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Will Solana price crash now that it has charted a bearish flag pattern?

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Solana weekly on-chain revenue.

Solana price tanked over 7% on Monday as fears of the impact of the ongoing U.S.-Iran war continued to drive investors away from risk assets. Current technical signals suggest the token could be set for a downturn.

Summary

  • Solana price has remained in a downtrend as network revenue declined amidst a market-wide downturn.
  • A bearish flag pattern has positioned the token for more downside.

According to data from crypto.news, Solana (SOL) price fell 7% from $88.05 on Sunday to an intraday low of $81.86 on Monday, March 2. Subsequently, it attempted a breach of the $90 resistance supported by a broader market recovery, but the rally lost steam just below that mark.

On the monthly timeframe, Solana has fallen over 30%, and is down over 44% from this year’s highs.

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Solana price has remained in a downtrend as network revenues have fallen. Notably, the weekly revenue generated by the Solaba network has dropped over 30% from what was recorded during mid January, data from DeFiLlama show.

Solana weekly on-chain revenue.
Solana weekly on-chain revenue – March 3 | Source: Defilama.

The total value locked in the network has also fallen from over $9 billion recorded on Jan. 17 to $6.64 billion at the time of writing.

With both network revenue and TVL going down, investors are concerned that Solana’s explosive growth phase is over, and the memecoin fever that fueled the network is finally breaking.

Demand for the token across the derivatives market has also contributed to the downturn. Data from CoinGlass show that SOL futures open interest has scaled back by nearly 45% to $4.93 billion from its January high of $8.88 billion as traders unwind positions awaiting signs of more calmness in the global geopolitical landscape.

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Solana price is also affected by the market-wide downturn in response to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which has pushed investors away from risk assets to more traditional alternatives, as they expect more volatility over this week.

The most recent trigger came after the retaliatory attack from Iran on U.S. ships over the weekend, stationed around the Strait of Hormuz, sparking a jump in oil prices. Investors are concerned this could lead to higher inflation in the U.S., which could likely force the Fed to hike interest rates or hold them steady at restrictive levels for longer.

Risk-assets like Solana tend to benefit from interest rate cut expectations and struggle when the Fed sets a hawkish tone.

On the daily chart, Solana price has formed a bearish flag pattern since the token entered a downtrend from mid January this year, before moving into consolidation over the past few weeks. Bearish flags have typically been precursors to further downward breakouts.

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Will Solana price crash now that it has charted a bearish flag pattern? - 1
Solana price has formed a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart — March 3 | Source: crypto.news

Other technical indicators also favour the bears. The Supertrend has flashed red while the Aroon lines have pointed downwards, with the Aroon Down at 50%, indicating that sellers still maintain firm control of the market.

Hence, Solana price risks dropping to the Feb. 6 low of $70 if the current bearish momentum prevails, especially considering the broader downturn. 

On the contrary, a rebound above $90, a resistance level that the token has struggled to break multiple times over the past few weeks, could offer the necessary optimism for a rally towards the $100 psychological resistance level.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Crypto World

Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

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Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

Total value locked on decentralized lending protocol Aave dropped by nearly $8 billion over the weekend after hackers behind the $293 million Kelp DAO exploit borrowed funds on Aave, leaving roughly $195 million in “bad debt” on the protocol and triggering withdrawals.

Data from DeFiLlama shows that Aave’s TVL fell from about $26.4 billion to $18.6 billion by Sunday, losing the top spot as the largest DeFi protocol. 

Aave v3’s lending pools for USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC) are now at 100% utilization, meaning that more than $5.1 billion worth of stablecoins cannot be withdrawn until new liquidity arrives or borrows are repaid. 

$2,540 is available to be withdrawn from the $2.87 billion USDT pool on Aave v3 at the time of writing. Source: Aave

Aave’s TVL fall shows how rapidly risk from a single security incident can spread throughout the broader, interconnected DeFi lending market, potentially leading to a severe liquidity crisis.

The incident began on Saturday when hackers stole 116,500 Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (rsETH) tokens worth about $293 million from Kelp DAO’s LayerZero-powered bridge and used them as collateral on Aave v3 to borrow wrapped Ether (wETH).

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Crypto analytics platform Lookonchain said the move created about $195 million in “bad debt” on Aave, which contributed to the Aave (AAVE) token tanking nearly 20% from $112 on Saturday at 6:00 pm UTC to $89.5 about 25 hours later. 

Lookonchain noted that some of the largest crypto whales to withdraw funds from Aave were the MEXC crypto exchange and Abraxas Capital at $431 million and $392 million, respectively.

Source: Grvt

Several crypto networks and protocols tied to rsETH or the LayerZero bridge have paused use of the bridge until the problem is resolved, including DeFi platform Curve Finance, stablecoin issuer Ethena and BitGo’s Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC).

Aave has frozen several rsETH, wETH markets

Shortly after the Kelp DAO exploit, Aave said it froze the rsETH markets on both Aave v3 and v4 to prevent any suspicious borrowing and later stated that rsETH on Ethereum mainnet remains fully backed by underlying assets.

WETH reserves also remain frozen on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, Mantle and Linea, Aave said.

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This incident marks the first significant stress test of Aave’s “Umbrella” security model, which was introduced in June 2025 to provide automated protection against protocol bad debt while enabling users to earn rewards.

Related: Aave DAO backs V4 mainnet plan in near-unanimous vote

Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada found that Aave avoided bad debt in its v3 market by using overcollateralization, automated liquidations and other strategies that shifted risk to borrowers.

In comments to Cointelegraph, Aave defended its liquidation-based model, framing it as a core safety mechanism that protects lenders while limiting downside for borrowers.

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It comes as Aave parted ways with its longest-standing DeFi risk service provider, Chaos Labs, on April 6, following disagreements over the direction of Aave v4 and budget constraints.

Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?