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Oil shock and inflation fears drag down bitcoin :Crypto Daybook Americas

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CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin fell more than 3.5% to below $67,000 as escalating tensions in the Middle East drove investors out of risk assets and into the U.S. dollar.

As the conflict escalates, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supply.

Shipping rates for crude and liquefied natural gas tankers surged after vessels were targeted in the region and several operators suspended activity. Brent crude climbed more than 13% in the past five days, while freight costs for large oil tankers reached record levels.

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The shock is hitting financial markets. The dollar index (DXY) is up nearly 1% and U.S. Treasury yields moved higher as investors move away from risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, reflecting expectations that central banks may face renewed inflation pressure from rising fuel costs.

Bitcoin had briefly approached $70,000 earlier in the week but reversed course as the conflict erupted. Cryptocurrency prices have nevertheless remained range-bound despite the escalation.

The initial U.S. strike on Iran over the weekend pushed bitcoin and ether lower, triggering about $300 million in long liquidations, but QCP Capital analysts described the deleveraging as orderly compared with previous episodes earlier this year.

The analysts added that options markets showed a brief spike in short-term volatility, though positioning suggests traders were prepared for weekend risk.

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“If we recall the previous U.S. strike on Iran last June (also a weekend), BTC broke below $100,000 as the news broke only to trade back above on Monday, and subsequently rallied to a high of $123k a few weeks later,” QCP Capital analysts wrote. “While the scale of this attack is far greater than last year’s, price action could be hinting at early signs of history repeating itself.”

Options flows show buyers are positioning themselves for a potential rally beyond the $70,000 mark. That suggests investors are looking for a rebound this month after the market’s severe downturn.

The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the standoff, with conflicting statements from Iranian and U.S. officials over whether the waterway is closed. U.S. President Donald Trump has said the war is expected to last “four to five weeks.” Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

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What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Crypto
    • March 3: SolCex mobile app to launch on Google Play and Apple’s App Store.
  • Macro
    • March 3, 5:00 a.m.: Eurozone inflation rate YoY flash for February (Prev. 1.7%); Core YoY (Prev. 2.2%)
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • March 3: Antalpha Platform Holdings (ANTA), pre-market, $0.19

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Governance votes & calls
    • ShapeShift DAO is voting to appoint PTT as the Tokenomics Workstream Leader for a 6-month term, compensated entirely in FOX tokens to eliminate stablecoin costs. Voting ends March 3.
    • Decentraland DAO is voting to explore the automatic execution of approved proposals and soft term limits for signer keys while maintaining emergency oversight. Voting ends March 3.
  • Unlocks
  • Token Launches

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 3% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $66,918.56 (24hrs: +0.57%)
  • ETH is down 4.04% at $1,959.34 (24hrs: unchanged)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 3.45% at 1,927.49 (24hrs: +0.59%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 2.86%
  • BTC funding rate is at -0.0009% (-1.0162% annualized) on Binance
CoinDesk 20 members’ performance
  • DXY is up 0.89% at 99.25
  • Gold futures are down 0.30% at $5,278.60
  • Silver futures are down 4.65% at $84.18
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 3.06% at 56,279.05
  • Hang Seng closed down 1.12% at 25,768.08
  • FTSE 100 is down 2.76% at 10,478.54
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 3.49% at 5,777.18
  • DJIA closed on Monday down 0.15% at 48,904.78
  • S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,881.62
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.36% at 22,748.86
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.59% at 34,541.30
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.82% at 3,741.78
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 9 bps at 4.05%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.83% at 6,762.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 2.30% at 24,448.00
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1.74% at 48,104.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.81%
  • Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.029284
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 977 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $29.14
  • Total Fees: 2.65 BTC / $179,647
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 104,220 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 15.8 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.46%

Technical Analysis

TA for March 3
  • BTC/USD weekly remains technically constrained below the 200-week EMA, with a weekly relative strength index (RSI) of 27.89 and a lack of bullish divergence confirming a sideways grind between $65,000 and $70,000.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $185.24 (+5.34%), –5.64% at $174.80 in pre-market
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.73 (+5.54%), –5.66% at $20.50
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.45 (+5.70%), –4.97% at $8.98
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.43 (+0.86%), –5.11% at $15.59
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.49 (–2.83%), –3.76% at $15.87
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.55 (+6.03%), –4.83% at $10.04
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.47 (+2.65%)
  • CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.43 (+1.38%), –4.23% at $38.72
  • Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $96.14 (+15.22%), –6.57% at $89.82
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $33.81 (+7.71%), –2.69% at $32.90

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $137.65 (+6.29%), –4.42% at $131.56
  • Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $8.73 (+9.95%), –4.24% at $8.36
  • Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.39 (+8.36%), –5.41% at $6.99
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.88 (+32.73%)
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $458.2 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $55.24 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.27 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $38.7 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.67 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 5.67 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

Japan prime minister Sanae Takaichi disavows Solana meme coin after it crashes by 75% (CoinDesk): Japan’s prime minister says she has no knowledge of or involvement in a Solana-based meme token that briefly reached a $27.7 million market cap before tumbling.

Iran war live: Israel strikes Tehran and Beirut; drones hit US embassy in Riyadh (Reuters): Explosions tore through Tehran and Beirut and financial markets worldwide crumbled at the prospect of prolonged disruption to global energy supplies from U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran.

U.S. closes 2 Gulf embassies as Iran steps up retaliation (The New York Times): The U.S. closed its embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait after drone attacks and urged Americans to depart immediately from 14 Middle East countries, as Iran expanded its retaliatory strikes.

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Dow futures fall; oil prices rise (The Wall Street Journal): Futures for the three main U.S. indexes dropped at least 1.4%. Stocks in Europe and Asia skidded, and oil prices rose, as the Middle East conflict showed signs of escalating on its fourth day.

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Crypto World

Ansem Says Ethereum Is in a Worse Spot Than 2023 as Thesis Weakens

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Ethereum Price Prediction

Crypto analyst Ansem argues that Ethereum (ETH) is in a “worse spot” in 2026 than it was in 2023, pointing to a thesis he says has been eroding for years.

His bearish take drew rebuttals from some members of the community. Meanwhile, on-chain activity and technical indicators elsewhere on the network flash bullish signals.

Ansem Lists Cracks in the ETH Thesis

Ansem argues that Solana (SOL) has dominated retail activity this cycle. Hyperliquid has taken the lead in perpetual futures trading, while rollups have failed to gain traction.

He also noted that Vitalik Buterin “publicly abandoned” the general-use rollup thesis. The ongoing Aave (AAVE) situation around the KelpDAO rsETH exploit, Ansem said, is a mark on  Ethereum’s core value proposition of “safety + security of defi & insto interest.

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“ETH thesis has been weakening consistently for years,” the analyst wrote. ETH in 2026 is in a worse spot than it was in 2023, amplified by AI doing extremely well & tech stocks being much more favorable investments with real revenues / emerging narratives / increasing momentum, ETH is a $300B asset with a ton of overhang from Tom Lee topblasting + complacent ETH holders sitting idle in defi protocols.”

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Technically, the analyst noted that ETH remains in a sustained downtrend after failing to break multi-year resistance. He projected that the second-largest cryptocurrency could slip to 2025 lows near $1,300 and to the bear-market lows from 2022.

“Tight invalidation 2377 assuming problems worsen if you want to play it loose assuming other risk assets continues doing well & drags it up probably somewhere around 2700/2800 invalidation fundamentals wise would want to see breakout activity from some new vertical,” the post read.

Ethereum Price Prediction
Ethereum Price Prediction. Source: X/Ansem

Community Members Push Back

The take triggered notable pushback. Ryan Berckmans accused Ansem of not understanding fundamentals. Leo Lanza went further, sharply dismissing the analyst’s bearish case on X.

Another user pointed to a 56% drop in the SOL/ETH pair this cycle.

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“Soleth is down 56% after being up 12x+ *this cycle* because one guy decided to buy 5% of the eth supply after it had underperformed all cycle. idk why you guys act like i dont also bearpost solana i havent posted anything bullish about sol in over a year,” Ansem replied.

Not everyone shares the bearish view on Ethereum. BeInCrypto recently highlighted that network activity remains strong, while technical indicators like the Rainbow Chart and MACD are also flashing bullish signals.

With macro and geopolitical uncertainty still in play, the question is whether ETH slides further this year or stages a renewed rally.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch leaders and journalists provide expert insights

The post Ansem Says Ethereum Is in a Worse Spot Than 2023 as Thesis Weakens appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

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Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

Total value locked on decentralized lending protocol Aave dropped by nearly $8 billion over the weekend after hackers behind the $293 million Kelp DAO exploit borrowed funds on Aave, leaving roughly $195 million in “bad debt” on the protocol and triggering withdrawals.

Data from DeFiLlama shows that Aave’s TVL fell from about $26.4 billion to $18.6 billion by Sunday, losing the top spot as the largest DeFi protocol. 

Aave v3’s lending pools for USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC) are now at 100% utilization, meaning that more than $5.1 billion worth of stablecoins cannot be withdrawn until new liquidity arrives or borrows are repaid. 

$2,540 is available to be withdrawn from the $2.87 billion USDT pool on Aave v3 at the time of writing. Source: Aave

Aave’s TVL fall shows how rapidly risk from a single security incident can spread throughout the broader, interconnected DeFi lending market, potentially leading to a severe liquidity crisis.

The incident began on Saturday when hackers stole 116,500 Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (rsETH) tokens worth about $293 million from Kelp DAO’s LayerZero-powered bridge and used them as collateral on Aave v3 to borrow wrapped Ether (wETH).

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Crypto analytics platform Lookonchain said the move created about $195 million in “bad debt” on Aave, which contributed to the Aave (AAVE) token tanking nearly 20% from $112 on Saturday at 6:00 pm UTC to $89.5 about 25 hours later. 

Lookonchain noted that some of the largest crypto whales to withdraw funds from Aave were the MEXC crypto exchange and Abraxas Capital at $431 million and $392 million, respectively.

Source: Grvt

Several crypto networks and protocols tied to rsETH or the LayerZero bridge have paused use of the bridge until the problem is resolved, including DeFi platform Curve Finance, stablecoin issuer Ethena and BitGo’s Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC).

Aave has frozen several rsETH, wETH markets

Shortly after the Kelp DAO exploit, Aave said it froze the rsETH markets on both Aave v3 and v4 to prevent any suspicious borrowing and later stated that rsETH on Ethereum mainnet remains fully backed by underlying assets.

WETH reserves also remain frozen on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, Mantle and Linea, Aave said.

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This incident marks the first significant stress test of Aave’s “Umbrella” security model, which was introduced in June 2025 to provide automated protection against protocol bad debt while enabling users to earn rewards.

Related: Aave DAO backs V4 mainnet plan in near-unanimous vote

Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada found that Aave avoided bad debt in its v3 market by using overcollateralization, automated liquidations and other strategies that shifted risk to borrowers.

In comments to Cointelegraph, Aave defended its liquidation-based model, framing it as a core safety mechanism that protects lenders while limiting downside for borrowers.

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It comes as Aave parted ways with its longest-standing DeFi risk service provider, Chaos Labs, on April 6, following disagreements over the direction of Aave v4 and budget constraints.

Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?