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Dollar surge pressures crypto and gold after escalation in Iran conflict: Crypto Markets Today

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Management wins board approval to sell BTC

The crypto market, U.S. equities and precious metals all tumbled on Tuesday as the dollar index (DXY) rose by 0.5% since midnight UTC to its highest level since Jan. 19.

The risk-off sentiment comes after escalation in the conflict in Iran, with Israel launching fresh strikes on Tehran and Beirut while the U.S. embassy in Riyadh was hit by two Iranian drones.

Gold hit a one-month high of $5,410 on Monday but fell back to $5,260 on Tuesday as investors opt for the dollar as a safe haven.

Bitcoin has been largely correlated with gold this week; rallying on Monday to $70,000 before reverting back to $66,500 – firmly in the middle of a range it has occupied since early February.

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The altcoin market fared worse than bitcoin, with the likes of ADA, ZEC and DASH losing upwards of 4% since midnight UTC.

Derivatives positioning

  • Market dynamics have transitioned into a consolidation phase, with BTC futures open Interest stabilizing at $15.3 billion as the post-leverage cleanup reaches equilibrium. Retail sentiment remains cautiously bullish with funding rates ranging from 0% to 10%, while institutional conviction has softened slightly, marked by the 3-month annualized basis dipping just below 3%. This suggests a firm market floor but a temporary plateau in upside momentum.
  • The options market has shifted from “panic-hedging” to sustained bullishness, with 24 hour call volume surging to a 63/37 split. The 1-week 25-delta skew has cooled to 14% (down from 27%), signaling a sharp drop in the cost of downside protection. Crucially, the implied volatility (IV) term structure has moved into contango, as front-end premiums collapse below the stable 49%–50% seen in longer-dated tenors, indicating that immediate fear has been replaced by mid-term growth expectations.
  • Coinglass data shows $392 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 50-50 split between longs and shorts. BTC ($163 million), ETH ($96 million) and Others ($20 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $69,800 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.

Token talk

  • CoinDesk’s Memecoin (CDMEME) and DeFi Select (DFX) Indices are the best performing benchmarks over the past 24 hours, rising 0.95% and 0.71% respectively.
  • AI token NEAR bounced back from oversold conditions with a 13.3% move to the upside on Tuesday, indicating that portions of the altcoin market remained coiled ready to spring to the upside.
  • Broadly, however, the altcoin market remains in a consolidation phase as a part of a downtrend dating back to October. Over the past week the likes of PEPE, ATOM, SHIB and BCH have all lost double digits despite bitcoin remaining in the middle of its trading range.
  • DeFi tokens JUP and MORPHO bucked the consolidation trend, rising by 23% and 20% respectively over the past week with continuation to the upside on Tuesday.

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Crypto World

Ansem Says Ethereum Is in a Worse Spot Than 2023 as Thesis Weakens

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Ethereum Price Prediction

Crypto analyst Ansem argues that Ethereum (ETH) is in a “worse spot” in 2026 than it was in 2023, pointing to a thesis he says has been eroding for years.

His bearish take drew rebuttals from some members of the community. Meanwhile, on-chain activity and technical indicators elsewhere on the network flash bullish signals.

Ansem Lists Cracks in the ETH Thesis

Ansem argues that Solana (SOL) has dominated retail activity this cycle. Hyperliquid has taken the lead in perpetual futures trading, while rollups have failed to gain traction.

He also noted that Vitalik Buterin “publicly abandoned” the general-use rollup thesis. The ongoing Aave (AAVE) situation around the KelpDAO rsETH exploit, Ansem said, is a mark on  Ethereum’s core value proposition of “safety + security of defi & insto interest.

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“ETH thesis has been weakening consistently for years,” the analyst wrote. ETH in 2026 is in a worse spot than it was in 2023, amplified by AI doing extremely well & tech stocks being much more favorable investments with real revenues / emerging narratives / increasing momentum, ETH is a $300B asset with a ton of overhang from Tom Lee topblasting + complacent ETH holders sitting idle in defi protocols.”

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Technically, the analyst noted that ETH remains in a sustained downtrend after failing to break multi-year resistance. He projected that the second-largest cryptocurrency could slip to 2025 lows near $1,300 and to the bear-market lows from 2022.

“Tight invalidation 2377 assuming problems worsen if you want to play it loose assuming other risk assets continues doing well & drags it up probably somewhere around 2700/2800 invalidation fundamentals wise would want to see breakout activity from some new vertical,” the post read.

Ethereum Price Prediction
Ethereum Price Prediction. Source: X/Ansem

Community Members Push Back

The take triggered notable pushback. Ryan Berckmans accused Ansem of not understanding fundamentals. Leo Lanza went further, sharply dismissing the analyst’s bearish case on X.

Another user pointed to a 56% drop in the SOL/ETH pair this cycle.

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“Soleth is down 56% after being up 12x+ *this cycle* because one guy decided to buy 5% of the eth supply after it had underperformed all cycle. idk why you guys act like i dont also bearpost solana i havent posted anything bullish about sol in over a year,” Ansem replied.

Not everyone shares the bearish view on Ethereum. BeInCrypto recently highlighted that network activity remains strong, while technical indicators like the Rainbow Chart and MACD are also flashing bullish signals.

With macro and geopolitical uncertainty still in play, the question is whether ETH slides further this year or stages a renewed rally.

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The post Ansem Says Ethereum Is in a Worse Spot Than 2023 as Thesis Weakens appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

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Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

Total value locked on decentralized lending protocol Aave dropped by nearly $8 billion over the weekend after hackers behind the $293 million Kelp DAO exploit borrowed funds on Aave, leaving roughly $195 million in “bad debt” on the protocol and triggering withdrawals.

Data from DeFiLlama shows that Aave’s TVL fell from about $26.4 billion to $18.6 billion by Sunday, losing the top spot as the largest DeFi protocol. 

Aave v3’s lending pools for USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC) are now at 100% utilization, meaning that more than $5.1 billion worth of stablecoins cannot be withdrawn until new liquidity arrives or borrows are repaid. 

$2,540 is available to be withdrawn from the $2.87 billion USDT pool on Aave v3 at the time of writing. Source: Aave

Aave’s TVL fall shows how rapidly risk from a single security incident can spread throughout the broader, interconnected DeFi lending market, potentially leading to a severe liquidity crisis.

The incident began on Saturday when hackers stole 116,500 Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (rsETH) tokens worth about $293 million from Kelp DAO’s LayerZero-powered bridge and used them as collateral on Aave v3 to borrow wrapped Ether (wETH).

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Crypto analytics platform Lookonchain said the move created about $195 million in “bad debt” on Aave, which contributed to the Aave (AAVE) token tanking nearly 20% from $112 on Saturday at 6:00 pm UTC to $89.5 about 25 hours later. 

Lookonchain noted that some of the largest crypto whales to withdraw funds from Aave were the MEXC crypto exchange and Abraxas Capital at $431 million and $392 million, respectively.

Source: Grvt

Several crypto networks and protocols tied to rsETH or the LayerZero bridge have paused use of the bridge until the problem is resolved, including DeFi platform Curve Finance, stablecoin issuer Ethena and BitGo’s Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC).

Aave has frozen several rsETH, wETH markets

Shortly after the Kelp DAO exploit, Aave said it froze the rsETH markets on both Aave v3 and v4 to prevent any suspicious borrowing and later stated that rsETH on Ethereum mainnet remains fully backed by underlying assets.

WETH reserves also remain frozen on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, Mantle and Linea, Aave said.

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This incident marks the first significant stress test of Aave’s “Umbrella” security model, which was introduced in June 2025 to provide automated protection against protocol bad debt while enabling users to earn rewards.

Related: Aave DAO backs V4 mainnet plan in near-unanimous vote

Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada found that Aave avoided bad debt in its v3 market by using overcollateralization, automated liquidations and other strategies that shifted risk to borrowers.

In comments to Cointelegraph, Aave defended its liquidation-based model, framing it as a core safety mechanism that protects lenders while limiting downside for borrowers.

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It comes as Aave parted ways with its longest-standing DeFi risk service provider, Chaos Labs, on April 6, following disagreements over the direction of Aave v4 and budget constraints.

Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?