the enduring profitability potential of Bitcoin mining when operational scale and efficiency align with favorable Bitcoin price trends. The company’s ability to produce 5,686 BTC in a year demonstrates the continued relevance of large-scale, purpose-built mining operations even as macro conditions vary. Yet the sizable net loss for 2025 highlights the distinction between cash generation and reported earnings, driven by noncash accounting adjustments and the mark-to-market treatment of Bitcoin holdings. For investors, the key takeaway is whether Riot’s business model can convert its rising revenue into sustainable cash flow as it diversifies beyond mining into AI-focused data-center infrastructure.

Riot’s strategic pivot toward AI and HPC infrastructure is a central theme in the sector. The company’s leadership has signaled a broader trend among leading miners to repurpose existing power capacity for AI workloads, aligning with a market where demand for GPU-accelerated data centers and related services remains robust. This pivot aligns Riot with peers that have begun converting mining capacity into AI computing, a move that could unlock new monetization avenues beyond BTC production. The balance between mining economics and the potential upside from AI/HPC deployments will be critical to assess in the coming quarters, particularly as the company explores capital allocation decisions that could affect liquidity and leverage metrics.

The year’s narrative is also shaped by external pressures from activist investors. Starboard Value’s position suggested the AI/HPC pivot could unlock a valuation up to $21 billion, a view that intensifies scrutiny on how Riot deploys capital and scales its non-mining businesses. The broader mining ecosystem is undergoing a similar transformation, with other miners converting facilities and power capacity into data-center operations. In this environment, Riot’s execution on both mining efficiency and AI-centric expansion will be watched closely by holders and analysts alike.

Beyond Riot’s internal dynamics, the sector faced notable earnings results from peers during 2025. Core Scientific reported Q4 revenue of $79.8 million, down 16% year over year and short of estimates, while TeraWulf posted quarterly mining revenue of $35.8 million, below expectations. Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) faced a steeper quarterly loss of $1.71 billion as revenue declined, underscoring the difficult backdrop for miners even as some players pursue diversification into AI infrastructure. The industry’s earnings narrative in 2025 highlighted both the fragility of pure mining profits and the potential for strategic pivots to sustain growth.

Riot’s year-end results also mirror a broader financial landscape in crypto by illustrating how the balance sheet interacts with price movements. The company finished the year with 18,005 BTC on hand, including nearly 4,000 BTC pledged as collateral, valued at approximately $1.6 billion using year-end Bitcoin prices. With $309.8 million in cash and $76.3 million restricted, Riot’s liquidity position provides a foundation for ongoing investments, including data-center expansions and potential acquisitions linked to its AI/HPC strategy. The role of Bitcoin as a treasury asset remains a focal point for investors evaluating the risk-reward profile of mining-centric businesses in a volatile market.

What to watch next

• Progress of the AMD data-center agreement and any related deployment milestones at Riot’s facilities.
• Updates on the Rockdale, Texas land development and whether additional capital is deployed toward AI/HPC infrastructure.
• Regulatory or market developments that could impact mining economics or Bitcoin’s treasury treatment in Riot’s financials.
• Future quarterly results for any signs of improved profitability from AI/data-center initiatives or changes in BTC holdings strategy.
• Ongoing discourse with activists and any governance actions tied to Riot’s strategic pivot and capital allocation plan.

Sources & verification

• Riot Platforms, Inc. announces full-year 2025 financial results and strategic highlights — official press release.
• Riot Platforms’ 2025 earnings report (PDF): Riot earnings report. Source: Riot.
• Details on the AMD data-center agreement and Rockdale land purchase: Riot Platforms Bitcoin AI HPC Texas land deal — original reporting.
• Activist investor Starboard Value commentary on Riot’s strategic pivot and potential valuation upside: Starboard Value discussion.
• Industry context on AI infrastructure and mining sector shifts: article on AI-focused data centers and high-yield bonds in BTC mining.

Riot Platforms’ 2025 results reflect a record top line and a pivot toward AI infrastructure

Riot Platforms (NASDAQ: RIOT) posted a year that underscored both the durability of large-scale Bitcoin mining and the strategic tension between traditional mining economics and the opportunity set created by AI-centric data centers. The revenue trajectory was unmistakable: a $647.4 million top line, a 72% ascent from the prior year, with BTC-driven mining revenue powering the majority of that growth. The company’s annual Bitcoin production reached 5,686 BTC, a solid step up from 4,828 BTC in 2024, illustrating how scale and efficiency can translate into tangible output even amid a volatile crypto environment. The mining segment’s strength is tempered by cost dynamics that have evolved in tandem with a rapidly expanding network hashrate — up 47% globally — and a corresponding rise in mining difficulty. Excluding depreciation, Riot’s estimated custo to mine a single Bitcoin rose to $49,645, a signal that margins can compress when the network grows quickly, though the resilience of power credits, which rose 68% in the year, helped cushion some of that pressure.

The company’s 2025 earnings narrative was not simple arithmetic. A net loss of $663 million dominated headlines, but much of that figure traces noncash accounting adjustments and changes in the paper value of Riot’s Bitcoin holdings. When noncash items are stripped away, adjusted EBITDA stood at $13 million for the year. Investors were reminded that cash-generating capacity can coexist with paper losses on the balance sheet, a dynamic that has become increasingly common among miners that carry substantial Bitcoin positions on their books. The disclosures around these noncash effects underscore the importance of parsing GAAP results from the underlying cash flow and operating performance when evaluating Riot’s long-term trajectory.

On the balance sheet, Riot ended 2025 with a sizable cache of Bitcoin — 18,005 BTC — worth roughly $1.6 billion using year-end prices, of which 3,977 BTC were pledged as collateral. The company also held $309.8 million in cash, with $76.3 million classified as restricted. These figures provide Riot with a degree of financial flexibility as it navigates capital allocations in a field that remains sensitive to Bitcoin’s price trajectory and mining economics. The year’s liquidity position supports ongoing initiatives tied to the AI/HPC pivot, including potential expansions of data-center capacity or related partnerships.

Strategically, Riot’s year highlighted deliberate steps toward redefining its role beyond pure mining. In January, Riot struck a data-center agreement with AMD (NASDAQ: AMD), signaling a potential shift toward AI accelerator workloads and high-performance computing. In tandem, the company disclosed plans to monetize Bitcoin to fund a 200-acre land purchase in Rockdale, Texas, a move that aligns with a broader push to increase on-site compute capacity while pursuing productive uses for capital. Activist investor Starboard Value pressed for a more accelerated pivot into AI infrastructure, arguing that the transformation could unlock substantial value. This tension between immediate mining returns and longer-term data-center profitability mirrors a wider industry debate about how miners should allocate capital as demand for AI infrastructure continues to grow.

Riot’s narrative sits within a broader ecosystem of miners pursuing similar diversification. Peers such as Hive, Hut 8, TeraWulf, and Iren have repurposed some of their power assets for data-center operations, while CoreWeave has moved toward fully AI infrastructure. The evolving earnings mix reflects an industry-wide recalibration: mining revenues remain a foundational contributor, but AI-focused data centers promise new avenues for revenue and margin expansion if executed with discipline and scale. The 2025 results thus offer a snapshot of a sector in transition — one where the fate of an individual miner hinges on execution across multiple fronts: efficiency, balance-sheet discipline, capital allocation, and the ability to monetize AI compute opportunities as demand for AI workloads climbs.

Looking ahead, Riot’s path will depend on how successfully it translates its AI/HPC ambitions into tangible earnings and how it navigates Bitcoin’s price volatility. The company’s forthcoming disclosures and quarterly updates will be critical for assessing whether the AI pivot can meaningfully augment free cash flow and provide a sustainable alternative to mining-driven revenue. As miners balance the traditional economics of BTC production with the strategic imperative to invest in AI infrastructure, Riot’s 2025 experience could serve as a bellwether for the broader market’s willingness to embrace diversification as a route to enduring profitability.

Riot Platforms posted record annual revenue of $647.4 million for 2025, up 72% from $376.7 million a year earlier.

In a Monday announcement, the company said the increase was driven by a $255.3 million jump in Bitcoin (BTC) mining revenue, which reached $576.3 million in 2025 amid a rise in operational hashrate and higher average Bitcoin prices. During the year, Riot produced 5,686 Bitcoin, up from 4,828 BTC in 2024.

The average cost to mine one Bitcoin, excluding depreciation, climbed to $49,645 from $32,216 in 2024. Riot attributed the higher cost largely to a 47% increase in the global network hashrate, which increased mining difficulty. That impact was partly offset by a 68% increase in power credits received during the year, the company said. Engineering revenue also rose, reaching $64.7 million compared with $38.5 million in 2024.

Despite the record performance, Riot reported a net loss of $663 million because of accounting adjustments and changes in the paper value of its Bitcoin holdings. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) for the year was $13 million.

Related: High-yield bond surge signals rising risk, demand in BTC mining, AI infrastructure

Riot closes 2025 with 18,005 BTC worth $1.6 billion

Riot ended 2025 with 18,005 Bitcoin on its balance sheet, including 3,977 BTC pledged as collateral. Based on a year-end Bitcoin price of $87,498, those holdings were valued at roughly $1.6 billion. The company also held $309.8 million in cash, of which $76.3 million was restricted.

In January, Riot signed a data center agreement with chipmaker AMD and sold Bitcoin to buy 200 acres of land in Rockdale, Texas. The move came after activist investor Starboard Value said the company’s shift toward artificial intelligence and high-performance computing could carry a valuation of up to $21 billion, urging the Bitcoin miner to accelerate the pivot.

Riot’s shift toward AI and data centers comes amid similar moves by other major miners. Companies including Hive, Hut 8, TeraWulf and Iren are converting mining facilities and power capacity into data-center operations, and some players such as CoreWeave have already transitioned fully into AI infrastructure.

Related: Trump family-backed miner American Bitcoin posts $59M quarterly loss

Bitcoin miners struggle amid crypto slump

Several publicly traded Bitcoin miners faced pressure in 2025 as crypto prices weakened. Core Scientific reported fourth-quarter revenue of $79.8 million, down 16% year-on-year and below analyst forecasts, with mining revenue almost halved to $42.2 million.

TeraWulf also missed estimates, reporting quarterly revenue of $35.8 million, down from $50.6 million in the previous quarter and below expectations. MARA Holdings posted even steeper losses. The miner reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $1.71 billion, compared with net income of $528 million a year earlier, as revenue slipped 6% to $202.3 million.

Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author